Corn, Cattle, ConfusionTim Petry – Livestock Economistwww.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomicsOctober 16, 2013

Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City

corn,cattle,confusion-Oct2013.pptx

Corn Cattle Confusion

2012NOV FC vs DEC CORN

2013NOV FC vs DEC CORN

Omaha Corn PricesWeekly

JAN APR JUL OCT0123456789

2013

2012

2011

Avg. 2006-010

Avg. 2002-06

$ per bu

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA-AMS

G-P-02

CORN: Sun Prairie Grain - Minot

Government ShutdownOct. 1-16, 2013

Government Shutdown

• Cash market not reported by USDA-AMS• CME Feeder Cattle Index (avg. of AMS prices)

– used to settle feeder cattle futures– used to settle LRP contracts– the last reported Index was record high $159.89 on Sep.

30• LRP insurance (USDA-RMA) not available and

existing contracts not settled• No Oct. COF (USDA-NASS) report (rescheduled Oct.

31)

Calf and Feeder Cattle Prices• Under 600 lb. - very good demand supported by winter wheat grazing

10/17/13 – Valentine, NE243 head, fancy, 493 lb. @ $220.25100 head, fancy, 553 lb. @ $198.75

• 600 – 700 lb. - weaker demand – especially unweaned

• Over 700 lb. - very good demand supported by record corn crop, farmer feeder, and excess feedlot capacity

10/17/13 – Green City, MO318 head, 800-850 lb. @ $170.76 avg.

• Heifers - steep season discounts with light receipts but premiums for replacement quality

Nebraska- Replacement Quality500-550 @ $199.49700-750 @ $175.50

MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES550-600 Pounds, N.D., Weekly

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

JAN APR JUL OCT

Projected

2013

2012

2011

2007-2011 AVG

MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES750-800 Pounds, N.D., Weekly

8090

100110120130140150160170

JAN APR JUL OCT

Fut 2014

Fut 2013

Projected

2013

2012

2011

2007-2011 AVG2

CME Feeder Cattle Index

859095

100105110115120125130135140145150155160

9/1/

0511

/1/0

51/

1/06

3/1/

065/

1/06

7/1/

069/

1/06

11/1

/06

1/1/

073/

1/07

5/1/

077/

1/07

9/1/

0711

/1/0

71/

1/08

3/1/

085/

1/08

7/1/

089/

1/08

11/1

/08

1/1/

093/

1/09

5/1/

097/

1/09

9/1/

0911

/1/0

91/

1/10

3/1/

105/

1/10

7/1/

109/

1/10

11/1

/10

1/1/

113/

1/11

5/1/

117/

1/11

9/1/

1111

/1/1

11/

1/12

3/1/

125/

1/12

7/1/

129/

1/12

11/1

/12

1/1/

133/

1/13

5/1/

137/

1/13

9/1/

13

16% 21% 19%22% 10%

?+17%

19%

0%

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Profit from Backgrounding $174 Calves550 lb. to 750 lb.ADG = 2.77 lbs.

72 Days on Feed (Example: Oct. 30 – Jan. 11)$/Head

Price750 lb. Steer Corn ($/bu.)($/cwt) 3.50 3.70 3.90 4.10 4.30 4.50150 24 21 17 13 9 5155 60 56 53 49 45 41160 96 92 89 85 81 77165 132 128 125 121 117 113170 168 164 161 157 153 149

Harvest usually bringsout the bears

Questions?