creating a sustainable food future: interim findings

December, 2013

Photo Source: Neil Palmer (CIAT)

CREATING A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE (interim findings)

WRI.org/WRR

HOW CAN THE WORLD FEED MORE THAN 9 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2050 IN A MANNER THAT

ADVANCES DEVELOPMENT AND REDUCES PRESSURE ON THE ENVIRONMENT?

Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards

2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

The world needs to close the food gap

Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at:

<http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx> (accessed December 13, 2012).

The world needs agriculture to support economic development

The world needs to reduce agriculture’s impact on the environmentShare of global impact (percent in 2010)

Source: WRI analysis based on IEA (2012); EIA (2012); EPA (2012); Houghton (2008); FAO (2011); FAO (2012); Foley et al. (2005).

7070

100% = 3862 km3 H2O

2437

100% = 49 Gt CO2e 100% = 13.3 bn ha

WATER WITHDRAWAL

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

EARTH’S LANDMASS (EX-ANTARCTICA)

Source: Data: Ramankutty, N., A. T. Evan, C. Monfreda, and J. A. Foley. “Farming the planet: 1. Geographic distribution of global agricultural lands in the year 2000.” Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 22: GB1003, doi:1010.1029/2007GB002952. Map: Navin Ramankutty, Dept. of Geography, McGill University.

Croplands and pasture occupy half of the world’s vegetated landDistribution of croplands and pastures (2000)

.

Note: “Vegetated lands” excludes permanent ice cover, deserts, and inland water bodies.

37 percent of Earth’s landmass (ex-Antarctica) is used for food production (100% = 13.3 billion hectares)

Source: FAO. 2011. The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture. Rome: FAO.

* Permanent ice cover, desert, etc. When excluding deserts, ice, and inland water bodies, nearly 50 percent of land is used to grow food.

Note: Figures may not equal 100% due to rounding

Even if all food produced in 2009 were evenly distributed to all people in 2050, the world would still need 974 more calories per person per day

Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2012. “FAOSTAT.” Rome: FAO; United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Medium fertility scenario.

Note: Data reflects food for direct human consumption. It excludes food crops grown for animal feed and biofuels. See endnotes for assumptions used to generate the global average daily energy requirement per person.

One way to (unsustainably) feed the planet . . .

Photo source: PM Magazin.

A menu of solutions is required to sustainably close the food gap Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)*

Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels

Illustrative

Menu for a sustainable food future

Contributes to feeding everyone in 2050 while satisfying (or not negatively impacting) a number of criteria:

Poverty alleviation

Gender

Ecosystems

Climate

Water

Photo source: Andrew So.

Menu for a sustainable food future (preliminary)

Consumption Reduce food loss and waste Shift to healthier diets Achieve replacement level fertility Reduce biofuel demand for food crops

Production Sustainably increase crop yields - Boost yields through attentive crop breeding- Improve soil and water management- Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands

Sustainably increase “livestock” productivity- Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands- Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch- Increase productivity of aquaculture

Production methods

Improve livestock feeding efficiency Increase the efficiency of fertilizer use Manage rice paddies to reduce emissions

Photo source: Andrew So. .

Reduce food loss and wasteMenu item: Reduce food loss and waste

Photo Source: WRAP.

32%

24% of global food supply by energy content (calories)

of global food supply by weight

Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste—extent, causes and prevention. Rome: FAO.

A significant share of food intended for human consumption is lost or wasted between the farm and the fork

US$1600/year for an American family of four

£680/year for the average household in the UK

US$32 billion worth of food lost or wasted in China each year

The economic impact of food loss and waste is large

Source: WRAP. n.d. “Solutions to prevent household food waste.” ; WRAP. 2011. “New estimates for household food and drink waste in the UK.”; Zhou, W. 2013. “Food Waste and Recycling in China: A Growing Trend?”


Note: Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

Where food is lost or wasted along the value chain varies by region(Percent of kcal lost or wasted)

Photo sources, from left: Luke Chan; OZinOH; Fonseca-CIMMYT; Rick; JillWillRun.


Food is lost or wasted along the entire value chain


Food loss “near the farm” is more prevalent in developing countries while food waste “near the fork” is more prevalent in developed countries100% = 1.5 quadrillion kcal


Of total food loss and waste, cereals account for the most in terms of calories, while fruits and vegetables account for the most by mass


Roots and tubers are the food category with the most lost and waste relative to total production(Percent of kcal produced per category)

Note: Values displayed are of waste as a percent of food supply, defined here as the sum of the “Food” and “Processing” columns of the FAO Food Balance Sheet.


