credit suisse automotive & transportation conference · 2012. 9. 4. · credit suisse...

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Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012 1 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the Corporation’s outlook regarding: economic conditions and growth opportunities; future safety and operating performance; future capital investments; and its ability to generate volume leverage, increase returns to shareholders, and attract new business. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements l ll i ld ith t li it ti if ti tt t di j ti di ti t ti also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results and will not Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward- looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2011, which was filed with the SEC on February 3, 2012. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). F d l ki tt t k l f d b d l if ti il bl th dt th Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and therefore information on or available through the website is not and should not be deemed to be incorporated by 2 and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

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Page 1: Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference · 2012. 9. 4. · Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012 1 Cautionary Information

Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation ConferenceRob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012

11

Cautionary InformationThis presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not

statements of historical fact, including specifically the Corporation’s outlook regarding: economic conditions and growth opportunities; future safety and operating performance; future capital investments; and its ability to generate volume leverage, increase returns to shareholders, and attract new business. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements l ll i l d ith t li it ti i f ti t t t di j ti di ti t tialso generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations,

estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and futureeconomic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.

Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results and will notForward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will notnecessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materiallyfrom those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or y pimplied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available inthe Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2011, which was filed with the SEC on February 3, 2012. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).

F d l ki t t t k l f d b d l i f ti il bl th d t thForward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date thestatements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and therefore information on or available through the website is not and should not be deemed to be incorporated by

22

and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated byreference herein.

Page 2: Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference · 2012. 9. 4. · Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012 1 Cautionary Information

Financial Trends

81.679.3

$4 53$5.53

$6.72

EPSOperating Ratio (%)

7 Day Volume

86.9

77 4 76.1

70.6 70.7

$1.90$2.94

$3.44

$4.53$3.74

77.4

12.4%ROIC (%)*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112005

Free Cash Flow*$1 9(billions)

6 4%

8.2% 8.8%10.2%

8.2%

10.8%

$0.8 $0 7

$1.4

$1.9(billions)

6.4%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112005

$0.2$0.5 $0.5

$0.7

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112005

33

* See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

First Half 2012 Record Results

$3.89Best-Ever

+35%

Earnings Per SharePositives• First Half Records

$2.42$2.89

Best EverFirstHalf– Operating Revenue

– Operating Income– Operating Ratio

2010 2011 2012

– Operating Ratio– Earnings– Employee Safety

Operating Ratio (%)– Customer Satisfaction• Franchise Diversity

Ch ll

72.2 72.9

68.7

Operating Ratio (%)

(4.2) pts

Challenges• Coal Volumes

2010 2011 2012

Best-EverFirstHalf

44

2010 2011 2012

Page 3: Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference · 2012. 9. 4. · Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012 1 Cautionary Information

Consistent Network Performance

28200• Agility and Resiliency Demonstrated with

(000s) (MPH)

24

26180

Resources and Service Plan

• Volume Growth in

20

22

140

160• Volume Growth inSouthern Region

• Improving Network

16

18

120

p gFluidity and Performance

• Positioned for Growth

14100Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Jul

– 340 Employees Furloughed– 830 Locomotives Stored*

7-Day Carloads Velocity **

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

55

y Velocity**As reported to the AAR*Excludes locomotives on hand to manage day-of-week loading cycles.

2012 Revenue Drivers

210

7-Day Monthly Carloadings(000s)

5 5%6%

Impro ed

Pricing Gains

190

200 2006@192

20112012 YTD* up 1%

4.5%

5.5%

5%Improved

FuelCoverage

4.5%

ImprovedFuel

Coverage

170

180

2010@172

@177up 1% 4.5%

150

160@

2009@152

140January December

FY 2011Price

2Q 2012Price &

N F l

1Q 2012Price &

N F l

66

*Through August 25, 2012New FuelNew Fuel

Page 4: Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference · 2012. 9. 4. · Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012 1 Cautionary Information

Coal Trends

Other

Southern Powder River Basin*(1st Half)

-13%47,000

Volume Impact(Weekly Carloadings)

Southern Powder River Basin

Other13% 91.6

79.7

13%

35 000

39,000

43,000

2011 2012River Basin

74%

2011 2012

C l d /Ut h*27,000

31,000

35,000

1Q 4Q2Q 3Q

2012(throughAug 25)

