covid-19 dashboard of economic indicators · 12/22/2020 · evolutie van het aantal opnames in het...
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COVID-19 Dashboardof Economic Indicators
22 December 2020
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2
COVID-19 in België
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Evolutie van het aantal opnames in het ziekenhuis
629
879
140
266
5759
7487
2610
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
90015
/03/
2020
22/0
3/20
2029
/03/
2020
05/0
4/20
2012
/04/
2020
19/0
4/20
2026
/04/
2020
03/0
5/20
2010
/05/
2020
17/0
5/20
2024
/05/
2020
31/0
5/20
2007
/06/
2020
14/0
6/20
2021
/06/
2020
28/0
6/20
2005
/07/
2020
12/0
7/20
2019
/07/
2020
26/0
7/20
2002
/08/
2020
09/0
8/20
2016
/08/
2020
23/0
8/20
2030
/08/
2020
06/0
9/20
2013
/09/
2020
20/0
9/20
2027
/09/
2020
04/1
0/20
2011
/10/
2020
18/1
0/20
2025
/10/
2020
01/1
1/20
2008
/11/
2020
15/1
1/20
2022
/11/
2020
29/1
1/20
2006
/12/
2020
13/1
2/20
2020
/12/
2020
Aantal nieuwe opnames (linkeras) Totaal aantal patiënten in het ziekenhuis (rechteras)
3Bron: Sciensano, Belgisch Instituut voor de Volksgezondheid: 22 december 2020.https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Documents/Covid19/Meest%20recente%20update.pdf
1. COVID-19 in België: aantal gehospitaliseerde patiënten daalttraag en bevindt zich nog op een veel te hoog niveau
https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Documents/Covid19/Meest%20recente%20update.pdf
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4
GDP and confidence indicatorsfor Belgium
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70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
December 2020 projections p.m. June 2020 projections p.m. Scenario without COVID-19
5
The Belgian economy is expected to return to its pre-crisis level at theend of 2022, but it will remain below the scenario without COVID-19
Real GDP in Belgium(quarterly data, index 2019Q4=100, annual growth rates in the top boxes)
1,7 % -6,7 % 3,5 % 3,1 % 2,3 %
P R O J E C T I O N S
Sources: National Accounts Institute (NAI), National Bank of Belgium (NBB).
-
6
Het ondernemersvertrouwen veert op in december na deverzwakking in november
-32
-11 (maart)
-36 (april)-34 (mei)
-12 (nov)-8 (dec)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Brutoreeks Langetermijngemiddelde sinds 1985 Afgevlakte reeks
Algemene synthetische curve
Bron: Nationale Bank van België (NBB), laatst beschikbare gegevens: december 2020, perscommuniqué maandelijkse conjunctuurenquête bij de bedrijven.
https://www.nbb.be/doc/dq/n/dq3/histo/pnc2012.pdf
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-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Baromètre de conjoncture – Belgique : Branches d’activité – décembre 2020
Embellie dans toutes les branches d’activité, sauf dans la construction
7
Industrie manufacturière
CommerceConstruction
Services aux entreprises
-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-70-60-50-40-30-20-10
01020
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Moyenne de long terme (depuis 1980)Série dessaisonalisée et lissée Série dessaisonalisée
Source: Banque nationale de Belgique (BNB), dernières données disponibles: décembre 2020.
-
-9 (mrt)
-26
-8 (dec)
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ConsumentenvertrouwenLangetermijngemiddelde sinds 1985Historisch minimum
8
Het consumentenvertrouwen neemt opnieuw toe in december
De vertrouwensindicator benadert, door zijntoekomstgerichte karakter, opnieuw zijnniveau van voor de crisis.
Bron: NBB, laatst beschikbare gegevens: december 2020, perscommuniqué maandelijkse consumentenenquête.
https://www.nbb.be/doc/dq/n/dq3/histo/pne2012.pdf
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9Source: NBB, replies to December 2020 consumer survey (additional COVID-19 questions).1 Households with losses >10% (17 %) and less than three months savings (40 %) = 7 % of the total of households.2 22 % of total respondents.
How long can you cover your expensesthrough a savings buffer?(in % of the 1 850 respondents, unless otherwise stated)
Is your household sufferinga loss of income?(in % of 1 850 respondents)
Around 17 % of households suffer an income loss of more than 10 %and 40 % of them have a savings buffer of less than 3 months1
Yes:More than >10 %:
17 %
70 71 72 71 74
9 9 8 8 913 12 12 13 105 4 5 5 43 4
2 4 3
0
20
40
60
80
100
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
No losses < 10% 10-30%
30-50% >50%
12 14 13 9 11 1720 17 13 15
17 16 15 15 1623 24 21
21 25
20 17 17 18 15
30 20 22 25 21
51 52 55 59 59
30 36 39 41 39
0
20
40
60
80
100
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Households with losses > 10%²Less than 1 month 1 - 3 months4 - 6 months More than 6 months
No losses: 74 %A large majority ofBelgian householdshas been unaffected
(so far)
-
0
20
40
60
80
100Se
pt Oct
Nov De
c
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Belgium (1850respondents)
Flanders (750respondents)
Wallonia (750respondents)
Brussels (350respondents)
No losses < 10% 10 - 30 % 30 - 50% > 50%
10Source: NBB, replies to December 2020 consumer survey (additional COVID-19 questions).
Savings buffer decreases sharply in Brusselsin December(in % of respondents with loss of income)
e)
In December, the proportion of householdssuffering no loss of income increases in all regions(in % of respondents)
Flemish households still hold a more favourable position (especiallyregarding savings buffer)
26272426
19 16 12 13 17 9 9 1221 19 15 11
20 2611 17
2321
19 2318
20 1519
2824
21 2422 16
22
29
1921
24 19 1915 16
16
19 2628
2221 28
28
21
39 42 45 45 4756 59 54
31 31 3543 37
3139 33
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Sept Oct
Nov De
c
Belgium Flanders Wallonie Brussels
Less than 1 month 1 - 3 months4 - 6 months More than 6 months
-
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
11Source: Algaba, A., Borms, S., Boudt, K. & Van Pelt, J. (2020). The Economic Policy Uncertainty index for Flanders, Wallonia and Belgium. Research note. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3580000.The index reflects normalized frequency counts of news articles related to economic policy uncertainty, latest available data: November 2020.
Economic Policy Uncertainty index for Belgium(monthly indicator)
Economic policy uncertainty has increased again since October andit remains very elevated (at the level of the global financial crisis)
Belgian governmentformation
April 2020: COVID-19
Belgian government fallsover UN Migration Pact
European debt crisis
Global financial crisis
-
12
Labour market
-
13Source: Institut des Comptes Nationaux (ICN), dernières données disponibles: troisième trimestre 2020.
L’emploi salarié plus durement impacté que l’emploi indépendant(emploi en personnes - variation trimestrielle en %)
0,50,4 0,4 0,4
-0,2
-0,7
0,3
-1,0
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
2019-T1 2019-T2 2019-T3 2019-T4 2020-T1 2020-T2 2020-T3
Indépendants Salariés Emploi total
-
0,92
0,40
0,31
0,19
0,05
0,03
-0,14
-0,33
-0,33
-0,35
0,26
-1,77
0,26
-0,39
-1,73
-0,61
-0,14
0,08
-0,39
-0,44
-0,76
-2,0 -1,5 -1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5
Business services
Health and social services
Information and communication
Trade, hotels and restaurants, transport
Other services
Construction
Administration and education
Industry
Property business
Agriculture
Financial activities
Total employment
2020 Q2 2020 Q3Source: NAI, latest available data: third quarter 2020.
14
Impact on employment stronger for some branches of activity(QoQ variation in %, 2020 Q3)
pm thousandsof people
4 887
113
60
30
562
855
291
213
1 002
129
657
975
-
15Source: Federgon, dernières données disponibles: octobre 2020.
Chute brutale du travail intérimaire en avril, reprise partielle par après(données mensuelles, en milliers d’heures)
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-
16Sources: Actiris, Forem, VDAB, dernières données disponibles: novembre 2020.
