2.008x

Conclusion …and the Future of

Manufacturing

MIT 2.008x

Prof. John Hart Department of Mechanical EngineeringLab for Manufacturing and Productivity

at MIT

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Agenda§ Recap of 2.008x§ Manufacturing is a dynamic

global ecosystem§ What is the future of

manufacturing?§ What is your future in

Manufacturing?

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§ Machining§ Injection molding§ Thermoforming§ Sheetmetal forming§ Casting§ Additive manufacturing

§ Forging§ Coatings§ Printing (2D)§ Semiconductors§ …

§ Robotics

§ Mechanical fits§ Joining (e.g.,

welding, adhesives)§ Material handling

and automation

§ Quality and variation§ Cost§ Sustainability

§ Systems§ Metrology§ Logistics and sourcing

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Excerpt from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRwa8msCbP0

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Excerpt from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mA5tkcrkMVASee also the ‘Scorpion’ (solder paste jetting): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZ-Kq2Gkm5Y

High-speed pick-and-place

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- For each unit process, what determines each attribute?- How can we improve any or all? (all are coupled!) - What is “good enough”? Who cares and why?

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Process-shape compatibility

Figure 14.5, M.F. Ashby, Materials Selection in Mechanical Design

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Conclusion:

2 Manufacturing is a dynamic global

ecosystem

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Front-facing camera

Faceplate

Screen (flipped)

Camera Battery

Logic board

Housing

iPhone 6 chassis assembly

Modified from: https://d3nevzfk7ii3be.cloudfront.net/igi/DSCkX6EfcARJYOHa.hug

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2.008xSilicon wafers

Inertial sensors

Tested chips

iPhone

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From http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20101119000102&cid=1102

Foxconn's largest factory worldwide is in Longhua, Shenzhen, where hundreds of thousands of workers (varying counts include 230,000, 300,000, and 450,000) are employed… sometimes referred to as “Foxconn City”. Covering about 1.16 square miles (3 square km), it includes 15 factories, worker dormitories, a swimming pool, a fire brigade, its own television network (Foxconn TV), and a city centre with a grocery store, bank, restaurants, bookstore, and hospital.

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http://joi.ito.com/weblog/2014/09/01/shenzhen-trip-r.htmlhttp://www.ted.com/talks/joi_ito_want_to_innovate_become_a_now_ist#t-20889

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Quantity of loaded freight in international

maritime trade from 1970 to 2014 (million tons)

2,605

9,842

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1970

1980

1990

2000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Qua

ntity

in m

illio

n to

ns lo

aded

Data from http://www.statista.com/statistics/234698/loaded-freight-in-international-maritime-trade-since-1970/

Port of Oakland, CA (December 2014)

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From http://acetool.commerce.gov/labor-costs

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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/25/technology/robotica-cheaper-robots-fewer-workers.htmlhttp://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36376966esia

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Conclusion:

3 What is the future of manufacturing?

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WhatdoesMITfacultythink?

MIT Perspectives

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Advanced Manufacturing: value at scale

2.008x66 B.P. Conner et al. / Additive Manufacturing 1–4 (2014) 64–76

Fig. 2. Three axis model of manufactured products.

single part is produced, tooling and fixturing must be fabricatedresulting in both lead times of weeks or even months and signif-icant investment in tooling costs [8]. Examples of tooling andfixturing include dies for injection molding of plastics or stamp-ing dies for automotive sheet panels. Tooling and fixturing canbe expensive but the costs are amortized over total units of partsproduced (often in millions). The business model for mass man-ufacturing is well established and is primarily cost driven tolower the unit cost of each part and is not value driven (i.e.,lighter weight, greater thermal conduction, anatomical fit, etc.)with higher customization and complexity of each part.

It is very clear that with the existing global pervasivenessof capital equipment for mass manufacturing as well as estab-lished business models and cost structure, products within thisregion should not be fabricated using additive manufacturingdue to their limited complexity and customization. However, asshown in Region 2 there is an opportunity to use AM to fab-ricate the tooling for conventional mass manufacturing whichreduces the lead-time associated with tooling for mass manu-facturing.

