conclusions and summary once again: goals and strategy integration –within ncar, nationally, and...
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Conclusions and Summary• Once again: Goals and Strategy• Integration
– Within NCAR, nationally, and internationally• Education• Management and Budget• Future Plans
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WCIAS: Overarching Goal
To improve society’s ability to manage weather and climate risks by creating and
providing research tools and methods at the critical frontiers of impact assessment
science.
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Goals in Each Theme1. To support improved responses to weather and climate risks by understanding and characterizing the uncertainties affecting the decision-making process.
2. To increase the resilience of human populations to extreme weather and climate events through improved tools, modeling, and data.
3. To catalyze and nurture an interdisciplinary research community studying the effects of climate on human health.
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WCIAS Strategy
• Filling critical gaps in weather and climate impact assessment science
• Developing integrating methods
• Moving toward decision-making as a centerpiece
• Promoting integration of assessment science activities at NCAR, nationally, and internationally
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Integration within NCAR
• CGD-ESIG-GSP (Flood project) • CGD-GSP-RAP-ESIG (Integrated uncertainty
analysis in water resources) • Expanded role of GSP throughout NCAR • Other initiatives (Biogeosciences, Water, Fire,
GIS)
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Divisional Budget Structure FY04FY04 Assessment Initiative
Divisional Allocation$683,556
CGD, 23%
GSP, 10%
ESIG, 50%
RAP, 17%
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Links to Other Initiatives
GIS
Uncertainty
Climate / Health
Extremes
Wildland Fire
Cyberinfrastructure
Biogeosciences
Water Cycle across Scales
WCIAS
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Initiative Linkages
• Wildland Fire – developed model to forecast location of housing developments – AI improves predictive model by identifying sensitivity of decisions to people’s understanding of fire risks
• Water Cycle across Scales – plans to use CRCM outputs in spatial scaling of extremes; analysis of future changes in floods and droughts
• Cyberinfrastructure – use of structure to develop distribution system for high-resolution climate scenarios
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Climate Variability and Uncertainty in Flood Hazard Planning
Link between GIS and the Weather and Climate Impact Assessment Initiatives
Mapping rainfall data to help better understand past flooding events along Colorado’s Front Range
Spatial and temporal variability of extreme precipitation events
Good case for spatial statistics
Mary Downton, et al.
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Land Surface / Atmosphere
Interaction
Atmosphere / Soil
Carbon / Nitrogen Cycling
Impacts Assessment
Climate Impacts on
Hydrology
Managed and
Unmanaged
Ecosystems
Biogeosciences Land use/cover
change
ESM
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Initiative Collaboration with the
Wider Research Community
• Significant involvement of university community
• NARCCAP – integration across NCAR, Universities, CCSP, and International Communities (and highlighting CCSM)
• Links with international programs – (e.g., PIK, Tyndall Centre)
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Recent University Participation
• Uncertainty – R. Smith (U. North Carolina); M. Mann (U. Virginia); L. Sloan (UC Santa Cruz); W. Gutowski (Iowa State), P. Duffy (UC Berkeley), A. Cullen (U. Washington), J. Feddema (U. Kansas)
• Extremes – P. Naveau (U. Colorado), E. Gruntfest (U. Colorado), H. Brooks (U. Oklahoma); R. Smith (U. North Carolina)
• Climate and Health – J. Patz (Johns Hopkins); M. Wilson (U. Michigan); J. Mayer (U. Washington)
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NARCCAP North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program
Main Goals:
• Exploration of multiple uncertainties in regional model and global climate model regional projections
• Development of multiple high- resolution regional climate scenarios for use in impacts models
Multiple AOGCM and RCM Climate Scenarios Project over North America
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NARCCAP Domain
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A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL CCSM HadCM3link to European
Prudence
CGCM3
1960-1990 current 2040-2070 futureProvide boundary conditions
MM5Iowa State/PNNL
RegCM3UC Santa CruzICTP
CRCMQuebec,Ouranos
HadRM3Hadley Centre
RSMScripps
WRFNCAR/PNNL
NARCCAP Plan
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Contributions to IPCC AR4
• Tebaldi et al. method being used as the main method for integrating new AOGCM simulation results on regional scale
• WG 1 Technical Support Unit wishes to see other global climate modeling groups perform SRES land cover change experiments similar to WCIAS Initiative
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Linkages with International Community
• Numerous international presentations (Europe, Canada)
• Formal links (MOUs) being established with PIK and the Tyndall Centre
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Educational Components
• Climate and Health Program – continuation of interdisciplinary education program on climate and health – Climate and Health Summer Colloquium (July 21-28, 2004)
• Paleo Project – includes subproject of
Education and Outreach – educational display on paleo climate (see poster)
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Climate and Health Colloquium
Summer 2004 Sessions:
• Climate and Climate Modeling• Climate and Infectious Diseases• Remote Sensing and GIS• Heat Mortality and Air Pollution• Societal Responses, Assessment and Communication
http://www.asp.ucar.edu/colloquium/2004/CH/index.html
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Professional Development:Roles of Early Career Scientists
• Lisa Dilling (ESIG) – AI project manager • Caspar Amman (CGD) – PI of paleo project • Susi Moser and Lisa Dilling (ESIG) –
Leaders of decision-making theme in WCIAS• Claudia Tebaldi (ESIG) – Lead author on key
papers on regional climate probabilities• Dave Yates (RAP) – Key role in hydrology
