commercial aviation safety team (cast) update kyle l. olsen north asia regional aviation safety team...
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Commercial AviationCommercial AviationSafety Team Safety Team
(CAST)(CAST)
Update Update
Kyle L. OlsenKyle L. Olsen
North Asia Regional Aviation Safety TeamNorth Asia Regional Aviation Safety TeamBeijing - May 2006 Beijing - May 2006
We Need to Continuously ImproveWe Need to Continuously ImproveAviation SafetyAviation Safety
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Hull loss accidentsper year
Hull loss accident rate*
Airplanes in service32,495
2021
Departures, Millions
18,621
2001
Boeing 12,351
Business as usual
Reductions possible with continued Industry effort
*Accident, Airplanes in Service and Departure data are estimated through 31 December 2004
Worldwide Airline Hull Loss AccidentsWorldwide Airline Hull Loss AccidentsClassified by Accident Type 1995 – 2004
Total Hull Losses = 177
Number ofHull Losses
73
27
12
FuelExhaustio
n
Controlledflight into
terrain
Loss ofcontrolin flight
Landing Refusedtakeoff
100
80
60
40
20
0
20
5
On-GroundMisc.
9
Landing, Loss of Control,and CFIT Hull Losses
120 or 67%
Worldwide Airline FatalitiesWorldwide Airline Fatalities
Number of fatal accidents (78 total)
2122 2 22 1
Number of Fatalities
1,999
1,599
420231
339225
Controlledflight into
terrain
Loss ofcontrolin flight
Mid-Air
collision
StructureIn-Flightfire
Fuel tankexplosion
Total fatalities – 5,828
CFIT and Loss of Control Fatalities 3,598 or 62 %
Classified by Accident Type 1995 – 2004
15
136
Landing
CAST Organizational CAST Organizational
StructureStructure
CAST GoalsCAST Goals
Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007accident rate by 80% by 2007
Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident ratecommercial aviation fatal accident rate
* Representing P&W and RR** Observer
AIAAirbusALPAAPAATAIFALPANACABoeingGE*RAAFSF
CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agendadevelop & implement a prioritized safety agenda
Industry
Commercial Aviation Safety Team
(CAST)
Government
DODFAA
• Aircraft Certification• Flight Standards• System Safety• Air Traffic Operations• Research
NASAICAO**JAATCCNATCA** NTSB**EASA
IATA**AAPA** ATAC**APFA**
• Safety enhancement development
• Master safety plan • Enhancement
effectiveness• Future areas of
study
• Data analyses
CAST
Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)
Joint Safety Implementation
Teams (JSIT)
Joint Implementation Measurement Data
Analysis Team (JIMDAT)
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
HUMAN FACTORSIN OPERATIONS &
MAINTENANCE
Carry-on Baggage
Child Restraint
Passenger Interference
CABIN SAFETY
IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS
GENERAL AVIATION
Loss of Control
Weather
Survivability
Aeronautical Decisionmaking
Controlled Flight
Into Terrain Approach and Landing
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Controlled Flight Into Terrain
Loss of Control
Weather
Uncontained Engine Failures
Runway IncursionPassenger Seat Belt Use
Runway Incursions
Safer SkiesSafer Skies
Turbulence
Resource Cost Vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction
APPROVED PLAN
Completed + Plan (2007
Implementation Level)
Completed + Plan (2020
Implementation Level)
All JSIT Proposed Enhancements
(2020 Implementation
Level)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Re
so
urc
e C
os
t ($
Mil
lio
ns
)
Risk Reduction
Total Cost in $ (Millions)
2007 2020
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Ris
k E
lim
ina
ted
by
Sa
fety
En
ha
nc
em
en
ts
Completed
CAST Safety PlanCAST Safety Plan31 Completed Safety Enhancements31 Completed Safety Enhancements• Safety Culture Safety Culture
• Maintenance Procedures Maintenance Procedures
• Flight Crew TrainingFlight Crew Training
• Air Traffic Controller TrainingAir Traffic Controller Training
• Uncontained Engine FailuresUncontained Engine Failures
• Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)
• Standard Operating ProceduresStandard Operating Procedures
• Precision ApproachesPrecision Approaches
• Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) SystemsMinimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems
• Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)
CAST Safety Plan (cont.)CAST Safety Plan (cont.)
