Comet Elenin Will Not Destroy Earth This YearDAVID MORRISON

Skeptical Inquirer | September / October 2 0 1 1 5

In the middle of the gathering Internetfear about the doomsday of December12, 2012, there have been two new apoc-alyptic distractions. First there was awidely reported prediction by fundamen-talist preacher Harold Camp ing (thefounder of “family radio” in Cali fornia)that the end of the world would begin onMay 21, 2011. Camp ing claim ed that onthis date the good people would be trans-ported to heaven in what is called “theRapture.” It now seems clear that this didnot happen or that the number of goodpeople is vanishingly small.

In addition, there is growing fear ofnewly discovered Comet Elenin, which isvariously predicted to collide with Earthin October 2011 or to in duce massiveearthquakes and pole shifts from its grav-itational or magnetic perturbation of ourplanet. Some even claim that Elenin isnot a comet at all but a massive browndwarf star.

What are the facts? C2010 X1 Elenin(to give its full name) is a long-periodcomet that takes about 10,000 years to complete one orbit around the Sun.Russian amateur astron omer LeonidElenin discovered it with a robotic tele-scope in New Mexico on December 10,2010. It reaches peri helion (when it willbe closest to the Sun) on September 10,2011, and will be closest to Earth on Oc-tober 16 at a distance of thirty-five mil-lion kilometers, approximately one hun-dred times farther than the distancebetween Earth and the Moon. The cometis a tiny object, roughly five kilometers indiameter, and (like all comets) it is visibleonly because it outgases an extensive, ten-uous atmosphere as it is warmed by theSun. Its mass is less than one-billionththe mass of Earth. Although several am-ateur astronomers are regularly photo -graphing the comet, it has remained faintthrough June 2011, and it may never be-come visible to the naked eye.

One of the frequent claims on con-spiracy theory websites is that this cometshifted Earth’s axis by three degrees inFebruary 2010, precipitating the Chileearthquake. Some believe that it alsocaused a larger pole shift that triggeredthe Japan earthquakes of March 2011.Ignoring plate tectonics as the cause ofearthquakes, they suggest that the comet

exerted strong gravitational or electro-magnetic effects on our planet. Whenscientists pointed out that this littlecomet can have no measurable gravita-tional or tidal effect, and that comets donot have magnetic fields, the storyshifted. For people who are convinced thecomet did cause the earthquakes, thisproves that Elenin is not a comet at allbut a much more massive (and danger-ous) interloper.

The fact is that Elenin fits the defini-tion of a comet: It is a solar system objectwith an elongated (eccentric) orbit that isoutgassing a tenuous atmosphere (coma)and tail as it ap proaches the Sun. Cometsare de fined operationally by the presenceof the visible coma and tail. It is clear thatElenin cannot possibly be a massive ob-ject like a brown dwarf. If it were, it wouldnot have a coma or tail because the gascannot escape from an object with sub-stantial gravity. In addition, if it weremassive we would be seeing its gravita-tional influence on the orbits of the plan-ets, especially Mars and Earth, but thereis no change in these orbits. Finally, if itwere a brown dwarf it would have beeneasily detected in the various previous as-tronomical surveys, including the recentWISE infrared mission, even when it wasstill in the outer solar system.

Ironically, the inconspicuous nature ofthis comet plays into some of the conspir-acy theories. There are many claims thatNASA and the news media are suppress-ing information about Elenin. WhenNASA sent a video on disaster prepared-ness to its employees in June, I began tohear claims that this was to prepare us for

Elenin. Some websites have substitutedphotos of the much brighter comet Wild2 and called it Elenin. In an unusual step,NASA/JPL released a comment by DonYeomans, NASA’s top comet scientist,who de scribed Elenin as “kind of wimpy.”He noted that we will “probably need agood pair of binoculars, clear skies, and adark, secluded location to see it even onits brightest night.”

