cotton market fundamentals & price outlook
DESCRIPTION
Both New York futures and the A Index trended sharply lower in recent weeks. Chinese and Indian prices were stable. Pakistani prices decreased.TRANSCRIPT
NY Futures and A Index Decrease, Chinese Prices Stable
Recent Price Data
cents/lb
Latest Value
Latest Month
Last 12 Months
(Jul 11) (Jun) (Jul13 -Jun14) NY Nearby 68.7 85.5 85.8 A Index 83.9 90.9 91.4 CC Index 126.6 126.7 140.7 Indian Spot 90.0 89.9 88.9 Pakistani Spot 74.0 83.9 79.6
Additional price data available here Price definitions available here
World Balance Sheet million 480 lb bales 2014/15
2013/14 Jun Jul Beg. Stocks 90.0 99.0 100.6 Production 118.3 115.9 116.4 Mill-Use 108.5 112.3 111.3 Ending Stocks 100.6 102.7 105.7 Stocks/Use 92.7% 91.5% 94.9%
China Balance Sheet
million 480 lb bales 2014/15 2013/14 Jun Jul
Beg. Stocks 50.4 60.3 61.3 Production 32.0 29.5 29.5 Imports 13.5 8.0 8.0 Mill-Use 34.5 37.0 36.5 Ending Stocks 61.3 60.8 62.3 Stocks/Use 177.7% 164.2% 170.6%
World-less-China Balance Sheet
million 480 lb bales 2014/15 2013/14 Jun Jul
Beg. Stocks 39.7 38.7 39.2 Production 86.3 86.4 86.9 Imports 27.0 27.6 27.5 Mill-Use 74.0 75.3 74.8 Exports 40.4 35.5 35.5 Ending Stocks 39.2 42.0 43.4 Stocks/Use 34.3% 37.9% 39.3%
Note: Additional balance sheet data available here
60
70
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90
100
110
120
130
140
CC Index
A Index
NY Nearby
RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT
Both New York futures and the A Index trended sharply lower in recent weeks. Chinese and Indian prices were stable. Pakistani prices decreased.
The December New York futures contract has followed a steep downward trend since late June. Over the past few weeks, December prices fell about ten cents/lb and marked new life-of-contract lows. Nearby prices are the lowest since June 2012.
The A Index prices also decreased. This time of year, when the crop year changes and new supplies will soon come onto the market, Cotlook implements a dual price system that quotes prices for both the expiring and upcoming crop years. Currently, the conventional A Index describes prices for near-term delivery of 2013/14 supplies (shipment in July or August). This price series decreased five cents/lb in recent weeks and has most recently been holding to values near 85 cents/lb. The “Forward A Index” describes prices for delivery in the coming crop year (shipment October-February). In the past few weeks, the Forward A Index lost eight cents/lb and has been trading below 78 cents/lb.
Due to renewed strengthening of the RMB against the dollar, the CC Index has been stable in international terms (near 127 cents/lb) despite decreasing slightly in local terms (from 17,400 RMB/ton to just below 17,300 RMB/ton).
Spot rates for India’s Shankar-6 variety were stable in international terms, holding to levels near 90 cents over the last four weeks. In domestic terms, prices traded between 42,000 and 43,000 INR/candy.
Pakistani spot rates closely tracked movement in New York futures and fell nearly ten cents/lb recently (from 84 to 75 cents/lb). In local terms, prices decreased from 6,800 to 6,050 PKR/maund.
SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
World production estimates for both the 2013/14 and 2014/15 crop years increased slightly in the latest USDA report (+200,000 bales to 118.3 million for 2013/14, +500,000 to 116.4 million for 2014/15). Global mill-use figures decreased (-1.4 million to 108.5 million for 2013/14, -1.0 million to 111.3 million for 2014/15). A cumulative result was a 3.0 million bale increase to the forecast for 2014/15 ending stocks (from 102.7 to 105.7 million bales). Revisions narrowed the separation between ending stocks and mill-use and lifted the stocks-to-use ratio to 95%, implying that all but 5% of 2014/15 demand could be met through consumption of stocks alone.
