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Geography and Development10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013

Received : 21/9/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012PP : 1- 5

The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Total Ozone Variations in Isfahan

Dr. Abbasali Arvin (Spanani)Assistant Professor of ClimatologyUniversity of Payame Noor

IntroductionThe ozone layer as a protective shield life on biosphere has very oscillations from view point of quantity and volume. The ozone gases in both troposphere and stratosphere layers have been affecting on human life by two ways. The ozone in stratospheric that its name is surface ozone is an extremely poisonous gases and has destructive affect on lung and plant tissue. The surface ozone has been measured in measurement pollutant stations as one of seven pollutant gases. The ozone gas in stratospheric layer unlike the surface ozone is very necessary for human and other organism lives. The stratospheric ozone is measured in meteorological stations by name of total ozone (TO). Studies show that amount of ozone in stratospheric layer has been reduced. Variations in ozone layer were effected of changing in solar radiation, volcano eruption cosmic dust, meteoric stones and etc. that those get name as natural parameter of ozone changes. Effect of natural parameter concentration on stratospheric ozone lead to fix ozone content in long term (spanani 2004). The amount of ozone in stratospheric layer particularly in the lower stratospheric has considerable oscillations (increase/decrease) under the affection of atmospheric activities . For example V. C. Roldugin (2000) showed that passing the wave crest in the pressure field ceases the convergence of ozone poor air under the tropopause and divergence of ozone rich air above the tropopause and decreases the ozone content. The passing of a wave through simulate the opposite process and increase the ozone content T. Narayana Rao at all (2003) opining that the climatology of ozone clearly shows a significant seasonal cycle with the ozone maxima changing with height. The monthly variability of ozone as well as its seasonal maximum is found near the tropopause. Variation in tropopause height is due mainly to the passage of tropospheric weather systems and is responsible for the large monthly variability of ozone near the tropopause. In the lower stratosphere, inter annual variations are at a maximum in winter and spring, and are the result of variations in wave driven stratospheric circulation, which peaks in winter. Regarding this matter that total ozone have been affected from atmospheric parameter in lower stratosphere or upper troposphere, we decide to study the role of pattern circulation on ozone variations in Isfahan.

Research Methodology

2 Geography and Development, 10nd Year, No.29, Winter 2013

In this research the environmental to circulation method has been used for synoptic patterns analysis. The mean daily of total ozone (TO) data related to Isfahan ozone survey center in the time period of 2005-2009 were used. From the total 1975 days, 174 days was missing value therefore the daily data of 1801 days (TO) have been used in analysis. The days that (TO) were under 250/above 310Du considered as min/max amount of ozone. The days that (TO) also was around the mean (284 Du) and had highest frequency (274 Du) had been used. Then mean daily of geo-potential height for 100, 300 and 500mb levels for distance of 0 to 80° east and 10° to 70° North was taken from the NCEP/NCAR climatic data center. The 100 and 300mb levels were selected for finding the trough or ridge affect and the 500mb to find the low height (low pressure) or high height (high pressure) have been selected to find atmospheric stability or instability affecting on ozone variation. Correlation methods and multiple liner regression have been used for relation analysis between TO maps and synoptic pattern maps. For this aim, mean daily data of total ozone for distance of geographical 10°*10° degree had been got from the total ozone spectrometer mapping center (NASSA/GSFC). Then the total ozone isolate maps were drawn for days that the total ozone is max, min or high frequency. Then by the use of correlation relation, the total daily amount of ozone and geo potential were analyzed.

Discussion and ResultsThe ozone variability depends on the atmospheric activity. Thus it is so variable in winter due to atmospheric instability, high contents in spring due to universal increasing, low variability caused by atmospheric stability in summer and low content cased by the global decrease of ozone in autumn. We review two periods (one of them related to minimum and another to maximum of total ozone (TO) content) of circulation patterns from the 21 periods. The maps of 8 to 10 December 2005 were analyzed as the minimum ozone indicates a stable and calm atmosphere on Iran. On December eighth, a ridge is entering in to Iran at elevation 100 & 300 mb, and includes the negative vortices and anticyclone. In this day the amount of ozone is 236 Du. At December ninth, the ridge pattern is at 100 and 300mb elevation and anticyclone condition , at 500mb elevation is placed on Iran completely and the content of total ozone has decreased to 222Du. Thus in time that ridge axes is at 100 and 300mb elevation and dynamic anticyclone at elevation 500mb is placed on Isfahan completely, the ozone poor air is transferred to Isfahan and the total ozone is decreased to the lowest amount. The maps of 30 March to 1 April 2009 are analyzed as the maximum pattern of TO. An instability atmospheric has overcome on Isfahan in this period. The trough pattern in 100mb and a completely cyclone typical in 500mb that deepens to 300mb level was on Iran that has caused the increase of TO to 349Du. The trough axes in 100mb level and very deep cyclone in 500mb to 300mb level has been set in center of Iran that the TO has increased to 371Du in day 31 March. Amount of 7.4 millimeter rainfall has been recorded in Isfahan meteorological station on 31March. Thus the relation between the daily maps of TO with the pattern of synoptic maps were analyzed through correlation relations. The analyses show that at he three levels of 100,300 and 500 mb , there are a significant inverse relation between TO and geo-potential height in 0.01 sig level. The most important effective variable in maximum occurrence time is the changes of 100mb level height and in mode occurrence and

The Relationship Between Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and …

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minimum amount of ozone is the changes of 300 mb level height . Relationship between geo-potential variation and TO content in upper level of troposphere (100 and 300mb) is stronger because density of ozone is higher under the tropopouse. Thus with increase/decrease of geo-potential height (high/low pressure conditions), the TO increase/ decrease simultaneously. Mass effect of three level balance on TO variability is surveyed by linear multiple regression method and show that geo-potential height affect on TO by correlation coefficient of R=0.994, R=0.885 and R=0.897 in order to mod, maximum and minimum of TO occurrences. Thus 89.1%, 80.5% and 78.4% of TO variations is explained by variability of geo-potential height in order mod, maximum and minimum of TO occurrences. Density of ozone iso-path in around of low pressure center in 500mb level show that the TO have been increased with the decrease of atmospheric pressure.

ConclusionOur research showed that a part of TO variation in Isfahan correlated with geo-potential height variations in troposphere layer. The occurrence of content min/max of TO has been adapted with ridge/trough pattern in 100 and 300mb levels and dynamic anticyclone/dynamic cyclone in 500mb level. The lowest/highest TO content occurred in time that ridge/trough axes taken place on Iran and Isfahan. TO oscillation is low in warm season and synoptic parameter affect on its variation is very low. Thus atmospheric instability ceased variety and oscillation of TO in cold season but atmospheric stability ceased to fix content of TO in warm season. There is a significant reverse correlation between geo-potential height and content of TO that this relation is stronger in upper level of troposphere.

Keywords: Isfahan, Total ozone (TO), Circulation patterns, Stratosphere, Multi variable linear regression.

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Magazine, No.11.2. Atayee, Hoshmand (2008). Identification and Analysis of Circular Patterns of ,Middle

atmosphere in Heavy precipitation Years of Iran, No.90.3. Alijani, Bohlool (2006). Synoptic climatology, Samt Publication, Tehran.4. Mahamed, Ahmad (1998), (1999). Ozone Layer (Shield of Life), Iran Research Group.5. Masoodian. A (2005). Thirty years ridge of circular patterns of Iran middle atmosphere,

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Rainy Region in Iran, Geographical Research, No. 90.8. Chandramadhab Pal (2010) Variability of total ozone over India and its adjoining regions during

1997-2008, Atmospheric Environment 44.9. E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, C. Schnadt, T. Egorova, M. Wild, A. Ohmura, V. Zubov, W.

Schmutz, Th. Peter (2005). Assessment of the ozone and temperature variability during 1979–1993 with the chemistry-climate model SOCOL, Advances in Space Research 35.


10. E. Rozanova, T. Egorovab, W. Schmutzb, Th. Peter (2006). Simulation of the stratospheric

ozone and temperature response to the solar irradiance variability during sun rotation cycle, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 68.

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21. Mohamed. A (1998). Ozone Layer (Shield of Life) Iran Research Grop. Tehran.22. Masoodian. A (2006). Synoptic Climatology and its Application in Environmental Studies,

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Winds of Bahman 1982 Sanandaj) Geographical Research, No. 90.24. Nasiri. B. Ghaemi. H (1999). Synoptic and Dynamic Patterns Analysis of Karkhe and Dez

Floods, Geographical Research, No. 54 & 55.25. N. Semane, V. H. Peuch, L. El Amraoui, H. Bencherif, S. Massart, D. Cariolle, Piotr V.

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28. Sophie Godin-Beekmann (2010). Spatial observation of the ozone layer Observation spatial de la couched ozone, C. R. Geosciences 342.

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Geography and Development

10nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013Received : 17/8/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012

PP : 6 - 9

Spatial Modeling of Annual Precipitation in Iran

Dr. Hossein AsakerehAssociate Professor of ClimatologyUniversity of Zanjan

Zohre SeifiPourM. Sc of ClimatologyUniversity of Zanjan

IntroductionDue to deep, complex and everlasting interaction between precipitation and climatic elements-factors, there are changes and varieties in both time and space dimensions of precipitation. So that climate experts and related scientists take their attentions to this phenomenon. An approach to do this kind of investigations is to describe spatial variations based on spatial statistics. The major spatial non-stationary of Iran precipitation is due to variation in situation, elevation and topography characters (slope and its direction) in this country. Circumstances of every one of these characters could determine the precipitation spatial patterns. Accordingly understanding spatial distribution of precipitation and its mechanism are important aspect in climatological researches. One of the common statistical models in which it is possible to determine the relation between variables as well as reconstruct, estimating and forecasting data is multivariate regression model. These sorts of models are useful for time series analyses as well as spatial modeling. One of the regression models that could be used in spatial analyses is called Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). In current study it will be attempted to introduce this approach and using General Regression (GR) to justify spatial variation of precipitation in Iran based on 1436 stations in Iran.

