commodities weekly tracker, 29th april 2013

7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 29th April 2013

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Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker


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Commodities Weekly TrackerContents

Returns

Non Agri Commodities Currencies

Agri Commodities

Non-Agri Commodities

Gold

Silver

Copper Crude Oil

Currencies DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities

Chana

Black Pepper Turmeric

Jeera

Soybean

Refine Soy Oil & CPO

Sugar

Kapas

Monday | April 29, 2013


3/20

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 29, 2013

1.1

0.5

(0.5)

(0.7) (0.7)

(0.9)(1.3) (1.3)(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5Currencies Weekly Performance


4/20


3.1

1.90.4

(1.3)

(3.6)(4.3)

(5.0)(6.2)

(10.4)(10.5)

(8.5)

(6.5)

(4.5)

(2.5)

(0.5)

1.5

3.5

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance


5/20

*Weekly Performance for April contract



6/20


GoldWeekly Price Performance

Spot gold prices increased around 4.2 percent in the last week. The yellow metal

touched a weekly high of $1484.81/oz and closed at $1462.50/oz in last trading

session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices gained by 4.8 percent as a result of depreciation in the

Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.27055/10 gms on Friday after touching a high of

Rs.27447/10 gms in the last week.

ETF Performance

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded

fund, declined by 3.56 percent to 1,083.05 tonnes as on 26th April 2013 from

previous level of 1,123.06 tonnes as on 19th April 2013.

Factors that influenced upside in gold prices Rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments

Weakness in the DX.

Further, expectation of rise in physical demand after the biggest drop also supported

an upside in the prices.

Additionally, rise in central bank purchases along with favorable economic data from

US acted as a positive factor for the prices.

Outlook

In the coming week, we expect gold prices to trade on a negative note as a result ofUS GDP growing at a slower pace than the expectations. Further, expectations of

unfavorable economic data from major global economies will add downside pressure

on the prices. However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned on account of

weakness in the DX coupled with expectations that central banks over the world will

continue with its stimulus measures..

Weekly Technical Levels

Spot Gold : Support 1,435/1,400 Resistance 1,480/1510. (CMP: $1469.70)

Sell MCX Gold June between 27500-27600, SL - 28000, Target 26750 / 26650 (CMP:

Rs.27,204)

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

25,500

26,500

27,500

28,500

29,500

30,500

31,500

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.582.0

82.5

83.0

83.5

84.0

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

Spo t Go ld -$ /o z US Dol lar In de x


7/20


SilverWeekly Price Performance

Spot silver gained 3.5 percent in the last week. The white metal prices

touched a weekly high of $24.82/oz and closed at $23.98/oz in the last

trading session of the week.

On the domestic front, prices rose by 4.4 percent as a result of

depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 44805/kg on Friday after

touching a weekly high of Rs.45820/kg.

ETF Performance

Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed

exchange-traded fund, decline by 0.56 percent to 10,392.42 tonnes as on

26th April 2013 from previous level of 10,451.01 tonnes as on 19th April

2013.Factors that influenced upside in silver prices

Rise in gold prices

Upside in the base metals.

Optimistic global market sentiments, favorable economic data from US

along with weakness in the DX .

Outlook In the coming week, we expect silver prices to trade lower taking cues

from fall in the gold prices coupled with downside in base metals complex.

However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned on account of

weakness in the DX coupled with expectations that central banks over the

world will continue with its stimulus measures.

In the domestic markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee will add

downside pressure on the prices on the MCX.


Spot Silver: Support 22.90/21.75 Resistance 25.0/26.10. (CMP:24.22)

Sell MCX Silver July between 47800-47900, SL - 49950, Target 44500 /

44000. (CMP:45216)

22

24

26

28

30

32

42,000

44,000

46,000

48,000

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

MCX- Near Month Si lver Futures - Rs/ kg Comex Si lver Futures - $/oz

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

83.5

84.0

22.0

24.0

26.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Silver -$/ oz US Dollar Index


8/20


CopperWeekly Price Performance

Copper prices increased by 1 percent in the previous week. The red metal

touched a weekly high of $7258/tonne and closed at $7038/tonne in last trading

session of the week.

On the domestic front, prices gained by 2 percent as a result of depreciation in

the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.382.20/kg on Friday after touching a high of

Rs.389.4/kg in the last week.

Copper Inventories

LME copper inventories gained around 0.85 percent in the last week and stood at

619,600 tonnes as on 26th April, 2013 as against 614,350 tonnes as on 19th April,

2013.

Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 2.9percent and stood at 217,180 tonnes for the week ending on 26th April, 2013.

Factors that influenced upside in the copper prices

Upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Additionally,

favorable economic data from US along with fall in Shanghai inventories also

supported an upside in the prices.

However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of rise in LME copper

inventories and unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone.

Outlook

Copper prices are expected to trade on a negative note on the back of rising

inventories, expectations of negative data from China, US and Euro Zone.

However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned on account of weakness

in the DX coupled with expectations that central banks over the world will

continue with its stimulus measures.

Appreciation in Indian Rupee will exert downside pressure in prices on MCX.


LME Copper: Support 6860/6680 Resistance 7270/7500. (CMP: $7010.75)

Sell MCX Copper June between 398-400, SL-412,Target 380 / 377. (CMP:379.75)

365

375

385

395

405

415

425

435

445

455

6,800

7,000

7,200

7,400

7,600

7,800

8,000

8,200

8,400

LME and MCX Copper Pr ice Performance

LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

6,800

7,000

7,200

7,400

7,600

7,800

8,000

8,200

8,400

318,000

368,000

418,000

468,000

518,000

568,000

618,000

LME Copper v/s LME Inventory

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)


9/20


Crude OilWeekly Price Performance On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices increased around 5.7 percent.

On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 6.9 percent on the back of

depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5,077/bbl on Friday aftertouching a high of Rs.5094/bbl in the last week.

US Energy Department Facts and Figures As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories

increased less than expectations by 0.9 million barrels to 388.60 million barrelsfor the week ending on 19th April 2013.

Gasoline stocks fell by 3.9 million barrels to 217.80 million barrels and whereasdistillate stockpiles rose by 0.1 million barrels to 115.30 million barrels for thelast week.

Factors that influenced upside in crude oil prices

Less than expected rise in US crude oil inventories, upbeat global marketsentiments along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, favorable economicdata from US and UK supported an upside in crude oil prices.

However, sharp upside in the crude prices was capped on account of decline inmanufacturing and services PMI data from Euro Zone and rise in Spanishunemployment rate.

Outlook We expect crude oil prices to trade on positive note on the back of crude oil

inventories growing at lower pace and decline gasoline inventories.

Further, weakness in the DX coupled with expectations that central banks overthe world will continue with its stimulus measures will support an upside in the

prices. However, sharp upside will be capped as a result of expectations of

unfavorable economic data from major economies.

Also, US GDP grew at slower pace than forecast will affect demand for fuel.

Appreciation in Indian Rupee will exert downside pressure in prices on MCX.

Weekly Technical Levels Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 96.90.75/94.50 Resistance 101.80/104.80

(CMP:92.61)

Buy MCX Crude Oil May between 4950-4980, SL-4830, Target5170/5200.(CMP:5037)

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

4,700

4,800

4,900

5,000

5,100

5,200

5,300

5,400

Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)

361.3

360.3

363.1

369.1

371.7

372.2

376.4

377.53

381.4

384

382.7

385.9

388.6 388.9

387.6

388.6

360

365

370

375

380

385

390

Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)


10/20


DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance

US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.3 percent in the last week.

The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.7 percent on weekly basis.

Factors that influenced downside movement in the DX

Rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for

the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable new home sales, jobless claims along

with rise in GDP and consumer sentiments data from US also exerted downside

pressure on the currency.

Further, US equities traded on a positive note which acted as a negative factor for the

DX.

Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

Dollar demand from crude oil and gold importers. However, upbeat global and

domestic market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in

the currency.

Further, forecast that economy will grow by 6.4 percent in the current fiscal year as per

the Economic Review report of the government, selling of dollars from exporters and

custodian banks along with expectations of increase in foreign inflows prevented sharp

fall in the Indian Rupee.

FII Inflows

For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.4,450.0 crores ($822.66 million) as

on 26th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.60,072.30 crores

($11,132.70 million) till 26th April 2013.

Outlook

We expect Indian Rupee to appreciate in the current week on back of expectations of

cut in key rates by the central bank in its stimulus measures to be declared on 3 rd May

2013. Additionally, weakness in the DX coupled with forecast for positive economic

data from the country will support an upside in the currency.


