constraint management and its relation to process ......constraint management principles 1. every...
TRANSCRIPT
Constraint ManagementConstraint Managementand its relation toand its relation to
Process ImprovementProcess ImprovementProcess ImprovementProcess Improvement
An Introduction An Introduction
11
Who AM I?Who AM I? Goal Systems International (Senior Partner)
Author of several books…
Bill Dettmer
22
Who AM I?Who AM I? Goal Systems International (Senior Partner)
Author of several books
Bill Dettmer
33
What we’re going to talk about…What we’re going to talk about…
Systems thinking and principles of constraint management
…over the next hour
y g p p g( :20 minutes)
How to determine system success ( :25 minutes)
• Linking local decisions to global outcomes
Applying systems thinking and constraint management to: pp y g y g g( :20 minutes)
• Production/supply chain processes• Project managementj g• Policy determination
Q & A ( :25 minutes)
44
Q & A ( :25 minutes)
Traditional AssumptionsTraditional Assumptions“As we advance deeper into the knowledge economy, the basic assumptions underlying much of what is taught and practiced in
the name of management are hopelessly out of date... most of our assumptions about business, technology and organization are at
least 50 years old. They have outlived their time.
55Excerpted from an article by Peter Drucker (Forbes, Oct. 5, 1998)
Traditional AssumptionsTraditional Assumptions“As we advance deeper into the knowledge economy, the basic assumptions underlying much of what is taught and practiced in
the name of management are hopelessly out of date... most of our assumptions about business, technology and organization are at
least 50 years old. They have outlived their time.
“A lt hi t hi d ti i li i“As a result, we are preaching, teaching and practicing policiesthat are increasingly at odds with reality and therefore
counterproductive...
66Excerpted from an article by Peter Drucker (Forbes, Oct. 5, 1998)
Traditional AssumptionsTraditional Assumptions“As we advance deeper into the knowledge economy, the basic assumptions underlying much of what is taught and practiced in
the name of management are hopelessly out of date... most of our assumptions about business, technology and organization are at
least 50 years old. They have outlived their time.
“A lt hi t hi d ti i li i“As a result, we are preaching, teaching and practicing policiesthat are increasingly at odds with reality and therefore
counterproductive...
“These assumptions that determine what we pay attention to and what we ignore are usually held subconsciously by the scholars, the writers, the teachers, the practitioners in the field. Thus, theythe writers, the teachers, the practitioners in the field. Thus, they
are rarely analyzed, rarely studied...rarely challenged—indeed rarely even made explicit.”
77Excerpted from an article by Peter Drucker (Forbes, Oct. 5, 1998)
The Importance of Operating on the Basis The Importance of Operating on the Basis ofof ValidValid Assumptions...Assumptions...of of ValidValid Assumptions...Assumptions...
…you risk kissing the WRONG END of the dog!
88
One person’s “improvement” isOne person’s “improvement” isanother person’s another person’s changechange
“There is a rumor going around that change is coming.I want you to make sure that it
DOESN’T get into THIS building!”
“There is a rumor going around that change is coming.I want you to make sure that it
DOESN’T get into THIS building!”
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DOESN T get into THIS building!DOESN T get into THIS building!
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If you’re not prepared to climb onto the steamroller...
be prepared to become part of the road !
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…be prepared to become part of the road !
Analysis …Analysis … The accepted approach to management has always
been analytical, or reductionist
• Breaks down the organization into components or “silos”
• Measures / standardizes each component’s internal processes
• Overall system performance is the sum of the performance of its individual parts
THIS is the underlying assumption behindall process improvement methodologies…
and was effective for some time
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… versus … versus SynthesisSynthesis Systems have increased in complexity
• Horizontal integrationOff h t i t• Off-shore outsourcing, etc.
Companies have traded off system control for cost saving• E g contaminated pet foodE.g., contaminated pet food
Analysis (reductionism)-based performance has reached a point of diminishing returns
Th i d l l f ff t d ll ff t th• The same or increased levels of effort produce smaller effects on the bottom line Sometimes with negative effects!
A new approach to management, based on synthesis• A “whole system” approach
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Complex SystemsComplex SystemsInteractionsInteractionsREAL systems can be
Government / Regulatory Agencies
CustomersEducational Systems
REAL systems can be VERY complicated…
Production
SalesPublic
RelationsFINANCE/CONTROLLER
End Users
Admin./ HR
Technical Support
Info. Tech.
Purchas-
CONTROLLER
Engineer-ing
Legal
QC/QA
ing
Project Mgt.Market-
ing Economic Environment
Social IssuesCompetitors
International Political Situation
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Social IssuesCompetitors
What is the What is the Systems Approach?Systems Approach?Based on THREE concepts…Based on THREE concepts…pp
Holistic thinking (No part of the system is “an island”)
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What is the What is the Systems Approach?Systems Approach?Based on THREE concepts…Based on THREE concepts…pp
Holistic thinking (No part of the system is “an island”)
The whole is not the sum of its parts• Interactions—interdependencies—among components are as
i t t i t t th th f f thimportant, or more important, than the performance of the components themselves
The hole s stem can’t be managed effecti el b s boptimi ing• The whole system can’t be managed effectively by suboptimizing
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Independence versus Independence versus InterInterdependencedependence
“A system in an inseparable whole It is not the sum of its parts It isA system in an inseparable whole. It is not the sum of its parts. It is not greater than the sum of its parts. There is nothing to sum. There are no parts. The system is a new and different and unique contribution of its members and the world.contribution of its members and the world.
To search backwards in time for the parts is to deny the self-transforming nature of systems. A system is knowable only as itself. It g y y yis irreducible. We can’t disentangle the effects of so many relationships. The connections never end. They are impossible to understand by analysis [reductionism].”
