combined solar and hp systems respond to policy goals...
TRANSCRIPT
Making buildings better
Combined solar and HP systems respond to policy goals and can
appeal to end userKrystynaDawsonBusinessmanagerWMI
May2017
2Making buildings betterBSRIA ©
Agenda
• Salesofhydronicheat pumpsinEurope– what’sgoingon?
• Decarbonisedelectricityisboth: advantageandthreatforHPs
• CombinedsolarandHPsystemscan helpreduceCO2emissionsinexistinghomes
• Supportneededtomaintainthevaluepropositionofcombinedsystemsinthelongterm
• Energystoragewillgainimportanceandsmartgridwillactasalongtermdriver
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Heat pumps dominating in Europe?
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Heat pumps historic growth in Europe
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units %growth
Source:BSRIAbasedondatafrom21Europeancountries
Sales of hydronic heat pumps Europe, units, 2006 – 2016 CAGR 2006 -16
8%
CAGR 2010 -16
9%
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Legislative push meets consumer resistance
European Legislation
National Building Regulations
Incentive programs
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Uneven growth in energy prices
€cent / kWh
Electricity price between 2006 and 2016
Up 47% Up 41%
Special tax on electricity in Germany and France
(Germany)
(France)
Gas price between 2006 and 2016
Up 10% Up 3%
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Increasing energy prices impact HP sales
‘000 units Spark, unit
Sales of hydronic heat pumps in Germany and France against the electricity / gas price ratio, units, 2006 – 2016
Source:BSRIAbasedondatafrom21EuropeancountriesSpark=ratiobetweenthepriceofelectricityandgasforresidentialenduser
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Slow progression of heating HPs
units
CAGR 26%
CAGR 2%
GrowthofhydronicHPsinEuropeandshareofDHPHeatPumps,2009- 2016
10%
63%
France
Germany
Italy
Slovenia
Poland
Switzerland
Others
2016DHWHPsalesbycountries
Source:BSRIAbasedondatafrom21Europeancountries
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Installations in new buildings dominate today
ShareofHPinstallationsinNewandExitingbuildingsinEurope
Source:BSRIAbasedondatafrom21Europeancountries
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Decarbonised electricity gives HP advantage
Kg CO2/year tCO2/MWhe
Level of CO2 emissions for households fitted with either A/W heat pump or gas condensing boiler in Germany and France
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Combined HP and PV installation lowers the energy cost for consumer
Yearly energy cost for a dwelling with Air to Water HP stand alone and combined with PV system (existing dwellings, € / year )
Source:BSRIA
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Combined HP and PV installation substantial in markets where spark is high
European HP market by type of installation, 2016
Most important markets for combined HP/PV installations, 2016
Total number of combined HP/PV systems: ~ 21,000Source:BSRIAbasedondatafrom21EuropeancountriesSpark=ratiobetweenthepriceofelectricityandgasforresidentialenduser
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Residential photovoltaic systems already well established
Estimated 4 million systems installed in 2014 / Installed capacity
Residential photovoltaic systems installed in 6 main European markets
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Reinforced value proposition is needed for the future
ProjectedenergycostforadwellingwithheatpumpinrelationtoelectricitypriceandFiT*GERMANY
Source:BSRIAbasedondatafrom21Europeancountries
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Energy storage can be applied at different stages of the value chain
ProductionRenewablesCapacityfirmingSmoothingandShaving1– 10MW
TransmissionAncillaryservicesFrequencycontrol10– 50MW
DistributionLoadmanagementPeakshavingVoltagecontrol100kW– 1MW
ConsumptionTimeshiftingLocalenergymanagementIncreaseon-siterenewablesself-consumption5– 50kW
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Advances in battery storage
• Batterystoragehasbeenseenasprohibitivelyexpensive,butthecostisgraduallydecreasing
• LeadandlithiumbatteriesarenowcommerciallyavailableinEuropeforc.€1,000(or$1,200)perKwH.
• InApril2015USelectriccarmanufacturerTeslalaunchedPowerwall,- batterystorageaimedattheresidentialmarket.oa7kWhunitfor$3,000oa10kWhunitwillretailfor$3,500
• InJune2015,Mercedeslauncheda2.5KwHhomebattery.oUpto8canbeusedincombination,providing20KwH
• InNovember2015E.ONannouncedthatitisconcentratingondevelopingenergystorageinresidentialandfocusingonlithium-ionasitexpectsitscosttofallbyabout50%inthenextfiveyears.
BatteriesfrombothTeslaandMercedestargetedattheresidentialmarketprovidefurtherevidenceoftechnologymovingintothebuiltenvironmentfromelsewhere.
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Push for development of battery storage
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Smart grid advances in the future
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Long term market drivers for Heat Pumps
2010 2015 2020 2030
marketsize
Source:BSRIA
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Summary
• Heatpumpsaregrowingbutriseinelectricitypricesunderminetheircompetitiveness
• CombinedHPandPVinstallationsareattractiveaslowenergycostsystemandasalowcarbonsolution
• ElectricstorageandincreasedselfconsumptioncanoffsetgradualdecreaseinFiT andincreaseinelectricityprices
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Conclusions
• Heatpumpsneedstrongervaluepropositiontobecomerealmainstream
• CombinedHP/PVandstoragesystemscanengageconsumersgivingthemcontroloverenergycost
• Utilitieshavestartedtorecognisethevalueofsuchproposition.Let’shopethatpolicymakerswillnotwaittoolongforrecognisingitaswell.
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Thank you
KrystynaDawsonBusinessManager– BSRIAWMIWorldwideMarketIntelligence
OldBracknellLaneWest,Bracknell,BerkshireRG127AHD:+44(0)1344465638F:+44(0)1344465626
M:+44(0)7990595836E:[email protected]:www.bsria.co.uk
Moreinformationatwww.bsria.co.uk/market-intelligence