cost model development using costmod dave stockton taqui shaik
DESCRIPTION
Cost Model Development using Costmod Dave Stockton Taqui Shaik. Contents. Basics of the cost model development process Basics of Costmod – project scoping and the model identification process Exercise: Developing cost models using Costmod Costmod – EPSRC Funded research project. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Cost Model Development using Costmod
Dave Stockton Taqui Shaik
Contents
Basics of the cost model development process
Basics of Costmod – project scoping and the model identification process
Exercise: Developing cost models using Costmod
Costmod – EPSRC Funded research project. Collaborators included: Airbus, Rolls-Royce & Cognition
Identified Existing Methods
• Data Identification - methods for identifying variables required to generate models
• Data Collection - methods by which the data required to generate models could be collected
• Data Analysis - methods by which the cost estimating relationships could be determined
Data Identification Methods
• Affinity Diagrams• Brain storming• Case Base Reasoning• Consensus building.• Data mining.• Fishbone diagram.• Force field diagrams• Fuzzy logic
• Heuristics.• Histogram.• Normal test plot.• Radar chart.• Relationship diagrams• Repertory grids• Scatter plot.• Simulation
Data Collection Methods• 2-D & 3-D Flow
Diagrams• Activity Sampling• Analytical Estimating• Checklists• Direct observation• Film analysis sheet.• Flow Process Charting• Interview• Methods Time
Measurement
• Operational Experiments
• Outline Process Chart
• Production Studies
• Questionnaires
• Records, Files and Documents
• Time Study
• Video tape recording
• Patents
Data Collection Methods
• Neural networks• Factorial Analysis• Fuzzy logic• Genetic Algorithm• Least Squares• Linear Programming• Multiple Linear
Regression• Multiple Non Linear
Regression
• Pareto Analysis (80-20 rule)
• Queueing Models• Simultaneous
Equations• Stepwise Regression
Analysis• System Pyramid.• Taguchi Methods
Data Sources
COSTMOD Cost Model Development Process
Selection of data sources and data collection methods
ProcessScoping•define processes & products that
need models• define the characteristics of these cost models
Data Collection &
ModelIdentification
Develop the Cost
Estimating Relationships
Project Scoping – 1 of 6
Project Title:
Product / Process Name:
Current development state of the process is best described as:
ConceptDetail DesignPrototypeCommercial
New Product / Process
Modified Product / Process
Project Scoping 2 of 6
The volume of production is best described as:
The type of production process is best described as:
Identify the product / process experts:
Low Volume / One OffMedium VolumeHigh Volume
Project
Job Shop
BatchFlow
Project Scoping 3 of 6Strategic Tactical Operational
Cost ReductionProcess Time ReductionProcess EvaluationProcess ImprovementProcess DevelopmentProduct EvaluationProduct ImprovementProduct DevelopmentStandard Data Generation
Business Objective and Decision Levels applicable to the cost model
Project Scoping 4 of 6
Discipline / Function Experience (Years)
Model Owner:
Model Developer:
Model User:
Model Function:
< 1 Week 1-4 Weeks 1-6 Months >6 Months
Time available to collect data:
Time available to input data:
Project Scoping 5 of 6Model use start date:
Model use end date:
Man/Hours Available to Collect Data:
Man/Hours Available to Input Data:
Man/Hours Available to Develop CER:
Enter required Estimating Accuracy <5%, 5%-10%, 10%-15% ….. >25%
Project Scoping 6 of 6Resource Level of Detail
Product Feature
Direct Material Cost Level 1 Product Level
Indirect Material Cost Level 2 Component Level
Level 3 Component Feature Level
Direct Equipment Cost
Indirect Equipment Cost Process Feature
Level 1 Machine Level
Direct Labour Cost Level 2 Machine Assembly Level
Indirect Labour Cost Level 3 Machine Sub-Assembly Level
Direct Process Time Process Activity
Indirect Process Time Level 1 Process Level
Level 2 Process Operation Level
Level 3 Operational Activity Level
Model identification process
Model identification process
Dependant Resource Paired Comparison
Product/Component Wing Box
Process Wing Box Fabrication
Resource Measure Type Variable Recurring Process Time
Product Feature Level 2 Component Level
No Product Feature Vote Matrix Totals1 x x x x x xx 3 4 5 6 7 8x x x x x x3 4 5 6 7 83 3 3 3 xx x x x 84 4 4 xx x x 85 5 xx x 86 xx 8x8
4
6 Bottom Stringer 5
Dependant Variable and Level of Detail
6
1
5 Top Stringer
2
4 Rear Spar 3
3 Front Spar
7
2 Bottom Skin 8
1 Top Skin
7 Ribs
8 Manholes
Model identification process
1st Predictor Resource Paired Comparison
Product/Component Wing Box
Process Wing Box Fabrication
Resource Measure Type Variable Recurring Process Time
Process Activity Level 2 Process Operation Level
No Process Activity Vote Matrix Totals1 1 x x 1 xx x 4 5 x xx x x 2 xx 4 5 x xx x x x4 5 x 74 4 4x x x5 5x xx7
7
2
1st Predictor Resource and Level of Detail
4
6
1 Routing
7
4 Treatment
6 Machining
5
5
1
Drilling
Inspection
3 Assembly
2
7 SPF
Model identification process
2nd Predictor Resource Paired Comparison
Product/Component Wing Box
Process Wing Box Fabrication
Resource Measure Type Variable Recurring Process Time
Process Feature Level 2 Machine Assembly Level
No Process Feature Vote Matrix Totalsx x x2 3 42 2x xx4
2
2nd Predictor Resource and Level of Detail
3 Treatment Cell
2
1 Machining Cell
4 Assembly Cell
3
1
4
Fabricating Cell
Model identification process
Model identification processEstablishing Attributes of the Features and Activities
Resource Measure Type Variable
Links Attributes
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Product Feature Level 2 Component Level
Exercise: Develop a cost model
Form groups of 3-4 Use the Costmod
process to develop a suitable model for estimating the time required to sharpen a pencil within a medium volume production environment