complex adaptive systems and international security analysis
DESCRIPTION
Overview of how various USG agencies use CAS concepts for analysis of international security problems. Presented as a university seminar to graduate students in international security policy studies at University of MarylandTRANSCRIPT
Understanding WMD Proliferation: Applying Complex
Adaptive Systems Theory
Understanding WMD Proliferation: Applying Complex
Adaptive Systems Theory
Nancy K. [email protected]
December 1, 2011
Nancy K. [email protected]
December 1, 2011
Life is not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be lived. Thomas Merton
Life is not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be lived. Thomas Merton
Some problems are so complex that you have to be highly intelligent and well-informed just to be
undecided about them.Laurence J. Pete
If a factory is torn down, but the rationality which produced it is left standing, then that rationality will
simply produce another factory. If a revolution destroys a government, but the systematic patterns
of thought that produced that government are left intact, then those patterns will repeat themselves…
There’s so much talk about the system. And so little understanding.
Robert Pirsig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
OverviewOverview Policy analysis framework
Policy questions and wicked problems Systems perspective
Complex adaptive systems (CAS) What kinds of systems are there and how do they behave? What are the structures, properties and behaviors of CAS? How are they measured? What kinds of analytic tools are useful?
Policy Applications Situational awareness - network analysis Predicting behaviors - agent based modeling and system
dynamics
Policy analysis framework Policy questions and wicked problems Systems perspective
Complex adaptive systems (CAS) What kinds of systems are there and how do they behave? What are the structures, properties and behaviors of CAS? How are they measured? What kinds of analytic tools are useful?
Policy Applications Situational awareness - network analysis Predicting behaviors - agent based modeling and system
dynamics
Analysis Questions Common to International Security Policy
Analysis Questions Common to International Security Policy
Situational Awareness Who are Key Players? What are their
intentions? Behavior Prediction What are the
“influence levers? How do we stop them
if we can’t influence them?
How can we change the outcomes?
Situational Awareness Who are Key Players? What are their
intentions? Behavior Prediction What are the
“influence levers? How do we stop them
if we can’t influence them?
How can we change the outcomes?
WMD Proliferation
Social movementsCivil conflictMilitary strategyIslamic radicalizationEnergy & EnvironmentTerrorismDemocratization and stability
Analysis Questions involve Complex
Adaptive SOCIAL Systems
Analysis Questions involve Complex
Adaptive SOCIAL SystemsPurposeful agents: leaders and followers
“Key players”Intentions
Self-organizing and adaptive: “levers of influence” and collective action
I. Structure - nodes and linkages Key organizations, relationships,
goals Origins, resources and support
II. Dynamics - transactions What are the dominant transactions
and rates over time? What are the system chokepoints
and limitations for transactions? How do structures evolve over time
and what are emergent properties? What are structural reactions to
exogenously imposed events?
Purposeful agents: leaders and followers“Key players”Intentions
Self-organizing and adaptive: “levers of influence” and collective action
I. Structure - nodes and linkages Key organizations, relationships,
goals Origins, resources and support
II. Dynamics - transactions What are the dominant transactions
and rates over time? What are the system chokepoints
and limitations for transactions? How do structures evolve over time
and what are emergent properties? What are structural reactions to
exogenously imposed events?
WMD proliferation
Democratic stabilitySocial movementsCivil conflictMilitary strategyDomestic securityIslamic radicalizationEnergy and EnvironmentTerrorismEconomic prosperity
A wicked problem is one for which each attempt to create a solution changes the understanding of the problem. Wicked problems cannot be solved in a traditional linear fashion, because the problem definition
evolves as new possible solutions are considered and/or implemented.
Social Complexity Creates “Wicked Problems” for
Policy Analysts
Social Complexity Creates “Wicked Problems” for
Policy Analysts
Characteristics of Wicked ProblemsCharacteristics of Wicked Problems
1. There is no definitive formulation of “the problem” …you don’t understand it till you solve it.
2. There is no end to the problem.3. Solutions are not true-or-false, but good-or-bad.4. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to the
problem. Every instantiation of the problem is essentially unique.5. Every solution to the problem is a “one-shot operation”; because
there is no opportunity to learn by trial-and-error, every attempt counts significantly.
