credit suisse automotive & transportation conference · 2012. 9. 4. · credit suisse...
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Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation ConferenceRob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012
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Cautionary InformationThis presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not
statements of historical fact, including specifically the Corporation’s outlook regarding: economic conditions and growth opportunities; future safety and operating performance; future capital investments; and its ability to generate volume leverage, increase returns to shareholders, and attract new business. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements l ll i l d ith t li it ti i f ti t t t di j ti di ti t tialso generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations,
estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and futureeconomic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.
Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results and will notForward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will notnecessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materiallyfrom those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or y pimplied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available inthe Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2011, which was filed with the SEC on February 3, 2012. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).
F d l ki t t t k l f d b d l i f ti il bl th d t thForward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date thestatements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and therefore information on or available through the website is not and should not be deemed to be incorporated by
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and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated byreference herein.
Financial Trends
81.679.3
$4 53$5.53
$6.72
EPSOperating Ratio (%)
7 Day Volume
86.9
77 4 76.1
70.6 70.7
$1.90$2.94
$3.44
$4.53$3.74
77.4
12.4%ROIC (%)*
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112005
Free Cash Flow*$1 9(billions)
6 4%
8.2% 8.8%10.2%
8.2%
10.8%
$0.8 $0 7
$1.4
$1.9(billions)
6.4%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112005
$0.2$0.5 $0.5
$0.7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112005
33
* See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.
First Half 2012 Record Results
$3.89Best-Ever
+35%
Earnings Per SharePositives• First Half Records
$2.42$2.89
Best EverFirstHalf– Operating Revenue
– Operating Income– Operating Ratio
2010 2011 2012
– Operating Ratio– Earnings– Employee Safety
Operating Ratio (%)– Customer Satisfaction• Franchise Diversity
Ch ll
72.2 72.9
68.7
Operating Ratio (%)
(4.2) pts
Challenges• Coal Volumes
2010 2011 2012
Best-EverFirstHalf
44
2010 2011 2012
Consistent Network Performance
28200• Agility and Resiliency Demonstrated with
(000s) (MPH)
24
26180
Resources and Service Plan
• Volume Growth in
20
22
140
160• Volume Growth inSouthern Region
• Improving Network
16
18
120
p gFluidity and Performance
• Positioned for Growth
14100Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Jul
– 340 Employees Furloughed– 830 Locomotives Stored*
7-Day Carloads Velocity **
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
55
y Velocity**As reported to the AAR*Excludes locomotives on hand to manage day-of-week loading cycles.
2012 Revenue Drivers
210
7-Day Monthly Carloadings(000s)
5 5%6%
Impro ed
Pricing Gains
190
200 2006@192
20112012 YTD* up 1%
4.5%
5.5%
5%Improved
FuelCoverage
4.5%
ImprovedFuel
Coverage
170
180
2010@172
@177up 1% 4.5%
150
160@
2009@152
140January December
FY 2011Price
2Q 2012Price &
N F l
1Q 2012Price &
N F l
66
*Through August 25, 2012New FuelNew Fuel
Coal Trends
Other
Southern Powder River Basin*(1st Half)
-13%47,000
Volume Impact(Weekly Carloadings)
Southern Powder River Basin
Other13% 91.6
79.7
13%
35 000
39,000
43,000
2011 2012River Basin
74%
2011 2012
C l d /Ut h*27,000
31,000
35,000
1Q 4Q2Q 3Q
2012(throughAug 25)
• Mild Weather and Low Natural Gas Prices Weaken Demand
14.1 14.2
Colorado/Utah*(1st Half)
+1%
Q QQ Q
• Growth in Exports• 3Q 2012 Volumes Down “low-to-
mid” teens versus 2011
14.1 14.2
2011 2012
77
*Tons in millions2011 2012
Agricultural TrendsUP 2011 Agricultural Revenue MixU S Crop Production & Exports*
G i
UP 2011 Agricultural Revenue MixU.S. Crop Production & Exports*(vs. 2011)
15%Wheat
GrainProducts
Food & Refrigerated
Grain35%
15%
-5%
5% Corn Soybeans
P d ti
Products36%
Grain35%
g29%
Est. Corn Production by State*
-25%
-15%ExportProduction
• Drought expected to impact Grain d G i P d t (i l d(vs. 2011)
-5%
5%
15%and Grain Products (includesEthanol)
• Export Soybeans and Wheat shipments to G lf co ld help offset
LivestockFeeding
33%-25%
-15%
5%
NE IA IL MN KS
shipments to Gulf could help offsetsome of the shortfall
• Continued Strength in Food & Refrigerated Products
88
Refrigerated Products*Source: USDA
Intermodal Trends
73,0002012 YTD*
Domestic & International(Year-over-Year Volume Growth)
UP Intermodal Volumes(7 Day)
