cmd antwerp 15 november 2016 - bpost/media/files/b/bpost/capital... · 2016-11-15 · 4 includes...
TRANSCRIPT
CMD Antwerp – 15 November 2016
Welcome!
Koen Van Gerven
Chief Executive Officer
8.00 pm – 9.45 pm
Visit Sorting Centre
3:10 pm – 3.30 pm
Break6.00 pm – 7.15 pm
Drink & Dinner
1.00 pm – 3:10 pm
Part 1 and Q&A3.30 pm – 5.40 pm
Part 2 and Q&A
Agenda of today
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CMD Antwerp – 15 November 2016
We are a leading postal operator building on strong foundations
Leading market position in the resilient Belgian mail market with a balanced regulatory framework
Focused mail and parcels business with a proven strategy for profitable growth
Scope for continued cost improvements
Strong financial performance supporting a high level of cash flow generation and dividends
Proven performance track record
494480
436404
359
319
240222
183160
82
37
-69
1105 1008 09 12 140706
+20% p.a.
201513042003
-3.5Normalized EBIT margin, Percent
1.7 3.9 7.2 8.0 9.8 10.7 13.8 15.2 16.7 18.0 19.5 20.5
Transformation journey has resulted in a strong financial performance …Normalized1 EBIT, EUR million
1 Excluding non-recurring items
... While undergoing structural ownership changes and gradual privatization
2003
Ambitiousmodernization plan is launched
2006
State share drops to ~50% while Post Danmark and CVC take a joint
49.99% shareholding
Modern corporate governance structure & discipline reflects international shareholdership
2009
Post Danmark leaves the consortium, leaving
CVC as the sole private shareholder
2013
bpost becomes a listed company after successful IPO
Further internationalization of shareholder base
Level-playing field with other listed companies
2015
Modernization of the 1991 Law for autonomous
public companies
Adoption of corporate governance charter to reinforce state-of-the-art
governance
2016
At least 1.29
2015
+2% p.a.
+12% p.a.
2014
1.26
2013
1.13
1.29
Since the IPO in 2013 this translated into increasing dividends EUR
we are mail we grow we are lean, agile & flexible
we are @ core
Our strategy is simple and focused
We made clear choices to drive value creation & reward shareholders
Remain relevant for all stakeholders (e.g., loyal customers, passionate employees, rewarded shareholders)
Deliver operational excellence (e.g., culture of
continuous improvements, Vision 2020), in a context of
powerful natural attrition lever
Provide ongoing and relentless support to mail
as an effective communication medium
Support organic growth and external growth in domestic and international parcels (B2C eCommerce and B2B), proximity and convenience services
We are mail
We are lean, agile & flexible
We grow
We are @ core
We have continued to deliver on this strategy in 2016
High employee commitment High customer satisfaction
(quality improvement) New Collective Labor Agreement
FTE savings in line with guidance
Sorting center expansion completed in time and within initial budget
Overhead cost reduction program completed
Mail volume decline in line with 2016 guidance of -5% (strong performance of advertising mail)
Management contract and press distribution approved until end of 2020
USO provider until end of 2018
Double digit (15.2%1) profitable growth in domestic parcels
Sustained international expansion Acquisitions and partnerships, incl.
expanded proximity & convenience retail (Lagardère Travel Retail) and innovative parcel delivery solutions (Parcify, de Buren)
Increased revenue from new solutions
We are mail
We are lean, agile & flexible
We grow
We are @ core
1 +14.5% when excluding calendar effects
46
82
142
146
182
193
215
216
223
259
NL
UK
DE
IT
DK
BE
SW
FR
AU
CH
-11.5
-9.2
-9.1
-5.0
-4.7
-3.9
-3.4
-3.0
-3.0
-2.0
BE
SW
FR
CH
DE
UK
AU
DK
IT
NL
2
8
2
2
4
2008-15 CAGR for addressed mail volumesAs reported by major incumbent EU postal operators, percent
Addressed mail volume per capita 2015Operator level1
We benefit from a relatively resilient mail market vs. other countries
6
SOURCE: Annual reports; Investor presentations; IPC; Eurostat
3
7
2
5
2
8
2
2
4
9
3
2
2
5
Note: definition of addressed mail may differ by operator1 Excludes domestic competitors2 Includes addressed mail3 Includes inland addressed mail, limited to 20144 Includes mail communication and dialogue marketing5 Includes letter mail and addressed direct mail / media post
6 Includes addressed mail excluding press7 Includes all mail8 Includes addressed mail (publishers
services excl.), limited to 20149 Includes all domestic mail
Mail volume evolution, underlying
Percent
-4.5
-5.0
2016 guidance
~-5.0
2016 Q3 YTD actualsFY2015 actuals
2016 YTD mail volume decline is lower than last year and in line with guidance
Mail volume evolution, underlying
Percent
-7.4
-4.8-5.3-4.7-5.9-5.3-5.3
-4.2-4.7-5.9-5.3
Transactional mail
Advertising mail
Press
At the same time, mail volume decline has become increasingly volatile
-1.2-2.2
0.1
-1.2-2.4
-9.9
-5.9
-2.1-3.7-3.6
-2.7
-4.2
-0.3
-2.6-3.6
-0.1
-4.0-3.1
-2.6-2.5-2.9-3.2
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
▪ New law of December 16, 2015 creating a level playing field for listed public companies in Belgium
▪ Tendering process reconfirmed bpost as operator until end of 2020
▪ bpost designated by law as the USOprovider until end of 2018
▪ USO pricing regulated by price cap formula
▪ 6th Management Contract has been confirmed until end of 2020
▪ Compensation methodology validated by EC to ensure no over-compensation
Reconfirmed balanced regulatory framework
Press tendering
BE regulation
UniversalService
Obligation(USO)
6th
ManagementContract
SGEIs are compensated following strict guidelines set by EU while USO delivery is not compensated
Net avoided cost of each SGEI, i.e., the difference in bpost’s profit in the as-is situation (under the constraints of the 6th MC) and bpost’s profit in the situation in which it would not be subject to those constraints
Compensation includes an incentive for efficiency gains realized over the duration of the 6th MC provided a number of quality criteria are met
Yearly compensation is capped, i.e., if the sum of the net avoided costs and the efficiency gains in a given year is higher than the cap foreseen in the 6th
MC, the State will be able to recover the excess compensation for that year
No compensation for USO delivery
Net avoided cost
Financial incentives
Compensation cap
1 +14.5% when excluding calendar effects
Continued double digit growth in parcels, further supported by acquisitions, partnerships and innovative new ventures
Domestic parcelsVolume, percent growth
International parcelsEUR mln
Acquisitions, partnerships and innovative new ventures
7.0%7.1%
1.1%
2016 Q3 YTD
15.2%1
12.6%
15142012 13
125
170
143
92
115
2011 12 1413 15 2016 Q3 YTD
+140.3% p.a.
