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CMD Antwerp – 15 November 2016

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Page 1: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

CMD Antwerp – 15 November 2016

Page 2: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

Welcome!

Page 3: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

Koen Van Gerven

Chief Executive Officer

Page 4: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

8.00 pm – 9.45 pm

Visit Sorting Centre

3:10 pm – 3.30 pm

Break6.00 pm – 7.15 pm

Drink & Dinner

1.00 pm – 3:10 pm

Part 1 and Q&A3.30 pm – 5.40 pm

Part 2 and Q&A

Agenda of today

Page 5: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

Please mute your mobile

Page 6: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

CMD Antwerp – 15 November 2016

Page 7: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

We are a leading postal operator building on strong foundations

Leading market position in the resilient Belgian mail market with a balanced regulatory framework

Focused mail and parcels business with a proven strategy for profitable growth

Scope for continued cost improvements

Strong financial performance supporting a high level of cash flow generation and dividends

Proven performance track record

Page 8: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

494480

436404

359

319

240222

183160

82

37

-69

1105 1008 09 12 140706

+20% p.a.

201513042003

-3.5Normalized EBIT margin, Percent

1.7 3.9 7.2 8.0 9.8 10.7 13.8 15.2 16.7 18.0 19.5 20.5

Transformation journey has resulted in a strong financial performance …Normalized1 EBIT, EUR million

1 Excluding non-recurring items

Page 9: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

... While undergoing structural ownership changes and gradual privatization

2003

Ambitiousmodernization plan is launched

2006

State share drops to ~50% while Post Danmark and CVC take a joint

49.99% shareholding

Modern corporate governance structure & discipline reflects international shareholdership

2009

Post Danmark leaves the consortium, leaving

CVC as the sole private shareholder

2013

bpost becomes a listed company after successful IPO

Further internationalization of shareholder base

Level-playing field with other listed companies

2015

Modernization of the 1991 Law for autonomous

public companies

Adoption of corporate governance charter to reinforce state-of-the-art

governance

Page 10: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

2016

At least 1.29

2015

+2% p.a.

+12% p.a.

2014

1.26

2013

1.13

1.29

Since the IPO in 2013 this translated into increasing dividends EUR

Page 11: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

we are mail we grow we are lean, agile & flexible

we are @ core

Our strategy is simple and focused

Page 12: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

We made clear choices to drive value creation & reward shareholders

Remain relevant for all stakeholders (e.g., loyal customers, passionate employees, rewarded shareholders)

Deliver operational excellence (e.g., culture of

continuous improvements, Vision 2020), in a context of

powerful natural attrition lever

Provide ongoing and relentless support to mail

as an effective communication medium

Support organic growth and external growth in domestic and international parcels (B2C eCommerce and B2B), proximity and convenience services

We are mail

We are lean, agile & flexible

We grow

We are @ core

Page 13: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

We have continued to deliver on this strategy in 2016

High employee commitment High customer satisfaction

(quality improvement) New Collective Labor Agreement

FTE savings in line with guidance

Sorting center expansion completed in time and within initial budget

Overhead cost reduction program completed

Mail volume decline in line with 2016 guidance of -5% (strong performance of advertising mail)

Management contract and press distribution approved until end of 2020

USO provider until end of 2018

Double digit (15.2%1) profitable growth in domestic parcels

Sustained international expansion Acquisitions and partnerships, incl.

expanded proximity & convenience retail (Lagardère Travel Retail) and innovative parcel delivery solutions (Parcify, de Buren)

Increased revenue from new solutions

We are mail

We are lean, agile & flexible

We grow

We are @ core

1 +14.5% when excluding calendar effects

Page 14: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

46

82

142

146

182

193

215

216

223

259

NL

UK

DE

IT

DK

BE

SW

FR

AU

CH

-11.5

-9.2

-9.1

-5.0

-4.7

-3.9

-3.4

-3.0

-3.0

-2.0

BE

SW

FR

CH

DE

UK

AU

DK

IT

NL

2

8

2

2

4

2008-15 CAGR for addressed mail volumesAs reported by major incumbent EU postal operators, percent

Addressed mail volume per capita 2015Operator level1

We benefit from a relatively resilient mail market vs. other countries

6

SOURCE: Annual reports; Investor presentations; IPC; Eurostat

3

7

2

5

2

8

2

2

4

9

3

2

2

5

Note: definition of addressed mail may differ by operator1 Excludes domestic competitors2 Includes addressed mail3 Includes inland addressed mail, limited to 20144 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct mail / media post