6. There is not an enumerable set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible operations that may be incorporated into a plan.
7. The problem is actually a symptom of another problem.8. The existence of discrepancies when representing the problem
can be explained in numerous ways. 9. The choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem’s
resolution.10. The planner has no right to be wrong.
1. There is no definitive formulation of “the problem” …you don’t understand it till you solve it.
2. There is no end to the problem.3. Solutions are not true-or-false, but good-or-bad.4. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to the
problem. Every instantiation of the problem is essentially unique.5. Every solution to the problem is a “one-shot operation”; because
there is no opportunity to learn by trial-and-error, every attempt counts significantly.
6. There is not an enumerable set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible operations that may be incorporated into a plan.
7. The problem is actually a symptom of another problem.8. The existence of discrepancies when representing the problem
can be explained in numerous ways. 9. The choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem’s
resolution.10. The planner has no right to be wrong.
Definitions IDefinitions ISystem: an internally organized whole where elements are so
intimately connected that they operate as one in relation to external conditions and other systems. An element may be defined as the minimal unit performing a definite function in the
System: an internally organized whole where elements are so intimately connected that they operate as one in relation to external conditions and other systems. An element may be defined as the minimal unit performing a definite function in the
Complex system : one whose elements may also be regarded as systems or subsystems.
Structure: implies not only the position of elements in space but also their movement in time, their sequence and rhythm, the law of mutation of a process. It is the law or set of laws that determine a system's composition and functioning, its properties and stability. Any breakdown in structure, any deformation of an organ leads to a distortion of the function.
Function organizes structure.Structure determines function
whole.
Str
uctu
ral C
ompl
exity
Randomness0 1
Definitions II Structure: Simple, Complex,
Random
Definitions II Structure: Simple, Complex,
Random
Innovation Surprise
Unpredictable
Ordered
Random
Complex
Structure and Dynamics Related to State of System
Structure and Dynamics Related to State of System
Closed or OpenStatic or Dynamic
Equilibrium or Disequilibrium
Ordered, Complex, Chaos and/or Random
Closed or OpenStatic or Dynamic
Equilibrium or Disequilibrium
Ordered, Complex, Chaos and/or Random
2. States change over time through predictable
mechanisms…
2. States change over time through predictable
mechanisms…
…affecting structural form, function, and behaviors.
1. Systems in different states should be analyzed and
managed differently
1. Systems in different states should be analyzed and
managed differently
Two Key Points Two Key Points
Policy Analysis Example 1Policy Analysis Example 1
OSD: How can we detect adversary technological and/or procedural innovation?
Approach: Network analysis
OSD: How can we detect adversary technological and/or procedural innovation?
Approach: Network analysis
Network Structures Enable Different Types of Behaviors and
Outcomes
Network Structures Enable Different Types of Behaviors and
Outcomes
Giant StarHigh School Friendships
High School Dating Web SitesYeast Proteins
TB Contagion
Small Worlds
Cliques
Books on Politics
Weak Links
Freshwater Food Web
Ring
Connected Ring
Trees
Structural components Connectivity Centrality, betweeness Degree Clustering Path length
Dynamic components Resilience Transmissivity Directionality Reciprocity…
Structural components Connectivity Centrality, betweeness Degree Clustering Path length
Dynamic components Resilience Transmissivity Directionality Reciprocity…
Network MetricsNetwork Metrics
System Behavior•Technical innovation•WMD proliferation•Disease propagation•Ideological diffusion•Resource production•Violence propagation
Change Mechanisms Vary Relative to Structure and
State Timing, Intentionality, Discovery
Change Mechanisms Vary Relative to Structure and
State Timing, Intentionality, Discovery
Mutation: random or accidental variation (DNA sequencing)
Adaptation: processes whereby elements in a system become better suited to their environment (Gelman’s three levels)
1. Evolution (Darwin): natural selection of mutants with improved fitness; occurs smoothly and continuously over many generations
2. Co-evolution: the existence of one species is tightly bound up with the life of another species
3. Learning: acquiring new or modifying existing knowledge, behaviors, skills, values, or preferences; may involve synthesizing different types of information (imitation, repetition).
