trends in higher education: internationally, nationally, state- wide, & locally presentation by:...
TRANSCRIPT
Trends in Higher Education:Internationally, Nationally, State-
wide, & Locally
Presentation by: Dr. Leah L. Bornstein and Dr. Kathleen A. Corak
Coconino Community CollegeStrategic Planning Retreat
September 26, 2007
Theories & Evidence of Global Change Effecting Higher Education
The World is Flat….T. Friedman
Three Billion New Capitalists….C. Prestowitz
The Flight of the Creative Class…R. Florida
The Experience Economy…..B. Pine & J. Gilmore
Etc….
Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults – The U.S. and OECD Countries, 2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Canada
JapanK
oreaS
weden
Belgium
IrelandN
orway
Un
ited S
tates S
painF
rance F
inland
Australia
Denm
ark U
nited Kingdom
Netherlands
IcelandL
uxembourg
Sw
itzerlandN
ew Z
ealand
Greece
Poland
Germ
anyA
ustriaM
exicoH
ungary P
ortugal
Italy S
lovak Republic
Czech R
epublic T
urkey
25 to 3445 to 54
The Aging U.S. Workforce
Year-to-Year Change in U.S. Population, 2002-2020
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
25 to 54
55+
6 to 24
Year-to-Year Change in U.S. Population, 2002-2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Source; Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education
Growth in Demand -
In Arizona, for every 100 ninth graders...
66 graduate from high school
31 enter college
20 are still enrolled by sophomore year
15 of the 100 complete degrees in six years
NCHEMS Information Center, 2002
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
1998 2008 2018 2028
Th
ou
san
ds
Jobs requiring some postsecondary experience Workers with some postsecondary experience
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau and National Alliance of Business
Education Required
Projected Growth in Supply and Demand of Workers With Some Postsecondary Education, 1998 to 2028
Training, tooling and directing the labor force—what community colleges do well—into
knowledge workers.
What are knowledge workers?
… those states that improve opportunities for education and training beyond high school advance their residents' employment prospects and the competitiveness of their overall workforce.
Alan Wagner, Measuring Up Internationally:Developing Skills and Knowledge for the Global Knowledge Economy, National Center for Higher Education and Public Policy, September 2006
Educational Attainment – Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with an Associates Degree or Higher, 2005
48.7
%46
.0%
45.7
%44
.6%
44.2
%44
.0%
43.7
%43
.7%
43.3
%42
.8%
42.4
%41
.7%
41.3
%40
.7%
40.4
%40
.1%
38.9
%38
.8%
38.6
%38
.4%
37.4
%37
.4%
37.4
%37
.3%
37.2
%37
.1%
37.0
%36
.6%
36.4
%36
.1%
36.0
%35
.9%
35.8
%35
.3%
33.9
%33
.7%
33.6
%33
.6%
33.2
%33
.2%
33.0
%31
.8%
31.2
%30
.8%
29.8
%29
.0%
28.6
%28
.5%
26.8
%26
.5%
25.0
%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Colorado
New
JerseyM
innesotaN
ew H
ampshire
Verm
ontM
arylandN
ew Y
orkV
irginiaN
ort h Dakota
Washington
Rhode Isl and
Haw
aiiN
ebraskaIl linoisC
aliforniaU
tahK
ansasS
outh Dakota
Iowa
United S
tatesW
isconsinO
regonM
aineD
elaware
Pennsylvania
Florida
Montana
Alaska
Nort h C
aroli naM
ichiganG
eorgiaA
rizonaW
yoming
IdahoO
hioN
ew M
exicoS
outh Carol ina
Missouri
TexasO
klahoma
IndianaA
labama
TennesseeM
ississippiN
evadaK
entuckyL
ouisianaA
rkansasW
est Virginia
Source: 2005 American Community Survey
Coconino County has relatively high educational attainment -
87.1%
30.2%
83.8%
25.5%
84.1%
27.0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Coconino Arizona U.S.
Percent of 25 Year Old Population by Educational Attainment Level
H.S. Grad
Bach Degree
U.S. Census, 2006
ARIZONA TRENDS:
• College in AZ has become less affordable
Average Family Net College % Income Cost Needed
$12,000 $7127 59%$26,912 $7608 28%$42,946 $8013 19%
Coconino County has a relatively low income level -
$53,642
$55,709
$58,526
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Coconino Arizona U.S.