Research Methodology In this research Esfezary data base have been used. This daily data based contain 15998 days and 7187 pixels (15*15 KM) of precipitation over Iran. Accordingly the data matrix is created in 15998* 7187 and S-mode dimension. This matrix data base is estimated by using 1436 stations and Kriging method. To achieve independent variables, digital elevation map by 15*15 KM resolution has been created. So that, spatial (including longitude and latitude) and topographic (including slope magnitude and aspect) characters have been derived. Accordingly a data base has been created that contain spatial characters, topographic features and precipitation amounts.

The proper regression model on precipitation has been chosen based on spatial and topographical characters. Multivariate General Regression (MGR) for these m independent variables is defined as follow:


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Ri=b0+∑k=1

m

bk xk+εk

Where Ri is precipitation in a given pixel that depends on” m “climatic factors. Geographical Weighted Regression (GWR) allows local rather than global parameters to be estimated and the above model is rewritten as:

Ri=b0 (φi , λ i)+∑i=1

k

bk(φi , λi )x ik+εi

In geographically weighted regression, the parameter estimates are made using an approach in which the contribution of a sample to the analysis is weighted based on its spatial proximity to the specific location under consideration. Thus the weighting of an observation is no longer constant in the calibration but varies with different locations. Data from observations close to the location under consideration are weighted more than data from observations far away.In this paper spatial distribution of precipitation had been modeled using General Regression and Geographical Weighted Regression. Finally the most effective variables on precipitation have been clustered using Euclidean distance method and Ward clustering method.

Discussion and ResultsAnnual mean of Iran precipitation is about 256 mm. Spatial coefficient of variation of Iran precipitation is about 79%. Generally distribution of precipitation isohyets over Iran follows topographic features. The General Regression Model for precipitation is as follow:R=236 .6 s

47. 98+0 . 07a

7.67+0. 04 h

14 .14+0 .000007 φ

16 . 748−0. 00017 λ

−44 .863−1107 .819

r2=0 .48This model can justify about 48% of spatial distribution of precipitation.Using GWR model tends to different coefficients of spatial variables. Accordingly three regions have been denoted: The first region in which precipitation is affected by elevation. This region is about 43% out of the all area of the country that located in northwest, inner parts and southeast of Iran. Precipitation of second region is affected by hillside of mountains in west of country that covers 18% of Iran. The precipitation of third region that is about 39% of the country is determined by slope more than other factors. This region located in small parts of northwest, west and southeast of Iran.

ConclusionIn order to justifying spatial changes of precipitation over Iran, 1436 stations and GWR technique have been applied. Based on GWR model, elevation in northwest and inner parts of Iran, direction of slop in Zagros mountain chain and the slop in northeast and Caspian coast are the spatial factors that more controlling precipitation

Keywords: Cluster analyses, Spatial autocorrelation, Geographically weighted regression (GWR), Spatial Modeling.Refrences

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2. Alijani. B (2002). The Role of Statistics on Developing of Geography Science. The 6 th of

International Conference of Iran Statistic. Trbiat Modares University. Tehran. Iran.3. Alijani B (2008). Effect of Zagros Mountain on the Spatial Distribution of Precipitation,

Journal of Mountain Sciences, 5.4. Asakereh. H (2000). Spatial Modeling of Climate Elements. A Case Study: Annual

Precipitation of Isfahan Province. Geographic Research Quarterly. Vol 74.5. Asakereh. H (2010). Study of Dry Days Probability in Golestan Province by Using Markov

Chain Model. Geography and Development. Vol 17.6. Brunsdon C, McClatchey. J and Unwin. D.J (2001). Spatial Variation in the Average Rainfall –

Altitude Relationship in Great Britain: An Approach Using Geographically Weighted Regression. Int. J. Climatol. 21.

7. Fotheringham. A. S, Brunsdon. C , Charlton. M (2002). Geographically Weighted Regression, John Wiley & Son, UK.

8. Foody G. M (2003). Geographical Weighting as a Further Refinement to Regression Modeling an Example Focused on the NDVI-Rainfall Relationship, Remote Sensing of Environment, 88.

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10. Ghayoor H, Masodian S. A (1996). Study of Spatial Correlation of Precipitation and Elevation in Iran. Geographic Research Quarterly. Vol 41.

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12. Griffith Daniel A (2009). Spatial Autocorrelation, International Encyclopedia of Human Geography.

13. Hansen. J and Lebedeff, S (1987). Global Trend of Measured Surface Air Temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research. 92.

14. Harris. P, Fotheringham A. S, Crespo R, Charlton M.(2010). The Use of Geographically Weighted Regression for Spatial Prediction: An Evaluation Weighted of Models Using Simulated Data Sets, Mathematical Geosciences, 42.

15. Hasseler,U. (1997). Simple Regression with Time Trend. Journal of Time Series Analysis Vol.21 No1.

16. Huang Y, Leung Y (2002) Analyzing Regional Industrialization in Jiangsu Province Using Geographically Weighted Regression. J Geogr Syst 4.

17. Jedari. E. J. (1994). Geomorphology of Iran, Payam Noor Publication.18. Jones, P. D., Raper, S. C. B. , Bradley. R. S , Diaz. H. F. , Kelly, P.M. and Wigley, T.M.L.

(1986) Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Variation: 1851-1984. J.clim. Appl . Meteorol. 25.

19. Khalili. A. (1995). Three Dimensional Changes of Long Term of Atmospheric Annual Temperature over Iran. Nivar. Vol. 32, 13-34.

20. Legendre P.(1993). Spatial Autocorrelation: Trouble or New Paradigm, Eclogy, 74:1659-1673.


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21. Masodian. S. A. (1996). Analyses of Structure of Monthly Temperature of Iran. Research Journal of Isfahan University. Vol 1,2. 87-96.

22. Masoodian S.A(2008). On Precipitation Mapping in Iran , Journal of Humanities the University of Isfahan , 30:68-80.

23. Mojarad F, Moradi Farhaji M. (1996). Modeling the Relationships of Precipitation and Elevation in Zagros area. Modares Quarterly. Vol 2. 163-182.

24. Moradi. H. (1997). The Role of Caspian Sea on Precipitation of North Coast of the Country. Marian science of Iran. Vol 2, 3. 84-85.

25. Ranhao S., Baiping Z. and Jing T.(2008). A Multivariate Regression Model for Predicting Precipitation in the Daqing Mountains, Mountain Research and Development. 28:318-325.

26. Razai T and Azizi GH. (2008). Study of Spatial Distribution of Seasonal and Annual Precipitation in West of Iran. Geographic Research. Vol. 65. 18-39.

27. Sari saraf. B, Rajaei B., Mesri. A. and Almdari, P. (2009). Study the Relationship of Precipitation and Topography in East and West of Talesh Hillside. Geography and Environmental Planning. Vol 35. 63-84.

28. Singh. P and Kumar. N. (1997). Effect of Orography on Precipitation in the Western Himalayan Region", Journal of Hydrology,199:183-206.

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PP : 10 - 13

Modeling Deforestation Using Logistic Regression, GIS and RS Case study: Northern Forests of the Ilam Province

Dr. Saleh ArekhiAssistant Profesor of GeographyUniversity of Golestan

Aliakbar JafarzadehM.Sc of ForestryUniversity of Sari

Saleh YousefiM.Sc of Watershed ManagementUniversity of Tarbiat Modarres Noor

IntroductionLand use and land cover are not static and are frequently subject to change due to human activities, also, with attention to the trend of deforestation in recent years, is very important to estimate the degradation in the different time periods. Access to information related to the past and realizing the changes are necessary for solving deforestation problem. Identify and detect these changes can help planners and managers to identify effective factors in land use and land cover changes and have to be useful and effective programming for their control. Iran west forests is important in terms of area, environmental issues, soil and water resources conservation which during the past decades due to social and economic factors, lack of comprehensive management and etc lost its production capacity and this trend threatens the future of the region forests. As a result, planning and management of these forests are associated with many problems which lack the necessary studies in this area will contribute to the above issue. To explore and evaluate these changes, using remote sensing and GIS techniques and tools can have a considerable effect to generate spatial information and having analytical capabilities. In the present study, using the information resulting from comparing satellite images of two different periods, identify changes trend in the studied forests and then with applying GIS analyzes to identify effective factors in these changes can measure and the results presented in thematic maps and finally suggested degradation probability model for the study area.

Research MethodologyIn this research, remote sensing data include images of MSS (1976) and TM and also 1:50.000 topographic maps and 1:20.000 aerial photos of region were used. In order to classifying and preparing forest map related to the study years, training samples are prepared with help of ground operations using GPS device and also using processing and satellite images enhancement in

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environment of IDRISI software and finally, training sites of forest and non-forest areas were prepared. Also, the spectral response of different bands for each of training site classes were drawn and interpreted. After geo-referencing satellite images using ground control points, map of forest extent related to years of 1976 and 2007 through classification on original and processed images of MSS and TM was prepared. After preparing maps of forest extent related to years of 1976 and 2007, each of the mentioned maps were classified into two categories of forest and non-forest and after ensuring the accuracy of the maps produced in GIS environment for preparing changes map in forest area, both maps at the beginning and end of the studied period were crossed with each other. The most important factors in the forest degradation trend are the natural and human factors .In this research, map of slope, aspect, elevation classes as natural factors affecting changes and distance from residential areas, roads, distance from the edge of the forest and forest fragmentation index as human factors were considered in the event of changes. In this direction, map of above factors using Arcview and Idrisi software was prepared in GIS environment and was used to analyze. For preparing maps of classes of slope, aspect, elevation, digital elevation model of the study area should be prepared.