VDABActiris
L’évolution des opportunités d’emplois suit les mesures de(dé)confinement(moyenne mensuelle des offres d’emplois reçues par les services publics de l’emploi régionaux via le circuit ordinaire)
Forem
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 00020
20 M
120
20 M
220
20 M
320
20 M
420
20 M
520
20 M
620
20 M
720
20 M
820
20 M
920
20 M
1020
20 M
11
2019
11M
2020
11M
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2020
M1
2020
M2
2020
M3
2020
M4
2020
M5
2020
M6
2020
M7
2020
M8
2020
M9
2020
M10
2020
M11
2019
11M
2020
11M
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
2020
M1
2020
M2
2020
M3
2020
M4
2020
M5
2020
M6
2020
M7
2020
M8
2020
M9
2020
M10
2020
M11
2019
11M
2020
11M
-
17Source: Federgon, dernières données disponibles (séries dessaisonalisées): novembre 2020.
Les prévisions d’emplois issues des enquêtes de conjonctureégalement(données désaisonnalisées et lissées)
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
IndustrieConstruction (gros œuvre de bâtiments)CommerceServices aux entreprises
Série dessaisonalisée et lissée Série dessaisonalisée
-
Mass redundancy procedures: above 2019 average
◆ Since lockdown (April 2020)
◇ 97 procedures
◇ 8 394 workers concerned
◆ pm January 2019 – December 2019
◇ 81 procedures
◇ 5 087 workers concerned
18Source: Federal Public Service Employment, Labour and Social Dialogue (FPS ELSD), latest data available: 17 December 2020.
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
Janu
ary
Febr
uary
Mar
ch
April
May
June July
Augu
st
Sept
embe
r
Oct
ober
Nov
embe
r
Dece
mbe
r
Workers (LHS) pm Average 2019 (LHS)
Cases (RHS) pm Average 2019 (RHS)
-
19Source: NEO, latest available data: November 2020.
Annual variation(monthly data, thousands of people)
Limited rise in unemployment for the time being …
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flanders Wallonia Brussels Belgium
◆ Peak observed in May: +38 000, situation in November: +22 000
-
20Source: NEO, latest available data: November 2020.
… concentrated on men and medium and highly-educated peopleAnnual variation(monthly data)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Men
Wom
en
Less
than
6 m
onth
s
6-12
mon
ths
1 yea
r and
mor
e
Youn
ger t
han
20
20-3
0 ye
ars
30-5
0 ye
ars
50 a
nd o
lder
Low-
educ
ated
Med
ium
-edu
cate
d
High
ly-ed
ucat
ed
In thousands of people In %
-
21Source: NEO, latest available data: November 2020.
Temporary unemployment: following lockdown measures
93030%
1 14636%
91729%
56118%
34011%
30810%
2337%
2658%
1 033
1 233
986
615
410331 281
423509
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
March April May June July August September October November
Payments pm Employer's request (DRS) pm highest level recorded during the financial crisis
Average number of days per worker
March April May June July August September October8.9 15.5 11.1 9.8 8.6 8.7 9.2 9.5
Monthly effective use and access demands(payments linked to COVID-19, thousands of people and % of private salaried employment, p.m. DRS linked to COVID-19, thousands of people,monthly data)
-
22Source: Federal Public Service Social Security, confidential data, latest available data: November 2020.1 Data related to payments.
Bridging right, provisional data1(thousands of people and % of self-employed in principal activity)
Self-employed: unprecedent use of financial support
396(53 %)
414(55 %) 379
(51 %)
144(19 %) 115
(15 %)113
(15 %) 79(11 %)
93(12 %)
122(16 %)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
March April May June July August September October November
Before the crisis, about 90 self-employed benefited of the bridging right.At the peak of the crisis, in April, they were 414 000.
-
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
7220
16T1
2016
T220
16T3
2016
T420
17T1
2017
T220
17T3
2017
T420
18T1
2018
T220
18T3
2018
T420
19T1
2019
T220
19T3
2019
T420
20T1
2020
T220
20T3
2020
M10
e
Trimestriel Mensuel
23Source: Statbel, dernières données disponibles: en trimestriel: 3ème trimestre – en mensuel: octobre 2020.1 Les indicateurs mensuels sont sujets à de plus fortes fluctuations aléatoires que les résultats trimestriels et annuels car ils reposent sur un douzième de l’échantillon annuel. Les variations d’une
période à l’autre doivent être interprétés avec prudence..
Taux de chômage(15-64)
Taux d’emploi(20-64)
La crise sanitaire a interrompu une dynamique positive(taux harmonisés issus des enquêtes force de travail1)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2016
T120
16T2
2016
T320
16T4
2017
T120
17T2
2017
T320
17T4
2018
T120
18T2
2018
T320
18T4
2019
T120
19T2
2019
T320
19T4
2020
T120
20T2
2020
T3
2020
M10
e
-
24
ERMG survey
-
The ERMG survey allows to monitor the COVID-19 impact oncompanies and self-employed in real time¹◆ Surveys conducted by (selection of) the following federations:
25
Round Period Federations Replies Comment1 23-24 March BECI, UWE, VOKA 1 700 Results not published2 30-31 March BECI, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 4 725 First press release3 6-7 April BECI, BOERENBOND, NSZ, UNISOC, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 6 900 UNISOC was analysed separately4 14-15 April BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 5 5005 20-21 April BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 3 5286 27-28 April BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 4 2087 5-6 May BECI, BOERENBOND, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 6758 12-13 May BECI, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 1859 25-27 May BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 99310 8-10 June BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 36511 22-24 June BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 3 13612 17-19 August BECI, NSZ, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 4 43013 21-23 September BECI, NSZ, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 2 86814 19-21 October BECI, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 5 13115 9-10 November BECI, NSZ, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 5 63116 7-9 December BECI, UCM, UNIZO, UWE, VOKA 3 798
Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ Note that changes over time should be interpreted with care as the companies participating to the survey and the composition of the sample can differ from one week to another.
-
Recovery
-33 -33-36
-33 -34 -32-29 -31
-26-23
-17
-13 -14 -14-17
-14
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
23 M
arch
30 M
arch
6 Ap
ril
13 A
pril
20 A
pril
27 A
pril
5 M
ay
12 M
ay
26 M
ay
9 Ju
ne
23 Ju
ne
18 A
ugus
t
22 S
epte
mbe
r
20 O
ctob
er
10 N
ovem
ber
8 De
cem
ber
26Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ This approach excludes the human health industry, the public sector and firms that were identified as belonging to a miscellaneous ‘other’ industry.² 2022 revenue expectations were not asked in the surveys before December.
Expected impact on next years’ turnover(in %, weighted average based on revenues and industry value added¹)
COVID-19 impact on weekly turnover(in %, weighted average based on revenues and industry value added¹)
-10 -10 -11 -12-9
-6
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2021 2022Expectation of Survey 18 AugustExpectation of Survey 22 SeptemberExpectation of Survey 20 OctoberExpectation of Survey 10 NovemberExpectation of Survey 8 December
While the current revenue loss and the 2021 outlook have improved,the recovery is still expected to remain slow and only partial
Lockdown I StabilisationLockdown
II Recovery
NA²
NA²
NA²
NA²
-
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Accommodationand foodservices
Transportationand logistics¹
Retail sales(non-food)
Wholesale Real estateactivities
Support services Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Information andcommunication
Financial andinsuranceactivities
Retail sales(food)
March-April (Lockdown I)(Rounds 2-6)
May-June(Rounds 7-11)
August-October(Rounds 12-14)
November (Lockdown II)(Round 15)
December(Round 16)
27
Revenues have improved in most industries (especially in non-foodretail and real estate activities), but not in the worst-hit industries
Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ The changes of the revenue loss in the transport and logistics sector over time should be interpreted with caution because the hard-hit passenger aviation companies seem to have been
underrepresented in the survey rounds between August and November.
COVID-19 impact on weekly turnover(in %, weighted average based on revenues)
-
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Accommodationand foodservices
Transportationand logistics
Retail sales(non-food)
Wholesale Real estateactivities
Support services Agriculture¹ Manufacturing Construction Information andcommunication
Financial andinsuranceactivities
Retail sales(food)
Week of December 8 2021 Q1 2021 2022
28
Most industries do not expect a full recovery even by 2022
Source: Round 16 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020¹ The expectations in agriculture should be interpreted with care, as it is largely driven by one very large agriculture firm with a pessimistic outlook.
