considerations for policy makers regarding further ......wage requirements. provincial job losses,...

PHASE III MINIMUM WAGE SURVEY:

COST IMPACTS AFFECTING EMPLOYMENT

OUTCOMES IN ALBERTA

Considerations for policy makers regarding further

provincial minimum wage increases.

On behalf of the 127 community chambers who represent over 24 000 businesses in the province, the Alberta

Chambers of Commerce (ACC) respectfully submits the following analysis and recommendations to the

Government of Alberta as it considers increasing the Provincial Minimum Wage in 2017 and 2018.

The ACC is unique in Canada in that every community chamber in Alberta is a member of the provincial network

as well as the Canadian Chamber of Commerce network.

2

Alberta’s Employer Community is Reaching Out to Policy Makers

This is the third survey of employers the ACC has conducted on the issue of the provincial minimum wage since an objective of $15/hour by 2018 was announced in 2015. This issue is very important to Albertans’ prosperity.

The increase of last October made Alberta’s wage threshold the highest of all the provinces, and an increase of nearly 50% in less than four years would represent the most dramatic increase in Canadian history. Even as these changes achieved a milestone for minimum wage earners, the province was also setting other records that should be cause for careful consideration regarding policies affecting Alberta’s labour market and further wage requirements. Provincial job losses, Employment Insurance recipients and business closures have reached record highs as Albertans weather the most severe economic downturn in generations.

Public policy measures and external market conditions have had major impacts on the employer community and Albertans as a whole. Because of this, credible feedback on the impacts of rising wage costs is a valuable resource to help policy makers make informed and balanced decisions going forward. That has been the intent in conducting these surveys: to help policy makers by providing a channel for employers to share insights on the anticipated and real impacts of the minimum wage initiative on workplaces and employees over time.

The survey data shows respondents have consistently voiced one message: the costs of rapid minimum wages increases are borne by more than just the employers of minimum wage employees. From cashiers to corporates, many more Albertans are paying for these increases through lost benefits, hours, advancement opportunities, and – most importantly – jobs.

Hundreds of employers from a cross-section of sectors, organizational size and numbers of years in operation have engaged in each phase of the surveys. A diverse community of employers is expressing a shared narrative of the negative ripple effects the minimum wage increases are having on provincial employment opportunities; the impacts of the policy initiative are clearly not limited to minimum wage earners and their employers. For example, at least 45% of respondents to each survey report they employ no minimum wage employees. Over 65% of Phase lll survey respondents were from sectors other than Food & Beverage and Retail which are typically reliant on minimum wage earners in their workforces.

This feedback is particularly valuable because it conveys the context of minimum wage increases among other pressures businesses have been adjusting to in policy changes and new market conditions. As circumstances have changed among these issues, respondent’s prioritization of issues has also changed. What respondents are saying is that the effects of rapid minimum wage increases should not been minimized. The increases have been identified in the top three issues negatively affecting businesses in each survey and, in Phase lll, was identified ahead of slowing economic activity or increased taxes as the leading cause of negative changes.

Employers have again sent the message that the minimum wage initiative didn’t effectively balance the needs of minimum wage earners and job creators facing a major economic downturn. After the implementation of only two of four scheduled increases, the speed and scale of the rising minimum wage has already outpaced businesses’ ability to adapt to the new cost structures of higher minimum wages and other new policies. Employers are losing more than profits; they’re losing the ability to be opportunity providers.

The question to policy makers now is: does it make sense to continue the pace of minimum wage increases or, can we press pause until employers catch their breath and can adjust to a new business environment?

Albertans would benefit from a balanced approach to this issue that accounts for the information provided through these surveys and other sources. Deferring further minimum wage increases wouldn’t be backing down from a commitment to help minimum wage earners. Instead, it would ease pressures on employers so they can provide realistic and sustainable opportunities of job creation and employment which support all Albertans’ prosperity.

3

Highlights of the Phase lll Data

In the Phase II Survey, 63.3% of respondents indicated they experienced negative changes to their organization between October, 2015 and February, 2016; in Phase 3, 54.0% had experienced similarly negative changes due to the minimum wage increase in October 2016.

