A Foray Into Complexity

Nancy K. Hayden

nkhayde@sandia.govSeptember 26, 2011

I haven't a clue as to how my story will end. But that's all right. When you set out on a journey and night covers the road, that's when you discover the stars.

Nancy Willard

Life is not a problem to be solved, but a mystery to be lived.

Thomas Merton

Blessed are the curious

for they shall have

adventures.Lovell Drachman

Some problems are so complex

that you have to be highly

intelligent and well- informed

just to be undecided about

them.Laurence J. Pete

Outline• Definitions

– What constitutes a system? – What does it mean to be simple? complex? adaptive?

• System Dynamics– What kinds of systems are there and how do they behave?– What are the structures, properties and behaviors of CAS?– How are they measured?

• Wicked Problems• Application to Terrorism and National Security

– Shaping and/or predicting behaviors

DefinitionsSystem: an internally organized whole where elements are so

intimately connected that they operate as one in relation to external conditions and other systems. An element may be defined as the minimal unit performing a definite function in the

Complex system : one whose elements may also be regarded as systems or subsystems.

whole. Every system forms a whole, but not every whole is a system.

Structure: implies not only the position of elements in space but also their movement in time, their sequence and rhythm, the law of mutation of a process. It is the law or set of laws that determine a system's composition and functioning, its properties and stability. Any breakdown in structure, any deformation of an organ leads to a distortion of the function.

Function organizes structure.Structure determines function

Some Important System Characteristics to Consider

Closed or OpenStatic or DynamicBounded or unboundedEquilibrium or DisequilibriumOrdered, Complex, Chaos and/or

Random

Str

uctu

ral C

ompl

exity

Randomness0 1

Measuring ComplexityInnovation

SurpriseUnpredictable

Ordered Complex Random

System State Can Change…

…affecting structural form, function, and behaviors

Structure and Behaviors

System Dynamics• Structure: defined by components and composition• Behavior: involves inputs, processing and outputs of material, energy, information, or data• Interconnectivity: the various parts of a system have

functional as well as structural relationships to each other.• Interactions: cooperative/competitive; directional; positive/negative; attracting/repelling; linear/non-linear; ….

Change Mechanisms in SystemsVary in Timing, Intentionality, Discovery

• Mutation: random or accidental variation (DNA sequencing)• Evolution (Darwin): natural selection of mutants with improved

fitness; occurs smoothly and continuously over many generations• Co-evolution: the existence of one species is tightly bound up with

the life of another species• Learning: acquiring new or modifying existing knowledge, behaviors,

skills, values, or preferences; may involve synthesizing different types of information (imitation, repetition).

• Adaptation: processes whereby elements in a system become better suited to their environment (three levels)

• Punctuated Equilibrium (Gould, Mayer): systems remain in an extended state of stasis for most of their history. Significant evolutionary change occurs rarely, and when it does so, it is rapid and involves branching speciation (discovery, innovation, surprise)

Punctuated Equilibrium

Punctuated Equilibrium in Social Systems

Causal Loop Diagram with Feedback

System Dynamics modeling yields non-intuitive insights into relationships between stocks, flows, and agent interactions.

Putting it all together: Frame the Problem

Foreca

st

Question EpistemologyInformation

Density/unit time

System Complexity

Describ

e

Explore

Interpre

t

Infer

Suggest

Analysis approachdepends on what question

is being asked, in what timeframe

Predict

A wicked problem is one for which each attempt to create a solution changes the understanding of the problem. Wicked problems cannot be solved in a traditional linear fashion, because the problem definition

evolves as new possible solutions are considered and/or implemented.

Social Complexity Creates “Wicked Problems”

Wicked Problems1. There is no definitive formulation of “the problem”… …you don’t understand it till you solve it. 2. There is no end to the problem.3. Solutions are not true-or-false, but good-or-bad.4. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a

solution to the problem. Every instantiation of the problem is essentially unique.

5. Every solution to the problem is a “one-shot operation”; because there is no opportunity to learn by trial-and-error, every attempt counts significantly.

6. There is not an enumerable set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible operations that may be incorporated into a plan.

7. The problem is actually a symptom of another problem.

8. The existence of discrepancies when representing the problem can be explained in numerous ways.

9. The choice of explanation determines the nature of the problem’s resolution.

10. The planner has no right to be wrong.

Terrorism is a Complex Problem The key is to better understand the future—plan to change it, and change it

Knowledge Network

Logistics/Infrastructure

Social/psychological

Simulation

MultidimensionalGames

Red, Blue, GreenWhite, Purple

MOADB

indications& warnings

increasehope

warn first respondersmanipulate - deceive -

control - dissuade - deter - destroy

enhancedcollection

scenario drivenhypothesis

smart decision making individuals and groups

Reality

mitigate

Terrorism: It’s About People• Poor economic conditions and low

human Capital Development in Arab world will continue

• Cultural Histories, ethnic tensions, hate, superstition, conspiracy…will continue to expound victimization narratives

• Role of US/Israel as crusaders against backdrop of changing balance of powers (EU, Asia,..)

• Fundamental religious movements will continue (?) to foster rebellion against modernism

Samuel Huntington The Clash of Civilizations

Complexity Science Yields New Analysis Paradigms

Intrinsic network features

transcend domains

Santa Fe InstituteWorkshop April 10-11, 2003

How Complex Adaptive Systems Dynamics are Related to Understanding and Modeling Terrorist Behavior

Sandia, Argonne, LANL,CIA, DTRA, MITRE, NavyCornell, U of Penn, Intel, CMU, Icosystems, USAF, Galisteo, Humana, Alidade,U of Maryland, MIIS, Brookings Institute

Network Architectures

Giant StarHigh School Friendships

High School Dating Web SitesYeast Proteins

TB Contagion

Small Worlds

Cliques

Books on Politics

Weak Links

Freshwater Food Web

Ring

Connected Ring

Trees

Network Metrics• Connectivity, centrality, betweeness• Degree• Clustering• Resilience• Tranmissivity• Directionality• Reciprocity• Path length• …

Scale Free Networks

Growth by Preferential Attachment“Rich get Richer”

Sample Questions• Who are key players & what makes them so?• Where are the trust networks?• How do ideas transmit, how long-lasting are

they, and can they be changed? • What are critical links in supply chains?• When does disruption cause innovation

versus defeat? • Where are the power centers? • How will people respond to new systems?

ObservationTable Top Exercises

Systems Thinking and National Security

Foreca

st

Question Epistemology

Information

Density/unit time

System Complexity

Describ

eExp

lore

Interpre

tInfer

Predict

Law Enforcement

Explain

Case StudiesField Surveys

Statistical AnalysisSocial Network

Analysis

Academic emphasisRemote Sensing

Evidentiary Reasoning

Red TeamingGaming

Network Analysis

Modeling & Simulation

Intelligence/security Analysts

SummaryComplex adaptive systems

– Are wicked, purposeful, and unpredictable– Are not the only kinds of systems desired– Develop structure to serve function

• Can be understood by observing structure• Can be shaped by their structure• Emergent behavior can be anticipated/measured using

structural metrics

– Co-evolve with other CAS– Create new CAS