―Margaret J. Wheatley and Myron Kellner-Rogers
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What is the What is the Systems Approach?Systems Approach?Based on THREE concepts…Based on THREE concepts…pp
Holistic thinking (No part of the system is “an island”)
The whole is not the sum of its parts• Interactions—interdependencies—among components are as
i t t i t t th th f f thimportant, or more important, than the performance of the components themselves
• The whole system can’t be managed effectively by suboptimizing
Avoiding Suboptimization• Not all components are “created equal”p q• Some may accept inefficiencies so that more critical components
can succeed
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W. Edwards DemingW. Edwards DemingThe Dangers of SuboptimizationThe Dangers of Suboptimization
“Optimization is a process of orchestrating the efforts of all “Optimization is a process of orchestrating the efforts of all components toward achievement of the stated aim. Optimization is components toward achievement of the stated aim. Optimization is management’s job. Everybody wins with optimization.management’s job. Everybody wins with optimization.
“Anything “Anything less than optimizationless than optimization of the whole system of the whole system will bring will bring eventual losseventual loss to every component of the system. Any group should to every component of the system. Any group should ha e a its aim optimi ation o er time of the larger s stem the gro pha e a its aim optimi ation o er time of the larger s stem the gro phave a its aim optimization over time of the larger system the group have a its aim optimization over time of the larger system the group operates in.operates in.
“The obligation of any component is to contribute its best to the“The obligation of any component is to contribute its best to theThe obligation of any component is to contribute its best to the The obligation of any component is to contribute its best to the system, system, not to maximize its own production, profit, or sales, nor any not to maximize its own production, profit, or sales, nor any other competitive measure. Some components may operate at a loss other competitive measure. Some components may operate at a loss to themselves in order to optimize the whole systemto themselves in order to optimize the whole system, including the , including the components that take a loss.”components that take a loss.”
1919Deming, W.E., The New Economics for Industry, Government, Education (1993), pp. 53, 100
Constraint TheoryConstraint Theory
A t ti i h l tA t ti i h l tA way to optimize whole systemsA way to optimize whole systems
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The Concept of System ConstraintsThe Concept of System Constraints
Systems are analogous to CHAINS Every chain has ONE weakest link
• A part that limits what the whole chain can do
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A part that limits what the whole chain can do
Weakest Link…An OpportunityWeakest Link…An OpportunityWeakest Link…An OpportunityWeakest Link…An OpportunityIf the weakest link (constraint) limits the If the weakest link (constraint) limits the
system’s potential the most…system’s potential the most…
th if it b i d it h ld l idth if it b i d it h ld l id…then if it can be improved, it should also provide…then if it can be improved, it should also providethe best opportunity to MAXIMIZEthe best opportunity to MAXIMIZE
system performancesystem performance
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system performancesystem performance
The “Archimedes Point”The “Archimedes Point”
“Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand,“Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand,and I can move the world.”and I can move the world.”
2323The WEAKEST LINK (system constraint)is ALSO the system’s Archimedes point…
The Systems ApproachThe Systems ApproachConstraint theoryConstraint theoryConstraint theory…Constraint theory…
…recognizes the …recognizes the “Archimedes point”“Archimedes point” concept and concept and thethe dependenciesdependencies that allow its performance to bethat allow its performance to bethe the dependenciesdependencies that allow its performance to be that allow its performance to be
maximized through wholemaximized through whole--system system optimizationoptimization
Some parts of the system are MORE INFLUENTIAL on results than others
ALL s stem parts DEPEND on one another to a greater or ALL system parts DEPEND on one another to a greater or lesser degree
Maximum SYSTEM performance requires p qOPTIMIZATION—the deliberate sacrifice of “efficiency everywhere” to achieve the best overall system results
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Constraint TheoryConstraint TheoryConstraintConstraint
TheorySuccessful application of…
Constraintrequires effective ConstraintManagement
…requires effective…
System-L l Primary Collateral
…the effective
…which in turn requires…
ThinkingProcess
C i
LevelMeasures
Principlesy
CM ToolsCollateralCM Tools
LEAN
JIT
Assumptions Throughput
Inventory /
application of…
ConstraintManagement
Model(Strategy)
Drum-Buffer-Rope/
JITConcurrentEngineeringCellular Mfg.Poka-YokeKaizen
FiveFocusing
Steps
yInvestmentOperatingExpense
We’ll examine each of the first two (and part of the third) in a
little more detail…
pSimplified-DBR
Critical ChainProject Mgt.
Supply ChainManagement
SIX SIGMA(DMAIC)
SPC
5-S
DOE
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QFDETC.
Constraint Management PrinciplesConstraint Management Principles
1 Every system has:1. Every system has:• A goal• A set of necessary conditions• A set of necessary conditions
2. All systems are constrained in some way• The system constraint never disappears ; it
merely “migrates” somewhere else
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System ImprovementSystem ImprovementConstraint ManagementConstraint ManagementConstraint ManagementConstraint Management
System(External factors)
Process
Process Process
Process
Process
Process
ProcessProcess
Focus is on IDENTIFYING the process that is the SYSTEM CONSTRAINT (whether it’s
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inside the system or outside)…
System ImprovementSystem ImprovementConstraint ManagementConstraint ManagementConstraint ManagementConstraint Management
Process “D”
Operation OperationOperation
1 2 3
Operation OperationOperation
6 5 4
…and on improving the constraining operationwithin the constraining process first
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Constraint Management PrinciplesConstraint Management Principles
1. Every system has a goal and a set of necessary conditions2 All t t i d i2. All systems are constrained in some way
3. Organizations live or die as integrated systems• NOT as a collection of discrete, independent
processes
4. Systems are analogous to chains• The performance of a system is limited by very few
“links” (constraints) at any given time, usually only ( ) y g y yone
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Breaking ConstraintsBreaking ConstraintsHow much improvement?How much improvement?pp
Where is the weakest link?
