credit suisse energy summit -...
TRANSCRIPT
Credit Suisse Energy Summit David Stover, President and COO February 2014
Noble Energy
2
Execution delivering a unique future
Outstanding Growth Agenda Production expected to more than double by 2018 Cash flow to increase $1 B per year Returns to reach record levels
Diversified Portfolio Provides Exceptional Optionality Inventory of ultra-high return opportunities U.S. unconventional, global deepwater and
exploration all play material roles
7.5 BBoe Proved Reserves and Discovered Unbooked Resources Fueling Growth
Industry-leading Exploration Capability Potential to add materially to discovered resources
Financial and Organizational Capacity in Place to Deliver
3
19%
22%
Visible Growth Profile from Discovered Resources
Contributions from All Operating Areas
Superior Operational and Financial Outcomes by 2018 Production 629 MBoe/d
Reserves 2.9 BBoe
ROACE* 17%
$8.3 B discretionary cash flow**
18% net debt-to-cap ratio
Debt-Adjusted Growth per Share* (CAGR)
Production Cash Flow
* Term defined in appendix ** See appendix for referenced price case
Superior long-term performance Five-Year Growth Outlook – 2013 to 2018
Organic Cash Capital
0
2
4
6
8
10
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cash Flow Outlook
4
Growing cash flows support investment program
Grows $1 B per Year with 5-year CAGR of 19% Exceeds Cash Capital Beginning in 2016 $1 B Cumulative Excess through 2018
* Term defined in appendix
$ B
Discretionary Cash Flow* Organic Cash Capital*
DJ Basin
Marcellus
DW GOM
West Africa
Eastern Med.
Other
2018
DJ Basin
Marcellus DW GOM
West Africa
Eastern Med. Other
2014 Discretionary Cash Flow*
2013 Accomplishments
5
Continuing to build on success
Sales Volume Up 20 Percent, Excluding Divestitures Record Reserves of 1.4 BBoe, Up 19 Percent Reserve replacement of 369% with all-in F&D cost of $12/Boe
Delivered Three Major Projects Tamar producing 2.5 years from sanction First production from Alen, 6 months ahead of plan First Integrated Development Plan (IDP)
at Wells Ranch in DJ Basin
Six New Major Projects Sanctioned Exploration Discoveries Continue Building the Future Troubadour, Dantzler, Karish and Tamar SW
Discovered Unbooked Resources Up Over 25% Enhanced Portfolio with Acquisitions and Exchanges Industry-leading Safety Performance
YE 2013 Reserve Roll Forward
6
Nearly 20 percent increase driven by all core areas
1,184
1,406
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
YE 2012 Production Sales andPurchases
Extensions Performance Price YE 2013
MMBoe
Liquids
Int. Natural
Gas
U.S. Natural
Gas
By Commodity
DJ Basin
Marcellus
DW GOM
West Africa
Eastern Med.
Other
By Core Area
2013 Reserve Replacement of 369%
A Closer Look at 2014 Substantial growth in core areas
7
DJ Basin
Marcellus DW
GOM
West
Africa
Eastern Med
New Ventures
Other
$4.8 B Capital*
Production Outlook 302 – 322 MBoe/d 18% Year Over Year Increase, Adjusting
for Sales and Exchange Led by DJ Basin, Marcellus Shale and Israel
Preparing and Investing for Future Growth Accelerating U.S. onshore developments Developing our next phase of major projects
Increasing Optionality of Eastern Mediterranean Gas Growing Israel domestic market Executing contracts Scoping LNG – floating and onshore
Maintaining High-impact, Strategic Exploration Program NE Nevada play, Cameroon and deepwater GOM Maturing other frontier areas for new drilling
7
*Assume no joint venture carry in the Marcellus Shale program - maximum potential impact $225 MM
DJ Basin
8
Creating and accelerating value … again! Contiguous High-value Acreage Position 609,000 net acres with 87% in oil window Supports acceleration and optimization from IDP’s
Net Risked Resources of 2.6 BBoe 9,500 normal length equivalent locations
Drilling Activity Doubles to Nearly 700 Equivalent Wells per Year by 2018
Five-Year Production CAGR of 23% Technical and Operation Excellence
in All Phases ERLs generating 3X the NPV of normal laterals
Integrated Development Plans (IDPs) enhancing NPV by 30 - 50%
DJ Basin 2014 Operations
9
Premier acreage position
NBL Acreage
Oil Window*
Gas Window
Greater Wattenberg Area
(GWA)
East Pony Northern Colorado
Wells Ranch
* Liquids above 50%
Accelerating Pace of Development 320 operated horizontal wells, which
includes 55 ERLs
Production Up 28%, Adjusting for the Asset Exchange
Performing Basin Wide Downspacing (24 - 32 wells per section) 30 - 40% of 2014 well count Located in 5 IDP areas
