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CoP 101: An Informal Newcomers’ Guide

to the UNFCCC Climate Change Meeting Process

Norine Kennedy Doha CoP 18, CMP 8Brian Flannery December 4, 2012Nick Campbell

UN FCCC: COP 18/CMP 8

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Background and History:

UNFCCC & COP Process

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Role of Business

Business is a “recognized constituency” or “major group”Individuals register as members of an accredited business organization

• Who is “Business and Industry”?Wide range of groups: members, organizations, objectives

We are known as the “Business and Industry NGOs” or BINGOSWe are observing NOT negotiatingOrganizations speak only for their membersOccasionally business will develop consensus statements

• Demeanor, protocols for interactions: – Realize that delegations’ positions formed in capitols; – Expect to interact with Delegates, NGOs, IGOs, Press of all kinds

+Statements, Interventions, submissions +Corridor conversation and sidebars

• Undertake Informal processes to prepare business interventions and consensus statements

• All Constituencies have a “focal point” to interface with the Secretariat and the process: For Business, ICC is the focal point, through Andrea Bacher

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Background: UNFCCC

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change:

– One of several agreements signed at Rio 1992

– Establishes international framework to address climate change

– Formal and informal links/relations to many other treaties, processes

• Importance to government, business, labor, farmers, NGOs …:

– Process affects not just environment ... but also economy, trade, investment, employment, energy, agriculture, land use, technology, ...

– Decisions influence and set precedents in other settings, treaties

– Agreements require national/regional implementation: legislation, regulation, communications (e.g. National reports, EU-ETS,...)

– Agreements establish Kyoto Mechanisms: Emissions Trading, CDM, JI

– Implementation requires significant finance, wealth transfer

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• IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1988)– Scientific, technical & socio-economic assessments– Methodologies, e.g. National emissions inventories, Land use change– Special Reports: CCS, Aviation, Renewable Energy, …

• GEF: Global Environment Facility (1991)- Financial mechanism for several environmental conventions

UNFCCC: Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992)– Political negotiations, treaty implementation

Major Climate Change Institutions

Conference of Parties: supreme body of UNFCCC

United Nations

GEFUNFCCC

Assessment FinanceConvention

IPCC

UNEP WMO

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UNFCCC & KP – Permanent Structure

All (ratifying) Parties participate in COP, CMP, SBSTA, SBI. Each elects a Bureau with representatives from the 5 UN regional groups + AOSIS to facilitate work

Appointees from developed and developing Parties oversee committees and boards

Conference of Parties (COP)

Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice

(SBSTA)

Subsidiary Body for Implementation

(SBI)

Secretariat

Kyoto Protocol (CMP)

JI SC CDM EB Compliance

Secretariat 2012-13

Budget: ~ 30 M$/yrStaff: ~150 staff

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Ongoing Evolving Work Plan & Structure The UNFCCC structure and program are not static – ongoing activity

Permanent, standing committeesSBSTA: Technology & Technology Transfer, Education and Outreach, Observation,

CCS, New Gases, LULUCF, REDD, Nairobi Work Program on Adaptation, Interfaces to: IPCC…

SBI: Reporting & Review, Adequacy of Commitments, Capacity Building,

Financial Mechanisms, Budgets, Meetings, Relations with observer constituencies…

Ad hoc negotiating committeesAWG-KP (Kyoto Protocol)AWG-LCA (Long-term Co-operative Action)ADP (Durban Platform 2020 Agreement)

New InstitutionsTechnology Mechanism (TEC, CTC&N), Green Climate Fund, Adaptation....

Durban called for many actions and decisions to be taken at (or before) COP 18, CMP 8

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Bali Negotiations (2007 …)

Major Drivers– Expiration of 1st Kyoto commitment period in 2012– Desire to enunciate long-term global goal to avoid “dangerous” impacts– Recognition of need to engage all major economies– Continuation of CDM and carbon markets– Desire to mainstream adaptation– Collective wish to mobilize efforts to protect forests

Agreement posed far greater challenges than Kyoto (expectations/aspirations in lead up discussions):

– Developed nations to cut emissions 25-40% below 1990 by 2020– Significant commitments for developing countries– Scale of funding: ~100s B$/yr each for adaptation and mitigation

Expectations raised for significant emissions reductions and aid

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Two Track Negotiations & Bali Action Plan (2007)

UNFCCC (COP)

Kyoto Protocol (CMP)

Long-term Cooperative Action(under UNFCCC by all Parties)

New Targets Annex 1(2013-20xx)

Bali Negotiations: Post 2012 Framework

Original deadline (COP 15, 2009) missedProcess ongoing to complete or transform negotiations

