Combining different modelling approaches for a participative

assessment of alternative agricultural systems at different scales

.Delmotte S 1*, Lopez-Ridaura S1, Goulevant G1, Mouret JC1, Le Page C2, Chauvelon P3, Sandoz A3, Barbier JM1, Wery J4

1INRA, UMR Innovation, 2 place Pierre Viala 34070 Montpellier Cedex 2.

Corresponding address :* delmotte@supagro.inra.fr2CIRAD, UPR Green, Campus International de Baillarguet, 34398 Montpellier Cedex 5, France

3Fondation Sansouire, Station Biologique de la Tour du Valat, Le Sambuc, F-13200 Arles, France4SupAgro, UMR System, 2 place Pierre Viala, 34060 Montpellier Cedex 2, France

Participative Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Systems

Multifunctionality of agriculture, importance of social, economic and environmental aspects.

Evaluate alternatives systems and trade-offs

Need for tools that allow PIMPAAS:

Prospective (alternative systems and changing environment)

Multiscale (different processes at different levels) Farm-regional (territory) scale

Multicriteria assesment (different objectives)

Participative (local knowledge, support for individual and collective decisions, negotiations)

Intr

oduc

tion

La Camargue Small and well delimited region (160 000 ha)

Several well identified actors (farmers, syndicate, cooperatives, natural parcs)

Several constrasting objectives (agricultural production, wildlife conservation…)

Concrete options for agricultural production (e.g. organic)

Intr

oduc

tion

Participative Integrated Assessment (PIA) of scenarios of future farming systems

1. Engagement of the local stakeholders (1/2) More than 20 individual meetings at the begining of the project

Identification of actors, scales of analysis and objectives

Scenarios: CAP reform: i.e. suppression of a rice coupled subsidy (2012)

and decrease of direct payment.

Pesticides reduction and OF development (national plan).

Appl

icati

on

1. Engagement of the local stakeholders (2/2)

Scales Indicators

Farm

Costs of production (€) Gross margin (€) Gross margin including subsidies (€) Total working time per year (h) Area organically managed (ha)

Farm, sub region, region

Amount of subsidies (€) Treatment Frequency Index (TFI) Area of each crop on organic and conventional (ha) Production of each crop on organic and conventional (t) Proportion of area organically managed

Sub region, region

Area of each crop Total value of agricultural productions (€) Proportion of irrigated area Water used for irrigation (m3) Employment generating by agricultural activities (man year)

Appl

icati

on

2. Data acquisition Definition of activities (1600)

Quantification of activities

2. A farm typology

3. Application of three approaches for scenario building and assesment

Development of a retrospective Land Use Change approach, discussion with local stakeholders

Development of an agent-based model (IMPASIAS -Integrated and Multiscale Participative Assessment of Scenarios and their Impacts on Agricultural Systems-) to formalize and evaluate scenarios with farmers during interactive simulation sessions, and discuss them with local stakeholders.

Scenario definition with the local stakeholders and co-construction of a bio-economic model

3 ap

proa

ches

3.1 LUC methodology

3.1 LUC resultsMain messages:Different strategies to adapt to economic changesIdentifying farm types more probable to convert to OF: livestock

breeder and diversified cereal farmersQuantifying variations and trends of land use at field/farm scale

Discussed with the stakeholders to make hypothesis on farm evolutions and think of farm adaptability

3.2 The IMPASIAS model

Agent-based model for interactive simulation. Based on the dynamic choice by individual farmer of land use at farm scale.

Interactive sessions in two steps: Decisions of land use (selection of

the agricultural activities)

Individual analysis of results at farm and regional scales

3 sessions, 14 farmers of 8 types

3.2 Results of scenario related to CAP reformAt farm level:

Diversified farms wont suffer much by CAP reform and could easily convert to OF.

Farming systems based on rice production would suffer a decrease of gross margin. Need to diversify, but none of the strategy tested gave satisfactory result from the farmers’ point of view.

At regional level: The suppression of specific payments could reduce the rice area

nearly by half issues related to processing industries and irrigation water infrastructure maintenance.

3.3 Co-construction of a Bio-Economic model

3.3 Bio-Economic model resultsAt farm level: Adapting to the CAP reform means diversifying production

unless a specific payment at 150€.ha-1 is maintained.

Diversifying with sorghum appeared to be a good alternative for either gross margin maintenance and pesticide reduction

At territorial level: The pesticide used would

decrease by 30% (ABM), however, with the same decrease in rice production, greater could reduction could be attained (BEM) with limited loss in regional value of agriculture Setting a new agri-environmental measure?

4. Combining the different approaches for PIMPAAS ?

Projection using LUC allowed: Improving knowledge on farming system functioning Identifying probable spots for change

Interactive simulation (ABM) with farmers allowed: Verifying and validating used data Mutual learning and reflection about adaptive strategies, Understanding land use decision making/constraints for farmers Upscaling and enhancing discussion with local stakeholders

Simulations with local stakeholders and the BEM allowed: Formalizing stakeholders objectives Identifying conflicts and trade-offs. Improving knowledge on local policy impacts and ex-ante

assessment of technical alternatives and policies

Dis

cuss

ion

4. The need for a participative approach?

For PIMPAAS, we need to :

Follow an adaptive process (from engagement to collaboration)

Engage stakeholders to get and legimate data

Identify sharing/conflicting objectives

Assume a neutral position

Improve our common understanding of issues related to agriculture

Dis

cuss

ion

Listen to stakeholders claims to collective discussions

Thanks for your attention!