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Regional Climate Information Needs for Impacts and Adaptation Work: Experiences from AsiaG Srinivasan

Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early warning System

WCRP Workshop on Regional Climate: Facilitating the production of climate

information and its use in impact and adaptation work, 14-16 June 2010

RIMES (RIMES) was formally established on 30 April 2009,

with the signing (at Male) of an international cooperation agreement by Cambodia, Comoros, Lao PDR, Maldives, Bangladesh, Philippines and Seychelles

Registered as Regional Organization with UN (14th September 2009)

Twenty-one (21) other countries are in various stages of consideration and approval for signing the cooperation agreement

RIMES aims to provide regional early warning services, and build capacity of its Member States in the early warning of tsunami and hydro-meteorological hazards.

Adaptation – the definition

Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected

climatic stimuli or their effects,

which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

Source: ISDR, 2006

Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected

climatic stimuli or their effects,

which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

Requirements for climate information

The climate information requirements are different at various levels of action

At the national level, requirements vary from ministry to ministry even if they all contribute to a common focus area (e.g. food production under the umbrella of poverty reduction)

Within the national and provincial agencies, information requirements are guided by the duration of planning horizon, and vary from the Organizational/Ministerial level to implementation level.

Communities and individual requirements - differ with livelihoods and circumstances

Global mean warming projected for three time-slabs relative to 1980-99 from the IPCC multi-model ensemble mean

(modified from Wilby et al., 2009)

Time-slabs Mean warming for three SERS emission scenarios

(A2, A1B and B1)

Likely use for community level action after suitable downscaling

2011-2030 0.66

Most suitable for use in development projects aimed at building adaptive capacities as they are of 3-5 years durationAlso useful for long-term planning of provincial government authorities for their 5-10 year plans

2046-2065 1.56As background information for macro-level long-term planning strategy

2080-2099 2.52 Mega projects

Commonly Sought information at sites

Are the heavy rainfall events on the increase?

Is there a shift in the onset of rainy season?

Are dry-spells going to be longer ?

Will the check-dams fill up this season?

Increase the level of the embankments or build new embankments?

Prepare for floods during every rainy season?

Install landside warning system with community participation?

1982-83, strong ENSO

Widespread – severe East Kalimantan

1986-87, strong ENSO

South and east – moderate

All Kalimantan

1991-94, strong ENSO

Widespread – severe Sumatra, Kalimantan, Java

1997-98, strong ENSO

Widespread – severe Sumatra, Borneo generally

2002_03 weak ENSO

South and east-Moderate

2006-07 Weak ENSO

South and East Moderate

2009- weak ENSO

South and east-Moderate

Year (s) and ENSO Drought severity and location

Fires and location

ENSO and extreme events in Indonesia

ENSO has a strong link with rainfall over most locations, therefore information on future behavior of ENSO on different time-scales and its regional manifestation is important for Asia

Indonesia Example – Agriculture Sector

West Java receives high level of rainfall and allows double (sometimes even triple) paddy cropping.

In contrast, East Java’s climate is drier and is more suitable only for crops that have lower water requirement than paddy, such as maize.

During ENSO episodes, both East and West Java are affected adversely, and the impacts manifest via lower than normal rainfall, delayed rainfall onset, or early termination of rains.

Adaptation projects in West Java – when should planning for sustained drier than normal conditions start? Current strategy is better use of seasonal forecasts

Location Rainfall season Climate Problem

Climate info needed

Decision point

Angat multi-

purpose reservoir,

NWRB, Philippines

July Aug peak: If forecast normal

Optimal use of water; avoid

flooding

Seasonal rainfall

characteristics

Release water in May to

accommodate higher inflow

Liquica District, Timor-Leste

Wet season peak: Oct. to Jan.

Planting at the wrong time

lead to heavy crop damages

Onset of rains, likelihood of false start, withdrawal, residual soil

moisture

Beginning and end of crop

season

In many instances Climate Information requirement for adaptation projects at community level are seasonal outlooks

Coastal Vulnerability and Mountainous regions

Future frequency and intensity of tropical cyclonic storms

Information on rates of Sea-level rise

Glacial Lake Outbursts related flooding

Temperature Increase during 2071-2100 for A2 and B2 Scenarios using downscaled results from PRECIS forced with ECHAM

Simulations from only one model available

No validation/evaluation of model performance, hence no idea of uncertainty

Insufficient observational data to undertake this exercise

ENSO changes not captured adequately in global models – hence local rainfall variability estimates uncertain

Ecuador, collaboration with CIIFEN

1990-2010 2010 -41 2041 - 71

Orange – 10-25%; Red – 25 – 50%

Gaps and issues to be addressed

Lack of clear assessment of user requirements

The information requirements of users across different sectors are not understood with any clarity now.

An assessment of the various information requirements across sectors is a must for generation of suitable information as different users would require climate information differing in their timescales as well as their resolutions

Climate information to cater to users’ needs

This level of customization for users is not in place currently.

There is a temporal mismatch between scenarios and the budget and planning considerations of users and decision makers.

Location specificity – this is being taken care of by regional models, but there is still need to improve on reliability (error bounds) at the spatial and temporal scales required.

Interpretation and translation of climate information for users

The translation of climate information into thresholds for incorporation by sectors is lacking – this means understanding decision environments and evolving thresholds that are location and sector specific

Climate change information should be interpreted and translated in terms of sector-specific thresholds that are jointly determined by both the climate community and sectoral users (e.g. agriculture, water management) for it to be useful to policymakers and to those who are involved in adaptation planning and implementation of options.

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0.0000 0.5000 1.0000 1.5000 2.0000 2.5000 3.0000 3.5000 4.0000

Total Hydrograph

Surface Response

Baseflow

Global, Regional Model Product

s

Regional

Products

Probabilistic location specific

hydro-met & geo

informationHazard

Derivatives

Risk Thresholds

ECMWF, NCEP, CMA, UKMO

RIMES/ADPC, Natl. DRR Agencies, Communities

Impact Outlooks

Risk Management tools

Managing climate risks by connecting science, institutions, and society

Need for linked action – regional modeling projects that link with impact assessment/adaptation actions

Seasonal Weather scale < 5 yrs

5 – 10 yrs 20 – 30 yrs

Impacts/Adaptation

Current Climate Variability Future Climate Change

Climate information requirement for adaptation actions

Communities and Individuals

State/Provincial level

District level

National level

Climate Risks, Disaster Risk and threats of climate change

In the context of Southeast Asia, and in most tropical climates for that matter, distinguishing between short-term (DRR/CRM) and long-term (adaptation) is difficult because at present, there is no widely accepted methodology for disassociating the impacts of climate change from “normal” climate variability in the short to medium term.

the projected impacts of climate change on agriculture tend to be amplifications (sometimes reduction) of the substantial challenges that climate variability already imposes (Hansen, et al 2007).

The same observation applies to other natural resource-base livelihoods as well.

Issue of proving “Additionality”

Climate change adaptation planning processes tend to be based on the assumption that it is possible to isolate climate change-induced risk pattern vis-à-vis natural climate variability

Anthropogenic climate change impose additional burden that makes the achievement of development gains more difficult, additional investments/ development aid are necessary.

Regional modeling to contribute to clearly assess and resolve this issue

Conclusions

Time-scales of two to three decades into future are important

Improving reliability and quantifying uncertainties at regional scales

Information requirements are specific – creating institutional linkages with modeling institutions and institutions implementing adaptation projects

Follow an integrated approach for managing risks from current climate variability and future climate change

……thank youthank you