Crisis

Senator, soon to be President,

Kennedy said this quote in a speech in

Indianapolis in April of 1959. To

Westerners, this maybe exemplifies

the ancient wisdom of the East and is

cited frequently by motivational

speakers, self-help books and so

on. Another variation of that quote is

often used, “A crisis provides an

opportunity for change and growth as

well as a danger

of regression or stagnation,” and maybe that's where you heard it first. Many

linguists consider JFK’s comments to be in error, a poor translation, but, no matter,

his words have become what we believe.

There is danger and opportunity when evaluating Emerging Markets (EM) and their

contagious impact on the rest of the world in 2014. While today EM is only 13% of

Global Market Indices, Emerging Markets have 80% of the world’s population, over

30% of the globe’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and all of the world’s excess

growth promise. EM nations are primary exporters of commodities to the world and

key consumers of multiple products from the Developed World.

The Danger (in the short run). The EM is a diverse set of countries and many

have been in the news recently, not for the best of reasons. Brazil, Indonesia,

India, South Africa and Turkey have endured two bouts of capital flight that rocked

global markets in May of 2013 and last month. These nations face difficult

decisions; they must reduce their imports, raise their interest rates and attempt to

hold down inflation during election years. Whoa, Nellie. The prognosis is not

assured. China, so vast that it is simultaneously an emerging market and the

world’s second largest economy, is attempting to manage, through statecraft, a

migration from a manufacturing oriented nation to one driven primarily by

consumption. This is an onerous task that can be done albeit at China’s pace. We

should cry for Argentina because sometimes poor political decisions keep nations

among the emerging forever.

The Opportunity (in the longer run).Emerging markets are countries that are

restructuring their economies along market-oriented lines and offer a wealth of

opportunities in trade, technology transfers and foreign direct investment. The

graphs below show the opportunity.

Every one of the nations expected to have GDP growth rates well above average

are EM nations. Every one. Now, take a look at the chart of Total market over

GDP. The US, which was an EM in the late 19th century, has enjoyed excellent

growth in GDP and has earned a market value more than 100% of its GDP. Win

win. Some of the EM nations may forever be emerging, to be sure, but those that

can make it to Developed status have tremendous investment appeal and seem to

be well worth the risk. The potential return from well above growth rates in GDP

coupled with the chance of seeing market to GDP ratios improve from the 50% to

the 100% range is why we maintain our strategic position in the EM markets. The

Danger is why we are not recommending more. We will be reviewing this topic with

you in this space in the upcoming weeks. Stay tuned.

-Mike Weiner, Chief Investment Officer, Unified Trust Company

Check out this link for more information regarding who is an emerging market

https://www.emfunds.us.assetmanagement.hsbc.com/investing-in-emerging-

markets/map-at-night/default.fs

This report was prepared by Unified Trust Company, N.A. and reflects the current opinion of the authors. The sources and data upon which the report are based are believed to be accurate and reliable, but Unified Trust does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions contained herein, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, this report or its contents. The information, opinion, and forward looking statements in this report are subject to change and may be withdrawn without notice. Information may be available to Unified Trust or its affiliates that is not reflected in this report. This report is general in nature and is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. Speak with your Unified Trust representative concerning your personal situation. This report is for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment product. Before investing, it is important that you understand that investment products (including securities and mutual funds) and insurance products involve risk and may lose value. They are not FDIC insured or insured by any Federal government agency and are not deposits of, guaranteed or insured by Unified Trust. Diversification of your investments and allocation among different asset classes does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of loss of value of the assets, and past performance and economic data presented is historical, and is not a predictive or a guarantee of future results. Unified Trust does not provide tax, accounting or legal advice, and information presented about tax considerations is not intended as tax advice and should not be relied upon for the purpose of avoiding any tax penalties. Clients should always review any planned financial transaction(s) or arrangement(s) that may have tax, accounting or legal implications with their personal, non-Unified Trust tax and legal professional advisors.