Discussion and ResultsAccuracy assessment results of classified maps are presented in the related table. With consideration to high amounts of 83% of overall accuracy, these maps can be used for preparing degradation map. After processing the satellite images, amount map and spatial distribution of forest areas in study area was prepared in years of 1976 and 2007 with use of MSS and TM satellite images. With overlay the classification results of two periods, occurred changes map was obtained. From this map, we can extract amount of degraded forest and location of these changes. Results obtained of comparison of two maps related to beginning and end of the time period (1976 and 1388) shows that during this period, 19294 hectare of forest regions area has been decreased. In logistic regression, chi-square statistic (-2Log Likelihood) or (-2LL) is widely used. When a model has a poor fit, having large amount and when a model has a good match, its value is small. In this study, chi-square value was 117.309. Coefficients of the variables in the regression equation are very important and logit equation coefficients list. 1 equation shows statistical model of degradation probability prediction obtained of logistic modeling with seven variables: slope, aspect, elevation, distance from roads and population centers, distance from the edge of the forest and forest segmentation index. Pseudo R2 for the model is 0.1608 and the ROC regression coefficient amount was equal to the amount of 0.7678. Based on this equation, the spatial distribution map of the study area forests was obtained. (1)

Forest degradation probability = -4.2303+0.007207(aspect)- 0.020488(distance from villages) - 0.001495(elevation from sea level) – 0.00116 (slope) -0.001908 (distance from road) – 0.087687

(distance from the forest edge) + 0.14544 (forest fragmentation pattern)

Conclusion

Modeling Deforestation Using Logistic Regression, GIS and RS …


This study has been taken place with objective of estimating the spatial distribution of Zagros forests and in order to detect effective factors on forest degradation. In this study, the effect of seven factors, distance from roads and residential areas, forest fragmentation index, aspect, elevation levels, slope and distance from forest and non-forest edge on forest degradation rate was studied In this study, to investigate changes in forest, MSS sensor related to year of 1976 and TM sensor data related to year 2007 were processed and classified. The Studied images were classified in to two classes of forest and non-forest and in order to study the degradation factors, map of forest degradation with spatial variables of physiographic and human were entered into the model. For modeling and estimating the spatial distribution of studied forests degradation, of logistic regression statistical method was used. Output of regression logistic with Pseudo R2 equal to 0.1608 and ROC of 0.76 represents a relative agreement with the actual degradation and ability to fit the model to estimate changes in forest area. Also, with consideration to negative coefficients related to distance from residential areas and roads can say with decreasing the distance then these factors, urban expansion and man-made regions development, road construction and increase in population plays role in forest degradation of the study area.

Keywords: Deforestation modeling, Remote sensing, Logistic regression, Zagros forests, Ilam.

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17. Pierre Bavqa M (2004). Investigating Changes of forest extent in relationship with topographic factors and man-made areas, Case Study: Eastern Forests of the Gilan province, M.Sc thesis of forestry, Tehran University.

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19. Rafieian O, Darvishsefat A.A, Namiranian M (2006). Determining changes extent of the Iran northern forests between the years of 1993 to 2001 Using ETM+ Images, Journal of Agriculture and Natural resources sciences and technology, 10 (3).

20. Ranjbar A (2002). Investigating and estimating forests degradation trend using GIS and remote sensing data, M.Sc thesis of remote sensing, Khajeh Nasir Toosi University.

21. Scheer L, Sitko R (2007). Assessment of some forest characteristics employing ikonos satellite data. Journal of Forest Science, 53.

22. Shataee S, Hosseinali Zadeh M, Ayobi S (2007). Investigating capability of ETM+ spectral data in estimating the amount of organic matter in the surface soil, Rangeland Journal, first year, 1.




PP: 14 - 16

Threshold of Acanthus Harvesting to Sediment Produce

Dr. Iraj Jabbari Associate Professor of Geomorphology University of Kermanshah Razi

Behrooz Borna M.Sc of Geomorphology University of Kermanshah Razi

Introduction Harvesting of self-growing plants, like acanthus; from the down slopes of mountainous regions often causes disturbances to the appearance of the slopes if it is mowed intensively. These soil disturbances often occur with spring showers that accelerate soil erosion. On the other hand, the harvesting is inevitable because of acanthus clinical and sustenance uses and earning a livelihood for many local people who make a living with such crop in the harvesting seasons. So, as the spring season starts, the harvest of self growing plants becomes a usual phenomenon on the slopes in lower altitudes. The harvest of rooting plants as acanthus is in a way that makes pits on the ground and this may be agent of erosion when spring rain falls; specially, precipitation contact with plant germination in Iran. So, in this study, it has been tried to elucidate if the harvesting of acanthus makes erosion at every situation or reaching to erosion threshold needs to increase number of the harvesting in area unit as well as other location with more gradient and other characteristics.

Research Methodology In this survey has been taken into consideration the sediment producing in 16 plots with and without acanthus in the Viece Mountain, near Kermanshah city. Whereas, gradients and orientation are factors that play roles on erosion, in this research too, others aims purpose to study roles of acanthus harvesting on the different gradients and orientations on erosion acceleration. In this reason, these plots established on the four different slopes and two different aspects. The amount of sediment has been measured from plots in 9 time precipitation when it falls on late winter and early spring in 2007. Factor analyze and two ways ANOVA were the techniques that used for data analyzing.

Discussion and Results

A Max. shower including 46.8 mm produced 5.8 L. runoff and 0.69 g/m2 sediment on a slope with 40% gradient and a Min. rainfall with 1.4 mm precipitation set in motion only 0.175L runoff and

0.00153 g/m2 sediment from control plots on 15% slope.Two ways ANOVA on obtained data shows that there is a significant difference between rainfall, slopes, aspects and erosion, that is, erosion have been deference on variety of showers, slopes and aspects. So, these results show that data have correctly been collected.

Threshold of Acanthus Harvesting to Sediment Produce

15

Using Factor Analysis method show that despite of a significant difference in the sediment producing on the different rainfall, gradient and precipitation times, there aren’t any significant difference of sediment producing between plots with and without acanthus plants(F1,71=0.944, P>0.05). The

statistical analysis continued and limited to only days when harvesting occur. It illustrated that

erosion don’t occur when acanthus harvesting become 2 - 4 per m2 as Kermanshah region, but erosion may be get a significant level on regions where more harvesting acanthus occur.

ConclusionThis study is carried out at a region where slopes were not acute and the number of acanthus at area unit were less, whereas, there are a lot of regions at Kermanshah province and even other neighbor provinces where slopes are more acute and acanthus grow up more per unit area . So, harvesting from these regions may increase probability of erosion occurrence as the results of this study show that the amount of significant level goes up when the study is limited to only harvesting times.

Keywords: Acanthus, Sediment yield, Erosion, Kermanshah.

References 1. Ahmadian S.H., Safaie M. and Jafari B (2005). Comparison soil erosion at dry farm, abounded

dry farms, pasture and forest areas of Kasilan catchment – Mazadaran, Proceedings of 3 rd

Erosion and Sediment National Conference, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center.

2. Ateraf H., Telveri A (2005). The study of vegetation cover and cattle grazing management on soil erosion at losses pasture in Meraveh-Tepeh, Proceedings of 3rd Erosion and Sediment National Conference, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center.

3. Ayed, G. M, Adam, M. A (2010). The impact of vegetative cover type on runoff and soil erosion under different land uses, Catena, 81.

4. Gaskin,S and Rtta, G (2001). The role of cryptogams in runoff and erosion control on Bariland in the Nepal hill of the southern Himalaya ; Earth Surface Processes and Landforms; Vol 26.

5. Ghodoosi J., Tavekoli M., Khelkhali S. A., Soltani M. J (2006). Assessing effect of rangeland exclusion on control and reduction of soil erosion rate and sediment yield, Pajouhesh & Sazandegi , No 73.

6. Isabirye M. ,Ruysschaert G., Van linden L., Poesen J. ,Magunda M.K. , Deckers J (2006). Soil losses due to cassava and sweet potato harvesting:A case study from low input traditional agriculture, Soil & Tillage Research, 92.

7. Jabbari I (2006). Statistical Methods in Environmental and Geographical sciences, Publication of Razi University, 2nd Edition.

8. Kosmos, C, Gdanalatos, N. and Gerontidis, G (2000). Effect of land parameters on vegetation performance and degree of erosion under Mediterranean condition; Catena; Vol. 40.


9. Lo´pez-Berm´udez F., Romero-D´ıaz A, Mart´ınez-Fernandez J. and Mart´ınez-Fernandez J,

(1998). Vegetation and soil erosion under a semi-arid Mediterranean climate: a case study from Murcia (spain) , Geomorphology, Vol 24.

10. Nunes , A. N., A.C. D, Almeida , C.A, Coelho (2011). Impacts of land use and cover type on runoff and soil erosion in a marginal area of Portugal, Applied Geography, 31.

11. Okhovet, M. H (2001). We come to Know Acanthus well, Damdar, 92.12. Pour Nesrollah M.R., Alidoust M (2005). The study on provender plantation effect on decrease

of runoff and soil conservation in country of Roodser, Proceedings of 3 rd Erosion and Sediment National Conference, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center.

13. Rahmati, Arabkhedri M., Ardekani J, Khlkhali A (2004). The effect of grazing rate and slope on runoff and soil loss, Pajouhesh & Sazandegi.

14. Refahi H (1998).Water erosion and conservation, Tehran university publication, Second edition.15. Ruysschaert G., Poesen J. , Notebaert B., Verstraeten G., Govers G (2008). Spatial and long-

term variability of soil loss due to crop harvesting and the importance relative to water erosion: A case study from Belgium, Ecosystems and Environment, 126.

16. Ruysschaert G., Poesen J., Verstraeten G., Govers G (2004). Soil loss due to crop harvesting: significance and determining factors. Prog. Phys.Geogr. 28 (4).

17. Ruysschaert G., Poesen J. , Verstraeten G., Govers G (2006). Soil losses due to mechanized potato harvesting, Soil & Tillage Research , 86.

18. Sadeghi H. R., Raesian R. and Razevi S. L (2005). The comparison of runoff and sediment producing on abounded plantation and poor pastures, Proceedings of 3 rd Erosion and Sediment National Conference, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center.

