Compass Maritime HBS

Raw_DataSale DateVessel NameSale Price ($US millions)Dead-Weight Tons '(000)Trailing 1-Year Average Monthly Baltic Dry Capesize IndexAge at Sale (Years)Year BuiltAge-SquareDead-Weight-Square1Jan-07Lowlands Beilun$73.0170.24,647819996428968.02Jan-07CHS Moon$45.0150.24,64716199125622560.03Jan-07Spring Brave$62.0151.14,64712199514422831.24Jan-07Martha Verity$60.0158.04,64712199514424964.05Jan-07TMT TBN$61.3174.74,64714199319630520.16Feb-07Pantelis SP$83.0169.94,878819996428866.07Feb-07Amazon$45.0149.54,87817199028922350.38Mar-07Cape Kassos$100.0170.05,24532004928900.09Mar-07Johnny K$65.0165.35,24513199416927324.110Mar-07Zorbas$70.0165.15,24511199612127258.011Mar-07Americana$33.0149.05,24520198740022201.012Mar-07Martha Verity$63.0158.05,24512199514424964.013Mar-07Ullswater$43.0123.55,24517199028915252.314Apr-07Formosabulk Brave$95.0170.15,752620013628934.015Apr-07Formosabulk Clement$95.0170.15,752620013628934.016Apr-07Nautical Dream$63.5151.45,75213199416922922.017Apr-07Formosabulk Allstart$67.0150.45,75212199514422620.218Apr-07Arimathian$62.0149.85,75213199416922440.019Apr-07Boss$31.0139.85,75222198548419544.020May-07Zorbas II$86.0174.56,20111199612130450.321May-07Fertilia$50.5172.66,20110199710029790.822May-07Ingenious$64.2170.06,20111199612128900.023Jun-07Anangel Dawn$67.0149.36,61813199416922290.524Jun-07Orient Fortune$28.0161.46,61823198452926050.025Jul-07Great Moon$30.0146.06,98023198452921316.026Jul-07Gran Trader$105.0172.56,980620013629756.327Aug-07Cape Brazil$22.0140.87,44126198167619824.628Sep-07Thalassini Kyra$133.0164.28,181520022526961.629Oct-07Tiger Lily$90.0149.28,88612199514422260.630Oct-07Dong-A-Helios$47.0146.98,88621198644121579.631Oct-07Marine Hunter$45.0164.58,88623198452927060.332Oct-07Peace Glory$57.0166.18,88623198452927589.233Nov-07Sumihou$106.0171.19,66311199612129275.234Nov-07Gran Trader$152.0172.69,663620013629790.835Nov-07Netadola$97.0149.59,66314199319622350.336Nov-07Nordstar$38.0150.79,66324198357622710.537Nov-07Captain Vangelis L$87.5148.29,66315199222521963.238Dec-07Voutakos$78.0188.310,29920198740035456.939Dec-07Sachuest$35.098.410,2992119864419682.640Jan-08Sinfonia$83.7184.410,52617199128934003.441Jan-08Jin Tai$155.0173.910,526420041630241.242Feb-08Dias$58.0135.010,84420198840018225.043Mar-08Desimi$83.0207.111,19319198936142890.444Mar-08Samos$25.0137.011,19326198267618769.045Mar-08Cape Sun$135.0171.711,193919998129480.946Apr-08Nightflight$158.0170.011,614420041628900.047May-08Cape Falcon$87.2161.512,47915199322526082.348May-08Castle Peak$82.0145.412,47918199032421141.2

Case_SolutionCompass Maritime - Ship ValuationGroup 7Q-1.How much is the Bet Performer worth based on comparable transactions? Which ship is the best reference transaction (the closest comparable)?Bet Performer's worth will be around $135 million in May 2008.Based on the criteria of Age, DWT, Capesize Index, and recency of transaction, the closest comparable ships are -Sale DateVessel NameSale Price ($US millions)Dead-Weight Tons '(000)Trailing 1-Year Average Monthly Baltic Dry Capesize IndexAge at Sale (Years)Nov-07Sumihou$106.0171.19,66311Mar-08Cape Sun$135.0171.711,1939Given the upward movement in the Capesize Index, Bet Performer's value would be somewhat less than that of CapeSun in May 2008Q-2.Using regression analysis, answer the following questions:a.)What is the expected relationship between ship price and each factor listed in Exhibit 4 (size, age, and charter rates)?What is the economic logic for why each factor might affect ship value (cash flows or risk)?The Correlation Analysis provides the extent of relationship between the variables -Sale Price ($US millions)Dead-Weight Tons '(000)Trailing 1-Year Average Monthly Baltic Dry Capesize IndexAge at Sale (Years)Sale Price ($US millions)1Dead-Weight Tons '(000)0.51480534551Trailing 1-Year Average Monthly Baltic Dry Capesize Index0.35233639320.04275140551Age at Sale (Years)-0.7874907545-0.4312639790.21736666981Age has got the highest correlation with Sale Price. However, the correlation is negative owing to the decreasing future cash flow