Expected COVID-19 impact on current and next years’ turnover (Survey 8 December)(in %, weighted average based on revenues)
-
29Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ Weighted average based on the industry value added.² The results for this sector are based on only a few respondents and should therefore be interpreted with caution. In addition, the changes of the aviation revenue loss over time should be interpreted
with caution because the hard-hit passenger aviation companies seem to have been underrepresented in many survey rounds before December.
Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on company turnover by industry(in %, weighted average based on revenues)
Survey30 March
Survey6 April
Survey13 April
Survey20 April
Survey27 April
Survey5 May
Survey12 May
Survey26 May
Survey9 June
Survey23 June
Survey18 Aug
Survey22 Sept
Survey20 Oct
Survey10 Nov
Survey8 Dec
Aviation² -20 -40 -77 -63 -53 -61 -87 -88 -57 -6 -34 -32 -13 -15 -85Events and recreation -74 -92 -84 -88 -88 -84 -89 -92 -63 -86 -81 -81 -74 -77 -79Accommodation and food service activities -93 -83 -88 -95 -84 -87 -93 -85 -75 -50 -42 -39 -65 -66 -78Retail sales (non-food) -86 -85 -78 -70 -82 -70 -25 -29 -12 -6 -9 -16 -19 -51 -24Road transport (persons) -28 -45 -71 -67 -67 -84 -69 -34 -61 -35 -11 -11 -24 -13 -23Human Resources -40 -46 -20 -36 -33 -37 -36 -35 -33 -12 -14 -13 -12 -11 -19Engineering services -34 -62 -13 -30 -27 -20 -16 -14 -10 -17 -10 -25 -21 -12 -16Wholesale -50 -48 -59 -47 -44 -34 -43 -17 -36 -24 -6 -8 -15 -19 -15Liberal professions -25 -21 -15 -28 -27 -22 -27 -12 -11 -15 -14 -8 -10 -12 -13Real estate activities -36 -44 -43 -31 -28 -60 -38 0 -9 -21 -10 -24 -12 -37 -13Manufacture of transport equipment² -32 -63 -74 -29 -75 -59 -47 -36 -16 -23 -4 -16 -15 -21 -12Manufacture of machinery and electrical equipment -25 -29 -29 -30 -32 -30 -24 -35 -20 -10 -19 -9 -14 -10 -11Agriculture and fishing -34 -23 -11 1 -3 -33 0 -17 -4 -19 -2 -10 -5 -12 -10Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel and shoes -48 -57 -70 -70 -57 -62 -50 -50 -29 -23 -9 -4 -7 -19 -10Manufacture of wood and paper products, and printing -52 -20 -26 -49 -32 -26 -23 -30 -30 -28 -11 -6 -15 -14 -10Manufacture of pharmaceutical and chemical products -14 -20 -24 -11 -11 -23 -18 -21 -19 -21 -12 -10 -11 -8 -10Manufacture of food products -14 -17 -24 -20 -15 -21 -17 -22 -21 -12 -8 -9 -11 -12 -9Consultancy -8 -16 -15 -28 -20 -23 -25 -20 -12 -19 -12 -10 -10 -14 -9Logistics -29 -26 -23 -15 -16 -24 -10 -39 -25 -34 -7 -17 -10 -11 -8Manufacture of plastic and non-metallic products -24 -14 -20 -15 -23 -21 -17 -22 -22 -11 -14 -12 -11 -10 -8Construction -47 -46 -43 -46 -44 -29 -34 -14 -20 -5 -11 -9 -9 -9 -7Metallurgy -21 -12 -34 -18 -33 -31 -25 -36 -27 -31 -25 -24 -18 -10 -6Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products -43 -9 -17 -37 -34 -14 -27 -27 -9 -21 -43 -21 -10 -11 -5Information and communication -15 -21 -18 -23 -21 -29 -43 -27 -30 -17 -9 -21 -8 -13 -4Manufacture of furniture -61 -63 -80 -58 -67 -36 -60 -30 -21 -6 -19 -19 -1 -7 -3Financial and insurance activities -20 -9 -8 -17 -10 -10 -17 -11 -10 -10 -9 -7 -9 -10 -1Retail sales (food) -3 -4 -8 0 -5 -8 -16 1 -9 -6 1 -11 -1 -9 1
< -50 %
0 to -10 %
-10 to -20 %
-20 to -50 %
> 0 %
-
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Self-employed 1 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 50 50 - 250 250 - 1000 > 1000
March- April (Lockdown I)(Rounds 2-6)
May-June(Rounds 7-11)
August-October(Rounds 12-14)
November (Lockdown II)(Round 15)
December(Round 16)
30Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ Results are not stratified by industry.
Reported impact on weekly turnover, by number of employees(in %, unweighted average¹)
Revenues recover somewhat for the smaller firms/self-employed,but they remain the hardest hit by far …
-
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Self-employed 1 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 50 50 - 250 250 - 1000 > 1000
Flemish Region Walloon Region Brussels-Capital Region
31Source: Round 16 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ Results are not stratified by industry.
Reported impact on weekly turnover by number of employees (Survey 8 December)(in %, unweighted average¹)
… and small Brussels firms suffer more, which could be explained bythe drop in commuters (due to telework) and (tourism/business) travel
-
32Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ Weighted average based on industry value added. Please note that there are no results for the surveys in May and June.² Liquidity problems was not included in the surveys of March and April.
Reasons for the current revenue loss(in % of responding firms¹, multiple reasons are possible)
Lack of demand remains the key issue of the revenue loss, while theforced closure of the activities is cited less but remains important …
0
20
40
60
Lack of demand Forced closure Social Distancing Supply chain problems Staff shortage Liquidity problems Other Not applicable:no revenue loss
March-April (Lockdown I)(Rounds 2-6)
August-October(Rounds 10-14)
November (Lockdown II)(Round 15)
December(Round 16)
NA²
-
33Source: ERMG survey of 8 December.
… and less staff is absent in December due to illness
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,013
Apr
il
20 A
pril
27 A
pril
5 M
ay
12 M
ay
26 M
ay
9 Ju
ne
23 Ju
ne
18 A
ugus
t
22 S
epte
mbe
r
20 O
ctob
er
10 N
ovem
ber
8 De
cem
ber
Sick leave(in % of the total number of employees of the companies in the survey (excluding self-employed))
Higher sick leave in Walloniaand in industries wheretelework is less feasible
-
34Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.1 Weighted average based on the industry value added.
The concern indicator has decreased in December
Concern about the impact of the current situation on the commercial activities(Indicator¹ between 1 (low concern) and 10 (strong concern))
7,1 7,27,2
7,0 7,1 6,96,7
6,6
6,3
5,9
6,7
6,3
7,0 6,9
6,5
5
6
7
830
Mar
ch
6 Ap
ril
13 A
pril
20 A
pril
27 A
pril
5 M
ay
12 M
ay
26 M
ay
9 Ju
ne
23 Ju
ne
18 A
ugus
t
22 S
epte
mbe
r
20 O
ctob
er
10 N
ovem
ber
8 De
cem
ber
34
-
35
The investment outlook has become a little less gloomy: the averagefirm expects its investment to be about 20 % below normal in 2021
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Accommodationand foodservices
Agriculture Wholesale andretail trade
Transportationand logistics
Real estateactivities
Information andcommunication
Supportservices
Manufacturing Construction Financial andinsuranceactivities
2020 Investment 2021 Investment Belgium¹ 2020 Belgium¹ 2021
COVID-19 impact on expected investment in 2020 and 2021 (Survey 8 December)(in %, unweighted average)
35Source: Round 16 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.1 Weighted average based on the industry value added.
-
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
None Yes, due to revenue loss Yes, due to late payments Yes, due to insufficient credit lines Yes, due to delayed governmentpayments
March-April (Lockdown I)(Rounds 2-6)
May-June(Rounds 7-11)
August-October(Rounds 12-14)
November (Lockdown II)(Round 15)
December(Round 16)
36
Liquidity problems have eased somewhat in December, except forthose related to credit access and delayed government payments …
Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ Weighted average based on the industry value added.
Do you have liquidity problems?(in % of responding firms¹, multiple answers are possible)
-
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Belgium¹ Accommodationand foodservices
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Retail sales (non-food)
Real estateactivities
Information andcommunication
Agriculture Construction Support services Retail sales(food)
Wholesale Manufacturing Transportationand logistics
Financial andinsuranceactivities
< 1 month 1 - 3 months 3 - 6 months 6 - 12 months >12 months
37
… and almost 60 % of firms need additional financing within one year
Source: Round 16 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ Weighted average based on the industry value added.