6 Includes addressed mail excluding press7 Includes all mail8 Includes addressed mail (publishers

services excl.), limited to 20149 Includes all domestic mail

Page 15: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

Mail volume evolution, underlying

Percent

-4.5

-5.0

2016 guidance

~-5.0

2016 Q3 YTD actualsFY2015 actuals

2016 YTD mail volume decline is lower than last year and in line with guidance

Page 16: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

Mail volume evolution, underlying

Percent

-7.4

-4.8-5.3-4.7-5.9-5.3-5.3

-4.2-4.7-5.9-5.3

Transactional mail

Advertising mail

Press

At the same time, mail volume decline has become increasingly volatile

-1.2-2.2

0.1

-1.2-2.4

-9.9

-5.9

-2.1-3.7-3.6

-2.7

-4.2

-0.3

-2.6-3.6

-0.1

-4.0-3.1

-2.6-2.5-2.9-3.2

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Page 17: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

▪ New law of December 16, 2015 creating a level playing field for listed public companies in Belgium

▪ Tendering process reconfirmed bpost as operator until end of 2020

▪ bpost designated by law as the USOprovider until end of 2018

▪ USO pricing regulated by price cap formula

▪ 6th Management Contract has been confirmed until end of 2020

▪ Compensation methodology validated by EC to ensure no over-compensation

Reconfirmed balanced regulatory framework

Press tendering

BE regulation

UniversalService

Obligation(USO)

6th

ManagementContract

Page 18: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

SGEIs are compensated following strict guidelines set by EU while USO delivery is not compensated

Net avoided cost of each SGEI, i.e., the difference in bpost’s profit in the as-is situation (under the constraints of the 6th MC) and bpost’s profit in the situation in which it would not be subject to those constraints

Compensation includes an incentive for efficiency gains realized over the duration of the 6th MC provided a number of quality criteria are met

Yearly compensation is capped, i.e., if the sum of the net avoided costs and the efficiency gains in a given year is higher than the cap foreseen in the 6th

MC, the State will be able to recover the excess compensation for that year

No compensation for USO delivery

Net avoided cost

Financial incentives

Compensation cap

Page 19: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

1 +14.5% when excluding calendar effects

Continued double digit growth in parcels, further supported by acquisitions, partnerships and innovative new ventures

Domestic parcelsVolume, percent growth

International parcelsEUR mln

Acquisitions, partnerships and innovative new ventures

7.0%7.1%

1.1%

2016 Q3 YTD

15.2%1

12.6%

15142012 13

125

170

143

92

115

2011 12 1413 15 2016 Q3 YTD

+140.3% p.a.

In line with guidance In line with guidance

Page 20: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

Development of Lagardère Travel Retail’s Belgian activities in line with bpost’s strategy

Operate distribution platform of newspapers and periodicals to proximity stores all over the country

Ambition to grow margin to 5-6% (from 3.3%)

Ambition to generate cost synergies of €4-5m p.a.Strong strategic fit

Diversify into growing retail proximity & convenience distribution (+4 to 6% CAGR 2015-20)

Further enable domestic parcels growth strategy by increasing network coverage to over 1,900 points

Page 21: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

Productivity improvement of 800-1,200 FTEs in the past, 2016 guidance at the lower end of the rangeNumber of FTEs & interims (average)

FTE evolution

24,70325,41426,32927,411

28,78630,023

2010

-4% p.a.

14 2015131211

2016 guidance

2016 guidance “Lower end” of the range

Low range (-800 FTE)

High range (-1,200 FTE)

Page 22: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

Productivity improvement 2016 YTD in line with guidance, adjusted for Deltamedia integrationNumber of FTEs and interims (average)

300

2016 FY guidance productivity

improvement

-800

FY impact of Deltamedia integration

2016 Q3 YTD actual productivity

improvement1

-486

2016 FY guidance net of Deltamedia

-500

1 Excluding M&A and additional FTEs for parcels volume above guidance

Page 23: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

Besides productivity gains, change in mix continues to contribute to labor cost control

69%

46%

31%

25%

29%

Statutories

Auxiliarypostmen

Q3 2016

Baremiccontractuals

2009

0%

bpost contract types1

Average number of FTEs, %

1 Average number of FTEs excluding students, interims, non-baremic contractualsand subsidiaries

100

~70

~90

-30%

Average cost per contract typeIndexed on statutory employee cost

Page 24: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

FTE evolution going forward will combine the current discipline with upside from expansionNumber of FTEs

FTE current

Upsidefrom chosenexpansion

Base asplanned

Efficiency gains

Inorganic growth

Organic growth

Total

Page 25: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

2016 key achievements Key milestones in 2017

Re-routing of mail and parcel flows

16 mixed sorting machines (MSM) installed

Opening of new BX IMCExtension of 4 sorting centres completed on time and within initial budget

Double parcel sorting capacity

New Brussels X IMC on its way

180 m

13

0 m

4 infeed areas

140 indirect chutes

400 direct chutes

2 crossbelt sorters2 x 528 m

We have delivered on Vision 2020 implementation, to be continued in 2017

Page 26: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

Description

In addition, toolbox of measures for management to trigger in case of acceleration of mail volume decline (e.g., different distribution

setup, further overhead cost savings, pricing lever)