Strong Well Performance and Lower Well Costs
IDPs Maximizing Value While Reducing Impacts Wells Ranch and East Pony in progress
Investing $2 B or 40% of Total Capital Program
DJ Basin Downspacing Maximizing value through testing of optimal spacing
Confirmed Minimum 16 Wells per Section in Oil Window
30 to 40 Percent of 2014 Wells at Higher Density Spacing Five IDPs represent over 50% of total
acreage
Determining Optimal Spacing for each IDP considering Reservoir characterization Legacy vertical wellbores Surface constraints
10
24 wells/sec 2014 32 wells/sec 2014
East Pony IDP • 20-35 downspace wells • A, B, and C benches
Mustang IDP • 6-12 downspace wells • B, C, and Codell benches
Greeley Crescent IDP • 6-12 downspace wells • A, B, C, and
Codell benches
Wells Ranch IDP • 50-80 downspace wells • A and C benches
Core IDP • 4-8 downspace wells • A, C, and
Codell benches
Multiple IDP Areas Delivering Superior Results Strong performance of standard length and ERLs
11
East Pony IDP 3 Rohn State ERLs • 8,700’ lateral average • Combined volume of 2,300 Bo/d
and 800 Mcf/d after 20 days
Core IDP 5 well Loeffler Pad • 4,400’ lateral average • Producing 3,200 Boe/d after 30 days
East Pony IDP Timbro – 1st East Pony ERL • 9,040’ lateral • Producing 600 Bo/d and 800
Mcf/d after 90 days
Wells Ranch IDP Recent batch of 10 wells • 4,500’ lateral average • 8 of 10 performing in line
with 400 MBoe EUR • Remaining 2 performing
at 305 MBoe average
Wells Ranch IDP Jenkins – 1st Codell ERL • 6,985’ lateral • Producing 300 Bo/d and 1,400
Mcf/d after 60 days
Integrated Development Plan Impact
12
Decreasing footprint and increasing economics in all phases of the asset life-cycle
Operational Efficiencies
Trucking
Infrastructure
Longer Laterals
Infrastructure
Operational Efficiencies
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$ MM East Pony IDP Incremental Value Uplift per Well
Reduced Development Costs $0.4 to $0.8 MM per well ($1.15 – 2.30 per Boe*) No need for tanks on each well Less water trucking due to distribution lines Pad drilling & ERL efficiencies
Reduced Operating Costs $0.1 to $0.3 MM per well ($0.30 - 0.90 per Boe*) Eliminates oil hauling Eliminates water hauling More efficient use of pumpers Reduced emissions
Drives $2B in Incremental Value for Two Currently Sanctioned IDPs Accounts for only 18% of acreage
Current
Future
* Based on 345 MBoe EUR type curve for East Pony
Marcellus Shale
13
Maximizing value from a premier resource play
Net Risked Resources of 15 Tcfe, Doubled Over Two Years 350,000 net acres in southwest fairway 88% NRI enhances returns
Five Year Production CAGR Over 45% Efficiencies and Learnings Driving Well
Costs Down On track to deliver 20% reduction over 2 year period
ending 2014
Well Performance - EURs and IPs Continue to Improve
Multiple Upside Opportunities Downspacing, delineation, completions
and new intervals
Marcellus 2014 Activity
14
Delivering value with upside opportunities
Accelerating Development 100 operated wet gas and 70 dry gas wells
Lateral lengths on operated wells to average over 7,000 ft.
Production up Over 90% Further Improvement in Well Cost
and Performance Continue to Implement IDP Concept Conduct 500 Ft. Downspacing Tests
in Multiple Areas No interference on 750 ft. spacing
Delineate New Areas Oxford / Pennsboro / Shirley Drill several Burkett tests
Allegheny Airport
Majorsville
Oxford / Pennsboro / Shirley
SW PA Dry
Wet Gas Acreage
Dry Gas Acreage
Focus Areas
Marcellus Operational Excellence
15
Tremendous value added in short period of time
Returns Doubled Through Efficiencies and Performance Improvement EURs up 60% from acquisition Realized 10% cost improvement Focus on long laterals
Wet Gas Area Historical* Today Future
Laterals 5,000 7,000 7,000 - 10,000
Well Cost $7.2 MM $8.0 MM $7.1 - $8.3 MM
$ M Per Lateral Foot $1.44 $1.14 $1.01 - $0.83
Zones Marcellus Marcellus Multiple Targets
Spacing 1,000’ 750’ 750’ - 500’
Stages 300’ 150’ - 250’ 150’ - 250’
EURs
4.3 Bcfe
0.86 Bcfe/1,000’ $1.67 F&D
9.6 Bcfe
1.37 Bcfe/1,000’ $0.83 F&D
BT NPV10 $1.5 MM $7.4 MM
Value Impact of Improvements (Wet Gas)
0
2
4
6
8
Historical* EUR Uplift CostReductions
LongerLaterals
Today
BT NPV10 $ MM
*EUR estimates from JV initiation in 2011. Cost estimates from 2012 Analyst Conference
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Mcf/Lateral Ft.