Meanwhile, expectations for the 2014/15 global harvest are rising. Most of this month’s increase to the world production forecast was a result of a 1.5 million bale addition to the projected U.S. crop (to 16.5 million). Given the 300,000 acre increase to the planted acres estimate in the USDA’s June Acreage Report (+3%, to 11.1 million acres) and the improvement in national crop conditions with the rainfall in West Texas since late May, a significant increase in the U.S. production figure was anticipated by most market observers. The size of the revision was a source of uncertainty, and the 10% increase was substantial.
JULY 2014
Monthly Economic Letter Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook
MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
Please forward comments and questions to [email protected] To subscribe to the Monthly Economic Letter click here and follow the instructions in the Email Subscriptions box on the left side of the page. Sources: Price data from Reuters, Cotlook, Cotton Assn. of India, and Karachi Cotton Assn. Supply, demand, and trade data from the USDA.Disclaimer: The information contained herein is derived from public and private subscriber news sources believed to be reliable; however, Cotton Incorporated cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. No responsibility is assumed for the use of this information and no express or implied warranties or guarantees are made. The information contained herein should not be relied upon for the purpose of making investment decisions. This communication is not intended to forecast or predict future prices or events.
© 2014 Cotton Incorporated. All rights reserved; America's Cotton Producers and Importers
World Cotton Production million 480lb bales 2014/15 2013/14 Jun Jul China 32.0 29.5 29.5 India 30.5 28.5 28.0 United States 12.9 15.0 16.5 Pakistan 9.5 9.5 9.5 Brazil 7.8 8.3 8.0 Rest of World 25.6 25.1 24.9 World 118.3 115.9 116.4
World Cotton Mill-Use million 480lb bales 2014/15 2013/14 Jun Jul China 34.5 37.0 36.5 India 23.8 24.3 24.3 Pakistan 10.7 11.3 11.0 Turkey 6.3 6.4 6.4 Brazil 4.2 4.3 4.3
Rest of World 29.1 29.0 28.9
World 108.5 112.4 111.3
World Cotton Exports million 480lb bales 2014/15 2013/14 Jun Jul United States 10.5 9.7 10.2 India 9.0 5.7 5.5 Brazil 2.3 3.3 3.4 Australia 4.5 3.1 3.3 Uzbekistan 2.7 2.5 2.5 Rest of World 11.5 11.3 10.7 World 40.5 35.6 35.6
World Cotton Imports
million 480lb bales 2014/15 2013/14 Jun Jul China 13.5 8.0 8.0 Bangladesh 4.1 4.3 4.4 Turkey 4.5 3.8 3.9 Vietnam 3.3 2.9 2.9 Indonesia 2.7 2.8 2.8 Rest of World 12.5 13.8 13.6 World 40.5 35.6 35.5
World Cotton Ending Stocks million 480lb bales 2014/15 2013/14 Jun Jul China 61.3 60.8 62.3 India 11.0 10.5 10.3 Brazil 7.4 8.1 8.3 United States 2.7 4.3 5.2 Pakistan 2.6 3.0 2.8 Rest of World 15.6 16.0 16.8 World 100.6 102.7 105.7
Note: Additional supply and demand data available here
Even though the larger crop forecast was accompanied by partially offsetting increases in demand, with both the 2014/15 U.S. export (+500,000 bales, to 10.2 million) and domestic mill-use figures (+100,000 bales, to 3.8 million) being revised higher, a significant increase was made to 2014/15 ending stocks (+900,000 bales). Current projections indicate U.S. ending stocks will nearly double in the coming crop year, rising from 2.7 million in 2013/14 to 5.2 million, and will reach their highest level since 2008/09. Since cotton held in the U.S. is available to the world market, the build-up of U.S. stocks could keep downward pressure on prices around the world.