Other websites suggest that the cometis accompanied by a giant UFO that con-trols its orbit. They assert that aliens aresteering the comet into collision withEarth. These claims sound like the ru-mors that surrounded Comet Hale-Boppin 1997. It, too, was said to be accompa-nied by a UFO, and many people boughttelescopes so that they could watch it. Aswe all remember, the Heaven’s Gate cultinterpreted the arrival of Hale-Bopp as asignal for their mass suicide, thinkingthey would be transported to the accom-panying spaceship. While there is noth-ing to fear from Comet Elenin, perhapswe should be afraid of how some peopleare reacting to it.Related ArticlesDavid Morrison’s “The Myth of Nibiru and theEnd of the World in 2012” (SI, September/October 2008), “Update on the Nibiru 2012‘Doomsday’” (SI, November/December 2009),and “The 2012 Doomsday Hoax: Update II” (SI,July/August 2011). See also Robert Sheaffer’s“2012: Peter Gersten’s ‘Leap of Faith’” (SI,July/August 2011) and the third part of his col-umn in this issue, p. 33.

David Morrison is a planetary scientist, a NASAsenior scientist, and a Committee for SkepticalInquiry fellow.

[ NEWS AND COMMENT

Comet Elenin on May 5, 2011, when it was 170 million miles from Earth. It is nothing unusual and no dramaticevents are expected.

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6 Volume 35 Issue 5 | Skeptical Inquirer

We have all heard the expression “twosteps forward, one step back.” This is alltoo often the story with skeptical ac-tivism, and it can even be a case of “twosteps forward, one step to the side, threesteps back” and so on. In a strange sortof skeptical two-step, dedicated cam-paigners can find themselves right backat the start after waltzing around formonths if not years. But there are ex-ceptions.

Over the past year, thanks in largepart to skeptical activism, the PowerBalance franchise in Australia has col-lapsed. For those who don’t know,Power Balance is a thin rubber wristband with two embedded holographicdisks. In Australia the band cost $64AUD (~$68 USD). It was, and still is,claimed that the holograms contain

“frequencies” that can improve the bal-ance, strength, and flexibility of thewearer. Many sporting stars continue tothis day to promote the band. (See Har-riet Hall, “Power Balance Tech nology:Pseudoscientific Silliness Suck ers Card-Carrying Surfers,” SI, May/June 2010.)

In late 2009 I was asked to appear onthe Australian television news showToday Tonight to examine the claims ofthe Power Balance company by puttingnone other than Tom O’Dowd, theAustralian distributor of the product,through a series of tests. At first, whenO’Dowd demonstrated the effect of thehologram by pushing down on the out-stretched arms of six volunteers, the vol-unteers found that they had consider-ably more strength to resist once theyhad the hologram on them or nearthem. O’Dowd reported that he wasvery happy with the volunteers and allwas working as he predicted. I had theimpression that O’Dowd sincerely be-lieved in the product.

Then I produced one of the mostvaluable and powerful tools in the skep-tical arsenal: the humble six-sided die.Out of sight of O’Dowd (and me) theroll of the die decided which one of thevolunteers would have the hologramslipped into his or her back pocket. Asthe national television audience saw,O’Dowd (and thus Power Balance)failed five out of five times to identifythe correct volunteer during his strengthtests (see http://tinyurl.com/3yak3vo).

Inspired by this adventure and withhelp from skeptical friends, in early2010 I produced a ten-minute video forYouTube titled “Applied Kinesi ology:How It’s Done” (http://tinyurl.com/2v35zs3). This video shows the threeprimary tricks used by Power Balance(and its clones) to give the illusion ofmore power. (It is important to notethat even the person demonstrating thePower Balance can fall victim to theideomotor effect and thus not realizethat he or she in fact controls the per-

ceived power of the subject.) The videohas had more than one hundred thou-sand views, and judging by the e-mailsI have received, it has stopped manypeople from falling for the scam.

Then I visited the office of CHOICEmagazine, an independent consumerwatchdog, and suggested they considerdoing a report on Power Balance. I ex -plained the tricks used and advised ontesting. They, true to their guidelines,tested the product without further in -volvement by me or the Power Balancecompany. Their conclusion was that theproduct did not perform as claimed.They awarded the Power Balance bandtheir Shonky Award, given for the worstscams and rip-offs, in 2010. This eventwas covered by the media and sent out astrong message to the Australian public(see http://tinyurl.com/5rv987a).

