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Conceptual models for the ef fects of
marine pressures on biodivers i ty
D e l i v e r a b l e 1 . 1 .
WP 1 Deliverable 1.1.
LEAD CONTRACTOR
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research
AUTHORS
Chris Smith, (HCMR), Nadia Papadopoulou, (HCMR), Steve Barnard (UHULL), Krysia Mazik (UHULL), Joana Patrício (JRC), Mike Elliott
(UHULL), Oihana Solaun (AZTI), Sally Little (UHULL), Angel Borja (AZTI), Natasha Bhatia (UHULL), Snejana Moncheva (IO-BAS), Sirak
Robele (NILU), K. Can Bizsel (IMST-DEU) Atilla H. Eronat (IMST-DEU).
SUBMISSION DATE
23 | June | 2014
Dissemination level
Public
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Abstract
Conceptual models help draw together, visualise and understand the issues and problems relating to actual
or predicted situations and how they might be solved. In recent years, Pressure-State-Response (P-S-R)
frameworks have been central to conceptualising marine ecosystem risk analysis and risk management
issues and then translating those to stakeholders, environmental managers and researchers. It is axiomatic
that society is concerned about the risks to the natural and human system posed by those pressures (thus
needing risk assessment) and then is required to act to minimise or compensate those risks (as risk
management). This document explores existing conceptual models of pressure-state change and refines
these to produce a new model focusing on the way in which state change arises from the individual to the
ecosystem level. Difficulties are addressed in dealing with cumulative impacts and in particular with
multiple simultaneous pressures, which more often occur in multi-use and multi-user areas. An improved
understanding of the interactions between drivers, pressures and states (or, more particularly, the
pressure-state change (P-S) linkage) is important to help facilitate consideration of possible Responses, but
this is not something that is specifically provided for by application of the DPSIR approach alone (Driver-
Pressure-State-Impact-Response). Assessment tools including matrices assessments, dynamic ecosystem
models and Bayesian Belief Networks are described. The Bow-Tie application is introduced as a marine risk
assessment and risk management tool and the conceptual framework is redefined to incorporate
mechanisms of pressure effect into a new model structure that supports the application of risk
management approaches. In turn, the challenges for moving from conceptual frameworks to assessments
are investigated.
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Contents
ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................ 2
CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................ 3
1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 4 1.1. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: .............................................................................................................................. 6
2. THE DEVELOPMENT OF DPSIR ........................................................................................................... 7 2.1. SINGLE DPSIR CYCLES ............................................................................................................................. 10 2.2. MULTIPLE DPSIRS .................................................................................................................................. 11 2.3. MULTIPLE PRESSURES .............................................................................................................................. 13
3. CONCEPTUAL MODELS ..................................................................................................................... 14 3.1. PRESSURE-STATE CHANGE CONCEPTUAL MODELS ....................................................................................... 14
3.1.1. Research projects ........................................................................................................................ 15 3.1.2. Published Investigations .............................................................................................................. 27
3.2. FROM CONCEPTS TO ASSESSMENTS ........................................................................................................... 39 3.2.1. Simple Matrices Approach .......................................................................................................... 39 3.2.2. Ecosystem Models ....................................................................................................................... 40 3.2.3. Bayesian Belief Networks ............................................................................................................ 41 3.2.4. The BowTie approach .................................................................................................................. 42
4. CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ...................................................................................................................... 44 4.1. CUMULATIVE IMPACTS IN REGIONAL SEA STUDIES........................................................................................ 46
5. DPS CHAINS IN THE MSFD ................................................................................................................ 48
6. DEVOTES CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK .............................................................................................. 52 6.1. REFINED CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF PRESSURE-STATE CHANGE RELATIONSHIPS ..................................................... 52 6.2. THE STATE CHANGE CONCEPTUAL MODEL IN THE CONTEXT OF RISK ASSESSMENT ............................................... 60
7. DATA CHALLENGES IN MOVING FROM CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORKS TO ASSESSMENTS ................... 64 7.1. REGIONAL SEAS ...................................................................................................................................... 64 7.2. DATA AVAILABILITY ................................................................................................................................. 66
7.2.1. Drivers ......................................................................................................................................... 67 7.2.2. Pressures ..................................................................................................................................... 68 7.2.3. State-Change ............................................................................................................................... 68
7.3. ASSESSMENT SCALES AND SCALING UP TO REGIONAL SEAS ............................................................................. 69 7.4. LEVELS OF CONFIDENCE ........................................................................................................................... 69
8. CONCLUDING REMARKS ................................................................................................................... 70
9. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 72
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
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1. Introduction
The marine system is extremely complex with highly interrelated processes acting between its physical,
chemical and biological components. Many diverse human activities exert pressure on this complex
environment and the cumulative environmental effects these activities have on the system varies
according to the intensity, number and spatial and temporal scales of the associated pressures. There is
an increasing need to demonstrate, quantify and predict the effects of human activities on these
interrelated components in space and time (Elliott, 2002). The study and management of marine
systems therefore requires information on the links between these human activities and effects on
structure, functioning and biodiversity, across different regional seas in a changing world.
Determining the cause and consequence of marine problems requires Risk Assessment and the
responses require Risk Management (Cormier et al., 2013). Conceptual models are required to
summarise, explain and address the identified risks. They allow a problem to be deconstructed as a
precursor to each aspect being assessed, prioritised and addressed (Elliott, 2002). In terms of Risk
Management, these models provide the basis for communicating the main message to managers and
developers as well as having an educational value (capturing and relating knowledge about a given
subject matter) (Mylopoulos, 1992). They provide the starting point for developing quantitative and
numerical models, or for indicating the limitation of such models and the available scientific knowledge
(Elliott, 2002).
Conceptual models can be regarded as diagrams which bring together and summarise information from
many areas. Simple to complex diagrams can be used to conceptualise particular issues or problems.
The more components that are drawn in, the more complex the diagrams become leading to what
Elliott (2002) has described as “horrendograms” (Figure 1). These models may describe a process very
aptly but may become very difficult to understand and therefore to model, although all numerical
models start with a conceptual framework on which to base the quantitative thought-process.
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Figure 1. Example of Horrendograms: the environmental consequences of offshore wind power generation at difference stages, processes and responses (from Elliott, 2002)
One of the key current conceptual frameworks in widespread use, the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-
Response (DPSIR) framework, has developed over the last few decades and is used as the basis for the
majority of conceptual approaches addressing pressure-state change links. The DPSIR framework
provides some structure to the way that complex issues can be conceptualised in a standard way.
Currently, however, the DPSIR framework provides an overly simplistic representation of the
relationship between pressures and state changes, merely indicating that pressure leads to state change
(which may not necessarily be the case). It takes no account of the processes (and hence where to
target management), which may lead to state change or of the interaction between different activities
and their associated pressures occurring simultaneously. Furthermore, it does not highlight the
difference in the nature, severity, timescale or longevity of state changes in relation to pressure
intensity, frequency or duration.
Whilst most pressure-state change conceptual models begin to accommodate all of the necessary
information for conceptualising the multidimensional relationships between human activities, pressures
and state changes, there is also a requirement to be able to take model constructs or outputs and use
them to help augment our understanding of the complexity of the marine system. The spatial and
temporal links in the marine system, coupled with the diverse nature of stressors on the systems will
require conceptual models to be linked together and further developed towards numerical and
predictive models.
In particular, an improved understanding of the interactions between drivers, pressures and states (or,
more particularly, the pressure-state change (P-S) linkage) is important to help facilitate consideration of
possible risk management responses.
This document has focussed on the pressures that emanate from activities in a specific area, and takes
the view that pressures are the mechanism to lead to state changes (and impacts on human welfare).
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
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Hence a pressure may be analogous to hazard which has been defined as the cause leading to a risk to
some element of the system. In turn, the risk is the probability of effect (likely consequences) causing a
disaster (as human consequences) (Elliott et al., 2014). Hence risk is often given in terms of assets which
will be affected by the hazard. However, because of this Smith and Petley (2009) consider that hazard,
as a cause, and risk, as a likely consequence, relate especially to humans and their welfare. In the
discussion here, this may be regarded as relating to the Impact (on human Welfare) part of the DPSIR
cycle. Therefore, this emphasises the links between the DPSIR approach and Risk Assessment and Risk
Management.
1.1. Aims and objectives:
This deliverable aims to review conceptual models for pressure-impact links and develop a merged and
refined model which links human activities to effects on ecosystem structure, functioning and
biodiversity. This model aims to be suitable for use in seas across Europe, with differing levels of
available information and data. This review considers an example pressure (abrasion of the sea bed
associated with demersal trawling in sedimentary habitats) and aims to identify the trajectory of
potential state changes at different levels of organisation, acknowledging that this trajectory will be case
specific. This facilitates understanding the way in which state changes in the marine environment arise.
The objectives are:
to investigate the development and review conceptual models that have addressed the
relationship between pressure and state change;
to present a review of the DPSIR framework and derivatives used in coastal and marine
ecosystems;
to demonstrate the complexity of interactions between simultaneously occurring activities and
pressures (multiple DPSIRs) and the complexity of their ability to cause state change
(antagonistic and synergistic interactions);
to review methods which may enable the conceptualisation of such complex interactions;
to present a conceptual model, using demersal trawling as an example, to describe pressure-
state change relationships caused by abrasion in subtidal sedimentary habitats; and
to present that conceptual model in the context of the Risk Assessment and Risk Management
framework.
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2. The Development of DPSIR
The DPSIR framework is a development of the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework initially
proposed by Rapport and Friend (1979), adapted and largely promoted by the Organisation for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for its environmental reporting. The PSR framework
(Figure 2) was based on the concept of causality that human activities exert Pressures on the
environment (marine and terrestrial), which can induce changes in the State/quality of natural
resources. Society Responds to these changes through environmental, governance, economic and
sectoral responses (policies and programmes). Highlighting the cause-effect relationships can help
decision makers and the public see how environmental, economic, societal and other issues are
interconnected. The model was generalised and did not try to specify the form of the interactions
between human activities and the state of the environment. In the early 1990’s, the OECD re-evaluated
the PSR model, whilst initiating work with environmental indicators (OECD, 1993). Its use has been
extended to many countries and international organisations and the PSR framework remains in a
continuous state of evolution (Figure 2). The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA, 1994) extended
the framework to include the effects of changes in state on the environment (pressure-state-
response/effects). UNEP (1994) also took up the framework with development of Pressure-State-
Impact-Response (PSIR) framework.
Figure 2. Pressures-State-Responses framework (OECD, 1993)
The adoption and development of indicators was essential to support the further development of causal
frameworks, allowing for performance evaluation, the setting of thresholds, causal links, and model
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
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based analysis. In its work on sustainable development indicators, the United Nations Commission on
Sustainable Development proposed the Driving Force-State-Response framework (DSR). Here, Driving
force replaced the term pressure in order to accommodate more accurately the addition of social
economic and institutional indicators. It allows for the impact on sustainable development being both
positive and negative as is often the case for social economic and institutional indicators.
In further developments, through agencies such as the European Environmental Agency and EUROSTAT,
the EU adopted and started to use the Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework
(DPSIR), which provides an overall mechanism for analysing environmental problems (Figure 3). The
Driving forces (e.g. social and economic developments) exert Pressures (e.g. pollution), leading to
changes in the State of the environment (e.g. changes in the physico-chemical and biological systems,
nutrients, organic matter, etc.), which then lead to Impacts on humans and ecosystems (e.g. fish
mortality, phytoplankton blooms) that will in turn require a societal Response (e.g. building water
treatment plants). The response can feed back to the driving forces, the pressures, the state or the
impacts directly though adaptation or remedial action (policies, legislation, restrictions, etc.). A fuller
review of the early development of DPSIR can be found through international organisation web
resources, but is well described by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
(http://www.fao.org/nr/lada/?option=com_content&task=view&id=69&Itemid=1) and European
Environment Agency (EEA) (http://ia2dec.ew.eea.europa.eu/knowledge_base/Frameworks/doc101182).
Figure 3. Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response modified from original EU framework (EU, 1999)
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It should be noted that interpretation of DPSIR has been variable, particularly regarding States and
Impacts which are often defined/used differently by natural and social scientists. For example, where
either:
States are State of the Environment and Impacts are physical/chemical/biological changes to
the state of the environment (*1), or
State is State Change (of the environment) and Impacts are the effects on human society and
welfare (*2);
where *1 is a natural science perspective and *2 is a social science perspective.
The lack of clarity of DPSIR definitions led to further re-definition of one element of the model resulting
in the ‘modified DPSIR’ (mDPSIR) of the ELME EU FP6 project (for project details see Section 3.1.1.).
Within mDPSIR the Impact category was restricted to impacts on human systems thus leading in turn to
the definition of the DPSWR framework in the KNOWSEAS FP7 project (for project details see Section
3.1.1.). In this project, Cooper (2013) replaced Impact with Welfare (W, hence DPSWR). However, it has
been suggested that neither I or W fully described the main features given that it is an impact on human
welfare that is important hence using I(W) (Elliott, 2014). Many applications of what is referred to as a
DPSIR approach actually make use of definitions that actually reflect those associated with the DPSWR
model.
This report uses the terminology defined in Box 1 and is based on Borja et al. (2006), Robinson et al.
(2008) and Atkins et al. (2011), with the important proviso that where Impacts are related to natural
ecosystems we have defined this as a State Change.
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
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Within the last 10 years, the core use of DPSIR in a number of EU funded projects, covering a wide range
of issues, has led to clarifications, adaptations and translation into assessments. This is further detailed
in Section 3.1.1.
In another modification, used by social scientists, DPSIR has been related to Goods and Services through
EBM-DPSER where Ecosystem Based Management (EBM) is directly related to Driver-Pressure-State-
Ecosystem Service-Response (Kelble et al., 2012) or the ES&SB (Ecosystem Services and Societal
Benefits) linked DPSIR approach (Atkins et al., 2011). A further development of DPSIR in the area of
health has been the DPSEEA framework comprising Driving forces-Pressures-State-Exposure-Effect-
Action (and sometimes DPSEEAC, where ‘C’ relates to Context), a framework used primarily in risk
assessments for contaminants and developed by the World Health Organisation (Schirnding, 2002). A
further development for creating indicators of children’s environmental health is the MEME framework
(many-exposures many-effects) thus moving from the linear and pollution based view of DPSEEA (and
other) frameworks (Briggs, 2003).
2.1. Single DPSIR Cycles
It is emphasised that the DPSIR framework (as a single cycle) relates to a sectoral Driver, such as the
requirement for food space, navigation, production, etc., and its resulting Pressures. As those occur
BOX 1. D e f i n i n g D P S I R
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Drivers at the highest level, ‘Driving Forces’ are considered to be the overarching economic and social policies of governments, and economic and social goals of those involved in industry. At a mid-level they may be considered to be Sectors in industry (e.g. fishing) and at a lower level, Activities in the sector (e.g. demersal trawling).
Pressure is considered as the mechanism through which an activity has an actual or potential effect on any part of the ecosystem (e.g. for demersal trawling activity, one pressure would be abrasion to the seabed).
State change refers to changes in the ‘State’ of the natural environment which is effected by pressures which cause State Changes to Ecological Characteristics (Environmental variable, Habitats, Species/Groups structural or functional diversity) (e.g. abrasion may cause a decrease in macrofaunal diversity)
Impacts are the effect of State Changes on human health and society, sometimes referred to as welfare, change in welfare is affected by changes in use values and in non-use values (e.g. loss of goods and services from loss of biodiversity).
Response is the societal response to impacts through various policy measures, such as regulations, information and taxes; these can be directed at any other part of the system (e.g. reduction in the number of bottom trawler licenses, the change to a less abrasive gear, or creation of no-fishing areas).
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within an area being managed then they are referred to as Endogenic Managed Pressures in which the
management can address the causes and consequences, such as fishing or navigation (e.g. Elliott, 2011).
However, it should be recognised that the elements in this framework (and their depicted inter-
relationships) do not exist in isolation from the wider environment and that a range of natural pressures
(based on ecology, climate, geomorphology and other dynamic conditions) act on the ecosystem and
may potentially lead to State Change. That is, the area being managed is also subject to external
pressures, i.e. Exogenic Unmanaged Pressures, in which consequences rather than causes are addressed
and where management is required on larger or external scales, such as climate change or nutrient
pollution from catchments.