USD/INR MCX May Support 54.10/53.75 Resistance 55.0/55.45 (CMP: 54.28)

US Dollar Index: Support 82.0/81.50 Resistance 83.10/83.50 (CMP: 82.32)

79.0

79.5

80.0

80.5

81.0

81.5

82.0

82.5

83.0

83.5

US Dollar Index

53.0

53.5

54.0

54.5

55.0

55.5

56.0

$/INR - Spot


11/20


EuroWeekly Price Performance

The Euro depreciated by 0.2 percent in the last week. The Euro touched a

weekly low of 1.2954 and closed at 1.3026 against dollar on Friday.

Factors that influenced upside movement in the Euro

Decline in the regions manufacturing and services PMI data coupled with fall in

the German Ifo business climate.

Further, more than expected rise in the Spanish unemployment rate also

exerted downside pressure on the currency.

However, weakness in DX coupled with optimistic global market sentiments

cushioned sharp decline in the currency.

News

Spanish Unemployment Rate rose to 27.2 percent in Q4 of 2012 as against a rise

of 26 percent in Q3 of 2012.

German Ifo Business Climate declined by 2.3 points to 104.4-mark in April as

against a rise of 106.7-level in March. Italian Retail Sales fell by 0.2 percent in

February from earlier decline of 0.4 percent a month ago.

European Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 points to 46.5-mark in April

when compared to rise of 46.8-level a month ago. Flash Services PMI rose by 0.2

points to 46.6-level in current month from rise of 46.4-mark in prior month.

European Consumer Confidence was at -22-level in March from earlier fall of 24-

mark in February.

Outlook

We expect the Euro to trade on positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite

in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However,

sharp upside in the currency will be capped as a result of expectations of

unfavorable economic data from the region.


EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2910/1.2800 Resistance 1.3140/1.3220 (CMP:

1.3046)

1.275

1.285

1.295

1.305

1.315

1.325

1.335

1.345

1.355

1.365

Euro/$ - Spot

69.0

69.5

70.0

70.5

71.0

71.5

72.0

72.5

73.0

EURO/INR - Spot


12/20

Chana


Weekly Price Performance

Chana prices declined for the second consecutive week on account of increasing

arrivals & subdued demand at higher levels.

Chana spot as well as May futures settled 3.14% & 3.48% lower w-o-w.

Rising inflows at higher levels

Higher prices since the beginning of the month has led to a significant increase in

arrivals last week which dragged prices lower.

Chana output estimated at 8.5 mn tn

Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is

estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. However, according to market sources,

output may revised marginally lower due to unfavorable weather conditions.

Punjab may offer higher MSP on Pulses

To encourage diversification, the Punjab state government is considering setting

up of state costs and price commission for crops like soybean and pulses, and

offering state minimum support price (MSP) on them.

World pulses market well-balanced

At the International Pulse Trade and Industries Confederation annual

convention, field pea production for 2013-14 was estimated at 10.8 mn tn (9.9

mt). World dry bean production was estimated at 21.3 mt (21.2 mt), however,

world lentil production is projected to be slightly lower at 3.67 mt (3.73 mt). In case of chick pea (desi), production is seen up at 9.7 mt from 9.4 mt. in 2012-

13 following a huge spurt in Pakistan crop.

Outlook

Chana is expected to decline this week on account of increasing inflows of the

new crop. However, emergence of fresh demand at lower levels may support

prices at lower levels.

Weekly Strategy

Sell NCDEX CHANA May between 3530-3570, SL -3690, Target - 3345 / 3320.


13/20

Black Pepper

Source: Reuters & Angel Research



Pepper Futures remained sideways with a negative bias last week. Higher supplies

from Karnataka coupled with weak export demand pressurised prices while lowersupplies as well as good demand for Kerala crop supported prices at lower levels.

Low stocks in the exchange accredited warehouses also supported prices.

The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.76% and 0.44% lower w-o-w.

Indian Pepper is being offered at $6,800/tn (C&F NY). Vietnam and Brazil Austa is

quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn and $6,600/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn

Averages daily arrivals stood at 36 tn while offtakes stood at 36 tn last week.

Expectations of higher output in 2012-13

According to IPC, Pepper production is expected around 55,000 tn in 2013 and

carryover stocks of about 15,066 tn.

India Apr-Jan 2013 pepper exports stood at 11,500 tn, lower by 48%. (Source Factiva)

Global updates

Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in

2011. Vietnam pepper exports in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt. Pepper production

from Vietnam decreased to 1.05 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011. Harvesting of

the fresh crop from Vietnam will commence in the coming days.

Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against

32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%.Outlook

Pepper Futures is expected to trade sideways with a negative bias this week.

Higher arrivals of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak overseas demand may

pressurize prices at higher levels. However, good demand for the Kerala pepper

coupled with low supplies may support the prices. Lack of stocks for delivery due

to lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support

prices.

Weekly Strategy Sell NCDEX Pepper May between 35500-35600, SL -36450, Tgt - 34250 / 34050.

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.


14/20

Turmeric

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Turmeric Futures continued to decline last week as higher arrivals of the new crop

mounted pressure on the prices. Huge carryover stocks also added to the

downside pressure. However, good overseas as well as demand from interstate

buyers, specially the upcountry markets supported prices at lower levels. Lower

output expectations for 2012-13 crop on the back of poor sowing also supported

the prices. Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.

According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern

Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot as well as the futures

settled 2.67% and 3.62% lower w-o-w.

Weak exports data

Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2013 declined by 4% to 66,550 tn.(Source Factiva)

Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th

October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower

as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last

year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported

at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.

Outlook

Turmeric may is expected to trade with a negative bias in the coming week as

higher arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. Huge carryover stocks may

also pressurize prices. However, good demand from the overseas as well as the

domestic markets may support prices at lower levels. Lower production estimates

coupled with arrivals of good quality crop may also support prices at lower levels.

Weekly Strategy

Sell NCDEX Turmeric May between 6450-6550, SL -6800, Target - 6060 / 6000.




15/20

Jeera

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Jeera declined for the second week on account of higher arrivals. Demand was

also reported to be weak. However, higher exports data supported the prices at

lower levels. Sowing in Gujarat was reported at 3.244 lk ha till Jan 2013. Last 3

years average sowing is 3.189 lk ha. Stocks are reported at around 5-6 lk bags.

The spot as well as the futures settled 1.02% and 2.23% lower w-o-w. .

Second consecutive year of higher output

Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 38-40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), at par

with the production in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply

concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices

and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.

Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports Jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, higher by 86%. (Source Factiva)

Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions

between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They

have stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days.

International Scenario

According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while

production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and

around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,600/tn (c&f).

Outlook

Jeera may continue to trade lower this week as higher arrivals of the new crop is

expected to pressurise prices. However, any improvement in the domestic as well

as overseas demand may support prices at lower levels. Farmers may also be

unwilling to sell their stocks at lower levels and may hold back their stocks.

Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX Jeera May between 13100-13200, SL -13750, Target - 12280 / 12160.




16/20

Soybean


Weekly price performance

NCDEX Soybean traded on a bullish note in the initial part of the week on account on

poor supplies. However, imposition of special cash margin on the long side coupled

with IMDs forecast of a normal monsoon this year led to a correction from higherlevels towards the end of the week. The futures settled 4.4% higher w-o-w.

CBOT Soybean settled 0.18% higher w-o-w owing to tight supplies old US soy crop.

IMD Forecast normal Southwest monsoon for 2013 season

Indian Meteorological department (IMD), released its First long Range Forecast,

wherein it predicted southwest monsoon rains at 98% of long period average.

Imposition of Special margin long on Soybean and Soy meal

Special Margin (in Cash) of 10% on the Long side will be imposed in Soybean and Soy

meal May 2013, June 2013 & July 2013 contracts wef Tuesday, April 30, 2013.India's soy meal Exports Fall by 12 Percent during FY12-13 SOPA

The annual soy meal exports in the FY 2012-2013 (April-March) were 34,33,916.546

tons, decreased by 12.28 percent from 39,14,683.205 tons a year ago.

India soy meal exporters renegotiate deals with Iran

Indian soy meal suppliers are renegotiating deals with Iranian buyers for April and

May shipments as demand for Indian soy meal has slowed significantly due to the

higher prices, and buyers are seeking alternative South American supplies.

Brazil congestion delays export of record soybean crop Most of Brazil's soybean harvest goes to China, where it is fed to chickens and used

to make tofu, etc. However, recent rains have caused delay ion shipments.

Outlook

An increase in the margin, normal monsoon forecast, and weak soy meal exports

from India may exert downside pressure on the domestic soybean prices. However,

poor supplies may support prices at lower levels.