With all the negative publicity andcomplaints, the government had to act.In December 2010 the Australian Com -petition and Consumer Commis sion(ACCC) ordered Power Balance Aus-tralia to refund all customers who feltthey had been ripped off. ACCC chair-man Graeme Samuel said in a state-ment: “Power Balance has admitted thatthere is no credible scientific basis forthe claims and therefore no reasonablegrounds for making representationsabout the benefits of the product.”

Sales dried up, and in May 2011 Pow -er Balance in Australia collapsed (seehttp://tinyurl.com/3o7blh3).

I am delighted to have played a smallpart in ending this scam that raked inmillions of dollars in Australia alone. Ithank reporter Frank Pangallo fromToday Tonight for asking me to take partin the television report that started theball rolling.

Richard Saunders is a CSI fellow, Life Member ofAustralian Skeptics, and producer of the SkepticZone podcast.

Power Balance, Down and Out in Australia

RICHARD SAUNDERS

Richard Saunders with Power Balance wrist bands,which he demonstrated don’t work.

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Skeptical Inquirer | September / October 2011 7

[ NEWS AND COMMENT

Loftus, Stollznow Join CSI Executive Council

The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry(CSI) has elected two new executivecouncil members, Elizabeth Loftus andKaren Stollznow. As members, theywill also serve on the SKEPTICAL IN-QUIRER editorial board.

Elizabeth Loftus is a world-re -nowned psychologist with an expertisein human memory. She has conductedextensive research on the misinformationeffect and the nature of false memories.In 20 02 she was ranked number 58 (the

highest-rank ed woman) on a list of the100 most influential researchers in psy-chology in the twentieth century.

At the University of California,Irvine, Loftus is a distinguished profes-sor in the Department of Psy chologyand Social Behavior; the Departmentof Criminology, Law, and Society; andthe Department of Cognitive Sciences,and she is also a fellow of the Centerfor the Neu ro biology of Learning andMemory and a professor of law.

Karen Stollznow has spent morethan a decade investigating pseudosci-entific and paranormal beliefs and prac-tices, including ghosts, aura reading, psy-chics, medical intuitives, alternativetherapies, mediums, faith healing, con-spiracy theories, cults, pareidolia (seeing

faces on places other than heads), reli-gion, haunted houses, and more.

Stollznow is a researcher at the Uni-versity of California, Berkeley, and re-ceived her PhD in linguistics from theUniversity of New England. A prolificwriter about skepticism, she is the“Naked Skeptic” columnist for CSI andthe “Bad Language” columnist forSkeptic magazine. In addition, she is ahost of the Point of Inquiry podcast anda cohost of the Monster Talk podcast.

She is a SKEPTICAL INQUIRER con-tributing editor and managing editor ofthe Center for Inquiry’s peer-reviewedjournal the Scientif ic Review of MentalHealth Practice. She is also a researchfellow of the James Randi EducationalFounda tion and a former director ofthe San Francisco Bay Area Skeptics.

“We are pleased to have both ofthese distinguished scholars fightingfor science and reason in the trenchesas part of their daily lives and profes-sions on the executive council,” saysBarry Karr, executive director of CSIand a CSI fellow. “With Karen’s hu-morous and stimulating contributionsto skepticism and Elizabeth’s achieve-ments in academia, they are welcomeadditions.”

Elizabeth Loftus

Karen Stollznow

“We are pleased to have both of these distinguished scholars fighting for science and reason in the trenches as part of their

daily lives and professions on the executive council.”

— Barry Karr,CSI executive director

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The newest fellow of the Committeefor Skeptical Inquiry is nationallyknown energy expert and entrepreneurThomas R. Casten.