1 in 4 respondents has laid off workers since October 1, 2016; of those employers who have laid off workers, 45% indicated the majority of their layoffs were due to minimum wage increases.

Nearly half of all respondents have cutback workers’ hours since October 1, 2016; of those employers who have cutback workers’ hours, 49% indicated the majority of their cutbacks were due to minimum wage increases.

On average, employers indicated the October 1, 2016 increase in minimum wage had resulted in an additional cost of $25,307.62 to their organization with an average cost per employee of $1,991.61 per year.

For organizations with 50 or fewer employees, the cost per employee is higher at $2,147.10, and is expected to rise by 41% to $3,030.27 per employee with a minimum wage of $15 per hour.

Comparing the Phase III survey to the Phase II survey, increases in the minimum wage overtook slowing economic activity as the leading cause of negative changes for employers.

In the Phase II survey, the top three causal factors resulting in negative changes to employers were:

1. Slowdown in economic activity 2. Increases in the minimum wage 3. Decreases in oil prices

In the Phase III survey, the top three cause factors resulting in negative changes to employers were:

1. Increases in the minimum wage 2. Slowdown in economic activity 3. Increases in taxes

4

Respondents Profile Location of Respondents

Respondents were located throughout Alberta as seen on the map below. About 2.99% of respondents were from communities not indicated on the map.

Map 2 – Percent of Survey Respondents by Region / Community

5

Industry Sectors

Respondents came from a variety of sectors and had a variety of staff profiles.

Chart 3 – Survey Respondents by Sector (Percent of Survey Respondents)

“Other” category sectors included construction, services, and additional sectors

5.79%

4.95%

2.11%

1.58%

1.47%

2.00%

1.58%

1.26%

4.63%

1.89%

20.53%

10.21%

3.79%

14.32%

2.63%

5.16%

16.11%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Healthcare and Health Related Services

Non-profit

Technology

Oil and Gas

Transportation

Industrial Goods and Services

Consumer

Daycare / Childcare

Financial Services

Education

Retail

Professional Services

Manufacturing

Food and Beverage

Agriculture and Food Processing

Tourism and Hospitality

Other (please specify)

Percent of Survey Respondents

Sect

or

6

Size of Respondent Organizations

Respondents were of a variety of organizational sizes, however, the majority of respondents were small organizations with ten or fewer employees.

Chart 4.1 – Percent of Survey Respondents by Number of Employees

Chart 4.2 – Percent of Survey Respondents by Organization Size

33.68%

20.21%

10.74%

6.84% 6.74% 7.26% 8.11%

3.37%0.95% 0.74% 1.37%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-30 31-50 51-100 101-150 151-300 301-500 501 ormore

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Percent of Employees in Each Business who are Paid Minimum Wage

85.47%

8.11%

6.42%

Small (1 -50 employees)

Medium (51 - 100)

Large (101 or more)

7

Age of Respondents Organization

Chart 5 – Survey Respondents by Number of Years in Operation (Percent of Survey Respondents)

Percentage of employees who are paid minimum wage

Respondents provided information on what proportion of their staff were paid minimum wage. The majority (60.03%) paid all of their employees more than the minimum wage.

Chart 6 – Percent of Survey Respondents by Percent of Workforce Being Paid Minimum Wage

(Percent of Survey Respondents)

215

146

123

108

8978

4255

816 12 16

0

50

100

150

200

250

5 or Less 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-55 56-60

Nu

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of

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Years in Operation

45.03%

4.92% 3.83%2.62%

4.70%6.23% 7.32%

9.07% 8.85%7.43%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0% 1-2% 3-5% 5-7% 8-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-50% 50-75% 75-100%

Pre

cen

t o

f Su

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y R

Esp

on

de

nts

Percent of Employees in each Organization who are Paid Minimum Wage

8

Survey Responses This section contains questions on changes that have occurred to employers since October 1, 2016, and their perspectives on the impacts of minimum wage increases.