Other important country-level revisions to USDA production figures included those for Brazil (-300,000 bales, to 8.0 million) and Australia (-400,000 bales, to 2.7 million). Planting for the 2014/15 season has not yet occurred for these southern hemisphere producers, and the recent decrease in world price may provide some incentive to plant other crops. Australia is also among the countries currently suffering from dry conditions. Another is India, where major growing regions are more than 60% behind the long-term average for monsoon-related rainfall. The monsoon, which generally occurs between June and September, typically brings more than 80% of annual rainfall. Time remains for the monsoon to accelerate, but the slow pace thus far was a likely reason why India’s production figure decreased 500,000 bales (to 28.0 million).
In terms of consumption, the largest changes were for China, where 2013/14 mill-use was lowered 1.0 million bales (to 34.5 million) and 2014/15 use was lowered 500,000 bales (to 36.5 million). Other notable reductions to 2014/15 forecasts were made for Pakistan (-300,000 bales, to 11.0 million) and Brazil (-200,000 bales, to 4.0 million).
PRICE OUTLOOK
In recent years, price movement could be explained through several principal factors. The most significant of these would be Chinese cotton policies that concentrated global supplies in China. This concentration was a function not only of China’s accumulation of reserves, but also of stronger Chinese demand for fiber and yarn imports that prevented stocks from accumulating elsewhere. Lower stocks outside China, which are generally considered available to the market, supported prices despite record volumes at the global level. Another factor that supported prices was the weather, with West Texas, the largest growing region in the U.S., suffering three successive years of severe drought.
It appears that these factors that supported prices will diminish in the coming crop year. West Texas has received above average rainfall this calendar year and China has indicated it will no longer support growers through purchases by its reserve system. Chinese imports of fiber are expected to fall 40% and Chinese yarn import demand began to decrease last fall. Due to these factors, stocks outside of China are forecast to reach a new record in 2014/15. The increase in available supply has already pushed prices lower. Developments involving growing conditions around the world and Chinese policy should determine whether recent decreases will be sustained or augmented.
Charts - DailyCharts - MonthlyTables
Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms (cents/lb) due to changes in exchange rates.
A Index & NY Nearby Chinese Prices Indian Prices Pakistani Prices
Balance Sheets (bales) Balance Sheets (tons) Supply & Demand (bales) Supply & Demand (tons)
List of Charts and TablesA Index & NY Nearby Chinese Prices Indian Prices Pakistani Prices
16,500
17,500
18,500
19,500
20,500
21,500
110
120
130
140
150
160
cents/lb RMB/ton
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
60
70
80
90
100
110
A Index NY Nearby
One Year of Daily A Index and NY Nearby Pricescents/lb
One Year of Daily CC Index (Grade 328) Priceslocal terms (RMB/ton)cents/lb
MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
Note: Movement in prices in cents/lb and local terms will not be identical due to changes in exchange rates.
Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms (cents/lb) due to changes in exchange rates.
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4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
60
70
80
90
100
110
cents/lb PKR/maund
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
70
80
90
100
110
120
cents/lb INR/candy
One Year of Daily Indian Spot Prices (Shankar-6 Variety)cents/lb
One Year of Daily Pakistani Spot Pricescents/lb
local terms (INR/candy, candy=355.62 kg)
local terms (PKR/maund, maund = 37.32 kg)
MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms (cents/lb) due to changes in exchange rates.
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17,000
18,500
20,000
21,500
23,000
24,500
26,000
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
cents/lb RMB/ton
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
A Index NY Nearby
Three Years of Monthy A Index and NY Nearby Pricescents/lb
Three Years of Monthly CC Index (Grade 328) Priceslocal terms (RMB/ton)cents/lb
MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
Note: Differences in price movement in local and international terms (cents/lb) due to changes in exchange rates.