We have a pipeline of cost initiatives for 2017 and beyond NOT EXHAUSTIVE

MSO continuous improvement initiatives on top of Vision 2020

▪ Redefine collect organizations with central support and dedicated tools

▪ Share best practice between IMCs to improve Preparation productivity

▪ Continuously review “penetration rate” in distribution to reshape organization accordingly

Additional cost

initiatives

Vision 2020 ▪ Further automation of preparation in Industrial Mail Centers

▪ Centralization of mailbag preparation

▪ Further reduction of distribution offices (~450 at start of program) to ~60 mail centres

▪ Increased efficiency in parcels sorting

Non-MSO1

initiatives ▪ Improvement initiatives beyond MSO in ICT (e.g., development of Agile

Ops), central support functions, retail network (e.g., call center optimization), procurement, Parcels & International (e.g., synergies between BUs)

Cost initiatives launched

in 2017

1 Mail Service Operations

Page 27: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

Improved quality and customer satisfactionCustomer satisfaction1, %

Committed to pay annual dividend of minimum 85% of BGAAP net profit

Focused on environmental impact through implementation of CO2 reduction programs

Committed and caring employer focused on well-being of employees

1st

on the IPCEnviron-mental Ranking

2013

88

85

2015

0.93 1.05

0.20

1.131.29

0.24

20152013

Interim gross DPS (€)Final gross DPS (€)

1 “Satisfied customers” (score of 5 or above on a scale from 1 to 7 on the question: “Overall, how satisfied are you about bpost?”) based on bpost commissioned survey by Ipsos-Synovate

bpost is committed to keep all stakeholders on board

Page 28: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

There is a compelling rationale for a combination with PostNL

Compelling industrial and

strategic rationale

Substantial value creation

Safeguard all stakeholders’

interests

▪ Maintain commitment to affordable, sustainable, solid and reliable “universal and public services” in both countries, respective USO and broader public services

▪ Combine forces to be better equipped to combat declining mail volumes together

▪ Become a leading player in the parcel business; an area in which we are growing and which is of strong importance for us but where we seek to further accelerate our scale to compete

▪ Benefit from exchange of best practices between two reference players operating in markets with high levels of similarities

▪ Serve increasingly international clients with a focus on neighbouring countries with largest cross-border business

▪ Gain a size that allows to build and maintain independence in a rapidly changing & consolidating international market, while “keeping our future in our hands” in the spirit of a merger of equals

▪ Continue to provide employees with strong & sustainable working conditions, social plans and pension arrangements based on our culture and solid values

▪ Create a sustainable and stronger investment proposition through sustainable earnings and dividend accretion

▪ Strengthen currently complementary balance sheet structures

Page 29: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

An enhanced offer on 6 elements Sequence of events

Break-down of merger talksMay 29

Press leak on bpost preparing a new offer to acquire PostNL

Nov 1

Press release from bpostconfirming exploration of a possible friendly approach, and acknowledgment of PostNL

Nov 2

Improved friendly proposal from bpost to PostNL for a combination of both companies

Nov 6

PostNL declined offer from bpostNov 11

Key terms of our offer to PostNL,and sequence of events

JanDiscussion started with PostNL on potential deal with bpost

SafeguardingUSO

Employment

Innovationcenter

Governancestructure

Offer price

Pensionguarantee

Page 30: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

What the Combination would look like

x3,258million yearly

x33

millionyearly

x23,847FTEs5

x2,401 million yearly

x156

million yearly

x25,074 FTEs5

x5,659 million yearly

x189

million yearly

x48,921

FTE5

bpost1

EUR million (2015) PostNLEUR million (2015)

Combination2

EUR million (2015)

5,895

806

458

6,965

41%

58%

67%

70%

59%

42%

33%

30%

Revenue

EBIT

Profit for the year

Market cap3

2,434

466

3094

4,848

Revenue

EBIT

Profit for the year

Market cap3

3,461

3406

149

2,117

1 Reported numbers2 Simple pro-forma, excluding synergies or potential re-rating3 As of October 31, 2016 4 As defined by IFRS consolidated net profit5 Year average 6 As defined by operating income

Page 31: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

The combination would represent the 4th largest postal operator in the EU in terms of revenue and 3rd in terms of EBITRelative size versus listed EU Peers123, 2015 figures in EUR million

EBIT

59,230

4,2835

12,7794

23,045

5,895

2,6056 89

110

874

4764

806

2,411

1 Simple pro-forma, excluding synergies or potential re-rating 2 Excluding Poste Italiane, for which 87% of the revenue comes from financial services 3 Includes all activities of the postal operators, incl. financial services 4 Using a GBP to EUR exchange rate of 1,356 on Dec 31 2015 5 Using a SEK to EUR exchange rate of 9.187 on Dec 31 2015; EBIT defined as operating income6 Using a 0.1039 NOK to EUR exchange rate on Dec 31 2015

Page 32: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Bpost/media/Files/B/Bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing 5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct

we are mail we grow we are lean, agile & flexible

we are @ core

Focused strategy and clear choices