in addition to increased risk with increasing age.DWT has the next highest value of correlation and it is positively correlated, as the future cash flow increases with increasing Tonnage.Capesize Index is positively correlated with the Sale Price. Increasing Capesize Index means better state of economy, higher demand, and shortage of ships. Hence, the Sale prices increase with the Index.b.)Which single factor is the best predictor of ship price?Given the highest correlation of Age with the Ship Price, Age contributes maximum to the movement in ship prices.c.)Can you think of other factor that might affect ship prices?d.)How well do all three factors jointly explain ship prices?The variables individually do not correctly predict the sale price since the R-square and Adjusted R-square values obtained from Regression analysis are very low.The regression analysis with all the three variables combined together, gives 92% R-square and 91.5% Adjusted R-square values which show a close fit of the predicted values with the given values.Thus, the linear combination of all three variables provides the best prediction for Sales Price.e.)Using all three factors, what is the predicted price for the Bet Performer?Predicted price in May 2008 =$125 Million(Refer to the Worksheet - All_Vars_VS_Price)f.)What would the price be if the Bet Performer were 5 years younger, if the ship were 20K DWT smaller or if charter rates (trailing capsize index) in May 2008 were 30% lower?In each case, assume all other factors remain the same.SituationPrice (Million)5 year younger14820K DWT smaller121(Refer to the Worksheet - All_Vars_VS_Price)Index 30% lower99Q-3.c) If you were Basil Karatzas, what would you recommend to your client regarding an offer price for the Bet Performer? What concerns, if any, would you have? What recommendations would you make?

Exhibit 4 Ship SalesExhibit 4: Sales of Capesize Ships from January 2007 to May 2008Sale PriceYearAge at SaleDead-Weight TonsTrailing 1-Year Average Monthly Baltic DrySale DateVessel Name($US millions)Built(Years)(000)Capesize Index1Jan-07Lowlands Beilun$73.019998170.24,6472Jan-07CHS Moon$45.0199116150.24,6473Jan-07Spring Brave$62.0199512151.14,6474Jan-07Martha Verity$60.0199512158.04,6475Jan-07TMT TBN$61.3199314174.74,6476Feb-07Pantelis SP$83.019998169.94,8787Feb-07Amazon$45.0199017149.54,8788Mar-07Cape Kassos$100.020043170.05,2459Mar-07Johnny K$65.0199413165.35,24510Mar-07Zorbas$70.0199611165.15,24511Mar-07Americana$33.0198720149.05,24512Mar-07Martha Verity$63.0199512158.05,24513Mar-07Ullswater$43.0199017123.55,24514Apr-07Formosabulk Brave$95.020016170.15,75215Apr-07Formosabulk Clement$95.020016170.15,75216Apr-07Nautical Dream$63.5199413151.45,75217Apr-07Formosabulk Allstart$67.0199512150.45,75218Apr-07Arimathian$62.0199413149.85,75219Apr-07Boss$31.0198522139.85,75220May-07Zorbas II$86.0199611174.56,20121May-07Fertilia$50.5199710172.66,20122May-07Ingenious$64.2199611170.06,20123Jun-07Anangel Dawn$67.0199413149.36,61824Jun-07Orient Fortune$28.0198423161.46,61825Jul-07Great Moon$30.0198423146.06,98026Jul-07Gran Trader$105.020016172.56,98027Aug-07Cape Brazil$22.0198126140.87,44128Sep-07Thalassini Kyra$133.020025164.28,18129Oct-07Tiger Lily$90.0199512149.28,88630Oct-07Dong-A-Helios$47.0198621146.98,88631Oct-07Marine Hunter$45.0198423164.58,88632Oct-07Peace Glory$57.0198423166.18,88633Nov-07Sumihou$106.0199611171.19,66334Nov-07Gran Trader$152.020016172.69,66335Nov-07Netadola$97.0199314149.59,66336Nov-07Nordstar$38.0198324150.79,66337Nov-07Captain Vangelis L$87.5199215148.29,66338Dec-07Voutakos$78.0198720188.310,29939Dec-07Sachuest$35.019862198.410,29940Jan-08Sinfonia$83.7199117184.410,52641Jan-08Jin Tai$155.020044173.910,52642Feb-08Dias$58.0198820135.010,84443Mar-08Desimi$83.0198919207.111,19344Mar-08Samos$25.0198226137.011,19345Mar-08Cape Sun$135.019999171.711,19346Apr-08Nightflight$158.020044170.011,61447May-08Cape Falcon$87.2199315161.512,47948May-08Castle Peak$82.0199018145.412,479Source: Adapted from Compass Weekly Market Report (various issues) and Thompson Reuters Datastream, accessed 7/25/10.