Median family income (in 2006 inflation-adjusted dollars)
U.S. Census, 2006
State and Local Appropriations for Higher Education Per FTE Student ($), 2005
12,3
5411
,342
9,66
69,
150
8,60
27,
890
7,71
27,
641
7,44
57,
240
6,99
56,
851
6,76
86,
350
6,26
36,
169
6,13
66,
097
5,98
25,
969
5,92
55,
911
5,90
65,
873
5,84
45,
833
5,71
05,
687
5,51
45,
495
5,38
45,
287
5,28
25,
280
5,20
04,
934
4,90
24,
874
4,85
44,
849
4,70
24,
691
4,56
14,
544
4,31
94,
221
4,19
63,
873
3,36
03,
296
3,01
9
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000W
yom
ing
Ala
ska
Haw
aii
Con
nect
icut
New
Jer
sey
Nev
ada
Mas
sach
uset
tsN
ew M
exic
oG
eorg
iaN
ew Y
ork
Nor
th C
arol
ina
Illi
nois
Idah
oD
elaw
are
Tenn
esse
eR
hode
Isl
and
Kan
sas
Wis
cons
inM
aine
Ken
tuck
yA
rizo
naN
ebra
ska
Mis
sour
iW
ashi
ngto
nC
alif
orni
aN
atio
nS
outh
Car
olin
aM
ichi
gan
Pen
nsyl
vani
aM
inne
sota
Texa
sU
tah
Indi
ana
Iow
aL
ouis
iana
Vir
gini
aA
laba
ma
Okl
ahom
aF
lori
daM
issi
ssip
piO
hio
Ark
ansa
sS
outh
Dak
ota
Mar
ylan
dN
orth
Dak
ota
Ore
gon
Wes
t Vir
gini
aM
onta
naC
olor
ado
New
Ham
pshi
reV
erm
ont
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers
STUDENTS ENROLLED IN TWO-YEAR COLLEGES IN ARIZONA IN 2004:
• 217,597 Students or 53% of all Higher Education Enrollments.
Community Colleges are the “College of Choice” for the Majority of Arizonans.
CCC Operates With A Low Tax Rate -
CC Primary Property Tax Rate FY 2007
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Coconino
Maricopa
Mohave
Pima
Navajo
Yavapai
Cochise
Yuma/La Pz
Pinal
Graham
An October 2005 USA Today survey found two of Arizona's three public universities have led the nation in tuition increases since 2002. The University of Arizona (UA) ranked first with a 74.1 percent increase, and Arizona State University (ASU) ranked fourth with a 70.4 percent increase.
If recent history is any indication, average in-state tuition could jump from $4,500 to nearly $10,000--roughly a quarter of a typical Arizona family's annual household income--in just a few years.
Vicki Murray, School Reform News, Date: June 1, 2006
Arizona & Affordability – Focus on Financial Aid
Through 2005-2006 (last year for comparative data) --
Need-based aid: $2.8 million (43rd nationally) 23% increase over ten years (43rd nationally) $8.02 per Undergraduate FTE (49th nationally)
14th of 15 states in the WICHE Region WICHE average: $170 National average: $415
Arizonans rely more heavily on loans: Average loan amount in AZ – $3,762
Average loan amount in top states – $2,619
State investment in need-based financial aid as compared to the federal investment. Arizona/Federal Investment: 0%
Top States/Federal Investment: 89%
Survey Report on State-Sponsored Student Financial Aid, 2006-07, National Association of StateGrant and Aid Program and Measuring Up, 2006, 2006, NCPPHE
To Summarize…..
Increased globalization of workforce Decreased #s of 55+ generation in the workforce Large AZ high school drop out problem coupled with high growth in
Hispanic h. s. grad #s Increased workforce need over next 40 yrs of folks w/ some post-2nd
Disparity in AZ educational attainment compared to County CCC District is high attainment and lower-than-average income AZ appropriations to HE in the upper middle with less support to
community colleges AZ citizens pay increasing % of their income for post-2nd & rely
heavily on loans
In Addition….. National Spellings report focuses on Access, Accountability &
Affordability
So? How does CCC position itself to address these demographics and challenges? How do the demographic shifts in learners effect how we program?
competitively market? competitively recruit?
How do these demographics effect our hiring practices? How do we become more competitive?
W/ AZ low in ed attainment & Coconino County expecting a drop in attainment, how does CCC prepare/respond?
W/ 75% of new jobs requiring some post-2nd & only 35% of US (25-34 yrs) have 2+ yrs of post-2nd, how does CCC respond?
W/ CCC District in low income & current high attainment, how does CCC respond?
How does CCC position itself so that our limited financial resources are maintained and strengthened?
Others?????