How long can you still meet your current financial obligations without having to rely on additionalcapital injections or additional loans?(in % of responding firms)
-
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Belgium¹ Accommodationand food services
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Transportationand logistics
Real estateactivities
Retail sales (non-food)
Retail sales (food) Construction Information andcommunication
Financial andinsuranceactivities
Support services Agriculture Wholesale Manufacturing
Week of August 18(Round 12)
Week of October 20(Round 14)
Week of November 10(Round 15)
Week of December 8(Round 16)
38
Bankruptcy risk has decreased again in December but remainselevated …
Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ The results of the September survey were left out as the sample was not representative (small firms based in Wallonia and Brussels, which regard the risk of bankruptcy as higher, were much less
represented in that survey).² Weighted average based on the industry value added.
Firms that consider bankruptcy to be likely or highly likely¹(in % of responding firms)
-
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Belgium¹ Accommodationand food services
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Transportationand logistics
Real estateactivities
Retail sales (non-food)
Retail sales (food) Construction Information andcommunication
Financial andinsuranceactivities
Support services Agriculture Wholesale Manufacturing
Survey 18 August Survey 22 September Survey 20 October Survey 10 November Survey 8 December
39
… and firms estimate that many companies in their industry arecurrently in a bankruptcy process or already went bankrupt
Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ Weighted average based on the industry value added.
Estimate of respondents on the proportion of companies in their sector that already are currentlyin a bankruptcy process or that already went bankrupt(in %, unweighted average)
-
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Belgium¹ Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Accommodationand foodservices
Wholesale Retail sales(non-food)
Transportationand logistics
Support services Manufacturing Financial andinsuranceactivities
Retail sales(food)
Agriculture Construction Real estateactivities
Information andcommunication
2020 2021
40Source: Round 16 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.1 Average, weighted by the number of private sector employees in the industries.
Expected change in staff size in 2020 and 2021 (Survey 8 December)(in % of total staff size of the firms in the survey, excluding self-employed)
The number of employees in the private sector is expected to declineby almost 5 % by the end of 2021 …
-
41Source: Round 16 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.1 Average, weighted by the number of private sector employees in the industries.
Expected change of staff size in 2020 and 2021 (Survey 8 December)(in number of employees, excluding self-employed)
… corresponding to an expected decline by about 110 000 employeesin the private sector
-120 000
-100 000
-80 000
-60 000
-40 000
-20 000
0
Belgium¹-35 000
-30 000
-25 000
-20 000
-15 000
-10 000
-5 000
0
5 000
Accommodationand foodservices
Wholesale andretail trade
Support services Manufacturing Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Transportationand logistics
Financial andinsuranceactivities
Agriculture Real estateactivities
Construction Information andcommunication
2020 2021
-
42Source: ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ Average, weighted by the number of the private sector employees of the industries in the Belgian economy.
Workforce organisation over time, Belgium¹(in % of total staff size of the firms in the survey, excl. self-employed)
The number of employees in full- and part-time telework has furtherincreased, while the number of temporary unemployed has declined
0
20
40
60
80
10020
Apr
il
27 A
pril
5 M
ay
12 M
ay
26 M
ay
9 Ju
ne
23 Ju
ne
18 A
ugus
t
22 S
epte
mbe
r
20 O
ctob
er
10 N
ovem
ber
8 De
cem
ber
temporarily unemployed telework mix telework/workplace at workplace sick leave on leave
0
20
40
60
80
100
Arts,
ent
erta
inm
ent a
ndre
crea
tion
Acco
mm
odat
ion
and
food
serv
ices
Reta
il sale
s (no
n-fo
od)
Tran
spor
tatio
n an
d lo
gisti
cs
Who
lesa
le
Finan
cial a
nd in
sura
nce
activ
ities
Real
esta
te a
ctivi
ties
Reta
il sale
s (fo
od)
Man
ufac
turin
g
Supp
ort s
ervic
es
Cons
truct
ion
Info
rmat
ion
and
com
mun
icatio
n
Agric
ultu
re
Workforce organisation by industry (8 December)(in % of total staff size of the firms in the survey, excl. self-employed)
-
43
The current use of telework decreases productivity in about half ofthe firms
Source: Round 16 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 8 December 2020.¹ Average, weighted by the estimated number of private sector employees of the industries in the Belgian economy
Impact of current recourse to teleworking on workers’ productivity (Survey 8 December)(in % of firms polled, at aggregate level and in the four sectors making the most use of teleworking)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Belgium¹ Financial andinsurance activities
Real estateactivities
Supportservices
Information andcommunication
Strong positive impact
Slightly positive impactNo impact
Slightly negative impact
Strong negative impact
-
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
Belgium¹ Support services Information andcommunication
Financial andinsuranceactivities
Real estateactivities
Manufacturing Transportationand logistics
Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Wholesale andretail trade
Construction Agriculture Accommodationand foodservices
Before COVID-19 Week of 20 October² After COVID-19
44Source: Round 14 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 20 October 2020.¹ Average, weighted by the number of private sector employees in the industries.² The average days of telework for the week of 20 October is computed based on the survey question on the workforce organisation. It pertains to the staff that is currently working (thus excluding
temporarily unemployed and absent staff) and it assumes that partial telework corresponds to 2 days a week.
Use of telework in October and before and after the COVID-19 crisis (Survey 20 October)(average number of days per week, weighted averages based on staff size, excluding self-employed)
The use of telework is expected to remain almost twice as large afterthe COVID-19 crisis …
-
45Source: Round 13 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 22 September 2020.
Do you expect that the way of working in your company will be permanently different fromthe situation before the crisis? (Survey 22 September)(in % of responding firms, multiple answers are possible)
… as the crisis will have a lasting impact on the way of working withincreased use of telework, more flexible working hours and less travel
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
Yes, increased use oftelework
Yes, more flexibleworking hours
Yes, less business travel Yes, reorganisation ofteams
Yes, other No
Information and communication Support services Financial and insurance activitiesTransportation and logistics Manufacturing Real estate activitiesConstruction Arts, entertainment and recreation Wholesale and retail tradeAgriculture Accommodation and food services
-
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Belgium¹ Retail sales(non-food)
Retail sales(food)
Accommodationand food services
Financial andinsuranceactivities
Support services Information andcommunication
Real estateactivities
Manufacturing Agriculture Construction Wholesale Arts,entertainmentand recreation
Transportationand logistics
Before the COVID-19 crisis Week of 10 November After the COVID-19 crisis
46Source: Round 15 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 10 November 2020.¹ Weighted average based on the industry value added
Share of companies that generate sales through distance orders or online sales (Survey 10 November)(in % of responding firms, sectors are ranked by increase from the pre-COVID-19 situation)
The COVID-19 crisis has led to a structural increase in E-sales/distanceorders, especially in retail, accommodation and financial services
-
47Source: Round 12 of ERMG survey, latest available data: 18 August 2020.
Do you expect that, as a result of the COVID-19 crisis, the production of your company that iscurrently produced outside the EU will be moved to a country within the EU? (Survey 18 August)(In % of responding firms)
Only few firms have non-EU production and the vast majority ofthese firms will not reshore this production
0
20
40
60
80
100
Yes, 100% of ournon-EU production
Yes, 20-50% of ournon-EU production
Yes, 0-50% of ournon-EU production
No, we keep ournon-EU production
Not applicable:I do not have
non-EU productionAgriculture Manufacturing Financial and insurance activitiesTransportation and logistics Information and communication Wholesale and retail tradeSupport services Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food servicesConstruction Real estate activities
-
48
Credit indicatorshouseholds
-
49Bron: NBB, laatste beschikbare gegevens: oktober 2020 (laatste bijwerking: 11 december 2020).1 Andere activa bevatten voornamelijk verzekeringsproducten en niet-genoteerde aandelen.
Minwaarden op bestaande beleggingen maar meer deposito’s enaankoop aandelen en beleggingsfondsen door gezinnen in 2020
Netto financiële investeringen(in € miljard)
Min- en meerwaarden op financiële activa vanhuishoudens(in € miljard)
◆ In 2020Q1 veroorzaakten de sterke daling in de beurskoersen waardedalingen in de financiëleactiva van de particulieren voor 63,1 miljard euro.Door het herstel van de beurzen vertoont 2020Q2 positieve herwaarderingen van 37,1 miljard.Oktober toont een beperkte daling. In november herstellen de beurskoersen echter fors.Negatieve prijseffecten waren beduidend hoger tijdens de financiële crisis van 2008.