Correlation_AnalysisSale Price ($US millions)Dead-Weight Tons '(000)Trailing 1-Year Average Monthly Baltic Dry Capesize IndexAge at Sale (Years)Sale Price ($US millions)1Dead-Weight Tons '(000)0.51480534551Trailing 1-Year Average Monthly Baltic Dry Capesize Index0.35233639320.04275140551Age at Sale (Years)-0.7874907545-0.4312639790.21736666981

All_Vars_VS_PriceFor Bet Performer,Predicted Price in May 2008 -With original data5 years youngerAge =11Age =6DWT=172DWT=172Index (in May 2008)=12,479Index (in May 2008)=12,479Predicted Price (Million)=125.8324779905Predicted Price (Million)=148.551462084520K DWT smallerIndex 30% lowerAge =11Age =11DWT=152DWT=172Index (in May 2008)=12,479Index (in May 2008)=8,736Predicted Price (Million)=120.9890502904Predicted Price (Million)=98.8507015499Predicted Price in May 2006 -Age =9DWT172Index(2 yrs before) =4000(taking approximate Index value)Predicted Price (Million)=73.8090410267In 2006 Bet Performer was sold in $70 million, which is quite close to the predicted priceRegression Analysis OutputRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.9593910523R Square0.9204311912Adjusted R Square0.9150060451Standard Error9.8817622866Observations48ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression349701.552185857116567.1840619524169.66016792270Residual444296.565939142997.6492258896Total4753998.118125CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept44.22150997416.38366129882.6991225690.009825748311.202410695277.240609252911.202410695277.2406092529Dead-Weight Tons '(000)0.2421713850.0916181222.64326947140.01133327590.05752719520.42681557490.05752719520.4268155749Trailing 1-Year Average Monthly Baltic Dry Capesize Index0.00720705610.00059809112.050098715400.00600168280.00841242930.00600168280.0084124293Age at Sale (Years)-4.54379681880.2614759251-17.37749591080-5.0707669125-4.0168267251-5.0707669125-4.0168267251All P-values are less than 10%, implying that none of the variables is redundentRESIDUAL OUTPUTObservationPredicted Sale Price ($US millions)ResidualsDead-Weight Tons '(000)Trailing 1-Year Average Monthly Baltic Dry Capesize IndexAge at Sale (Years)Sale Price ($US millions)Predicted Sale Price ($US millions)APEMAPE182.5804952049-9.5804952049170.24,6478$73.082.580495204913.123966034111.8834239861241.38669295453.6133070455150.24,64716$45.041.38669295458.0295712123359.77983447612.2201655239151.14,64712$62.059.77983447613.5809121353461.4508170327-1.4508170327158.04,64712$60.061.45081703272.4180283878556.40748552474.8925144753174.74,64714$61.356.40748552477.9812634181684.175076089-1.175076089169.94,8788$83.084.1750760891.4157543241738.34060846586.6593915342149.54,87817$45.038.340608465814.79864785388109.5608645399-9.5608645399170.05,2453$100.0109.56086453999.5608645399962.98469084242.0153091576165.35,24513$65.062.98469084243.1004756271072.023850203-2.023850203165.15,24511$70.072.0238502032.89121457571127.23071953535.7692804647149.05,24520$33.027.230719535317.48266807491265.7606365507-2.7606365507158.05,24512$63.065.76063655074.38196277891334.6867396748.313260326123.55,24517$43.034.68673967419.33316354881499.6094704035-4.6094704035170.15,7526$95.099.60947040354.85207410891599.6094704035-4.6094704035170.15,7526$95.099.60947040354.85207410891663.27428777230.2257122277151.45,75213$63.563.27428777230.35545232711767.5759132061-0.5759132061150.45,75212$67.067.57591320610.85957194941862.8868135563-0.8868135563149.85,75213$62.062.88681355631.43034444561919.570928337111.4290716629139.85,75222$31.019.570928337136.86797310612081.1896062184.810393782174.56,20111$86.081.1896062185.59348114182185.2732774053-34.7732774053172.66,20110$50.585.273277405368.857975062280.0998349855-15.8998349855170.06,20111$64.280.099834985524.76609810832369.0010325232-2.0010325232149.36,61813$67.069.00103