What happens if we TRIPLEthe strength of that link?
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Breaking ConstraintsBreaking ConstraintsHow much improvement?How much improvement?pp
Does the strength of the entire chain triple?
If not what is the weakest link NOW?If not, what is the weakest link NOW?
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Breaking ConstraintsBreaking ConstraintsHow much improvement?How much improvement?pp
It’s HERE…
All real systems are finite,and therefore limited in some way.
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y
When one constraint is broken, some otherfactor assumes the role of system constraint
The System ChainThe System Chain(Expanded)(Expanded)
ExternalService
(Expanded)(Expanded)
Marketing & Sales
Supplier #1
Distribution#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7
CUSTOMER
Supplier #2
Production
3333The chain really extends from the market demand, through the entire
organization chain, to the external customer who pays for our products
The “Big Picture”…The “Big Picture”…System
(External factors)
SYSTEMSYSTEMPERFORMANCE
Each time a system constraint is identified and broken, overall
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is identified and broken, overall system performance increases (to the level of the next system
constraint)
The “Big Picture”…The “Big Picture”…System
(External factors)
SYSTEMSYSTEMPERFORMANCE
Each time a system constraint is identified and broken, overall
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is identified and broken, overall system performance increases (to the level of the next system
constraint)
The “Big Picture”…The “Big Picture”…System
(External factors)
SYSTEMSYSTEMPERFORMANCE
Each time a system constraint is identified and broken, overall
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is identified and broken, overall system performance increases (to the level of the next system
constraint)
The “Big Picture”…The “Big Picture”…System
(External factors)
SYSTEMSYSTEMPERFORMANCE
Each time a system constraint is identified and broken, overall
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is identified and broken, overall system performance increases (to the level of the next system
constraint)
The “Big Picture”…The “Big Picture”…System
(External factors)
SYSTEMSYSTEMPERFORMANCE
Each time a system constraint is identified and broken, overall
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is identified and broken, overall system performance increases (to the level of the next system
constraint)
Continuous ImprovementContinuous Improvement
Value At some finite time,a point of diminishing returnsp g
is reached…
Time (cycles, iterations)
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Time (cycles, iterations)
Why Isn’t “CI Everywhere” EffectiveWhy Isn’t “CI Everywhere” Effectivein the Long Term?in the Long Term?gg
Everything is improved The concept of
an ArchimedesImprovement
dpeverywhere
simultaneously.
an Archimedespoint is ignored.
resources andattention are limited.
If… …and… …and…
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Why Isn’t “CI Everywhere” EffectiveWhy Isn’t “CI Everywhere” Effectivein the Long Term?in the Long Term?gg
Insufficient resources/ attention are applied to the
system constraint.
…then…
Everything is improved The concept of
an ArchimedesImprovement
dpeverywhere
simultaneously.
an Archimedespoint is ignored.
resources andattention are limited.
If… …and… …and…
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Why Isn’t “CI Everywhere” EffectiveWhy Isn’t “CI Everywhere” Effectivein the Long Term?in the Long Term?gg
System improvement takesmuch longer and is more
difficult to detect…then…
difficult to detect.
If Insufficient resources/ attention are applied to the
system constraint.
…then…
If…
Everything is improved The concept of
an ArchimedesImprovement
dpeverywhere
simultaneously.
an Archimedespoint is ignored.
resources andattention are limited.
If… …and… …and…
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Red Curve and Green CurveRed Curve and Green Curve-Repeated application of the Five Focusing Steps-Successive constraints broken
$$$Improvement
-Cost reductions (efficiency target)-Single iteration of Continuous Improvement (inertia)
Ti
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Time
Constraint Management PrinciplesConstraint Management Principles1. Every system has a goal and a set of necessary conditions2. All systems are constrained in some way3 Organizations live or die as integrated systems3. Organizations live or die as integrated systems4. Systems are analogous to chains
5 The system optimum IS NOT the sum of the local5. The system optimum IS NOT the sum of the local optima• Most significant problems lie in the linkages, NOT the links
F i l l ffi i i i t d ti t• Focusing on local efficiencies is counter-productive to achieving the organization’s goal
6 All t bj t t th h f6. All systems are subject to the phenomenon of cause and effect
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Applying ConstraintApplying ConstraintApplying Constraint Applying Constraint ManagementManagementgg
How to “operationalize” the principlesHow to “operationalize” the principles
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The Constraint Management Approach to The Constraint Management Approach to ImprovingImproving SystemSystem PerformancePerformanceImproving Improving SystemSystem PerformancePerformance
Determine the SYSTEM BOUNDARY• Plant? Division? Company?
Define the GOAL of the systemDefine the GOAL of the system
“To make more money, now and in the future…”
Establish the necessary conditions that must be satisfied to achieve the goalg
Apply Five Focusing Steps to improve system performance
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performance
The Five Focusing StepsThe Five Focusing Stepsfor System Improvementfor System Improvementy py p
1. IDENTIFY the system constrainty
2. Decide how to EXPLOIT the system constraint
3. SUBORDINATE everything else to the decision in Step-2
4. ELEVATE the system constraint
5. Go back to Step-1• But BEWARE of “inertia”
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Ramifications of the Five Focusing StepsRamifications of the Five Focusing Steps
Only a very few key nodes of our systems need continual close attentionco t ua c ose atte t o
Most of the data we collect is “noise”, rather than “signal”signal
Nearly all the internal components of our system h ld b t d t h i ifi tshould be expected to have significant excess
capacity—and this is NOT BAD!