◆ p.m. de totale financiële activa van de particulieren bedroegen 1 406 miljard eind juni 2020.
-80-60-40-20
020406080
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Okt
Financiële rekeningen Schatting
Andere activa¹ Deposito's Beleggingsfondsen Schuldbewijzen Genoteerde aandelen Totaal
-10-505
10152025
2019
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Okt
Financiële kwartaalrekeningen Schatting
◆ De transacties in financiële activa van de particulieren in het tweedekwartaal tonen forse investeringen voor totaal 19,1 miljard euro,voornamelijk door de stijging van de deposito’s, illustratief voorhet “geforceerd sparen” van de gezinnen. In het tweedekwartaal werd er voornamelijk in beleggingsfondsengeïnvesteerd. Zoals vaak in het derde kwartaal daaldende deposito’s ook in 2020Q3, maar minderuitgesproken dan in de voorgaande jaren.
-
50Bron: Schema A, laatste beschikbare gegevens: oktober 2020.
Alle deposito’s(Maandelijkse nettogroei, € miljoen)
Deposito’s Belgische huishoudens(€ miljard, sector, maandelijkse gegevens)
Deposito’s van Belgische huishoudens
150
200
250
300
350
400
450jan
-15
apr-
15ju
l-15
okt-
15jan
-16
apr-
16ju
l-16
okt-
16jan
-17
apr-
17ju
l-17
okt-
17jan
-18
apr-
18ju
l-18
okt-
18jan
-19
apr-
19ju
l-19
okt-
19jan
-20
apr-
20ju
l-20
okt-
20
Alle deposito's Spaarboekje
-2 000
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
jan-1
9fe
b-19
mrt-
19ap
r-19
mei
-19
jun-
19ju
l-19
aug-
19se
p-19
okt-
19no
v-19
dec-
19jan
-20
feb-
20m
rt-20
apr-
20m
ei-2
0ju
n-20
jul-2
0au
g-20
sep-
20ok
t-20
-
Negatieve saldi op rekeningen / kredietkaarten
51
Negatieve saldi op rekeningen(stock, in € miljoen, maandelijkse gegevens)
Bron: Ad hoc rapportering, Febelfin, op basis van 7 banken, laatst beschikbaregegevens: 30 november 2020.Bron: Schema A, voorschotten rekening courant, laatste beschikbare gegevens: oktober 2020.
Aantal rekeningen “teveel in het rood”(aantal, in duizend, wekelijkse gegevens)
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 50012
/201
4
05/2
015
10/2
015
03/2
016
08/2
016
01/2
017
06/2
017
11/2
017
04/2
018
09/2
018
02/2
019
07/2
019
12/2
019
05/2
020
10/2
020
0
50
100
150
200
250
W 13
/4W
20/
4W
27/
4W
4/5
W 11
/5W
18/5
W 2
5/5
W 1/
6W
8/6
W 15
/6W
22/
6W
29/
6W
6/7
W 13
/7W
20/
7W
27/
7W
3/8
W 10
/8W
17/8
W 2
4/8
W 3
1/8
W 7
/9W
14/9
W 2
1/9
W 5
/10
W 19
/10
W 2
/11
W 16
/11
W 3
0/11
-
Bankkredieten van Belgische huishoudens
52Bron: Schema A, laatste beschikbare gegevens: oktober 2020.
Hypothecaire leningen(maandelijkse nettogroei , € miljoen)
Stock(€ miljard)
Consumentenleningen(maandelijkse nettogroei , € miljoen)
Groeivoet(op jaarbasis, %)
150170190210230250270
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-4 000-2 000
02 0004 0006 0008 000
jan-1
9fe
b-19
mrt-
19ap
r-19
mei
-19
jun-
19ju
l-19
aug-
19se
p-19
okt-
19no
v-19
dec-
19jan
-20
feb-
20m
rt-20
apr-
20m
ei-2
0ju
n-20
jul-2
0au
g-20
sep-
20ok
t-20
- 200- 150- 100- 50
0 50
100 150
jan-1
9fe
b-19
mrt-
19ap
r-19
mei
-19
jun-
19ju
l-19
aug-
19se
p-19
okt-
19no
v-19
dec-
19jan
-20
feb-
20m
rt-20
apr-
20m
ei-2
0ju
n-20
jul-2
0au
g-20
sep-
20ok
t-20
-5
0
5
10
15
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Belgium Euro area
-
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
35020
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
20
53Bron: Centrale voor Kredieten aan Particulieren (CKP), laatste beschikbare gegevens: 15 december 2020
Wanbetalingsgraad(Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten, % van alle uitstaandecontracten in CKP/ENR)
Nieuwe leningen(geregistreerd bedrag per werkdag in CKP, in € miljoenen)
Hypotheekleningen: nieuwe leningen en wanbetalingsgraad
Gemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste 12 maandenGemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste maandGemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste 5 werkdagen
07/0
304
/04
02/0
530
/05
27/0
625
/07
22/0
819
/09
17/1
014
/11
12/1
2
0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
1,2%
1,4%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
05101520253035404550
24/0
322
/04
21/0
519
/06
18/0
716
/08
14/0
913
/10
11/1
110
/12
Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten(dagelijkse gegevens, rechterschaal in duizenden)
Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten(maandelijkse gegevens, rechterschaal in duizenden)
Wanbetalingsgraad(dagelijkse gegevens, linkerschaal in %)
Wanbetalingsgraad(maandelijkse gegevens, linkerschaal in %)
-
07/0
304
/04
02/0
530
/05
27/0
625
/07
22/0
819
/09
17/1
014
/11
12/1
2
54Bron: CKP, laatste beschikbare gegevens: 15 december 2020.1 Leningen en verkopen op afbetaling (uitgezonderd kredietopeningen).
Wanbetalingsgraad(Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten, % van alle uitstaandecontracten in CKP/ENR)
Nieuwe leningen(geregistreerd bedrag per werkdag in CKP, in € miljoenen)
Consumentenkredieten1: nieuwe leningen en wanbetalingsgraad
Gemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste 12 maandenGemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste maandGemiddelde per werkdag over de laatste 5 werkdagen
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
7020
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
200
50.00 0
10 0.000
15 0.000
200.0 00
250.0 00
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
24/0
322
/04
21/0
519
/06
18/0
716
/08
14/0
913
/10
11/1
110
/12
Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten(dagelijkse gegevens, rechterschaal in duizenden)
Aantal uitstaande achterstallige contracten(maandelijkse gegevens, rechterschaal in duizenden)
Wanbetalingsgraad(dagelijkse gegevens, linkerschaal in %)
Wanbetalingsgraad(maandelijkse gegevens, linkerschaal in %)
-
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
10/0
517
/05
24/0
531
/05
07/0
614
/06
21/0
628
/06
05/0
712
/07
19/0
726
/07
02/0
809
/08
16/0
823
/08
30/0
806
/09
13/0
920
/09
27/0
911
/10
25/1
008
/11
22/1
106
/12
◆ Aantal consumentenleningen die genieten ofgenoten hebben van een moratorium zoalsgeregistreerd in de Centrale voor Kredieten aanParticulieren (op 6 december)
◇ 8 367 leningen
◇ waarvan 8 111 leningen op afbetaling(0,4 % van alle leningen op afbetaling)
55Bronnen: CKP, Febelfin.
Aantal hypotheekleningen onder moratorium
Moratoria voor leningen aan gezinnen
4,4 %
0,6 %
Aantal hypotheekleningen met een lopend moratoriumwaarvan: verlenging van eerder verleende moratoria
Aantal hypotheekleningen die genieten of genoten hebben van een moratoriumzoals geregistreerd in de Centrale voor Kredieten aan Particulieren
Febelfincijfers voor de 7 grootste banken
-
56Bron: Febelfin, laatste beschikbare gegevens: 30 november 2020.