252322.98661570632426.49333809391.5066619061161.46,61823$28.026.49333809395.38093537912525.37465481894.6253451811146.06,98023$30.025.374654818915.417817270226109.0367424411-4.0367424411172.56,9806$105.0109.03674244113.84451661052713.80702658778.1929734123140.87,44126$22.013.807026587737.240788237928120.227992844612.7720071554164.28,1815$133.0120.22799284469.60301289882989.87102002930.1289799707149.28,88612$90.089.87102002930.14331107853048.4198544747-1.4198544747146.98,88621$47.048.41985447473.02096696743143.59447721321.4055227868164.58,88623$45.043.59447721323.12338397073243.981951429213.0180485708166.18,88623$57.043.981951429222.838681703133105.31645096670.6835490333171.19,66311$106.0105.31645096670.644857578634128.398692138223.6013078618172.69,6636$152.0128.398692138215.52717622493586.454158594210.5458414058149.59,66314$97.086.454158594210.87200144933641.3067960683-3.3067960683150.79,66324$38.041.30679606838.70209491653781.59553897495.9044610251148.29,66315$87.581.59553897496.74795545733873.17071447964.8292855204188.310,29920$78.073.17071447966.19139169283946.8557101487-11.855710148798.410,29921$35.046.855710148733.87345756784087.4918364938-3.7918364938184.410,52617$83.787.49183649384.530270601941144.018395595610.9816044044173.910,5264$155.0144.01839559567.08490606744264.1950293221-6.1950293221135.010,84420$58.064.195029322110.68108503824388.7116426214-5.7116426214207.111,19319$83.088.71164262146.88149713424439.9288508009-14.9288508009137.011,19326$25.039.928850800959.715403203545125.57674378019.4232562199171.711,1939$135.0125.57674378016.980189792546150.91460358867.0853964114170.011,6144$158.0150.91460358864.484428108547105.1144911728-17.9144911728161.512,47915$87.2105.114491172820.54414125324887.5841414178-5.5841414178145.412,47918$82.087.58414141786.8099285583

Age_Age-Sq_VS_PriceSUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.7752675506R Square0.601039775Adjusted R Square0.582041669Standard Error21.2374716026Observations45ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression228538.328041472414269.164020736231.63682613380.0000000042Residual4218943.2684029721451.0302000708Total4447481.5964444444CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept159.943960411616.47387104429.70894818730126.6983430774193.1895777458126.6983430774193.1895777458Age at Sale (Years)-8.97408488992.6237449035-3.4203343770.0014039582-14.2690164098-3.6791533701-14.2690164098-3.6791533701Age-Sq0.17312090020.0941947331.83790425060.0731567612-0.01697176470.3632135651-0.01697176470.3632135651RESIDUAL OUTPUTObservationPredicted Sale Price ($US millions)Residuals1134.5797938433-34.57979384332126.817555254528.18244474553126.817555254531.18244474554119.40155846613.5984415345112.3318034778-17.33180347786112.3318034778-17.33180347787112.3318034778-7.33180347788112.331803477839.6681965222999.2310189024-26.23101890241099.2310189024-16.23101890241193.199989315141.80001068491287.5152015282-37.01520152821382.1766555416-12.17665554161482.17665554163.82334445841582.1766555416-17.97665554161682.176655541623.82334445841777.1843513553-15.18435135531877.1843513553-17.18435135531977.1843513553-14.18435135532077.1843513553-10.18435135532177.184351355312.81564864472272.5382889694-7.53828896942372.5382889694-9.03828896942472.5382889694-10.53828896942572.5382889694-5.53828896942668.2384683837-6.93846838372768.238468383728.76153161632864.284889598423.21511040162964.284889598422.91511040163060.6775526134-15.67755261343157.4164574287-12.41645742873257.4164574287-14.41645742873357.416457428726.28354257133454.501604044327.49839595573551.932992460231.06700753983649.7106226765-16.71062267653749.710622676528.28937732353849.71062267658.28937732353947.834494693-0.8344946934047.834494693-12.8344946934146.3046085099-15.30460850994245.1209641271-17.12096412714345.1209641271-15.12096412714445.1209641271-0.12096412714545.120964127111.8790358729

