coincidence & probability judgements. learning objectives to explore further ways to account for...
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Coincidence “The co-occurrence of two or more events which, by chance, happen at the same time, leading to a belief that these events are connected when in fact they are not” Things happening together How many paranormal experiences are just a coincidence? The Birthday Problem ▫You walk into a room of 22 people, what are the chances of you having the same birthday as someone else in the room? ▫More likely than not (50.7%) May be seen as ‘spooky’ or that you have a ‘connection’ but is simple probability (coincidence)TRANSCRIPT
Coincidence & Probability Judgements
Learning Objectives •To explore further ways to account for
factors underlying anomalous experiences•To understand the role of deception, self
deception, superstition & coincidence•To investigate the methods used to
achieve these things
Coincidence • “The co-occurrence of two or more events which, by
chance, happen at the same time, leading to a belief that these events are connected when in fact they are not”
• Things happening together• How many paranormal experiences are just a
coincidence?• The Birthday Problem
▫ You walk into a room of 22 people, what are the chances of you having the same birthday as someone else in the room?
▫ More likely than not (50.7%)• May be seen as ‘spooky’ or that you have a ‘connection’
but is simple probability (coincidence)
Explaining Coincidence • Watt (1990/91)• There is a “Hidden Cause” – You dream a celebrity has
died. You wake up & put the news on to see that they are dead. Telepathic right?▫ WRONG – could be that you overheard a TV or conversation
before going to bed without realising it▫ There is a “Hidden Cause” to your reported ability that you are
not aware of • Multiple End Points – You ‘feel’ a friend is going to call & at
that moment another one does. You then think you are close to getting it right so must have psychic ability ▫ A nearly is more likely than an exact. There is more chance of
this happening but this ‘coincidence’ may lead you to thinking you have an ability.
Explaining Coincidence •Watt (1990/91)•The Law of Extremely Large Numbers –
‘WOW this is amazing, this hardly ever happens to anyone’▫Something which happens 1 in 1Million
every day is going to happen to 61 people every day in the UK (pop. 61 Million) or 22,265 times a year
▫Not amazing just coincidence, maths, the Law of Extremely Large Numbers
Coincidence •Blackmore & Troscianko (1985)•Looked at sheep & goats (psi & non-psi)
opinions of a gender mix at a party•Sheep less likely to spot a bias•More likely to see things as out of the
ordinary than down to chance
Probability Judgements •This is the reasoning associated with
coincidence, the cognitive side•Self deception may be a form of
probability judgement
Self Deception • Telling yourself one thing to confirm your false
beliefs• “Mislead self to accept true what is most likely
false”• Justifying false beliefs
▫“Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi has told the BBC he is loved by all his people and has denied there have been any protests in Tripoli. . . Col Gaddafi said true Libyans had not demonstrated but those who had come on to the streets were under the influence of drugs supplied by al-Qaeda”
Self Deception •Gilovich (1993) – 3 Methods of self
deception• Misinterpretation of data – seeing patterns
that aren’t there• Misinterpretation of incomplete/
unrepresentative data – focusing on confirmatory data while ignoring data which goes against idea
• Uncritical of support but very critical of contrary information
Gilovich (1993) •This would mean you need control in
research, double blind studies, randomisation of conditions, replicable & publication
•BUT… This is not possible with spontaneous events (UFO’s, ghosts, poltergeists etc.) so if you believe Gilovich then all paranormal events are tainted by self deception
•Irwin (2002) – all researchers believe/study self serving information
Superstitions & Magical Thinking
Superstition• “Belief in the significance of a behaviour not based on
knowledge or reason”• Friday 13th , breaking a mirror, walking under a ladder
etc.• The basic principal which underlies all superstitions is
the idea that we have control over things out of our control - decrease anxiety = increase supersition
• But why do we have superstitions?▫ Behavioural▫ Psychodynamic▫ Cognitive
• As psychologists, you should be able to come up with the theories!
Behavioural• Skinner, operant conditioning, reward & punishment.
Rewards increase behaviour.• Superstitions are learnt• Skinner – Superstitions learnt in Pigeons
▫ Given food every 15 secs. This then increased in random durations until 60 secs
▫ Repetitive behaviour was noticed in the pigeons in-between receiving the food
▫ Head tossing, swinging, hopping, spinning etc.▫ As though these behaviours influenced receiving the food (it
didn’t)• Transferred to humans, they may learn superstitions. By not
walking under a ladder & getting to work safely, this is a reward
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uPmeWiFTIw
Psychodynamic• Freud (1901) – unconscious, unacceptable thoughts
repressed in unconscious, unknown motive for behaviour.
