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Rooftop Solar PhotovoltaicRooftop Solar PhotovoltaicSeventh Plan Approach to Analysis

CRAC November 13, 2014

Outline

Approach for Seventh Plan

Background

Initial Findings

Issues for CRAC Feedback

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Why Solar PV at ConservationAdvisory Committee?

A “direct-application” renewable resource d th R i l A tunder the Regional Act

But does not get 10% Act Credit

Largely a consumer-side resource

Reduces load on the grid like EE

S b d d t d it Somebody needs to do it

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Issues for CRAC Is the approach appropriate?

F t t d li Forecast cost decline

Total potential available: Max number installs

Baseline adoption rate into load forecast

Is three geographic areas sufficient?

Ramp Rate: How fast could it be installed?p

How to estimate net back to grid

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Approach for Seventh Plan

1) Estimate Rooftop Solar PV System Cost

2) Forecast Changes in Cost & Performance

3) Estimate Total Resource Potential

4) Forecast Status Quo Adoption Rate

5) Status Quo Adoption of PV Reduces Load Forecast5 Q p

6) Remaining Potential Made Available to RPM

7) Vet Assumptions with Advisory Committees

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By 2012 over 10,000 Utility Customers Installed 66 MW of PV Capacity (MW)

Selling back about 1 aMW of Power

Net Metering Customer Count

Capacity Installed (MW)

MWh of Power Sold back to utility

(MW)

Idaho 349 2 2 

Montana 1,010 4 122 

Oregon* 6,269 43 8,687 

Washington 3,222 17 932 

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Region 10,850 66 9,742 

Source: EIA 861 annual Utility Net metering data

*OPUC’s reports that by 2013 about 8000 customers in Oregon are on net‐metering. 

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Installed Cost FallingEnergy Trust of Oregon Program Data

8000

9000$)

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

t per kW

 installed (2012$

0

1000

2000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Cost

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Commercial Costs Lower than Residential

5000

6000

led 

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Cost per kW

 Install

(2012$)

Commercial

Residential

Residential costs drop 20% since 2012

Commercial costs drop by one-third since 2012

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2012 2013 2014

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Average Residential Size Going Up(Energy Trust of Oregon Data)

2012 = 4.2 kW

2014 = 5.3 kW

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Cost & Savings Inputs(In 2012$ for a 2014 Install)

Element Value(s) Source/Method

Capital Cost ($/Watt DC) $4.5 Res, $3.8 Com ETO 2014 cost

Annual O&M ($/Watt DC) $0.032 Res, $0.024 Com NREL

Inverter Replacement 10‐Yr Res, 15‐Year Com NREL

Typical System Size 5.3 kW Res, 35 kW Com ETO 2012‐2014

Life 25 Years NREL

Program Admin Cost ?

S t I t ti $1 07/MWh BPA T iff

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System Integration $1.07/MWh BPA Tariff

Locations Seattle, Portland, Boise

Production & CF & Shape PV Watts

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Proposed Cost DeclinesBased on Utility Scale Cost Curve

~ 33% by Reduction 2025

8000

Utility Scale Solar PV Capital Cost Estimate ‐ $/kWac

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

$/kW ac ‐$2012

7th plan proposed

Collected Analyst Projection Range ‐grey area

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0 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Seventh Plan Ref. Plant SEPA >10 MW Projection E3 <20 MW Tracker EIA 20 MW Tracker

LBNL Utility Sc 2013 Avalon Solar Project Bevins Point Solar Old Mill Solar

Palo Alto Est Sun Shot Goal Sun Shot Evol. Projection Adelanto

Foothills I Five Points Solar Station Pine Tree Picture Rocks 

Example Cost of Rooftop PV EnergyLevelized Cost $/MWh (2012$)

Cost in 2014 Cost in 2025 Cost in 2035

B i (R id ti l) $200 $140 $130

Levelized Cost per MWh(2012$)

No Regional Act Credit

N F d l T C dit

Boise (Residential) $200 $140 $130

Boise (Commercial) $160 $110 $100

Portland (Residential) $260 $180 $170

Portland (Commercial) $210 $140 $130

(2012$)

25‐Year Life

4% Discount Rate

5.3 kW System

No Federal Tax Credit

O&M Cost & Inverter Replacement & Integration

No Program Admin Costs

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Total Potential AvailableSector High (aMW) Low (aMW)

Residential 2500 1500

Commercial 2000 1000

Total 4500 2500

Two Methods Used Roof Area * Suitable Roof * kW/SF collector

B ildi * S i bili * T i l kW /B ildi

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Buildings * Suitability * Typical kW /Building Sources: CBSA, RBSA, Solar Studies Council forecast of residential & commercial stock

NREL Solar Calculator Used to Shape Energy & Peak Impacts

1000

Boise Energy & Peak Contribution 

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Monthly Energy (kWh)

Watts at System Peak (6PM) by M th

0

100

200Month

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Forecast Long-Term Adoption (Business as Usual Case)

Council’s long-term load forecast model estimates i d d icontinued consumer PV adoption rates

Estimated for all sectors Historical PV adoption trends (1985-2012) Forecast retail power rates Solar PV costs & performance Both energy and peak impactsBoth energy and peak impacts

Forecast load reduced by forecast adoption of PV Initial estimates: Consumer side-PV generation

supplies 0.5-2.0% of regional electric load by 2035

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2000

2500

Preliminary Projection Consumer Uptake Rooftop Solar PV Energy (GWh)

0

500

1000

1500

1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

• Average Annual Growth Rate 2015‐2035  ~ 5%• Generation : ~ 230 aMW by 2035• Roughly  ~ 1.2% of total load• Roughly 5% ‐ 10% of potential

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Preliminary Projection Consumer Uptake Rooftop Solar PV Peak

600

MW of July Peak Reduction

100

200

300

400

500

01986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034

Residential Commercial Industrial

Solar PV Not Adopted in Forecast Model Remains As

Resource OptionIn Service 2014

In Service2024

In Service2034

Sixth Plan

Total Energy Available aMW

2500 – 4500 minus ~ 200

250

Cost per MWh $160 ‐ $260 $110 ‐ $180 $100 ‐ $170 > $200

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Program Ramp Rate

? ? ?