16 Committed Safety Enhancements16 Committed Safety Enhancements• Policies and ProceduresPolicies and Procedures
• Aircraft Design Aircraft Design
• Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)
• Runway Incursion PreventionRunway Incursion Prevention
• Precision Approaches (additional projects)Precision Approaches (additional projects)
8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies
CASTCAST
Implementation Status Implementation Status
CAST Safety Plan - April 19, 2006
Complete66%
On Tgt13%
Late19%
In Question2%
316
9
1
47 Safety Enhancements
31 Complete
16 Underway
CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47SE; 31 Complete; 16 Underway
1
15.1
2
15.0
3
.5
4
1.1
5
.4
6
7.9
7
7.9
8
7.9
9
.8
10
16.4
11
3.4
12
5.3
13
.8
14
5.7
15
9.2
16
.7
17
0
18
1.5
19
0.1
20
3.6
21
1.5
23
7.4
24
10.6
25
6.0
26
2.3
27
8.8
28
5.0
29
1.9
30
2.8
31
12.2
32
0
34
0
39
0
40
0
46
1.6
47
1.2
49
1.5
50
2.6
53
2.7
52
0
51
0
55
1.7
59
0
60
1.5
78
0
84
.8
85
1.2
Status
Chart
COMPLETE ON TRACK IN QUESTION LATE
JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level
Complete except for measurement
Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003
Accidents permillion departures
United Statesand Canada
0.4
Latin Americaand Caribbean
2.4
Europe0.7
China0.5
Middle East2.7
Africa12.3
Asia1.7
Oceania0.0
(ExcludingChina)
JAA - 0.6Non JAA – 1.2
C.I.S.1
1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.*2004 Worldwide Accident Rate ONLY, Regional rates when data available
World0.74*
Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003
Accidents permillion departures
United Statesand Canada
0.4
Latin Americaand Caribbean
2.4
Europe0.7
China0.5
Middle East2.7
Africa12.3
Asia1.7
Oceania0.0
(ExcludingChina)
JAA - 0.6Non JAA – 1.2
C.I.S.1
CAST47 SEs30 complete17 in work73% reduction
PAASTCFIT and ALAR
JSSI35 SEs JAA11 SEs EASA62% reduction
ASETJust forming up
COSCAP CISJust starting
COSCAP NA, SA, SEA27 SEs in work60% reduction
1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.*2004 Worldwide Accident Rate ONLY, Regional rates when data available
World0.74*
CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47SE; 31 Complete; 16 Underway
1
15.1
2
15.0
3
.5
4
1.1
5
.4
6
7.9
7
7.9
8
7.9
9
.8
10
16.4
11
3.4
12
5.3
13
.8
14
5.7
15
9.2
16
.7
17
0
18
1.5
19
0.1
20
3.6
21
1.5
23
7.4
24
10.6
25
6.0
26
2.3
27
8.8
28
5.0
29
1.9
30
2.8
31
12.2
32
0
34
0
39
0
40
0
46
1.6
47
1.2
49
1.5
50
2.6
53
2.7
52
0
51
0
55
1.7
59
0
60
1.5
78
0
84
.8
85
1.2
Status
Chart
COMPLETE ON TRACK IN QUESTION LATE
JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level
Complete except for measurement
Precision-Like Approach Precision-Like Approach ImplementationImplementation
“21“21stst Century Instrument Approaches” Century Instrument Approaches”
CAST Safety EnhancementsCAST Safety Enhancements
SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 and -8SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 and -8
Worldwide FleetWorldwide Fleet• Classic airplanesClassic airplanes – typically equipped with – typically equipped with
electro-mechanical flight instruments, basic electro-mechanical flight instruments, basic navigation (VOR, DME, ADF and possibly navigation (VOR, DME, ADF and possibly GPS Navigation (FMS))GPS Navigation (FMS))
• Standard airplanesStandard airplanes – multi-sensor RNAV – multi-sensor RNAV Flight Management Systems (FMS), Flight Management Systems (FMS), Electronic Flight Instruments and Electronic Electronic Flight Instruments and Electronic Map Displays (Triple INS rather than GPS)Map Displays (Triple INS rather than GPS)