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30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
cents/lb INR/candy
Three Years of Monthly Indian Spot Prices (Shankar-6 Variety)cents/lb local terms (INR/candy, candy=355.62 kg)
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
cents/lb PKR/maund
Three Years of Monthly Pakistani Spot Pricescents/lb local terms (PKR/maund, maund = 37.32 kg)
MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
World Balance Sheetmillion 480 lb. bales 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
Beginning Stocks 47.1 50.4 73.5 90.0 99.0 100.6Production 117.0 126.6 123.0 118.3 115.9 116.4Supply 164.1 177.0 196.4 208.4 214.9 217.0
Mill-Use 114.7 103.1 106.8 108.5 112.3 111.3
Ending Stocks 50.4 73.5 90.0 100.6 102.7 105.7
Stocks/Use Ratio 43.9% 71.3% 84.3% 92.7% 91.5% 94.9%
World-Less-China Balance Sheetmillion 480 lb. bales 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
Beginning Stocks 32.9 39.8 42.4 39.7 38.7 39.2Production 86.5 92.6 88.0 86.3 86.4 86.9Imports 24.4 20.6 25.9 27.0 27.6 27.5Supply 143.8 153.0 156.2 153.0 152.7 153.7
Mill-Use 68.7 65.1 70.8 74.0 75.3 74.8Exports 35.3 45.8 46.6 40.4 35.5 35.5Demand 104.0 110.9 117.4 114.4 110.8 110.4
Ending Stocks 39.8 42.4 39.7 39.2 42.0 43.4Stocks/Use Ratio 38.2% 38.2% 33.8% 34.3% 37.9% 39.3%
China Balance Sheetmillion 480 lb. bales 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
Beginning Stocks 14.2 10.6 31.1 50.4 60.3 61.3Production 30.5 34.0 35.0 32.0 29.5 29.5Imports 12.0 24.5 20.3 13.5 8.0 8.0Supply 56.7 69.1 86.4 95.9 97.8 98.8
Mill-Use 46.0 38.0 36.0 34.5 37.0 36.5Exports 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1Demand 46.1 38.1 36.0 34.6 37.1 36.6
Ending Stocks 10.6 31.1 50.4 61.3 60.8 62.3Stocks/Use Ratio 23.0% 82.0% 140.0% 177.0% 164.0% 170.3%
Source: USDA
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MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
India Balance Sheetmillion 480 lb. bales 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
Beginning Stocks 9.7 11.8 10.9 12.0 11.0 11.0Production 27.2 29.0 28.5 30.5 28.5 28.0Imports 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.1Supply 37.3 41.4 40.6 43.2 40.5 40.1
Mill-Use 20.6 19.5 21.9 23.8 24.3 24.3Exports 5.0 11.1 7.8 9.0 5.7 5.5Demand 25.6 30.5 29.6 32.8 30.0 29.8
Ending Stocks 11.8 10.9 12.0 11.0 10.5 10.3Stocks/Use Ratio 46.0% 36.0% 40.0% 33.0% 35.1% 34.7%
U.S. Balance Sheetmillion 480 lb. bales 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
Beginning Stocks 2.9 2.6 3.4 3.9 2.7 2.7Production 18.1 15.6 17.3 12.9 15.0 16.5Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Supply 21.1 18.2 20.7 16.8 17.7 19.2
Mill-Use 3.9 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8Exports 14.4 11.7 13.0 10.5 9.7 10.2Demand 18.3 15.0 16.5 14.1 13.4 14.0
Ending Stocks 2.6 3.4 3.9 2.7 4.3 5.2Stocks/Use Ratio 14.0% 22.0% 24.0% 19.0% 32.1% 37.1%
Pakistan Balance Sheetmillion 480 lb. bales 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
Beginning Stocks 3.0 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6Production 8.6 10.6 9.3 9.5 9.5 9.5Imports 1.4 0.9 2.2 1.5 2.5 2.2Supply 13.1 14.0 14.3 13.9 14.7 14.3
Mill-Use 9.9 10.0 11.0 10.7 11.3 11.0Exports 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5Demand 10.6 11.2 11.5 11.3 11.8 11.5
Ending Stocks 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.6 3.0 2.8Stocks/Use Ratio 24.0% 25.0% 25.0% 23.0% 25.2% 24.5%
Source: USDA
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MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
World Cotton Productionmillion 480 lb. bales 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
China 30.5 34.0 35.0 32.0 29.5 29.5India 27.2 29.0 28.5 30.5 28.5 28.0United States 18.1 15.6 17.3 12.9 15.0 16.5Pakistan 8.6 10.6 9.3 9.5 9.5 9.5Brazil 9.0 8.7 6.0 7.8 8.3 8.0Uzbekistan 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.2Turkey 2.1 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.9 2.9Australia 4.2 5.5 4.6 4.1 3.1 2.7Turkmenistan 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5Greece 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.4Argentina 1.4 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2Burkina 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1Mexico 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1Rest of World 7.7 9.9 9.3 8.9 8.7 8.8
African Franc Zone 2.1 3.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9EU-27 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7
World 117.0 126.6 123.0 118.3 115.9 116.4
World Cotton Exportsmillion 480 lb. bales 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
United States 14.4 11.7 13.0 10.5 9.7 10.2India 5.0 11.1 7.8 9.0 5.7 5.5Brazil 2.0 4.8 4.3 2.3 3.3 3.4Australia 2.5 4.6 6.2 4.5 3.1 3.3Uzbekistan 2.7 2.5 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.5Greece 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1Burkina 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0Mali 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9Malaysia 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8Turkmenistan 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7Cote d'Ivoire 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6Cameroon 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5Pakistan 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5Rest of World 4.7 5.3 5.7 5.0 5.1 4.9