About half of the world’s food loss and waste occurs in Asia(100% = 1.5 quadrillion kcal)

Note: Number may not sum to 100 due to rounding.


North America and Oceania have the highest per capita food loss and wasteKcal/capita/day


North America and Oceania have the highest per capita food loss and waste, primarily occurring at consumptionKcal/capita/day

Note: Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

Greenhouse gas emissions Land use

The environmental impact of food loss and waste is large

Source: Kummu, M., H. de Moel, M. Porkka, S. Siebert, O. Varis, and P. J. Ward. 2012. “Lost food, wasted resources: Global food supply chain losses and their impacts on freshwater, cropland, and fertiliser use.” Science of the Total Environment 438: 477-489.

A range of approaches exists for reducing food loss and waste along the value chain(Not exhaustive)

Source: Lipinski et al. 2013 Reducing Food Loss and Waste. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.

Small metal silos

Photo source: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).

Evaporative coolers

Photo source: Dave Cronin.

Source: Grace, J., U. Ugbe, and A. Sanni. 2012. “Innovations in the Cowpea Sector of Northern Nigeria: Research Into Use Nigeria.” Presentation.

PICS bags generate cost savings compared to traditional insecticide use in NigeriaNaira (local currency)

Plastic crates

Photo source: twatson.

Date labeling

Photo source: Ami Becker.

Source: Nielsen, S. J. and B. Popkin. 2003. “Patterns and Trends in Food Portion Sizes, 1977-1998.” Journal of the American Medical Association: 289 (4): 450-453.

Portion sizes in the United States are increasing over time(Kcal per portion)

Trayless cafeterias

Photo source: Travis Nep Smith.

Cutting in half the rate of food loss and waste by 2050 would reduce the food gap by ~22%Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)*


Available food (2006)

Baseline available

food needed (2050)

9,500

16,000

* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels

Reduce rate of food loss

and waste by 50%

1,400

Recommendation 1:Develop a global “food loss and waste protocol”

Photo source: Endangered Bodies.

Who’s developing it

http://www.unmultimedia.org/radio/kiswahili/2012/01/

http://www.theconsumergoodsforum.com/index.aspx

Recommendation 2:Set food loss and waste reduction targets

Photo source: Andy Rogers.

Recommendation 3:Increase investment in postharvest loss research in developing countries

Photo source: International Rice Research Institute (IRRI).

Recommendation 4:Create entities devoted to reducing food waste in developing countries

Recommendation 5:Accelerate and support initiatives to reduce food loss and waste

Photo Source: Ace Diets.

Menu item: Shift to healthier diets

Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

FAO projects that per capita consumption of livestock will grow for most regions by 2050

Beef is a far less efficient source of calories and protein than milk and other meatsPercent or “units of edible output per 100 units of feed or grass input”

Source: Terrestrial animal products: Wirsenius et al. (2010) (extra unpublished tables), Wirsenius (2000).

Finfish and shrimp: WRI analysis based on USDA (2013), NRC (2011), Tacon and Metian (2008), Wirsenius (2000), and FAO (1989).

Note: “Edible output” refers to the calorie and protein content of bone-free carcass.

Source: GLEAM in Gerber, P. J., H. Steinfeld, B. Henderson, A. Mottet, C. Opio, J. Dijkman, A. Falcucci, and G. Tempio. 2013. Tackling climate change through livestock: A global assessment of emissions and mitigation opportunities. Rome: FAO.

Beef production generates 6 times more greenhouse gas emissions per unit of protein than pork, chicken, and egg production Kilograms of CO2e per kilogram of protein

Photo Source: EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection.

Menu item: Achieve replacement level fertility

The world’s population is projected to grow from 7 billion (2012) to 9.6 billion (2050) Population (in billions)

Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” = Rest of Africa.

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total population by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Medium fertility scenario.

Half of projected population growth from 2012–2050 will be in Sub-Saharan AfricaPercent, 100% = 2.5 billion people

Note: Figures may not equal 100% due to rounding. Europe is projected to decline by 21 million people (less than 1 percent decrease) while Australia and Oceania projected to grow by 17 million people (less than 1 percent increase) between 2012 and 2050.

All regions except Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to reach replacement level fertility by 2050Total fertility rate

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total fertility by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.

Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” = Rest of Africa.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest total fertility ratesTotal fertility rate (2005–2010)

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA). 2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest share of women with at least a lower secondary educationPercent of women ages 20–39 with at least a lower secondary education (2005–2010)

Source: Harper, S. 2012. “People and the planet.” University of Oxford. Presentation at The Royal Society, London, April 2012.

Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49).” Data retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest share of women using contraceptionPercent of women ages 15–49 using contraception (2005–2010)

Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest child mortality ratesMortality of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births (2005–2010)

Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births).” Data retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.

Photo Source: Travis Lupick.

Approach 1: Ensure girls get at least a secondary education

Photo Source: Travis Lupick.

Approach 2: Increase access to reproductive health services, including family planning

Photo Source: UK Department for International Development (DFID).

Approach 3: Reduce infant and child mortality

Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Fertility rate, total (births per woman).” Data retrieved November 30, 2012, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.

Total fertility rates can decline rapidlyTotal fertility rate

Achieving replacement level fertility can bring about a “demographic dividend”


Singapore

Hong Kong

South Korea

Taiwan

Achieving replacement level fertility can avoid additional land conversion for agriculture

WRI.org/WRR

Menu item: Limit transportation biofuel demand for food crops

Photo Source: Ace Diets.

32 percent of current global crop energy would be needed to produce just 10 percent of transportation fuel in 2050 with the present biofuel mixPercent

Source: Heimlich, R. and T. Searchinger. Forthcoming. Calculating Crop Demands for Liquid Biofuels. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.





Production methods


Photo source: Andrew So..

Most studies project net adverse impacts on crop yields due to climate change(3° C warmer world)

Source: World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Note: Areas in gray contain no croplands.Source: World Resources Institute and The Coca-Cola Company. 2011. "Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas Global Maps 1.0." Accessible at <http://wri.org/aqueduct>. Cropped areas from Ramankutty, N., A. T. Evan, C. Monfreda, and J. A. Foley. 2008. “Farming the planet: 1. Geographic distribution of global agricultural lands in the year 2000.” Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 22: GB1003, doi:1010.1029/2007GB002952.

Water stress will increase in many agricultural areas by 2025 due to growing water use and higher temperatures(Based on IPCC Scenario A1B)

http://wri.org/aqueduct



Different analysts project different changes in agricultural land area by 2050 under a “business as usual” scenario

* Data not available or not discussed in the respective study.Source: GLOBIOM analysis prepared by Schneider et al. 2011. “Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption.” Agricultural Systems 104 (2): 204–215; FAO projection from Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO; OECD projection prepared by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and reported in OECD. 2011. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Climate Change. (pre-release version) Paris: OECD.

The primary source of agricultural growth has shifted from input increases to efficiency gainsRate of output growth (% per year)

Source: Fuglie, K. 2012. "Productivity Growth and Technology Capital in the Global Agricultural Economy.” In K. Fuglie, S. L. Wang, and V. E. Ball, eds. Productivity Growth in Agriculture: An International Perspective. Oxfordshire, UK: CAB International.

Photo: Ace Diets

Menu item: Boost yields through attentive crop breeding

Photo Source: Morten Bentzon Sorenson.

The promise of the “other GM” . . .

Photo Source: Wikipedia.

Menu item: Improve land and water management practices

Photo Source: Chris Reij.

Source: Hengl , T., and H. Reuter. 2009. “Topsoil organic carbon based on the HWSD [Data file].” ISRIC World Soil Information. Accessible at: <http://worldgrids.org/duku.php?id=wiki:tochws>. Retrieved May 5, 2013.

Soils organic matter concentrations vary greatly around the worldTopsoil organic carbon (percent mass fraction)

Source: Henao, J., and C. A. Baanante. 2006. “Agricultural production and soil nutrient mining in Africa: implications for resource conservation and policy development.” Technical Bulletin T-72. Muscle Shoals, Alabama: International Center for Soil Fertility and Agricultural Development. Cited in A. Noble. 2012. The Slumbering Giant: land and water degradation. Canberra, Australia: Crawford Fund Proceedings.

Several regions in Africa have relatively high rates ofnutrient depletion on agricultural landsAnnual nutrient depletion, kg NPK/ha/year

Sub-Saharan Africa uses much less fertilizer per hectare than any other regionKilograms per hectare

Source: IFDC. 2013. “APPI Gross Margin Survey: FDP’s Yield and Financial Benefits Proven,” in IFDC Report Vol. 38 No. 2. Accessible at: <www.ifdc.org>.