• Mild Weather and Low Natural Gas Prices Weaken Demand

14.1 14.2

Colorado/Utah*(1st Half)

+1%

Q QQ Q

• Growth in Exports• 3Q 2012 Volumes Down “low-to-

mid” teens versus 2011

14.1 14.2

2011 2012

77

*Tons in millions2011 2012

Agricultural TrendsUP 2011 Agricultural Revenue MixU S Crop Production & Exports*

G i

UP 2011 Agricultural Revenue MixU.S. Crop Production & Exports*(vs. 2011)

15%Wheat

GrainProducts

Food & Refrigerated

Grain35%

15%

-5%

5% Corn Soybeans

P d ti

Products36%

Grain35%

g29%

Est. Corn Production by State*

-25%

-15%ExportProduction

• Drought expected to impact Grain d G i P d t (i l d(vs. 2011)

-5%

5%

15%and Grain Products (includesEthanol)

• Export Soybeans and Wheat shipments to G lf co ld help offset

LivestockFeeding

33%-25%

-15%

5%

NE IA IL MN KS

shipments to Gulf could help offsetsome of the shortfall

• Continued Strength in Food & Refrigerated Products

88

Refrigerated Products*Source: USDA

Page 5: Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference · 2012. 9. 4. · Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012 1 Cautionary Information

Intermodal Trends

73,0002012 YTD*

Domestic & International(Year-over-Year Volume Growth)

UP Intermodal Volumes(7 Day)

3%6%

3%6%

3%

65,000

69,000up 2%

2010

1% 0%2% 3% 3%

-2% -3%

3%

D ti

57,000

61,0002011

20091Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

-12%

-7%InternationalDomestic

53,000

,

• Growing Domestic Volumes & Highway C i

45,000

49,000

Jan Dec

Conversions• Softer International

Volumes

99

*Through August 25, 2012

7 Day Volume TrendsThrough August 25, 2012

15,000

17,000Automotive

2011 2012

20,000

22,000Chemicals

23,000

25,000Industrial Products

2011 2012

2012

9,000

11,000

13,000

2010 2009 16,000

18,000

,

2010

2011

19,000

21,000

,

2010

2009

5,000

7,000

Jan Dec 12,000

14,000

Jan Dec

2009

15,000

17,000

Jan Dec

009

2012 YTD up 15% 2012 YTD up 12% 2012 YTD up 6%

• Continued Growth in Shale Crude Oil

• Continued Growth in U.S. Auto Sales

• Drilling Demand Drives Non-Metallic

2012 YTD up 15% 2012 YTD up 12% 2012 YTD up 6%

Shale Crude Oil• Lower Fertilizer

Volumes

U.S. Auto Sales• Aging Vehicles

Drives Non MetallicMinerals and Steel

• Stone & Lumber Up• Slowing Scrap &

1010

Metallic Minerals

Page 6: Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference · 2012. 9. 4. · Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012 1 Cautionary Information

2012 YTD Volume DriversVs. 2011 (Carloadings in 000s)

Carload Growth vs 2011*

6250

NonmetallicMinerals

Carload Growth vs. 201191 YTD Volumes (000s):

2012 5,8972011 5,840

3519

(17)2

Petroleum

Variance 57

Domestic

Int’l

(17) (25)

ShaleRelated

Vehicles & Parts

Intermodal Cement, Stone & Lumber

Ind Chem & Plastics

Wheat Hazard Waste

Coal Other

(160)

1111

Lumber* As of August 25, 2012

North American Shale Plays

1212

Page 7: Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference · 2012. 9. 4. · Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012 1 Cautionary Information

Shale Region Drilling TrendsDrilling Rigs, By Type* VerticalOil Gas Horizontal

200

250Bakken Eagle Ford

200

250

50

100

150

50

100

150

0Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

2011 2012

600 Permian

0Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

2011 2012

D illi ti it i t d

400

600 Permian • Drilling activity remains steady• Shift from natural gas to oil drilling• Continued ramp-up in formations

where UP participates

0

200

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

where UP participates• Overall UP volume growth

opportunity of nearly 2% in 2012 (including crude, frac sand, and pipe)

1313

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul2011 2012 *Source: Baker Hughes