Since the October 1, 2016 increase in minimum wage, has your business laid off any workers?

Chart 7 – Percent of Respondents Who Have Laid-off Workers Since October 1, 2016

Thinking of those workers you have laid off, what percentage of your layoffs could be attributed to recent increases in minimum wage?

Chart 8 – Percent of Employers Who Attribute Various Percentages of Layoffs to Minimum Wage Increases

25.05%

74.95%

Yes No

18.22%16.95%

9.32%

2.97% 2.54%4.66% 4.24%

1.69%3.81% 3.39%

32.20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0% 1-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%

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Percent of Layoffs Attributed to Minimum Wage Increases

9

Since the October 1, 2016 increase in minimum wage, has your business reduced the number of hours your employees work?

Chart 9 – Percent of Respondents Who Have Cut Back Workers’ Hours Since October 1, 2016

Thinking of those workers who have been affected by cutbacks in hours, what percentage of your workers’ cutbacks could be attributed to recent increases in minimum wage?

Chart 10 – Percent of Employers Who Attribute Various Percentages of Cutbacks to Minimum Wage Increases

48.62%51.38%

Yes No

10.15% 10.38%12.14%

7.06%

3.53%

7.73%

4.64%3.53%

7.95%

3.53%

29.36%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0% 1-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% 91-100%

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Percent of Layoffs Attributed to Minimum Wage Increases

10

Thinking of the October 1 increase in minimum wage, which of the following statements is most true in regards to your business

Chart 11.1 – Percent of Respondents Agreeing with Statements on the Effect of Minimum Wage Increases

Chart 11.2 – Percent of Respondents Agreeing with Statements on the Effect of Minimum Wage Increases (By Organization Size)

60.97%

35.57%

3.46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

The minimum wage increase hashad a negative effect on my

organization

The minimum wage increase hashad no effect on my

organization

The minimum wage increase hashad a positive effect on my

organization

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Statements Regarding the Effect of Minimum Wage Increases on Respondents

59.45%

37.41%

3.15%

74.67%

17.33%

8.00%

64.29%

33.93%

1.79%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

The minimum wage increase hashad a negative effect on my

organization

The minimum wage increase hashad no effect on my

organization

The minimum wage increase hashad a positive effect on my

organization

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Statements Regarding the Effect of Minimum Wage Increases on Respondents

Small Medium Large

11

Since the October 1, 2016 increase in minimum wage, please indicate which, if any, of the following changes has occurred to your business (click all that apply)

Chart 12 – Other Changes to Respondents since October 1, 2016 (Percent of Survey Respondents)

15.35%

18.05%

1.30%

0.22%

26.05%

42.81%

21.41%

24.43%

16.76%

5.62%

26.59%

15.68%

6.16%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

I have reduced my hours of operation

I have cancelled plans to expand

I have closed locations/offices

I have closed my business entirely

I have raised my prices

I have experienced reduced profits

I have raised the pay of workers being paid minimumwage

I have raised the pay of workers being paid aboveminimum wage

I have reduced the number of employees paid aboveminimum wage

I have lost higher-paid employees

I have limited promotions and/or the advancement ofmy existing employees

I have limited and/or reduced other employeeexpenses such as health benefits



12

Consider your response to the previous questions regarding changes to your business since October 1, 2016. Please indicate the extent to which you agree or disagree that the previously mentioned

changes were caused by the following factors:

Chart 13.1 – Causes of Other Changes to Respondents since October 1, 2016 (Percent of Survey Respondents)

43.06%

66.60%

33.06%

20.16%

42.51%

30.08%

8.23%

4.41%

37.42%

23.00%

35.69%

28.63%

28.34%

26.42%

13.58%

3.92%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Slowdown in economic activity

Increases in the minimum wage

Decreases in oil prices

Devaluation of the Canadian Dollar

Increases in taxes

Increases in costs due to regulatory compliance

Lack of market access / inability to exportproducts



Strongly Agree

Somewhat Agree

13

Chart 13.2 – Comparison of Causal Factors Resulting in Changes to Respondents since October 1, 2016 and from October 1, 2015 to February 1, 2016 (Percent of Survey Respondents)