Dead-Wt_vs_PriceSUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.5292327155R Square0.2800872672Adjusted R Square0.2633451106Standard Error27.8177287678Observations45ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression112945.692991175612945.692991175616.72946169520.0001855502Residual4333274.5194532688773.826033797Total4446220.2124444444CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept-80.507708837837.1637314112-2.16629777960.0358766857-155.4555151104-5.5599025652-155.4555151104-5.5599025652Dead-Weight Tons '(000)0.95044000250.23237196124.0901664630.00018555020.48181728711.41906271790.48181728711.4190627179RESIDUAL OUTPUTObservationPredicted Sale Price ($US millions)Residuals181.2571795834-8.2571795834262.2483795339-17.2483795339363.1037755362-1.1037755362469.6618115532-9.6618115532585.5341595946-24.2341595946680.97204758272.0279524173761.5830715322-16.5830715322881.067091582918.9329084171976.6000235713-11.60002357131076.4099355708-6.40993557081161.107851531-28.1078515311269.6618115532-6.66181155321336.87163146796.12836853211481.162135583213.83786441681581.162135583213.83786441681663.38890753690.11109246311762.43846753444.56153246561861.8682035330.1317964671952.3638035082-21.36380350822085.34407159410.65592840592183.5382355894-33.03823558942281.0670915829-16.86709158292361.39298353175.60701646832472.8933075617-44.89330756172558.2565315235-28.25653152352683.443191589121.55680841092753.3142435107-31.31424351072875.554539568657.44546043142961.297939531528.70206046853059.1119275258-12.11192752583175.8396715693-30.83967156933277.3603755733-20.36037557333382.112575585723.88742441433483.538235589468.46176441063561.583071532235.41692846783662.7235995352-24.72359953523760.34749952927.1525004713898.4601436282-20.46014362823913.015587405721.98441259434094.7534276186-11.05342761864184.773807592670.22619240744247.801691496310.198308503743116.3284156748-33.32841567484449.7025715013-24.70257150134582.682839587252.3171604128

Dead-Wt_Dead-Wt-SQ_vs_PriceSUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.5293082818R Square0.2801672572Adjusted R Square0.2458895075Standard Error28.1453803614Observations45ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression212949.39014554966474.69507277488.17344370430.0010043002Residual4233270.8222988948792.162435688Total4446220.2124444444CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept-91.4143750155164.0169910986-0.55734698220.5802488226-422.4140597737239.5853097427-422.4140597737239.5853097427Dead-Weight Tons '(000)1.09379739142.11155461610.51800573050.6071724032-3.16749229335.355087076-3.16749229335.355087076Dead-Weight-SQ-0.0004643630.0067972133-0.0683166670.945857769-0.01418169470.0132529688-0.01418169470.0132529688RESIDUAL OUTPUTObservationPredicted Sale Price ($US millions)Residuals181.2982561745-8.2982561745262.3979461995-17.3979461995363.2564425476-1.2564425476469.8132558691-9.8132558691585.4996299024-24.1996299024681.017495911.98250409761.729706731-16.729706731881.111091952118.8889080479976.7020384461-11.70203844611076.5139640722-6.51396407221161.2521142073-28.25211420731269.8132558691-6.81325586911336.58702285076.41297714931481.204678706913.79532129311581.204678706913.79532129311663.5424408264-0.04244082641762.58878817654.41121182351862.0161507982-0.01615079821952.4229720188-21.42297201882085.31330153340.68669846662183.5413292187-33.04132921872281.1110919521-16.91109195212361.53869758335.46130241672473.0278873989-45.02788739892558.3816832534-28.38168325342683.447974645421.55202535462753.3864691634-31.38646916342875.667169670757.33283032932961.443179078528.55682092153059.2436901855-12.24369018553175.9495180565-30.94951805653277.453964451-20.4539644513382.140035456123.85996454393483.541329218768.45867078133561.72970673135.2702932693662.8749814877-24.87498148773760.487483231727.01251676833898.0828073605-20.08280736053911.719066066123.28093393394094.4919630285-10.79196302854184.754093531870.24590646824247.7852578610.2147421443115.1943469624-32.19434696244449.7202391921-24.72023919214582.700803717152.2991962829