African Franc Zone 2.0 2.3 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5EU-27 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4
World 35.5 45.9 46.7 40.5 35.6 35.6
Source: USDA
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MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
World Cotton Consumptionmillion 480 lb. bales 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
China 46.0 38.0 36.0 34.5 37.0 36.5
India 20.6 19.5 21.9 23.8 24.3 24.3Pakistan 9.9 10.0 11.0 10.7 11.3 11.0Turkey 5.6 5.6 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.4Bangladesh 4.2 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.3Brazil 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.0United States 3.9 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8Vietnam 1.6 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.9 2.9Indonesia 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7Mexico 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8
Thailand 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.6
Uzbekistan 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5South Korea 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3Rest of World 10.6 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.3
African Franc Zone 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
EU-27 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9
World 114.7 103.1 106.8 108.5 112.3 111.3
World Cotton Importsmillion 480 lb. bales 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
China 12.0 24.5 20.3 13.5 8.0 8.0Bangladesh 4.3 3.3 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4Turkey 3.4 2.4 3.7 4.5 3.8 3.9
Vietnam 1.6 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.9 2.9
Indonesia 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8
Pakistan 1.4 0.9 2.2 1.5 2.5 2.2Thailand 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.6
South Korea 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4
India 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.1
Malaysia 0.3 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.1Mexico 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1Taiwan 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9Egypt 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4
Rest of World 5.3 3.8 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9
African Franc Zone 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0EU-27 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
World Total 36.4 45.1 46.2 40.5 35.6 35.5
Source: USDA
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MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
World Balance Sheetmillion metric tons 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
Beginning Stocks 10.3 11.0 16.0 19.6 21.6 21.9Production 25.5 27.6 26.8 25.8 25.2 25.3Supply 35.7 38.5 42.8 45.4 46.8 47.2
Mill-Use 25.0 22.4 23.2 23.6 24.4 24.2
Ending Stocks 11.0 16.0 19.6 21.9 22.4 23.0
Stocks/Use Ratio 43.9% 71.3% 84.3% 92.7% 91.5% 94.9%
World-Less-China Balance Sheetmillion metric tons 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
Beginning Stocks 7.2 8.7 9.2 8.6 8.4 8.5Production 18.8 20.2 19.1 18.8 18.8 18.9Imports 5.3 4.5 5.6 5.9 6.0 6.0Supply 31.3 33.3 34.0 33.3 33.2 33.5
Mill-Use 15.0 14.2 15.4 16.1 16.4 16.3Exports 7.7 10.0 10.2 8.8 7.7 7.7Demand 22.7 24.1 25.6 24.9 24.1 24.0
Ending Stocks 8.7 9.2 8.6 8.5 9.1 9.5Stocks/Use Ratio 38.2% 38.2% 33.8% 34.3% 37.9% 39.3%
China Balance Sheetmillion metric tons 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
Beginning Stocks 3.1 2.3 6.8 11.0 13.1 13.3Production 6.6 7.4 7.6 7.0 6.4 6.4Imports 2.6 5.3 4.4 2.9 1.7 1.7Supply 12.4 15.1 18.8 20.9 21.3 21.5
Mill-Use 10.0 8.3 7.8 7.5 8.1 7.9Exports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Demand 10.0 8.3 7.8 7.5 8.1 8.0
Ending Stocks 2.3 6.8 11.0 13.3 13.2 13.6Stocks/Use Ratio 23.0% 82.0% 140.0% 177.0% 164.0% 170.3%
Source: USDA
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MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
India Balance Sheetmillion metric tons 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
Beginning Stocks 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4Production 5.9 6.3 6.2 6.6 6.2 6.1Imports 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2Supply 8.1 9.0 8.8 9.4 8.8 8.7
Mill-Use 4.5 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.3Exports 1.1 2.4 1.7 2.0 1.2 1.2Demand 5.6 6.6 6.4 7.1 6.5 6.5
Ending Stocks 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2Stocks/Use Ratio 46.0% 36.0% 40.0% 33.0% 35.1% 34.7%
U.S. Balance Sheetmillion metric tons 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
Beginning Stocks 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6Production 3.9 3.4 3.8 2.8 3.3 3.6Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Supply 4.6 4.0 4.5 3.7 3.9 4.2
Mill-Use 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8Exports 3.1 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.2Demand 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.1 2.9 3.0
Ending Stocks 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.1Stocks/Use Ratio 14.0% 22.0% 24.0% 19.0% 32.1% 37.1%
Pakistan Balance Sheetmillion metric tons 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
