cons staples n n xlp energy cons discret. n financials n s ... · of positions in our model...

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For Personal Use Only—Do Not Forward

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-50

-25

0

25

50

Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17

10

-Day

A/D

Lin

e (%

Issu

es)

-10.9

The S&P 500 experienced its first 1%+ move in either direction today for the first time in 58 trading days. The 1.4% drop left the index below its 50-day moving average as well. Market internals have weakened significantly on the dip, as more stocks in the index are now oversold than overbought, and just 42% of stocks in the index are above their 50-day mov-ing averages. In last week’s Sector Snap-shot we noted that it had been 176 trad-ing days since less than 40% of stocks were above their 50-days, and we also noted that the streak was bound to end at some point. We didn’t expect it to come so close this quickly, but that’s the market for you.

As shown in our trading range screen for the major sectors at right, the pain has been felt most in Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, and Materials have the last week, as all four sectors are now oversold. The only area of the market that is overbought is the tried and true defensive Utilities sector.

It’s been so long since the market experi-enced a pullback that it probably feels more painful than it usually does. That being said, the market’s long-term uptrend remains in place. Note that we did raise our stop prices on a number of positions in our Model Portfolio yesterday, and we will honor them so that cash is raised should this pullback turn into something more sinister.

S&P 500 S&P 500 10-Day A/D Line

% Stocks Above 50-DMAs S&P 500 Trailing 12-Mth P/E

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5

22.0

Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17

21.07

50-day MA

1950

2050

2150

2250

2350

2450

2550

Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%


Sto

cks

Ab

ov

e 5

0-D

ay

42%

Index/Sector Current 1 Wk Ago ETF

S&P 500 N OB SPY

Cons Discret. OS N XLY

Cons Staples N N XLP

Energy OS N XLE

Financials N OB XLF

Health Care N N XLV

Industrials OS N XLI

Materials OS N XLB

Technology N OB XLK

Telecom Svcs N OB IYZ

Utilities OB OB XLU

Circle represents current level.

Tail represents where index was one week ago.

OS N OB

Sector Prices vs Trading Range

S&P 500 Sectors: 2017 YTD % Change

-14.7-10.0

4.3 6.5 6.5 7.5 7.5 8.9 9.8 10.913.6

20.4

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

https://www.bespokepremium.com/bespoke-model-portfolio/bespoke-model-portfolio-update-8917/

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S&P 500 Trading Range: Last Six Months

-17.205

260

280

300

320

340

360


Pri

ce

Materials

440

490

540

590

640

May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17

Pri

ce

Industrials

250

300

350

400

450

Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17P

rice

Financials

570

620

670

720

770


Pri

ce

Consumer Discretionary

490

510

530

550

570

590

610


Pri

ce

Consumer Staples

450

470

490

510

530

550

570

590


Pri

ce

Energy

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000

1050


Pri

ce

Technology

250

300

350

400

450

Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17P

rice

Financials

400

450

500

550

600

650


Pri

ce

Industrials

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000


Pri

ce

Health Care

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290


Pri

ce

Utilities

135

145

155

165

175

185

195


Pri

ce

Telecom

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000


Pri

ce

Health Care

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-60

-30

0

30

60


10

-Day

A/D

Lin

e


-7.0 -60

-30

0

30

60


10

-Day

A/D

Lin

e

Consumer Staples

-14.0

-60

-30

0

30

60


10

-Day

A/D

Lin

e

Energy

-32.4 -60

-30

0

30

60


10

-Day

A/D

Lin

e

Financials

-3.7

-60

-30

0

30

60


10

-Day

A/D

Lin

e

Health Care

-19.8 -60

-30

0

30

60


10

-Day

A/D

Lin

e

Industrials

-10.2

-60

-30

0

30

60


10

-Day

A/D

Lin

e

Technology

-17.7-60

-30

0

30

60


10

-Day

A/D

Lin

e

Materials

-17.6

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60


10

-Day

A/D

Lin

e

Telecom

-20.0 -60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60


10

-Day

A/D

Lin

e

Utilities

24.6

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17S

tock

s A

bo

ve

50-

Day

Financials

61%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Sto

cks

Ab

ov

e 5

0-D

ay

Industrials

30%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Sto

cks

Ab

ove

50

-Day

Technology

43%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Sto

cks

Ab

ove

50

-Day

Energy

25%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Sto

cks

Ab

ove

50

-Day

Health Care

33%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Sto

cks

Ab

ove

50

-Day

Consumer Staples

41%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Sto

cks

Ab

ove

50

-Day


40%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Sto

cks

Ab

ove

50

-Day

Materials

31%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Sto

cks

Ab

ove

50

-Day

Utilities 86%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Sto

cks

Ab

ove

50

-Day

Telecom

50%

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12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17P/

E R

atio

Financials

15.53

16

17

18

19

20

21

22


P/E

Ra

tio

Industrials

20.25

19

20

21

22

23

24

25


P/E

Rat

io

Technology

23.15

30

50

70

90

110

130

150


P/E

Ra

tio

Energy

46.59

18

19

20

21

22


P/E

Ra

tio

Health Care 20.48

20

21

22

23

24


P/E

Rat

io

Consumer Staples

21.77

18

19

20

21

22

23

24


P/E

Rat

io

Materials

20.31

15.5

16.5

17.5

18.5

19.5


P/E

Rat

io

Utilities 18.72

13

14

15

16

17

18


P/E

Rat

io

Telecom

15.01

18

19

20

21

22

23


P/E

Rat

io


21.57

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Rising lines indicate that sector is outperforming S&P 500, while downward sloping lines represent sector under-performance. Red dots indicate Fed rate hikes, and blue dots represent Fed meetings where no changes were made to interest rate policy.

-2

-1

0

1

2

3



-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3


Consumer Staples

-18

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9


Energy

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18


Financials

-12

-9

-6

-3

0


Health Care

-2

0

2

4

6

8


Industrials

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4


Materials

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15


Technology

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0


Telecom Services

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2


Utilities

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0

25

50


10

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A/D

Lin

e

S&P 500

-4.4

1150

1300

1450

1600

Jul-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07

Pri

ce

S&P 500

2 st. dev. above 50-day

50-day MA

2 st. dev. below 50-day

1 st. dev. below 50-day

1 st. dev. above 50-day

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12

Sto

cks

Ab

ove

50

-Day

50%

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12

P/E

Rat

io

S&P 500

14.1250-day MA

Trading Areas

10-Day A/D Line

Stocks Above 50-DMA (%)

P/E Ratios

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08

Sector Relative Strength

cons staples n n xlp energy cons discret. n financials n s ... · of positions in our model...

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