AWG-KP AWG-LCA

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Recent History: Bali to Doha

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Bali to Cancun to Durban & 2012• Copenhagen (2009)

– Failure to complete Bali mandate – Copenhagen Accord agreed in a political process outside COP– Rancor and concern for integrity and future of international process

• Cancun (2010)– Mexican Presidency made strong effort to re-establish formal process– Agreements materially advanced implementation of Copenhagen Accord– Little progress on other aspects of Bali Mandate (many of major interest to

developing nations)

• Durban (2011)– Further implementation and “operationalization” of Copenhagen Accord– Process and mandate to sunset AWG-KP, AWG-LCA at COP 18, CMP 8– Creates Durban Platform to negotiate a comprehensive “2020” agreement

• Launch and startup of new institutions – Green Climate Fund– Technology Mechanism: TEC, CTC&N– …

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Durban Outcomes & Next steps• AWG-KP:

– Authorizes 2nd KP period 2013 – xxxx (TBD: 2017 or 2020)– Aim to agree Amendment(s), including targets, to be adopted at CMP 8– If so, AWG-KP concludes

• AWG-LCA:– Agree to incorporate (in different ways) emissions commitments by developed

and developed nations and procedures for reports and reviews– Progress “operationalizing” REDD+, Adaption, Finance and Technology– If essential work complete, AWG-LCA concludes– Disagreement on remaining work (Bali, Copenhagen) and handoff to ADP

• Establishes a new Ad Hoc Working Group (ADP)– To develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal

force under the Convention applicable to all parties– Process starts 2012, finishes by 2015, effective from 2020

Ambitious work program; outcomes “hostage” to balanced progress in all three, and agreement on what must be complete

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Durban: Unresolved Political Issues

• Fate of Kyoto Protocol (Absent: Canada, Japan, Russia, USA)– Long term: in parallel with, or a transition to ADP outcome– Co-functioning of KP and new new “LCA/ADP” processes (NAMAs, Offsets…)

• Ambition of national emissions pledges– Inadequacy of pledges to achieve 2 °C goal– Date for global emissions to peak; target level in 2050

• Sources and uses of funds (mobilize 100 B$/yr by 2020)– Matching funds to “supported” NAMAs– Funding after completion of Fast Start Finance (2012)

• IPR (off the agenda in Cancun now back on)

• Legal form and timing of ultimate long-term agreement

Growing gap between statements of political aspirations and actual policies and trends

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Challenges to Negotiators

• Major differences on key political issues– Multiple, linked, well established deadlocks– Involving different subsets of nations (not just developed vs developing, and

EU vs non-EU)

• Complex Process– Standing Bodies and AWGs operate under agreed legal mandates– Multiple overlapping agenda items and cross-cutting issues– Agreed limits on simultaneous meetings– Too little time for the complexity of the agenda– Opportunities to use process to delay unfavorable outcomes– Need for balanced progress to conclude all important items as a “package” – Requirement for decisions by consensus

• Ongoing financial crisis

Major role of Presidency (past and present) shaping agenda, pursuing informal negotiations that address overlaps, developing consensus

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Other Contentious or Polarizing Issues

• Intellectual Property Rights

• Equitable Access to Sustainable Development

• Global emissions: date to peak; level in 2050

• Impact of Response Measures (Forum, or agenda)

• International Review process for developing nations’ reports

• New Market mechanisms, sectoral approaches

• Mitigation: target or pledge, especially in LCA/ADP

• Matching funds to supported NAMAs

• Loss and Damage and Historical Responsibility

• Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV)

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Challenge to Agreement and Implementation

A business perspective… diverse, interlocked impacts with multiple winners and losers: within sectors, between sectors, between nations•Responding appropriately to the risks and impacts of climate change•Differentiated national obligations and policies•Policies to preserve competitiveness•Trade, border adjustments•Offsets: eligibility and scale•Competitiveness implications of wealth transfers •Treatment of state-run vs private companies•Integrity and efficiency of MRV and compliance procedures•Calls to relax Intellectual Property Rights•Stakeholder roles in advisory processes to new institutions

Others may agree with this list or highlight different matters Because these are important to business, they are relevant

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Process at a Conference of the Parties (COP 18, CMP 8)

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Doha COP 18, CMP 8: 7 Meetings not 1

• Ongoing mandated business of: – Conference of Parties: COP– Conference Meeting as Parties to the Kyoto Protocol: CMP– Subsidiary Bodies: SBSTA, SBI– Negotiating Groups: AWG-KP, AWG-LCA, ADP

• Each has their own legal mandate and procedures– Significant overlap and linkage in agenda– Parties insist on balanced progress: all cross finish line together