3%6%
3%6%
3%
65,000
69,000up 2%
2010
1% 0%2% 3% 3%
-2% -3%
3%
D ti
57,000
61,0002011
20091Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12
-12%
-7%InternationalDomestic
53,000
,
• Growing Domestic Volumes & Highway C i
45,000
49,000
Jan Dec
Conversions• Softer International
Volumes
99
*Through August 25, 2012
7 Day Volume TrendsThrough August 25, 2012
15,000
17,000Automotive
2011 2012
20,000
22,000Chemicals
23,000
25,000Industrial Products
2011 2012
2012
9,000
11,000
13,000
2010 2009 16,000
18,000
,
2010
2011
19,000
21,000
,
2010
2009
5,000
7,000
Jan Dec 12,000
14,000
Jan Dec
2009
15,000
17,000
Jan Dec
009
2012 YTD up 15% 2012 YTD up 12% 2012 YTD up 6%
• Continued Growth in Shale Crude Oil
• Continued Growth in U.S. Auto Sales
• Drilling Demand Drives Non-Metallic
2012 YTD up 15% 2012 YTD up 12% 2012 YTD up 6%
Shale Crude Oil• Lower Fertilizer
Volumes
U.S. Auto Sales• Aging Vehicles
Drives Non MetallicMinerals and Steel
• Stone & Lumber Up• Slowing Scrap &
1010
Metallic Minerals
2012 YTD Volume DriversVs. 2011 (Carloadings in 000s)
Carload Growth vs 2011*
6250
NonmetallicMinerals
Carload Growth vs. 201191 YTD Volumes (000s):
2012 5,8972011 5,840
3519
(17)2
Petroleum
Variance 57
Domestic
Int’l
(17) (25)
ShaleRelated
Vehicles & Parts
Intermodal Cement, Stone & Lumber
Ind Chem & Plastics
Wheat Hazard Waste
Coal Other
(160)
1111
Lumber* As of August 25, 2012
North American Shale Plays
1212
Shale Region Drilling TrendsDrilling Rigs, By Type* VerticalOil Gas Horizontal
200
250Bakken Eagle Ford
200
250
50
100
150
50
100
150
0Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
2011 2012
600 Permian
0Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
2011 2012
D illi ti it i t d
400
600 Permian • Drilling activity remains steady• Shift from natural gas to oil drilling• Continued ramp-up in formations
where UP participates
0
200
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
where UP participates• Overall UP volume growth
opportunity of nearly 2% in 2012 (including crude, frac sand, and pipe)
1313
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul2011 2012 *Source: Baker Hughes
Mexico OpportunitiesStrong Investments – Foreign and Domestic
Volume Growth
708764 776 743
600
750817
Volume Growth(Carloads in Thousands)
6% Volume Growth in 1H 2012
+9%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
600
2011 Business Mix(In Carloads)
IntermodalIndustrial
11%
UP Interchange PointsPorts
Agricultural 15%
Autos44%
Intermodal24%
11%
Chemicals 6%
Ferromex (FXE)KCSMFerrosur (FSRR)New Industrial Investment
44%
1414
Housing Trends
Lumber, Stone & Glass
2.512,000
UP Wkly Housing Carloadings
HousingStarts (mils) • Housing represents 7%
% f
2.0
2.5
10,000
12,000 to 8% of current UP volumes
1.5
6,000
8,000 • Lumber, Stone & Glass down 3,000 carloads a week, a 2% total volume
0 5
1.04,000
growth opportunity
• Including Chemicals &
0.0
0.5
0
2,000
2004 2012*2006 2008 2010
gIntermodal, total volume growth opportunity could be 5% to 6%
1515
*Through August 25, 2012
Pricing Gains and Opportunities
6 0% 6 0%
Core Pricing Gains Legacy Contracts as of Jan 2012($950 Million Remaining)*
6.0% 6.0%
4.5%5.0%
4.5%5.0%
4.5%2013
$350M2015+$500M$500M
2014$100M
Remaining Legacy*
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q'12 2Q'12
Coal~85%
AllOther~15%
1616
*Based on freight revenue for 12-months ended December 31, 2010
Capital InvestmentsReplacement, Growth & Productivity
Category 2011 A t l*
2012E t
Inc / (Dec)
2011
Increasing Capacity in the South
($ Millions) Actual* Est. vs. 2011RoadInfrastructureReplacements
$1,702 $1,670 ($32)Kansas
City
Line & OtherCapacity 311 450 139
CommercialFacilities 111 170 59
DallasFt. Worth
Sh t
Dexter
Little Rock
Pine Bluff
Memphis
Locomotives & Freight Cars 675 815 140
PTC 229 335 106
Technology &Eagle Pass
Houston
Shreveport
SanAntonio
New Orleans
El PasoLivonia
Technology &Other 148 160 12
Total $3,176 $3,600 $424
Laredo
CorridorTerminal
* I l d h it l i t t
1717
* Includes cash capital investments
Increasing Value to Shareholders
• Declared Dividend Increase of 58% in 2011
C tl @ $2 40
Annual Dividends
$1.3121%47%
10%
$1.93
� Currently @ $2.40 per share on Annualized BasisT t d D l d P t
$0.75$0.98 $1.0831%
%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Cumulative Share Repurchases
� Targeted Declared PayoutRatio of 30%
• Opportunistic Share
47.5 47.564.1
78.9 86.5
p(millions)
ppRepurchases� $1.4 Billion in 2011
$848 Milli i 1H 201225.3
5 47.5� $848 Million in 1H 2012� 2007-2012 Average Price
of ~$75 per Share
1818
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H12
Total Shareholder Return
Average Annual Total Return*
Time Frame** UP S&P 500
15 Yrs 11.1% 4.9%
10 Yrs 16.9% 6.4%
5 Yrs 19 8% 1 4%5 Yrs 19.8% 1.4%
3 Yrs 28.4% 13.1%
1 Y 33 6% 17 9%1 Yr 33.6% 17.9%
* Assumes dividends are reinvested in company stock
** Periods ending August 30 2012
1919
Periods ending August 30, 2012
2012 Prospects Remain Positive
� � � � �Solid
Pricing & Value
Proposition
RecordEarnings &
“Sub-70” Op Ratio
DiverseMarket
Opportunities
OngoingProductivity
Focus
IncreasingShareholder
ReturnsProposition Ratio
2020
Question & Answer Session
2121