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Communicating the Risks Associated with Weather Hazards
Denna Geppi Ph.D.
Risk Communication Social Scientist
2016 APEC Typhoon Symposium
May 24, 2016
Overview 1. Introduction
1. Risk Communication and Socio-economic Factors
2. Strategies for Communicating Risk to Varied
Audiences
3. Best Practices for Communicating Typhoon Risk
4. Best Practices for Communicating Flood Risk
Introduction• Billions of dollars are invested annually
• For monitoring and predicting risk information from weather
hazards
• To protect communities and businesses
• That investment can only achieve its full potential if
• Risk is communicated effectively
• Empowering individuals and groups to pursue the response
options that are best for them
What is Risk Communication?
● Provides valuable insights into how people create and spread ideas about natural hazard threats
●And how communicators can shape those ideas
●National Research Council Definition (1989):
●“an interactive process of exchange of information and opinion among individuals, groups, and institutions”
What is Social Science?
5
“Social science is the process of
describing, explaining and
predicting human behavior and
institutional structures in
interaction with their
environments…”.
NOAA Science Advisory Board.
The Importance of Relationships
●Relationships built with
●Community Partners
●Emergency Management
● Broadcast Meteorologists
●Well ahead of a given event or any specific product being issued
Process, Not a Product
●Risk communication is a process
●Rather than a single product or service (Figure 1)
●Stages of the risk communication lifecycle:
1. Pre-crisis
2. Initial
3. Maintenance
4. Resolution
5. Evaluation
Strengthen Societal Decision Making
Spotlight: Risk Communication and Behavior
9
Socio-economic factors to consider
●Density of the population exposed
●Rate of population growth
●Characteristics of housing stock
●Socio-cultural factors such as
●Language
●Mobility
●Access to community resources
●Poverty
Strategies for Communicating Risk to Varied Audiences
●People view risk information through individual and unique lenses
●Which influence their understanding and choices
●A variety of factors:
●Socio-demographics
●Resources
●Disabilities (Figure 2)
Iterative Warning Response Process
Best Practices for Communicating Typhoon Risk
●(1) Address barriers the public faces for reacting to
Typhoon preparedness and risk information:
●It is important to address certain broader concerns in
addition to physical risk.
● The cost and time of supplies, mitigation, and evacuation
● The extent to which shelter accommodations meet the public’s
needs (e.g., are they pet-friendly)
Best Practices for Communicating Typhoon Risk
●(2) Convey Typhoon risk information in a clear and
compelling manner
● Include a narrative or story to accompany the facts
Best Practices for Communicating Typhoon Risk
●(3) Implement policy options to promote
Typhoon preparedness, including:
●Enforce emergency/action plans within families and
community groups
●Take time to understand businesses’ and individuals’
needs, constraints, and goals as they relate to Typhoon
preparedness
Best Practices for Communicating Flood Risk
● (1) Successful flood risk communication
should include information beyond simply
describing the hazard:
● Including what individuals can do to mitigate or
avoid the risk
● And how successful those alternatives are
Best Practices for Communicating Flood Risk
●(2) It is important to communicate the role
individuals can play
●In keeping themselves safe from flood threats
● Consider redefining risk areas so they match with well-known boundaries (e.g. rivers, roads, counties), and reduce the number of risk areas/zones when possible
●Potential adaptive measures, rather than just the mathematical risk
●Include images and examples to illustrate post-disaster conditions and past events
●Increase the chances that residents will be able to correctly identify their location
●Interpret the information on risk maps by using larger scales and labeling landmarks
(2) When Communicating Risk to Businesses, it is important to include information on:
Best Practices for Communicating Flood Risk
●(3) Those who are less experienced with
flood threat
●Tend to perceive less risk from flooding
● And to be less likely to respond
Best Practices for Communicating Flood Risk
●(4) Materials should be developed for
individuals living in communities with
structural flood mitigation
●So they are aware of their residual risk
Conclusion
●How do we communicate risk?
●No ‘one size fits all’ method for communicating risk
●Requires a mixture of: ●Effective best practices
●Firm understanding of your audience and their needs
References
● NOAA Report: Risk Communication and Behavior: Best Practices and Research Findings A product of the NOAA Social Science Committee.
● NRC (National Research Council). 1989. Improving Risk Communication. National Academy Press.
● Lindell, Michael K., and Ronald W. Perry. 2012. "The Protective Action Decision Model: Theoretical Modifications and Additional Evidence." Risk Analysis 32(4):616-32.
● Mileti, Dennis S., and John H. Sorensen. 1990. Communication of Emergency Public Warnings. Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Lab.
● Figure 1: A depiction of the risk communication lifecycle, with activities organizations should consider pursuing at each stage. Adapted from NWS AWOC training course Communicating in High-Impact Events.