2.2. Region 2: manufacturing of the few

This region describes products with limited complexity andcustomization but also in low production volumes. There is nota specific number to distinguish between low and high volume.The Center for Automotive Research defined 30,000 vehiclesper year as the upper bound for low volume production of auto-mobiles [6]. However, in the aerospace sector it is different.In June 2008, the production of F/A-18 Super Hornets stoodat 42 aircraft per year. At that time, its replacement, the F-35Lightning II, was projected to reach 230 aircraft per year by2016 [7]. While such a production volume would not be consid-ered mass manufacturing from an automotive industry or from aconsumer products’ standpoint, for a manned aerospace fighter

this is a large enough volume that it would impact the selec-tion of manufacturing processes and tooling. When using themodel, it is best advised to use the low or high volume definitionthat best suits the industry. For the purpose of this discussion,10,000 parts per year or less is arbitrarily used for regions ofthe map defined as low volume. Tooling and fixturing costsare substantial for low volume production [8]. The lead timesfor tooling and fixturing are often longer than the time to fab-ricate the product itself. Examples of products in this regionwould include product prototypes subsequently mass manufac-tured, high value parts for low volume applications like shipsor satellites, and tooling and fixturing. When fabricated throughconventional processes, complexity is minimized due to the limi-tations of conventional manufacturing processes and/or the needto reduce the number of fabrication steps in order to minimizecost.

The genesis of additive manufacturing occurred in this regionwith the concept of rapid prototyping. The first 3D printingtechnology, stereolithography (a type of vat photopolymeriza-tion), was invented, in part, to support the creation of visualprototypes to support design and marketing. As 3D printingprocesses became more precise (enabling tighter tolerancesfor nesting of parts) and printing materials became strongerand more durable, rapid prototyping evolved beyond visualprototyping to include functional prototypes that can be usedin fully functioning mechanical systems [9]. By eliminatingthe need for tooling and fixturing, these printed prototypesare more cost effective and take far less time (hence “rapid”)than conventionally manufactured prototypes. This reducestime-to-market while ensuring the desired final product func-tionality.

Certainly if one can make functional prototypes using AM,one can also have direct part production. For low volumeproduction of products with minimal part complexity and cus-tomization, the use of AM results in lower cost and reduced leadtimes when compared to conventional methods. For example,Hopkinson and Dickens [10] analyzed the costs of fabricationof a small plastic lever by additive laser sintering, a powderbed fusion technology and conventional injection molding. Thecost model was further refined by Ruffo et al. [11]. Both stud-ies showed that for a production volume less than about 10,000parts, a lower unit cost is realized using laser sintering whencompared to injection molding.

As noted earlier, AM can be used to fabricate tooling and fix-turing for conventional manufacturing processes. By using AM,tooling and fixturing can be more affordable and faster thanconventional means. For example, a method of metal castinginvolves the use of sand for mold walls and cores. Convention-ally, this process is labor intensive and time consuming. A pattern(representative of the part) is fabricated and used to shape thesand mold. The patterns are permanent and must be stored forfuture use. Various pathways and reservoirs for the flow of metalare formed in the sand by hand. Besides being costly, this methodof fabrication limits the design of certain final part geometries.3D binder jetting of sand is being used to fabricate molds andcores eliminating the need for patterns and reducing labor costs[12].

Cube chart from Conner et al. Additive Manufacturing, 2014

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New robotics and augmented workers

Kiva Systems / Amazon Robotics

Rethink Robotics

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jul/04/bmw-3d-prints-new-thumbs-for-factory-workersAlso see: http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-

mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety

http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-tools-turn-manufacturing-workers-into-robo-employees-1465351321

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9KPJlA5yds

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http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/micro-nanosystems/docs/fof-beyond-2013-workshop/westkaemper-manufuture_en.pdf

Industry 1.0 Industry 2.0 Industry 3.0 Industry 4.0

From http://saphanatutorial.com/industry-4-0/

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Advanced MaterialsAdvanced batteries (Tesla,

Panasonic, 24M, others)

3D particles for drug delivery (Liquidia)

Carbon nanotube composites and wires (Nanocomp, Cambridge, others)

Quantum dots in LEDs and TVs (QDVision, Sony, LG, others)

High-strength aluminum (Alcoa)

Carbon fiber composites (Boeing)

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/alcoa-signs-largest-ever-deal-with-boeing-20140911http://www.kinematics.com/about/newsletterarticleboeingandthe787.php

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Waste, sustainability, and the life cycle…

http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/22/11991440/eri-e-waste-electronics-recycling-nyc-gadget-trash?goal=0_997ed6f472-378db09ae5-153914201&mc_cid=378db09ae5&mc_eid=80eb35dc6c

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How do we envision the future of manufacturing?