Days
Marcellus Performance Upside
16
Potential to materially increase resources and type curves
Positive Results from Reduced Stage and Cluster Spacing (RSCS) Average initial rate up to 40% higher
Designing more tests across the JV
Optimized Flowback and Production Potential EUR uplift of 5 - 15%
Potential to increase condensate production
Testing Refrac Potential Offset Wells RSCS Wells
Cum. Production (Normalized) on RSCS Wells and Offsets
Deepwater Gulf of Mexico
17
Sustained value creation with visibility for significant growth
Proven Track Record of Exploration Success Leading-edge technology with disciplined processes
Production and Cash Flow to More than Double in Next Five Years Oil-dominated production delivers strong margins
Existing Infrastructure Contributing to Significant Value Creation
Four Recent Discoveries to Add More than $1.3 B BT NPV10 with Upside Big Bend and Gunflint startups in 2015 - 2016 Dantzler, Troubadour tie-ins to existing infrastructure
Existing Portfolio with 3.8 BBoe Gross Unrisked Resources 4 - 5 prospects planned for drilling in next 2 years
Big Bend Development
18
Substantial upside to initial base development
NBL Operated with 54% WI Gross Resources of 30 - 65 MMBoe Single Well Subsea Tie-back
Development First oil expected late 2015 Peak rate 22,000 Boe/d gross, 90% oil
Additional Potential Resources of 30 - 50 MMBoe Gross Additional producer wells Water injection considered for
secondary recovery
Strong Point Forward Economics (50 MMBoe case) Net capital $385 MM (gross $710 MM) Payout within 2 years of startup BT NPV10 $390 MM BT ROR 42%
• 18 mile subsea tie-back • 6,050 - 7,200 ft. water depth • Accommodate additional
developments
Dantzler Development
19
Leveraging Big Bend infrastructure for exceptional returns
NBL Operated with 45% WI Multi-zone Discover 55 - 95 MMBoe gross resources Over 85% oil
Planned Tie-in to Big Bend Development Allows acceleration of first production
to 1H16 Peak rate 36 MBoe/d gross
Strong Point Forward Economics (55 MMBoe) Net capital $245 MM (gross $540 MM) Payout less than 1 year from startup BT NPV10 $695 MM BT ROR 98%
Big Bend Dantzler
Troubadour
West Africa
20
Leveraging expertise and experience in Africa
Unique Approach to Creating Value Liquids and gas monetization with
LPG, LNG and Methanol
Two Major Projects Brought Online in Last Two Years
Leveraging Infrastructure for Future Developments Diega sanction targeted in 2014
Expanding Regional Position into Highly Prospective Areas
Progressing Regional Gas Monetization Plans
Exploration Well Planned for Cameroon in 2014
Alen, Another Major Project Success
21
Unique design leverages Aseng FPSO
Project Sanction to Startup in 30 Months First production in May 2013, 6 months early On budget for $1.3 B gross
Designed to Maximize Value Offshore gas plant for condensate separation Gas reinjection for enhanced condensate recovery
and future monetization Condensate storage and offloading at Aseng FPSO
Field Expected to Reach 30 - 35 MBbl/d Gross in 2014 Currently producing 28 MBbl/d
Best-in-class Safety Performance Over 11 million man hours worked since sanction with only
one lost-time incident
Greater Diega Area
22
Leveraging existing infrastructure
Diega, Carla and Carmen Operated with 45% WI 70 - 200 MMBoe gross resources 75% liquids
Diega Oil Development Positive results from 2013 appraisal Successful flow test confirmed
reservoir continuity and quality Initial development phase
30 - 135 MMBoe gross
Moving Forward with Sanction Finalize development plans by mid 2014 Expect first oil late 2016 at 10 MBbl/d per well Evaluate regional development scenarios,
including Carmen and Carla discoveries
Alen
Diega Aseng
Eastern Mediterranean
23
World-class discoveries with world-class opportunities
Approximately 40 Tcf Gross Resources Discovered Over 19 Tcf available for export markets
Outstanding Operational Performance from Tamar Averaging 750 MMcf/d since startup
Growing Domestic and Regional Markets Israel demand growth expectation increased to 17% Multiple regional markets emerging
Leviathan Development Options Progressing Continuing Exploration and Appraisal Program 3 BBbl and 4 Tcf of remaining potential
Generating Strong Cash Flow to Support Future Projects
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
Capacity Expected Annual Avg. Sales
2014 2015 2016
Tamar Field
24
Supplying a growing domestic market
Outstanding Operational Performance Near 100% facility uptime Current deliverability capacity of 1 Bcf/d Averaged 750 MMcf/d since startup
Quality Investment $0.90/Mcf F&D, $0.40/Mcf LOE Average price realization $5.75/Mcf
200 MMcf/d Onshore Compression Expansion Project Underway $220 MM gross investment with
mid 2015 startup Tamar SW provides added flexibilty Underpinned by IEC gas purchase option
Additional Expansion to 1.5 Bcf/d Planned for 2016 Supported by identified / executed contracts
AOT Compression +22%
Planned Further Expansion +25%
Capacity and Sale Projection
Bcf/d
Leviathan Development
25
Monetizing 19 Tcf of natural gas resources
Phased Development Approach Diversifies supply to Israel New regional and LNG markets
Focus on Partnering with Government and Customers
Initial Development Targeting Domestic and Regional Markets Sanction driven by market and