Casten has devoted more than threedecades to developing decentralized en-ergy recycling projects. He is founderand chairman of Recycled Energy De -velopment, a Westmont, Illinois, com-pany that captures energy that is nor-

mally wasted and turns it into electricityand heat. He had earlier founded twoother energy cogeneration and recyclingcompanies. Casten is author of thebook Turning Off the Heat (Pro me theusBooks, 1998) and numerous journal andmagazine articles. He was lead author ofthe 2009 American Scien tist cover article“Getting the Most from Energy.” Hehas won many national awards and hasbeen profiled in science journals and na-tional magazines. He also serves on theboards of several energy organizations,the Cli mate Insti tute, and the OregonClimate Trust.

Casten has long been an outspokenadvocate of increasing energy efficien-cies by reducing energy waste in theproduction of electricity, both to saveenergy and to reduce global greenhousegases that cause global warming. Re -duc ing emissions this way, he argues,can be not only highly beneficial butalso economical (see his SI cover article“Critical Thinking About Energy,”January/February 2005).

He is a longtime supporter of theskeptical movement, having served formany years on the executive council andthe board of directors of the Committeefor Skeptical Inquiry and on the boardof the Center for Inquiry. His concernsinclude the need for critical thinkingand greater scientific literacy on scien-tific and technological issues essentialto the world’s future.

8 Volume 35 Issue 5 | Skeptical Inquirer

Casten Elected a Fellow of CSI

Play It Again, Sylvia: Failed Predictions on bin Laden, Aliens

BRYAN FARHA

The failed predictions of Sylvia Brownehave long been chronicled by severalskeptics, including this writer. Asidefrom the benign daily failed predictionsof relative unimportance, lately Brownehas missed the mark on “the big ones.”For example, we know about the 2004

cruelty of Browne telling the parents ofthen-missing child Shawn Hornbeckthat their son was dead—only to havehim found alive in 2007 (see “SylviaBrowne’s Biggest Blunder,” SI, May/June2007). Now we can add the failure ofher missed predictions about Osama

bin Laden and alien visitation. On December 28, 2005, I was a

guest on CNN’s Larry King Live alongwith a few alleged psychics, includingSylvia Browne. Regarding the subjectof Osama bin Laden, Browne and Ihad this brief exchange (from theCNN transcript):

FARHA: Well, first of all, let’s putthis in perspective here. Last year onThe Montel Williams Show, Sylviapredicted that Osama bin Laden is dead. I don’t know if Sylvia stillthinks that or not but I’d sure like to know.BROWNE: Yes, I do.FARHA: My whole take on thisis—Okay, very good, well, we’llfind out sometime, Sylvia. We’llfind out.Well, Sylvia, we found out. Bin

Laden was clearly alive in 2005 andlived until May 1, 2011. Another“big” prediction of Browne’s failed.

Then, in 2006, again on The Mon-tel Williams Show, Sylvia made thisprediction: “Aliens will begin to showthemselves in the year 2010, they will not harm us, they simply want tosee what we are doing to this planet.They will teach us how to use anti-gravity devices again, such as they didfor the pyramids” (from www.sylviabrowne.com).

Now that we are in 2011, we knowthis was yet another “big” predictionthat failed. In light of repeated failedpredictions, do you think Browne’sfollowers will abandon her? We knowthe answer to that. Play it again,Sylvia.

Bryan Farha is professor of behavioral stud-ies in education at Oklahoma City University.He is a CSI scientific and technical consult-ant and is editor of Paranormal Claims: A Crit-ical Analysis.

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Skeptical Inquirer | September / October 2011 9

[ NEWS AND COMMENT

Holly Bobo, a young nursing studentfrom Decatur, Tennessee, was ab-ducted April 13, 2011; she was lastseen being led into the woods nearher home by an individual wearingcamouflage. Despite national mediacoverage, extensive police searchesand investigation, and an $80,000 re-ward, neither Bobo nor her abductorhave been found. Police are no longeractively searching for her and have nosuspects, though the investigation re-mains open and ongoing.

The Bobo case was plagued by mis -information from the start; early re-ports falsely suggested that Bobo’sbrother Clint was a suspect in her dis-appearance. Police have complainedthat well-meaning individuals havebeen disseminating misinformationand false leads about the case, makingtheir job much more difficult anddoing far more harm than good.