Measuring and striving for local efficiencies ANYWHERE EXCEPT the constraint sub-optimizes the whole system
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y
Types of ConstraintsTypes of Constraints
MATERIAL VENDOR /SUPPLIER
RESOURCE FINANCIALRESOURCE FINANCIAL
MARKET KNOWLEDGE/COMPETENCECOMPETENCE
POLICY4949
POLICY
Types of ConstraintsTypes of Constraints
MATERIAL VENDOR /SUPPLIER
RESOURCE FINANCIALRESOURCE FINANCIAL
MARKET KNOWLEDGE/COMPETENCECOMPETENCE
POLICYWe’ll return to
S f
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POLICY THIS factor alittle later
Any questions so farAny questions so farbefore we move on?before we move on?
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How to DetermineHow to DetermineHow to DetermineHow to DetermineSystemSystem SuccessSuccess
…and tie local decisions to …and tie local decisions to global system successglobal system success
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Evaluating Operating DecisionsEvaluating Operating DecisionsThe Traditional ApproachThe Traditional Approachpppp
In competitive business, things do NOT stand stillE t l ( titi ) i t l l• External (competitive) environment always evolves
• Internal improvements are required to remain competitive
“ ” “The only constant is change…”
Change creates the need for continual decisionsg• WHAT to change?• What to change TO?• HOW to cause the change?• HOW to cause the change?
Desirability of decisions usually measured financially
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Evaluating Operating DecisionsEvaluating Operating DecisionsThe Traditional ApproachThe Traditional Approach
Financial standard for most decisions is profit
pppp
Financial standard for most decisions is profit• A decision that produces higher profit is GOOD• A decision that produces lower profit (or a loss) is BAD
Three key financial measures to evaluate the “rightness” or “wrongness” of a decision…g g• Net Profit (NP)• Cash Flow (CF)• Return on Investment (ROI)• Return on Investment (ROI)
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Evaluating Operating DecisionsEvaluating Operating DecisionsThe Traditional ApproachThe Traditional Approach
NP and ROI are VERY difficult concepts to apply to
pppp
p pp yday-to-day decisions
• Effects of a decision on NP CF and ROI not easily• Effects of a decision on NP, CF and ROI not easily quantifiable in financial terms
Ho to determine the global (compan ide) financial• How to determine the global (company-wide) financial impact of local (departmental) decisions?
Constraint theory provides a “bridge” between local operating decisions and global financial well-being...
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Evaluating Operating DecisionsEvaluating Operating DecisionsThe Constraint Management ApproachThe Constraint Management Approach
THROUGHPUT (T)
The Constraint Management ApproachThe Constraint Management Approach
THROUGHPUT (T)
INVENTORY / INVESTMENT (I)
OPERATING EXPENSE (OE)
These metrics are predicated on the assumption that the organization’s goal is to...
make more money, NOW and IN THE FUTURE
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Throughput (T)Throughput (T)
Definition: The rate at which an organization generates money (usually through sales of product or service) Newmoney (usually through sales of product or service). New money coming into (and retained by) the system.
Difference between revenues and variable costs
Add d l Added value
Assessed at unit, product, and organizational levels
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Investment and Inventory (I)Investment and Inventory (I)
Definition: The money tied up (not easily liquidated) within the organization enabling it to function.
Capital assets• Facilities• Equipment• Equipment
Raw materials acquired for conversion and subsequent sale (generation of Throughput)
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Operating Expense (OE)Operating Expense (OE)
Definition: The money the organization spends to generate Throughput. The money flowing out of the system.
N ll t t i f h d (fi d ) Normally, most categories of overhead (fixed expenses)• Including direct and indirect labor
Expenditures required just toopen the doors for business
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Why T, I and OE are ImportantWhy T, I and OE are Important
Increase sales? Speed up delivery to clients?
Reduce fixed expenses (overhead)?
Will the decision…?
Speed up delivery to clients? Reduce backlogs? Shorten production time? Shorten time between order and
If so, “OE” decreases(and Net Profit improves)
Reduce the need for materials?payment? Shorten time between delivery and
payment? Increase revenue volume in the same
Reduce the need for materials? Reduce the need for equipment? Shorten production time? Reduce the need to hold finished Increase revenue volume in the same
time period? Liberate excess capacity? Make better use of the constraint?
goods?
If so, “I” decreases(and ROI improves)
If so, “T” increases(and Net Profit improves)
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Relation of T, I and OERelation of T, I and OEto Traditional Business Measures of Meritto Traditional Business Measures of Merit
Net Profit = T — OE T = Sales Revenue (total) — Variable Costs (total)
Return On Investment = T — OEI
The profit from any decision is… T&OEThe ROI from any decision is… T&OE
I I Cash Flow = T&OE& I
t (t = time)t (t = time)
The CF from any decision is… T&OE& It
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What Should Our Priorities Be?What Should Our Priorities Be?
TRADITIONAL JAPANESE CONSTRAINTTRADITIONALMANAGEMENT
1 OE
JAPANESEMANAGEMENT
(“JIT”)
1 I
CONSTRAINTMANAGEMENT
1 T1. OE 1. I 1. T
2. I 2. T 2. I
3. T 3. OE 3. OE
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Why Does Constraint ManagementWhy Does Constraint ManagementEmphasizeEmphasize Increasing Throughput?Increasing Throughput?Emphasize Emphasize Increasing Throughput?Increasing Throughput?