Achterstanden bij leningen aan huishoudens stabiel sinds juni
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,513
/4
20/4
27/4 4/5
11/5
18/5
25/5 1/6
8/6
15/6
22/6
29/6 6/7
13/7
20/7
27/7 3/8
10/8
17/8
24/8
31/8 7/9
14/9
21/9
5/10
19/1
0
2/11
16/1
1
30/1
1
Hypothecaire leningen Consumentenkredieten
Betalingsachterstand (1-30 dagen) op hypothecaire leningen en consumentenleningen(wekelijkse gegevens, aantal leningen met een betalingsachterstand van 1-30 dagen als % van het totaal aantal leningen)
-
57
Credit indicatorscorporates
-
58Sources: ECB, NBB.
Impact of the COVID-19 crisis on lending to non-financialcorporations (NFCs)◆ Credit developments: (see next slides)
◇ While annual NFC growth of utilised loans had accelerated in March and April (in large part due todrawdowns of credit lines by multinationals), it has slowed since May.
◇ The annual growth rate of authorised (granted) credit is now lower than that observed before the pandemic◇ The annual growth rate of used credits in September and in October are influenced by a base effect due to a
large one-off transaction that took place one year earlier (only in the Central Corporate Credit Register data)◇ Monthly growth rates of utilised and authorised loans have been low since June, with some monthly growth
rates being negative◇ Loan arrears have been stable since May◇ Small or medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have larger proportions of loans in moratorium than larger firms
◆ According to the October 2020 Bank lending survey:◇ Demand for loans from Belgian enterprises in 2020Q3 was driven by liquidity needs, but also curbed by a
decline in fixed investment◇ Slight tightening in credit standards prompted by higher risk perception and lower risk tolerance
-
59Sources: ECB, NBB.
Firms perceived less favorable credit conditions◆ Belgian firms reported a slight improvement of their credit conditions in 2020Q3 compared to
2020Q2◇ Slight improvement in the assessment of the general credit conditions by firms
- Mainly due to the industry sector and large firms- From 2020, the balance of the opinions (favorable vs unfavorable) is below the historical average
◇ Small deterioration with respect to 2020Q2 regarding requirements for collateral(source: NBB survey on credit conditions)
◆ SMEs feared a significant impact on bank loan availability in 2020Q4 and 2021Q1◇ Small deterioration regarding obstacles impeding access to bank financing between April and September
2020 compared to the previous six months- Proportion of SMEs not applying for bank credit because of possible rejection, or applying for a loan but only
receiving a limited part of the amount requested, refusing credit because the cost was too high, or having theirapplication rejected = 7.2 % (against 5,9 % on average in 2017-2019 and 5.2 % from October 2019 to March 2020)
◇ But SMEs expected a sharp deterioration in availability of bank loans over the next six months(October 2020-March 2021)- Widespread across sectors(source: SAFE survey, conducted between 7 September and 16 October 2020)
-
60
Non-financial corporations
NFC credit growth in Belgium: slowdown after the peak in March andApril(year-on-year % changes1, up to October 2020)
Sources: European Central Bank (ECB), NBB (Balance Sheet Items), latest available data: 31 October 2020.1 Loans granted by resident MFIs to residents, including securitised loans and loans otherwise transferred.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Belgium Euro area
-
Reduced contribution of multinational corporations to total creditgrowth, after massive drawdowns of credit lines in March and April …
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017 2018 2019 2020
Local corporations Multinational corporations¹ Total
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017 2018 2019 2020
61Sources: NBB (Central Corporate Credit Register), latest available data: 31 October 2020.1 Firms with direct investment abroad or at least partially owned by foreign investors (10 % threshold), identified by SX.
Year-on-year growth rates for utilised credit(%)
Year-on-year growth rates for authorised credit(%)
-
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017 2018 2019 2020
Up to one year (or undefined) One to two years Two to five years Over five years Total
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017 2018 2019 2020
62Source: NBB (Central Corporate Credit Register), latest available data: 31 October 2020.
Decomposition of YoY used corporate creditgrowth by maturity(%)
… which also translates into a lower contribution of short-term loans
Decomposition of YoY authorized corporatecredit growth by maturity(%)
-
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2020m3 2020m4 2020m5 2020m6 2020m7 2020m8 2020m9 2020m10
utilised authorised
Slightly positive growth of authorised loans in October; no furtherdecline in utilised loans
63Source: NBB (Central Corporate Credit Register), latest available data: October 2020.
Monthly growth rates of loans for October ofprevious years(in %)
Monthly growth rates of authorised andutilised loans(in %)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2017m10 2018m10 2019m10 2020m10
-
- 4- 2 0 2 4 6 8
10 12
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Info
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and
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Supp
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-4-202468
1012
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Cons
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Man
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and
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Supp
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64Source: NBB (Central Corporate Credit Register), latest available data: October 2020.Note: Sectors are ordered based on the initial fall in sales due to the crisis (greater declines from right to left). “Other” contains all other sectors in the economy.
March-October growth rates of utilised loans(in %)
March-October growth rates of authorisedloans(in %)
Growth in authorised and utilised loans since start of crisis is belowhistorical averages for many vulnerable sectors
-
58
98
55
91
45
82
18
90
46
88
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
ShortTerm
LongTerm
ShortTerm
LongTerm
ShortTerm
LongTerm
ShortTerm
LongTerm
ShortTerm
LongTerm
Self-employed(1)
SMEs(2)
Corporates(3)
Public(4)
Sum of(1) to (4)= total
65
Loan developments - weeklyNFCs in weekly reporting = Self-employed + SMEs + Corporates + Public Sector Entities
Utilisation rate (=utilised/authorized)(last weekly observation, in %)
Evolution of total loans to NFCs(in %)
99.9
97.4
80
85
90
95
100
10531
/05
14/0
6
28/0
6
12/0
7
26/0
7
09/0
8
23/0
8
06/0
9
20/0
9
11/1
0
08/1
1
06/1
2
Authorised Utilised
Total loans to NFCs represented as an indexnormalized to 100 % by end May stock of loans
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 6 December 2020.Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.
-
103.2
101.4
9092949698
100102104
31/0
507
/06
14/0
621
/06
28/0
605
/07
12/0
719
/07
26/0
702
/08
09/0
816
/08
23/0
830
/08
06/0
913
/09
20/0
927
/09
11/1
025
/10
08/1
122
/11
06/1
2
97.1
92.69092949698
100102104
31/0
507
/06
14/0
621
/06
28/0
605
/07
12/0
719
/07
26/0
702
/08
09/0
816
/08
23/0
830
/08
06/0
913
/09
20/0
927
/09
11/1
025
/10
08/1
122
/11
06/1
2Authorised Utilised
101.7
100.3
9092949698
100102104
31/0
507
/06
14/0
621
/06
28/0
605
/07
12/0
719
/07
26/0
702
/08
09/0
816
/08
23/0
830
/08
06/0
913
/09
20/0
927
/09
11/1
025
/10
08/1
122
/11
06/1
2
Total loans to NFCs represented as an index normalized to 100 % by end May stock of loans66
Stable loans for firms except for a slight decline for corporatesNFCs in weekly reporting = Self-employed + SMEs + Corporates + Public Sector Entities
Evolution of total loans to SMEsLatest observation (authorized) 83 billion EUR
Evolution of total loans to self-employedLatest observation (authorized) 23 billion EUR
103.1
101.9
9092949698
100102104
31/0
507
/06
14/0
621
/06
28/0
605
/07
12/0
719
/07
26/0
702
/08
09/0
816
/08
23/0
830
/08
06/0
913
/09
20/0
927
/09
11/1
025
/10
08/1
122
/11
06/1
2
Total loans to public sector entitiesLatest observation (authorized) 37 billion EUR
Evolution of total loans to corporatesLatest observation (authorized) 139 billion EUR
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 6 December 2020.Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.
-
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
03/0
510
/05
17/0
524
/05
31/0
507
/06
14/0
621
/06
28/0
605
/07
12/0
719
/07
26/0
702
/08
09/0
816
/08
23/0
830
/08
06/0
913
/09
20/0
927
/09
04/1
011
/10
18/1
025
/10
01/1
108
/11
15/1
122
/11
29/1
106
/12
Self-employed SMEs Corporates Public
67
Number of loans in arrears or in default are not increasing (yet?)(arrears – weekly)
Number of loans in arrears or in default(in thousands of people)
Amounts in arrears or in default(in € millions)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
3/05
10/0
517
/05
24/0
531
/05
7/06
14/0
621
/06
28/0
65/
0712
/07
19/0
726
/07
2/08
9/08
16/0
823
/08
30/0
86/
0913
/09
20/0
927
/09
4/10
11/1
018
/10
25/1
01/
118/
1115
/11
22/1
129
/11
6/12
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 6 December 2020.Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.