§ Understand the drivers (pulls) for more and better manufacturing, i.e., more people and limited resources, aging population, labor cost, energy supply/cost, growth in air travel, etc…

§ Project manufacturing-related technology trends (e.g., AM, robotics, software) and their intersections.

§ Forecast how the above will influence how we design and make products in the future, and how business models will evolve.

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Conclusion:

4 What is your future in manufacturing?

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How can your career influence manufacturing (and vice-versa)?§ Work for a company in product design, engineering, or

manufacturing.§ Take part in a startup working anywhere along the design and

manufacturing value chain.§ Create new materials to be manufactured.§ Advise others on how to improve their manufacturing

operations.§ Invent new and/or improved manufacturing processes.§ Help translate designs to scale (e.g., Bolt, Dragon, PCH).§ Work globally to grow the manufacturing infrastructure and

ecosystem.§ …and more!

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Some further readingIBM: The New Software-Defined Supply Chain§ http://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/software-defined-supply-

chain/

Deloitte University Press: The Future of Manufacturing§ http://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/manufacturing/articles/future-of-

manufacturing.html

National Network for Manufacturing Innovation (USA)§ http://manufacturing.gov

Media Sources§ The Economist, e.g.,

§ http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21637355-freelance-workers-available-moments-notice-will-reshape-nature-companies-and

§ http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700758-will-smarter-machines-cause-mass-unemployment-automation-and-anxiety

§ Wall Street Journal, MIT Technology Review, BBC, New York Times§ Spencer Wright’s Blog and Newsletter, ‘The Prepared’

§ http://pencerw.com/the-prepared/§ Blogs by companies including GE, Bolt, Fictiv, PCH, …

URLs active as of June 29, 2016

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The end.

2.008xReferences1 Conclusion

MIT dome in LEGO: photo by Maia Weinstock © MIT.

Industrial smoke stack: photo © Verena J. Matthew on 123rf.com

Video excerpt of hot open die forging: Video Copyright © 2010 Kihlberg Steel AB.

Video excerpt of a high speed pick and place machine © 2016 Essemtec Switzerland

Image of Essemtec Paraquda pick and place machine © 2016 EFY Group

Tabular representation of process cababilities: Figure 14.5 from "Materials Selection in Mechanical Design (4th Edition)" by Michael Ashby; Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann; Copyright © 2016 Knovel Corporation. All rights reserved.

2 Global Ecosystem

iPhone 6: Image © 2000-2016 GSMArena.com

iPhone 6 exploded view © 2016 iFixit

Screenshot of Boston Globe article from November 15, 2015 © 2016 Boston Globe Media Partners, LLC

Analog Devices Inc location on Google Maps, Massachusetts: Photo © Google, Inc.

2.008xReferencesAnalog Devices Satellite/Earth view: Photo © Google, Inc.

Map of the world outlining the shipment of iPhone components: Image by David Niblack, Imagebase.net.

Google map of Shenzhen China: Photo © Google, Inc.

Article Photo by Joi Ito on Flickr. (CC BY) 2.0

Foxconn facility: Photo © RouterUnlock.com

Foxconn factory, New York Times article Photo by Thomas Lee © 2016 Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved

Image of Sony Xperia screens by Joi Ito on Flickr. (CC BY) 2.0

Paragraph excerpt: Content by Joi Ito. (CC BY) 4.

Port of Oakland CA in December 2014 © John Hart

Labor cost indexed to cost of labor in 2000 for select countries: Image from the United States Department of Commerce. This work is in the public domain.