• Advanced airplanesAdvanced airplanes – standard airplanes – standard airplanes with advanced navigation (GPS sensors and with advanced navigation (GPS sensors and RNP capabilities)RNP capabilities)
Precision-Like ApproachPrecision-Like ApproachSE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8
• On NARAST Safety PlanOn NARAST Safety Plan
• SE-3, Vertical AnglesSE-3, Vertical Angles– Advisory Circular 008, “Guidance for Advisory Circular 008, “Guidance for
Operators for Conducting Constant Operators for Conducting Constant decent Final approach (CDFA) for Non-decent Final approach (CDFA) for Non-precision approaches. (November precision approaches. (November 2004)2004)
Precision-Like ApproachPrecision-Like ApproachSE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8
• Not on NARAST Plan:Not on NARAST Plan:– SE-4, Install Visual Glide Slope SE-4, Install Visual Glide Slope
Indicators (VGSI) at runway endsIndicators (VGSI) at runway ends– SE-5, Ensure installation of DME at SE-5, Ensure installation of DME at
airports where older air carrier aircraft airports where older air carrier aircraft operateoperate
– SE-6, Include 3D RNAV minima and SE-6, Include 3D RNAV minima and charting specifications for approach charting specifications for approach charts.charts.
Precision-Like ApproachPrecision-Like ApproachSE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 continuedcontinued
• Not on NARAST Plan:Not on NARAST Plan:– SE-7, RNP criteria and guidance SE-7, RNP criteria and guidance
allowing reduced landing minimaallowing reduced landing minima– SE-8, Define the parameters for future SE-8, Define the parameters for future
installation of the xLS (laterally and installation of the xLS (laterally and vertically guided approach path) to vertically guided approach path) to runway ends not serviced by runway ends not serviced by Instrument Landing System (ILS)Instrument Landing System (ILS)
Implementation is Implementation is EssentialEssential
Hull Loss Accidents Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs)
1 January to 31 December 2004
Date Operator Aircraft LocationFata
l Phase
3 Jan FLASH AIRLINES 737-300SHARM EL-SHEIK, EGYPT 148 CLIMB
5 Jan AUSTRIAN A/L F-70 MUNCHEN, GERMANY 0 APPROACH
1 Mar PAKISTAN A/L A300 JEDDAH, SAUDI ARABIA 0 TAKEOFF
4 Mar AZOV AVIA CO. IL-76 BAKU, AZERBAIJAN 3 TAKEOFF
2 Apr AIR MEMPHIS 707-320 CAIRO, EGYPT 0 TAKEOFF
28 Apr CENTURION CARGO DC-10F BOGOTA, COLOMBIA 0 LANDING
18 May SILK WAY AIRLINE IL-76 UMURQI, CHINA 7 TAKEOFF
21 Jul AERO CALIFORNIA DC-9-14 MEXICO CITY, MEXICO 0 TAKEOFF
11 Aug AIR GUINEE EXPRE 737-200 SIERRA LEONE 0 TAKEOFF
28 Aug TRANSAIR CARGO Caravelle GISENYI, RWANDA 0 LANDING
8 Oct BIMAN BANGLEDESH F-28 SYLHET, BANGLEDESH 0 LANDING
14 Oct MK AIRLINES 747-200F HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA 7 TAKEOFF
7 Nov AIR ATLANTA 747-200F DUBAI, UAE 0 TAKEOFF
28 Nov KLM 737-400 BARCELONA, SPAIN 0 LANDING
30 Nov LION AIR MD-80SOLO CITY, INDONESIA 26 LANDING
Hull Loss Accidents Worldwide Commercial Jets (> 60,000 lbs) 1 January to 31 December 2005
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
8 January Aerorepublica MD-80 Cali, Colombia Landing 0
24 January Atlas Air B-747-200 Dusseldorf, Germany Landing 0
3 February Air West Cargo IL-76 Khartoum Approach 7
3 February Kam Air B-737-200 Kabul, Afghanistan Approach 104
19 March Race Cargo Airline B-707-300 Entebbe, Uganda Approach 0
23 March Airline Transport IL-76 Mwanza, Tanzania Takeoff 8
