Colorado Front Range air quality 2014 AQAST update

David Edwards and Gabriele Pfister National Center for Atmospheric Research

Boulder, CO

AQAST 2013 Tiger Team Project

In collaboration with Patrick Reddy, Gordon Pierce and Jane Mitchell (CDPHE, Denver, CO)

Yang Liu and Matthew Strickland (Emory University, GA)

Air Quality and Health Impacts from the Summer 2012 Colorado Wildfires

Colorado experienced one of its most costly and devastating fire seasons in 2012

Goal 1: Establish impacts of wildfires on Human health Epidemiological analysis based on hospital admissions and other health data Bring together air quality managers, health authorities and academic and

agency scientists

Goal 2: Quantify fire impact on AQ Provide material in support of exceedance demonstration

Analysis of Satellite and Surface Observations &

AQ Modeling of Fire Impact and Exposure:

Satellite Retrievals: MODIS, IASI, MOPITT, OMI

Surface Obs: EPA, CASTNET, NOAA Modeling: WRF-Chem

Document fire contribution on AQ and support

exceedance demonstration

Health Data provided by

CDPHE

Epidemiological Study on Fire

Impact

Evaluate effectiveness of current wildfire

advisories

Fire Impact/Exposure Analysis

o Front Range - Complex topography and flow patterns o Diverse sources (urban, agriculture, oil/gas, fires….) o Long-range transport o Fires: Highly variable source; localized impacts o Limited set of observations for evaluation Challenges:

WRF-Chem Modeling Numerous sets of simulations (12 km & 4 km) have been conducted

testing different meteorology, emissions, physics schemes, etc. Meteorology

o Observation nudging and assimilation provide similar statistics, but neither fully capture the complex flow patterns

o Data assimilation provides a more balanced simulation and indicates slightly better agreement with observations, albeit computationally much more expensive for experimental runs

Anthropogenic emissions: o Colorado specific only for 2008 and 2018: CDPHE 2008, AQMEII 2010,

projected NEI 2011, NEI 2011, CDPHE 2018

Fire emissions: o NCAR/FINN too low and area burned underestimated by factor 2 compared to

independent data; improved with burned area calculations from SMARTFIRE o Both estimates very different from NASA/QFED

v

v

v

v

Anthropogenic Emissions

+22% +27%

Colorado/CDPHE EI projected to 2018 / US EPA NEI 2011 / AQ Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII 2010)

NO

C3H8

-200% +70% San Juan Basin

Denver Basin

Piceance Basin

Paradox Basin

Uintah Basin

Exceedance Demonstration

Objective: Provide input to exceedance demonstration (package submitted to EPA within 3 years of events)

Identified Ozone Events (compiled by CDPHE): 6/17/2012 Rocky Mountain NP 7/4/2012 Rocky Mountain NP 8/21/2012 Rocky Mountain NP 8/31/2012 Rocky Mountain NP

6/17 7/4

Surface Ozone @ Rocky Mountain NP Observations WRF-Chem with QFED WRF-Chem no fires

6/17

7/4

Surface Monitors

CDPHE Identified Ozone Event 17 June 2012 – High Park Fire

Event 17 June 2012 – High Park Fire

WRF-Chem with QFED Fires

WRF-Chem without Fires

Daily Average PM2.5 Daily 8-hour Max Ozone

Event 17 June 2012

Event 4 July 2012 – Transport

Denver Post, 5 July 2012

CO Tropospheric Column

IASI

MOPITT

Aerosol Optical Depth

MODIS

WRF-Chem

Event 4 July 2012 – Transport

Event 4 July 2012 – Transport Daily Average PM2.5 Daily 8-hour Max Ozone

WRF-Chem with QFED Fires

WRF-Chem without Fires

Health Study Yang Liu, Matt Strickland and Breanna Alman (Emory University)

Explore the relationship of PM2.5 with ED visits and acute hospitalizations for asthma and determine whether wildfire smoke was a contributing factor.