CapeSIZE-Index_VS_PriceSUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.2840125491R Square0.080663128Adjusted R Square0.0592832008Standard Error31.4354064674Observations45ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression13728.26691422273728.26691422273.77284389570.0586588003Residual4342491.9455302217988.1847797726Total4446220.2124444444CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept40.794097427116.01945254952.54653505170.01454261288.487792847773.10040200658.487792847773.1004020065Trailing 1-Year Average Monthly Baltic Dry Capesize Index0.00405344780.00208684491.94238098620.0586588003-0.00015507590.0082619715-0.00015507590.0082619715RESIDUAL OUTPUTObservationPredicted Sale Price ($US millions)Residuals159.630807138713.3691928613259.6308071387-14.6308071387359.63080713872.3691928613459.63080713870.3691928613559.63080713871.6691928613660.568504729722.4314952703760.5685047297-15.5685047297862.054768922837.9452310772962.05476892282.94523107721062.05476892287.94523107721162.0547689228-29.05476892281262.05476892280.94523107721362.0547689228-19.05476892281464.110880319230.88911968081564.110880319230.88911968081664.1108803192-0.61088031921764.11088031922.88911968081864.1108803192-2.11088031921964.1108803192-33.11088031922065.929527231920.07047276812165.9295272319-15.42952723192265.9295272319-1.72952723192367.6177882404-0.61778824042467.6177882404-39.61778824042569.0861497057-39.08614970572669.086149705735.91385029432770.9551269286-48.95512692862873.955353874959.04464612512976.813710148213.18628985183076.8137101482-29.81371014823176.8137101482-31.81371014823276.8137101482-19.81371014823379.962225726526.03777427353479.962225726572.03777427353579.962225726517.03777427353679.9622257265-41.96222572653779.96222572657.53777427353882.5398807396-4.53988073963982.5398807396-47.53988073964083.45900002820.24099997184183.459000028271.54099997184284.7513743016-26.75137430164386.164338647-3.1643386474486.164338647-61.1643386474586.16433864748.835661353

Age_vs_SalesSUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.7542897318R Square0.5689529996Adjusted R Square0.5589286507Standard Error21.8167845152Observations45ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression127014.796721401527014.796721401556.7571029540.0000000022Residual4320466.7997230429475.9720865824Total4447481.5964444444CoefficientsStandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept133.57179395358.313553725916.06675055670116.805915221150.337672686116.805915221150.337672686Age at Sale (Years)-4.25916375680.5653458758-7.53373101150.0000000022-5.3992923599-3.1190351538-5.3992923599-3.1190351538RESIDUAL OUTPUTObservationPredicted Sale Price ($US millions)ResidualsSale Price ($US millions)Age at Sale (Years)Predicted Sale Price ($US millions)APEMAPE1120.794302683-20.794302683$100.03120.79430268320.79430268326.18390649382116.535138926238.4648610738$155.04116.535138926224.81603940253116.535138926241.4648610738$158.04116.535138926226.24358295814112.275975169420.7240248306$133.05112.275975169415.58197355695108.0168114125-13.0168114125$95.06108.016811412513.701906756108.0168114125-13.0168114125$95.06108.016811412513.701906757108.0168114125-3.0168114125$105.06108.01681141252.87315372628108.016811412543.9831885875$152.06108.016811412528.9363082812999.4984838989-26.4984838989$73.0899.498483898936.29929301221099.4984838989-16.4984838989$83.0899.498483898919.87769144441195.239320142139.7606798579$135.0995