Punctuated Equilibrium (Gould, Mayer): systems remain in an extended state of stasis for most of their history. Significant evolutionary change occurs rarely, and when it does so, it is rapid and involves branching speciation (discovery, innovation, surprise)
Mutation: random or accidental variation (DNA sequencing)
Adaptation: processes whereby elements in a system become better suited to their environment (Gelman’s three levels)
1. Evolution (Darwin): natural selection of mutants with improved fitness; occurs smoothly and continuously over many generations
2. Co-evolution: the existence of one species is tightly bound up with the life of another species
3. Learning: acquiring new or modifying existing knowledge, behaviors, skills, values, or preferences; may involve synthesizing different types of information (imitation, repetition).
Punctuated Equilibrium (Gould, Mayer): systems remain in an extended state of stasis for most of their history. Significant evolutionary change occurs rarely, and when it does so, it is rapid and involves branching speciation (discovery, innovation, surprise)
Network StructuresNetwork StructuresState System State System
Predict Adaptive Adversary Behaviors and Most Effective Policy
OSD Solution: Use network metrics to anticipate and disrupt potential innovation
paths
OSD Solution: Use network metrics to anticipate and disrupt potential innovation
paths
Policy StrategiesPolicy Strategies
Policy Analysis Example 2: IC efforts to Prevent Terrorism
Policy Analysis Example 2: IC efforts to Prevent Terrorism
The key is to better understand the future—plan to change it, and change it
Develop Understanding
Logistics/Infrastructure
Social/psychological
Simulation
Gaming, Statistics, Modeling
MOADB
indications& warnings
increasehope
warn first respondersmanipulate - deceive -
control - dissuade - deter - destroy
enhancedcollection
scenario drivenhypothesis
Policy decisions
Reality
mitigate
Terrorism: It’s About People
Terrorism: It’s About People
Assumptions•Poor economic conditions and low human Capital Development in Arab world will continue
•Cultural Histories, ethnic tensions, hate, superstition, conspiracy…will continue to expound victimization narratives
•Role of US/Israel as crusaders against backdrop of changing balance of powers (EU, Asia,..)
•Fundamental religious movements will continue (?) to foster rebellion against modernism
Samuel Huntington The Clash of Civilizations
Solution Approach:Agent Based ModelingSimple rules of interaction
High loyalty = cooperation , collaborationLow Loyalty = competition, attack
Policy Example 3: Predicting Collective
Action/Reactions
Policy Example 3: Predicting Collective
Action/Reactions
What will adversary military responses be to US counter-proliferation policy?
How do domestic social factors shape adversary military policies for WMD?
What are the interdependencies between the two questions?
What will adversary military responses be to US counter-proliferation policy?
How do domestic social factors shape adversary military policies for WMD?
What are the interdependencies between the two questions?
Solution Approach: System Dynamics
Modeling System Dynamics
Modeling System Dynamics
Structure: defined by components and composition Agent Behavior: involves interaction rules
cooperative/competitive; directional; positive/negative; attracting/repelling; linear/non-linear; …. Aggregate Behavior: involves input flows, processing and outputs of material, energy, information, or data Interconnectivity: the various parts of a system have
functional as well as structural relationships to each other.
Structure: defined by components and composition Agent Behavior: involves interaction rules
cooperative/competitive; directional; positive/negative; attracting/repelling; linear/non-linear; …. Aggregate Behavior: involves input flows, processing and outputs of material, energy, information, or data Interconnectivity: the various parts of a system have
functional as well as structural relationships to each other.
Causal Loop Diagram with Feedback
System Dynamics modeling yields non-intuitive insights into relationships between stocks, flows, and agent interactions.
DHS problem: Understanding Islamic
Radicalization
DHS problem: Understanding Islamic
RadicalizationExplore Social Movement Theory in
context of Islamic countriesExplanatory power or origins and
influencesPredictive power of policy outcomesIndications and warnings
Explore Social Movement Theory in context of Islamic countriesExplanatory power or origins and
influencesPredictive power of policy outcomesIndications and warnings
Arab SpringArab Spring
Democracy: What new political opportunity structures have opened up (closed) for movements and their participants and how will new players view WMD policies of Middle East?