Cereal yields in Sub-Saharan Africa are much lower than other regionsMetric tons per hectare

Source: Derived from FAO. 2012. “FAOSTAT.” Rome: FAO; graph by IFDC.

From 1961–2001, food production increases in Sub-Saharan Africa were achieved mainly by expanding the area of cropland

Note: Baseline data in 1961 is given the value of 100; subsequent data for yield and area are in units of percent change relative to 1961.

Source: Henao, J., and C. A. Baanante. 2006. “Agricultural production and soil nutrient mining in Africa: implications for resource conservation and policy development.” Technical Bulletin T-72. Muscle Shoals, Alabama: International Center for Soil Fertility and Agricultural Development. Cited in A. Noble. 2012. The Slumbering Giant: land and water degradation. Canberra, Australia: Crawford Fund Proceedings.

Conservation agriculture is widely used in many continents, but not in Africa

Source: Shitumbanuma, V. 2012. “Analyses of Crop Trials Under Faidherbia albida.” Lusaka, Zambia: Conservation Farming Unit, University of Zambia.

Conservation agriculture with intercropping of Faidherbia albida trees (agroforestry) in Malawi

Photo Source: W. T. Bunderson.

Agroforestry

Photo Source: Attari Boukar.

Source: Shitumbanuma, V. 2012. “Analyses of Crop Trials Under Faidherbia albida.” Lusaka, Zambia: Conservation Farming Unit, University of Zambia.

Maize yields in Zambia are higher under Faidherbia treesKilograms per hectare

Note: Average maize grain yields from trial sites under and outside canopies of mature Faidherbia albida trees across regions in Zambia.

Water harvesting

Photo Source: Sahel Eco..

A combination of water harvesting practices increases grain yields more than one practice (Burkina Faso)Kilograms per hectare

Source: Sawadogo, H. 2008. Impact des aménagements de conservation des eaux et des sols sur les systèmes de production, les rendements et la fertilité des sols au Nord du Plateau Central du Burkina Faso. Ouagadougou and Amsterdam: Etude Sahel Burkina Faso, CILDSS and VU University Amsterdam.

Note: These two groups of villages are located on the northern central plateau of Burkina Faso. “BAU” = business as usual.

Conservation agriculture increased maize yields in Malawi in 2011, and combining it with agroforestry (intercropping of Faidherbia trees) increased yields even further Metric tons per hectare

Source: Bunderson, W. T. 2012. “Faidherbia albida: the Malawi experience.” Lilongwe, Malawi: Total LandCare.

Source: Mazvimavi, D., Z. Hoko, L. Jonker, I. Nhapi, and A. Senzanje. 2008. “Integrated Water Resources Management: From Concept to Practice.” Editorial. Journal of the Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 33: 609–613.

Water harvesting combined with conservation agriculture increases gross margins for farmers in ZimbabweGross margins, US$ per hectare

Note: Data from nine districts in Zimbabwe, across rainfall zones.

Micro-dosing

Photo Source: ICRISAT.

Source: Sawadogo, H. 2013. “Effects of microdosing and soil and water conservation techniques on securing crop yields in northwestern Burkina Faso.” Working Paper prepared for the Institut de l’Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles (Burkina Faso).

Micro-dosing further increases sorghum yields beyond other land and water management practices (Burkina Faso, 2009–11)Kilograms per hectare

Source: IFDC. 2011. “Strategic Alliance for Agricultural Development in Africa (SAADA) End of Project Report.” Accessible at: <www.ifdc.org.>

ISFM contributed to yield increases of three major crops for farmers in West Africa, 2006–10Kilograms per hectare

Note: No 2006 data was available for maize.

Revenues increased significantly for farmers adopting ISFM in West Africa, 2006–10US$ per hectare

Note: No 2006 data was available or groundnuts. Data converted from CFA francs using a conversion rate of 1 CFA franc = .0021 US Dollar.

Source: IFDC. 2011. “Strategic Alliance for Agricultural Development in Africa (SAADA) End of Project Report.” Accessible at: <www.ifdc.org.>

Source: IFDC. 2012. “Catalyze Accelerated Agricultural Intensification for Social and Environmental Stability.” Project Summary. Accessible at: <www.ifdc.org>.