Dozens of self-proclaimed psychicshave offered hundreds of incorrect,vague, and often contradictory tips.Here’s just a sample of information andleads offered by psychics on this case:Bobo’s abductor might have a scar onhis forehead, a rash on his elbow, or abite mark on his hand. He might workfrom home as a graphic designer andlong for the 1950s. His hair might bedark brown, blond, or salt-and-pepper.He might be clean shaven, or he mighthave a moustache. He might be a Scor-pio. He is either scrawny, of mediumbuild, or stocky and muscular—possi-

bly ex-military. He might own a blackleather wallet, and his name mightcontain one or more of the followingletters: B, A, J, R, W, or M; his last namemight be Glenn. Bobo might be (ormight have been at one point) in ornear a place that has the number sevenassociated with it, indicating an ad-dress, a highway number, or possiblythe distance from some landmark. Onepsychic said she believed that the lyricsof the Neil Diamond song “SeptemberMorning” contained important clues tofinding Bobo.

It’s not clear how police are sup-posed to use this jumble of random as-sociations, images, numbers, letters, andfeelings provided by psychics. This in-formation is so vague, general, and con-tradictory that it is completely useless.The case even attracted the attentionof TV psychic Carla Baron, who saidthat a friend of the Bobo family hadcontacted her on their behalf. Baronwas part of the TruTV show HauntingEvi dence, in which she and two otherinvestigators tackled real-life unsolvedmurders. The show was cancelled aftertwenty-two episodes without any ofthe cases having been solved; two werelater closed through police work (seeRad ford, “New Psy chic Detective (Un) -Reality Series: Haunting Evidence,” SI,Sep tember/October 2006). Baron hassaid that the Bobo family later chosenot to seek her information on Holly’sdeath on the advice of the police, whoBaron be lieves were “terrified to hearwhat I might have to say” about the ab-duction. The fact that psychic detec-tives have a zero percent track recordof success locating missing personsmight also have something to do withit. (For more on Baron, see “CarlaBaron, Psychic Detective? Not Quite,”SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, Sep tem ber/October 2006.)

—Benjamin Radford

Holly Bobo Still Missing; Psychics Hurt InvestigationBenjamin Radford

Insecurity!” (“The Perennial Fringe,”Spring 1986; reprinted in the SI anthol-ogy The Hundredth Monkey [Prome -theus Books, 1991]).

Fact-oriented, evidence-seeking,science-loving people like us—whoare very comfortable in the uncer-tainty and insecurity of fact-based re-liable and reputable information evenif it doesn’t provide us a thumb to suckor a skirt to hold—are in the minority.(And none of us is perfect in this re-gard either.) Most people, and againfew will admit it, really want thatcomforting stuff: Yes, there must belife after death. Yes, we can get wellfrom simple off-the-shelf remedies,untested or not, without resorting tocomplicated modern medicine. Sure,we can continue pumping 30.6 billionmetric tons of carbon dioxide green-house gas into the atmosphere peryear (the recently announced recordfigure for 2010) without changing it.No, we’re not really part of the animalkingdom descended from any of thoseugly, old, apelike creatures, and, no, wedon’t have any DNA in common withslime mold. We’re more special thanthat. Yes, yes, we must really be in someway the center of the universe. Therehas to be some great, essential cosmicmeaning! It’s all about us, isn’t it?

We crave information that reinforcesour beliefs. All other information takesa back seat or even gets tossed in thetrunk. Research about the brain has pro-duced a litany of new studies showingwhy that is so.

So, unless we find a way to overcomeour very human tendencies to seek outand find information that supports ourdeep-seated beliefs wh ile disregardingall information to the contrary, thequestion of how to filter through theexa- and zettabytes of “information” outthere to find reliable facts is more of a secondary information-processingprob lem. The primary problem is thatone core, incontestably human factabout ourselves.

KENDRICK FRAZIER

[ FROM THE EDITOR(Continued from page 4)

One psychic said she believed that the lyrics of

the Neil Diamond song“September Morning”

contained importantclues to finding Bobo.

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