Contributing to a Sustainable ATM System for Europe Helping Stakeholders to Measure, Monitor and Mitigate Aviations Impact on the Environment

Andrew Watt Head of Support to SES-related Policies

8th March 2016

2

Flight Plans - scheduled - actual

Radar Data

Landings, Take-offs - agreed slots - actual

Airlines

Air traffic control

Airports

PRISME Datawarehouse

Statistics

Forecasts Analysis

Flight and Fleet Databases Data on 10 Million flights per year

Network Manager

Operations

Other Data

Arranged for Analysis

Arranged for specific operational functions

i

Answering questions & accelerating discovery by Combining Data

Two complementary systems

Business Intelligence

Operations

Plan

Do

Review

The PRISME datawarehouse is

4

Mature 1997 2016 Rich

Flights Aircraft

Airports Performance

Civil & Military

Forecasts Airspace

Plans Projects

Economics Events

Connected

Dashboards

FTP

B2B

Integration

BI tools

Applications Facts on Demand

Established

75 projects in 2015

50+ customers 15+ Tb

20k monthly data loads 60Bn records Processes

PRISME Fleet: An Integrated Fleet Database

5

Manufacturers National Registries

Other Sources: Airlines, BADA, CRCO,

Experts

Aircraft Database

Daily Flight Data

Aircraft Usage

Comms/Nav/Surv Projects etc.

Aircraft Capability

Some Aircraft Databases

PRISME-Fleet integrates more

PRISME-Fleet

Including engines, other equipment

PRISME-Fleet: 250,000 aircraft worldwide

6

24,694

382

32,022

21,993

22,373

3

32,445

49

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Not Executive

Current, Civil Aircraft in PRISME-Fleet

Turboprop

Prop

Jet

N/K

50,000 smaller aircraft (turboprop & prop)

Majority of N/K is helicopters (14,000)

22,000 current bizjets

Counts correct as at 6/1/2016

1,192

87,189

168,195

Total

Aircraft in PRISME-FleetCurrent?

N/K Not Current

TRAFFIC FORECASTS

Methodology of the 7-year STATFOR Forecast 7

WHY FORECASTING?

Our customers need forecasts to plan, manage and decide Air traffic organisations Law-makers and regulators Airlines Airports Manufacturers Research institutes and universities Banks & other financial institutions Others

More importantly, since 2011

Methodology of the 7-year STATFOR Forecast 8

STATFOR FORECASTS

20-year forecast Long-Term forecast Published every 2/3 years

7-year forecast Medium-Term forecast Published in February and

refreshed in September

2-year forecast Short-Term forecast Published together with 7-

year forecast (halfway version in May)