Strategy

Sell NCDEX Soybean May between 4050-4100, SL -4250, Target - 3820 / 3785


17/20

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil


Weekly price performance

Edible oil complex traded on a positive note last week tracking positive palm

oil futures at KLCE. Strong exports data also supported prices. Seasonallylower yield period of Malaysian palm oil and firm soy oil also lent support to

the prices. CPO prices at MCX and KLCE settled 1.02% and 0.79% higher. Soy

oil also settled 2.1% and 1.02% higher on NCDEX and CBOT respectively.

However, comfortable supplies capped sharp upside.

Global Scenario

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for April 1-25 rose 5.25 percent to

1,123,129 tonnes from 1,067,140 tonnes shipped during March 1-25

Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export

tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April. The Southeast Asiancountry calculated a reference price of 2,347.26 ringgit per tonne for crude

palm oil for May.

Domestic Scenario

Indias imports of palm oil fell for a second straight month in March, as

domestic supply improved and purchases by the worlds biggest buyer

continued to suffer from an import levy imposed in January.

Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to

896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports.

Stockpiles of edible oil at ports fell nearly nine percent during March to

850,000 tn, the trade body said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1.

Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October

2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as

the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty.

Strategy

Buy NCDEX Ref Soya Oil May between 708-712, SL -695, Target - 732 / 735.

Buy MCX CPO May between 454-458, SL -444, Target - 474 / 476.


18/20

Sugar



Sugar prices hit a fresh contract low of Rs. 2910 last week and settled 0.61%

lower as higher supplies is seen offsetting the summer demand. ICE sugar is currently trading at its lowest levels since June 2010 and settled

3.39% lower on hopes of third back to back year of global sugar surplus situation.

Indias 2012-13 Sugar production declines 2 per cent

The mills crushed about 240 mln tonnes of sugarcane into 24.11 mn tn of sugar,

white value, by April 15, which is 1.9% less than the 24.571 mln produced by this

time last year. The sugar recovery rate is down at 10.11% this season from

10.29% a year ago.

EU could become sugar exporter if quotas abolished

The European Union could eventually become a net exporter of sugar if plans to

abolish production quotas in coming years are implemented.

EU, net sugar importer, is now in talks on proposed reforms to its protected sugar

regime, which restricts output to prop up prices.

Brazil's cane zones dry out, sugar harvest seen quickening

Center-south cane belt will stay dry for the next few weeks, according to

forecaster Somar, speeding up the harvest of cane and output of sugar that was

hampered by an unusually wet start to April.

Brazil's sugar production will jump to a record level in the 2013/14 season justnow starting, with a surge in cane output from an expanded planted area,

favorable weather and efforts to renew old and less productive cane plants.

Outlook

Sugar is expected to consolidate at lower levels this week. Higher supplies in the

domestic markets will continue to mount pressure on the prices as millers will

release stocks to clear cane arrears. This will offset summer season demand.

Strategy

NCDEX Sugar May :Support-2850/2800, Resistance- 3020/3060


19/20

Kapas/Cotton



After declining sharply over the last three weeks due to an upward revision in

production and imports estimates, Cotton futures recovered 2.28% on account of

short coverings. Reports that CCI has started to release stocks in the local marketscapped sharp upside.

ICE Cotton declined 1.47% w-o-w on reports of selloff by investors coupled with

liquidation of long positions by speculators.

CCI Commences Release of Cotton Stocks in Domestic Market

CCI which procured nearly 21 lakh bales of cotton at MSP level, has started to

release some quantity into late last week. The CCI had also sought approval from the

Ministry of Textiles for export of 10 lakh bales.

Cotton Advisory Board sees lower kharif sowing CAB in its latest meet has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season

compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to

go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales.

Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales. While Import are estimated 2.5 mn bales.

China to sell high-quality state cotton reserves

China will start to sell its high-quality reserves of fibre, which should spur purchases

by textile mills after Beijing's stockpiling tightened domestic supplies.

Starting on Friday, 19

th

April, govt will offer cotton imported in 2011 and purchasedfrom the 2012 harvest, and will allow textile mills to buy up to 8 months' worth of

consumption. Beijing has said it would offer a total of 4.5 million tonnes for the

auctions to last until end of July.

This may dampen demand for foreign fibre from mills in the no. 1 textile market.

Outlook

Cotton may trade under downside pressure as near term supply side fundamentals

remain strong wiht CCI has started releasing stocks from their state reserves.

Strategy

Sell MCX Cotton May between 18650-18700, SL -19100, Target - 18050 / 17950.


20/20

Thank You!

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

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commodities weekly tracker, 29th april 2013

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