Estimated Production 2012  < 10 aMW

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What Max Pace of Development?

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Summary:Approach for Seventh Plan

1) Estimate Roof top Solar PV System Cost Use recent cost data from Energy Trust of Oregon

l id i l & i l li i By solar zone, residential & commercial applications2) Forecast Changes in Cost & Performance

Use same cost curve decline as utility scale Apply to rooftop prices

3) Estimate Total Resource Potential Number of homes & businesses & roof area Fraction applicable (adjust for orientation & shading)

4) Subtract market adoption4) Subtract market adoption Long-term forecast model based on historical adoption

5) Apply maximum annual availability Propose retrofit in 20 years

6) Add remaining potential as Distributed Generation option

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Summarize CRAC Perspective

Is the approach appropriate?

F t t d li Forecast cost decline

Total potential available: Max number installs

Baseline adoption rate into load forecast

Is three geographic areas sufficient?

Ramp Rate: How fast could it be installed?p

How to estimate net back to grid

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End

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Extra Slides

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Background Solar PV

It’s a global market

Modest consumer uptake in PNW

Recent uptick in PNW adoption

Solar PV costs falling

Other trends: Ownership & financing

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Typical Installed Cost Residential: $20,000 - $25,000 (4-5 kW)

Commercial: $50 000-$200 000 (10-40 kW)Commercial: $50,000 $200,000 (10 40 kW)

Largest: $22 million (5.7 MW)

• Incentives typically cut consumer costs in half

• Third‐Party leased projects at no initial customer cost

• Provide 40‐50% of residential electric needs

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What’s Happening in Programs?Energy Trust of Oregon Program 2012-2014

ETO Incentives for Residential PGE: $0.95/Watt, up to $9500

PacifiCorp: $0.70/Watt, up to $7000

Cash or Loan, or

Third-Party Leasing, fixed-term lease payment

Plus State Tax Credit Up to $6000 per residence

Plus Federal Tax Credit 30% of cost through 2016

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Energy Trust Oregon 2012-2014Total Installed Capacity 30 MW

Residential: About 4 MW per year Commercial: About 1-2 MW per year Utility Scale: Occasional large projects Utility Scale: Occasional large projects Over 6000 systems installed since 2003, total 58 MW 20MW Residential, 22MW Commercial, 16 MW Utility Scale

8,000 

12,000 

16,000 

nstalled

Commercial kW Installed

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‐

4,000 

,

2012 2013 2014

kW In

Residential kW Installed

50

60

70

Top 5 states represent over 75% of generation

Solar Growth Not Uniform Across States2012 Roof-top Solar Power Production (Trillion Btu)

0

10

20

30

40

50

A T VCalifo

rnia

Florid

a

New

 Jersey

Arizo

na

Haw

aii

New

 York

Pennsylvan

ia

Massach

usetts

Colorad

o

Nevad

a

Orego

n

Illinois

Connecticu

t

Texas

Marylan

d

North

 Caro

lina

Ohio

Mich

igan

New

 Mexico

Virgin

ia

Wash

ingto

n

Idaho

Montan

a

28Source: EIA SEDS 2012 – includes solar thermal

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A World Market

ChinaChina

AmericasAmericas

Asia PacificAsia Pacific

EuropeEurope

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Source:  European Photovoltaic Industry Association, Global Market Outlook 2014‐2018

3713

PNW Regional Energy Production by Rooftop  Solar  (Trillion Btu) 

Source EIA : State Energy Data System 

690 730 767 806 858 909 966 989 1001 1018 971 979 963 952 937 9901166

1419

1729

2015

2541

3213Average Annual Growth Rate

1989-2005 3%

2005-2012 21%

647 690 730 767

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

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Third-Party Leasing Overtakes Customer-Owned Residential Solar

%

120%s

National Data, Source GTM Research  2014

42%60% 67%

58%40% 33%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

ercent of Installs

42%

0%

20%

2011 2012 2013

Pe

Third Party Owned Customer Owned

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Emerging Ownership & Financing Options

Consumer interest in solar PV has generated new approaches financing & ownership arrangementsapproaches, financing & ownership arrangements Community Solar

Special Purpose Entities

Solar-Specific Banks

Lease Options

Utility-Sponsored ModelsUtility Sponsored Models

Bulk Purchasing

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Location Matters: More Sun Means More Energy Produced

9 000

Annual kWh Generated for a 5.3 kW Residential System

3,000 

4,000 

5,000 

6,000 

7,000 

8,000 

9,000 

nual kWh Generated

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‐

1,000 

2,000 

Seattle Portland Missoula Pasco Boise

Ann

Estimating Potential Applications

Most homes have some have some solar access

Panels do not have to be on buildings

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