modeling in uncertainty theme• Rebecca Morss, Olga Wilhelmi (ESIG) – Key
participants in flood project
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Intra-Initiative Learning
• Development of greater interdisciplinarity among the participants in the WCIAS
• This development is an ongoing process
• Catalyzes integration within NCAR
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Initiative Management and Planning
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• Four meetings with interested NCAR staff and several ESIG- specific planning meetings held to develop the three themes (second half of 2000 and first half of 2001)
• Consultation with external collaborators
• Written contributions from core group of interested staff, including all ESIG scientists
• Several document iterations
• One follow-up planning meeting held August 2001
• Several more detailed follow-up planning meetings on individual themes held in September/October 2001
• Initial funding provided in FY 2002 ($214K)
General Planning Process of Assessment Initiative
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Assessment InitiativeFunding by Theme, FY02-FY04
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
$214,6242002
$657,7692003
$683,5562004
Fiscal Year
Fu
nd
ing
Climate &Health
Extremes
Uncertainty
Budget Structure by Theme
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FY02 Assessment InitiativeDivisional Allocation
$214,624
RAP, 29%
ESIG, 71%
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FY03 Assessment InitiativeDivisional Allocation
$657,769
CGD, 17%
GSP, 10%
ESIG, 55%
RAP, 18%
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FY04 Assessment InitiativeDivisional Allocation
$672,000
CGD, 23%
GSP, 10%
ESIG, 50%
RAP, 17%
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WCIAS Leverages Other Funds • NASA, NOAA, NCAR ASP – Climate and Health
$92K total• NSF – Land cover data bases - $170K• HARC – Human dimensions of the Arctic - $60K• NSF – CMG: Development of spatio-temporal
and multi-resolution methods for detection impacts of volcanic and solar forcings in climate – $300K
• NOAA-OGP – Scales of decision-making and the carbon cycle – $285K
• DOE, NSF, NOAA – various amounts for NARCCAP
• GSP program at NCAR – various amounts
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Initiative ManagementL.O.Mearns
Director
K. MillerManaging Wildland Fire Risk
J.MeehlClimate Model Extremes
C. AmmanClimate Variability of Past Centuries
M. DowntonFlood Hazards Planning
R.KatzExtremes Toolkit
B.BrownExtremes in Aviation
G. BonanLand Cover Uncertainties
D. Nychka/D. YatesUncertainty in Model Simulations
Advisory BoardJ. MeehlT.WigleyK.MillerB.BrownR.Morss
D. NychkaActing Dir. 03
Project Leads (11)
H. BrooksDownscaling of Extreme
Phenomena
L. Mearns/J.PatzClimate and Health
L. Dilling Project ManagerV. Holzhauer
- Financial AdministratorJ. Oxelson-Webmaster
R. Haacker-Santos- Admin. Assistant
S. MoserDecision Makingand Uncertainty
MentorsB. Harriss
W. Washington
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Management Activities
• Monthly or bimonthly meetings – – Presentations on project work– Discussions with project advisory board and
leads on project status, integration opportunities across projects
– Individual project meetings – March 2003-March 2004 management
activities lead by Doug Nychka (Acting Director) and L. Dilling (Project Manager)
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The (uncertain) Future
Near and Long-term
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FY05 Selected Plans
• Land Cover – application of CLM/CCSM to SRES land cover scenarios – inclusion of urban area expansion, interactive crop models, soil degradation effects
• Regional Probabilities of Climate Change – bivariate model, spatial correlation, expert judgment of climate modelers for formation of priors, role in IPCC – use in impacts and for decision-making (e.g., UKCIP)
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• Further application of extreme value theory – Analysis of heat waves (i.e., cluster maxima and
length)– Determination of field significance of extremes
– Detecting trends in extremes in observed data
• Changes in extreme sea surface temperatures and effects on coral reef health
FY05 Selected Plans (cont.)
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• NCAR-RISA Collaboration • Presenting Uncertainty to Decision-Makers
(Rand)• Feasibility Limits of Adaptation Strategies to
Sea-Level Rise• Decision-Making at the Climate-Health
Interface• Societal Use of Weather Information• Scales of Decision-Making
– Carbon flux management– Water resource management
FY05 Selected Plans (cont.)Decision-making focus
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Vision – Future Plans
Long term goals (5 years and beyond)– NCAR is recognized as national/international
leader in Integrated Uncertainty Analysis including Decision Making (ISSE)
– NCAR creates a complete, integrated program on extreme events (atmospheric science, statistics, societal vulnerability, decision-making)
– Climate and Health Annual Summer Colloquium becomes world-class program in training students in this interdisciplinary field
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Long-term Vision
The WCIAS Initiative fills a need to bridge between:
– Global/regional modeling/observations and regional assessments
– Physical sciences knowledge and tools, and environmental and social science
– Science/academia and decision-makers
To improve society’s ability to manage weather and climate risks by creating and providing research tools and methods at the critical frontiers of impact assessment science.
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Our Ongoing Commitment • Conduct cutting-edge, innovative research at the
nexus of physical and social sciences
• Build novel partnerships internally and externally
• Maintain NCAR’s high visibility at the regional, national, and international levels to ensure that needs for advancements in assessment science are being met
• Create innovative approaches to orient research in assessment science toward decision-making as a central focus
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Weather and Climate
Impact Assessment
Science
Global Models
Scenarios
Statistics and Physical Sciences
Decision-making
Vulnerability
Regional Assessment
Health and Ecology Inter/national Assessment