Farmers in Central Africa benefited greatly from increased crop yields and revenues following the adoption of ISFM practices

Annual benefits

Source: WRI analysis using the following datasets: Protected areas: IUCN and UNEP. 2013. The World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA). Cambridge, UK: UNEP-WCMC. Croplands: Fritz, S. and L. See. 2013. Global Hybrid Cropland. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA and IFPRI. Precipitation isohyets: FAO/UNEP Desertification and Mapping Project. 1986. Africa Mean Annual Rainfall. Geneva, Switzerland: UNEP/GRID.

Agroforestry and water harvesting could be scaled up on more than 300 million hectares in sub-Saharan Africa

Integrated landscape approaches take account of the importance of ecosystem services in managing agricultural landscapes

Success in scaling up improved land and water management requires attention to gender

• Women are responsible for 80 percent of agricultural work

• Labor inputs of women exceed those of men by 10-12 hours a week

• 95 percent of external resources (seeds, tools) are channeled to men

• Women often do not have the same rights and management authority as men

• Add photo to illustrate importance of gender

Source: De Sarkar, S. 2011. “Gendering joint forest management.” IUCN Arbor Vitae Issue 43: 10.Photo Source: Chris Reij.

Approach 1: Increase communication and outreach


Approach 2: Support institutional and policy reforms

Photo Source: Reseau MARP Burkina.

Approach 3: Support capacity building


Approach 4: Mainstream investing in improved land and water management

Photo Source: Attari Boukar.

Menu item: Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands

Photo Source: Sekala.

Source: Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO.

What some call “potential for cropland expansion” is often forest and savanna Million hectares

Source: Gingold, B. et al. 2012. How to Identify Degraded Land for Sustainable Palm Oil in Indonesia. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute.

There is a need to map low-carbon areas potentially suitable for oil palm

Menu item: Increase pastureland productivity

Photo Source: Carlos Ramalhete.

90%

80% increase for dairy

increase for beef

Source: Searchinger et al. 2013

Global absolute demand for beef and dairy is projected to skyrocket between 2006 and 2050

Ruminants mostly eat grasses and only a relatively small amount of grain-based feedsPercent, 100% = 6705 Tg dry matter (global, 2010)

Ruminant meat

15%

15%

9%

16%

Ruminant dairyNon-ruminants

(pigs, poultry, etc.)

Soybean, starchy roots, & other edible crops

Grass: cropland pasture

Food industry by-products & waste

Non-agricultural herbage & browse

Cereal grains

Grass: forage crops (hay & silage)

Crop residues

Grass: permanent pasture & browse

Total (percent)

Total (percent)

Note: Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding. Soybean and other oil meals are included in “Food industry by-products” while whole soybeans are included in “Soybeans, starchy roots and other edible crops”. Source: Wirsenius, S., et al. 2010. How much land is needed for global food production under scenarios of dietary changes and livestock productivity increases in 2030? Agr. Syst.

Feed type

29

5

1

12

2

7

2

58

15

4

6

2

1

28

1

1

7

4

1

14

44

10

2

18

11

7

7

1

100

Selected approaches for improving pasture and grazing land productivity

• Improve ruminant health care

• Improve breeds

• Rotate grazing

• Plant better grasses and legumes

• Incorporate supplements

• Integrate silvopastoral practices

Photo Source: Luis Solarte/CIPAV.

Menu item: Reduce and then stabilize wild fish catch

Photo Source: NOAA.

Photo Source: WorldFish Bangladesh Office.

Menu item: Improve productivity and environmental performance of aquaculture

The world needs to close an “animal protein gap”Global annual animal protein availability, million tons

Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).

Fish are important for food and nutrition securitySupply of animal-based protein (2009), percent (100% = 31 g / capita / day)

Source: FAO (2012).

But the wild fish catch has peaked…Million tons

Note: “Wild catch” includes finfish, mollusks, crustaceans, and other aquatic animals from marine and freshwater ecosystems. It excludes all aquaculture.

Source: FAO (2014).

…even while fishing effort continues to risePercentage of marine fish stocks assessed

Source: FAO (2014).

Aquaculture has emerged to meet fish demandMillion tons

Sources: FAO (2012a), FAO (2012b), FAO (2013), FAO (2014).

Aquaculture is diverse Production (2012), 100% = 66.6 million tons

Source: FAO (2014).

Nearly 90 percent of aquaculture production is in AsiaTons (2012)

Source: FAO (2014).