Beginning Stocks 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6Production 1.9 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1Imports 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5Supply 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1
Mill-Use 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.4Exports 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Demand 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.5
Ending Stocks 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6Stocks/Use Ratio 24.0% 25.0% 25.0% 23.0% 25.2% 24.5%
Source: USDA
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MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
World Cotton Productionmillion metric tons 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
China 6.6 7.4 7.6 7.0 6.4 6.4India 5.9 6.3 6.2 6.6 6.2 6.1United States 3.9 3.4 3.8 2.8 3.3 3.6Pakistan 1.9 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1Brazil 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.7Uzbekistan 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9Turkey 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6Australia 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6Turkmenistan 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Greece 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Argentina 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3Burkina 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2Mexico 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Rest of World 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9
African Franc Zone 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8EU-27 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
World 25.5 27.6 26.8 25.8 25.2 25.3
World Cotton Exportsmillion metric tons 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
United States 3.1 2.6 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.2India 1.1 2.4 1.7 2.0 1.2 1.2Brazil 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.7Australia 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.7Uzbekistan 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5Greece 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2Burkina 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2Mali 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Malaysia 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Turkmenistan 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1Cote d'Ivoire 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1Cameroon 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Pakistan 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Rest of World 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1
African Franc Zone 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8EU-27 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
World 7.7 10.0 10.2 8.8 7.7 7.7
Source: USDA
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MONTHLY ECONOMIC LETTER | JULY 2014
World Cotton Consumptionmillion metric tons 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
China 10.0 8.3 7.8 7.5 8.1 7.9India 4.5 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.3Pakistan 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.4Turkey 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4Bangladesh 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9Brazil 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9United States 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8Vietnam 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6Indonesia 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6Mexico 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4Thailand 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3Uzbekistan 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3South Korea 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3Rest of World 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0
African Franc Zone 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0EU-27 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
World Total 25.0 22.4 23.2 23.6 24.4 24.2
World Cotton Importsmillion metric tons 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2014/15
June July
China 2.6 5.3 4.4 2.9 1.7 1.7Bangladesh 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9Turkey 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8Vietnam 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6Indonesia 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6Pakistan 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5Thailand 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4South Korea 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3India 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2Malaysia 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Mexico 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Taiwan 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Egypt 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Rest of World 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
African Franc Zone 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0EU-27 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
World Total 7.9 9.8 10.1 8.8 7.7 7.7
Source: USDA
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