8(UpperTheoretical
Limit)Limit)
$ Sales Revenue
T
(LowerVariable Cost
OE I
Fixed Costs(Operating Expense)
Inventory/Investment
Throughput(Marginal
Contributionto Profit)
0(LowerTheoretical
Limit)
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Why Does Constraint ManagementWhy Does Constraint ManagementEmphasizeEmphasize Increasing Throughput?Increasing Throughput?Emphasize Emphasize Increasing Throughput?Increasing Throughput?
8(UpperTheoretical
Limit)
y = potential inventory reductionz = potential variable cost reduction
x = potential fixed cost reductionLimit)
Practical Limit
$ Sales Revenue
z(Lower
Variable Cost
x y
Fixed Costs(Operating Expense)
Inventory/Investment
Throughput(Marginal
Contributionto Profit)
0(LowerTheoretical
Limit)
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Why Does Constraint ManagementWhy Does Constraint ManagementEmphasizeEmphasize Increasing Throughput?Increasing Throughput?Emphasize Emphasize Increasing Throughput?Increasing Throughput?
8(UpperTheoretical
Limit)
ay = potential inventory reductionz = potential variable cost reduction
x = potential fixed cost reduction
a = potential throughput ($$) increase
Limit)
Practical Limit
$ Sales Revenue
z(Lower
Variable Cost
x y
Fixed Costs(Operating Expense)
Inventory/Investment
Throughput(Marginal
Contributionto Profit)
0(LowerTheoretical
Limit)
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Why Does Constraint ManagementWhy Does Constraint ManagementEmphasizeEmphasize Increasing Throughput?Increasing Throughput?Emphasize Emphasize Increasing Throughput?Increasing Throughput?
x = potential fixed cost reduction
8(UpperTheoretical
Limit)
a
y = potential inventory reductionz = potential variable cost reductiona = potential throughput ($$) increase
Practical Limit
$ Sales Revenue
xz
0(LowerTheoretical
Variable Cost
x y
Fixed Costs(Operating Expense)
Inventory/Investment
Throughput(Marginal
Contributionto Profit)
0Limit)
To increase beyond the practical limit
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To increase beyond the practical limit,additional expenditures of OE and I are required
(ELEVATION)
Are We in Business to Are We in Business to SaveSave Money,Money,or toor to MakeMake Money?Money?or to or to MakeMake Money?Money?
Can we cut costsTOO MUCH?TOO MUCH?
How do we know hwhen
“enough is enough?”
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Constraint Management Financial StrategyConstraint Management Financial Strategy
Primary focus on increasing “T”
Allow “I” to seek its natural level (usually less than before)
Capitalize on opportunities to reduce “OE”• But ENSURE that capacity to generate “T” is not compromised
• Don’t waste time or endanger future “T” by actively searchingo as e e o e da ge u u e by act e y sea c gfor reductions in “OE” today
We call this Throughput-Based Decision Support
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We call this Throughput-Based Decision Support
Th “PTh “P Q” E lQ” E lThe “PThe “P--Q” ExampleQ” Example
Applying the Five Focusing Steps and Applying the Five Focusing Steps and pp y g g ppp y g g pThroughputThroughput--Based Decision SupportBased Decision Support
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A Small ProblemA Small Problem**Physical Physical Layout
Work Flow Fixed Expense:$6 000 per week$6,000 per week
7070* Goldratt, E.M., The Haystack Syndrome (1990)
Questions for the Small ProblemQuestions for the Small Problem
If you could supply all of your current customers, how much money per week could you make?
How much money per week are you prepared to commit to How much money per week are you prepared to commit to returning to the corporation each week?
If you had to choose, which product would you prefer to produce?
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Net Profit ComputationNet Profit Computation
Net Profit = TP+Q – OE $90 $100
T = SRP+Q – VCP+Q- $45 - $40
$45 $60$45 $60
x100 x50If you could supply all of your current customers (no internal constraint), how much money per week could you make?
$4,500 $3,000ANS: $1,500
week could you make?
$7,500
-$6,000
Which is the “better” product?
ANS: “Q”
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$1,500
Are We Constrained?Are We Constrained?There is ALWAYS a system constraint. The real question is “Where IS it?”
IDENTIFY the system constraintD id h EXPLOIT h i Decide how to EXPLOIT the constraint
SUBORDINATE everything else ELEVATE the constraint ELEVATE the constraint Repeat, but beware of INERTIA
When we’re searching for an INTERNAL CAPACITY constraint, we can CALCULATE…
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How Much of Each Resource’s Time is Required to How Much of Each Resource’s Time is Required to Produce ONE Unit of Product?Produce ONE Unit of Product?
Physical Layout
Work Flow Fixed Expense:$6,000 per week
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Do We Have an Internal Constraint?Do We Have an Internal Constraint?How Heavily is Our Capacity Loaded?How Heavily is Our Capacity Loaded?
:15 min :15 min :15 min :10 min:15 min :15 min :15 min :10 min
1,500 1,500 1,500 1,000
:10 min :30 min :05 min :05 min
500 1 500 250 250500 1,500 250 250
Total Time Required: 2,000 3,000 1,750 1,250M hi A il bl 1 1 1 1Machines Available: 1 1 1 1
Minutes Available: 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400PURE LOAD: 83% 125% 73% 52%
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What Should We Do?What Should We Do?
If we’re INTERNALLY constrained, we must ask “What is the BEST USE of our constrained capacity?”
IDENTIFY the system constraint
capacity?”
IDENTIFY the system constraint
Decide how to EXPLOIT the constraintDecide how to EXPLOIT the constraint
In other words, how do we best EXPLOIT the capacity we have?
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Exploiting the ConstraintExploiting the Constraint
We can’t make all of “P” and all of “Q”
What are the options?