*Combination of respondents indicating they somewhat agreed and strongly agreed

56.93%

74.27%

45.07%

39.78%

23.36%

65.51%

6.93%

68.75%

80.48%

48.79%

70.85%

56.50%

89.60%

21.81%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Decreases in oil prices

Slowdown in economic activity

Devaluation of the Canadian Dollar

Increases in taxes

Increases in costs due to regulatory compliance

Increases in the minimum wage

Lack of market access / inability to export products


Phase II Phase III*

14

Given the October 1, 2016 increase of the minimum wage to $12.20, what has been the estimated financial impact to your business in bringing minimum wage earners up to the $12.20 per hour rate? AND across all wage categories? Please indicate your estimated monetary costs per year due to the minimum wage increases.

Chart 14.1 – Cost Increases to Employers Due to Minimum Wage Increases and Across All Wage Categories since October 1, 2016


Table 14.2 – Average Financial Costs of Minimum Wage Increases per Employer and Employee (Separated by Organization Size)

Average Financial Costs of Bringing Minimum Wage

Workers up to New Wage Rate Per

Employer

Average Financial Costs of Bringing Minimum Wage Workers up to

New Wage Rate Per Employee

Average Financial Costs of New

Minimum Wage Rate Across All

Wage Categories Per Employer

Average Financial Costs of New


Wage Categories Per Employee

Small (1 – 50 employees) $11,233.67 $1,209.31 $19,834.24 $2,147.10

Medium (51 – 100 employees) $41,264.17 $1,018.87 $56,767.32 $1,401.66

Large (100 or more employees) $43,234.92 $230.96 $59,727.91 $392.43

All $16,694.32 $1,124.05 $25,307.62 $1,991.61

16.12%

5.92%

8.78%

11.02%

13.88%

8.98%8.37%

6.73%

10.41%

6.12%

3.67%

6.54%

3.89%

6.54%

8.79%

15.34%

10.02%8.18%

14.72%12.07%

8.79%

5.11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0 $1 – 1000 $1001 -$2000

$2001 -$4000

$4001 -$8000

$8001 -$10,000

$10,001 -$15,000

$15,001 -$25,000

$25,001 -$50,000

$50,001 -$100,000

$100,001 ormore

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Expected Costs per Year

Financial Costs of Bringing Minimum Wage Workers up to New WageRate

Financial Costs of New Minimum Wage Rate Across All WageCategories

Thinking of the next 12 months, to what extent will your plans in regards to your workforce (whether to increase, decrease, or maintain the number of workers you employ) be affected by changes to the provincial minimum wage?

Chart 15 – Degree to Which Respondents Indicated Changes to the Minimum Wage Affect Workforce Planning (Percent of Survey Respondents, by Organization Size)

41.65%

39.80%

53.03%

50.00%

31.24%

31.87%

33.33%

19.05%

8.99%

9.44%

3.03%

11.90%

18.12%

18.89%

10.61%

19.05%

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 100.00%

All

Small (1 - 50 employees)

Medium (51 - 100 employees)

Large (101 or more employees)


Org

aniz

atio

n S

ize

Changes to the minimum wage willGREATLY affect my plans in regardsto my workforce

Changes to the minimum wage willSOMEWHAT affect my plans in regardsto my workforce

Changes to the minimum wage willBARELY affect my plans in regardsto my workforce

Changes to the minimum wage willNOT affect my plans in regardsto my workforce

If the Province increases the minimum wage to $15 per hour by October 1, 2018, please indicate to what extent you expect the following will occur to your business.