• External focus will be on progress of three-track negotiation – Conclude and handoff AWG-KP, AWG-LCA issues– Progress of ADP

• Other important matters– Finance– Progress startup of new institutions– Definition of work programs

Major role of Presidency (past and present) shaping agenda, pursuing informal negotiations that address overlaps, developing consensus

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“Typical 2 week timeline”

Week 1 Week 2

Contact GroupsDevelop Proposed Text

Informal GroupsNegotiations

Informals Agree text or Not

AWGs/SBsIf agreed

Friends of ChairIf not

Final PlenaryApprove decisions

Opening PlenariesApprove agenda, Opening Statements

SBs and AWGsAgenda and statements

High Level Session

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“Typical” Progress of an Agenda Item

Challenge of linked negotiations in separate bodies, agenda items taken hostage, need for balanced package of outcomes

• In appropriate opening plenary (COP, CMP, SBs, AWGs)– Seek approval of agenda (often contentious)

– Views expressed by Groups of Parties

• Items assigned to existing or new Contact Groups ( ~70 in all)– Contact groups usually open to observers (unless objection)

• Controversial items move to Informals– Often closed to observers

• Enormous logistical challenge to schedule meeting space & time

• Proposed agreed text submitted to plenary for discussion and approval at next level, e.g. recommended COP/CMP decisions– Including at times options for consideration

– Otherwise, deferred or left to ministers

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Participants• Parties and Groups of Parties (Pink Badges)

– Countries (some delegations include ENGOs and Business), EU– Groups: G77 (actually 132) & China, EU, JUSCANZ, Umbrella Group, African

Group, AOSIS (SIDS), LDCs, Environmental Integrity Group

• Secretariat (Blue Badges)– Including Consultants

• Intergovernmental Organizations (also Blue Badges)IEA, OECD, OPEC, IPCC, ICAO, IMO, WMO, ...

• Observer Organizations (Yellow Badges)– ENGOs, BINGOS, RINGOS, Local Authorities, Indigenous Peoples, TUNGOs,

YOUNGOs, Farmers, Gender

• Press (Orange Badges)

• Security (Uniforms) UN Zone inside complex

Essential to consider logistics of managing tens of thousands of participants, many without prior experience

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Negotiating groups

• G-77 & China• AOSIS• LDCs• EU• Umbrella Group• Environmental Integrity Group• UN regional groups• … Many, many more since Cancun

Provided an opportunity to voice group views in plenaries, and a role in contact groups on issues of concern

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Documents

Types of Documents

• UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol, Bali Action Plan, most recent negotiating text: Keep copies with you

• Daily Programme and CC TV: Keep checking the monitors

• Official – Labels: FCCC/KP/CMP/2006/1– COP, CMP, KP, SBSTA, SBI, AWG-KP, AWG-LCA– Misc, Inf. – Updates and revisions : .Rev, .Cor, .Add 1

• At the session: (Final vs draft decisions)non papers, CRP, L Documents... [text in brackets]

• Online & Real-time: UNFCCC App and Site, CC TV

• Unofficial: ENB (also online), ECO, TWN, Flyers, sidebars, Group stands (Hall 4)

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Keeping Current During the COP/CMP

• Dynamic and external scrutiny shifts completely in 2nd week with arrival of High Level Ministers

• Formal and informal briefing sessions for Parties and briefings for observers and press by– Officers of negotiating and standing bodies, Presidency, Secretariat

– Example: AWG-LCA Stock Taking for Parties, open to observers

• Presidency-run process for cross-cutting and political dialogue outside the formal agenda (South Africa: Indaba process)

Difficult to understand progress during the week, ministers and press may have very different expectations than negotiators

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Making decisions

• COP rules of procedure never formally adopted

> applied on a provisional basis

• Voting rule for substantive issues (Rule 42) is bracketed in the rules of procedure

> COP decisions require consensus

• Consensus means absence of formal objection

• Cancun: Mexican president ruled that, within the UNFCCC process, practice has been established that a single country can’t block consensus

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After Doha…

• Process for 2nd KP period to take effect (and what is next)– Or ongoing negotiation of KP

• LCA (?) to continue, or sunset with handoff of some issues

• Anticipate lengthy follow-on ADP negotiations (2015?)– Continued effort for an ultimate (legally binding?) agreement

– Continuing discussion of procedures and outcomes:

+Ambition and Numbers for Finance and Mitigation …

+Offsets, especially forest and land use

+New institutions for finance, technology, adaptation

+Measurement, reporting and verification (MRV)

+Actions in developing nations, new mechanisms

• Ongoing roles for multiple bilateral, multilateral dialogs: Major Economies Forum, engagement of IEA, World Bank, …

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Thank You & Discussion