.239320142129.45235545031290.9801563852-40.4801563852$50.51090.980156385280.15872551531386.7209926284-16.7209926284$70.01186.720992628423.88713232631486.7209926284-0.7209926284$86.01186.72099262840.83836352141586.7209926284-22.5209926284$64.21186.720992628435.07942777011686.720992628419.2790073716$106.01186.720992628418.18774280341782.4618288716-20.4618288716$62.01282.461828871633.00294979291882.4618288716-22.4618288716$60.01282.461828871637.43638145261982.4618288716-19.4618288716$63.01282.461828871630.89179185962082.4618288716-15.4618288716$67.01282.461828871623.07735652472182.46182887167.5381711284$90.01282.46182887168.37574569822278.2026651148-13.2026651148$65.01378.202665114820.31179248422378.2026651148-14.7026651148$63.51378.202665114823.15380333032478.2026651148-16.2026651148$62.01378.202665114826.13333083022578.2026651148-11.2026651148$67.01378.202665114816.72039569372673.9435013579-12.6435013579$61.31473.943501357920.62561396072773.943501357923.0564986421$97.01473.943501357923.76958622892869.684337601117.8156623989$87.51569.684337601120.36075702732969.684337601117.5156623989$87.21569.684337601120.08676880613065.4251738443-20.4251738443$45.01665.425173844345.38927520953161.1660100874-16.1660100874$45.01761.166010087435.9244668613261.1660100874-18.1660100874$43.01761.166010087442.24653508713361.166010087422.5339899126$83.71761.166010087426.92232964463456.906846330625.0931536694$82.01856.906846330630.60140691393552.647682573830.3523174262$83.01952.647682573836.569057143648.388518817-15.388518817$33.02048.38851881746.63187520293748.38851881729.611481183$78.02048.38851881737.96343741413848.3885188179.611481183$58.02048.38851881716.57151928113944.12935506012.8706449399$47.02144.12935506016.10775519124044.1293550601-9.1293550601$35.02144.129355060126.08387160044139.8701913033-8.8701913033$31.02239.870191303328.61352033334235.6110275465-7.6110275465$28.02335.611027546527.18224123744335.6110275465-5.6110275465$30.02335.611027546518.70342515494435.61102754659.3889724535$45.02335.611027546520.864383234535.611027546521.3889724535$57.02335.611027546537.5245130763$38.02431.351863789717.4950952904$22.02622.8335362763.7888012546$25.02622.8335362768.665854896

Curtailed_DataSale DateVessel NameSales ($US millions)Trailing 1-Year Average Monthly Baltic Dry Capesize IndexYear BuiltAug-07Cape Brazil$22.07,4411981Mar-08Samos$25.011,1931982Nov-07Nordstar$38.09,6631983Jun-07Orient Fortune$28.06,6181984Jul-07Great Moon$30.06,9801984Oct-07Marine Hunter$45.08,8861984Oct-07Peace Glory$57.08,8861984Apr-07Boss$31.05,7521985Oct-07Dong-A-Helios$47.08,8861986Dec-07Sachuest$35.010,2991986Mar-07Americana$33.05,2451987Dec-07Voutakos$78.010,2991987Feb-08Dias$58.010,8441988Mar-08Desimi$83.011,1931989Feb-07Amazon$45.04,8781990Mar-07Ullswater$43.05,2451990May-08Castle Peak$82.012,4791990Jan-07CHS Moon$45.04,6471991Jan-08Sinfonia$83.710,5261991Nov-07Captain Vangelis L$87.59,6631992Jan-07TMT TBN$61.34,6471993Nov-07Netadola$97.09,6631993May-08Cape Falcon$87.212,4791993Mar-07Johnny K$65.05,2451994Apr-07Nautical Dream$63.55,7521994Apr-07Arimathian$62.05,7521994Jun-07Anangel Dawn$67.06,6181994Jan-07Spring Brave$62.04,6471995Jan-07Martha Verity$60.04,6471995Mar-07Martha Verity$63.05,2451995Apr-07Formosabulk Allstart$67.05,7521995Oct-07Tiger Lily$90.08,8861995Mar-07Zorbas$70.05,2451996May-07Zorbas II$86.06,2011996May-07Ingenious$64.26,2011996Nov-07Sumihou$106.09,6631996May-07Fertilia$50.56,2011997Jan-07Lowlands Beilun$73.04,6471999Feb-07Pantelis SP$83.04,8781999Mar-08Cape Sun$135.011,1931999Apr-07Formosabulk Brave$95.05,7522001Apr-07Formosabulk Clement$95.05,7522001Jul-07Gran Trader$105.06,9802001Nov-07Gran Trader$152.09,6632001Sep-07Thalassini Kyra$133.08,1812002Mar-07Cape Kassos$100.05,2452004Jan-08Jin Tai$155.010,5262004Apr-08Nightflight$158.011,6142004