contributed paper prepared for presentation at the 59th...
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Leading Partners in Science Limiting warming to 2 degrees: Opportunities and challenges for agriculture and New Zealand
Andy Reisinger
New Zealand Agricultural GHG Research Centre (NZAGRC)
Contributed paper prepared for presentation at the 59th AARES Annual Conference, Rotorua, New Zealand, February 10-13, 2015
Copyright 2015 by Authors. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice
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Leading Partners in Science
Limiting warming to 2 degrees:
Opportunities and challenges for agriculture and New Zealand
Andy Reisinger
New Zealand Agricultural GHG Research Centre (NZAGRC)
Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 20 FEBRUARY 2015 | 1
Leading Partners in Science
Warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions
Overview
• Cumulative emissions and the 2°C limit
• Interaction of agriculture and CO2 mitigation
• Expanding agriculture’s mitigation potential
• Conclusions
Leading Partners in Science
Warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions Warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions
Source: IPCC Working Group I
Leading Partners in Science
Warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions Warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions
Limiting warming to 2°C with reasonable
probability (>66%) requires cumulative CO2
emissions to be capped at about 2900 GtCO2
… about 1900 Gt CO2 already emitted by 2011
… about 1000 Gt CO2 to go
… less than 30 years at current emission rates
Source: IPCC Working Group I what about non-CO2 emissions, particularly agriculture?
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Limiting warming to 2oC requires zero CO2 by 2100 Limiting warming to 2°C requires zero CO2 by 2100 … but a different level of ambition for agriculture?
CO2 emissions non-CO2 from agriculture
Data provided by L. Clarke (GCAM), D.P. v. Vuuren (IMAGE); see also Clarke et al. (2014) (IPCC WGIII)
Agriculture mitigation: assumptions
• global mitigation at effective carbon price • low elasticity of food demand • no special considerations for food security • steeply rising marginal abatement costs • relatively short lifetime of CH4
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Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 20 FEBRUARY 2015 | 6
Source: MAGICC simulations using RCP database at IIASA; van Vuuren et al, 2011
Abatement of non-CO2 gases keeps the 2°C window feasible (even if only just)
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Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 20 FEBRUARY 2015 | 7
Source: MAGICC simulations using RCP database at IIASA; van Vuuren et al, 2011
Abatement of non-CO2 gases keeps the 2°C window feasible (even if only just)
Without effective agriculture mitigation, we’d have to remove CO2
from the atmosphere well before 2050 to remain within the 2°C limit
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Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 20 FEBRUARY 2015 | 8
Global agricultural marginal abatement costs from Beach et al. (2008); model results from Reisinger et al, 2012
Interactions between agriculture and CO2 mitigation
All pathways shown result in radiative forcing of 450ppm CO2-eq in 2100
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Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 20 FEBRUARY 2015 | 9
Global agricultural marginal abatement costs from Beach et al. (2008); model results from Reisinger et al, 2012
Interactions between agriculture and CO2 mitigation
All pathways shown result in radiative forcing of 450ppm CO2-eq in 2100
Taking agriculture mitigation
seriously buys about 15 years for
the peak of CO2 emissions
NPV for energy sector: >$500 billion
Leading Partners in Science
Copyright © 2010 New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre 20 FEBRUARY 2015 | 10
Interactions between agriculture and CO2 mitigation
Global agricultural marginal abatement costs from Beach et al. (2008); model results from Reisinger et al, 2012
… but this doesn’t change the long-term picture:
CO2 mitigation to zero by 2100
is non-negotiable
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11
How can we get there?
Sources: van Vuuren et al, 2011; Davis et al, 2013
What are agriculture’s wedges, and
can we make them bigger?
Leading Partners in Science
Warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions
Agriculture’s wedges
• Efficiency gains
• Demand management
• New/improved technologies
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Emissions intensity and milk yield per cow
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Output per cow, kg FPCM per year
kg
CO
2-e
q. p
er
kg
FP
CM
Industrialized countries
Mixed, in development
Marginal lands Drivers: feed efficiency, herd structure, management practices
Source: Gerber et al. 2013
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Reducing emissions intensities holds major promise
Significant decline in emissions intensities for livestock products 1960s – 2000s:
• beef: -27% • milk: -38% • pork: -45%
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Source: MfE, 2013
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Warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions Demand management
• Supply and demand mgmt
• 30-40% global food waste (UK: 18% unavoidable, 18% potentially avoidable, 64% avoidable)
• Dietary shifts: potentially large gains reduced rate of land clearing
reduced on-farm emissions
health co-benefits
strong opposing socio-economic drivers
difficult to quantify, let alone enact
Source: IPCC, 2014
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Warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions Diets …
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Warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions Diets …
Source: FAO (2012), Alexandratos and Bruinsma
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Warming is proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions New technologies
• New technologies:
breeding low-emitting animals (proof-of-concept → market adoption)
vaccine/inhibitor against methanogens (→ proof of concept)
low-emissions feeds (proof-of-concept (N, CH4) → systems testing)
soil carbon enhancement/avoiding loss (measurement, models, persistence)
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Focusing global attention remains a challenge
Livestock non-CO2 emissions
Source: IEA/EDGAR data for 2010 (IPCC WGIII methodology); plotted using Chartsbin.com
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Focusing global attention remains a challenge
Livestock non-CO2 /
total GHG emissions
Source: IEA/EDGAR data for 2010 (IPCC WGIII methodology); plotted using Chartsbin.com
Leading Partners in Science
Focusing global attention remains a challenge
Livestock non-CO2 /
capita
Source: IEA/EDGAR data for 2010 (IPCC WGIII methodology); plotted using Chartsbin.com
Leading Partners in Science
Global Research Alliance
Launched in December 2009
Brings countries together on a voluntary basis to find ways to grow more food without growing greenhouse gas emissions:
• Reduce the emissions intensity of agricultural production systems and increase their potential for soil carbon sequestration, while enhancing food security
• Improve understanding, measurement and estimation of agricultural emissions
• Improve farmers’ access to agricultural mitigation technologies and best practices
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Global Research Alliance
Member countries January 2015; source: www.globalresearchalliance.org; plotted using chartsbin.com
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www.nzagrc.org.nz www.globalresearchalliance.org
Thank you