Cost Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change on Regional

Air Quality Kuo-Jen Liao*, Efthimios Tagaris and Armistead G. RussellSchool of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Georgia Tech

Praveen Amar and Shan HeNESCAUM

Kasemsan ManomaiphiboonKing Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok, Thailand

Jung-Hun WooKonkuk University, Seoul, Korea

Future Temperature Change

(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007)

B1

A1B

A2

Effects of Climate Change

• Increase number and intensity of cyclones

• Change wildfire activities

• Increase sea levels

• Increase frequencies of floods and droughts

• And …. And …. http://www.grcblog.com

http://www.wildlandfire.com

http://www.theage.com.auhttp://www.capcoa.org/images/body.jpg

Impact regional air quality and human healthImpact regional air quality and human health

Effects of Climate Change on AQ: Recent Modeling Studies

Source: Jacob & Winner, Atmospheric Environment, 2009

Pollutants of Interest

Ozone (O3): precursors - NOx, VOCs, etc.

PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic

diameter less than 2.5 micrometers):

precursors- SO2, NOx, NH3, VOCs, etc.

Both pollutants cause adverse health effects: e.g.,

increase # of ER visits and mortality

Some urban areas are still out of attainment for the

both pollutants

Consistent with NAAQS: 4th-highest daily max. 8-hr

ozone and yearly average PM2.5

CentralGreat LakeMid-AtlanticNortheastSoutheastWest

Objectives

Two pollutants: Summertime 4th highest daily max. 8-hr average ozone Average PM2.5

Five cities:

Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and New York

Six U.S. regions:

Southeast, Great_Lake, Central, West, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

Emission reductions and costs required for Emission reductions and costs required for offsetting the climate change penalty on regional offsetting the climate change penalty on regional air quality.air quality.

Figure SPM.520502050

21st-Century Climate (IPCC, 2007)

Global and Regional Climate Models

GISS GCM: grid spacing = 4º x 5º9 levelsoutput every 6 hours

MM5 Domain 1: dx = 108 km67x109 pointsoutput hourly

MM5 Domain 2: dx = 36 km115x169 pointsoutput hourly

(Mickley, et al, GRL, 2004)

(Leung and Gustafson , GRL, 2005)

Regional Air Quality Modeling

j

ijji E

CES

,

2001 & 2050 ClimateEmission Processing

SMOKE

(2001 EI)

Global Climate Model

NASA GISS

(IPCC A1B)

MCIP

Air Quality Model

CMAQ-DDM

Meteorological Model

MM5

Hourly 3D Concentrations

& Sensitivities

- NASA GISS & EPA Models3

DDM:

First-order Taylor Series Approximation

N

iiiSCC

1

)1(0

Summertime 4th MDA8hr Ozone Concentrations and Sensitivities

- Ozone increases in Northeast and NY, Atlanta and LA

- Ozone decreases in Chicago

- Ozone in LA is more sensitivity to VOC than NOx, the regions and other cities are sensitive to NOx

Average PM2.5 Concentrations and Sensitivities

- Reductions in SO2 and NOx are more effective to decrease PM2.5 than VOC

(http://www.epa.gov/ttnecas1/AirControlNET.htm)

Development of Cost Functions for Emission Reductions

• U.S. EPA’s control technology analysis tool, AirControlNET v4.1 (E.H. Pechan & Associates, 2006 )

• AirControlNET uses the U.S. EPA’s 1999 National Emission Inventory (NEI) as a source of emission data

• AirControlNET provides the mass of emissions reduced and associated annual costs (in 1999$) for emission control measures (by species, state, cost per ton, etc.)

Costs of emission reductions in the Southeast and Atlanta

Southeast_NOx

y = 205.91x2.2126

R2 = 0.991

0.0E+00

5.0E+09

1.0E+10

1.5E+10

2.0E+10

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Emission Reduction (Ktons year-1)

Co

st (1

999$

)

Southeast_SO2

y = 15245x1.7802

R2 = 0.988

0.0E+00

1.0E+10

2.0E+10

3.0E+10

4.0E+10

5.0E+10

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Emission Reduction (Ktons year-1)

Co

st (1

999$

)

Southeast_VOC

y = 3E+07e0.004x

R2 = 0.713

0.0E+00

2.0E+10

4.0E+10

6.0E+10

0 500 1000 1500 2000Emission Reduction (Ktons year-1)

Co

st (1

999$

)

Atlanta MSA_NOx

y = 24096x2 - 667053x + 7E+06

R2 = 0.994

0.0E+00

1.0E+09

2.0E+09

3.0E+09

4.0E+09

0 100 200 300Emission reduction (Ktons year-1)