19. Sokooti, R., Ghaemian N., Jeferi A. and Ahmedi A(2005). The study of postural lands changing to dry farm on erosion and sediment producing, Proceedings of 3 rd Erosion and Sediment National Conference, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center.

20. Stot,T. , Leeks G., Marks, S. and Sawyer, A (2001). Environmentally sensitive plot-scale timber harvesting: impacts on suspended sediment, bed load and bank erosion dynamics, Journal of Environmental Management.

21. Tavekoli M., Mohemedi y., Piri A (2005). The effect of pasturing plans on prevention of soil erosion in Eilam province. Proceedings of 3rd Erosion and Sediment National Conference, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center.

22. Zergeri, A., Medical plants (1999). Tehran university publication, 5th edition, 3rd Volume.


Received : 30/8/2011 Accepted : 17/7/2012PP : 17 - 20

17

Synoptic Analysis of Sweeping Cold Waves of Iran Case: Chahar Mahal & Bakhtiari, 21 Dec 2004-18 Feb 2005

Dr. Sadegh KarimiAssistant Professor of Natural Geography University of Shahid Bahonar

Dr. Hossein NegareshAssociate Professor of Natural Geography University of Sistan and Baluchestan

Dr. Bohlol AlijaniAssistant Professor of Natural Geography University of Kharazmi

Dr. Taghi TavosiAssistant Professor of Natural Geography University of Sistan and Baluchestan

IntroductionHuman life has been affected by the weather conditions. Since weather conditions may be favorable or adverse, human has tried to defend himself against climatic conditions through understanding the nature of the climate. These efforts led to the identification of the origin and how they were created. Such knowledge is also more accurate and more scientific.In synoptic climatology, by relying on the accepted principle of explanation and analysis of environmental changes of the earth surface through the changes of pressure patterns, it is possible to more explain, analyze, and forecast the climatic phenomena of the earth surface.One of the most important climatic disasters that threaten our country, are cold wave and sever freezing that in some years covers large areas of the country. Freezing usually occurs with the entry of the air masses of below zero degrees. These air masses accompanied with relatively stable and multi-day cold waves that may lead to adverse effects. For example, scarce and extreme cold of January and February 2005 in Iran, which has covered a wide and extensive part of the country. For synoptic explanation and analyze of the sweeping cold wave of Iran, minimum temperature of the stations within the province of Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari was selected and then the data of sea level pressure ( SLP) & geo-potential height of middle level of atmosphere was select for explaining this event.

ResearchMethodologyThis study intends to present a synoptic analysis of the sweeping cold of January and February 2004 in Charmahal & Bakhtiari province by the “Environment to circulation analyze “model. Then specifies the cause and continuation of this cold. Following the accomplishment of this goal, means the synoptic analysis of sweeping cold wave from 21 December 2004 up to 18 February 2005, the data of eight meteorology stations (synoptic and climatology) in this province was used. The statistics of minimum daily temperatures for this two-month period of 8 stations were obtained from the Statistical Center of Iran Meteorological Organization.


Also, the daily data of sea level pressure and geo-potential height for the months of January and February (December 21, 2004 to February 18, 2005) at the study area with location accuracy of 2.5 was obtained from NCEP / NCAR base.

Discussion and ResultsIn this period, high-pressure center of Siberia, through its relocation from the east to the west, sends its spit toward the lower geographical latitudes and consequently seven severe cold wave have been created in the region. In this study, the cold wave is called small-period. Each small-period 1, 3, 5 and 7 were continued for two consecutive days. Each small-period 2 and 6, five days and finally small-period 4, has been continued for six consecutive days.In all Geo-potential height maps, simultaneously with the penetration and spread of Siberian high pressure on the study area, heights was created up to elevation 5,800 meters. This feature justifies the falling of severe cold weather along the east part of these heights. Comparing the maps of sea level pressure of small-periods showed the Siberian high pressure center simultaneously with its developing over southern latitudes has moved up to about 50 degrees east longitude (exactly along the geographic north of Iran) .In peak condition, (25 to 29 January 2005), the sixth period of cold wave (up to mean temperature -16.7 ° C)has been formed in the study area.

ConclusionIn the period 10.01.1383 to 30.11.1383 (December 21, 2004 to February 18, 2005), the Siberian high pressure with displacement of its center toward the west along geographical north of Iran, as well as strengthening and expanding its spit toward the southern latitudes, has imposed a severe cold wave to the study area. Its effects has been appeared as the severe fall of minimum temperatures in the area.During the small-periods that Siberian high pressure is consistent with the orientation of the west winds, the most severe cold waves has created in the region.

Keywords: Siberian high-pressure, Cold wave, Minimum temperature, Period-Small, Geo-potential height, Sea level pressure.

19

Refrences1. Alijani, B (1369). How Siberian High and its effect on Iran East climate, Geographical

Research Quarterly, Year. 5, No. 17.2. Alijani, B (1381). Synoptic climatology, Samt publisher, printing.1, Tehran.3. Barati, G (1375). Designed and spring frost forecast of synoptic patterns in Iran, climate thesis

- (Supervisors: Bahlol Alijani), Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran.4. Azizi, G (1383). Synoptic evaluation spring pervasive frosts in the western half of Iran,

Modarres Magazine, Issue 8 (1) and No.5. Azizi, G., A. Hanafi, M. Soltani, M. Aghajani (1390). Synoptic Analysis of Severe Late and

inclusive freezing of Farvardin (year: 1388) Journal of Geography and Environmental Planning, Year. 22, No. 41.

6. Behyar, M.B (1382). Examining frost phenomenon of Charmahal & Bakhtiari by synoptic - Dynamic view, Geographical Research Quarterly, No. 69.

7. Buishand, T.A and Brandsma, T (1997). Comparison of circulation classification schemes for predicting temperature and precipitation in the Netherlands, International Journal of Climatology, 17.

8. Chen, D. and Hellstrom (1999). The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the regional temp erature variability in Sweden: spatial and temporal variations. Tellus 51 A (4).

9. Ding, Y and Krishnamurti, T.N (1987). Heat budget of the Siberian high and winter monsoon, Monthly weather Review, Vol. 115.

10. Fattahi, E., T. Salehi (1382). Analysis of synoptic patterns of winter frost in Iran, Journal of Geography and Development, No. 13.

11. Gabriela, M and A.Tercio (2007). Dynamics of Wave Propagation Leading to Frost in the Extratropical Latitude Versus Tropical Latitude, Department of de Ciencias Atmospherics, University of Sao Paulo, No 67.

12. Hojabrpoor, G. and B. Alijani (1386) synoptic analysis of Ardabil Province, Journal of Geography and Development, No. 10.

13. Kh.D, J., H. Yazdanpanah, and Kh, Hatami (1388). Identification freezing phenomena of circulation patterns using principal component analysis and cluster analysis, case study: Fars Province, Natural Geography Quarterly, No. 4.

14. Kiristi, J., Stefan Fronzeki, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Timothy R. Carterand and Kimmo Ruosteenoja (2007). Changes in Frost, Snow and Baltic Sea ice by the end of the twenty-first century based on climate model projections for Europe, Springer Netherlands.

15. Lashkari, H (1387). Synoptic analysis of sweeping cold wave (year: 1382) in Iran, study Natural Geography Researches, No. 66.

16. Meehl, A, C.Tebaldi and D. Nychka (2004). Changes in frost days in simulations of twenty-first century climate, Climate Dynamics Journal, Springer Berlin/ Heidelberg.

17. Miazaki,Y (1998). The Relationship between Tropical Convection and Winter Weather over Japan. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 67.

Synoptic Analysis of Sweeping Cold Waves of Iran …


18. Moghimi, E., Sh. Goodarzinejad (1382). environmental hazards Magazine, first edition, Samt

publisher, Tehran.19. Smolinski, K.K and July (2004). Interrelationship among Large Scale Atmospheric

Circulation Regimes and Surface Temperature Anomalies in the North American Arctic. A Thesis Presented to the Academic Faculty. School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.

20. Statistics and Informatics, Iran Meteorological Organization (1388).21. Takahashi, H (1990). Migration of the cold air mass related to rain belt formation of the

Chinese continent and atmospheric circulation system during the baiu season (in Jepanese), geographic review of Japan, jeries A, 64 (10).

22. Vithkevich, V.I (1963). Agricultural Meteorology. Jerusalem (Mpnson).23. Wolfgang, Buerman, Benjamin Lintner and Celine Bonfils (2004). A Wintertime Arctic

Oscillation Signature on Early Season Indian Ocean Monsoon Intensity.24. www.cdc.noaa.gov25. Yarnal, B (1993). Synoptic climatology and its applications in environmental studies,

translated By Seyed Abolfazl Masoudian (year: 1385), first edition, University of Isfahan Publisher.

21

Geography and Development1t0nd Year - No. 29 - Winter 2013


Analysis of Rainfall and Discharge Trend in Kashafrood Watershed

Dr. Mehdi Vafakhah

Assistant Professor of Watershed Management

University of Tarbiat Modares

Mohammad Bakhshi Tiragani

M.Sc Student of Watershed MangementUniversity of Tarbiat Modares

Majid Khazaei

M.Sc Student of Watershed MangementUniversity of Tarbiat Modares

Introduction

The human activates and change of the land use has made changes in the peak and base flow discharge of the rivers. Also increasing the global average temperature has made anomalies in meteorological and hydrological variables such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. For better management of water resources, the data of river flow rate changes and their creating elements of such changes are required. Therefore the review of these anomalies as the trend determination in time series of hydrological and meteorological variables in different areas and their relation with each other can have an especial importance. In recent years, a great deal of studies have been made for the possible impacts of climatic changes on the river flow, which most of them have studied the changes of long term climatic averages and hydrological characteristics. Generally these changes have been studied in two cases. Firstly, the analysis of registered and available statistics of precipitation and river flow and the other is the impacts of different scenarios of climatic changes on the river flow by hydrological models. The most common method for analysis of hydrometeological time series is the review of the existence or nonexistence of trend in them by using statistical tests. Generally the existence of trend in these series may be due to gradual natural changes and climatic changes or the impacts of human activities. Various methods have been presented up to now for analysis of time series trend which are dividable in to two groups of parametric and non parametric. Non-parametric methods have a more extensive use in comparing with parametric methods. The present research was performed to the aim of detecting the existence and amount of discharge trend and precipitation at Kashafrood watershed in 13 meteorology and hydrometric stations with statistical length of 1972-2006 at the north east part of Iran which is c

nsidered as the areas with low precipitation in Iran.