• Superstitions = attaching unconscious threats to real world events
• E.g. Bad thought (harm to a loved one) = guilt in the unconscious = expectation that something bad will happen to them
• This ‘terror’ that something bad will happen manifests it’s self in the conscious by performing behaviours to prevent it e.g. not walking under a ladder
Psychodynamic cont.• No psychodynamic approach would be complete
without bringing sex into it…• Marmor (1956) – Oedipus/Electra complexes.
Hostility felt towards same sex parent▫Boys – Jealous of dad because of feelings towards
mum▫Girls – Angry at mum for castration
• The child needs the parent & so can not vent this hostility
• Hostility ‘housed’ in unconscious & needs to be calmed by behaviours e.g. knocking on wood
• Unfalsifiable
Cognitive •Jahoda (1969) – thinking error’s/false
perception or memory•The way we think about situations may
lead to superstitions•‘Selective forgetting’ –we forget the
information which disproves a superstition but remember info which confirms it
•Lehmann (1898) – memories fragile
Cognitive – More recently• Lindemann & Aarnio (2007)• Cyanide – deadly chemical for humans. Used in
Nazi death camps, taken by Nazi leaders when captured, execution of criminals in USA, ‘00’ agents given them to take if captured
• Intuitive (hunches, gut feeling) vs. Analytical (explainable, rational) thinkers
• Intuitive thinkers have superstitions• Cause & effect – are the superstitions causing
the thinking style or is the thinking style causing the superstition?
Cognitive – More recently cont.• Intentionality – implying an inanimate object or
body part is capable of thinking• Linderman & Saher (2007) – superstitious
people more likely to state that thinks have intentionality
• “a cut finger wants to get better” “We grow because our bones want to” – even with same biological knowledge
• Dual-coding process theory. Everyone encodes intuitively & analytically – Superstitious more intuitively, not stupid.
Magical Thinking•Magical Thinking
▫The belief in magic, all things are connected, powers, forces, rituals (e.g. rain dance)
•Law of Contagion▫The thinking that things which have been in
contact together retain some sort of magical connection even when separated
▫Hitler’s Coat▫Linked to thought-action fusion from OCD –
Einstein & Menzies (2003) found a strong correlation between OCD & Magical thinking
Magical Thinking• Law of Similarity
▫ The idea that objects or events which are similar or resemble each other are connected in a causal way that defies scientific investigation
• Pills▫ De Craen et al. (1996) – 6 studies in the BMJ on belief of effectiveness of
different pills. Found ‘Magical Thinking’.▫ Red, Orange & Yellow – Stimulant▫ Blue & Green – Sedative▫ Red – cardio-vascular, blood (Law of Similarity)▫ Orange - Skin
• Voodoo▫ Voodoo dolls▫ ‘You can give someone a headache by taking and turning their picture
upside down.’ ▫ ‘You can harm a person in whatever way you want to by getting a lock of
his hair and burning some and throwing the rest away.’
Magical Thinking• Coping Mechanism
▫ One possible reason for magical thinking is as a coping mechanism to the world
• Cognitive▫ Again think control over the uncontrollable
• Psychodynamic▫ Childhood trauma▫ Lawernce et al. (1994) - Positive correlation between
childhood trauma and magical thinking▫ Perkins & Allen (2006) – Childhood abuse – more magical
thinking for ESP (control) rather than UFO’s (not control)▫ Irwin (1994) – Children of alcoholics have stronger
magical thinking to cope with negative atmosphere
Coincidence & Superstition recap•Describe the behavioural approach to
superstition.•Describe the psychodynamic approach to
superstition.•Describe the cognitive approach to superstition.•Define the ‘Law of Contagion’•Define the ‘Law of Similarity’•What are Watt’s 3 ways in which coincidence
may explain the paranormal?•Define a coincidence
What you should know by now…•The definition of coincidence &
probability judgements•The explanations for superstitions and
magical thinking•How these 4 things may explain
paranormal experiences•Research to support each of these
Prep•“Discuss the psychology of coincidence &
probability judgements and superstition & Magical thinking (20 marks)”