Screen shot of the New York Times article on increasing use of robots from April 24, 2015: Article © 2016 The New York Times Company

2.008xReferencesScreenshot of BBC article regarding Foxconn's venture into robotics, May 25, 2016: Image Copyright © 2016 BBC.

3 Future of Manufacturing

Interview with David E Hart © David E Hardt 2016. Used with permission.

Interview with Larissa Nietner © Larissa Nietner 2016. Used with permission.

Interview with Krystyn Van Vliet © Krystyn Van Vliet 2016. Used with permission.

Interview with Elliot Owen © Elliot Owen 2016. Used with permission.

Glass of water: Image © 2016 - Emergency Preparedness.org

Water desalination facility Photo © F.D.W.A. All Rights reserved.

Tesla: Photo © 2016 Hearst Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

iPhone: Image © Apple Inc.

Potato chip bag: Image on Foolishgadgets.com

Frito-Lay chip production: Photo by Peter Desilva of the New York Times. © 2016 The New York Times Company.

DePuy ASR hip implant: Image © DePuy Synthes 2014-2016. All rights reserved.

2.008xReferencesHip replacement implant schematic: Image Copyright ©1995-2016 by the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons.

Three axis model of manufacturing space/products (Figure 2) and cost of manufactured product as a function of complexity, traditional vs additive manufacutring (Figure 6) from "Making sense of 3-D printing: Creating a map of additive manufacturing products and services" by Conner, et al., Additive Manufacturing (2014). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. or its licensors or contributors

X-ray of child airway and 3D printed airway and stent: Figure 1 from Title: Bioresorbable Airway Splint Created with a Three-Dimensional Printer; Authors: David A. Zopf, Scott J. Hollister, Marc E. Nelson, Richard G. Ohye, Glenn E. Green; Journal: New England Journal of Medicine; Volume: 368; Issue: 21; Year: May 2013; Pages: 2043-2045; Copyright © 2016 Massachusetts Medical Society. All rights reserved.

Google Project Ara scatter phone components: Photo © Google, Inc.

Google Ara phone: Photo © 2016 AOL Inc. All rights reserved.

GE leap fuel nozzle picture Copyright © 2016 Penton

Airbus group bracket EOS AM part: Image © 2016 Business Wire

Rethink Robotics Baxter packaging robot: Image © 2016 NPR

Baxter robot features: Image © 2016 MIT Technology Review

2.008xReferencesRobo-Glove designed to assist outer space workers: Photo by NASA.gov. This work is in the public domain.

KIVA Systems robots in inventory warehouse: Photo by Bryan Badgley of DawghausePhotography. © 2016 Boston Globe Media Partners, LLC

Screenshots of BMW's Augmented Reality project video: Video © Copyright BMW AG, Munich, Germany. All rights reserved.

Pictures of BMW's 3D printed power thumb © Copyright BMW AG, Munich, Germany. All rights reserved.

Four phases of industrialization, industry 4.0 graphic: Image © 2016 : saphanatutorial.com, All rights reserved.

ManuFuture-EU 2013 presentation slide 18, learning machines: Images by MANUFUTURE © Copyright 2004 CNR-ITIA. All rights reserved.

Liquidia PRINT drug particles for aerosol dilivery: Image © 2016 American Chemical Society

SONY Bravia TV: Image © 2016 SONY CORPORATION OF AMERICA

2012 Tesla model S: Image © Copyright 2016, SpiderCars, All Rights Reserved

Nanocomp panels of carbon nanotubes Photo © Andrew Maynard, Arizona State University.

2.008xReferencesElectric motor with windings made of carbon nanotubes: Photo © Dr Krzysztof Koziol, Cambridge University.

Alcoa high-strength aluminum production: Photo Copyright © 2016 Alcoa Inc.

Measurement system for a Boeing 787 nose cone: Photo Copyright © 2016 New River Kinematics

Video of waste pickup from iPhone © John Hart

Images of e-cycling facility and quote from site The Verge: Article © 2016 Vox Media, Inc. All rights reserved.

4 Your Future in Manufacturing

Picture of 2.008 Yo-yo expo in Lobby 7 from Fall 2015 © John Hart

Picture of 3D printed MIT dome in Professor Hart's hands © John Hart