• Make all of “P” and as much of “Q” as possible in the time remaining
• Make all of “Q” and as much of “P” as possible in the time remaining
Which should we do? Why?
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Traditional ResponsesTraditional Responses“Conventional Wisdom”“Conventional Wisdom”
PRODUCTION: Make “Q ” because product costs are PRODUCTION: Make Q, because product costs are lower ($40 vs. $45)
SALES M k “Q ” b lli i ( d i i ) SALES: Make “Q,” because selling price (and commission) is higher ($100 vs. $90)
FINANCE: Make “Q,” because marginal contribution to Net Profit is higher ($60 vs. $45)
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But Is “Q” Really Better?But Is “Q” Really Better?
$100$90 $
- $40
$
- $45
$60
$
$45 $
:30
$ 5
:15 :30
$2.00/min
:15
$3.00/min
7979
$2. /min$3. /min
But Is “Q” Really Better?But Is “Q” Really Better?
:30 min
50
:15 min
100 501,500
100900
50
$3 000
60
$2 700 $3,000$2,700
$5,700$5,700
- $6,000
8080
<-$300>
Let’s Try It the Other Way...Let’s Try It the Other Way...
$100$90 $
- $40
$
- $45
Noneof this
changesif
$60
$
$45
if wemake “P”
thepriority $
:30
$ 5
:15
priorityproduct...
:30
$2.00/min
:15
$3.00/min
8181
$2. /min$3. /min
Is “Q” Really Better?Is “Q” Really Better?
:30 min
50
:15 min
100 50900
1001,500
30
$1 800
100
$4 500 $1,800$4,500
$6,300$6,300
- $6,000
8282
$300
The Five Focusing StepsThe Five Focusing Steps
IDENTIFY the constraint
• “B” (by demand / capacity calculation)
Decide how to EXPLOIT the constraintDecide how to EXPLOIT the constraint• PRODUCTION: Make “P” first, THEN “Q”
SUBORDINATE hi l SUBORDINATE everything else• SALES: Push the right product (“P”)• CEO: Reward based on increasing total “T,” not local g ,
optima
8383
The Fallacy of Allocating Fixed CostsThe Fallacy of Allocating Fixed CostsIn the “P - Q” example...
Operating Expense (overhead): $6 000 per weekOperating Expense (overhead): $6,000 per weekTotal units of “P” and “Q”: 150 units per weekAllocation of fixed costs: $40 per unit
“ “QVariable Cost (raw material): $45 $40Allocated fixed cost per unit: +$40 +$40F ll ll t d t it $85 $80
“P” “Q”
Fully allocated cost per unit: $85 $80
Selling price: $90 $100Fully allocated cost per unit: -$85 -$ 80Fully allocated cost per unit: $85 $ 80Profit margin per unit: $ 5 $ 20
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Scenario #2Scenario #2A foreign customer wants 100 “P” and 50 “Q,” in addition to the domestic order for “P” and “Q” we’re already trying to fill. But the foreign customer wants a 15% price break to offset overseas transportation coststransportation costs.
Requested selling price: $76.50 $85.00“P” (foreign) “Q” (foreign)
Requested selling price: $76.50 $85.00Fully allocated cost: -$85.00 -$80.00Profit margin: <-$8.50> $ 5.00
Would a traditional cost-oriented organization take or refuse this order?
Would a “Throughput”-oriented organization take or refuse this order?
8585
Scenario #2Scenario #2ObstaclesObstacles
We STILL have a constraint (“B”)
W ’t k ll f “Q” (d ti ) h l f “P” d We can’t even make all of “Q” (domestic), much less any of “P” and “Q” (foreign)
We’ve EXPLOITED the “B” resource all we can
All we can do now is to ELEVATE our capacityp y• And this COSTS MORE!
Options to increase (Elevate) capacity:Options to increase (Elevate) capacity:• Buy another “B” machine ($100,000 investment and hire an additional
operator at $400 per week)• Add shifts (at $400 per week, per machine)
8686
dd s s (a $ 00 pe ee , pe ac e)
Comparative AnalysisComparative Analysis
$90 $100 $76.50 $85
-$45 -$40 -$45 -$40
$45 $60 $31.50 $45
:15 min :30 min :15 min :30 min
$3.00/ $2.00/min min
$2.10/ $1.50/min min
8787
#1 #3 #2 #4
Resource Loading Resource Loading -- “P “P -- Q”Q”Domestic and ForeignDomestic and Foreign
1 500 1 500 1 500 1 5001,500 1,500 1,500 1,500
500 1 500 250 250500 1,500 250 250
1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500, , , ,
500 1,500 250 250
TOTAL TIME REQ.: 4,000 6,000 3,500 3,5002,400 min/per shift: 2 3 2 2
8888
AVAILABLE TIME: 4,800 7,200 4,800 4,800PURE LOAD: 83% 83% 73% 73%
REAL Increased Profit PotentialREAL Increased Profit Potential
100 $45 $4,500
50 $60 $3,000
100 $31.50 $3,150
50 $45 $2,250
Total Contribution (All P and Q): $12,900Less original weekly OE: - $6,000Less additional shifts (5 @ $400 each): - $2,000
8989
( @ )TOTAL NET PROFIT / WEEK: $ 4,900
Net Result of the DecisionNet Result of the DecisionCost-Oriented
Company
“Throughput”-OrientedCompany
Order REFUSEDNP = ─$300 / week
Order ACCEPTEDNP = $4,900 / week
INCREASED INCOME FACTOR (company Net Profit): $4,900 = 18 3x$5,500–$300 = 18.3x
Opportunity cost to the cost-oriented company:
$300
Opportunity cost to the cost oriented company:$4,900 per week
$58,800 per quarter$235,200 per year
9090
$ , p y
“P “P -- Q” ProblemQ” ProblemLessons LearnedLessons Learned
Throughput is the key local measure of success in advancing toward the system’s goal
Maximum Throughput can’t be predicted without knowing where the system constraint is
Five Focusing Steps help identify / break constraints
Using Throughput-Based Decision Support for operational decisions canUsing Throughput Based Decision Support for operational decisions can provide a competitive advantage over companies that DON’T use it
Improving the constraint produces immediate benefitsp g p• Improving non-constraints doesn’t• But DEGRADING non-constraints might not hurt, either
9191
Any questions so farAny questions so farbefore we move on?before we move on?
