Corn, Cattle and ConfusionCorn, Cattle and ConfusionTim Petry – Livestock Economistwww.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomicsNovember 6, 2012

Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City

Corn-Cattle-Confusion.ppt

NOV FC vs DEC CORN

All Feeder Livestock AffectedAll Feeder Livestock Affected

Livestock Marketing Information Center; Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES500-600 Pounds, Weekly

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2006-10

2011

2012

C-P-5411/05/12

MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES700-800 Pounds, Weekly

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2006-10

2011

2012

C-P-4911/05/12

H-P-0111/05/12

FEEDER PIG PRICES40 Pounds, Weekly

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

JAN

APRJU

LOCT

$ Per Head

Avg.2006-10

2011

2012

FEEDER LAMB PRICES3-Market Average; CO, TX & SD; Weekly

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2006-10

2011

2012

S-P-0610/30/12

Western SD – Black HillsWestern SD – Black Hills

Eastern SD – Yellow HillsEastern SD – Yellow Hills

BEEF COW SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

JAN

APRJU

LOCT

Thou. Head

Avg.2006-10

2011

2012C-S-34

11/02/12

DAIRY COW INVENTORYUS Total, Monthly

9070

9120

9170

9220

9270

9320

JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV

Thou Head

Avg.2006-010

2011

2012

10/19/12Livestock Marketing Information Center, Data Source: USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information CenterData Source: USDA/NASS

HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS

July 1, U.S.

3

4

5

6

7

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Mil. Head

C-N-3707/20/12

JULY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIESResidual, Outside Feedlots, U.S.

30

35

40

45

50

55

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Mil. Head

C-N-3207/20/12

-3.2%

BROILER EGGS SETWeekly

175

180

185

190

195

200

205

210

215

220

JAN

APRJU

LOCT

Mil. Eggs

Avg.2006-10

2011

2012P-S-10

11/01/12

Livestock Marketing Information Center, Data Source: USDA-NASS

HOG SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

JAN

APRJU

LOCT

Thou. Head

Avg.2006-10

2011

2012

H-S-0511/02/12

BARROW AND GILT PRICESIowa - So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

JAN

APRJU

LOCT

$ Per Cwt.

Avg.2006-10

2011

2012

2013Futures

H-P-0911/05/12

BROILER PRICES12-City Composite, Weekly

68

73

78

83

88

93

98

JAN

APRJU

LOCT

Cents Per Pound

Avg.2006-10

2011

2012

P-P-0111/05/12

CLASS III MILK PRICESFMMO, Monthly

12.00

13.00

14.00

15.00

16.00

17.00

18.00

19.00

20.00

21.00

22.00

23.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

$ Per Pound

Avg.2006-10

2011

2012

11/02/12

Livestock Marketing Information Center, Data Source: USDA-AMS, Dairy Market News

MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES550-600 Pounds, N.D., Weekly

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

JAN APR JUL OCT

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES750-800 Pounds, N.D., Weekly

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

JAN APR JUL OCT

200720082009201020112012Fut 2012Fut 2013

SF_LS796Sioux Falls, SD Nov 2, 2012 USDA-ND Dept of Ag Market News

North Dakota Weekly Auction Summary - For the week ending Nov 3, 2012 Receipts: 12,564 Last Week 9,984 Last Year 12,056 Combined results of 3 auctions this week: Kist, Napoleon, and Stockmen’s. Compared to last weeks: Feeder steers 1.00 to 3.00 lower, except 600-650 lbs 4.00 to 5.00 lower. Feeder heifers under 600 lbs mostly steady, over 600 lbs 2.00 to 4.00 lower. Demand moderate to good this week. The feeder market came under pressure as CME Live Cattle contractshit a wall and stopped their advance with Dec closing the week at 125.42. Cash fed cattle traded steady to 1.00 lower at 126.00-127.00, leaving the cash market with a positive basis over the futures price.

Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price 6 320 320 176.00 176.00 97 352-393 364 184.00-207.00 195.03 151 404-446 426 173.00-195.00 184.30 477 456-498 479 163.50-177.50 168.67 94 451-483 458 175.00-185.00 181.39 Value Added 887 502-549 528 159.00-171.00 164.97 23 533 533 151.00 151.00 Fleshy 54 513 513 172.50 172.50 Value Added 1165 551-597 576 151.75-162.75 157.85 148 553-566 555 163.50-168.75 167.61 Value Added 885 601-649 620 147.50-157.25 153.32 Calves 50 601 601 163.00 163.00 Fancy 39 610 610 159.00 159.00 Value Added 552 650-698 671 144.50-155.25 150.93 Calves 82 705-728 712 146.00-149.00 148.11 165 704-740 723 145.50-152.00 148.57 Calves 82 750-791 766 137.00-146.50 144.21 20 772-794 783 140.50-143.00 141.36 Calves 14 833 833 145.25 145.25 Calves 178 853-897 877 134.50-145.50 143.19 26 891 891 128.25 128.25 Fleshy 30 903 903 136.50 136.50 48 963-993 980 127.75-134.50 129.58 59 961 961 138.25 138.25 Fancy

ww

w.a

g.nd

su.e

du/c

attl

edoc

s

10/15/12 550 lb steer, $1.63/lb ($896/hd)ADG 1.75 2.50 3.25

Gain 100 200 300 100 200 300 100 200 300

DOF 57 114 171 40 80 120 30 61 92

Vet 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Yard 11.4 22.8 34.2 8 16 24 6.2 12.3 18.5

Feed 81 161 263 65 136 212 55 120 188

Death 9.5 10.0 10.6 9.5 9.9 10.3 9.4 9.8 10.1

Int 8.91 18.69 29.64 6.18 12.88 20.15 4.72 9.80 15.27

LRP 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Misc 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

COG 1.39 1.20 1.22 1.18 1.02 .99 1.05 .91 .87

BE 1.59 1.52 1.49 1.56 1.47 1.40 1.54 1.43 1.36

date 12/11 2/6 4/4 11/24 1/3 2/12 11/4 12/15 1/15

Weight 650 750 850 650 750 850 650 750 850

Price 1.53 1.51 1.47 1.52 1.50 1.45 1.52 1.49 1.44

$/hd 985 1121 1237 978 1114 1220 978 1106 1212

Net -42 -7 -14 -27 +23 +39 -13 +39 +65

End of Rainbow for the Next Several Years

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