copyright 2009 idc. reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. all rights reserved. david senf,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Copyright 2009 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
David Senf, Director Infrastructure Solutions Groupidc.comNovember 24, 2009
Changing Face of Virtualization
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 2
GDPGDP ProfitsProfits
Un-Un-employmentemployment
-2.4% -33.8%
8.4%
2009
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 3
Yet another forecast
Source: IDC Market Models
2009 Growth Rates by Category
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
PCs Servers Storage Networking OtherHardware
Services Software Telecom
2009 2010
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 4
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 5
IT conundrum – tradeoffs inevitable
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 6
The Big Switch – Nicholas Carr
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 7
The Big Switch – Nicholas Carr
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 8
The Big Switch – Nicholas Carr
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 9
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 10
“capacity=demand”
The Big Switch – Nicholas Carr
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 11
So where are we now?
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 12
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 13
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 14
Utilization & Maintain
Real Estate
++++ Power & Cooling
Admin
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 15
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
20052006200720082009201020112012
$M
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Power and Cooling Avoidance % Saving
Cost avoidance through virtualization
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 16
OpexCapex
Virtualization by the numbers Top Savings
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Server HW Simplifiedmgmt
Power andcooling
Staff time Real estate Softwarelicensingsavings
Staffreduction
25% cost reductionover 12 months
across capex and opex
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 17
Business case development
Half of firms create formal business case to justify virtualization investments. As for the rest....
“I figured I had saved about $1.5M...[in] hardware costs... I didn’t go into a lot of the intangibles...”
-Pharmaceutical
“If I go to my CFO, he wants to see a couple of pieces of data, not a hundred.”
- Manufacturing
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 18
Server build decisions
Suggest virtual servers57%
Hardwarecentric11%
N=400
Virtualdefault
32%
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 19
How did we get here?
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 20
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Server capability and density soars – virtualization gets a leg up
Annual Cores Shipped
Annual CPUs Shipped
1 ap
p/s
erve
r
1 ap
p/b
lad
e
1 ap
p/C
PU
1 ap
p/c
ore
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 21
Sprawling Server InfrastructureOperational Costs Rise Dramatically
WW Spending on Servers, Power and Cooling, and Management/Administration
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 22
New Economic Model for the Datacenter Shifts to Automation Tools are a Requirement
WW Spending on Servers, Power and Cooling, and Management/Administration
Virtualization Management Gap
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 23
Zero sum game?“If we had not virtualized the number of servers would be significantly greater...Our carbon footprint would be greater…
We are spending less as a whole.”- Financial Services
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 24
New Economic Model for the Datacenter Shifts to Automation Tools are a Requirement
WW Spending on Servers, Power and Cooling, and Management/Administration
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 25
Considerations
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 26
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 27
Few VMs Profile
• IT-centric• Virtualize for hardware
savings• Low ITIL use• Resource mgmt• Lack of visibility• Manual processes• Physical & virtual tools / mgmt
separate• Lower VM / server rate
(e.g., 5/server)
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 28
Many VMs Profile
• Business-centric• Virtualize for competitive
advantage• High ITIL use• DR/HA• Resource monitoring /
measurement• Automate processes • Physical & virtual tools / mgmt
integrated• Higher VM / server rate
(e.g., 25/server)
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 29
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 30
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 31
Virtual machine adoption hurdles – past
TimeInst.Resistance
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 32
Cost/Budget
Tools
Virtual machine adoption hurdles – present
ExpertiseAvailabilityCapacity
Planning
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 33
5 things on order
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 34
1
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 35
From noun to verb
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 36
The Next Virtualization Milestones
Virtualization 1.0 Encapsulation Resource sharing Dynamic consolidation
Virtualization 3.0 Automation Service oriented Policy based “Cloud” Computing Variable costs
CAPEX
Operatio
nal Cost R
eduction
Virtualization 2.5 Unplanned HA/DR/back-up Workload balancing Virtual Clients
Virtualization 2.0 Mobility Planned downtime Virtual Clients
2013
Production Consolidation
24%
Availability39%
Virtual Clients15%
SW Development & Test 6%
Utility Computing16%
2006
Production Consolidation
49%
Utility Computing1%
Availability
11%
SW Development & Test
36%
Virtual Clients3%
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 37
Virtualization has lots of head room
Virtual PhysicalServer Type
Low HighBusiness Critical
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
App Dev Web App ITInfrastructure
DB/DW Email / msgng ERP/CRM/
Virtualized
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 38
2
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 39
The good, the bad and the ugly
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 40
Server Virtualization Impact:
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
3.0 3.3 4.35.4
6.3
7.0
7.6
8.0 VM Densities Nearly Triple
Cross Over
5%Shipments
20%Shipments
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 41
Virtualization Machine MovementMobility is on the Rise
VM Movement FrequencyVM Mobility Management • 80% report moving virtual machines across physical hardware
• 60% report using automation tools
• This highlights the evolution of virtualization and the desire to exploit increased functionality
• Illustrates movement towards more dynamic & flexible IT environment
Don’t Move VMs
Move VMsManually
Move VMsUsing Policy Tools
Move VMsManually &Using Tools
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 42
VM tools features we desire
17
21
22
22
26
26
27
32
42
44
47
56
Analysis/Troubleshooting
Deployment/Redeployment
Optimization
Capacity Planning
High Availability/Failover
Health Monitoring
Power Management
Load Balancing
Disaster Recovery
Security
Maintenance
Systems Backup
N=297: QC01MR. Which of the following systems management features or tools are you currently using to support your virtual servers? Please select all that apply.
1st wave
2nd wave
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 43
3
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 44
Action not reaction
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 45
N=255
Which of the following describes your organization’s business continuity planning status?
DR plan? What DR plan?
30%
25%12%
33%
We have a plan that is regularly tested
We have a plan,but it is not
regularly tested
Have no plan
Have anad hoc
plan
I think one area specifically that [virtualization] has changed is our ability to provide a better level of service [for] our DR and BCP. - Financial Services
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 46
Dial it up – ITIL?
12%in
2006
Process automation evolves on a scale from anti-inflammatory early on, to steroid down the road
23%in
2008
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 47
4
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 48
Resistance is futile
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 49
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Total PCs installed in Canada from 1985 - 2009
50% of Canadian Firms Use & Plan to Use
Desktop Virtualization
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 50
PC Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)Opex makes up the bulk of spending
Q: What is the average breakdown of your PC expenditure?
Source IDC Virtualization Forum
• Deploy, Support, Train
• Operations
• Administration
• Hardware &Software
60%10%
7%
23%
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 51
5
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 52
Cloud?
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 53
Words Canadians use to describe cloud.....
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 54
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 55
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04/10/23© 2009 IDC 56
Please contact me at:
David SenfDirector, Infrastructure [email protected]
http://twitter.com/Senformation
Questions or comments