regulatory maturity Targeting first sales in 2017
LNG, FLNG Options Progressing Finalizing the Sell Down to
Woodside
Leviathan FLNG
Leviathan FPSO
Fixed Platform
Leviathan Memorandum of Understanding
26
Bring in a strategic partner with LNG expertise
NBL Selling 9.66% Interest to Woodside Continue as upstream operator with 30% working interest
Cash Payments Totaling $525 MM $390 MM at closing, which is expected in 2014 $135 MM at FID of LNG project or as regional exports contracts are signed
Revenue Sharing Up to $502 MM 2.9% of WPL’s export revenues, once gross export volumes exceeds 2 Tcf
Other Payments $19 MM should Leviathan resources be determined to exceed 20 Tcf 1.0% royalty on WPL’s oil revenues related to deep Mesozoic oil development
Woodside to Operate LNG field development Subject to Execution of Definitive Agreements and
Customary Regulatory Approvals
Robust Exploration Prospect Inventory
27
Testing 850 MMBoe net risked resources in the next 24 months
Eastern Mediterranean • Deep Mesozoic oil test in Israel • Drill next Cyprus gas prospect
Deepwater GOM • Test 4 – 5 Miocene prospects
Falkland Islands • Complete 3D seismic evaluation • Spud first operated well
NE Nevada • Drilling additional wells • Conduct production tests Sierra Leone
• 3D seismic acquisition
Cameroon • Exploration well planned
Noble Energy
28
Delivering a unique future
Forward-looking Statements and Other Matters
29
This presentation contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities law. Words such as “anticipates,” “believes,” “expects,” “intends,” “will,” “should,” “may,” and similar expressions may be used to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not statements of historical fact and reflect Noble Energy’s current views about future events. They include estimates of oil and natural gas reserves and resources, estimates of future production, assumptions regarding future oil and natural gas pricing, planned drilling activity, future results of operations, projected cash flow and liquidity, business strategy and other plans and objectives for future operations. No assurances can be given that the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation will occur as projected, and actual results may differ materially from those projected. Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates and assumptions that involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. These risks include, without limitation, the volatility in commodity prices for crude oil and natural gas, the presence or recoverability of estimated reserves, the ability to replace reserves, environmental risks, drilling and operating risks, exploration and development risks, competition, government regulation or other actions, the ability of management to execute its plans to meet its goals and other risks inherent in Noble Energy’s business that are discussed in its most recent Form 10-K and in other reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports are also available from Noble Energy’s offices or website, http://www.nobleenergyinc.com. Forward-looking statements are based on the estimates and opinions of management at the time the statements are made. Noble Energy does not assume any obligation to update forward-looking statements should circumstances or management's estimates or opinions change.
This presentation also contains certain historical and forward-looking non-GAAP measures of financial performance that management believes are good tools for internal use and the investment community in evaluating Noble Energy’s overall financial performance. These non-GAAP measures are broadly used to value and compare companies in the crude oil and natural gas industry. Please also see Noble Energy’s website at http://www.nobleenergyinc.com under “Investors” for reconciliations of the differences between any historical non-GAAP measures used in this presentation and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. The GAAP measures most comparable to the forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures are not accessible on a forward-looking basis and reconciling information is not available without unreasonable effort.
The Securities and Exchange Commission requires oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. The SEC permits the optional disclosure of probable and possible reserves, however, we have not disclosed our probable and possible reserves in our filings with the SEC. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as “discovered unbooked resources”, “resources”, “risked resources”, “recoverable resources”, “unrisked resources”, “unrisked exploration prospectivity” and “estimated ultimate recovery” (EUR). These estimates are by their nature more speculative than estimates of proved, probable and possible reserves and accordingly are subject to substantially greater risk of being actually realized. The SEC guidelines strictly prohibit us from including these estimates in filings with the SEC. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosures and risk factors in our most recent Form 10-K and in other reports on file with the SEC, available from Noble Energy’s offices or website, http://www.nobleenergyinc.com.