Hump-FDMMEASURING THE EFFECT OF HUMAN PERFORMANCE ON SAFETY, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC INPUTS USING ADVANCED FDM

Flying

Safety work

Pilot Peer Support

Managing Fatigue

Accident Investigator

Background

“Only one in five pilots say they get enough rest between working days”

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«Believe it has no impact onFlight Safety»

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The Civil Aviation Authority's chief Trond-Eirik Strand emphasizes that thestudymdoes not show that safety has been affected.

- We have not observed more unwanted events in this sector in recent years. There is therefore no reason to say that aviation safety is affected. Nevertheless, we will follow up with more initiatives in the future, Strand continues in the press release.

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Research procect – can we movethe fatigue research out of thelabs and into the cockpit?

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Key Performance value (KPV) vs level 1,2 and 3

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Project Team

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Ross Philips (PhD)

Stian Antonsen (PhD)Tor-Erik Evjemo (PhD)

Dr Trond-Eirik Strand

Capt Stein Arne Lien

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Advanced FDMAdvanced FDM

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Pre-project

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• 100 000 flights were analysed (Norwegian 737 NAS/NAN AOCs)

• Jeppesen generated predicted fatigue (KSS) on Top Of Descent (TOD) both pilots from planned rosters using the Boeing Alertness Model (BAM)

• FDM data analysed by Flight Data Services (UK) using existing Key Performance Variables (KPVer) - 72 KPVer extracted for approach and landing

• The following two groups were compared on selected KPVs:

alert KSS = <4 sleepy KSS = >6

• The ambition is to use self assessed fatigue on TOD using EFB / App

• Presented at a Seminar in Oslo on 11 September 2018 with 30+ participants from theindustry

Karolinska Sleepiness Scale – KSS

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ALERT

SLEEPY

The population of flightsAll flights in the data material were analysed

Long flights, short flights, multiple legs, North norway, short runways, summer conditions, winter conditions, trainingflights, visualapproaches etc

In the main project the data will be washed to make the analysis more valid

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KSS TOD vs. flight leg

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0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

1 2 3 4 5 6

Alert Normal Sleepy

Leg

KSS TOD vs. flight duration

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11

79

4

34

77

76

4

55

9

27

1

27

1

13

0 0

38

74

0

26

65

4

78

66

27

20

11

00

46

0

13

7

19

0

14

39 30

99

12

70

14

90

55

7

30

0

17

4

82

1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Alert Normal Sleepy

Flight duration (h)

No. flights

KSS TOD vs. night / day

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0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000

Alert

Normal

Sleepy

Night Day

No. flights

KSS TOD vs. sommer / vinter

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0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000

Alert

Normal

Sleepy

Summer Winter

No. flights

KSS TOD vs. arrival airport

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0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

ARN BGO CPH GOT LGW LLA OSL SVG TOS TRD

Alert Normal Sleepy

Results

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Alert mean = 1,81Sleepy mean = ,38ES = ,42p << ,001

Landing performance

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Alert mean = 1,97Sleepy mean = ,47ES = ,42p << ,001

Landing performance

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Alert mean = 297Sleepy mean = 315ES = ,21p << ,001

Landing performance

Hard landings

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Alert mean = 1,43Sleepy mean = 1,45ES = ,18p << ,001

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AP disengage altitude during approach

Alert mean = 990Sleepy mean = 905ES = ,11p << ,001

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AP engage altitude during departure

Speed at Flap extension – Flap 1

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Speed at Flap extension – flap 30

Fuel quantity at shutdown

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Fuel burn taxi in

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Taxi speed

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ConclusionsThere are differences in performance that may be caused by fatigue◦ Approach

◦ Landing

◦ Autopilot use

◦ Taxi speed

◦ Flap extension speed

◦ Fuel use

It might have impact on safety performance, productivity and environment

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Next stepsProject plan and application sent 10 October 2018

Total budget 10,2 million kroner / 1,1 mill Euro

Project start Q2-2019

Project end Q4-2022

Partners

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Steering CommitteeRoss Owen Phillips (TØI), Recognized expert in fatigue risk management

Stein Arne Lien (AIBN), Instigator of the initial establishment project, experienced pilot, and until recently Fatigue Risk Manager at Norwegian

Trond-Eirik Strand (CAA),Human Factors Lead and Chief Medical officer at CAA-N

Stian Antonsen (SINTEF) is an expert on organizational safety and safety culture

Tor Erik Evjemo (SINTEF) expertise in pilot performance and flight safety

Aleksander Doder (SAS DNS), Manager Flight Data

Torkil Hungnes (Norwegian Air Shuttle AS), Fatigue Risk Manager

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Thank you!