Chart 16.1 – Expected Changes to Employers with Proposed Minimum Wage Increases (Percent of Survey Respondents)

Answer Choices Very

Unlikely Somewhat

Unlikely Somewhat

Likely Very Likely

Unknown/ Not Sure

Total

Responses

Reduce number of workers

26.48% 8.83% 14.62% 45.88% 4.20% 691

Reduce workers' hours 26.42% 10.07% 13.87% 46.28% 3.36% 685

Reduce hours of operation

45.75% 14.31% 13.71% 19.67% 6.56% 671

Lose profits 18.34% 5.82% 10.63% 62.15% 3.06% 687

Raise wages of workers paid above minimum wage

15.33% 5.40% 14.31% 59.42% 5.55% 685

Raise prices 16.06% 6.08% 12.01% 60.49% 5.35% 691

Limit promotions and/or the advancement of my existing employees

21.16% 9.13% 14.35% 49.86% 5.51% 690

Reduce the number of employees paid above minimum wage

26.82% 13.85% 15.45% 38.05% 5.83% 686

Cancel plans to expand 25.99% 13.43% 16.79% 31.68% 12.12% 685

Limit and/or reduce other employee expenses such as health benefits

25.69% 12.70% 16.20% 33.72% 11.68% 685

Lose higher-paid employees

26.18% 18.49% 20.27% 23.37% 11.69% 676

Close business entirely 60.80% 14.05% 9.62% 4.59% 10.95% 676

Close Locations 59.64% 10.76% 5.98% 4.78% 18.83% 669

17

Chart 16.2 – Expected Changes to Employers with Proposed Minimum Wage Increases across 3 Phases of Minimum Wage Surveys


* Combination of respondents indicating they somewhat agreed and strongly agreed

** Challenges were not included as potential answers in Phase I

35.06%

43.88%

45.40%

55.37%

64.97%

37.84%

50.32%

48.42%

56.47%

70.27%

43.70%

43.00%

70.50%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Lose higher-paid employees**

Reduce the number of employees**paid above minimum wage

Limit and/or reduce other employeeexpenses such as health benefits

Limit Promotions and/or theadvancement of my existing employees

Raise wages of workerspaid above minimum wage


An

tici

pat

ed

Imp

acts

of

a $

15

Min

imu

m W

age

Rat

e

Phase I Phase II* Phase III*

If the Province increases the minimum wage to $15 per hour by October 1, 2018, what will be the estimated financial impact to your business in bringing minimum wage earners up to the

$15 per hour rate from the current $12.20 AND across all wage categories? Please indicate your estimated monetary costs per year due to the minimum wage increase.

Chart 17.1 – Estimated Cost Increases to Employers at $15 per hour Minimum Wage Due to Minimum Wage Increases and Across All Wage Categories


Table 17.2 – Average Financial Costs of $15 Minimum Wage per Employer and Employee (Separated by Organizational Size)

Average Financial

Costs of Bringing Minimum Wage

Workers up to $15 Wage Rate Per

Employer

Average Financial Costs of Bringing Minimum Wage

Workers up to $15 Wage Rate Per

Employee

Average Financial Costs of $15


Wage Categories Per Employer

Average Financial Costs of $15


Wage Categories Per Employee

Small (1 – 50 employees)

$17,106.73 $1,977.44 $25,616.05 $3,030.27

Medium (51 – 100 employees)

$53,447.58 $1,319.69 $63,792.98 $1,575.14

Large (100 or more employees)

$50,220.07 $288.80 $64,110.45 $358.82

All $22,550.41 $1,814.18 $31,499.78 $2,734.46

25.22%

3.33%3.48%

7.10%

10.00%

7.10% 7.83%

9.86%9.28% 8.84% 7.97%

12.90%

3.33%

1.88%

5.94%

9.71%7.83%

10.00%

10.72% 13.33% 11.01% 13.33%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0 $1 – 1000 $1001 -$2000

$2001 -$4000

$4001 -$8000

$8001 -$10,000

$10,001 -$15,000

$15,001 -$25,000

$25,001 -$50,000

$50,001 -$100,000

$100,001or more

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Expected Costs per Year

Financial Costs of Bringing Minimum Wage Workers up to NewWage Rate

Financial Costs of New Minimum Wage Rate Across All WageCategories

19

Please rank the following challenges in order of importance to your business from most concerning to least concerning.