Methodology of the 7-year STATFOR Forecast 9

2013 Long-term Forecast

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Chart1

1.628877202219601.62887720221960196019601960196019601960

1.81531495430.11445783131.69192896181961196119611961196119611961

1.82512746760.00540540541.75742137471962196219621962196219621962

1.86437752060.02150537631.82544891531963196319631963196319631963

1.952690140.04736842111.89610971531964196419641964196419641964

2.06062778590.05527638191.96950570481965196519651965196519651965

2.26669056450.12.04574275941966196619661966196619661966

2.30594061760.01731601732.12493085321967196719671967196719671967

2.2765030778-0.01276595742.20718421721968196819681968196819681968

2.40406575030.05603448282.2926215041969196919691969196919691969

2.46294082990.02448979592.38136595921970197019701970197019701970

2.56106596250.03984063752.47354559921971197119711971197119711971

2.71806617480.0613026822.56929339551972197219721972197219721972

2.91431644010.07220216612.66874746691973197319731973197319731973

2.92412895340.00336700342.77205127861974197419741974197419741974

2.924128953402.87935384911975197519751975197519751975

3.02225408610.0335570472.99080996531976197619761976197619761976

3.1301917320.03571428573.10658040561977197719771977197719771977

3.32644199730.06269592483.22683217211978197819781978197819781978

3.43437964320.03244837763.35173873121979197919791979197919791979

3.434379643203.48148026391980198019801980198019801980

3.3264419973-0.03142857143.61624392591981198119811981198119811981

3.326441997303.75622411741982198219821982198219821982

3.43437964320.03244837763.90162276371983198319831983198319831983

3.53250477590.02857142864.05264960611984198419841984198419841984

3.63062990860.02777777784.20952250511985198519851985198519851985

3.93481781980.08378378384.3724677541986198619861986198619861986

4.23900573110.07730673324.54172040571987198719871987198719871987

4.54319364230.07175925934.71752461171988198819881988198819881988

4.94550668630.08855291584.90013397441989198919891989198919891989

5.14175695160.03968253975.08981191270199019901990199019901990

5.3062931740.0325.28683204210.032199119911991199119911991

5.65650852350.0665.49147856960.066199219921992199219921992

5.75266916840.0175.70404670310.017199319931993199319931993

6.00003394270.0435.92484307820.043199419941994199419941994

6.32403577560.0546.15418619930.054199519951995199519951995

6.72245002940.0636.39240690030.063199619961996199619961996

7.11235213120.0586.63984882080.058199719971997199719971997

7.61732913250.0716.89686890260.071199819981998199819981998

8.08960353870.0627.16383790410.062199919991999199919991999

8.44554609440.0447.44114093520.044200020002000200020002000

8.3526450873-0.0117.729178013-0.011200120012001200120012001

8.1438289602-0.0258.0283646389-0.025200220022002200220022002

8.380.0298.33913239760.029200320032003200320032003

8.8760.05918854428.661929582004200420042004200420042004

9.2180.03853086988.99722182982005200520052005200520052005

9.5610.03720980699.3454928152006200620062006200620062006

10.0430.05041313679.7072449262007200720072007200720072007

10.0830.003982873610.08320082008200820082008200810.083

9.413-0.06644847769.41320092009200920092009200910.4733000738

9.4930.00849888459.49302010201020102010201010.8787081658

9.7840.03065416629.7820112011201120112011201111.2998090881

9.548-0.02412101399.5489.6082012201220122012201211.7372102902

201320139.4249.276-0.012987013201320130.283201312.1915427352

201420149.6899.4090.0281196944201420140.515201412.6634618098

201520159.9759.5170.0295180101201520150.841201513.1536482701

2016201610.2989.690.0323809524201620161.145201613.6628092232

2017201710.5769.8150.0269955331201720171.407201714.1916791476

2018201810.8859.9690.0292170953201820181.689201814.7410209525

2019201911.19510.1320.028479559001.947201915.3116270782

2020202011.38719459982020202010.190.02120202.2915.9043206395

2021202111.58268877650.03976793422021202120212021202116.5199566129

2022202211.78153917720222022202220222022202217.1594230698

2023202311.983803420620232023202320232023202317.8236424579

2024202412.189540115720242024202420242024202418.5135729316

2025202512.39880887712025202510.6120.01820253.51819.2302097343

2026202612.61167034320262026202620262026202619.9745866339

2027202712.828186192420272027202720272027202720.7477774141

2028202813.048419163420282028202820282028202821.5508974236

2029202913.272433071320292029202920292029202922.3851051847

2030203013.50029282672030203010.840.01320304.9123.2516040645

2031203113.732064454820312031203120312031203124.1516440112

2032203213.967815114220322032203220322032203225.0865233566

2033203314.207613116520332033203320332033203326.0575906894

2034203414.451527946120342034203420342034203427.0662468006

2035203514.69963028012035203511.250.01120356.0928.1139467038

AnnualGrowth

Long-Term Average Growth

Actual Traffic

Long-Term Trend before 2009

Forecast Traffic

Flights in Europe (Million)

Annual Growth

Long-Term Trend

IFR Movements in ESRA (Million)

Growth

Trend

MTFLow

MTFbase Growth

LTFScD

LTFScC Growth

MTFdiff

LTFdiff

PrevTrend

Version 2

History of updates

Created: MG 24/02/2009: Graph of Growth - Actual + MTF09 + long-term outlook (LTF09 quick refresh - not published figures!)

MG 04/02/2010: Updated with MTF09b results and ESRA08 figures, including estimated long-history ESRA08 data

MG 15/03/2010: Updated with MTF10 results.

CL 12/01/11: Updated with MTF10b results and LTF10 results + actual data for 2010!

MG 14/3/11: Updated with MTF11

DM 21/9/11: 1991-2002 growth re-aligned with STF year-summary.

CL 01/02/12: actual data for 2011

DM 23/2/12: updated with MTF12

CL 21/2/13: updated with MTF13

Statistics for the Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) prior to 2002 are estimated from other geographical regions.Historical Average Growth3.9%(before drop in 2009)

3.6%(including 2011)

New Average Growth1.7%(from last actual to end of LTF)

YearIFR Movements in ESRA (Million)Growth8-year growthTrendPrevTrendOld ValuesMTFBaseMTFLowMTFdiffMTFhigh GrowthMTFbase GrowthMTFlow GrowthLTFScALTFScELTFScCLTFScDLTFdiffLTFScA GrowthLTFScC GrowthLTFScC GrowthLTFScD Growth