The observed increase for SMEs on 20th September is due to a technical correction.
-
3%
53%
39%
5%
Self-employed SMEs Corporates Public
8%
30%
49%
13%
68
Total loan amounts by type of counterpartyLoan amounts in moratorium by type of counterparty
SMEs are the main beneficiaries of moratorium relative to their shareof total loans(moratorium – weekly)
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 6 December 2020.Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.
-
69
0,11,3
0,2
4,7
1,0
6,2
0,2 0,5 0,3
3,5
02468
101214161820
Short Term Long Term Short Term Long Term Short Term Long Term Short Term Long Term Short Term Long Term
Self-employed(1)
SMEs(2)
Corporates(3)
Public(4)
Sum of(1) to (4) = total
Long term loans are the main type of loans in moratorium(moratorium – weekly)
% of exposures in moratorium(last weekly observation)
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 6 December 2020.Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.
-
70
Total loan amounts by type of counterpartyLoan amounts under state guarantee by type ofcounterparty
Take-up of the state guarantee - by type of counterpartyResults, taking into account only state guarantee I(weekly data)
3,55%
45,95%50,33%
0,17%
Self-employed SMEs Corporates Public
Source: NBB/Febelfin ad hoc weekly reporting, latest available data: 6 December 2020.Note: Firm classification was provided by the banks on a best effort basis. It may differ from the official firm classification.
8%
30%
49%
13%
-
71
Bankruptcies andnew business registrations
-
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Aug 2020 Sep 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Mid-Dec 2020(current month)
72
Source: Statbel, latest available data: 13 December 2020.1 Declaration of bankruptcy by the company court.2 Although the moratorium on filings for bankruptcies came to an end on 17 June 2020, the tax administration and the ONSS applied a de facto moratorium on tax and social security debts.
Other measures taken were the deferment of payment of the annual company contribution (until 31 October 2020) and the social security contributions (until 15 December 2020), and the reintroduction of a temporarysuspension of seizures. On Friday 6 November 2020, a new moratorium on bankruptcies until 31 January 2021 was approved towards businesses forced to close temporarily following the emergency measures takento limit COVID-19 and a further extension to 31 December for the payment of the annual company contribution. A new draft judicial reorganisation procedure is expected by 31 January 2021. For employersstruggling with the crisis, the ONSS agrees to an exceptional amicable payment plan with a maximum duration of 24 months for the settlement of sums due for the year 2020 (a.o. holiday pay for the 2019financial year, the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters of 2020). At the level of the FPS Finance, companies in difficulty as a result of the coronavirus can apply for support measures until 31 March 2021 by meansof a payment plan, exemption from interest on arrears and remission of fines for non-payment regarding several taxes..
(# by activity)Bankruptcies(# by region)
The number of bankruptcies1 stabilises in November and remainsbelow the 2019 level …... since several provisions adopted to support businesses are still in place2
◆ About 96 % of bankruptcies are within the ‘0 to 9 workers’company size class
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020 VLA 2020 BRU 2020 WAL 2019 Belgium Transport & other servicesTradeIndustries & energy
Hotel & restaurantBuildingAgriculture & fisheries
-
73Source: Statbel, latest available data: 13 December 2020.1 Declaration of bankruptcy by the company court.
(# by activity)Bankruptcies1(# by region)
Weekly bankruptcies figures falling steadily since mid-November …… increasingly below the 2015-19 average
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
3-910-1617-2324-3031-Sep 67-1314-2021-2728-Oct 45-1112-1819-2526-Nov 12-89-1516-2223-2930-Dec 67-13 (p)
August September October November Dec
VLA BRU WAL Avg 2015-19 Belgium
◆ Since August 31, the number of bankruptcies remains 33 % below the2015-19 average while in August, declared bankruptcies were close to it
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
3-910-1617-2324-3031-Sep 67-1314-2021-2728-Oct 45-1112-1819-2526-Nov 12-89-1516-2223-2930-Dec 67-13 (p)
August September October November Dec
Transport & other servicesTradeIndustries & energy
Hotel & restaurantBuildingAgriculture & fisheries
-
74
New businesses1
Business startups remain low in September according to seasonalpatterns… but are still higher than in 2019
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
VLA BRU WAL 2019 Belgium
Source: Statbel, latest available data: September 2020.1 Business creation as measured by entities registering (first registrations & re-registrations) as a VAT unit in the Crossroads Bank for Enterprises.
-
75
Financial markets
-
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
VIX VSTOXX
Financial markets supported by vaccine prospects
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
04/2
018
06/2
018
08/2
018
10/2
018
12/2
018
02/2
019
04/2
019
06/2
019
08/2
019
10/2
019
12/2
019
02/2
020
04/2
020
06/2
020
08/2
020
10/2
020
12/2
020
BEL 20 Euro Stoxx 50 FTSE 100 S&P 500
◆ Despite increasing number of COVID-19 cases and mobility restrictions in the US and Europe (and disappointing US job and retail sales data forNovember), markets performed well due to prospects of successful vaccines.
◆ Progress made towards a new fiscal stimulus in the US, optimism over a Brexit deal and the ECB decision to extend its PEPP also had a favorableimpact in December.
◆ However, volatility remains above its historical average.
76Source: Refinitiv, latest available data: 17 December 2020.
Major stock market indices(01/2018=100)
Implied stock market volatility(in %)
-
-80-60-40-20
020406080
100120140160
07/2
019
08/2
019
09/2
019
10/2
019
11/2
019
12/2
019
01/2
020
02/2
020
03/2
020
04/2
020
05/2
020
06/2
020
07/2
020
08/2
020
09/2
020
10/2
020
11/2
020
12/2
020
Crude Oil WTI Metals index
Copper Gold
◆ The announcement of positive vaccine clinical trialresults and fast-tracked vaccination plans raised theprospects of future demand, which sustained oilprices. Moreover, OPEC and Russia agreed to asmaller than initially planned increase in supply fromJanuary onwards.
◆ Despite declining from its August peak, gold priceremains high in an uncertain environment.
◆ Prices of other metals tied to industrial demand arebenefitting from the prospect of a post-pandemicrecovery and investments in green technologies.
77Source: Datastream, latest available data: 17 December 2020.Note: the metals index includes aluminium, copper, lead, iron ore, tin, nickel and zinc.
Commodity price indices(01/07/2019 = 100)
Oil prices responded positively to vaccination plans
-
Corporate spreads closer to their pre-crisis level
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
90007
/201
9
08/2
019
09/2
019
10/2
019
11/2
019
12/2
019
01/2
020
02/2
020
03/2
020
04/2
020
05/2
020
06/2
020
07/2
020
08/2
020
09/2
020
10/2
020
11/2
020
12/2
020
US BBB Euro BBB US BB Euro BB
◆ Despite episodes of renewed uncertainty related tothe sanitary and economic prospects, spreads easedgradually since late March, helped by supportivemonetary and fiscal policies
◆ After a temporary surge related to the increase inCOVID-19 cases and the uncertainty around the USfiscal stimulus and elections, corporate spreadsrecently eased following US elections results and thefavorable vaccine trial results
78Source: BofA Merrill Lynch from Datastream, latest available data: 17 December 2020.
Corporate bond spreads (€ or $ denominated)(Difference vis-à-vis sovereign, basis points)
-
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,501
/201
803
/201
805
/201
8
07/2
018
09/2
018
11/2
018
01/2
019
03/2
019
05/2
019
07/2
019
09/2
019
11/2
019
01/2
020
03/2
020
05/2
020
07/2
020
09/2
020
11/2
020
Belgium Spain France Italy Netherlands
Sovereign bond spreads trending downwards
◆ Sovereign spreads now closer to their pre-crisis levelswith IT spread reaching a two-year low.
◆ Despite the increase in new COVID-19 cases in Europeand the following mobility restrictions, sovereignspreads still follow a downward trend, also helped byfavorable vaccine prospects and an extension of theECB’s PEPP duration and amount (by €500 billion).
79Source: Refinitiv, latest available data: 17 December 2020.