Economic restructuring: What are new pathways for generating and mobilizing resources to redress social/economic grievances and how will these impact military/security budgets?
Democracy: What new political opportunity structures have opened up (closed) for movements and their participants and how will new players view WMD policies of Middle East?
Economic restructuring: What are new pathways for generating and mobilizing resources to redress social/economic grievances and how will these impact military/security budgets?
SMO Membership
~
generate well being2
ISN activism
~
smo activisim
SMO assets
public well being
potential SMO supporters
~
sympathizing
joining
~
international partners
SMO provision of social services
fundraising
SERVICES PER ASSET
average resources per person
SMO PROVIDED SS
sympathizers per social service
generate well being
~
well being per SMO service
~
conversion potential to joiners
resources per partner
SMO PROVIDED SS
GNP
public well being
satisfied people per well being
leaving
~
STATE PROVIDED SS 1
SMO PROVIDED SOCIAL SERVICES
SUBMODULE A : Resource Mobilization and Public Well-being
SUBMODULE B: Resource Mobilization and Public Well-being
state strength
~
generate well being2
state provision of social services
military spending
~
state repression
public well being
ISN activism
~
~
SMO provision of social services
state assets
generate money
smo activisim
generate well being
well being per state social service
~
~
STATE PROVIDED SS
state services per asset
corruption
freedom index tax collection
GNP
public well being
military spending rate
tax rates
tax enforcement
~corruption
STATE PROVIDED SS 1
SMO PROVIDED SOCIAL SERVICES
0
500
1000
1000
1
8
15
2
1.0
5.0
9.0
8.0
1
3
5
2
0
50
100
0
U
0.0900
0.0000 1.0000
~
well being per SMO service
ISN activism
well being per state social service
state strength
0.0900
0.0000 1.0000
~
0.0000
0.0000 1.0000
~
1
1 100
~
0.6100
0.0000 1.0000
~
1.000
1.000 100.000
~
10
60
100
10
Model draws on concets in TIARA report SAND 0009-0325. Looks at Resource Mobilization related to economy, social services provided, and SMO versus state as providers. Assumes no political opportunity structure for contenders within state as alternative providers
Country Parametersparameters conditions
policy Levers
Model Initialization
Theoretical Assumptions
2:27 AM Thu, Dec 1, 2011
Relative contributions to public well being: Tax rate = 0.1
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Relative contributions to public well being: Tax rate = 0.5
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Putting it all together: Frame the Problem
Putting it all together: Frame the Problem
Foreca
st
Question EpistemologyInformation
Density/unit time
System Complexity
Describ
e
Explore
Interpre
t
Infer
Suggest
Analysis approachdepends on what question
is being asked, in what timeframe
Predict
ObservationTable Top Exercises
Systems Thinking and National Security
Systems Thinking and National Security
Foreca
st
Question Epistemology
Information
Density/unit time
System Complexity
Describ
eExp
lore
Interpre
tInfer
Predict
Law Enforcement
Explain
Case StudiesField Surveys
Statistical AnalysisSocial Network
Analysis
Academic emphasisRemote Sensing
Evidentiary Reasoning
Red TeamingGaming
Network Analysis
Modeling & Simulation
Intelligence/security Analysts
SummarySummaryComplex adaptive systems framework
provides powerful tool for ISEP analysis:CAS Are wicked, purposeful, and unpredictableCo-exist with other kinds of system statesDevelop structure to serve function
Can be understood by observing structureCan be shaped by their structure and transactionsEmergent behavior can be anticipated/measured
using structural and dynamic metrics
Create new CAS
Complex adaptive systems framework provides powerful tool for ISEP analysis:CAS Are wicked, purposeful, and unpredictableCo-exist with other kinds of system statesDevelop structure to serve function
Can be understood by observing structureCan be shaped by their structure and transactionsEmergent behavior can be anticipated/measured
using structural and dynamic metrics
Create new CAS