7 April ICARO Air F-28 Coca, Equador Landing 0
20 April Saha Air B-707-300 Tehran, Iran Landing 3
19 June Mahfooz Aviation B-707 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Landing 0
1 July Biman Bangladesh DC-10 Chittagong, Bangladesh Landing 0
2 August Air France A-340 Toronto, Canada Landing 0
14 August HELIOS Airways B-737-300 Grammatikos, Greece Enroute 121
16 August West Caribbean MD-82 Machiques, Venezuela Enroute 160
23 August TANS Peru Airlines B-737-200 Pucallpa, Peru Approach 45
5 Sept Mandala Airlines B-737-200 Medan-Polonia,Indonesia Takeoff 104
22 October Bellview Airlines B-737-200 Lissa, Nigeria Climb 117
31 October MIBA Aviation B-727 Kindu, DR Congo Landing 0
11 November Royal Airlines Cargo IL-76Khak-eShahidan, Afghanistan
Approach 8
10 December Sosoliso Airlines DC-9 Port Harcort, Nigeria Landing 109
Safety EnhancementSafety Enhancement IndicatorIndicator
1. Terrain Avoidance Warning 1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS)System (TAWS)
• Reduction in MSAW alertsReduction in MSAW alerts
• Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)
4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-11,18)11,18)
• Percentage of operators who have adopted constant Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approachesangle approaches
• Continuous reduction in selected metricsContinuous reduction in selected metrics
21. ALAR Flight Deck 21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1-3)Type Designs (1-3)
• Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision heightdecision height
23. ALAR Flight Crew Training 23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project– one project
• Continuous reduction in the number of busted Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gatesapproach gates
• Continuous reduction in altitude bustsContinuous reduction in altitude busts
27. LOC Policies and 27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management Assessments and Management – one project– one project
• Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in placeassessment/management processes in place
• Continuous reduction in the number of operations Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systemssystems
• Percentage of operators with a process to include Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manualssafety information in manuals
Safety Metrics ExamplesSafety Metrics Examples
Moving ForwardMoving Forward
All Regions Combined Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents
Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide(2007 Implementation Values)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%To
tal
CFI
T
LOC
-I
SC
F-P
P
SC
F-N
P
ICE
Mid
air
FIR
E-N
I
FUE
L RI
AR
C
RE
US
OS
WS
TRW
AD
RM
OTH
ER
-BIR
D
Po
rtio
n o
f R
isk
Risk Eliminated
Risk Remaining
Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy
Safety Plan DevelopmentSafety Plan Development
AccidentJSATS
Case studies
AccidentJSITS
Case studies
SafetyEnhancements
IncidentAnalysisProcess
JIMDATReview
EmergingRisk
ChangingRisk
DevelopEnhancements
& Metrics
AviationSystem
Changes
PresentIn MasterFactors
Yes
No
DemographicChanges
IdentifyHazards
IdentifyFactors
DevelopContributing
Factors(new or
emerging
IdentifyHazards
IdentifyFactors
MasterContributing
Factors
11-5-03 CAST-051R
FAST Hazards
CASTPlan
RecommendedPlan
Revision
PerformanceTo PlanReview
Non-PerformanceInformation
Metrics
Our Goal:Our Goal:Our Goal:Our Goal:Make Aviation Safer
by Reducing the Risk of an Accident
Thank you