Increased PM2.5 from fires resulted in an increase in asthma ED visits and acute hospitalizations

One of the first studies to look at concentration-response effects of PM2.5 over a long-lasting fire period, and one of the first to cover such a large geographic area

Conditional Logistic Regression inputs at 12 km x 12 km for 1 June – 10 July, 2012

• CDPHE/Colorado Hospital Association Hospitalization and Emergency Dept. Data

• CDPHE Hourly PM2.5 observations & WRF-Chem exposure modeling

• North American Land Data Assimilation System Temperature Data

Concentration-Response Association for PM2.5 and asthma visits (all ages)

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Colorado Department for Health and Environment (CDPHE), NASA Airborne Science Program, Colorado State University (CSU), University of Colorado Boulder,

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 8, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Park Service (NPS), Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC), UC Berkeley, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, US Naval Academy, U of Wisconsin, U of Rhode Island, U of Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, GO3 Project, Aerodyne

Inc., and many others!

High summertime ozone - non-attainment Complex topography and meteorology

active photochemistry Diverse set of emission sources (urban,

oil/gas, industrial, agriculture, biogenic, fires) Impact on downwind regions (central plains) Inflow from UT, WY, CA, and Asia

https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/frappe

Objective: Characterize the factors driving summertime pollution

Picture Courtesy: James Crawford, NASA

• NASA P-3: Continuous mapping of aerosols (HSRL) and trace gas columns (ACAM)

• NASA B-200: In situ profiling of aerosols and trace gases over surface sites

• Ground: In situ trace gases and aerosols, Remote sensing of trace gas and aerosol columns, Ozonesondes, Aerosol lidar

• NASA Falcon: GEO-TASO

NSF/NCAR C-130: In situ profiling of aerosols and trace gases Ground: In-situ chemistry and aerosols, tethered balloon, wind profilers, mobile vans, canisters, etc. Chemical Modeling: Forecasting and Analysis

Tracer Forecast Oil and Gas Source Tracer

• Quantify sources and constrain inventories – Transportation, Oil and Gas Extraction (-> AQAST Tiger Team), Power

Generation, Agricultural activities, Vegetation • Quantify the interaction and the overall impact of these emissions on

local and regional AQ – Air mass composition (organics, oxidants, NOx) – Climate impact – Ozone and oxidant formation – Formation and evolution of particulates – Mountain induced recirculation – accumulation of pollutants

• Quantify import of larger scale emissions and impact on local AQ – UT and WY oil and gas extraction and power generation, California, Asian

emissions, potential wildfires

➪ Relate Surface AQ to satellite measurements ➪ Improve Meteorological and AQ Models ➪ Provide scientific basis for informed decision making ➪ Strong Education and Outreach Component

SCIAMACHY NO2 Columns: May-Sep. 2010 Dots: Oil and Gas Wells

Si-Wan Kim, Gabrielle Petron, Gregory Frost, NOAA

CDPHE Oil and Gas Regulation • Recent State rules expanded to include regulation of methane leaks • CDPHE has an aggressive inspection and enforcement program, including:

– annual inspections of major (>100 tpy) sources – 4 full time FLIR (infrared) camera inspectors – inspection of exploration and production operations

• CDPHE’s Oil and Gas team works collaboratively with other state, local and federal officials as well as scientific, community groups, etc.

• The O&G team welcomes appropriate calls and reports of major leaks, etc. that may be observed during the FRAPPE campaign

• All O&G operations required to post CDPHE identification numbers, permits, etc. on location at the site

22 Courtesy: Gordon Pierce (CDPHE)

• Over 51,000 active wells in Colorado – Over 22,000 of these in the North Front Range

• Over 8000 condensate tanks • Compressor stations, etc.