Aquaculture production must more than double by 2050 to satisfy projected fish demandMillion tons

Sources: Production data 1961–2010: FAO (2014a), FAO (2014b). Aquaculture production projections 2011–2050: Authors’ calculations assuming a linear growth rate of 2 Mt per year.

Aquaculture growth could close 14 percent of the “animal protein gap”Global annual animal protein availability, million tons

Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).

Aquaculture growth to 140 Mt in 2050 could contribute to economic development

Source: Authors’ calculations based on FAO (2014) and World Bank, FAO, and IFPRI (2013).

Photo: WorldFish/Mike Lusmore/Duckrabbit.

$308BFarm gate value / year

Aquaculture growth to 140 Mt in 2050 could contribute to economic development

Source: Authors’ calculations based on FAO (2014).

Photo: WorldFish/Mike Lusmore/Duckrabbit.

176Mlivelihoods

Farmed fish convert feed to food efficientlyPercent or “units of edible output per 100 units of feed input”

Sources: Terrestrial animal products: Wirsenius et al. (2010), Wirsenius (2000). Finfish and shrimp: WRI analysis based on USDA (2013), NRC (2011), Tacon and Metian (2008), Wirsenius (2000), and FAO (1989).

Note: “Edible output” refers to the calorie and protein content of bone-free carcass.

But aquaculture also creates environmental impacts and is facing resource constraints

Image: ©2013 Google Earth, DigitalGlobe.

• Land• Water• Energy• Feed• Fish diseases• Fish escapes

Sustainable aquaculture growth entails…

Photo: WorldFish/Sakil.

Increasing farmed fish production per unit of:

• Land• Water• Feed• Energy

Minimizing:

• Water pollution• Fish diseases• Fish escapes

The aquaculture industry has reduced the share of fishmeal in farmed fish dietsPercent

Source: Tacon and Metian. 2008. “Global overview on the use of fish meal and fish oil in industrially compounded aquafeeds: Trends and Future Prospects.” Aquaculture 285: 146–158; Tacon et al. 2011. Demand and supply of feed ingredients for farmed fish and crustaceans. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper 564. Rome: FAO.

Note: Fishmeal use varies within and between countries; the figures presented are global means. Data represent observations between 1995-2008, and projections for 2009-2020.

The aquaculture industry will need to further reduce the share of fishmeal and fish oil in farmed fish diets to prevent hitting limits in global supply of these ingredientsMillion tons

Source: FAO (2012) (Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics); FAO (2012) (Food Outlook November 2012); OECD/FAO (2012); Seafish (2011); Tacon et al. (2011); Tacon and Metian (2008); WRI analysis.

Note: Assumes the following to 2050: a linear growth in aquaculture production to 140 Mt, the same species mix as projected in 2020, and the same shares of fishmeal and fish oil in farmed fish diets as projected in 2020.





Production methods


Photo source: Andrew So.

Source: WRI analysis based on UNEP (2012), FAO (2012e), EIA (2012), IEA (2012), and Houghton (2008) with adjustments.

From where do direct agricultural production greenhouse gas emissions come (2010)?

Note: Figures may not equal 100% due to rounding.* LULUCF = Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry.** Includes emissions from on-farm energy consumption as well as from manufacturing of farm tractors, irrigation pumps, other machinery, and key inputs such as fertilizer. It excludes emissions from the transport of food.*** Excludes emissions from agricultural energy sources described above.

“Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise 70 percent of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C warmer worldGt CO2e per year

Sources: WRI analysis based on IEA (2012), EIA (2012), EPA (2012), Houghton (2008), and OECD (2012).

Source: FAO. 2012. Global forest land -use change 1990-2005. Rome: FAO.

Gross forest losses are far greater than net forest losses because agricultural lands are shiftingThousands of hectares per year

Menu item: Improve efficiency of ruminant livestock

• More digestible and higher protein feeds

• Higher quality forage

• Improved breeds

Photo Source: Eduardo Amorim

Menu item: Make fertilization more efficient

• Practices Improved application timing Subsurface placement Improved technical training

• Incentives Decoupling training and sales Subsidy reforms

• Technology innovations

Photo Source: CIMMYT.

Menu item: Manage rice paddies to reduce emissions

• Alternate flooding and drying

• Potassium inputs

• Water-saving rice varieties

• Etc…

Photo Source: World Bank.

WRI.org/WRR

creating a sustainable food future: interim findings

Education

food production

food wasteextent

worth of food

global food losses

household food waste

food crops production

significant share of

economic impact of food