Whilst a single DPSIR model or cycle represents a vast over-simplification of the ‘real world’, it can
nevertheless be used to help build a conceptual understanding of the relationships between
environmental change, anthropogenic pressures and management options. However, to be of value, the
model does need to be bounded (e.g. Svarstad et al., 2008), for example, by defining the spatial limits
for its application to any particular instance (usually the management unit such as a particular area of
sea or length of coast). Additionally, a simple DPSIR cycle is bounded in conceptual terms, for example,
in terms of the activity or sector to which it applies. Given that all areas are subjected to multiple
Drivers, then there is the need for multiple and nested DPSIR cycles.
2.2. Multiple DPSIRs
The marine environment can be seen as a complex adaptive system (Gibbs and Cole, 2008). In this
context one activity (such as might be represented by a single DPSIR cycle) will inevitably interact with
and impact upon other activities and cannot be fully considered in isolation. For example a reduction in
wild fisheries could have a knock-on effect to aquaculture or the fish from wild fisheries used as
feedstock for aquaculture. Using the DPSIR approach this can most simply be visualised as several
interlinked DPSIR cycles (each representing a different activity or sector which interact together and
demand a share of the available resources).
Atkins et al. (2011) linked separate systems by the Response element, arguing that the effective
management of anthropogenic impacts should be in the form of an integrated action (involving many
types of response) affecting all relevant activities. It is also possible to consider separate DPSIR cycles,
each relating to a different activity, being linked by the Pressures element and reflecting the concept
that a number of different activities can give rise to the same environmental pressure (Figure 4). In a
manner analogous to the graphical presentation used by Atkins et al. (2011), Figure 4 illustrates how a
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
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single Pressure (the central blue circle) provides a common link between five separate DPSIR cycles,
which represent five separate activities. For the sake of clarity, the links within each individual DPSIR
cycle have been simplified (e.g. by omitting the direct R-P link within each cycle and the links between
other D, S, I and R elements for different cycles a la Atkins et al., 2011).
Linking separate DPSIR cycles in this way (Figure 4), and placing Pressure at the heart of the model, has
the advantage of focusing attention on the Pressure as the system element that needs to be managed,
an approach that supports the assessment of pressure-state change linkages. It should be noted that
any such single Pressure may bring about a State change across a number of different ecological
components.
Figure 4. Separate DPSIR cycles linked through a common pressure element.
Having a series of nested and linked DPSIR cycles, and linking those nested DPSIR cycles across
ecosystems, accommodates many pressures within one area (Atkins et al., 2011). It is emphasised that a
nested DPSIR cycle in a near-shore area, for example, has to link with those in the catchments, estuaries
and at sea. This overcomes some of the difficulties in applying the framework to dynamic systems,
cause-consequence relationships, multiple drivers and only linear unidirectional causal chains. The
remainder of this review investigates further the DPSIR concept as a flexible framework to structure
biodiversity impact studies in the marine environment.
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2.3. Multiple pressures
It is recognised that any one driver or activity may cause multiple pressures which, in turn, can cause
multiple state changes. Any framework used to help conceptualise pressure-state change relationships
in the marine environment needs to be able to account for multiple pressures. Consequently the DPSIR
conceptual model framework (Figure 4) would need to be expanded to accommodate multiple
pressures. For example, the different levels in Figure 5 (shown as blue, green and purple circles)
represent different pressures or classes of pressure, P1, P2 and P3 (e.g. abrasion from demersal trawling,
anchoring, dredging; marine litter from fishing, shipping, renewable energy developments; substratum
loss from non-renewable energy development, renewable energy development, dredging etc.) Again,
individual DPSIR cycles are activity-specific. Within this model there would be numerous links between
DPSIR chains across the different levels; for example, where the DPSIR cycle for a single activity is
responsible for a number of different pressures, or where the responses and drivers for one activity
interact with or affect the responses and drivers for a different activity.
Figure 5. Linked DPSIR cycles within and across three separate pressures, P1, P2 and P3.
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
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Whilst this approach begins to accommodate all of the necessary information for conceptualising the
multidimensional relationships between activities and, through their associated and inter-related DPSIR
cycles, the pressures and state changes to which they potentially give rise, there is also a requirement to
be able to take the model constructs or outputs and use them to help augment our understanding of
the (complex) system that is represented. For example, an improved understanding of the interactions
between Drivers, Pressures and States (or, more particularly, the pressure-state change (P-S) linkage)
would help to facilitate consideration of possible Responses. This is not something that is specifically
provided for by application of the DPSIR approach.
3. Conceptual Models
3.1. Pressure-State Change Conceptual Models
Since the DPSIR framework was developed in the late 1990s to structure and organize indicators in a
meaningful way, it has been further applied, discussed and developed. Concentrating on known
concepts, we have carried out a comprehensive but non-exhaustive review of the available literature
concerned with the DPSIR framework its ‘derivatives’ and other related frameworks (Table 1). Box 2
shows the frameworks included in the review and the general components of each model.
The focus of this review is on research projects and publications dealing with coastal and marine
habitats. However, the scope of the analysis is broadened to include both projects and publications that
present or discuss the framework, regardless of its application to specific case studies and studies that
address biodiversity (sensu lato) under the scope of DPSIR.
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3.1.1. Research projects
Table 1 shows the final list of projects that were considered, categorised by “Acronym”, “Title”,
“Duration”, “Funding institution”, “Geographical area”, “General objective” of the project,
“Framework/model type” used, “Keywords”, “Website” and some examples of “Output references”. A
column with additional information gives complementary details for some of the projects. The projects
are listed in alphabetical order.
Since 1999, at least 23-research projects focusing on coastal and marine habitats have used (or are
using) the DPSIR framework and/or derivatives as part of their conceptual development phases. Three
of these projects had a scope beyond coastal and marine ecosystems, aiming to tackle large-scale
environmental risks to biodiversity (e.g. FP6 ALARM), to contribute to the progress of Sustainability
BOX 2. F r a m e w o r k c o m p o n e n t s
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
BPSIR: Behavior - Pressure - State - Impact – Response
DPCER: Driver - Pressure - Chemical state - Ecological state – Response
DPS: Driver - Pressure – State
DPSEA: Driver - Pressure - State - Effect – Action
DPSEEA: Driver - Pressure - State - Exposure - Effect – Action
DPSEEAC: Driver – Pressure – State – Exposure – Effect – Action - Context
DPSI: Driver - Pressure - State – Impact
DPSIR: Driver - Pressure - State - Impact – Response
DPSWR: Driver - Pressure - State (change) - Welfare – Response
DSR: Drivers - State – Response
EBM-DPSER: Ecosystem Based Management/Driver - Pressure - State - Ecosystem service – Response
eDPSEEA: ecosystems-enriched Driver - Pressure - State - Exposure - Effect – Actions
eDPSIR: enhanced Driver - Pressure - State - Impact – Response
mDPSIR: Driver - Pressure - State - Impact – Response
PD: Pressures – Drivers
PSBR: Pressure - State - Benefits – Response
PSIR: Pressure - State - Impact – Response
PSR/E: Pressure - State - Response – Effects
Tetrahedral DPSIR: Driver - Pressure - State - Impact – Response (adapted)
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
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Science (e.g. FP6 THRESHOLDS) and to identify and assess integrated EU climate change policy (e.g. FP7
RESPONSES). They have been included in this review as their findings can extend to the coastal and
marine habitats.
From the considerable number of projects that used the framework or derivatives, only one was the
result of non-European funds. The USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Centre for
Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research supported the MARES project that developed the EMB-DPSER
framework (see Nuttle et al., 2011 and Kelble et al., 2013). This review suggests that DPSIR is a
framework that several European projects have applied and/or developed but is less commonly the case
in non-EU areas.
The research projects that were considered in this review had diversified objectives, for example:
to improve Integrated Coastal Zone Management and planning maritime safety (e.g. BLAST);
integration of climate change into development planning (e.g. CLIMBIZ, RESPONSES, LAGOONS);
to provide a roadmap to sustainable integration of aquaculture and fisheries (e.g. COEXIST);
application of an ecosystem based marine management (ODEMM), the Ecosystem Approach to
management (KNOWSEAS) or to fisheries (e.g. CREAM);
to integrate the marine and human system and assess human activity and its social, economic
and cultural aspects (ELME, KNOWSEAS, VECTORS, ODEMM, DEVOTES);
to support scientifically the implementation of several European directives and legislation (e.g.
ODEMM, LAGOONS, MULINO, SPICOSA, KNOWSEAS, DEVOTES);
to improve the knowledge of how environmental and man-made factors are impacting the
marine ecosystems and are affecting the range of ecosystem goods and services provided (e.g.
VECTORS, ODEMM, DEVOTES, SESAME, LAGOONS);
to produce integrated management tools (e.g. MESMA, ODEMM, DITTY, MULINO, LAGOONS,
DEVOTES);
to look at spatial management and conflicts/synergies/trade offs (MESMA, COEXIST, ODEMM);
to produce threat, risk and pressure assessment (e.g. ODEMM, DEVOTES), and
to produce new biodiversity indicators and Environmental Status assessment tools (e.g.
DEVOTES)
In addition to the scientific context, the role played by the DPSIR framework and/or derivatives also
varied markedly from project to project. ELME, KNOWSEAS, ODEMM, DEVOTES and VECTORS have used
(or are using) the DPSIR framework extensively and some of these projects have developed and further
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modified the framework (e.g. ELME-mDPSIR and KNOWSEAS-DPSWR). However, this review
encountered some difficulties mainly related to access to information. For some projects the website is
no longer active (e.g. DITTY, ELME, EUROCAT, SESAME). In other projects, it has been difficult to find
specific content even with a careful and thorough examination of websites, list of deliverables and
publications. The lack of easy open-access acts as a constraint to apply and explore further the
knowledge gained by the application of the conceptual frameworks.
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
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Table 1. List of research projects that have used or are using DPSIR and/or derivatives as part of their conceptual frameworks.
Acronym Title Duration Funding Area General objectiveFramework/
Model typeKeywords Website
Output
references
(e.g.)
Additional information
ALARM
Assessing large scale
risks for biodiversity
with tested methods
2004-2008 EU - 6FP Europe + others
To develop and test methods for
assessing large-scale
environmental risks to
biodiversity and to evaluate
options to mitigate these risks.
DPSIR
biodiversity,
environmental
risk assessment,
mitigation
measures
http://www.alarmpr
oject.net/alarm/
Hulme 2007,
Maxim et al.
2009
The ALARM project adapted the general DPSIR concept
to biodiversity (Maxim et al. 2009). Social and economic
developments (Driving Forces) exert Pressures on the
environment and, as a consequence, the State of the
environment changes. This leads to Impacts on
ecosystems, human health, and society, which may elicit
a societal Response that feeds back on Driving Forces, on
State or on Impacts via various mitigation, adaptation or
curative actions. The general DPSIR approach was
adapted for the risk assessmet because (i) biodiversity is
complex with many interdependencies; (ii) it is difficult
to consider social or political aspects in the general
approach; (iii) it does not address uncertainties, needed
for scientific applications.
BLASTBringing land and
sea together2009-2012 EU- Interreg
North Sea
region
To improve ICZM and planning
and maritime safety in a broad
sense, by improving and
contributing to harmonising
terrestrial and sea geographical
data, by developing planning and
visualisation tools, and by
improving the safety of
maritime navigation - all in the
context of climate change.
DPSIR
Integrated
coastal zone
management,
maritime safety
www.blast-project.eu
WP6 analysed how the DPSIR model can be used to
describe the role of ICZM under the pressure of climate
change.
CLIMBIZ
Introducing climate
change in the
environmental
strategy of the
protection for the
Black Sea
BSEC Proj.
Dev. Fund
and the
Austrian
Dev. Agency
Black Sea
region
Regional Multilateral
Organizations of the Black Sea
have improved understanding of
and capacities to integrate
climate change into
development planning, while
private sector agents in the
region are better equipped to
contribute to low-carbon and
climate change resilient
development.
DPIVR
climate change
vulnerability and
adaptation,
development
planning, low-
carbon
development
http://www.climbiz.o
rg/1-0-
OVERVIEW.html#.U3
xy7tKSz_E
Hills et al.
2013
The analysis is structured around DPIVR which is a
modification of the DPSIR framework. The DPIVR stands
for: Drivers (D) – major driving forces which characterise
the target area; Pressures (P) – the pressures on the
system caused by climate change; Impacts (I) – the effect
of climate change on the different dimensions of the
region; Vulnerability (V) – the degree to which systems
affected by climate change are susceptible and unable to
cope with climate impacts; Response (R) – management
responses to climate change vulnerabilities. The DPIVR
framework considers economic, social and natural
dimensions.
19
Acronym Title Duration Funding Area General objectiveFramework/
Model typeKeywords Website
Output
references
(e.g.)
Additional information
COEXIST
Interaction in coastal
waters: a roadmap
to sustainable
integration of
aquaculture and
fisheries
2010-2013 EU - FP7 Europe
To provide a roadmap to better
integration, sustainability and
synergies across the diverse
activities taking place in the
European coastal zone.
DPSIR
fisheries,
aquaculture,
coastal
ecosystems,
sustainability
www.coexistproject.e
u
Jongbloed et
al 2011
Case studies reports and factsheets are available online
along with the COEXIST guidance document and
publications. The website also provides info and where
applicable access to the COEXISTdeliverables and tools
that include GIS mapping of activities, to Individual Stress
Level Analysis (ISLA), Analysis of Conflict Scores, models
and suitability maps, and stakeholder preferences.
CREAM
Coordinating
research in support
to application of
ecosystem approach
to fisheries and
management advice
in the
Mediterranean and
Black Seas
2011-2014 EU - FP7Mediterranean
and Black Seas
To set up the basis for a future
network of research
organisations to coordinate
fisheries research for the
effective application of the
Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries
(EAF) in Mediterranean and Black
Seas.
DPSIR
fisheries,
ecosystem
approach,
management
www.cream-fp7.eu
An International Conference on "Ecosystem Approach to
Fisheries in the Mediterranean and BlackSeas" was held
focussing on practical applications and socio-political
recommendations derived from the project. A special
Issue of "Sciencia Marina" (The Ecosystem Approach to
Fisheries in the Mediterranean and Black Seas”; Sci. Mar.
78S1: 2014) with Conference contributions is available
at: http://www.icm.csic.es/scimar/index.php/secId/6/IdNum/196/)
DEVOTES
Development of
innovative tools for
understanding
marine biodiversity
and assessing good
environmental status
2012-2016 EU - FP7 Europe
To improve understanding of
human activities impacts
and variations due to climate
change on marine biodiversity,
to test/integrate indicators into
a unified assessment of the
biodiversity and to look at
innovative modelling tools and
monitoring systems.
DPSIR refined
assessment
tools, marine
biodiversity,
GEnS, MSFD,
ecosystem
services,
indicators,
monitoring,
modelling tools
http://www.devotes-
project.eu/
Smith et al.
2014 (this
Deliverable)
The DPSIR framework is reviewed and DPSWR is
developed under WP1 "Human pressures and climate
change" Task 1.1. "Conceptual models". It is also used
and populated with data/metadata under WP2 "Social-
economic implications for achieving Good Environmental
Status" and WP6 "Integrated Assessment of Biodiversity".
DITTY
Development of an
information
technology tool for
the management of
European Southern
lagoons under the
influence of river-
basin runoff
2003-2006 EU - FP5
Portugal, Spain,
France, Italy
and Greece
To develop the scientific and
operational bases for a sustained
utilisation of resources in
Southern European Lagoons,
taking into account all relevant
impacts that affect the aquatic
environment and developing
targeted information technology
tools.
DPSIR
information
technology tools,
ICZM, coastal
lagoons,
Decision Support
System (DSS)
http://www.dittyproj
ect.org - NOT ACTIVE
Aliaume et al.
2007
The framework was used in WP6 final report - Scenario
Analysis for Coastal Lagoons Management (D19 and
D20).
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
20
Acronym Title Duration Funding Area General objectiveFramework/
Model typeKeywords Website
Output
references
(e.g.)
Additional information
ELME
European lifestyles
and marine
ecosystems.
Exploring challenges
for managing
Europe's seas.
2004-2007 EU - FP6 Europe
Model the consequences of
alternative scenarios for human
development in post-accession
Europe on the marine
environment, through improved
understanding of the relationship
between European lifestyles and
the state of marine ecosystems.
mDPSIR
lifestyles and the
state of marine
ecosystems,
scenarios,
human
development,
policy, social
change
http://www.elme-
eu.org/ - NOT ACTIVE
Langmead et
al. 2007,
2009
ELME was designed to help ensure that emergent
European Union policies take into account the protection
of marine ecosystems and biological diversity. The
approach integrates information on: the current major
state changes affecting Europe’s marine ecosystems; the
pressures (anthropogenic and from natural variability) on
the environment producing these state changes; the
underlying social and economic drivers that lead to these
pressures; and the plausible scenarios for social and
economic change across Europe during the next 2
decades. KNOWSEAS was the follow up from ELME.
EUROCAT
European
catchments.
Catchment changes
and their impact on
the coast
2001-2004 EU - FP5 Europe
1) Identify the impacts on the
coast, 2) Interface biophysical
catchment and coastal models
with socio-economic models, 3)
Develop regional environmental
change scenarios, 4) Link
scenarios with the modelling
toolbox to evaluate plausible
futures and 5) Evaluate the
research outcomes with
stakeholders and policy makers.
DPSIR
water resouces,
river basin
management,
scenarios,
models
http://www.cs.iia.cnr.i
t/EUROCAT/project.ht
m - NOT ACTIVE
Turner et al
2001 (draft
report),
Salomons
2004, Kannen
et al. 2004,
Nunneri and
Hofmann
2005
IASON
International action
for sustainability of
the Mediterranean
and Black Sea
environment
2005-2006 EU - FP6
Mediterranean
and Black Sea
region
To make hitherto inaccessible
knowledge regarding the current
state of the marine and coastal
environment of the
Mediterranean and Black Sea,
available to the scientific
community and the public at
large.
DPSIR
pressures on the
coastal zone,
ecosystem
functioning
www.iasonnet.gr
download
deliverables
here:
http://www.i
asonnet.gr/lib
rary/index.ht
ml
Attention: there is also a FP7 IASON.
KNOWSEAS
Knowledge-based
sustainable
management for
Europe's seas
2009-2013 EU - FP7 Europe
To develop a comprehensive
scientific knowledge base and
practical guidance for the
application of the Ecosystem
Approach to the sustainable
development of Europe’s
regional seas.
DPSWR
ecosystem
approach, costs
and benefits,
sustainable seas,
socio-ecological
systems
modelling,
marine
ecosystem
impacts, marine
resources
www.knowseas.com Cooper 2012
KnowSeas worked at the Regional Sea and Member
State EEZs scale and developed a new approach of
Decision Space Analysis to investigate mismatches of
scale. Knowledge created through the ELME project,
augmented with necessary new studies of climate
effects, fisheries and maritime industries provided a basis
for assessing changes to natural systems and their
human causes. New research examined and modeled
economic and social impacts of changes to ecosystem
goods and services and costs and benefits of various
management options available through existing and
proposed policy instruments.
21
Acronym Title Duration Funding Area General objectiveFramework/
Model typeKeywords Website
Output
references
(e.g.)
Additional information
LAGOONS
Integrated water
resources and
coastal zone
management in
European lagoons in
the context of
climate change
2011-2014 EU - FP7 Europe
To contribute to a science-based
seamless strategy of the
management of lagoons seen
under the land-sea and science-
policy-stakeholder interface; i.e.,
the project seeks to underpin the
integration of the WFD, Habitat
Directive, the EU’s ICZM
Recommendation, and the
MSFD.
DPSIR
lagoons, climate
change,
modelling,
ecosystem
processes, WFD,
science-policy
interface, river
basins
lagoons.web.ua.ptDolbeth et al.
2014
MARE
Marine Research on
Eutrophication - A
Scientific Base for
Cost Effective
measures for the
Baltic
1999-2006
Swedish
Foundation
for Strategic
Env.
Research
Baltic Sea
To develop a user-friendly
decision support system (Nest) in
order to make estimations of
cost-effective measures against
eutrophication of the Baltic Sea
possible.
DPSIR
eutrophication,
coastal
ecosystems,
scenarios,
management,
land-ocean
interactions
http://www.mare.su.s
e/ENG/eng-om/eng-
om.html
Lundberg
2005
MARES
Marine and
Estuarine Goal
Setting
2009-2012
NOAA
Center for
Sponsored
Coastal
Ocean
Research,
USA
USA
To reach a science-based
consensus on the defining
characteristics and fundamental
regulating processes of a South
Florida coastal marine ecosystem
that is both sustainable and
capable of providing the diverse
ecological services upon which
society depends.
DPSER
management,
coastal and
marine
ecosystems,
integrated
ecosystem
models,
indicators,
sustainability
http://sofla-
mares.org/
Nuttle et al.
2011, Kelble
et al. 2013
MESMA
Monitoring and
evaluation of
spatially managed
areas
2009-2013 EU - FP7 Europe
To produce integrated
management tools (concepts,
models and guidelines) for
Monitoring, Evaluation and
implementation of Spatially
Managed marine Areas, based on
European collaboration.
DPSIR
marine spatial
management,
ecosystem based
approach,
planning
strategies,
sustainable
development
www.mesma.orgStelzenmüller
et al. 2013
The MESMA framework was developed in WP2 -
Framework for monitoring and evaluation of Spatially
Managed Areas.
MULINO
Multi-sectoral
integrated and
operational decision
support system for
sustainable use of
water resources at
the catchment scale
2001-2003 EU - FP5 Europe
To develop a methodology that
aims to support the
implementation of the EU WFD.
DPSIR
decision support
system,
catchment areas,
management,
water resources,
tool, WFD
http://siti.feem.it/muli
no/
Giupponi
2002,2007,
Fassio et al.
2005, Mysiak
et al. 2005
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
22
Acronym Title Duration Funding Area General objectiveFramework/
Model typeKeywords Website
Output
references
(e.g.)
Additional information
ODEMM
Options for
delivering ecosystem-
based marine
management
2010-2013 EU - FP7 Europe
To develop a set of fully-costed
ecosystem management options
that would deliver the objectives
of the MSFD, the Habitats
Directive, the EC Blue Book and
the Guidelines for the Integrated
Approach to Maritime Policy. To
produce scientifically-based
operational procedures that
allow for a step by step
transition from the current
fragmented system to fully
integrated mature ecosystem
based marine management.
DPSIR
ecosystem-based
marine
management,
pressure
assessment, risk
assessment, cost-
benefit analysis,
management
strategy
evaluation,
governance,
MSFD, decision
making,
uncertainty,
ecosystem
services
www.liv.ac.uk/odemm
/
Koss et al.
2011, Knights
et al. 2011,
2013
Publications and guidance documents/supporting info
are availbale online on the tools developed including the
pressure assessment guidance and the detailed linkage
framework populating aspects of the DPSIR (e.g. linking
sectors/pressures/ecosystem components and
ecosystem services).
RESPONSES
European responses
to climate change:
deep emissions
reductions and
mainstreaming of
mitigation and
adaptation
2010 -
2013EU - FP7 Europe
To identify integrated EU climate-
change policy responses that
achieve ambitious mitigation and
environmental targets and, at
the same time, reduce the
Union's vulnerability to
inevitable climate-change
impacts.
DPSIR
climate change
mitigation and
adaptation,
strategic climate
assessment
approach
http://www.responses
project.eu/
Meller et al,
2012 (D5.2)
The ALARM-work was useful for the RESPONSES
framework (see above).
SESAME
Southern European
seas: assessing and
modelling ecosystem
changes
2007-2011 EU - FP6
Mediterranean
and Black Sea
region
To assess and predict changes in
the Mediterranean and Black Sea
ecosystems as well as changes in
the ability of these ecosystems
to provide goods and services.
DPSIR
ecosystem goods
and services,
global change,
ecosystem
variability
http://www.sesame-
ip.eu/ - NOT ACTIVE
The ongoing project Policy-oriented marine
Environmental Research for the Southern European Seas
(PERSEUS) is a research project that assesses the dual
impact of human activity and natural pressures on the
Mediterranean and Black Seas. http://www.perseus-
net.eu/ PERSEUS was the follow up project from
SESAME.
SPICOSA
Science and policy
integration for
coastal system
assessment
2007-2011 EU - FP6 Europe
To develop and test a self-
evolving, operational research
approach framework for the
assessment of policy options for
the sustainable management of
coastal zone systems.
DPSIR
sustainable
management,
coastal zone,
policy options,
System
Approach
Framework,
science-policy
interface, ICZM
http://www.spicosa.eu
/Gari, 2010
23
Acronym Title Duration Funding Area General objectiveFramework/
Model typeKeywords Website
Output
references
(e.g.)
Additional information
TIDETidal river
development2010-2013 EU Interreg
North Sea region
estuaries
To help make integrated
management and planning a
reality in the Elbe, Weser,
Scheldt and Humber estuaries.
DPSIR
integrated
estuarine
management
and planning
http://www.tide-
project.eu/
Atkins et al.
2011b
TIDE took into account the ecological, economical and
societal needs of the regions involved and interlinked the
multiple processes and large scale efforts taking place in
the estuaries. TIDE integrated the knowledge and
solutions generated by previous projects such as
HARBASINS, SedNet and New!Delta and existing
management plans required by EU directives.
THRESHOLDS
Thresholds of
environmental
sustainability
2005-2010 EU - FP6 Europe
To bridge the gap between
Science and Sustainability
Policies through the
establishment of a policy
formulation mechanism based
on: a) a target setting process
driven by novel scientific
knowledge on environmental
sustainability indicator
thresholds, b) the assessment of
socio-economic costs and
impacts associated to such
targets and c) an integrated
assessment model leading to the
identification of the most cost-
effective abatement measures to
maintain sustainability.
DPSIR
sustainability,
indicator
thresholds,
coastal
ecosystems,
socio-economic
assessment,
policy support
http://www.threshold
s-eu.org
Thresholds
Report No.
D6.2.5, 2007
The THRESHOLDS IP will develop generic tools but will
apply them to the specific case of coastal ecosystems.
VECTORS
Vectors of change in
oceans and seas
marine life, impact
on economic sectors
2011-2015 EU - FP7
Europe (North
Sea, Baltic and
Western
Mediterranean)
To improve our understanding of
how environmental and man-
made factors are impacting
marine ecosystems now and in
the future. To examine how
these changes will affect the
range of goods and services
provided by the oceans, the
ensuing socio-economic impacts
and some of the measures that
could be developed to reduce or
adapt to these changes.
DPSIR
marine
management,
database of
genetic material
of invasive and
outbreak
species, tourism,
AquaNIS
www.marine-
vectores.eu
Vugteveen et
al. 2014
To facilitate integrated assessment of human and
ecosystem health and ecosystem service provision
VECTORS also produced a new DPSIR based conceptual
model, the eco- systems-enriched Drivers, Pressures,
State, Exposure, Effects, Actions or ‘eDPSEEA’ model (Reis
et al 2014). Their model recognizes convergence
between the concept of ecosystems services which
provides a human health and well-being slant to the
value of ecosystems while equally emphasizing the
health of the environment.
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
24
Focus should be drawn to a number of key EU funded projects because of their application of the DPSIR
conceptual framework in the marine environment and how they have taken, adopted and/or adapted
the framework going into assessments with towards a clear and standardised process.
The ELME project (European Lifestyles and the Marine Environment) investigated marine environmental
problems, their connectivity with social and economic causes, and alternative future policy options.
ELME adopted the DPSIR framework to organize information related to regional seas case study
environmental issues with impacts relating to human welfare although the project did not consider the
Response component of the framework. One of the key aspects was the identification of environmental
linkages through use of expert groups. The conceptual models represented the linkages (sectoral
drivers, pressures, states) identified for Bayesian modelling for future impacts under plausible 2025
scenarios. ELME was important as noted in Section 2 for developing the ‘modified DPSIR’, bringing a
structure to horrendograms or pressure linkages (see Figure 6 an example of the Black Sea conceptual
model) and for incorporating exogenous climatic variables along with normally stated endogenous
anthropogenic drivers.
Figure 6. ELME Black Sea conceptual model with the simulation model embedded within it (red arrows show pathways between variables included in the simulation model, while grey arrows indicate where linkages were made conceptually but were not included). Yellow indicates anthropogenic driver variables; blue indicates exogenous climatic driver variables; purple indicates pressures, while green indicates ecological state variables.
25
The KNOWSEAS project, a follow-up to ELME concerned the Ecosystem Approach to Management and
the development of a strong systems approach between natural (environment) and social science
(economic and social data) that could deliver the knowledge base to support management for
sustainable seas. KNOWSEAS took forward mDPSIR to the DPSWR conceptual approach, because of
definition uncertainty and difficulties with the underpinning concepts of the EEA categorization (EEA,
1999). The DPSWR framework isolated human system aspects of the interaction with ecological systems,
enabling a direct comparison of the sort required by cost-benefit analysis. This reconfiguration also
supported accountability within human systems. By isolating human from environmental impacts it is
possible to describe which of these and to what extent they are attributable to those who perform
Driver activities (Cooper, 2012).
With the implementation of latest environmental framework directives, the ODEMM project was set up
to investigate and quantitatively evaluate, specify and propose options and actions for a gradual
transition from fragmented management of activities (e.g. fish stock based regime for fisheries
management) to a mature integrated ecosystem-based approach management. Scientifically-based
operational procedures were used, with pressure-impact linkages, building on the DPSIR assessment
approach, which systematically organised information to assess threats and help prioritize management
actions. In terms of methodology, the ODEMM project produced a very structured DPSIR-based linkage
framework matrix approach (Koss et al., 2011) with rigorous definition and pressure (Knights et al.,
2011; Robinson and Knights, 2011) and risk assessments (Breen et al., 2012; Knights et al., 2014 subm).
Regional sea pressure assessments were undertaken which considered standardised lists with 19 marine
Sector/105 related Activities (including for example, different types of fishing or phases of operations of
renewable energy activities), 21-25 pressures (18 taken from the Marine Strategy Framework Directive
(MSFD; EU, 2008) plus other emergent or current threats identified by ODEMM), and 17 ecological
characteristics (physical chemical features, habitats, and biotic groups). This 3-way matrix resulted in
7066 activity-pressure-impact chains, where impact is synonymous with state change, (Knights et al.,
2013). Of these, 1462 individual chains were identified as having the potential for detrimental effects on
the ecosystem and its characteristics. Concerning only Descriptor 4 of the MSFD (Food Webs), there
were more than 700 causal chains. Ecological characteristics assessed were at high group levels (and not
the more detailed MSFD/DEVOTES habitats and taxa) and analyses did not consider links between
ecological characteristics. Figure 7 shows an example of the linkages of the Renewable Energy Sector are
given for pressures on ecological components on specific MSFD descriptor and the linkage of the sector
with economic and socio-cultural societal components.
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
26
Figure 7. Example of Sector-Pressure-Ecological Component linkage for how the Renewable Energy Sector (yellow) exerts multiple pressures (green) on to one Ecological Characteristic (blue), Predominant Habitat Type. This influences the ability to achieve Good Environmental Status for the MSFD Descriptor Seafloor Integrity (brown). From ODEMM project, Knights et al. (2011).
The COEXIST project, investigating the interaction in coastal waters between aquaculture and fisheries
using a DPSIR approach for spatial management, paralleled ODEMM producing standardised lists of
Sector/Activities (15), pressures (25) and ecological components (7) in 6 regional and local study areas
with matrices-based assessments (Jongbloed et al., 2011).
The VECTORS project is another complete integrated multidisciplinary project encompassing natural and
social sciences working towards future environmental requirements, policies and regulations across
multiple sectors. The project structure was modelled on the DPSIR framework with individual
workpackages on pressures, mechanisms, impacts, projection of impacts, all with socio-economic
considerations (including governance and policy). As the title (Vectors of Change in Oceans and Seas
Marine Life, Impact on Economic Sectors) implies, there is some degree of emphasis on vectors of
change and in particular on causes and consequences of invasive alien species, outbreak forming
species, and changes in fish distribution and productivity. To facilitate integrated assessment of human
and ecosystem health and ecosystem service provision VECTORS propose a new DPSIR based conceptual
model, the ecosystems-enriched Drivers, Pressures, State, Exposure, Effects, Actions or ‘eDPSEEA’ model
(Reis et al., 2014). Their model recognizes convergence between the concept of ecosystems services
27
which provides a human health and well-being slant to the value of ecosystems while equally
emphasizing the health of the environment.
3.1.2. Published Investigations
The 126 studies analysed are available in different publication formats: research papers, review papers,
essays, short communications, view point papers, seminar papers, discussion papers, journal editorials,
policy briefs, conference long abstracts, monographs, technical reports, manuals, synthesis or final
project reports and book chapters (see Table 2).
The studies were collated and each reference was categorised by ‘Study site’, ‘Habitat’, ‘Region’,
‘Framework/Model type’, ‘Issue/problem tackled’, ‘Implementation level’ and ‘Type of publication’. The
complete references are given in Section 8. Table 2 presents the final list of references and their
classification according to the previous categories. The order of the references in the table is grouped
first by habitat (marine, coastal, etc.) then within habitat by implementation level (applied, conceptual,
conceptual and applied).
Despite the popularity that the DPSIR framework and derivative models have gained in the last twenty
years among the scientific community, and the recommendations of OECD (1993), EPA (1994), EEA
(1999) and EU (1999) for its application, rather few studies have focused on the marine habitat. From
our comprehensive review, only 21 studies cover exclusively this habitat and from these only 8 illustrate
a concrete case study (German Exclusive Economic Zone (Fock et al., 2011); German waters of the North
Sea (Gimpel et al., 2013); Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea and North East Atlantic Ocean
(Langmead et al., 2007; 2009); Baltic Sea (Andrulewicz, 2005); North and Baltic Sea (Sundblad et al.,
2014); Northwestern part of the North Sea (Tett et al., 2013) and Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas (Kelble
et al., 2013)). The remaining 14 studies are either explicitly conceptual or illustrate the framework with
generic situations/issues. For example, Elliott (2002) examined offshore wind power and Ojeda-Martinez
et al. (2009) studied the management of marine protected areas.
Adding to the studies exclusively focussing on marine habitats, there are 17 other studies that focus
simultaneously on marine and coastal habitats (12 of them applied), covering the Mediterranean region
(Casazza et al., 2002), Portuguese marine and coastal waters (Henriques et al., 2008), German North Sea
(Lange et al., 2010), West coast of Schleswig-Holstein (Licht-Eggert, 2007), Baltic Sea (Lundberg, 2005,
Ness et al., 2010), Dutch Wadden Sea region (Vugteveen et al., 2014), UK waters (Rogers and
Greenaway 2005, Atkins et al., 2011) and the North East Atlantic (Turner et al., 2010).
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
28
Approximately half of the references focus explicitly on coastal habitats (e.g. estuaries, coastal lagoons,
entire basins), and half of these are concrete case studies where to a certain extent the DPSIR
framework or derivatives where applied. The framework has been used with very different purposes, for
example:
assessment of eutrophication (e.g. Lundberg, 2005; Rovira and Pardo, 2006; Bricker et al., 2003;
Cave et al., 2003; Pirrone et al., 2005; Gari, 2010; Garmendia et al., 2012; Newton et al., 2003;
Trombino et al., 2007; Zaldivar et al., 2008; Karageorgis et al., 2005; Nunneri and Hofmann,
2005);
development and selection of indicators (e.g. Bell, 2012; EPA, 2008; Bowen and Riley, 2003);
assessment of the impact and vulnerabilities of climate change (e.g. Hills et al., 2013; Holman et
al., 2005);
fisheries and/or aquaculture management (e.g. Henriques et al., 2008; Hoff et al., 2008 in
Turner et al., 2010; Martins et al., 2012; Rudd, 2004; Knudsen et al., 2010; Mangi et al., 2007;
Marinov et al., 2007; Ou and Liu, 2010; Viaroli et al., 2007; Cranford et al., 2012);
integrated coastal management (e.g. EEA, 1999; Licht-Eggert, 2007; Mateus and Campuzano,
2008; Vugteveen et al., 2014; Turner et al., 1998b, 2010; Schernewski, 2008; Vacchi et al., 2007);
management of marine aggregates (e.g. Atkins et al., 2011; Cooper et al., 2013);
assessment of seagrass decline (e.g. Azevedo et al., 2013);
management of water resources (e.g. Giupponi, 2002, 2007; Mysiak et al., 2005);
assessment of wind farming consequences (e.g. Lange et al., 2010).
The remaining references (25) are not habitat-specific, most of them being conceptual by nature (i.e.
defining or reviewing the frameworks, using DPSIR as reporting outline or as framework for selecting
environmental indicators, assessing biodiversity loss, etc.).
It is also of note that 70% of the publications refer to the use of DPSIR and derivatives as frameworks for
issue framing, for gaining greater understanding, as a research tool, for capturing and communicating
complex relationships, as a tool for stakeholder engagement, as the subject of reviews and as the
subject for further tool/methodology development linked to policy making and decision support
systems. For example, Cormier et al. (2013), using Canadian and European approaches, emphasised
DPSIR as a Risk Assessment and Risk Management framework and recommends that ICES uses this as
their underlying rationale for assessing single and multiple pressures.
This review shows clearly that the DPSIR framework and its extensions have mainly been used in the
European context, with only 18 % of the studies being performed in other regions of the world (e.g. EPA,
29
1994, 2008; Kelble et al., 2013 and Bricker et al., 2003, in the USA; Bidone and Lacerda, 2004 in South
America; Lin et al., 2007; Ou and Liu 2010; Turner et al. 1998a in Asia; Mangi et al., 2007; Scheren et al.,
2004; Walmsley, 2002 in Africa; Cox et al., 2004 in Australia).
It can be seen from the reviews above that there is a widespread and increasing usage of DPSIR type
conceptual framework models in management and issue resolving. However, their usage in fully marine
habitats was noted to be low. The variety of derivatives that have come directly through the original DPS
chains or DPSIR, indicates that usage is widely open to re-interpretation and our experience has shown
that even within DPSIR there is a high degree in variation with how the major components are
interpreted or defined. It thus becomes necessary to define how it is used in every study otherwise
there is great confusion in whether a component is ascribed to driver/pressure, pressure/state or
state/impact. The recent development within and between recent EU funded projects has helped to
standardise definitions and component lists and has given a more rigid structure in starting from
concept and moving to assessments, even though they may have used different definitions. The existing
models are good for depicting the relationships between activities/sectors/pressures and the
habitat/biological component that might be affected (or have its state changed) but there are none that
actually address state change, what it is or how it arises. The science behind assessments is still
advancing as new knowledge becomes available, but it still has it has to deal with ecosystems that are all
complex, and where pressure-effect relationships on ecosystem components and interrelationships
between these components are not fully understood. This complexity is further highlighted by the
7000+ regional seas activity-pressure-impacts (impact=state change) chains identified from the ODEMM
project (see previous section) with state change components only identified at a very gross level.
Consequently whilst DPSIR provides a very strong concept, there is room for much more development in
refining the concept, methodologies and applications.
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
30
Table 2. Reference investigations concerned with DPSIR framework and derivatives (grouped by “habitat” – 1st level and by “implementation level” – 2nd level)).
Reference Study site Habitat RegionFramework/
Model typeIssue/problem
Implementation
level
Type of
publication
Fock et al. 2011 German EEZ Marine Europe PSR
Linking marine fisheries to
environmental objectives (seafloor
integrity)
Applied Research paper
Gimpel et al. 2013German waters of the
North SeaMarine Europe DPSI Assessing changes in nursery grounds Applied Research paper
Langmead et al. 2007
Baltic Sea, Black Sea,
Mediterranean Sea and
North-East Atlantic
Marine Europe mDPSIR
Organising information relating to
habitat change, eutrophication,
chemical pollution and fishing
Applied Final project report
Langmead et al. 2009Northwestern Black Sea
shelfMarine Europe DPSIR
Modelling the consequences of
alternative scenarios of human
development
Applied Research paper
Andrulewicz 2005 Baltic Sea Marine Europe DPSIRDeveloping indicators for management
of human impact
Conceptual and
AppliedBook chapter
Kelble et al. 2013Florida Keys and Dry
Tortugas, USAMarine North America EBM-DPSER Informing management decisions
Conceptual and
AppliedResearch paper
Sundblad et al. 2014North and Baltic seas,
SweedenMarine Europe BPSIR
Framework for structuring the social
information that can play an important
role in MSFD implementation (case
studies: phosphorous load, mercury
load and cod fishery)
Conceptual and
AppliedResearch paper
Tett et al. 2013Northwestern part of the
North SeaMarine Europe DPSIR + other
Framework for understanding marine
ecosystem health
Conceptual and
AppliedReview paper
Atkins et al. 2011a - Marine - DPSIRGeneral management of the marine
environmentConceptual Research paper
Cooper 2013 - Marine Europe DPSWR
Defining the DPSWR framework and
comment on its application to marine
systems
Conceptual Research paper
Curtin and Prellezo 2010 - Marine - DPSIR & PSRHelp management to form
sustainability indicators (EBM)Conceptual Review paper
Elliott 2002 - Marine - DPSIR Management of offshore wind power Conceptual Journal editorial
Elliott et al. 2006 - Marine Europe DPSIR
Management approach for marine
environment (i.e. framework to explain
the causes and consequences of state
change in the marine environment)
Conceptual Technical report
31
Reference Study site Habitat RegionFramework/
Model typeIssue/problem
Implementation
level
Type of
publication
Elliott 2011 - Marine - DPSIR
Philosophy for tackling and
communicating methods of marine
management
Conceptual Journal editorial
Fehling 2009 - Marine - DPSIREnvironmental assessment and
monitoring managementConceptual Seminar paper
Kannen and Bukhard 2009 German North Sea Marine Europe DPSIR
Integrated assessment of coastal and
marine changes (e.g. offshore wind
farms)
Conceptual Research paper
Knights et al. 2013 - Marine Europe DPSIR
Build an integrated network that
captures the diverse and complex
range of sector activities that through
pressure pathways impact marine
ecosystems, i.e. methodology
development to support ecosystem-
based management
Conceptual Research paper
Ojeda-Martínez et al. 2009 - Marine - DPSIRManagement of marine protected
areasConceptual Research paper
Rapport and Hildén 2013 Baltic Sea Marine Europe PSR Effectiveneness of ecological indicators Conceptual Research paper
Rees et al. 2006 UK waters Marine Europe DPSIR
Use of indicators in international
evaluations under the ‘DPSIR’
framework
Conceptual Review paper
Stelzenmüller et al. 2013 - Marine Europe DPSIR & PSR Monitoring and evaluation of spatially
managed areas (ecosystem based
marine management)
Conceptual Research paper
Casazza et al. 2002 Mediterranean region Marine and CoastalMediterranean
regionDPSIR
Selection of indicators for
environmental analysisApplied Research paper
EEA 1999 - Marine and CoastalMediterranean
regionDPSIR
Report marine and coastal
managementApplied Technical report
Henriques et al. 2008Portuguese marine and
coastal watersMarine and Coastal Europe DPSIR
Development of a fish-based
multimetric index toassess ecological
quality of marine habitats
Applied Research paper
Hills et al. 2013 - Marine and Coastal Black Sea DPIVR
Assessment of the impact and
vulnerabilities associated with climate
change
Applied Technical report
Lange et al. 2010 German North Sea Marine and Coastal Europe DPSIRAnalyzing coastal and marine changes -
offshore wind farmingApplied Synthesis Report
Licht-Eggert 2007West coast of Schleswig-
Holstein (North Sea)Marine and Coastal Europe DPSIR
Scenarios as a tool for integrated
assessment of potential coastal
developments
Applied Research paper
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
32
Reference Study site Habitat RegionFramework/
Model typeIssue/problem
Implementation
level
Type of
publication
Lundberg 2005 Baltic Sea Marine and Coastal Europe DPSIRDevelopment of a conceptual model to
describe eutrophicationApplied Research paper
Vugteveen et al. 2014 Dutch Wadden Sea region Marine and Coastal Europe PSBRMonitoring for integrated coastal
managementApplied Research paper
Ness et al. 2010 Baltic Sea Marine and Coastal Europe DPSIR
Understanding and assessment of
complex understanding issues (e.g.
eutrophication)
Conceptual and
AppliedResearch paper
Rogers and Greenaway 2005 UK Marine and Coastal Europe DPSIRAssessment and reporting of marine
ecosystem indicators
Conceptual and
AppliedViewpoint paper
Turner et al. 2010 North East Atlantic Marine and Coastal Europe DPSIR
Integrate natural and socio-economic
science in coastal management (e.g.
Hoff et al. 2008: fisheries in the North
East Atlantic)
Conceptual and
AppliedTechnical report
Atkins et al. 2011b
UK waters (e.g. Eastern
English Channel) and
Flamborough Head, UK
Marine and Coastal Europe DPSIRMarine aggregates extraction and
management of biodiversity
Conceptual and
AppliedResearch paper
Borja et al. 2010 - Marine and Coastal Europe DPSIRExplain and communicate marine and
coastal managementConceptual Research paper
Cormier et al. 2013 - Marine and Coastal - DPSIRMarine and coastal ecosystem-based
risk managementConceptual Technical report
Martins et al. 2012 - Marine and Coastal - DPSIR Fisheries management Conceptual Review paper
Rovira and Pardo 2006 - Marine and Coastal Europe DPSIRAssessment of eutrophication and
indicatorsConceptual Research paper
Rudd 2004 - Marine and Coastal - PSR + others
Design and monitor ecosystem-based
fisheries management policy
experiments
Conceptual Research paper
Aubry and Elliott 2006 Humber estuary, UK Coastal Europe DPSIRAssessment of seabed disturbance and
use of integrative indicatorsApplied Research paper
Azevedo et al. 2013 Ria de Aveiro, Portugal Coastal Europe DPSIR Assessment of seagrass decline Applied Research paper
Bidone and Lacerda, 2004Guanabara Bay basin, Rio
de Janeiro, BrazilCoastal South America DPSIR
Evaluate development and
sustainability in coastal zonesApplied Research paper
Borja et al. 2006Basque estuaries and
coastal watersCoastal Europe DPSIR
Assessing pressures and risk of failing
good ecological status (WFD)Applied Research paper
33
Reference Study site Habitat RegionFramework/
Model typeIssue/problem
Implementation
level
Type of
publication
Bricker et al. 2003
138 estuaries in the
continental USA + Long
Island Sound, Neuse River
estuary, Savannah River
estuary, Florida Bay, West
Mississippi Sound, Tagus
estuary, Sado Estuary
Coastal USA, Europe PSRAssessment of estuarine trophic status
(i.e. eutrophication)Applied Research paper
Cave et al. 2003 Humber estuary, UK Coastal Europe DPSIR
Assessment of fluxes of nutrients and
contaminants to the coastal zone (i.e.
water quality)
Applied Research paper
Cooper et al. 2013 Thames estuary, UK Coastal Europe DPSIRManagement of marine aggregates
extraction industryApplied Research paper
Dolbeth et al. 2014
Ria de Aveiro, Portugal;
Mar Menor, Spain; Vistula
Lagoon, Poland/Russia;
Tylygulskyi Lagoon,
Ukraine
Coastal Europe DPSIRPropose management
recommendationsApplied Oral presentation
Gari 2010 Ria Formosa, Portugal Coastal Europe DPSIR Management of eutrophication Applied MSc Thesis
Garmendia et al. 201214 Basque country
estuariesCoastal Europe DPSIR Management of eutrophication Applied Research paper
Karageorgis et al. 2006Inner Thermaikos Gulf,
GreeceCoastal Europe DPSIR
Evaluation of long run coastal zone
changesApplied Research paper
Knudsen et al. 2010Samsun, Black Sea coast of
TurkeyCoastal Europe DPSIR
Identification of drivers for fishing
pressureApplied Research paper
Lin et al. 2007Xiamen coastal wetlands,
ChinaCoastal Asia DPSIR
Assessment of the coastal wetland
changesApplied Research paper
Mangi et al. 2007 Kenya Coastal Africa DPSIR Reef fisheries management Applied Research paper
Marinov et al. 2007Sacca di Goro, Northern
Adriatic Sea, ItalyCoastal Europe DPSIR
Assessment of clam farming
(modelling)Applied Research paper
Newton et al. 2003Ria Formosa coastal
lagoon, PortugalCoastal Europe DPSIR Assessment of eutrophication Applied Research paper
Newton et al. 2014
Bassin d'Arcachon,
Curonian lagoon, Etang
Thau, Logarou, Mar Menor,
Odra lagoon, Papas, Ria
Formosa, Ringkøbing Fjord,
Sacca di Goro, Venice
lagoon
Coastal Europe DPSIRAssessment of environmental
problemsApplied Research paper
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
34
Reference Study site Habitat RegionFramework/
Model typeIssue/problem
Implementation
level
Type of
publication
Nunneri et al. 2005
Baltic Sea, Mediterranean,
North Sea and Atlantic
coast
Coastal Europe DPSIR
Scenario assessment to provide an
outline forward look at the European
coastal areas
Applied Group report
Ou and Liu 2010 Gungliau, Taiwan Coastal Asia PSRDevelopment of sustainable indicators
for local fisheriesApplied Research paper
Pinto et al. 2013 Mondego estuary, Portugal Coastal Europe DPSIR
Assessment, organisation and
communication of major changes in
water uses
Applied Research paper
Scheren et al. 2004 Ebrié lagoon, Ivory Coast Coastal West Africa DPSIR Environmental pollution assessment Applied Research paper
Schernewski 2008 Oder/Odra estuary Coastal Europe DPSIR Coastal management Applied Research paper
Trombino et al. 2007Po basin-North Adriatic
coastal continuumCoastal Europe DPSIR Assessment of eutrophication Applied Research paper
Turner et al. 1998b UK coast Coastal Europe PSIR
Analyse environmental and socio-
economic changes (coastal
management for sustainable
development)
Applied Research paper
Vacchi et al. 2014Ligurian coastline and
MPA, ItalyCoastal Europe DPSIR
Spatial modelling for coastal
managementApplied Review paper
Viaroli et al. 2007 Sacca di Goro lagoon, Italy Coastal Europe DPSIR Analysis of clam farming scenarios Applied Research paper
Aliaume et al. 2007
Ria Formosa, Portugal; Mar
Menor, Spain; Etang de
Thau, France; Sacca di
Goro, Italy; Gulf of Gera,
Greece
Coastal Europe DPSIR
Facilitate the integration of scientific
issues with needs of end-users and
define the modelling input-outputs
Conceptual and
AppliedJournal editorial
Bell 2012 Malta and Slovenia CoastalMediterranean
regionDPSIR
Selection of indicators and
participatory application of DPSIR
Conceptual and
AppliedResearch paper
EPA 2008 - Coastal USA PSR & PSR/EUse of conceptual models in indicator
development
Conceptual and
AppliedManual
Escaravage et al. 2006 - Coastal Europe DPSIR
Ecological functioning of coastal
systems under eutrophication stress
and implications for management
Conceptual and
AppliedResearch paper
Gregory et al. 2013 Flamborough Head, UK Coastal Europe DPSIRManagement of marine biodiversity at
a multi-user coastal site
Conceptual and
AppliedResearch paper
Ostoich et al. 2009 Venice lagoon, Italy Coastal Europe DPSIRControl of dangerous and priority
substances (WFD)
Conceptual and
AppliedResearch paper
35
Reference Study site Habitat RegionFramework/
Model typeIssue/problem
Implementation
level
Type of
publication
Pacheco et al. 2007 Ria Formosa, Portugal Coastal Europe DPSIR
Management of channels located in
backbarrier systems subject to
dredging operations
Conceptual and
AppliedResearch paper
Turner et al. 1998aTokyo Bay, Japan and
Baltic SeaCoastal Asia and Europe PSIR
Integrated system for land-ocean
interaction
Conceptual and
AppliedTechnical report
Turner 2000 Baltic Sea drainage basin Coastal Europe PSIRIntegrate natural and socio-economic
science in coastal management
Conceptual and
AppliedResearch paper
Zaldívar et al. 2008 - Coastal - DPSIR Assessment of eutrophicationConceptual and
AppliedReview paper
Borja and Dauer 2008 - Coastal - DPSIRDealing with the complexities of socio-
environmental issuesConceptual Research paper
Bowen and Riley 2003 - Coastal - DPSIR & PSR Selection of indicators Conceptual Research paper
Cox et al. 2004 - Coastal Australia PSIR
Provision of an integrated reporting
framework to assess condition, risk,
management actions and priorities for
coastal systems
ConceptualConference
proceedings
Cranford et al. 2012 - Coastal - DPSIR Bivalve aquaculture management Conceptual Research paper
EEA 2013 - Coastal Europe DPSIRCoastal vulnerability and indicator-
based approachConceptual Technical report
Karakos et al. 2003 Nestos Delta, Greece Coastal Europe DPSIREnvironmental status indicators that
span DPSIR categoriesConceptual Research paper
Ledoux and Turner 2002 - Coastal - DPSIR Sustainable development Conceptual Review paper
Mateus and Campuzano 2008 - Coastal - DPSIR Integrated coastal zone management Conceptual Book chapter
Newton and Weichselgartner 2014 - Coastal - DPSIRExplore the causes and consequences
of coastal vulnerabilityConceptual Review paper
Sekovski et. 2012 - Coastal - DPSIR
Elaborate on the role of coastal
megacities in environmental
degradation and their contribution to
global climate change
Conceptual Research paper
Kannen et al. 2004
Vistula River catchment,
Bay of Gdansk,
Poland/Russia
Coastal (entire
catchment area)Europe DPSIR
Response of marine ecosystem to
inflowing contaminates (modelling)Applied Research paper
Karageorgis et al. 2005Aixos River catchment and
Thermaikos Gulf, Greece
Coastal (entire
catchment area)Europe DPSIR Assessment of eutrophication Applied Research paper
Ledoux et al. 2005 Humber estuary, UKCoastal (entire
catchment area)Europe DPSIR
Use of scenarios for integrated
catchment/coastal zone managementApplied Research paper
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
36
Reference Study site Habitat RegionFramework/
Model typeIssue/problem
Implementation
level
Type of
publication
Meybeck et al 2007 Seine River basin, FranceCoastal (entire
catchment area)Europe DPSIR
Sources, evolution, fate and regulation
of metal fluxes Applied Research paper
Nunneri and Hofmann 2005Elbe River catchment-
North Sea
Coastal (entire
catchment area)Europe DPSIR
Nutrient enrichment and coastal
eutrophicationApplied Research paper
Pirrone et al. 2005Po Catchment -Adriatic
Sea, Italy
Coastal (entire
catchment area)Europe DPSIR
Integrated coastal zone management -
elaborate strategies for controlling
eutrophication
Applied Research paper
Walmsley 2002South Africa water
resources
Coastal (entire
catchment area)South Africa DPSIR
Identify key issues in catchment
management and develop indicatorsApplied Research paper
Fassio et al. 2005 -Coastal (entire
catchment area)Europe DPSIR
Management of water resources (i.e.
nitrates)Conceptual Research paper
Giupponi 2002 -Coastal (entire
catchment area)Europe DPSIR (DPS) Sustainable water management Conceptual
Conference long
abstract
Giupponi 2007 -Coastal (entire
catchment area)Europe DPSIR (DPS)
Management of water resources (view
of causal relationships in human-
environmental systems)
Conceptual Research paper
Mysiak et al. 2005
Dyle catchment, Belgium;
Caia catchment, Portugal;
Vahlui catchment,
Romania; Vela catchment,
Italy; Cavallino catchment,
Italy
Coastal (entire
catchment area)Europe DPSIR (DPS)
Management of water resources (view
of causal relationships in human-
environmental systems)
Conceptual Research paper
Rekolainen et al. 2003 -Coastal (entire
catchment area)Europe DPSIR & DPCER
Selection of models and other tools
within different phases of WFD
implementation
Conceptual Research paper
Haberl et al. 2009
Donana, Spain; Inner
Danube Delta wetland
system, Romania;
Eisenwurzen, Austria
Coastal and others Europe DPSIRSocioeconomic biodivesity drivers and
pressuresApplied Analysis paper
Holman et al. 2005East Anglia and North West
England, UKCoastal and others Europe DPSIR
Regional integrated assessment of the
impacts of climate change and socio-
economic change
Applied Research paper
Panov et al. 2009 - Coastal and others Europe DPSIRTo assess the risks of aquatic species
invasions - selection of indicatorsApplied Research paper
37
Reference Study site Habitat RegionFramework/
Model typeIssue/problem
Implementation
level
Type of
publication
McGeoch et al. 2010 - not habitat-specific - PSR Global indicators of biological invasion Applied Research paper
Omann et al. 2009 - not habitat-specific - DPSIR Climate change and biodiversity loss Applied Research paper
Burkhard and Muller 2008 - not habitat-specific - DPSIR Presentation of the framework Conceptual Book chapter
Cooper 2012 - not habitat-specific - DPSWRDefine the DPSWR framework and
comment on its applicationConceptual Policy Brief
Berger and Hodge 1998 - not habitat-specific - PSR & DSREnvironmental assessment and natural
change in the environmentConceptual Research paper
Carr et al. 2007 - not habitat-specific - DPSIRSustainable development (DPSIR as
reporting framework)Conceptual Research paper
Delbaere 2003 - not habitat-specific - DPSIR
Inventory of biodiversity indicators (i.e
allocattion of biodiversity indicators to
DPSIR components)
Conceptual Technical report
EPA 1994 - not habitat-specific USA PSR and PSR/EUse of conceptual models in indicator
developmentConceptual Research paper
EU 1999 - not habitat-specific Europe DPSIR Development of indicators Conceptual Technical report
Gabrielsen and Bosh 2003 - not habitat-specific - DPSIR Reporting on indicators using DPSIR Conceptual Technical report
Green et al. 2005 - not habitat-specific - DPSIRMeasure biodiversity and reduce
biodiversity lossConceptual Essay
Hulme 2007 - not habitat-specific Europe DPSIRCharacterise the threat of alien
species to European biodiversityConceptual Book chapter
Mace and Baillie 2007 - not habitat-specific - DPSIRSelection of indicators and
measurement of biodiversityConceptual Research paper
Maes et al. 2013 - not habitat-specific Europe DPSIR
Propose a conceptual framework for
ecosystem assessment under Action 5
of the Biodiversity Strategy
ConceptualDiscussion paper -
Final
Maxim et al. 2009 - not habitat-specific - tetrahedral DPSIR Biodiversity Conceptual Research paper
Meyar-Naimi and Vaez-Zadeh 2012 - not habitat-specific -PSR, DSR, DPSIR,
DPSEA, DPSEEA
Environment, energy and health
related issuesConceptual Review paper
Müller and Burkhard 2012 - not habitat-specific - DPSIREcosystem services and ecological
indicatorsConceptual
Short
communication
Niemeijer and de Groot 2008 - not habitat-specific - eDPSIRFramework for selecting environmental
indicatorsConceptual Research paper
OECD 1993 - not habitat-specific - PSRFramework for developing and
selecting environmental indicatorsConceptual Monograph
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
38
Reference Study site Habitat RegionFramework/
Model typeIssue/problem
Implementation
level
Type of
publication
Singh et al. 2009 - not habitat-specific - DPSIRSustainability assessment
methodologiesConceptual Review paper
Smeets and Weterings 1999 - not habitat-specific - DPSIR Reporting on indicators using DPSIR Conceptual Technical report
Spangenberg 2007 - not habitat-specific - PDBiodiversity loss and developing
preservation strategiesConceptual Research paper
Spangenberg et al. 2009 - not habitat-specific - DPSIRBiodiversity loss and developing
preservation strategiesConceptual Journal editorial
Svarstad et al. 2008 - not habitat-specific - DPSIR
Biodiversity (structuring and
communicating research about the
environment)
Conceptual Research paper
Tscherning et al. 2012 - not habitat-specific - DPSIR Revise the use of the DPSIR framework Conceptual Review paper
UNEP 2009 - not habitat-specific - DPSIR Vulnerability assessment Conceptual Manual
39
3.2. From Concepts to Assessments
The intricacy of interactions between drivers-pressures, and the relationship of pressures to state
changes, means that it is a complex task to undertake high level or quantitative assessments for
management purposes. Any individual method requires knowledge of all the potential causal chains and
state changes. The methodologies that might be applied can be broadly classified as a matrices
approach or as a form of ecosystem modelling. The assessment can only be as good as the knowledge
and detail applied.
3.2.1. Simple Matrices Approach
Matrices are simple tables where drivers (or, more specifically, the activities resulting from them) can be
related to pressures, and where pressures can be related to state changes. Such tables allow the
identification of chains formed by particular causal links and permit some form of linear analysis of the
impact chain (Knights et al., 2013).
The potential state changes caused by anthropogenic pressures in the marine environment, caused by a
series of specific activities, have previously been defined in terms of their adverse effects on a series of
receptors. Nevertheless, there remains a need to define the pressures (emanating from hazards) causing
the problems (as the adverse effects on receptors) and the risk relating to those hazards (Elliott et al.,
2014). The determination of the severity of the problems is then Risk Assessment (i.e. the movement of
D and P to S and I), which needs Risk Management (i.e. the use of R to D and P) as the outcome of the
responses under the DPSIR framework. Such information has been presented as a series of linked
matrices, allowing users to identify those biodiversity components within the marine environment that
are likely to be susceptible to damage by known pressures, as brought about by a defined activity. These
relationships effectively define the links between pressures and potential state changes.
Under this simple approach, the matrices record relationships between activity and pressures, and
between pressures and state changes. The relationships that are represented are complex with, for
example, any single activity potentially causing many pressures, and any single pressure being caused by
more than one activity (i.e. a many-to-many relationship).
The matrices that support this approach can be linked simply by an overlap (pressure X causes state
change Y) or through more detailed information on potential levels of interaction, for example showing
high/low or increasing/decreasing degrees of state change. The degree of state change caused by a
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
40
pressure on a habitat can be assessed in terms of: activity area or footprint, frequency, persistence, and
characteristics of the habitat/ecosystem component impacted, including sensitivity and resilience
(ability for recovery). Matrices and pressure assessment approaches have been used extensively and
their use has been explained in the ODEMM project (see, for example, Robinson and Knights, 2011;
Knights et al., 2011; Koss et al., 2011). Matrices are used as standard tools for pressure assessments, for
example by HELCOM and OSPAR (Johnson, 2008). Complex matrices and linkages can be compiled
through databases where the programming environment can be used to analyse data and use special
tools that filter data, for example, to highlight activities that need to be managed or sensitive ecological
components that might be at risk of state change (e.g. the PRISM and PISA Access database tools
developed through the U.K. Net Gain programme (Net Gain, 2011)). The accuracy or value of the matrix
approach will depend on identification of components, linkages and parameterisation for a particular
area. They are useful for assessments, and depending on how comprehensive they are, will give the
state changes; this will then allow users to predict the state changes under given circumstances.
3.2.2. Ecosystem Models
With the move towards ecosystem-based management, much attention has been devoted to ecosystem
modelling. These models may be conceptual (Section 3), deterministic (in which there is underlying
theory or embedded mathematical relationships) or empirical in which the links are described
statistically even when there is no apparent underlying theory. Some studies have focussed on the
management of particular aspects of the ecosystem (e.g. Robinson and Frid, 2003; Plagányi, 2007) whilst
other, more recent, studies concern the whole natural ecosystem and/or socio-ecological system (the
latter are referred to as ‘end-to-end’ models) model development/application (e.g. Rose et al., 2010;
Heath, 2012). In the context of the DEVOTES project (Piroddi et al., 2013), whole ecosystem models are
the more relevant as they may better represent interactions with biodiversity components and these
would for example include ECOPATH with ECOSIM, ATLANTIS or coupled lower trophic and high trophic
models (Rose et al., 2010) (see DEVOTES Deliverable 4.1. Report on available models for biodiversity and
needs for development).
The ability to apply models to drivers and pressure effects relies on knowledge of activities/pressures
and being able to parameterise accordingly. For example, if trawling is known to cause a 30% reduction
in suspension feeders in a modelled area, a 30% mortality figure can be applied to that biological
component (split over a temporal or spatial scale) with respect to trawling activity (Petihakis et al.,
2007). A specific model may not have the resolution to apply a precise mechanism, nor do models
currently include detail on habitats. Whilst pelagic habitats may be defined by salinity, temperature,
depth, nutrients, oxygen, etc., benthic habitats (an important setting for all species groups) are generally
41
not parameterised in any model. Nevertheless, such models may well be able to take into account
indirect effects such as changes in predator-prey relations.
3.2.3. Bayesian Belief Networks
Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs; also referred to as belief networks, causal nets, causal probabilistic
networks, probabilistic cause effect models, and graphical probability networks) offer a pragmatic and
scientifically credible approach to modelling complex ecological systems and problems, where
substantial uncertainties exist. A BBN is a graphical and probabilistical representation of causal and
statistical relationships across a set of variables (McCann et al., 2006). The structure consists of
graphically represented causal relationships (for example, the DPSIR D-P-S chain links) comprised of
nodes that represent component variables and causal dependencies or links based on an understanding
of underlying processes/relationships/association. Each node is associated with a function that gives the
probability of the variable represented by the node dependant on the upstream/parent nodes. Each
variable is populated with the best data available and can include expert opinion, simulation results or
observed data. It is therefore flexible and also allows the information to be easily updated as better data
become available (from Pollino et al., 2007; Hamilton et al., 2005).
Notwithstanding their potential, BBNs represent a relatively new modelling approach. They have only
been applied to marine assessments in a limited way (e.g. in the ELME project, Langmead et al., 2007).
However, BBNs are becoming an increasingly popular modelling tool, particularly in ecology and
environmental management. This is largely because they can be used in a predictive capacity and also,
because they use probabilities to quantify relationships between model variables, they explicitly allow
uncertainty and variability to be accommodated in model predictions (Barnard and Boyes, 2013). They
show high promise in adaptive management being iterative and especially in being able to mix and use
both empirical data and expert knowledge. Although their uptake has been slow, in future it is expected
that they will be used to a greater extent.
Within terrestrial studies, BBNs have been used in conjunction with State and Transition Models (STMs)
(e.g. Bashari et al., 2009). Because of their graphical and descriptive nature, STMs are excellent tools for
communicating knowledge regarding a system between scientists, managers, and policy makers.
However, because they are essentially descriptive diagrams, STMs on their own have only a very limited
predictive capability (which has restricted their practical application in scenario analysis), and their
coarse handling of uncertainty represents a further shortcoming. In applying STMs and BBNs to
rangeland management in south-east Queensland, Australia, Bashari et al. (2009) demonstrated an
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
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approach which effectively linked an STM with a BBN to provide a relatively simple and dynamic model
that was able to accommodate uncertainty, and support scenario-, diagnostic- and sensitivity- analyses.
3.2.4. The BowTie approach
The BowTie method initially presents a conceptual model, which is increasingly being used to explore
the causes, consequences and responses relating to natural and anthropogenic causes of change (Smyth
and Elliott, 2014). It facilitates analysis or assessment of a defined problem by focusing attention onto
the areas of a system where the consequences of a potentially damaging event can be proactively
managed. The BowTie method is itself formed from a conceptual model that can be adapted to provide
for a graphical representation of the expansion of the initial DPSIR environmental cause-and-effect
pathway (Cormier et al., 2013). More specifically, it can be used to focus on the pathway between
Pressure and State Change, and provides a means of identifying where controls can be put in place
either to control the occurrence of a particular event, or to mitigate for the effects of the event should it
occur. A BowTie embodies various elements of risk causes, assessment and consequence associated
with the system under consideration and creates a clear differentiation between proactive and reactive
management options (Figure 8). As well as being a useful management tool in its own right, it also
serves as a key communication and consultation tool (Cormier et al., 2013).
Figure 8. A classic BowTie framework. Taken from www.cgerisk.com/knowledge-base/risk-assessment/thebowtiemethod
The start of any BowTie is the identification of a ‘Hazard’ – which is defined as part of the system under
consideration that has the potential to cause damage; it represents an element of the system which, if
control were to be lost, would generate negative consequences for the system. For example, within a
BowTie structure, an activity such as demersal trawling could be considered to be a Hazard.
43
Once a Hazard is been identified, the next step is to define the ‘Top event’. This represents the point
where control would be lost over the Hazard, but where as yet here is no damage or negative impact,
but it is imminent. This means that the Top Event is defined so as to be occurring just before events start
causing actual damage. For any Top Event, there are a number of ‘Threats’ that might cause the Top
Event, which if not prevented or mitigated could then lead to a set of ‘Consequences’: hence usually
there are several or many Threats and Consequences for every Top Event.
The final stage of building a basic BowTie model is to identify potential barriers which can be placed
either between the threat and the Top Event as a prevention measure or alternatively as a recovery,
mitigation or compensation mechanism preventing the Top Event from escalating into actual
consequences or reducing the severity of the consequences. The preventative measures can be
economic, governance, societal, political or technological devices, hence mapping on to the 10-tenets as
a set of actions required to give sustainable environmental management (Elliott, 2013). It is likely that
there may be several top events possibly occurring in any one area as the result of the Drivers such that
nested Bow Ties are required in any assessment of cumulative impacts (Cormier et al., in prep.).
Similarly, the consequence of the loss of control in one Bow Tie sequence may become the top event in
another. For example, the threat of the introduction of non-indigenous species may be a top event, the
consequence of which may be that an area fails Good Environmental Status (GEnS) under the MSFD. In
turn, the failure to meet GEnS will then become the Top Event which has legal and financial
consequences, each requiring mitigation (Smyth and Elliott, 2014).
The DPSIR framework can then be superimposed on the Bow-Tie structure given that the threats to the
top-event will be Drivers and/or Pressures and the top-event and consequences are likely to be the
State changes and/or Impacts. The barriers both as prevention measures and as mitigation or
compensation measures, constitute the Response within DPSIR. As such, this links to a Risk Assessment
and then Risk Management (RARM) framework as the need for responses to human pressures, which
then follows the set of steps outlined in Table 3.
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Table 3. Stages in the assessment of risk leading to the need for risk management (from Elliott et al., 2014).
Stage Detail
1. Problem Formulation What needs to be assessed?
2. Hazard Identification What can go wrong? (What are the hazards?)
3. Cause Identification What can lead to the hazard occurring? (What causes the hazard?) Quantitative: How often or how likely is it that these causes will occur?
4. Exposure Assessment (This is a quantitative step that is not necessary but adds value to the risk assessment)
Quantitative: How does the hazard reach the receptor? At what intensity? How long for and/or how frequently does the hazard reach or affect the receptor? Quantitative: How likely is it that the receptors will be exposed to the hazard?
5. Consequence or Effect Identification
What are the consequences of the hazard if it occurs?
6. Risk Characterisation and Estimation for Consequences
What are the risks (quantitative or qualitative measure)? Quantitative: What is the probability of the consequence happening? Estimated for both before and after preventative and mitigation measures are put in place.
4. Cumulative Effects
Single activities can have multiple pressures and the marine ecosystem usually supports multiple
activities. Consequently multiples pressures will often be affect physico-chemical and ecological
components. The multiple pressures will rarely be equal and will lead to cumulative and in-combination
effects and such combinations may be synergistic, in which the sum of the effects is increased, or
antagonistic, in which effects may cancel each other. This section summarises some of the current
knowledge on cumulative effects and regional seas aspects.
In determining cumulative effects, it is important to note that synergism and antagonism may refer to
either a mechanistic- or an outcome-based sense, referring to either the mechanistic interactions
between drivers or to the resultant net outcome for an organism/population/community (Boyd and
Hutchins, 2012). This section relates to resultant outcomes, whereas the beginning of the next section
deals with mechanistic interactions.
45
When considering multiple pressures, resultant effects can act in many different ways (see Box 3). In
previous research, agents (particularly climatologically mediated) effecting environmental properties
have been defined as ‘stressors’ (Breitburg et al., 1998). In both theoretical and applied research, the
effect of multiple stressors was often assumed to be the additive accumulation of effects associated
with single stressors (Crain 2008) with the major difficulty of equating the impact of different
stressors/pressures relative to one another (even between or within different areas). Non-additive
concepts were introduced and defined by Folt et al. (1999); as well as additive effects, two stressors may
cause synergistic effects where the total effect is greater than the sum of the individual effects (for
example, two pollutants of low toxicity, each may have minor debilitating effects but combined may be
lethal) or antagonistic effects where the total effect is lesser than the sum of the individual effects. For
example, increases in coral calcification rates due to warming could partially counter the negative
effects of calcification of decreasing carbonate ion concentration due to ocean acidification (Lough and
Barnes, 2000). Synergistic effects are likely to be widespread (e.g. Sala et al., 2000).
Crain et al. (2008) analysed 171 studies concerning multiple stressors in marine and coastal
environments and included: salinity, sedimentation, nutrients, toxins, fishing, sea level rise,
temperature, CO2, UV exposure, species invasions, disease, hypoxia and disturbance (subset from
Halpern et al., 2007). The meta-analysis found multiple stressor effects, by study, to be 26% additive,
36% synergistic and 38% antagonistic, while interaction type varied by response level, trophic level, and
specific stressor pair. They noted that addition of a third stressor changed interaction effects
significantly in 66% of all cases and doubled the number of synergistic interactions. Response at the
community level tended to be antagonistic, whilst synergistic at the population level, suggesting that
species interactions within communities dampen and diffuse the impacts of multiple stressors that can
have strong negative effects on individual species. Consequently, species level-data where most studies
have taken place may have limited value in predicting community or ecosystem responses (Crain et al.,
BOX 3. M u l t i p l e P r e s s u r e / S t r e s s o r E f f e c t s
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
The cumulative effects of Stressor a and Stressor b upon an ecosystem component can be defined as:
Additive Effect: result = a + b
Synergistic Effect: result > a + b
Antagonistic Effect: result < a + b
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2008). In another meta-analysis of 112 experimental studies Darling and Cote (2008) found that the
majority of the combined effects of two stressors were similar to the previous study with 23% additive,
35% synergistic and 42% antagonistic, a consistent result across different stressors, organisms and life-
history stages. They concluded that synergies may be rarer than expected, but highlighted that 77% of
studies showed non-additive effects (synergistic plus antagonistic), which is unexpected from a
community or ecosystem-based conservation perspective where multiple stressors effects may be
unpredictable from individual stressors and may lead to ‘ecological surprises’ as defined earlier by Paine
et al. (1998). This makes it extremely difficult, and also inappropriate, to attempt to define a single
conceptual model to illustrate the links between pressures and state change.
Many authors have indicated our lack of knowledge at the community and ecosystem level elucidating
or predicting effects of combinations of individual pressure impacts, although we can measure the
status of an ecosystem that is impacted by multiple pressures. This reflects how we may know what we
have, but are unclear to exactly how it is happening at a sub-species, species, population or community
level.
4.1. Cumulative Impacts in Regional Sea Studies
Multiple activity/pressure impacts, as cumulative threats or cumulative impacts, have been investigated
according to the footprints of a particular driver/activity and their overlap with habitats using spatial
mapping/modelling. This approach does not consider additive/synergistic/antagonistic effects.
Cumulative impacts (including both overlap and weighted cumulative methods) have been investigated
at a global level by Halpern et al. (2008) with their global impact map shown in Figure 9, but also at the
European level, for example in the Baltic (Korpinen et al., 2013 – Figure 10), eastern North Sea
(Andersen et al., 2013) and the Mediterranean (Figure 11 and 12) by both Coll et al. (2011) and Micheli
et al. (2013), the latter two examples with some contrasting results in different geographical areas.
These techniques may not be of direct use in assessing State changes within the DEVOTES project but
may nevertheless be of value in spatial planning applications, for example, in identifying areas where
high levels of protection may be necessary. Similarly it is of note that the analysis by Halpern et al.
(2008) was of the presence of activities rather than, and despite the paper’s title, human impacts. It is
emphasised that an activity does not always have to lead to an impact especially if mitigation measures
are employed.
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Figure 9. Global map of cumulative impacts from Halpern et al. (2008).
Figure 10. Baltic Sea cumulative impacts from Korpinen et al. (2013).
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Figure 11. Mediterranean Sea cumulative impacts on invertebrate species from Coll et al. (2011).
Figure 12. Mediterranean Sea cumulative impacts from Micheli et al. (2013).
Phenomena that characterize the dynamics of multiple environmental issues have multiple causes and
represent the cause for many different other phenomena. The effects of several causes can be
synergistic or antagonistic, and causes and effects can interact in different ways (Maxim et al., 2009).
5. DPS Chains in the MSFD
As a major example of the complexity of interactions and considering just one sector (fishing) with one
activity (demersal trawling), activities exert multiple individual pressures affecting the seafloor
environment (see evidence in Blaber et al., 2000, and conceptual models McLusky and Elliott, 2004).
Demersal trawling results in the selective extraction of species but, amongst other effects, also brings
about the non-selective extraction of other living resources and causes abrasion to the seabed (scouring
and turning over the sediment as well as causing compaction and other changes in sediment structure).
49
As well as extraction, fishing vessels can also input various objects/elements into the marine
environment. From the identified list of MSFD pressures those potentially resulting from demersal
trawling are identified in Table 4, which highlights both primary and lesser trawling pressures.
In turn, the pressures may act on specific habitats in a particular area, where the trawling activities are
taking place (Table 5). The habitats could be said to define what biological components may potentially
be present (e.g. shallow sublittoral muddy sand may have seagrass present) and are in some cases a link
between pressures and ecological components.
Table 4. Standard pressures (25) in the marine environment identified from various sectoral activities (Marine Strategy Framework Directive (EC, 2008)) and ODEMM project - (Koss et al., 2011)). Bold highlighted (dark grey), primary pressures by demersal trawling activities; weakly highlighted (light grey), lesser pressures by demersal trawling.
MSFD Pressures
Smothering Nitrogen and phosphorus enrichment
Substratum loss Input of organic matter
Changes in siltation Introduction of microbial pathogens
Abrasion Introduction of non-indigenous species
Selective extraction of non-living resources Selective extraction of species
Underwater noise Death by injury and collision
Marine litter Barrier to species movement
Thermal regime changes Emergence regime change
Salinity regime changes Water flow rate changes
Introduction of synthetic compounds pH changes
Introduction of non-synthetic compounds Electromagnetic changes
Introduction of radionuclides Change in wave exposure
Introduction of other substances
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Table 5. Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) habitats impacted by demersal trawling (from the defined list of Predominant Habitats related to monitoring (adapted for DEVOTES from EU Commission Decision (2010/477/EC) and the EU Commission Staff Working Papers (EC, 2011, 2012)). Bold highlighted: strongly impacted to demersal trawling. Benthic habitats: littoral (approx. 0-1 m – intertidal zone), shallow sub-littoral (approx. 1-60 m), shelf sub-littoral (approx. 60-200 m), upper bathyal (approx. 200-1100 m), lower bathyal (approx. 1100-2700 m), abyssal (approx. >2700m).
MSFD Habitats (Predominant Habitats related to monitoring)
Littoral rock and biogenic reef Upper bathyal rock and biogenic reef
Littoral sediment Upper bathyal sediment
Shallow sublittoral rock and biogenic reef Lower bathyal rock and biogenic reef
Shallow sublittoral coarse sediment Lower bathyal sediment
Shallow sublittoral sand Abyssal rock and biogenic reef
Shallow sublittoral mud Abyssal sediment
Shallow sublittoral mixed sediment Reduced salinity water
Shelf sublittoral rock and biogenic reef Variable salinity (estuarine) water
Shelf sublittoral coarse sediment Marine water: coastal
Shelf sublittoral sand Marine water: shelf
Shelf sublittoral mud Marine water: oceanic
Shelf sublittoral mixed sediment Ice-associated habitats
Table 6. Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) environmental characteristics impacted by demersal trawling (adapted for DEVOTES from EU Commission Decision (2010/477/EC) and the EU Commission Staff Working Papers (EC, 2011, 2012)). Bold highlights indicate groups that are strongly influenced by demersal trawling.
MSFD Environmental Characteristics
Bathymetry Mixing characteristics
Topography Turbidity
Sediment composition Residence time
Temperature Salinity
Ice cover Nutrients
Current velocity Oxygen
Upwelling pH
Wave exposure pCO2
Within any one habitat, the different pressures may affect several environmental characteristics (Table
6). These characteristics also define/affect the niches of species groups (Table 7) such that following a
51
pressure, the environmental characteristics may no longer be suitable for that species group. Each of
those species groups has structural and functional characteristics (Table 8) that may be affected to
various extents. Although most of the effects that have been highlighted are direct, there are indirect
affects for example through damage or habitat modification or changes to predator prey relationships.
Table 7. Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) Species Groups impacted by demersal trawling (adapted for DEVOTES from EU Commission Decision (2010/477/EC) and the EU Commission Staff Working Papers (EC, 2011, 2012)). Bold highlights indicate groups that are strongly influenced by demersal trawling; light highlights indicates lesser influence by demersal trawling,
MSFD Species Groups
Microbes Fish
Phytoplankton Cephalopods
Zooplankton Birds
Angiosperms Reptiles
Macroalgae Marine Mammals
Benthic invertebrates
Table 8. Structural and Functional type characteristics impacted by demersal trawling (adapted for DEVOTES from EC 2008). Bold highlights indicate structural and functional characteristics that are strongly influenced by demersal trawling; light highlights indicate characteristics subject to lesser influence by demersal trawling.
Structural Characteristics Functional Characteristics
Species composition Functional Diversity
Species distribution/range Productivity
Species variability Fecundity
Abundance Survival
Age/Size structure Mortality
Biomass and ratios Bioturbation
Population Dynamics & Condition Predator-Prey Processes
Non-indigenous species Energy Flows
Chemical levels/contaminants
Although presented simplistically, the situation is always complex. Different degrees of pressure can
lead to different state change trajectories, for example, something causing large scale direct mortality
will immediately cause a reduction in species, abundance, biomass, diversity, community structure
change, etc., and the duration of this will be dependent on the nature of the habitat and its recovery
potential (Duarte et al., 2013). This then determines the severity and timescale of wider impacts (e.g. at
higher trophic levels). Alternatively, the pressure could just cause damage (e.g. crushing, loss or
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damaged limbs or shells through collision with fishing gear) so that energy is allocated to individual
recovery rather than growth/reproduction etc. In the long term, biomass, some components of
population and community may be compromised with wider effects at ecosystem level. These impacts
may take longer to manifest at higher levels and may occur over longer timescales. Some of these
aspects are explored further in Section 6.
6. DEVOTES Conceptual Framework
6.1. Refined conceptual model of pressure-state change
relationships
Whilst it is well understood that pressures on environmental systems can result in varying degrees of
state change, and that this can cause a loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, the process by which
those impacts occur is complex. For a single, specific pressure, the relationship between pressure and
impact varies according to the degree of pressure (e.g. spatial extent, duration and/or frequency,
intensity), the habitat type upon which the pressure is acting, the component species and those species
in the wider ecosystem which they support. This gives rise to a large number of potential pressure-state-
change trajectories which increase in complexity when potentially synergistic or antagonistic
combinations of activities and pressures are acting simultaneously (Section 4). It is therefore not
possible to produce a single, informative conceptual model that fully describes pressure-state change
relationships. Similarly, it would be incorrect to force complex processes into over-simplified models.
This section presents example models that describe the generic processes leading to impacts for a
selection of activities, pressures, habitat types and biological components. It is emphasised however
that the specific, detailed trajectories will be site/system specific and specific to the nature of the
activities and their associated pressures.
Pressure is defined as the mechanism through which a state change occurs (Robinson et al., 2008) and
current attempts to link pressure with state change assume pressure to act as a single mechanism
leading to state change (Robinson and Knights, 2011; Knights et al., 2011; Koss et al., 2011). Within this
definition, pressure is more specifically viewed as the cause of a series of physico-chemical and
biological state changes to the environment which, through lethal or sub-lethal processes, compromise
the performance or survival of the component level of biological organisations (cell, individual,
population (species, or community) (Figure 13). For example, the physical structure of the environment
53
may be rendered unsuitable to support the existing biological community, thus leading to changes in
species composition and relative abundance.
Achievement of State change can be a progressive process and whilst changes to the structure of the
physico-cehmical and biological components may be classed as state changes, paradoxically they may
also be viewed as the mechanisms through which a pressure acts to cause a biological state change
(Figure 13). For example, a change to the substratum type due to an activity is a physico-chemical state
change and at the same time is a mechanism (and hence a pressure) causing a biological state change in
the benthos. It is emphasised that, whilst most pressures are associated with physical state changes (e.g.
hydrodynamic changes, substratum changes), the direct removal of species, the introduction of non-
indigenous species and the input of microbial contaminants represent biological mechanisms of change.
These physico-chemical and biological modifications to the environment lead to a series of biological
state changes, which can occur at any level (e.g., cellular, physiological, individual, population,
community, ecosystem) (Figure 13). At a cellular or individual level, the response may be lethal
(referring to loss) as a result of direct mortality associated with the pressure, direct removal (e.g. by
fishing gear) or emigration, or sublethal. Lethal responses can have immediate, direct effects on an
individual population and community (and ultimately ecosystem) structure in terms of the species
composition, their relative abundance and biomass, total population and community biomass, trophic
interactions and other functional attributes such as primary and secondary production and
biogeochemical cycling. Sublethal responses relate to physical, chemical or biological damage caused by
the pressure at an individual level, whereby the organism survives but its performance and, therefore,
contribution to ecosystem processes is compromised.
Collectively, these physico-chemical and biological changes to the environment and associated biological
responses lead to an overall state change which may initially be at a localised population and
community level but, if severe enough and sustained, may also lead to state changes in interacting
populations, communities and at the ecosystem level (Figure 13). The ultimate degree of state change at
a community or ecosystem level associated with lethal and sub-lethal mechanisms of state change may
be broadly similar but the severity, timescales over which those state changes occur and their duration
will differ.
Despite this, the inherent variability and complexity throughout the levels of biological organisation may
mean that an effect at a lower level does not necessarily manifest itself at higher levels, i.e. stressors at
lower levels (e.g. cellular, individual) may get absorbed so that the higher levels (e.g. population,
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community, ecosystem) do not show any deleterious effects. The ability to absorb that stress has been
termed environmental homeostasis (Elliott and Quintino, 2006). Hence a stressor does not
automatically lead to a high-level ecological effect.
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Figure 13. Generic conceptual model showing the progression of physico-chemical and biological state changes arising from pressures in the marine environment. The black arrows under the diagram indicate the way in which pressure can cause a biological state change at any level: either (1) progressively through a sub-lethal response at the individual level which, over time, can lead to state changes at higher levels or (2) directly by acting at a higher level, leading to more immediate community and ecosystem state changes.
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
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The sequence of biological state changes will vary according to:
degree of pressure (spatial extent, intensity, duration, frequency) and whether it leads to lethal or sub-lethal effects;
type of pressure;
habitat sensitivity and the potential for disturbance and recovery of the physical attributes;
sensitivity of the component species and communities and their recovery potential;
sensitivity of the balance of interactions within and between habitats and biological components.
The pressures associated with demersal trawling are described in section 5. Taking the abrasion
pressure as a specific example, and assuming a subtidal sedimentary (mud/sand) habitat, there are a
number of physical state changes that may arise and which may, in turn, lead to a series of biological
state changes (Figure 14).
The physical state changes associated with abrasion can be divided into those that cause immediate
biological state change at higher biological levels (community/ecosystem), for example, by direct
mortality, and those that cause a progressive state change over an extended time period through a
sequence of physico-chemical state changes and state changes at different levels of biological
organisation (e.g. through a modification of the physical environment). This leads to two different
trajectories of state change (lethal and sub-lethal) which act over different timescales and may
ultimately differ in severity and longevity (Figures 13, 14).
With respect to sub-lethal effects (upper row of Figure 14), in sedimentary habitats, the pressure
‘abrasion’ can lead to sediment homogenisation, change in the particle size characteristics and organic
content of the sediment, changes in the sedimentation regime and changes to sediment stability and
consolidation (Figure 14). Since the composition of the substratum is directly linked to the inhabiting
species (Snelgrove and Butman, 1994), such changes, if severe enough or sustained for long enough, will
act as physical mechanisms that result in overall changes to biological community structure by rendering
the habitat unsuitable for long term survival, larval settlement and recruitment (Alexander et al., 1993).
Similarly, the removal of species will affect a feedback loop whereby the organisms modify the
sedimentary conditions through bioturbation, bioengineering, biodeposition, etc. (e.g. Gray and Elliott,
2009). Additionally, those organisms that are more mobile may simply relocate to other areas. Whilst
this leads to species loss, it also presents opportunities for colonisation by new species leading to an
overall change in community structure. Coupled with this may be a change in community function, as
species are lost and replaced by functionally different species. Under this scenario, there would be a
57
degree of change in abundance, biomass and secondary production (and perhaps species richness and
diversity), which may impact on wider ecosystem processes. Whilst this impact would be more gradual
than in the second (lethal effects) scenario, and may be counteracted to an extent by colonisation by
new species, overall community structure and function may nevertheless be altered.
Additionally, sub-lethal effects may arise through (for example) morphological damage (caused by
interaction with fishing gear) and the associated physiological stress, changes in the physico-chemical
parameters of the water column (e.g. dissolved oxygen, suspended solids), clogging of respiratory
structures, inability to feed or burrow and behavioural modifications. Subsequently, somatic growth and
reproductive capacity may be compromised as a result of, for example, increased respiration rate,
increased ammonia production in response to stress, re-allocation of resources to survival and recovery
(e.g. Widdows et al., 1981) or evolutionary adaptations that enable accelerated maturation and early
reproduction at the expense of ultimate body size (Mollet et al., 2007; Elliott et al., 2012). These effects
may initially be apparent at the individual or population level but if sustained, will ultimately lead to
changes in abundance, biomass and function at community and ecosystem level.
With respect to lethal effects (the lower row of Figure 14, relating to mortality or direct removal)
immediate state changes at the population and community level within a habitat are likely to include a
reduction in the biomass and abundance of both target and non-target species. In the longer term, and
particularly where demersal trawling is repetitive and frequent, a sustained reduction in species richness
and diversity may occur, coupled with changes to community structure. Population structure in
disturbed habitats may also be altered, particularly in longer-lived species, whereby individuals of a
certain size class are selectively removed or where species of a more opportunistic nature allocate
resources to reproductive output rather than somatic production resulting in a population dominated by
small and or/young individuals. Ultimately, these state changes will result in an overall loss of secondary
production which, coupled with altered predator-prey interactions, will lead to alterations of higher
ecosystem processes.
In terms of timescale, and with reference to the ability of MSFD indicators to detect state change, this
could potentially be a relatively acute process, with state changes at population and community level
being immediately detectable. The duration would depend on the sensitivity of the species and habitats,
their recovery potential (or their potential to recover to an alternative state which supports wider
ecosystem processes) and the intensity of the pressure (or causative activity). It would also depend on
the processes in the first (sub-lethal) scenario, since the two do not occur in isolation, whereby physical
and biological changes to the environment will influence recovery rates and trajectories.
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Both of these scenarios (lethal and sub-lethal) have the potential to ultimately lead to changes in
population and community structure, overall community biomass and primary/secondary production,
fragmentation and overall negative effects at higher trophic levels and wider ecosystem processes. The
difference between the scenarios lies in the complexity/detail trajectory between the application of a
pressure and the resultant state change.
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Figure 14. State change trajectory initiated by the pressure abrasion (for example, as caused by demersal trawling) in a subtidal sedimentary habitat. MSFD:
Marine Strategy Framework Directive.
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6.2. The state change conceptual model in the context of risk
assessment
The pressure-state change conceptual model (Figures 13 and 14) has been conceived to accommodate
the multiple pathways that can link a pressure to a series of state changes and to allow express
consideration of the range of initial biological or physico-chemical state changes that may result from
any given pressure and which through lethal or sub-lethal processes, compromise the performance or
survival of an ecological component and so may bring about state change detected by MSFD descriptors
(e.g. at the population, community or ecosystem level).
However, as emphasised earlier, it is important to recognise that whilst the scenario (Figure 14) relates
only to a single pressure, abrasion, this pressure may potentially arise as the result of a number of
different activities (Table 9).
As with the basic pressure-state change model that underpins the simple matrix approach (Section
3.2.1.), each of the stages within the conceptual model (Figure 14) are characterised by a series of
many-to-many relationships. This can be set in the context of the MSFD by visualising these links as they
relate to an MSFD descriptor. For example, Figure 15 shows the range of physico-chemical state changes
that may lead to loss of sea floor integrity (i.e. effectively those changes that arise due to abrasion) and
the consequent range of potential (biological) state changes that may result at the individual,
population, community or ecosystem level.
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Table 9. Activities (by sector) that may give rise to the pressure of seabed abrasion
Sector Activity
Aquaculture (including marine biotechnology based on aquaculture)
Set-up of fin-fish aquaculture facilities (interaction with seafloor during set-up of infrastructure, loss of gear)
Operation of fin-fish aquaculture facilities (waste products, anti-fouling, predator control, disease and disease control, infrastructure effects on local hydrography, escapees, litter, anchoring/mooring of boats)
Set-up of macro-algae aquaculture facilities (trampling (certain species), interaction with seafloor, removal of habitat-structuring species, loss of gear)
Operation of macro-algae aquaculture facilities (waste products, anti-fouling, predator control, disease and disease control, infrastructure effects on local hydrography, litter, anchoring/mooring of boats)
Set-up of shellfish aquaculture (interaction with seafloor when dredging for brood stock, loss of gear, litter)
Operation of shellfish aquaculture (waste products, anti-fouling, predator control, disease and disease control, infrastructure effects on local hydrography, litter, anchoring/mooring of boats)
Fishing Operation of benthic trawls and dredges (interaction with seafloor, catch, bycatch, waste products)
Operation of benthic trawls and dredges - mooring/anchoring (interaction with seafloor)
Operation of suction/hydraulic dredges (interaction with seafloor, catch, bycatch, waste products)
Operation of suction/hydraulic dredges - mooring/anchoring (interaction with seafloor)
Shipping Mooring/anchoring/beaching/launching (interaction with seafloor)
Renewable Energy Construction of wind farms (installation/deinstallation of turbines on seafloor includes interaction with seafloor, habitat change and sealing, laying cables)
Construction of wave energy installations (cable laying/removing - localised habitat change, noise)
Construction of tidal sluices (interaction with seafloor, localised sealing of habitat)
Construction of tidal barrages (interaction with seafloor, habitat change (upstream and downstream) and localised sealing of habitat, barrier to movement for migratory anadromous or catadromous species)
Non-renewable Energy (oil, gas and hydro)
Exploration/construction of oil and gas facilities (drilling, anchoring, construction of wellheads, laying pipelines, oil spills) and subsequent decommissioning (anchoring, oil spills, removal of infrastructure where relevant)
Construction of (land-based, coastal) power stations (jetties and intake wells - habitat change, sealing, increased turbidity, noise)
Construction of (land-based, coastal) nuclear power stations (jetties and intake wells - habitat change, sealing, increased turbidity, noise)
Telecommunications Installation/laying of communication cables (localised habitat change and smothering, interaction with seafloor, atmospheric emissions from ships laying cables)
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for the effects of marine pressures on biodiversity
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Table 9. (Cont.)
Sector Activity
Aggregates Maerl extraction - removal of substrate (habitat change, interaction with seafloor, removal of habitat-structuring species)
Coastal rock/mineral quarrying - extraction of substrate (habitat change, interaction with seafloor, contaminant release)
Sand/gravel aggregate extraction - removal of substrate (habitat change, interaction with seafloor, contaminant release)
Navigational Dredging Capital dredging - extraction of substrate (habitat change, interaction with seafloor, contaminant release, increased turbidity, noise)
Maintenance dredging and associated extraction of substrate (habitat change, interaction with seafloor, contaminant release, increased turbidity, noise)
Coastal Infrastructure Construction of artificial reefs (interaction with seafloor, habitat change)
Construction of culverted lagoons (interaction with seafloor, habitat change, smothering, increased turbidity, noise)
Construction of marinas and dock/port facilities (habitat change, sealing, interaction with seafloor, smothering, increased turbidity, noise)
Operation of marinas and dock/port facilities (anti-fouling, contaminants, interaction with seafloor from anchoring, litter)
Construction of land claim projects (habitat change, smothering, increased turbidity, noise)
Construction of coastal defences - sea walls/breakwaters/groynes etc (habitat change, sealing, interaction with seafloor, smothering, increased turbidity, noise)
Tourism/Recreation Angling (catch, bycatch, interaction with seafloor (gear, and anchors if offshore))
Boating/Yachting/Diving/Water sports - mooring/anchoring/beaching/launching (interaction with seafloor)
Public use of beach - general (trampling, litter)
Construction of tourist Resort (habitat change, sealing, smothering, increased turbidity, noise)
Military Military activity - mooring/anchoring/beaching/launching (interaction with seafloor)
Research Research operations (specific to activity but can include: interaction with seafloor, catch, bycatch)
Harvesting/Collecting Bait digging - (trampling, interaction with seafloor, removal of habitat-structuring species)
Seaweed and saltmarsh vegetation harvesting (trampling, interaction with seafloor, removal of habitat-structuring species)
Bird egg collection - (trampling, removal of individuals)
Shellfish hand collecting - (trampling, interaction with seafloor, removal of individuals)
Collection of peels/peeler crabs (boulder turning) - (trampling, removal of individuals)
Collection of curios - (trampling)
63
Figure 15. Physical state changes associated with abrasion that potentially lead to an overall loss of seafloor integrity, and consequent biological state changes (at population, community or ecosystem level) that would be detected by Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) indicators.
Whilst the full range of possible relationships is extremely complex and impossible to show
diagrammatically, it may be possible to define certain critical causal pathways by filtering the range of
potential causal chains by considering only one specific instance within any one of the intermediary
stages. Such a filter could be based on a particular physical mechanism, or on a given activity and MSFD
descriptor. For example, for a given activity a range of physical state changes may be brought about. In
turn these state changes may potentially affect a number of MSFD descriptors, as well as giving rise to a
range of biological state changes. It is important to note that the pressures (and the consequent
physico-chemical and biological state changes) do not occur in isolation but, notwithstanding this, this
model structure lends itself to assessment using a BowTie approach and so provides a linkage between
consideration of the pressure-state change element of the DPSIR framework and RARM methodologies
(see Section 3.2.4.).
As indicated above, the approach recommended here is a linked DPSIR and BowTie system, hence using
DPSIR-BT. This then aligns with Cormier et al. (2013) who indicated that the BowTie method supports
the expansion of the initial DPSIR environmental cause-and-effect pathway. Again, by having the Threats
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for pressure links
64
as Drivers and Pressures, and the Main Event and Consequences as State Changes and Impacts, then the
link between these constitutes the Risk Assessment. The Risk Management then comprises of the
Responses to the Drivers, Pressures and State changes by placing preventative and
mitigation/compensation measures in the framework. Hence, we emphasise that the DEVOTES
Conceptual model of DPSIR-BT also aligns with the demands of RARM (Risk Assessment and Risk
Management). Following this, it is then straightforward to link this approach to the implementation of
the MSFD. For example, in so doing, considering the failure to attain GEnS for a MSFD descriptor as both
a state change and as an intermediary stage between physical state changes on the one hand and
consequential biological state changes on the other is important; it allows a formalised assessment to be
made of possible controls to remove or reduce the production of the physical mechanism and/or
opportunities to mitigate its effects.
7. Data Challenges in Moving from Conceptual
Frameworks to Assessments
In making an assessment concerning an environmental or management issue, there are many challenges
in moving from a conceptual framework to a data-based or expert judgement-based analysis. These
challenges involve the identification of all the components and their linkages (e.g. DPS) within the
greater problem, components data/indicators and their quality or thresholds, etc. In the following
section, these issues/challenges are described further including data availability, equality of data from
different areas, assessment scales and scaling up assessments, and finally confidence in the
assessments.
7.1. Regional Seas
The regional seas surrounding Europe cover around 11,220,000 km2 (EEA, 2014) and include a wide
range of environmental conditions and different ecosystems, which vary in diversity and sensitivity. The
particular characteristics of each area play a key role in the types of human activities developed there,
and consequently, in the pressures that take place. An ecosystem overview of the European regional
seas is available in the DEVOTES Deliverables D1.4 (Patrício et al., 2014) and D3.1 (Teixeira et al., 2014).
These highlight the specific features of those areas that could be relevant to regional monitoring
programs and give context to the existing indicators and the observed gaps.
65
Pressures in one regional area may not elicit the same response (impact or spatial/temporal scale of
impact) in another area because of differing conditions. For example, the Mediterranean Sea is
characterised by high salinity, high temperatures, predominantly wind driven or water mass difference
driven currents, deep water, oligotrophic sea with a fauna exhibiting low abundance and biomass. In
contrast northern waters have opposing characteristics where, for example, tidally driven mixing may
distribute the effects of a pressure in a very different impact footprint.
The regional seas also have contrasting developmental and socio-economic situations and issues
resulting in different complex and fragmented governance systems (Raakjaer et al., 2014), levels of
legislation and compliance. Although each of the regional seas have their own conventions (see Box 4)
with similar objectives and targets, the strength and applications greatly differ from the northern
Regions to the Mediterranean and Black Sea reflecting the cohesiveness of EU Member States and
related developed countries to the areas bordered by a higher number of non-EU Member States with
lower states of development, lower standards of living and higher degrees of regional instabilities.
An outcome of geographically differing stages of development is generally seen in the status and depth
of monitoring programmes that can produce data required in assessments in terms of Drivers, Pressures
and State change. Whilst aided by the establishment of conventions and directives, there still may be
large differences between nations in one regional sea where monitoring programmes may not be
contiguous across bordering nations or where the extent and quality of the data may differ.
BOX 4. R e g i o n a l S e a s F u n d a m e n t a l C o n v e n t i o n s
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
North-East Atlantic: The Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic – Oslo and Paris conventions (adopted 1974, revised and combined into OSPAR Convention 1992, in force 1998)
Baltic Sea: Convention on the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area (Helsinki Convention), adopted 1974, in force 1980, revised 1992, in force 2000)
Mediterranean Sea: The Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment and the Coastal Region of the Mediterranean (Barcelona Convention); adopted on 16 February 1976, in force 12 February 1978; revised in Barcelona, Spain, 9-10 June 1995 as the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment and the Coastal Region of the Mediterranean (not yet in force).
Black Sea Convention on the Protection of the Black Sea Against Pollution (Bucharest Convention); adopted 1992, in force 1994.
From UNEP (Regional Seas Conventions and Protocols. UNEP and Partner Programmes. www.unep.ch/regionalseas/main/hconlist.html#pp)
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for pressure links
66
7.2. Data Availability
Within a causal link framework and to provide the route for management, indicators and their
component indices/metrics are needed to determine the level of pressure, and changes in state and in
the impact (e.g. Aubry and Elliott, 2006). To do this, the beginning or end points of the gradient of state
change can be used to determine targets or reference conditions for the assessment of the indicators
(see Borja et al., 2012). These changes in state need to be assessed by developing assessment methods
or indices such as those within the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) (Birk et al., 2012).
However, they need to be validated and calibrated against independent abiotic datasets. Taking into
consideration the MSFD descriptors, some of them can be related to pressures, whilst others, such as
biological diversity (D1), non-indigenous species (D2), food-webs (D4) and seafloor Integrity (D6), are
related to state change (Figure 16). Therefore, data collection and analysis is needed to assess the
effects that activities could have on the physical, chemical and biological quality of the marine
environment.
Figure 16. Diagram showing the relationships between drivers, pressures, state of change, impacts and responses, together with the way in which they can be assessed and the relationship with the Marine Strategy Framework Directive descriptors (D). BPJ: Best professional judgment. Modified from Borja et al. (2012).
Considering that the DEVOTES assessments will require drivers, pressures and state-change, the
available data catalogued in the DEVOTES project is a valuable starting point (see following sections).
However, it has to borne in mind that the same pressure can be caused by several activities and can
produce a different state-change depending on the location where is produced. Therefore, for a
particular assessment in a geographical area, the identification of all the relevant activities, pressures,
states and their indicators is necessary in each case. Moreover, in order to assess the status of the
marine environment, there is also the need to identify the linkages (cause-effect interactions) between
67
them. ODEMM’s linkage framework (Koss et al., 2011 and Knights et al., 2013), for example, provides a
means to fully evaluate all components that can affect the GEnS achievement in a fully integrated
ecosystem assessment.
Applying the framework presented here relies on having not only indices of change but also baselines,
thresholds and targets against which to judge that change. In addition, there is the need to define the
inherent variability (‘noise’) against which the ‘signal’ of change is measured. Each of these requires a
fit-for-purpose data background for each biological and physico-chemical component relevant to a
particular stressor. Given that for many activities, the amount of pressure required to produce a given
state change and thus impact on human welfare is unknown then the amount of data required to
determine and asses the state change is also unknown. Furthermore, although power analysis could be
used to determine the amount of data required to implement the Risk Assessment framework described
here, that cannot be used unless the inherent variability in the components is known. Because of this, it
is likely that the approaches advocated here will continue to be semi-qualitative at best and reliant on
expert judgement (see below).
7.2.1. Drivers
As previously noted in Section 3.1.1, approximately 20 standard sectors and over 100 activities have
been defined and characterised through several projects (e.g. ODEMM, CO-EXIST, VECTORS). At the
European level, the European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODnet;
http://www.emodnet.eu/) is currently developing a portal (http://www.emodnet-
humanactivities.eu/index.php) which will provide access to marine data for some of the human
activities considered in the ODEMM project. Although currently few data sets are available, in the near
future the parameters considered should include the geographical position and spatial extent of many
marine activities. At a regional sea level, geographic data on human activities are available for some
seas, due to the work done by some Regional Seas Conventions. In the OSPAR Maritime Area, for
example, activities such as offshore wind-farms, offshore installations or marine protected areas are
mapped (www.ospar.org/content/content.asp?menu=01511400000000_000000_000000), while in the
HELCOM area (http://maps.helcom.fi/website/mapservice/index.html) a wider range of activities are
included. Additionally, ocean databases are available for some European countries, which have mapped
a wide range of human uses of the marine environment. The German CONTIS maps (developed by the
BSH, www.bsh.de/en/Marine_uses/Industry/CONTIS_maps/index.jsp), for example, present the spatial
extent of individual uses (e.g., on shipping, exploitation of resources, planned offshore wind farms or
environmentally sensitive areas) and interfaces with other users in the German continental shelf, for
both the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. The Coastal Atlas of Belgium (www.coastalatlas.be/map/) also
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for pressure links
68
has digital geographic data on uses of the North Sea, while the functions and uses of the Dutch
Continental Shelf are shown in the pdf maps available at the Noordzeeloket web page
(www.noordzeeloket.nl/en/functions-and-use/). In the UK, The Crown Estate gives a general overview
of the coastal and offshore marine activities in regularly updated maps and/or GIS data
(www.thecrownestate.co.uk/).
7.2.2. Pressures
The DEVOTES Deliverable D1.4 (Patrício et al., 2014) analyses the gaps in monitoring networks related
with pressures per analysed at Regional Sea and subregional level. The interactive maps prepared
identify the pressures that are currently being assessed, considering the full pressures list. The list
originated from the MSFD (EC, 2008) with added emergent or current threats identified in the ODEMM
project (Koss et al., 2011), and additional unmanageable widespread pressures (exogenous pressures or
climate change) added in the DEVOTES project (Mazik et al., 2013): a total of 31 standard pressures.
Overall, monitoring programmes undertaken within the European marine regions address all considered
pressures; however, not all pressures are assessed in all subregions (some of the implemented
programmes have demonstrated capability to assess up to 20 pressures at once, but most programmes
assess four or less pressures). It should be noted that even where these pressures are monitored, their
impact on many biodiversity components is not well understood and therefore, cannot be used
quantitatively in the environmental assessment although a semi-quantitative or expert judgement
approach may provide a valuable starting point.
7.2.3. State-Change
The DEVOTES Deliverable D3.1 Catalogue of Indicators (Teixeira et al., 2014) reviews of the current
capabilities of the existing environmental indicators, in the context of the MSFD. It shows the availability
of the indicators for addressing specific relevant pressures in the EU regional seas and can be queried
through DEVOTool, a special software tool developed to host the catalogue (www.devotes-
project.eu/devotool/). This catalogue is complementary to the DEVOTES Deliverable D4.1 Catalogue of
Model-derived Indicators (Piroddi et al., 2013). Analysis of the catalogue has shown that, for European
regional seas, gaps exist mainly for indicators to address ecosystem structure, processes and functions,
indicators for genetic diversity, the effects of non-indigenous invasive species, and indicators related to
food-web structure and functioning (productivity and size distribution).
69
7.3. Assessment Scales and scaling up to regional seas
The connections between ecosystem features and human activities (and their related pressures) should
determine the appropriate scale at which an ecosystem-based approach should be implemented.
Defining these scales and their boundaries is an imperative for any ecosystem-based approach
management (EEA, 2014).
For a well monitored small bay, a comprehensive assessment can be normally made, because the
drivers, pressures and state-changes could be well understood, mapped and assessed. However, at a
larger scale, some issues may be well known, but some are not; some areas have quantitative data,
some have no-data, and a more widespread range of very differing habitats may be included. As Borja et
al. (2013) have pointed out, the fundamental challenge of arriving at a regional quality status is by either
having a broad approach and omitting or down-weighting point-source problems or summing the point-
source problems (which may cover only a very small area) to indicate the quality status of the whole
area. State-change becomes much more complicated and diverse. An important problem could also be
the mismatch between the quantitative pressure information and the quantitative information from
different descriptors and biodiversity components, at large scale (i.e. regional or sub-regional sea),
making the assessment of the response of indicators of change at such large level difficult. During the
phase of implementation of the MSFD, and the baseline assessment on the state of marine waters in the
EU has allowed a better understanding of pressures and impacts from human activities on marine life.
Although most Member States have reported on most descriptors, providing a very broad overview of
the marine environment in Europe, the quality of reporting varies widely from country to country, and
within individual Member States, from one descriptor to another (EC, 2014).
In addition, when different countries are involved in the assessment, the relevant information may
come from many different sources, which each have their own assessment timescales, aims, indicators,
criteria, targets and baseline values. In the ODEMM project, the available information on the status and
trends of ecological characteristics, impacts on those characteristics, and pressures from human
activities, by regional sea, have been identified. The summary information is a useful compendium of all
recent status assessments by regional sea (Knights et al., 2011).
7.4. Levels of Confidence
A conceptual framework such as DPSIR allows the view of key components and interactions of an
ecosystem problem. However when moving to the next step of assessment, involving the use and
distillation of a wide variety of data, confidence in the outcome becomes an issue for both the assessors
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for pressure links
70
and the users of the assessment. The level of confidence in an assessment depends on the degree of
uncertainty associated with the basis for the determination, including the adequacy of available data,
knowledge, and understanding about the environmental component being assessed, the proposed
technology, the nature of the project-environment interaction, and the efficacy of proposed mitigation
(Horvath, 2013). Determining the degree of uncertainty also requires distinguishing between lack of
knowledge and natural variability (Hoffman and Hammonds, 1994). Uncertainty in the future forecasted
state (due to lack of long-term data sets and historical data and/or spatio-temporal variability of a
biological indicator) as well as uncertainty in the resulting ecosystem state post management action
present challenges in target setting (Knights et al., 2014b). In most cases, uncertainty is addressed
through monitoring programmes that have adequate spatio-temporal coverage (Borja et al., 2010),
although the absence of reference conditions or clear targets to be achieved makes it difficult to
establish an accurate assessment (Borja et al., 2012). However, confidence can also be given through a
range of methods from cumulative qualitative assessment of each metric and, for example, a traffic-light
overall confidence assessment to a separate quantitative confidence metric (e.g. Anderson et al., 2010).
Despite this, the largest amount of uncertainty lay in the fact that the end points of any assessment (as
the determination of deviation from that expected in a physico-chemical or biological component) are
poorly defined. If the agreed targets against which indices and metrics are judged as not sufficiently well
defined, then the status of the area is uncertain. Hence, in determining whether an area is in GEnS due
to a low pressure influence may indicate that, for example, there is 60% confidence that the area is in
good status and 40% that it is not. This may be decided for one of the Descriptors but as yet the final
rules on aggregating Descriptors (and criteria and indices) have not yet been agreed (see Borja et al., in
press). Hence, any uncertainty for any one Descriptor in defining GEnS is then compounded across all
the Descriptors.
8. Concluding remarks
This document has defined, described and reviewed Conceptual Frameworks for management and
assessment purposes as well as refining the methodology for biodiversity assessments. By showing the
predominant use of the DPSIR framework and its derivatives as a Risk Assessment and Risk Management
tool, this report presents the generic approach and shows that there is a practical limit regarding the
value of conceptual models and diagrams. Whilst they are of value in an abstract or generic application,
the underlying complexity of the systems under consideration means that specific applications cannot
be easily shown diagrammatically. In such instances, and in common with earlier work that considered
71
simple pressure-impact linkages, the most straightforward option for assessing specific examples of this
conceptual model is to record relationships between successive stages by means of matrices.
Subsequently, matrices and linkages can be compiled within a database and interrogated and analysed
by means of interactive data filters. Such an approach facilitates the extraction of information for
specific stages of the overall process, which can then be used as the input to other techniques, such as
BowTie analysis.
In emphasising the complexity of the marine system, here we show that although creating a system
which covers all eventualities (all activities, pressures, state changes and impacts on human welfare and
the links between these) is a laudable aim, it is more profitable to focus on a problem-based approach.
Hence for any specific area (e.g. a Regional Sea, eco-region or sub-ecoregion) to determine the ranked
priority pressures based on the number of activities. Each of these can then be addressed through the
proposed DPSIR-BowTie (DPSIR-BT) linked approach in which we can address the main risks and hazards
creating pressures, and thus the Main Event of concern (Smyth and Elliott, 2014).
The challenge for marine management, as shown here, is to apply that linked DPSIR-BT approach for the
area being managed. As shown here, by focussing on the Risk Assessment approach, i.e. the pressures
as mechanisms causing the State Changes and Impacts on Human Welfare (and so ultimately impacting
on Ecosystem Services and Societal Benefits, a la Atkins et al. (2011)), then by definition management
measures for prevention and mitigation/compensation can be implemented; hence the latter being the
Responses under DPSIR and the means by which the Responses address the Drivers and Pressures (and
State changes) becomes the Risk Management framework (see Elliott, 2014 in press).
A further challenge, again given the complexity of the marine system, its uses and users, is its ability to
respond to Exogenic Unmanaged Pressures as well as the Endogenic Managed Pressures, the latter the
focus of much of the current review. Although outside the scope of the current review, superimposed
on the activity-pressure-state change (impact) chain described here is external pressures such as climate
change. Hence management not only has to provide the Responses to the causes and consequences of
change due to system internal pressures but also the Responses to the consequences of external
pressures. Because of this, the application of the proposed scheme to cumulative and in-combination
pressures, as discussed here, is also an imminent challenge. It is of note that ICES (2014) has
recommended that the BowTie framework is used to address cumulative and in-combination pressures
and their consequences.
Deliverable 1.1. Conceptual models for pressure links
72
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