Co

st (1

999$

)

Atlanta MSA_SO2

y = 5E+06e0.0236x

R2 = 0.995

0.0E+00

1.0E+09

2.0E+09

3.0E+09

4.0E+09

0 100 200 300Emission reduction (Ktons year-1)

Co

st (1

999$

)

Atlanta MSA_VOC

y = 17.73x4.0098

R2 = 0.889

0.0E+00

2.0E+09

4.0E+09

6.0E+09

0 50 100 150Emission reduction (Ktons year-1)

Co

st (1

999$

)

Air Pollutant 1

Air Pollutant 2

Air Pollutant n

Control Strategy 1

Control Strategy 2

Control Strategy m

2050 2001Air Pollutant 1

Air Pollutant 2

Air Pollutant n

Least-cost Calculations

2001,5.22050,5.2,5.2,5.22,5.22

2001,32050,3,3,3

PMPMVOCPMVOCNOxPMANOxSOPMSO

OOAVOCOAVOCANOxOANOx

CCSSS

CCSS

Total cost = cost of SO2 reductions + cost of NOx reductions + cost of VOC reductions

minimize

and

solutions should satisfy :

Least Cost for offsetting Climate Effects on Regional Air Quality

For the five cities alone: $4.1 billion per year

For the six regions alone: $6.7 billion per year

Total Emission Reductions and Costs for Offsetting of Climate Impatcs on AQ for the Six

Regions and Five Cities

$9.3 billion per year for the five cities and six regions

Comparison with the Currently Projected Comparison with the Currently Projected Controls – Controls – Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)CAIR)

Control Strategy

Year Domain Annual Cost (billions of 1999 $)

Method Note

CAIR 2015 28 eastern states

and the DC3.6

Cap-and-trade

-

This study 2050U.S. Excluding West

region and LA6.6

Direct emission controls

-

(Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Clean Air Interstate Rule; Office of Air and Radiation, U.S. EPA: 2005)

Comparison with California South Coast Air Quality Management District (AQMD)

Control Strategy

Year DomainAnnual Cost

(billions of 1999 $)Method

AQMD 2014LA and its

surrounding counties 1.7 -

AQMD 2023LA and its

surrounding counties 4.0 -

This study 2050LA and downwind

areas 2.6

Direct emission controls

http://www.aqmd.gov/aqmp/07aqmp/draft/07aqmp.pdf

Conclusions Additional annual costs of $9.3 billion will be required to offset impacts of climate change on air

quality in 2050 for the six regions and five cities in the U.S.

Additional costs for offsetting climate impacts everywhere in the domain could be larger than the estimates and may largely increase the currently estimated reductions and costs required for achieving air quality targets in the future. Current control strategy developments and cost- and-benefit analyses for air quality attainment should include effects of climate change in the future.

Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone.

Acknowledgements

• U.S. EPA STAR grant No. RD83096001, RD82897602 and RD83107601

• Drs. L. Ruby Leung and Loretta Mickley

• Climate change has been predicted to adversely impact regional air quality with resulting health effects. Here we use a regional air quality model and a technology analysis tool to assess the additional emission reductions required and associated costs to offset impacts of climate change on air quality. Analysis is done for six regions and five major cities in the continental United States. Future climate is taken from a global climate model simulation for 2049-2051 using the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and emission inventories are the same as current ones in order to assess impacts of climate change alone on air quality and control expenses. Based on the IPCC A1B emission scenario and current control technologies, least-cost sets of emission reductions for simultaneously offsetting impacts of climate change on regionally-averaged fourth-highest daily maximum 8-hr average ozone and yearly-averaged PM2.5 for the six regions examined are predicted to range from $36 million (1999$) yr-1 in the Southeast to $5.5 billion yr-1 in the Northeast. However, control costs to offset climate-related pollutant increases in urban areas can be greater than the regional costs because of the locally exacerbated ozone levels. An annual cost of $4.1 billion is required for offsetting climate-induced air quality impairment in 2049-2051 in the five cities alone. Overall, an annual cost of $9.3 billion is estimated for offsetting climate impacts on both regionally-averaged and urban air quality. Much of the additional expense is to reduce increased levels of ozone. This study shows that additional emission controls and associated costs for offsetting climate impacts could significantly increase currently estimated control requirements for achieving future air quality targets. The effects of climate change should be considered in control strategy developments as well as cost-and-benefit analyses for air quality standard attainment in the future.