Concurrent with NASA DISCOVER-AQ 4th Deployment

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NASA Airborne Science Program Colorado Department for Health and Environment (CDPHE), Colorado State University (CSU), University of Colorado Boulder, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 8, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Park Service (NPS), Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC), UC Berkeley, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, US Naval Academy, U of Wisconsin, U of Rhode Island, U of Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, GO3 Project, Aerodyne Inc., and others

• Characterize emissions from Oil & Gas (O&G) Operations on regional (aircraft) and local (mobile vans, surface stations) scales

• Distinguish methane from O&G from other sources (e.g. agriculture) using tracer correlations and methane isotopes

• Study transport of O&G emissions and mixing with pollution from other sources

• Relate FRAPPÉ results to previous U.S. wide studies • Evaluate Satellite Methane Retrieval Products • Link to ongoing projects:

• North Front Range Oil and Gas Air Pollutant Emissions and Dispersion Study (CSU)

• CU NSF AirWaterGas.org

IASI and MOPITT Images Past and in Near-Real time www.acd.ucar.edu/acresp/mopitt-iasi/plots.shtml

Event 4 July 2012 – Transport

GOES Fire Detection

IASI CO Column

Daily Total NOx Emissions

June-July NOx Emissions

Fire Emissions FINN with Smartfire burned area NASA/QFED

FINN QFED

NOx emissions (moles/km2/day)

Event 4 July 2012 – Transport

Rocky Mountain National Park

Rocky Flats

"July Maximum Surface Ozone, Meteorological Variables, and Satellite NO2 in Colorado and other Western States”

(paper in preparation, lead author Patrick Reddy, CDPHE)

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Rocky Flats North

Denver July Mean 500 mb Height in MetersJuly

Mea

n Da

ily M

ax 8

-hr O

3 in

ppb

R-Squared = 0.86

High Correlations Between July Means for Daily Max O3 and 500 mb Heights Observed Surface Ozone and 500mb Height Re-Analysis

Analysis by Patrick Reddy

"July Maximum Surface Ozone, Meteorological Variables, and Satellite NO2 in Colorado and other Western States”

(paper in preparation, lead author Patrick Reddy, CDPHE)

Analysis: Gabriele Pfister

High Correlations Between July Means for Daily Max O3 and 500 mb Heights Statistical Analysis of 13 year-long regional climate simulations

Present Time Scenario

"July Maximum Surface Ozone, Meteorological Variables, and Satellite NO2 in Colorado and other Western States”

(paper in preparation, lead author Patrick Reddy, CDPHE)

Analysis: Gabriele Pfister

High Correlations Between July Means for Daily Max O3 and 500 mb Heights Statistical Analysis of 13 year-long regional climate simulations

2050 Scenario

Current and Next Steps

Proposal to BLM (declined) and NIH (to be submitted) for continuation of health study (multiple summers)

Finalize set of model simulations and continue through August

Compose documentation for exceedance demonstration by 2015

Results from FRAPPÉ are expected to provide important information on improving model simulations (emission constraints, data for evaluating and refining model configuration, etc.)

Workshop Presentations

• Air Quality and Oil & Gas Development in the Rocky Mountain Region Workshop, October 2013, Boulder CO: “FRAPPÉ: The Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment” (G. Pfister)

• 2013 Western Air Quality Modeling Workshop, July 2013, Boulder, CO: “Modeling Ozone Exceptional Events: California, 2008 & Colorado/Wyoming, 2012” (G. Pfister)

• WESTAR Wildfire and Ozone Exceptional Events Meeting, Sacramento, CA, March 2013, “Modeling Ozone Exceptional Events: California, 2008 & Colorado/Wyoming, 2012” (G. Pfister)

Presentations and Outreach for FRAPPÉ (Media, AQ Organizations (APCD, RAQC, ...), Industry (COGA, CO Energy Coalition,...), Non-profit groups (Rotary Club, Lung Association,...), etc. https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/frappe https://www.eol.ucar.edu/field_projects/frappe http://ucarconnect.ucar.edu/features/air-quality-research