9292
Constraint ManagementConstraint Management
ToolsTools
9393
Constraint Management ToolsConstraint Management Tools
The Logical Thinking Processg g• Graphical cause-and-effect to identify/resolve system constraints
Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM)• Shorter durations, higher delivery due-date reliability
“Drum-Buffer-Rope” (DBR) production control• And supply chain management
9494
Policy ConstraintsPolicy Constraints
Underlie almost all other kinds
A conscious decision on how business will or will not be done
Maybe discretionary or imposedW d id• We decide
• The law requires…
An unconscious acceptance of historical practices “This is the way we’ve always done it…” or “We don’t do things that way ”
9595
“We don’t do things that way.” Thinking “inside the box”
Examples of Policy ConstraintsExamples of Policy Constraints “We will not approve new projects if their projected Internal
Rate of Return is less than 20% in three years.” • Reason given for not pursuing new technology developmentReason given for not pursuing new technology development
“If we can’t manufacture a component for less than we can buy it we will outsource that component ”buy it, we will outsource that component. • International Harvester policy in the 3 years before bankruptcy
“W l i ” “We are a metal-stamping company.”• Reason given for not investing in laser-cutting technology
f
“We strive for efficiency everywhere.”
And the most common one of all…
9696
In other words, in MOST cases…We DO IT TO OURSELVES!We DO IT TO OURSELVES!
9797
How do we…How do we…
Identify and manage constraints that are:• Not physical (not visible)?Not physical (not visible)?
• Not easily measurable?
• Apply to more than just manufacturing systems?
• Pervade the organization (complex interdependency)?
Analyze complex system interactions?
9898
The Logical Thinking ProcessThe Logical Thinking Process
Current Reality TreeRoot Causes of Deviations (UDE)
Intermediate Objectives MapStandard of Required Performance
9999
The Logical Thinking ProcessThe Logical Thinking Process
Evaporating CloudResolve Conflict in Change
Future Reality TreeDesign and Test Change Plan
100100
The Logical Thinking ProcessThe Logical Thinking Process
Prerequisite TreePlan Change Implementation
101101
Critical Chain Project ManagementCritical Chain Project ManagementOutcomesOutcomesOutcomesOutcomes
Improve delivery due-date reliability• PERT/CPM: Average 15% on time
CCPM A 80 85% ti• CCPM: Average 80-85% on time
Shorten overall project durations Shorten overall project durations• 40-60% of estimated durations using PERT/CPM
102102
“Critical Chain”“Critical Chain”Project Scheduling and Resource AllocationProject Scheduling and Resource Allocationj gj g
Avoids multi-tasking Project Delivery
Project Buffer
Eliminates resource contentions
Improves reliability of
Project Buffer
Improves reliability of delivery date projections• Provides a project “delivery”
buffer at the end
Feeding Buffer
buffer at the end• Smaller “assembly” buffers• No “pad” for individual
activitiesFeeding Buffer
CCPM track record: 85% of all projects completed on time or early
103103
Integrating the ToolsIntegrating the ToolsThe Thinking Process and CCPMThe Thinking Process and CCPMgg
The Prerequisite Tree as an input toCritical Chain Project Management
104104
Critical Chain Project Management
“Drum“Drum--BufferBuffer--Rope” Production ControlRope” Production Control
Designed to…
Increase manufacturing flow rate Eliminate backlogsg Eliminate stock-outs Ensure promised delivery dates Deliver sooner than competitors Minimize work-in-process inventory
E bl k t d d Enable make-to-demand
105105
“Drum“Drum--BufferBuffer--Rope”Rope”Production SchedulingProduction Scheduling
“DRUM” : The maximum PACE of the most restricted (capacity-constrained) resource
“BUFFER” : A means to PROTECT the CCR and the Shipping Dock from “starvation”BUFFER : A means to PROTECT the CCR and the Shipping Dock from starvation•TIME, not inventory
“ROPE” : A communication mechanism to guarantee material release does not
106106
exceed the PACE of the CCR•Similar to kanban
Some Typical TOC/DBR PoliciesSome Typical TOC/DBR Policies(Counter(Counter--Intuitive!)Intuitive!)(( ))
Small minimum process batches• The minimum number to be produced by the capacity-constrained resource p y p y
(CCR) before a set-up change will be allowed• NOT likely to be “ONE,” but not very large runs, either
S ll f b h Small transfer batches• ONE, if possible
Earliest Due Date (EDD) priority• Build TO ORDER FIRST—ALWAYS, even if it means breaking a set-up• Build to stock ONLY WHEN ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY
Daily production scheduling
107107 Non-CCRs enjoy IDLE TIME
CCCompatibilityCompatibility
Are Constraint Management and Six Sigma Are Constraint Management and Six Sigma t ll l i ?t ll l i ?mutually exclusive?mutually exclusive?
108108
Compatibility?Compatibility?