10-year spreads vis-à-vis Germany (EA)(%)
-
80
International outlook
-
81Sources: OECD, OxCGRT, Google.1 Country sample consists of 45 OECD and major non-OECD countries. Each dot represents a country-quarter. China is excluded because of lack of Google mobility data.2 Oxford Stringency index codifies 9 types of containment measures. Index levels take values between 0 (no restrictions) and 100 (hard nationwide lockdown).3 Google mobility report scores for category “retail and recreation”. Level scores indicate percentage deviation from pre-COVID baseline.
… and changes in mobility3Overall, GDP growth disparities1 areassociated with changes in intensityof confinement measures2 …
Cross-country growth disparities correlate with lockdown stringency,and mobility
BE Q1
BE Q2
BE Q3
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80
Real
GDP
gro
wth
(qoq
%)
Oxford stringency index (qoq change)
2020Q12020Q22020Q3
BE Q1
BE Q2
BE Q3
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
Real
GDP
gro
wth
(qoq
%)
Google mobility retail/recreation (qoq change)
-
82
Composite mobility indicator1(% change from pre-COVID-19 baseline; 7-day moving average)
New COVID infections and lockdowns weigh on mobility, but less sothan during first wave
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
4022
/02
01/0
309
/03
17/0
325
/03
02/0
410
/04
18/0
426
/04
04/0
512
/05
20/0
528
/05
05/0
613
/06
21/0
629
/06
07/0
715
/07
23/0
731
/07
08/0
816
/08
24/0
801
/09
09/0
917
/09
25/0
903
/10
11/1
019
/10
27/1
004
/11
12/1
120
/11
28/1
106
/12
14/1
222
/12
Belgium Netherlands France Germany Spain UK Sweden US Japan
Sources: Google, Apple. Construction of mobility composite inspired by Capital Economics.1 Composite indicator is a simple average of changes in Google mobility report scores for categories “retail and recreation”, “workplaces”, and “transit stations”, and changes in Apple routing requests for
driving. Pre-COVID-19 baseline is the median value (for the corresponding day of the week) of each sub-indicator over the period January – 6 February. Latest values are for 17 November.
-
83Source: Refinitiv.
Service sector PMIs(diffusion index; 50+ signals expected expansion)
Manufacturing PMIs(diffusion index; 50+ signals expected expansion)
Second wave of COVID infections and lockdowns weigh onsentiment in services sector
30
35
40
45
50
55
6012
/201
9
1/20
20
2/20
20
3/20
20
4/20
20
5/20
20
6/20
20
7/20
20
8/20
20
9/20
20
10/2
020
11/2
020
12/2
020
Euro area US Japan China(Caixin) UK
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
12/2
019
01/2
020
02/2
020
03/2
020
04/2
020
05/2
020
06/2
020
07/2
020
08/2
020
09/2
020
10/2
020
11/2
020
12/2
020
-
84
Euro area: extra-EA-19 goods export volumes2(% change yoy)
World goods trade volumes1(average of exports and imports, % change yoy)
World trade regains some momentum, with China leading the way
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1/20
18
3/20
18
5/20
18
7/20
18
9/20
18
11/2
018
1/20
193/
2019
5/20
19
7/20
19
9/20
19
11/2
019
1/20
20
3/20
20
5/20
20
7/20
209/
2020
World Advanced economiesEmerging economies Euro areaChina
-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-505
101520
1/20
18
3/20
18
5/20
18
7/20
18
9/20
18
11/2
018
1/20
19
3/20
19
5/20
19
7/20
19
9/20
19
11/2
019
1/20
20
3/20
20
5/20
20
7/20
20
9/20
20
Consumer goods (excl. transport eqp.)
Intermediate goods
Capital goodsSources: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), Eurostat, Refinitiv.1 Latest available data: September 2020.2 Latest available data: August 2020.
Chinese exportsboosted by demandfor COVID-19-relatedproducts, incl. PPE,medical equipment,work-from-homeelectronics.
-
85
Real GDP forecasts(%)
Forecasts for 2020/2021OECD Economic Outlook: “Turning hope into reality“
-14-12-10-8-6-4-202468
1020
2020
2120
2020
2120
2020
2120
2020
2120
2020
2120
2020
2120
2020
2120
2020
2120
2020
2120
2020
2120
2020
2120
2020
21
World Euroarea
DE FR IT ES NL BE UK US JP CN
OECD Econimic Outlook Dec 2020 OECD Interim Economic Outlook Sept 2020Consensus Dec 2020 (survey mean) Consensus Sep 2020 (survey mean)
Moderate upward revisions for 2020since September reflect:
◆ Progress with vaccines andtreatment
◆ Continued fiscal and monetarypolicy support, leading to rapidrecovery in some sectors
◆ Assumption that renewed virusoutbreaks remain contained
Sources: OECD, Consensus Economics.
-
86
World GDP1(index, 2019Q4 = 100)
Towards a 95 % world economyConsiderable uncertainty remains around baseline projections
86889092949698
100102104106108110
2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4OECD Nov 2019 OECD Jun 2020 (single-hit) OECD Sep 2020
OECD Dec 2020 baseline Dec 2020 upside Dec 2020 downside
World GDPstill 5 % belowpre-virus pathby end 2022
Source: OECD1 Dashed lines represent upside scenario (resurgence in business and consumer confidence) and downside scenario (heightened uncertainty under receding prospects
for early deployment of vaccine) around baseline OECD (December) projections.
-
87
Selected European countries: Real GDP1(index, 2019Q4 = 100)
Major blocs: Real GDP1(index, 2019Q4 = 100)
Expected recoveryVariations across countries
7580859095
100105110115
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2021
Q1
2021
Q2
2021
Q3
2021
Q4
Euro areaUSChinaJapanConsensus forecast (15/12, average of last 8+ revisions)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2021
Q1
2021
Q2
2021
Q3
2021
Q4
GermanyFranceSpainUKConsensus forecast (15/12, average of last 8+ revisions)
Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Consensus Economics, Destatis, Eurostat, Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE),Japanese Cabinet Office (JP CAO), National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), Office for National Statistics (ONS), Refinitiv.
1 Consensus levels implied from forecasted yoy changes.
-
88Sources: CEIC, Refinitiv. Latest available data: October/November 2020.
Retail sales(% change, yoy)
Industrial production(% change, yoy)
China vs the rest: more resilient supply, more hesitant demand?
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
151/
2019
2/20
193/
2019
4/20
195/
2019
6/20
197/
2019
8/20
199/
2019
10/2
019
11/2
019
12/2
019
1/20
202/
2020
3/20
204/
2020
5/20
206/
2020
7/20
208/
2020
9/20
2010
/202
011
/202
0
Euro area China Korea US
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
01/2
019
02/2
019
03/2
019
04/2
019
05/2
019
06/2
019
07/2
019
08/2
019
09/2
019
10/2
019
11/2
019
12/2
019
01/2
020
02/2
020
03/2
020
04/2
020
05/2
020
06/2
020
07/2
020
08/2
020
09/2
020
10/2
020
11/2
020
-
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
12/2
019
1/20
20
2/20
20
3/20
20
4/20
20
5/20
20
6/20
20
7/20
20
8/20
20
9/20
20
10/2
020
11/2
020
12/2
020
Industry Retail Accommodation Food & drink services Finance Travel services
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
12/2
019
1/20
20
2/20
20
3/20
20
4/20
20
5/20
20
6/20
20
7/20
20
8/20
20
9/20
20
10/2
020
11/2
020
12/2
020
89
Euro Area: Employment expectations(balance of firms; expectations over next 3 months)
Euro Area: Demand expectations(balance of firms; expectations over next 3 months)
Euro-Area: K-recovery in the making?Heterogeneity across sectors: V for some, long-lasting scars for others
Sources: OECD, European Commission (EC), Refinitiv. Latest available data: November 2020.
-
90
France:Share of employees intemporary unemployment(% of total FTE employees)
Germany:Average weekly paidworking hours
Euro Area: K-recovery in the making?Labour market view … paving the way for sectoral reallocations?
20 25 30 35 40
Air transport
Accommodation
Food and beverage services
Manufacturing of motor vehicles/trailers
Retail trade
Industry and services
2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2
0 20 40 60 80 100
Construction
Information and communication services
Public administration, education, health
Manufacturing of transport equipment
Trade
Transport and storage
Accomodation and restaurants
April June August September October
Sources: Destatis, Dares. Latest available data: October 2020.
-
91
France: Company failures(number of legal entities, seasonally and working day-adjusted)
Germany: