composition of the threat terrorist groups state actors/military other (piracy, criminal) general...
TRANSCRIPT
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Composition of the Threat
• Terrorist Groups
• State Actors/Military
• Other (Piracy, Criminal)
• General Trends– Attacks increasing– Targets– Locations
Trend: No recent attacks on maritime infrastructure in the Arabian Gulf
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Al-Qaeda / ISIL Threat Trend
• Motive– Doctrinal– Economic – Strategic
• Access– Unstable regions/insurgencies– ISIL lacks access to S. Iraq / Arabian Gulf
• Capability– No attacks on oil platforms since 2004
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Strong motive; partial access; modest capability
• Notable Incidents‒ July 2010, AQ suicide boat attack on M/V M. STAR‒ April 2004, coordinated AQ attack on ABOT and KAAOT
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Iranian Military Threat Trend
• Motive– Lacking at this time– Engaged in multiple diplomatic efforts– Marketing navies as “protectors”– Subject to change
• Access– Full access to infrastructure throughout Gulf– Expanding ranges of stand-off weapons– Increasing naval reach
• Capability– Largest, most active naval forces in Gulf– Ballistic missiles range coastal infrastructure– Robust maritime special operations forces– Historical experience of infrastructure seizure
• Notable Incident– August 2006, Iranian Navy attacks Orizont offshore oil rig– April 1998, Iranian Navy attacks ships/ rig in UAE oil field– November 1980, Iranian commandos destroy 2 Iraqi OPLATs
4No current motive; broad access; robust capability