Six Sigma was designed to minimize costsg g
Constraint Management was designed to increase income (revenue)
BOTH have a common objective: BOTH have a common objective:
fMaximize company profitability
109109
The DilemmaThe Dilemma
Minimize Practicecosts Six Sigma
Maximizeprofitability
110110
The DilemmaThe Dilemma
Minimize Practicecosts Six Sigma
Maximizeprofitability
Maximizeincome
PracticeConstraint
ManagementManagement
Assumption: Six Sigma and Constraint Managementare NOT compatible
111111
p
The DilemmaThe Dilemma
Minimize PracticePracticecosts Six SigmaSix Sigma
U C t i tMaximizeprofitability
Use ConstraintManagement to target
Six Sigma efforts
Maximizeincome
PracticeConstraint
Management
PracticeConstraint
ManagementManagementManagement
Assumption: Six Sigma and Constraint Managementare NOT compatible
112112
p
The SolutionThe SolutionUse constraint management to target six sigma effortsUse constraint management to target six sigma effortsg g gg g g
Model the ENTIRE system (logical thinking process) Create a long-term system (company) strategyg y ( p y) gy
• Determine where the system constraint is NOW• Determine where it will be in the FUTURE
Apply the Five Focusing Steps (constraint managementApply the Five Focusing Steps (constraint management principles)• Measure system improvement by “T” increases, NOT cost
reductionsreductions Use Six Sigma process (DMAIC) to break the system
constraintD t i h th t i t SHIFTS Determine when the constraint SHIFTS
Re-apply Six Sigma to the NEW system constraint Re-assess/refine/replace the strategy
113113
Re assess/refine/replace the strategy
System Improvement Current Reality TreeSystem Improvement Current Reality Tree
I have the desire toimprove my system
I have the authorityto change my system
I have sufficient knowledgef t ( t it)
“If…” “…and…” “…and…”
improve my system.[MOTIVATION]
to change my system.[INFLUENCE]
of my system (or access to it).[SUBJECT MATTER
KNOWLEDGE]
114114
System Improvement Current Reality TreeSystem Improvement Current Reality Tree
I am empowered to“…then…” I am empowered toimprove my system.
[POTENTIAL]
I have the desire toimprove my system
I have the authorityto change my system
I have sufficient knowledgef t ( t it) improve my system.
[MOTIVATION]to change my system.
[INFLUENCE]of my system (or access to it).
[SUBJECT MATTERKNOWLEDGE]
115115
System Improvement Current Reality TreeSystem Improvement Current Reality Tree
I am empowered to I have the will /
“…then…”
I am empowered toimprove my system.
[POTENTIAL]
a e t e /determination to act.[SELF-DISCIPLINE]
I acceptresponsibility
I have the desire toimprove my system
I have the authorityto change my system
I have sufficient knowledgef t ( t it)
“If…” “…and…”
responsibilityfor action.
[ACCOUNTABILITY]
improve my system.[MOTIVATION]
to change my system.[INFLUENCE]
of my system (or access to it).[SUBJECT MATTER
KNOWLEDGE]
116116
System Improvement Current Reality TreeSystem Improvement Current Reality Tree
I am empowered toI have, and know how to I have the will /
“If…” “…and…” “…and…”
I am empowered toimprove my system.
[POTENTIAL]
use, tools / proceduresto improve the system.
[METHODOLOGY]
a e t e /determination to act.[SELF-DISCIPLINE]
I acceptresponsibility
I have the desire toimprove my system
I have the authorityto change my system
I have sufficient knowledgef t ( t it) responsibility
for action.[ACCOUNTABILITY]
improve my system.[MOTIVATION]
to change my system.[INFLUENCE]
of my system (or access to it).[SUBJECT MATTER
KNOWLEDGE]
117117
System Improvement Current Reality TreeSystem Improvement Current Reality Tree
My system improves.[DESIRED EFFECT]“…then…”
I have, and know how to I have the will / I am empowered touse, tools / proceduresto improve the system.
[METHODOLOGY]
a e t e /determination to act.[SELF-DISCIPLINE]
I am empowered toimprove my system.
[POTENTIAL]
I acceptresponsibility
I have the desire toimprove my system
I have the authorityto change my system
I have sufficient knowledgef t ( t it) responsibility
for action.[ACCOUNTABILITY]
improve my system.[MOTIVATION]
to change my system.[INFLUENCE]
of my system (or access to it).[SUBJECT MATTER
KNOWLEDGE]
118118
System Improvement Current Reality TreeSystem Improvement Current Reality Tree
My system improves.[DESIRED EFFECT]
“If…”
Positive Reinforcing
I have, and know how to I have the will / I am (MORE AND MORE)
Reinforcing Loop
use, tools / proceduresto improve the system.
[METHODOLOGY]
a e t e /determination to act.[SELF-DISCIPLINE]
empowered to improvemy system.
[POTENTIAL]
I acceptresponsibility
I have the desire toimprove my system
I have the authorityto change my system
I have (MORE AND MORE)sufficient knowledge
“…then…”
responsibilityfor action.
[ACCOUNTABILITY]
improve my system.[MOTIVATION]
to change my system.[INFLUENCE]
sufficient knowledgeof my system (or access to it).
[SUBJECT MATTERKNOWLEDGE]
119119
Questions ?Questions ?Questions…?Questions…?
120120
“Well, so much for trying to work for change from within the system…”
For “homework”….For “homework”….1. Think about your system at Sigma-Aldrich. Where does
the system constraint lie?
2. How did you determine where it lies?
3. What might you be able to do to relieve or break that constraint?constraint?
4. If you’re able to break that constraint, what other part of y , pthe system will be next to emerge as the new constraint?
121121
GoalGoalSystemsSystemsSystemsSystems
InternationalInternational
122122
“Constructing and CommunicatingCommon Sense”
123123