Material and Methods


Characteristics of the study area

Kashafrood watershed is located at geographical longitude of 58° 20′ up to 60° 8′N and geographical latitude of 35° 40′ up to 36° 3′) and from the north is limited to Hezar Masjed heights and from south is limited to Binalood heights . The basin area is about 16500 km 2 which dedicated itself a vast part of Khorasan province. Around 500 km2 of the watershed area are the plain area and the remaining is the heights.. The characteristics of the study watershed are low rainfall and high evapotranspiration. The climate of the study watershed is semidry-cold. The characteristics of the study watershed are low rainfall and high evapotranspiration.

Research Methodology13 meteorological and hydrometric stations (Table 1) have been analyzed in this research.

Table 1 : The Characteristics of the selected stations in Kashafrood basin

Period of seriesElevation(m)Latitude

(N)Longitude

(E)RiverStation name

Code of station

1972-2006120059° 61′36° 48′RadekanImamzadeh64-003

1972-2006130059° 12′36° 28′GolmakanGolmakan64-011

1977-2006135059° 11′36° 24′KahoDolatabad64-013

1974-2006134059° 22′36° 42′ArdakBande Saroj64-015

1977-2006195059° 09′36° 18′ZoshkZoshk64-017

1974-2006175059° 13′36° 20′ZoshkShandiz64-019

1967-198995059° 40′36° 36′KardehAnderekh64-021

1985-2006120059° 26′36° 20′JagharghZirbande Golestan64-027

1967-1987124059° 31′36° 10′ToroghKortian64-029

1972-200684059° 51′36° 14′KashafroodOlang Asadi64-033

1967-200662060° 51′36° 00′KashafroodAghdarband64-037

1987-2006165058° 28′36° 50′CheknehChekneholya64-043

1986-200699060° 14′35° 56′Kalateh MonarKalateh Monar64-962

For the purpose of performing the present research, firstly the data of precipitation and seasonal and annual flow rate of each station at different years from old times to the new were sequenced and then by using rank-based nonparametric Mann–Kendall test , the trend existence in the flow rate and precipitation data of each stations were evaluated separately and the obtained results were drawn as a graph. Also, Sen Test was used for magnitude of trend. For better indication and general assessment of the area, the obtained results in GIS environment for precipitation and annual and seasonal flow rate were presented in the form of map. In the following, the relation of Mann–Kendall test and Sen Test is described.

Mann-Kendall test

23

This test that was proposed by Mann (1945) and then extended by Kendall (1975) is considered as the most frequent nonparametric methods of analysis of time series trend. Use of this method is recommended for two reasons: (1) it is applicable for various types of abnormal, incomplete and seasonal data (2) it has the highest capability for data analysis. Also this test in comparing with the other trend tests is more suitable for determining the trend of hydrologic time series. The process for calculation of this test statistics would be as the following:

a) Calculating the difference between each observes with each other and using sign function and extraction of S parameter which is obtained from relation (1) :

S=∑k=1

n−1

∑j=k+1

n

sgn ( x j−xk ) (1)

In which , n is the number of observes and xj and xk areو jth and kth series respectively. The sign function is calculated by relation (2) :

0)(10)(00)(1

sgn

kj

kj

kj

kj

xxifxxifxxif

xx

(2)

b) variance is calculated from the following relation:

Var ( s )=[n(n−1)(2n+5)−∑

tt( t−1 )(2t+5 )]

18 If n>10 (3)

Var ( s )=n(n−1 )(2n+5)18 If n<10 (4)

Where n is the number of observed data, m is the number of series with at least one repeating data, and ti is the data with similar value. In cases where the sample size n >10, the standard normal variable Z is computed using Eq. (5):

Z=¿ { S−1√Var (s )

if S>0 ¿ {0 if S=0 ¿ ¿¿¿ (5)

In a bilateral test, for finding the trend of data series, the assumption of zero is accepted where the following relation is used:



|Z|≤Z α2

(6)

In which α is a meaningful level which is considered for the test and Z is a standad normal deviate at a

meaningful level, which due to the two slope of the test, α/2has been used.

In this research, Mann–Kendall test has been implemented for 95% and 99% of confidence, which Z α/2 is equal to 1.96 and 2.65 respectively. The presence of a trend is accepted if Z is statistically significant if Z<-Zα/2 or Z>Zα/2. Positive values of Z indicate increasing trends, while negative values of Z indicate decreasing trends.

In addition to identifying whether a trend exists, the magnitude of a trend was also estimated by a slope estimator β, which was extended by Hirsch et al. (1982) from that proposed by Sen (1968), defined as

β=Median(xi−x jj−i

) where 1<i< j<n (5)

In other words, the slope estimator β is the median over all possible combinations of pairs for the whole data set. A positive value of β indicates an ‘upward trend’ (increasing values with time), while a negative value of β indicates a ‘downward trend’.


There is a decreasing trend of discharge and precipitation in Dolatabad station. The decreasing trend of discharge and precipitation in Dolatabad is due to the direct relationship between discharge and precipitation. This decreasing trend cannot relate to situation of the station due to Golmakan, Zoshk and Shandiz stations located in the nearest of the station having different trend in discharge and precipitation. Thus, the precipitation shows increasing trend for all seasonal and annual series expect spring season in Golmakan station. Also, the discharge shows increasing trend in autumn and summer seasons. There are different decreasing and increasing trend of precipitation and discharge in Zoshk and Shandiz stations. It may be due to other factors such as harvest and usage of rivers water and land use. The Aghdarband station located on the main river, precipitation shows increasing trend in seasonal and annual series. The increased precipitation of this station can be signs of climate change. While discharge of this station shows decreasing trend in seasonal and annual series due to situation of the station located on main river and outlet of watershed. Also, Placing of the station on the main river and flat region and usage of water resources in agricultural and urban parts around Mashhad plain causing decreasing trend of discharge in this station. This result is consistent with Xu et al.(2010) results.

The Klateh Monar, Kortian, Anderekh and Chakneholeya sub-watersheds shows increasing trend in seasonal and annual discharge. The trend of precipitation is observed different in the stations. The trend of precipitation in Klateh Monar station shows a decreasing trend in seasonal and annual data except autumn season data. Also, in Kortian station is observed increasing trend in only winter season but two

25

stations namely Anderekh and Cheknoleya station are observed increasing and decreasing trend in seasonal and annual data.

The trend of precipitation in Bande Saroj station was increasing trend in seasonal and annual data but the trend of discharge was decreasing trend except autumn season. The Imamzadeh, Olange Asadi and Zirbande Golestan stations were observed different trend in seasonal and annual precipitation and discharge data. ConclusionThis study was carried out for detection of rainfall and discharge trends in Kashafrood watershed, one of the low rainfall watersheds located in north-east of Iran, on 13 meteorological and hydrometry stations with data from 1972 to 2006. In this study, Mann – Kendall test, non-parametric test, was used for assessment of existence and nonexistence trend and also Sen Test was for magnitude of trend. The results of rainfall and discharge analysis showed that rainfall increased in the most stations in autumn as 9 stations have the increasing trend. While 10 out of 13 stations showed the decreasing trend in spring. In summer and winter, the numbers of stations with increasing and decreasing trends are almost equal. The annual trend analysis of rainfall and discharge showed that 5 stations had increasing trend and 8 other stations had decreasing trend in rainfall data. But no stations had increasing trend in discharge data. So that no trend was found for data in 2 stations and the rest had increasing trend. This is probability due to increasing harvest and usage of rivers water. The usage of rivers water increased with increasing population. Thus consulting dams and increasing agricultural land under cultivation was tried for more water control and productivity by human.

Keywords: Trend, Discharge, Rainfall, Mann–Kendall test, Sen Test, Kashafrood Watershed.

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20. McBean, Edward and Motiee, Homayon (2006). Assessment of impacts of climate change on water resources – a case study of the Great Lakes of North America. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions.

21. Meryanji, Zohreh, Marofi, Safar and Abbasi, Hamed (2008). Trend variations of discharge and relationship with meteorological parameters in Yalfan watershed using nonparametric Mann-Kendal method. The third conference on water resources management.

22. Qinglong, You, Shichang, Kang, Nick, Pepin, Wolfgang, Albert Flügel, Yuping, Yan, Houshang, Behrawan and Jie, Huang (2009). Relationship between temperature trend magnitude, elevation and mean temperature in the Tibetan Plateau from homogenized surface stations and reanalysis data. Global and Planetary Change.

27

23. Raziei, Tayeb, Daneshkar arasteh, Payman and Saghafian, Bahram (2005). Trend analysis of annual precipitation in arid and semi arid regions of central and eastern Iran, Water and Wastewater, 16 (2).

24. Sanjiv, Kumar, Venkatesh, Merwade, Jonghun, Kam and Kensey, Thurner (2009). Streamflow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. Journal of Hydrology, 374.

25. Svensson, Cecilia, Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. and Maurer, Thomas (2005). Trend detection in river flow series: 2. Flood and low-flow index series. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50 (5).

26. Xu, Zongxue, Liu, Zhaofei, Fu, Guobin, and Yaning, Chen (2010).Trends of major hydroclimatic variables in the Tarim River basin during the past 50 years, Journal of Arid Environments, 74.

27. Zhuoheng, Chen and Stephen, E. Grasby (2009). Impact of decadal and century-scale oscillations on hydroclimate trend analyses. Journal of Hydrology, 365.






