coordinated by: carboocean marine carbon sources and sink assessment integrated project contract no....
TRANSCRIPT
Coordinated by:
CARBOOCEANMarine carbon sources and sink assessment
Integrated Project Contract No. 511176 (GOCE) Global Change and Ecosystems
Overview:
Where we stand
What we need to do here
What the challenges are
Where we stand
Objectives of CARBOOCEAN IPGuiding the management ofsustainable development
CO2
emmisionsObjective 5:Prediction, future assessment
Initial conditions
Objective 1: Short-term assessment
System dynamics Boundary conditions
Objective 3:Assessment of
Regional EuropeanContribution
Objective 2:Long term
assessment
Objective 4:Assessment of
feedbacks
Over-arching activity: Prediction
Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment
Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment
Fin
al Wo
rksho
p
Kick-O
ff Meetin
g
MonthPhase:
0 19 37 55 60Understanding Nowcast and
Prediction Synopsis and Sustainment
Description
Core Theme 1: NAtl and Southern Ocean CO2 air-sea exchange
Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial C inventory changes
Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales
Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks
Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks
Over-arching activity: Prediction
Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment
Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment
Fin
al Wo
rksho
p
Kick-O
ff Meetin
g
MonthPhase:
0 19 37 55 60Understanding Nowcast and
Prediction Synopsis and Sustainment
Description
Core Theme 1: NAtl and Southern Ocean CO2 air-sea exchange
Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial C inventory changes
Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales
Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks
Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks
now
Over-arching activity: Prediction
Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment
Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment
Fin
al Wo
rksho
p
Kick-O
ff Meetin
g
MonthPhase:
0 19 37 55 60Understanding Nowcast and
Prediction Synopsis and Sustainment
Description
Core Theme 1: NAtl and Southern Ocean CO2 air-sea exchange
Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial C inventory changes
Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales
Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks
Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks
now
2007 meeting
18 month plan
Major observing systems are in place:
Surface pCO2 data coverage:
…
Water column inventory of anthropogenic carbon for year 1994 (Sabine et al., 2004, Science)
Change in CO2 partial pressure in North Atlantic (Omar and Olsen, 2006, Geophysical Research Letters)
atmosphere
surface ocean
New understanding coming in:
What we need to do here
What we need to do here:
-Listen to each other
-Find out what is newly emerging
-Get new visions and take them home
What we need to do here:
Listen to each other
Find out what is newly emerging
Get new visions and take them home
“bottom up” - the juicy stuff -
See what needs to be finished this year and prepare report
Concretely formulate what should be done in months 25-42
”top down” - the base frame -
What we need to do here:
Listen to each other
Find out what is newly emerging
Get new visions and take them home
“bottom up” - the juicy stuff -
See what needs to be finished this year and prepare report
Concretely formulate what should be done in months 25-42
”top down” - the base frame -
Agenda overview:
Monday 4 Dec Overview, science highlights, discussions
Tuesday 5 Dec Science highlights, discussions
Wednesday 6 Dec Science planning and concrete detailing
Thursday 7 Dec Training, panels, science poster session
Friday 8 Dec Guest lecture, wrap up
What the challenges are
www.spiegel.de
www.spiegel.de
What the challenges are:
-Quantify uncertainties in ocean CO2 uptake
-Reduce these uncertainties
-N.Atl. Sink: decadal event vs. monotonous change
-Biological feedbacks and uncertainties
-Circulation slow down and C cycle
-Describe accurately what is certain
-Go in massively into outreach
Water column inventory of anthropogenic carbon for year 1994 (Sabine et al., 2004, Science)
Change in CO2 partial pressure in North Atlantic (Omar and Olsen, 2006, Geophysical Research Letters)
atmosphere
surface ocean
What the challenges are:
What the challenges are:
1991-1995
What the challenges are:
1996-2000
What the challenges are:
2001-2005 Poleward of 50 deg Equatorward of 50 deg
What are we missing?
What the challenges are:
-CT 1: establish error bars for current air-sea-exchange estimate and compare with previous uncertainties
-CT2: how much has accuracy for anthropogenic CO2 inventory in ocean improved?
-CT3: how can we help to reduce uncertainties in continent wide flux estimates?
-CT4: how large are biological FB uncertainties?
-CT5: how large are uncertainty extrapolations in time?
-Cross cutting: describe what is certain/uncertain
Loosen up and also dream big dreams!
Be precise and concrete!
Do not forget that we have a mission to society…
Thank you, Melchor!