crop and tree species diversification for climate risk management
TRANSCRIPT
Crop and tree species diversification for
climate risk management Maarten van Zonneveld, PhD
2 October 2013
Agriculture, food security and climate change
• 100 % increase in food production to feed 9 billion people
in 2050
• Climate change threats agricultural production
• Smallholders are the principal agents of agricultural
production
• Climate change impacts for smallholders are difficult to
predict
• Agriculture is a risky business and becomes more risky
under climate change
Hardaker et al. 2004; Morton 2007; Godfray et al. 2010; Lobell et al. 2011
Crop and tree diversification as climate risk
management strategy
Cultivation of a portfolio of cultivated crops and trees
reduces risk:
• Sum of risks is less than individual crop risks
• Production stabilization and optimization
Diversification for climate change adaptation at
different geographic scales Farm level: -Risk management -Microclimate improvement
Landscape level: -Reduced pressure of pest and diseases -Topoclimate regulation
Administrative unit level: -Risk reduction for financial investment
Targeting interventions for climate adaptation
Switch crops Diversification to create
option value
Diversification to manage risk Diversification to create
option value and manage risk
Switch crops and/or shift
livelihoods Off-farm diversification
Optimal production conditions
Marginal production conditions
High climate uncertainty
Low climate uncertainty
Crop diversification portfolio
Low risk - strategic advantage
High risk - maintain competitiveness
Food security and commodity crops
Climate vulnerable crops
Crops for the future
High-value crops
Photo credits: www.greatdreams.com, wikipedia
Low risk - maintain competitiveness
High risk - strategic advantage
Crop introduction
Non traditional export high value crops &
Photo credits: wikipedia
Under-researched crops
Diversity within crops: rescue and promotion of
native Capsicum peppers in the Andes
Understand and
conserve diversity
Identify promising
material
Identify markets and
understand value chains
Multi-stakeholder
platforms
Good agricultural
practices and postharvesting
Farmers may have several disincentives to
diversify for climate change adaptation
• Other risk reducing mechanisms in place: crop insurance
• Short-term investment costs for long-term benefits
• Non-climate related risks
• Economy of scale favors specialization
• No seed material
• Others
Need for diversification planning tools that take in account farmers´
interest in different aspects and input from multiple stakeholders
Bradshaw et al. (2004)
Topics of action & research interest
Development of diversification strategies with
communities and relevant stakeholders
Photo credits: Marcela Beltran; www.tennessean.com; www.someusefulinfo.com; wikipedia; fao
Participatory mapping of climate vulnerability and opportunities
Identify suitable crops under current and future conditions
Diversification strategies under different future scenarios
Market risks and info
1 2
3 4 Functional diversity
Check seed availability
Introduction of cheap climate monitoring technology
Institutionalization of diversification strategies
Reduced risks should stimulate investment in
smallholder agriculture
• Collaboration with national and local
governmental bodies
• Financial products
• Innovation funds
Photo credit: www.123rf.com
Diversification policies
Diversification at landscape level for climate
change adaptation
Diversification at landscape level for climate
change adaptation
What are optimal landscape structures to regulate
topoclimates?
How does diversification at landscape level affect pest
and disease pressure and its biological control?
Summary: principal action and research interest
1. Development of crop and tree species
diversification strategies with communities and
relevant stakeholders
2. Institutionalization of diversification plans
3. Diversification at landscape level