PP: 28 - 31

Ancient Modeling of Hydrology Based on Comparison of

δo18 Carbonate and the δo13 Crbonate Parishan Lake (Fars Province)

Dariush Noorollahi

M.Sc Climatology

University of Shahid Beheshti

Dr. Hassan Lashkari

Associate Profesor of Natural Geography


Maria Amirzade

Faculty of Earth science


Introduction

stable isotopes are strong tools for environmental studies, because most of the elements are naturally more abundant at least in one isotope. Among the studies, many researchers have considered the Carbon (C13/C12), Oxygen, (O18/O16) Hydrogen (H2/H) and Nitrogen (N29/N28) which remain effects on the organic (plants and animals) and inorganic (water, soils, rocks, fossils,…) material (Griffiths, 1998, p47). In order to study the Carbon and Oxygen stable isotopes of the lake carbonates, recognizing the effective factors on the isotope's value and identifying the relationship between the isotope values is essential. In the lake environments many factors can determine the variability of the Oxygen isotopes of the lake sediments which the most important of them are including: source of materials, water temperature, residence time and the input and output amount of the lake (Benson et al, 1996, p747). In the open hydrological systems, the Oxygen isotope components of the lake water dominantly reflect the isotopic components of precipitation (rain and snow) (Leng& Marshal, 2004, p817). In addition to the effective factors on the isotopic amount of carbon and oxygen, the relationship between the carbon and Oxygen isotopes in lake systems can deliver valuable information about the history of the lake's hydrology. The relationship between the isotope values of carbon and oxygen isotopes in the closed lakes can be based on the hydrological changes, evaporation, biomass production and the Co2 concentration (Le and Ku, 1997, p72). There are big hydrological closed lakes especially in the arid regions, which both carbon and oxygen isotopic values are positively high. In these cases, it shows a close value of correlation .the magnitude of the correlations can be used to estimate the closeness of the lakes in different time periods. In the closed lakes, the covariance of carbon and oxygen isotope values generally indicate the interaction of carbon and oxygen isotopes with the atmosphere (Tanner, 2009, p210). In fact, the strong correlation between the carbon and oxygen isotope values indicates a common effective mechanism on the lake dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) (Eastwood et al, 2007, p239). In the

29

open lakes, there is a prefencally weak correlation between the carbon and oxygen isotope values. In fact, generally, the the strong correlation between the carbon and oxyegen isotope values ocuurs in the lake that have a long residence time. The correlation values more than 0.7 indicate the lake carbonates deposited in a hydrological closed lake. Furthermore, in these cases, due to the high variability of the lake water, the oxygen isotope values in the closed lake are approximately around 0.0 %. Therefore, this covariance could be used to estimate the closeness of the lakes with the carbonates deposition (Talbot, 1990, p273). Based on the methods mentioned above, a core was taken from Parishan lake in Fars. The aim of this research is to reconstruct the hydrological condition of the lake in the past using the Carbon and Oxygen stable isotopes of the Ostracoda microfossil.

Method and Materials

The carbon and oxygen isotope components were measured in Otava university, the Faculty of Science (Earth Sciences) (G.G. Hatch Isotope Laboratories, 130 Louis Pasteur). Totally, 36 analyses of carbon and oxygen isotope were made on 33 samples. The accuracy of measurement analyses has been reported ± 0.1 per thousand. The isotope components of samples based on the well- known scale of δ have been defined and reported as per thousand.

δsample (‰) = [(Rsample - Rstandard) /(Rstandard)]×1000

Where R refers to the accumulative ratios of the O18/O17 and C13/C12 in the samples and shows the isotopic standard reference. In this research both of the carbon and oxygen stable isotopes are reported based on the vpdb standards. Also the below equation is suggested in order to convert this standard into the vsmow standard.

VPDB-VSMOW d18Ovsmow = 1.0309d18Ovpdb + 30.92

VSMOW-VPDB d18Ovpdb = 0.97001d18Ovsmow -29.99

Discussion

According to the variation of the isotope values of the carbon and oxygen elements, three below zones were defined in order to survey the environmental changes separately.

Zone 1: (900 to 1800 BP)

When water evaporates from surface of Parishan lake, watervapor is enriched by H and 16O, because H2

16O has a higher watervapor in comparing with HDO and H218O (Hoefs ,2004). So the increase of

evaporation enriches the lake water and consequently the carbonate of H218O.

The δO18 values are relatively low in this zone. This indicates that evaporation had not a significant effect on the H2

16Olake water. As a result, Parishan Lake experienced a wet condition during this time. Furthermore, the weak correlation between the carbon and oxygen stable isotope values indicates that the lake was hydrologically open and was fed by the underground water during this zone. The existence of gypsum crystal only in this zone can show a higher fed of under ground water in to the lake. Consequently, the P+G=E is the suggested hydrological equation for this zone.Zone 2: (200 to 900 BP)

Ancient Modeling of Hydrology Based on Comparison of …


The carbon isotopes values in this zone are relatively higher than the previous zone. Increasing the carbon isotope values could be a result of decreasing the underground water discharge into the lake. The higher O18 suggests a drier climatic condition. In fact, the higher O18 during this zone caused by removing the O17 by evaporation. The weak correlation between the carbon and oxygen isotope values suggests an open condition of Parishan Lake in this zone. Consequently, the lake level was relatively high in this zone. However, the higher oxygen isotope values and the weaker correlation indicates that the lake level was lower than the previous period.

Zone 3: (Two recent centuries)

There is an abrupt and significant change in the C13 values in this zone. The carbon isotopes values exceeds 0 in this zone. The strongest correlation between the carbon and oxygen isotope values is observed in this zone. Totally, the isotopic analysis in this zone shows that 1: the increase of carbon isotopes indicates the decrease of underground water discharge considerably in this zone. 2: the strong correlation of carbon and oxygen isotope values suggests that the lake experienced a closed condition in this zone, evaporation is a common effective factor which controls the variations of both carbon and oxygen isotope values. 3: the anthropogenic effect is an additional factor that controls the significant change of the lake hydrology. 4: the P=E equation is suggested for this zone and the current hydrological condition also indicates that evaporation and precipitation are the main effective factors on the lake hydrology.

Conclusion

The gradual increasing of the O18 values indicates a weak dry trend during the study period. Also the investigation of the isotope carbon show that the underground water recharges variation controlled the carbon stable isotope values. The carbon isotope changes are caused by the underground water discharge variation during different time periods. The results show that the hydrological equation of the Parishan Lake has changed during the time period as this lake experienced an open condition in the past. However, at the present, as a result of the human impact, the lakes become a closed lake where the evaporation and precipitation are the main effective factor that controls the hydrology of the lake. In the final part of the study term (zone 3) the abrupt change of the O18 suggests the impacts of the human on the lake's environment.

Keywords: Palaeohydrology, Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes, Parishan Lake.

References

1. Aghanabati, Seyed Ali (2004). Geology of Iran, industry and mining boreua. The gology and mining organization of Iran.

2. The water management organization (2009).3. Shahrabi. Mostafa (1994). gology of Iran( Lakes and Seas). Publication of the Glogology

organization of Iran.4. Massodian, Abolfazl (2003). Recognizing the percipitation patterns using the cluster analysis.

Geography researches. No 52.

31

5. Andrews, J. E, Riding, R., Dennis, P. E (1997). The stable isotope record of environmental and climatic signals in modern terrestrial microbial carbonates from Europe. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. 129.

6. Eastwood J.Warran, Melanie J.Leng, Neil .Robert and Basil Davis (2007). Holocene climate change in the eastern Mediterranean region; a compartion of satble isotope and pollen data from Lake GO lhisar, southwest Turkey, Journal of quaternary Science 22(4).

7. Editorial (2008). Lake system; sedimentary archives of climate change and tecnics. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 259.

8. Fan,Majie. David L. Dettman, Chunhui Song,Xiaomin Fang , Carmala N. Garzione (2007). Climatic variation in the Linxia basin, NE Tibetan Plateau,from 13.1 to 4.3 Ma: The stable isotope record. Palaeogeography,Palaeoclimatology,Palaeoecology 247.

9. Gates, David Murray (1993). Cliamte change and its biological consequences. Sunderland, Mass; Sinauer Associates 551 .6973.G259C.

10. Griffiths, H (1998). Stable Isotopes; integration of biological, ecological and geochemical processes. oxford; Bios Scientific Publishers, 551.9 G855S.

11. Hoefs, Jochen (2004). Stable isotopes Geochimistery. Berlin; Springer. 551.9H693S.12. Jones, Matthew. Palaeoclimatic research within the Mamasani Archaeological Project.

Unpublished data.13. L.V. Benson, J.W. Burdett, M. Kashgarian, S.P. Lund,F.M. Philips, R.O. Rye (1996). Climatic

and hydrological oscillations in the Ownes Lake Basin, and adjacent Sierra Nevada,California, Science 274 746-749.

14. Leng.J .Melanie, and Jim D.Marshal (2004). Palaeoclimate interpretion of stable isotope data from lake sediment archives.Quaternary Science Reviews 23.

15. Li.H.c and Ku T.L (1997). δO18 - δ C13 covariance as a palaeohydrogical indicator for closed-basin lakes. Palaeogeography,Palaeoclimatology,Palaeoecology, Volume 133, issues 1-2.

16. Stable Isotopes and mineral resource investigation and palaoclimateic interpretion17. Talbot, M.R (1990). A review of the palaeohydrologocal interpretation of carbon and oxygen

isotopic ratios in primiary lucustraine carbonates. chemical geology; Isotope geosciences section, volume 80, issue 4, 1.

18. Tanner, H.Lawrence (2010). Chapter 4 continental carbonates as indicators of palaoclimate. Developing in sedimentology, Volume 62.

19. Wang. R.L, S.C. Scarpitta, S.C. Zhang, M.P. Zheng (2002). Later Pleistocene/Holocene climate conditions of Qinghai^Xizhang Plateau (Tibet) based on carbon and oxygen stable isotopes of Zabuye Lake sediments. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 203.