Mexico OpportunitiesStrong Investments – Foreign and Domestic

Volume Growth

708764 776 743

600

750817

Volume Growth(Carloads in Thousands)

6% Volume Growth in 1H 2012

+9%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

600

2011 Business Mix(In Carloads)

IntermodalIndustrial

11%

UP Interchange PointsPorts

Agricultural 15%

Autos44%

Intermodal24%

11%

Chemicals 6%

Ferromex (FXE)KCSMFerrosur (FSRR)New Industrial Investment

44%

1414

Page 8: Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference · 2012. 9. 4. · Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012 1 Cautionary Information

Housing Trends

Lumber, Stone & Glass

2.512,000

UP Wkly Housing Carloadings

HousingStarts (mils) • Housing represents 7%

% f

2.0

2.5

10,000

12,000 to 8% of current UP volumes

1.5

6,000

8,000 • Lumber, Stone & Glass down 3,000 carloads a week, a 2% total volume

0 5

1.04,000

growth opportunity

• Including Chemicals &

0.0

0.5

0

2,000

2004 2012*2006 2008 2010

gIntermodal, total volume growth opportunity could be 5% to 6%

1515

*Through August 25, 2012

Pricing Gains and Opportunities

6 0% 6 0%

Core Pricing Gains Legacy Contracts as of Jan 2012($950 Million Remaining)*

6.0% 6.0%

4.5%5.0%

4.5%5.0%

4.5%2013

$350M2015+$500M$500M

2014$100M

Remaining Legacy*

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q'12 2Q'12

Coal~85%

AllOther~15%

1616

*Based on freight revenue for 12-months ended December 31, 2010

Page 9: Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference · 2012. 9. 4. · Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012 1 Cautionary Information

Capital InvestmentsReplacement, Growth & Productivity

Category 2011 A t l*

2012E t

Inc / (Dec)

2011

Increasing Capacity in the South

($ Millions) Actual* Est. vs. 2011RoadInfrastructureReplacements

$1,702 $1,670 ($32)Kansas

City

Line & OtherCapacity 311 450 139

CommercialFacilities 111 170 59

DallasFt. Worth

Sh t

Dexter

Little Rock

Pine Bluff

Memphis

Locomotives & Freight Cars 675 815 140

PTC 229 335 106

Technology &Eagle Pass

Houston

Shreveport

SanAntonio

New Orleans

El PasoLivonia

Technology &Other 148 160 12

Total $3,176 $3,600 $424

Laredo

CorridorTerminal

* I l d h it l i t t

1717

* Includes cash capital investments

Increasing Value to Shareholders

• Declared Dividend Increase of 58% in 2011

C tl @ $2 40

Annual Dividends

$1.3121%47%

10%

$1.93

� Currently @ $2.40 per share on Annualized BasisT t d D l d P t

$0.75$0.98 $1.0831%

%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Cumulative Share Repurchases

� Targeted Declared PayoutRatio of 30%

• Opportunistic Share

47.5 47.564.1

78.9 86.5

p(millions)

ppRepurchases� $1.4 Billion in 2011

$848 Milli i 1H 201225.3

5 47.5� $848 Million in 1H 2012� 2007-2012 Average Price

of ~$75 per Share

1818

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H12

Page 10: Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference · 2012. 9. 4. · Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012 1 Cautionary Information

Total Shareholder Return

Average Annual Total Return*

Time Frame** UP S&P 500

15 Yrs 11.1% 4.9%

10 Yrs 16.9% 6.4%

5 Yrs 19 8% 1 4%5 Yrs 19.8% 1.4%

3 Yrs 28.4% 13.1%

1 Y 33 6% 17 9%1 Yr 33.6% 17.9%

* Assumes dividends are reinvested in company stock

** Periods ending August 30 2012

1919

Periods ending August 30, 2012

2012 Prospects Remain Positive

� � � � �Solid

Pricing & Value

Proposition

RecordEarnings &

“Sub-70” Op Ratio

DiverseMarket

Opportunities

OngoingProductivity

Focus

IncreasingShareholder

ReturnsProposition Ratio

2020

Page 11: Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference · 2012. 9. 4. · Credit Suisse Automotive & Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO – September 6, 2012 1 Cautionary Information

Question & Answer Session

2121