Chart 18.1 – Ranking of Challenges to Growth and Sustainability by Respondents

(Ranking Average: 9 = Most Concerning, 1 = Least Concerning)

*respondents originally ranked issues as 1 = Most Important and 9 = Least Important. The rankings have been inversed in the above graph to clearly identify relative priority of challenges. See original data

below (Table 18.2)

5.54

5.10

4.86

4.18

4.11

3.58

3.42

3.40

1.83

1 2 3 4 5 6

Increased costs due to minimum wageincreases

Increased costs due to carbon levy / carbonpricing

Increased taxes

Increased costs due to higher CanadianPension Plan (CPP) premiums

Decreased oil prices

Increased costs due to new labour coderegulations

Increased costs due to expanded worker’s compensation requirements

Devaluation of the Canadian dollar

Lack of market access / inability to exportproducts

Average Ranking

Ch

alle

nge

s

Table 18.2 - Ranking of Challenges to Growth and Sustainability (By Percent of Respondents and Average Rank)

RANK

(1=most important, 9=least important) Average Rank

Average

Rank

(Inverse) Challenges 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Increased costs due to

minimum wage increases

39.51% 14.84% 7.85% 7.28% 4.99% 5.14% 4.14% 7.42% 8.84% 3.46 5.54

277 104 55 51 35 36 29 52 62


carbon levy / carbon pricing

22.54% 22.25% 10.27% 9.27% 7.56% 5.71% 5.42% 7.42% 9.56% 3.90 5.10

158 156 72 65 53 40 38 52 67

Increased taxes 9.70% 16.26% 18.69% 14.69% 12.98% 13.41% 5.85% 5.28% 3.14%

4.14 4.86 68 114 131 103 91 94 41 37 22


higher Canadian Pension

Plan (CPP) premiums

1.85% 10.56% 14.98% 19.69% 15.83% 15.26% 12.13% 7.13% 2.57% 4.82 4.18

13 74 105 138 111 107 85 50 18

Decreased oil prices 11.98% 11.70% 12.98% 10.70% 8.99% 10.13% 12.70% 9.84% 10.98%

4.89 4.11 84 82 91 75 63 71 89 69 77

Increased costs due to new

labour code regulations

2.00% 6.99% 11.55% 11.13% 17.83% 16.83% 17.12% 11.70% 4.85% 5.42 3.58

14 49 81 78 125 118 120 82 34


expanded worker’s

compensation requirements

1.00% 3.14% 10.27% 14.98% 18.54% 18.83% 16.41% 11.55% 5.28% 5.58 3.42

7 22 72 105 130 132 115 81 37

Devaluation of the

Canadian dollar

5.85% 10.84% 9.13% 9.70% 9.13% 8.56% 13.27% 24.82% 8.70% 5.60 3.40

41 76 64 68 64 60 93 174 61

Lack of market access /

inability to export products

5.56% 3.42% 4.28% 2.57% 4.14% 6.13% 12.98% 14.84% 46.08% 7.17 1.83

39 24 30 18 29 43 91 104 323

What do you believe would be an acceptable and appropriate minimum wage for the Government of Alberta to implement in 2017?

Chart 19.1 – Acceptable and Appropriate Minimum Wage Rates for 2017


Chart 19.2 – Acceptable and Appropriate Minimum Wage Rates for 2016 (Percent and Absolute Number of Survey Respondents)

Answer Choices Responses Percent

$11.20 per hour (approximately 8.2% decrease) 117 16.69%

$12.20 (0% increase) 271 38.66%

$12.38 per hour (approximately 1.5% increase) 53 7.56%

$12.57 per hour (approximately 3% increase) 77 10.98%




$15 per hour (approximately 23% increase) 44 6.28%

Total Respondents: 701

16.69%

38.66%

7.56%

10.98%

7.13%8.56%

1.43%

6.28%

2.71%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

$11.20 $12.20 $12.38 $12.57 $12.81 $13.42 $14.64 $15 Other(pleasespecify)

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Minimum Wage Rate

considerations for policy makers regarding further ......wage requirements. provincial job losses,...

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