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Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
“Towns Mean Business”
18:00 – 19:30
Wednesday, 7th December 2016
Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5
CPG Secretariat
Refreshments supported by:
Scottish Retail Consortium
Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
“Ideal Retail Mix”
December 2016
Keith Hargest
Hargest Planning Ltd
Shopping as an activity…
‘ “I have heard,” said Defoe, still obviously shocked
by the practice, “that some ladies, and these too,
persons of good note, have taken their coaches
and spent a whole afternoon in Ludgate Street or
Covent Garden, only to divert themselves in going
from one mercers shop to another, to look upon
their fine silks and to rattle and banter the
shopkeepers...”’
From Daniel Defoe “The Complete English Tradesman” 1726 (quoted by Lewis
Mumford (The City in History)
Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
December 2016
Long Term Factors
• Resale Price Maintenance Act 1964
• Increased accessibility and reduce cost of travel
(time and money)
• Internet based retail
Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
December 2016
Numbers of Retail Units –
Large Town Centres
Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
December 2016
Changes to the Retail Mix
• Total numbers of retail goods and retail service
units is broadly constant
• Comparison goods shops declined in numbers
• Retail service units have grown significantly
• Vacancies have, in long term, remained broadly
constant
Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
December 2016
Largest City & Town Centres
• Glasgow: decline retail goods units but growth in
services
• Edinburgh: from 1985 decline in retail goods units but
growth in sales area; growth in services
• Aberdeen from 2003: retail goods shops marginal
decline, growth in net sales; growth in service units;
vacancies constant
• Dundee: decline in retail goods floorspace (esp
comparison); total numbers of retail goods and service
units remained same since 2005
Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
December 2016
Retail Expenditure Per Capita -
Constant and Actual Prices
Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
December 2016
Implications
• Continuation of trends
• Uncertainties – internet growth; Brexit etc
• Continued loss of retail goods shops and
floorspace from small/medium town centres
• Continued growth of retail services – become
principal commercial activity in small- medium
town centres
• Larger centres: market concentration here, less
units, but more floorspace and turnover
Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
December 2016
Retail Offer –
Small/Medium Town Centres
• P rice – difficult to compete
• Q uality – potential to be sensitive to local market
• R ange – difficult to compete
• S ervice – greatest potential for small/medium
Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
December 2016
Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
“Towns Mean Business”
18:00 – 19:30
Wednesday, 7th December 2016
Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5
CPG Secretariat
Refreshments supported by:
Scottish Retail Consortium
GET IN TOUCH
T 0141 221 0775
W fsb.org.uk/scot
Presentation Title. A presentation by Fiona Smith for [enter name/company]
Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
“Towns Mean Business”
18:00 – 19:30
Wednesday, 7th December 2016
Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5
CPG Secretariat
Refreshments supported by:
Scottish Retail Consortium
Retail, High Streets, and
Transformational Change
Presentation to the Cross Party Group on Town Centres
Ewan MacDonald-Russell – SRC Head of Policy & External Affairs
Scottish Retail ConsortiumRepresenting 255 brands including:
What’s Happening in Scottish Retail?
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2013
2014
2015
2016
% c
han
ge y
ear-
on
year
SCOTLAND 3M ROLLING AVERAGE GROWTH
OVER FIVE YEARS
Total Sales LFL sales
• Sales:• Oct 1.6%• 3 Month: -1.0 %
• Vacancy Rate: • Oct 9.2 % • July 7.5 %
• October Footfall: • 3 Month: 0.3 %• 12 Month: -1.4 %
SRC-Springboard Footfall and Vacancies
Monitor
Source: SRC/Springboard
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Feb
-13
Ap
r-13
Jun
-13
Au
g-1
3
Oct
-13
Dec-
13
Feb
-14
Ap
r-14
Jun
-14
Au
g-1
4
Oct
-14
Dec-
14
Feb
-15
Ap
r-15
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
Oct
-15
Dec-
15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-16
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
% c
han
ge y
ear-
on
-year
Footfall
Scotland UK
SRC-Springboard Footfall and Vacancies
Monitor
Source: SRC/Springboard
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-13
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Vaca
ncy
Rate
(%
)
BRC-Springboard Vacancy Rates
Scotland UK
Shop prices have fallen for
43 months.
November SPI: -1.7 %
Driven by low commodity
prices and fierce
competition.
Underlying pressures could
cause challenges. -4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
Sep
-11
Mar-
12
Sep
-12
Mar-
13
Sep
-13
Mar-
14
Sep
-14
Mar-
15
Sep
-15
Mar-
16
Sep
-16
% c
han
ge y
ear-
on
-year
All Items Food Non-food
Shop Price index inflation (Y-o-y changes in prices)
Source: BRC-Nielsen Shop Prices Index
What’s happening to Shop Prices?
• The shift to shopping online continues apace
• Internet sales totalled £43bn in 2015.
• The challenge facing retailers is in investing to create a seamless multichannel proposition
• On average, people are taking fewer shopping trips but are prepared to travel further to make it a day out.
• The immediacy of online shopping and the rapid advancement in supply chain technology means products are easily available at short notice.
• That has led to a decreasing tendency among shoppers to buy well in advance or to plan for new season or events
Online non-food sales
now around 22%, 12 month average
growth is 10.8%. Online food sales has
proved more challenging,
so overall online
penetration is around
15%.
Online shopping is
increasingly being done
through mobile phones,
rather than desktop.
More than 50% of hits
on retailers’ websites are
from mobile phones.
How are people shopping?
What effect is public policy having?
• Customers spending is crucial for retailers: Therefore costs to customers are a priority.
• Government Policy is increasing the cost of people and property:
• Business Rates and the Large Business Supplement
• Apprenticeship Levy• Costs of Employment
• Future Issues• Brexit• Productivity and Innovation
Final Thoughts
• Retail Industry is going through enormous change• Trading conditions are very competitive• Economic challenges ahead in 2017• High Streets will change significantly as a consequence• Public policy needs to evolve in response to these pressures
Cross Party Group on Towns and Town Centres
“Towns Mean Business”
18:00 – 19:30
Wednesday, 7th December 2016
Scottish Parliament, Committee Room 5
CPG Secretariat
Refreshments supported by:
Scottish Retail Consortium
Alexander Nicoll Corporate Responsibility Director Intu Properties Plc
Shopping Centres: Working Together with Communities and Town Centres