20. Xu.Hai, Li Ai, Liangcheng Tan, Zhisheng An (2006). Stable isotopes in bulk carbonates and organic matter in recent sediments of Lake Qinghai and their climatic implications, Journal Chemical Geology. Volume 235.

Ancient Modeling of Hydrology Based on Comparison of …




PP : 32 - 36

Recreational Evaluation by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

and Geographical Information System (GIS) Case: Forest Park of Martyr Zare, Mazandaran

Dr. Hamid JalilvandAssociate of Forestry Sari Agricultural and Natural Resources University

Omid Karami Ph.D Student of ForestrySari Agricultural and Natural Resources University

Annahita ShahnazaryMS.c of ForestrySari Agricultural and Natural Resources University

Morteza ShabaniPh. D Student of Urban Planning GeographyUniversity of Tarbiat Modarres

Introduction

Tourism which today is one of the most successful industries in the world has an extensive approach in ecotourism. Recreational planning in this type of tourism not only is considered as a tool for promoting social and economic levels of local people, but also due to protective functions as an experienced managerial strategy in the natural resources, provides the situation for dynamic protection. Green space is one of the most important systems of the human life and is important not only for economic reasons but also for environmental reasons as well. Urban Forest Park as a major green space has a positive effect on the urban environmental characteristics and by response to the needs of recreational and entertainment requirements can have an important effect on the urban structure and servicing. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one of the most important techniques of Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) that was introduced for allocation of scarce resources and planning requirements. Also integrating GIS and AHP have many advantages for the localization and classification of human facilities, different kinds of activities and environmental evaluations and it can be a good way for determining the Suitable and unsuitable areas for the establishment of different types of activities in the fields of agriculture, natural resources, environment, assessment of land capability, land evaluation and… which have spatial dimensions.


The study area is Forest Park of Martyr Zare with an area of over 70 ha in geographical position of 53˚ 07ʹ 09ʺ up to 53˚ 07ʹ 57ʺ east longitudes and 36˚ 32ʹ 57ʺ up to 36˚ 32ʹ 34ʺ north latitudes. In this study, for evaluating the recreational capability of the under study park, the method of combining AHP and

33

GIS environment was used. For this purpose, firstly the vegetation layers, soil, topography, geology and facilities of the study area were obtained from the Department of Natural Resources of Mazandaran province. The layers were digitized in GIS environment and the necessary modifications were made on them. Layers of slope, direction and landscape were obtained from topographic maps with 1:25000 scale with line spacing of 10 meter. The slope layers in 5 layers, direction in five classes and landscape in five classes were classified. For classification of the tree coverage and facilities of the park, the recreational demands in the park were evaluated and the most favorable coverage was identified using tourist’s idea. Finally, weights of each layer was obtained for each of the layers with AHP and by combining these weights with layers in GIS environment, the recreational capability map of the study area was obtained. In continue, in order to evaluate the recreational demand, a questionnaire about the characteristics of age and social and economical status of tourists and their demands from the park was prepared. 500 questionnaires were distributed among tourists of the study area in different seasons and different days of the week and their opinions and needs were investigated using Clawson method.


The results of evaluating recreational capability:

After preparation and classification of the slope layers, direction, landscape, geology, soil, tree cover and density of facilities in the park by using preferential judgments of experts, weight of each layer and rate of consistency of the made of judgments were calculated. Finally, maximum and minimum weights were allocated to slope and geology layers respectively. After assigning weights to each of the layers, layers were integrated in GIS environment. Finally, the potential recreational map for the study area was obtained which the results of recreational capabilities showed that from the total area of the Park, 10.2% of the area has a recreational degree of 1 (excellent), 28.9% of grade 2(good) , 41.02% of grade 3 (medium) and 19.96% of grade 4(weak).

The results of evaluating recreational demand:

The results showed that 61 percent of demands for recreational users of the park were men and 66 percent were married. Also, in case of increasing the facilities, 62 percent of Tourists willing to pay 1000 up to 5000 toman for entry fee .

Conclusion

In order to evaluate the recreational demand of the study area, firstly the effective criteria and sub criteria in this evaluation were identified. Then these criteria and sub-criteria were weighted which the results showed that the slope layer has assigned maximum weight to itself. The slope element has a great importance in measuring the recreation capability. The most important layer in recreational evaluation process in this area from the view point of experts is the slope layer and slope plays an important role in recreational capability. The best slope for recreation is placed at the layers lower than 15 % and in Dr. Makhdoom model, is the most important factor in determining the recreational capability. In the study area, after the slope layer, the landscape, tree coverage, soil, slope direction and geology layers were the most important in the evaluation process respectively. In this study, the tree

Recreational Evaluation by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)…


coverage factor was used as an important factor in the evaluation of recreational capability. For this purpose, the views of tourists were used for determining the suitability of the tree coverage, the tourists who were more willing to engage in recreational activities and the vegetation map was classified on this basis. The majority of the soils in the study area, although they are different in terms of depth, but are of clay loam type. In the study area, there are four main directions and one flat class that will show that the study area is appropriate for summer and winter recreation. After determining the weights, the final map of recreational potential were prepared using GIS that according to the results, 10.2 % of the park has a high quality for recreational capability. These areas are generally flat and have a slope between 0 - 5 % and the park facilities in these areas are more concentrated. Also 28.9 % of the park area has a good recreational potential and 41.09 % has an average capability. But, since the facilities layer has a high weight in the evaluation process, therefore it is possible to increase the recreational capability of the park by increasing the facilities in the under study park.

In this study, for evaluating the capability of recreational Zare forest park, a combination of AHP and GIS were used. AHP has the capability to use the expert’s knowledge in evaluation process. Furthermore, it is flexible and it is possible to use any number of criteria and sub-criteria in it.

Since the forest park is established for people, therefore without being acquainted with their opinions, we cannot plan for recreation. According to the results obtained from recreational demand assessment in the study area, the facilities should be mainly for meeting the requirements of people especially the young people. Also, given that most tourists have a bachelor's degree; Psychological needs of these groups should be considered in future planning. Most tourists come to the park with own cars. Then, it was trying to provide the facilities for tourists’ car parking with sufficient capacity. Also, given that most tourists want to improve facilities at the park area, it is possible to attract more tourists by increasing the park facilities. Results of evaluating the recreational demand showed that most tourists come to the park from short distances and the number of non-native tourists in the park is much lower than native tourists. The reason for this subject can be the lack of familiarity of non-native tourists and lack of guides , signs and sufficient advertisements which has caused these regions and the likes and their beauty not to be introduced properly.

Keywords: Recreation, Eco-tourism, AHP, GIS, Forest park.

Refrences

1. Amino, M (2007). A geographic information system (GIS) and multi-criteria analysis for sustainable tourism planning. A project submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of Master of Science (Planning-Information Technology). Faculty of Built Environment. University Technology Malaysia.

2. Babaie-Kafaky, S. Mataji, A. and Ahmadi Sani, N (2009). Ecological capability assessment for multiple-use in forest areas using GIS- based multiple criteria decision making approach. American Journal of Environmental Sciences, Vol. 5. N. 6

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3. Bozorgian, S, Gh (2003). Ecological potential Evaluation of mangrove protected area In order to ecotourism management using GIS. Thesis Submitted for the Degree of M.Sc. in Environment Sciences, Islamic Azad University. Science and Research branch.

4. Bukenya, J, O (2000). Application of GIS in ecotourism development decisions: evidence from the Pearl of Africa. www.rri.wvu.edu/pdffiles/bukenya2012.pdf. Accessed on 20th September, 2004.

5. Çimren, E. Çatay, B. and Budak, E (2007). Development of a machine tool selection system using AHP, International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, N. 35.

6. Faraji sabokbar, H (2005). Site selection services business units using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Geographical Research, Vol. 37, N. 51.

7. Farajzadeh, M., and Karami, T (2004). Land use planning using remote sensing and geographic information systems (case study: Khorramabad). Geographical Research, Vol. 37, N. 47

8. Fennel, D (1999). Ecotourism and introduction. First published Routledge is an imprint of the taylor & francis Group.

9. Ghodsipour, SH (2009). Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). 7th edition. Amir Kabir University of Technology.

10. Goshtasb Meigoony, H. Shams, B. Cheshme khavar, B (2008). Assasment of Opinions and needs of recreational of visitor’s SiSangan Forest Park. Environmental science. N. 6.

11. Gul, A, M. Orucu, K. and Oznur, K (2006). An approach for recreation suitability analysis to recreation planning in Golchuk Nature Park. Journal of Environmental Management, N. 1.

12. Hibberd, B,G (2001). Ground rule in urban forestry, Jou of agric and for, N. 12.

13. Janke, J, R (2010). Multi-criteria GIS modeling of wind and solar farms in Colorado. Renewable Energy. Article in Press.

14. Kangas, J. Kangas, A. Leskinen, P. and Pykalainen, J (2001). MCDM methods in strategic planning of forestry on state-owned lands in Finland. J. Multi-Criteria Dec. Anal, N. 10.

15. Kumari, S. Behera, M, D. and Tewari, H, R (2010). Identification of potential ecotourism sites in West District, Sikkim using geospatial tools. Tropical Ecology, N. 51.

16. Laurance, W. Alonso, M. and Campbell, P (2005). Challenge for forest conservation in Gabon, Central Africa. Futures, N. 38.

17. Makhdoom, M (2010). Fundamental of land use planning. 9th edition. Tehran University.

18. Malczewski, J (2004). GIS-based land-use suitability analysis: a critical overview. Journal of Progress in Planning, N. 62.

19. Moreno-Jimenez, J.M (2005). A spreadsheet module for consistent consensus building in AHP-group decision making. Group Decision and Negotiation, N. 14.

20. Rezvanfar, M. (2007).study of Potential of recreational park Chitgar use of GIS and RS technology. Thesis Submitted for the Degree of M.Sc. in Forestry, Natural Resources department of Sari, Mazandaran University.


21. Saaty, T, L (1980). The analytical hierarchy process, planning priority. Resource Allocation. RWS

Publication, USA.

