Critical ThinkingPreparing Society’s Decision Makers

13th Annual Emergency ManagementHigher Education Conference

June 7-10, 2010

®

James M McCarty, Assistant DeanThomas Edison State Collegejmccarty@tesc.edu

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“Failure of Imagination”

“The most important failure was one of imagination. We do not believe leaders understood the gravity of the threat.”

(911 Report, July 2004)

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Untested Assumptions

“This failure was in large part the result of analytical shortcomings; intelligence analysts were too wedded to

their assumptions about Saddam’s intentions.” (my emphasis)

This commission addressed the apparent intelligence failures that led the United States to invade Iraq, when in actuality, no such weapons or weapons programs existed.

(Commissionon the Intelligence Capabilities of the

United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction ,March, 2005)

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Are we preparing Emergency Managers to actively employ the principles of critical Thinking

and decision making to their responsibilities?

Is “conventional wisdom” always wise?

What role does self awareness, imagination, testing our assumptions and asking the right questions have in emergency management?

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Critical Thinking (Thinking About How We Think)

"Criticism is the examination and test of propositions of any kind which are offered for acceptance, in order to find out whether they correspond to reality or not… The critical faculty is a product of education and training… It is a mental habit and power. It is our only guarantee against delusion, deception, superstition, and misapprehension of ourselves and our earthly circumstances.” (W.G. Sumner 1906)

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Humans are Lazy Thinkers- we tend to seek patterns that are simpleand that make immediate sense… and make us comfortable.

•We “generalize” and “assume”.

•We avoid challenging our existing beliefs and assumptions.

•We make decisions based on “conventional wisdom”

•We avoid creativity and imagination (too risky ?)

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Theoretical vs. Applied Critical Thinking

Is CT both reflective (passive) & engaging (active)?

Does reflective thought have a place in Emergency Management?

CT is “scalable”. We can use it within seconds…or months

Critical Thinking… without decision making. It may be just another intellectual exercise ?

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OverviewElements of Critical Thinking

•Perceptions•Assumptions•Fallacy•Argument•Logic•Emotion•Decision Making (problem solving ?)

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Perceptions

• We all see things differently…we filter out some bits of information…based on our experience, culture, gender, etc. This is normal…and actually …necessary. Too much information can muddle our thinking….right ?

• Of course the danger is…what are we filtering ? What biases have we acquired over the years ?

• Have we checked on (questioned?) the validity of our long standing beliefs ?

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These are just a few examples of how we filter information about our environment based on perceptions, biases, generalizations and assumptions.

By questioning even our most dearly held notions and beliefs, we avoid bad decisions and can save lives.

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Assumptions

• An assumption is a "generalization" about something or someone...based on our perception of our world These are our personal belief systems…our values…opinions that we take for granted.

• But…we need to make assumptions in order to function, don’t we ?

• What if those assumptions are based on perceptions that are not valid…then how good is our decision making?

• Again…have we questioned our own assumptions ? Values ? Beliefs ? Are they still accurate ?

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Fallacy

• A fallacy is really an incorrect pattern of reasoning. In a statement…written or oral…we must search for true premises or reasons (evidence?)…search for a valid argument or claim…and search to see if there is enough reliable information there for a reasonable person to conclude that this is a true statement.

 • We see examples of this in today's marketing &

advertising strategies.

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Fallacy Continued

• "3 out of 4 doctors recommend Bayer aspirin". Look closely at the claim. Do they mean that 75% of all doctors agree ? or could it mean that they found a group of 4 doctors ….from many groups of 4 …that agree about Bayer.

• Ask some questions….what kind of doctors were polled ? Were they MDs ? or maybe witch “doctors”?…We can't tell from the claim being made.

 • Another is the appeal to authority…such as the actor

who plays a doctor on TV who does a commercial for a medical product. They want you to associate the role he plays with a real doctor, so that you will believe the claim he/she is making.

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Argument

• An argument, in this context…is NOT a dispute or a disagreement.

• An argument is actually a claim of some sort; a claim that something is true and subject to agreement or rejection.

• This applies to emergency situations when emergency managers evaluate incoming information and are asked to decide something based on a variety of information sources.

 

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Argument Continued

So…we might express it this way.

Claim + Reasons (premises) = Argument

• So why do we care about all this ? 

• When we listen to someone…or read their words…we must search for the claim being made & then for the supporting premises or reasons why we should believe the claim…before we accept that claim to be true.

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LogicDeductive and Inductive Reasoning

 

• We file away all our observations and perceptions from our childhood to adulthood in our brains, like a computer.

• These judgments (assumptions?) spring from a lifetime of observing, learning in school, our parents influences…our peers, etc. Those judgments or conclusions are the result of what we call "Inductive" reasoning.

 • After several of these experiences of common

observations, learning, etc…. we then begin to predict what will happen every time we experience the same set of circumstances. This is called "Deductive" reasoning.

 

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Logic Continued• This is the natural pattern of all thinking. First

comes the Inductive part…then we evolve that into the Deductive part. Of course this thinking is where we create assumptions.

• The critical thinker must recognize that if either reasoning…inductive or deductive…is flawed, then…the assumptions we hold dear to our hearts may also be flawed.

• We must also look for, and question these kinds of reasoning patterns in others to be sure that their claim, or pattern of thinking is valid.

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Emotion

• We normally think that we should eliminate emotion from our decision making. But…maybe we need to recognize that emotion is part of the communication & thinking process…and how can we ignore it ?

• How many of us made the decision to marry without emotion playing a role ? How about the woman who is deciding whether to abort a pregnancy ?

• Keep this in mind…not just for others, but the role emotion may play in your own thinking.

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Decision Making

Decision Making is the action side of the CT equation.

A typical decision making methodology:

• Define issue or “frame problem”• Gather information• Identify possible options, alternatives• Select one or range of alternatives• Implement• Monitor• Adjust

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Decision Making

Question…

1.Five frogs are sitting on a log. 2.Four decide to jump off.3.How many are left?4.Answer: ?

Why?

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Because there’s a difference between deciding and doing.”(MARK L. FELDMAN and MICHAEL F. SPRATT)

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Conclusions

Critical Thinking cannot be learned overnight & cannot be successfullyapplied by learning “about” it.

We need to successfully apply critical thinking to see the benefits andbe able to transfer those benefits to real world situations.

We must “practice” critical thinking; we can improve our skills.

We begin by thinking about how we think…asking the right questions,challenging ourselves and others, stay open to creativity, scrutinize conventional wisdom…

Then….deciding.

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Institutional Outcomes Assessment

How do we measure ?

• Formal Course in Critical Thinking ?• Standardized Testing ?• Embedded Assessments thoughout the

curriculum?

Triangulation strategy of assessment

HLS-355 Critical Thinking for Homeland Security(Bachelor of Science, Homeland Security and Emergency

Preparedness)

Background of degree & concept

Nature of the course

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Embedded Throughout Curriculum

Design embedded critical thinking opportunities throughout the curriculum.

Do you see any opportunities to design your core courses with CT at their essence ?

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Questions and Suggestions