22. Shirvani, Z. (1388). Comparative evaluation of recreational forests of Neka-Zalemrood with AHP and Gulz-Dimiril and Makhdoom methods. Thesis Submitted for the Degree of M.Sc. in Forestry, Natural Resources department of Sari, Mazandaran University.

23. Takiehkhah, J (2008). Recreational potential Evaluation of Abidar Park using GIS. Thesis Submitted for the Degree of M.Sc. in Forestry, Natural Resources department of Sari, Mazandaran University.

24. Tavary, M. sukhekian, M, A. And Mirnejad, S. A. (2008). Identification and prioritization of factors that affect on Utilization Manpower using the MCDM (Case Study: A jeans cloth manufacturing companies in Yazd province). Industrial Management. No. 1.

25. Ying, x. Guang-Ming, Z. Gui-Qiu, C. Lin, T. Ke-Lin, W. and Dao-You, H (2007). Combining AHP with GIS in synthetic evaluation of eco-environment quality—A case study of Hunan Province, China. Ecological Modeling, N. 209.

26. Zebardast, E (2001). Application of AHP in urban and regional planning. Fine Arts Journal. No. 10.

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Determination of Erosion Severity Using Fargas and BLM ModelsCase : Bandre Drainage Basin

Mehdi NojavanPh.D Student of Environmental PlanningUniversity of Tehran

Dr. Aliasghar MohammadiPh.D Graduated Watershed Management University of Islamic Azad- Tehran

Dr. Vahid GholamiAssistant Professor of Watershed ManagementUniversity of Gilan

IntroductionErosion is a process in which soil particles separate from their main bed and move to the other place with the help of a transferor operator where based on the type of transferor operator there will be water, wind and glacier erosion (Refahi, 2000, p.3). Nowadays we rarely can find a region in the ground that is not subjected to the erosion and destruction which the main reason is the population growth and the excessive use of land (Ahmadi, 1999, p.195). Also it is considerable that erosion has two important aspects which include the reduction of the land productivity power and the disturbance of eroded materials (Ghadiri, 1993, p: 3-6). Therefore, the compensation of eroded soil for the nature, especially in the arid regions that the condition is so inadequate for formation of soil, is so hard and long process. So, the residents of these regions must be so careful in the preservation and prevention of erosion, because erosion is naturally so intense in these regions and the possibility of soil forming is so low (Kardovani, 1998, p.7). Thus the recognition of the sensitive regions to the erosion and sedimentation in the various parts of a drainage basin is one of the most critical issues in the prioritizing of the regions for executive works of soil preservation and watershed management.

Research Methodologies1- Preparing the geological map of form with the scale of 1:100000) that is used in the models and the extraction of basin boundary.2- Preparing topography map of Sardasht form with the scale of 1:50000 that is used in the models and preparing the map of water way network.3- Preparing the aerial photographs with the scale of 1:40000 that is used for increasing the resolution of the map of second part and water way network.4- Fargas model: as it mentioned in the introduction, this method was presented by Fargas and et al in 1997. Fargas model includes only two factors, the rock type erosive and drainage density in every rock unit. The steps of implementation of this model are explained in the full paper.


5- 1BLM model: this method was presented by the U.S Bureau of Land Management. BLM model includes seven factors; the surface erosion, the litter cover, the rock cover on the surface, the affection of destruction on the surface, the surface rill erosion, the affection of sedimentation due to the water flow and the amplification of gully erosion. The steps of implementation of this model are explained in the full paper.

ConclusionThe identification of the different areas in drainage basin (as a natural planning unit) for occurring the erosion and its severity has been always one of the most important purposes of the natural resources experts. For achieving to this purpose some experimental models have been presented that some of them have high efficiency and others have weaknesses. Fargas and BLM models are used in this research and they are run in Bandre drainage basin in Piranshahr town, West Azerbaijan province with 2840.1 hectares area. Fargas model includes only two factors, the rock type erosive and drainage density in every rock unit, Whereas BLM model includes seven factors; the surface erosion, the litter cover, the rock cover on the surface, the affection of destruction on the surface, the surface rill erosion, the affection of sedimentation due to the water flow and the amplification of gully erosion. The objective of this paper is the handling of these two models in the study area. The results of two models showed that there are two classes of low and moderate erosion in the basin, where in Fargas model 9.72% area of the basin has low erosion and 90.27% has moderate erosion and in BLM model 50.63% area of the basin has low erosion and 49.36% has moderate erosion, therefore 19.206% of the area has a low erosion and 54.64% of the area has moderate erosion, also 73.85% of the study area in Fargas and BLM models has concurrence in the erosion severity.

Keywords : Bandare basin, Model, Severity of erosion, Gully erosion, BLM, Fargas.

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PP : 40 - 43

Synoptic Analysis of July 2010 Russian Fires and Pakistan Floods

Dr. Ghasem Azizi

Associate Profesor of Climatology

University of Tehran

Dr.Aliakbar Shamsipour

Assistant Professor of Climatology


Morteza Miri

Ph.D Student of Climatology


Introduction

Abnormality due to the heat flow of summer2010 impacted on most of Northern Hemisphere including: Russia, Kazakhstan, Iran, Mongolia, China and some parts of European continent. Heat flow and consequently increasing the temperature in Russia began on late June ,with the beginning of summer season, the temperature increase was more severe, and has caused devastating effects such as forest fires of Russia from 31 July around Moscow town. Further, at the same month from 24 of July, upon heavy rains and increasing the water level at Sind basin, the provinces of Baluchistan, Sind, Punjab and Kheibar in Pakistan were flooded. So that, about one fifth of the whole of Pakistan was flooded. Based on the reports published by Pakistan state, the life of about 20,000,000 people was affected by the flood.

According to the reports, the total number of people injured in this flood is more than the three events of 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami disaster, 2005 Kashmir earthquake and 2010 Haiti earthquake. Damage to the buildings was estimated about US$4 billion, and wheat crop damages were estimated to be about US$500 million. World Meteorological Organization considers the global warming as the main reason for climatic changes and its consequences, such as droughts, floods, fires and heat flows.


Unprecedented heat of summer months of 2010 in Russia has caused large and extensive fires in the forests of Moscow West suburbs, at the same time, torrential precipitation occurred in Pakistan. Its causes were analyzed by using the data of Russia meteorological stations (Moscow),(Rostov on Don), (Volgograd) and (Kazan),and Pakistan(Risalpur), (Peshawar), (Murree),and synoptic maps of the ground surface levels of,850,500,250hpa. In this study, the elements of temperature, wind direction and speed, air pressure and geo-potential height at different levels in Russia and Pakistan were studied.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rostov_on_Don

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Pakistan and Russia are located in different latitudes and climatic conditions, So that their effective and controller climatic systems are quite different. Pakistan is located in lower latitudes and adjacent to torrid area. Its eastern parts are located on Indian plateau and its west and northern part is located on Iran plateau and Eurasia.

It has relatively mild winters and warm summers. Its Northern areas have temperate climates, and southern parts influenced by Southern tropical and Southeast Asia monsoon systems. Central areas have hot summers which their temperature reaches to over 45 C° and Cold winters which the temperature reaches to freezing point.

Russia, with more than 17 million square kilometers of area, is the largest country in the world. It is located at high geographical latitudes and most of the country is cold with low precipitation. Therefore most of the areas of the country (especially the grand country Siberia) are empty and Agriculture is impossible. Effective atmospheric systems includes low and high pressures temperate latitudes and adjacent to polar area. Its temperature conditions is known with low and cold temperatures.

Although the climatic conditions of each region is under the influenced of several factors and is different from its surrounding areas, but some climate phenomena can operate on a larger scale and in different regions have a common origin. In this study, with regard to the simultaneous occurrence of two climatic phenomenon of severe floods in Pakistan and fires in forests in the west of Russia, it is tried to identify and analyze the synoptic relationship between the two events.

Based on time analysis, temperature changes at four considered stations as the West representative stations of Russia's were studied, The annual mean of maximum temperature for June, July, August and September were extracted and calculated from daily data and the required graphs were plotted. Since the fires were started in Russia on late July, the data related to one month prior to the occurrences of this phenomenon were studied. The review of average annual and temperature anomaly of temperature data, the increase of temperature in 2010 is obvious. Based on the calculations, in the study period, temperature increase can be observed in most regions of Russia and Pakistan.

Also the review of rainfall data of Pakistan stations in late July showed an increasing trend, So that during three days(27 to 30 July), 400 mm of precipitation is recorded in Sialkot station. While this volume of rainfall occurs on average during 4 months each year .According to analytical maps of different elements of atmospheric analysis at the ground level and upper levels, a low-pressure Centre with 998 hpa central pressure in Pakistan and a high pressure centre with central pressure 1017hpa on the ground surface in Russian has affected on the atmospheric conditions of these areas. Maps of high levels of atmosphere show the presence of blocking system during July. . According to the calculations, the intensity of blocking system was weak (0.76) during the first week of July, but in the next three weeks of July has had a moderate intensity from minimum 2.1 up to maximum 2.85.

Conclusion

Based on the obtained results, it was cleared that location of Blocking system in the upper levels of atmosphere, on one hand caused by the currents emitted from northern latitudes to warm down areas of



Russia and the rotation system causing long lasting accumulation of warm and dry air system in the West with sunny and smooth sky which leads to drastic increase of temperature and widespread fires of late July in Russia. Also moving subtropical high pressure system to high latitudes, causing thermal low pressures on Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. These systems by changing direction and moving toward the North East of its original position, it is extended up to Pakistan. So in contacting with cold air masses which extended under the affection of Blocking system from high latitudes, is strengthened and created the torrential precipitation of Pakistan. Therefore, both of the discussed phenomenon are in relation with each other due to the existing models of atmospheric systems and in particular the occurred blocking phenomenon at high latitudes and show the climatic regional anomalies .

Keywords: Flood, Fire, Tmperature and precipitation anomalies, Blocking, Russia and Pakistan.

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