In line with guidance In line with guidance
Development of Lagardère Travel Retail’s Belgian activities in line with bpost’s strategy
Operate distribution platform of newspapers and periodicals to proximity stores all over the country
Ambition to grow margin to 5-6% (from 3.3%)
Ambition to generate cost synergies of €4-5m p.a.Strong strategic fit
Diversify into growing retail proximity & convenience distribution (+4 to 6% CAGR 2015-20)
Further enable domestic parcels growth strategy by increasing network coverage to over 1,900 points
Productivity improvement of 800-1,200 FTEs in the past, 2016 guidance at the lower end of the rangeNumber of FTEs & interims (average)
FTE evolution
24,70325,41426,32927,411
28,78630,023
2010
-4% p.a.
14 2015131211
2016 guidance
2016 guidance “Lower end” of the range
Low range (-800 FTE)
High range (-1,200 FTE)
Productivity improvement 2016 YTD in line with guidance, adjusted for Deltamedia integrationNumber of FTEs and interims (average)
300
2016 FY guidance productivity
improvement
-800
FY impact of Deltamedia integration
2016 Q3 YTD actual productivity
improvement1
-486
2016 FY guidance net of Deltamedia
-500
1 Excluding M&A and additional FTEs for parcels volume above guidance
Besides productivity gains, change in mix continues to contribute to labor cost control
69%
46%
31%
25%
29%
Statutories
Auxiliarypostmen
Q3 2016
Baremiccontractuals
2009
0%
bpost contract types1
Average number of FTEs, %
1 Average number of FTEs excluding students, interims, non-baremic contractualsand subsidiaries
100
~70
~90
-30%
Average cost per contract typeIndexed on statutory employee cost
FTE evolution going forward will combine the current discipline with upside from expansionNumber of FTEs
FTE current
Upsidefrom chosenexpansion
Base asplanned
Efficiency gains
Inorganic growth
Organic growth
Total
2016 key achievements Key milestones in 2017
Re-routing of mail and parcel flows
16 mixed sorting machines (MSM) installed
Opening of new BX IMCExtension of 4 sorting centres completed on time and within initial budget
Double parcel sorting capacity
New Brussels X IMC on its way
180 m
13
0 m
4 infeed areas
140 indirect chutes
400 direct chutes
2 crossbelt sorters2 x 528 m
We have delivered on Vision 2020 implementation, to be continued in 2017
Description
In addition, toolbox of measures for management to trigger in case of acceleration of mail volume decline (e.g., different distribution
setup, further overhead cost savings, pricing lever)
We have a pipeline of cost initiatives for 2017 and beyond NOT EXHAUSTIVE
MSO continuous improvement initiatives on top of Vision 2020
▪ Redefine collect organizations with central support and dedicated tools
▪ Share best practice between IMCs to improve Preparation productivity
▪ Continuously review “penetration rate” in distribution to reshape organization accordingly
Additional cost
initiatives
Vision 2020 ▪ Further automation of preparation in Industrial Mail Centers
▪ Centralization of mailbag preparation
▪ Further reduction of distribution offices (~450 at start of program) to ~60 mail centres
▪ Increased efficiency in parcels sorting
Non-MSO1
initiatives ▪ Improvement initiatives beyond MSO in ICT (e.g., development of Agile
Ops), central support functions, retail network (e.g., call center optimization), procurement, Parcels & International (e.g., synergies between BUs)
Cost initiatives launched
in 2017
1 Mail Service Operations
Improved quality and customer satisfactionCustomer satisfaction1, %
Committed to pay annual dividend of minimum 85% of BGAAP net profit
Focused on environmental impact through implementation of CO2 reduction programs
Committed and caring employer focused on well-being of employees
1st
on the IPCEnviron-mental Ranking
2013
88
85
2015
0.93 1.05
0.20
1.131.29
0.24
20152013
Interim gross DPS (€)Final gross DPS (€)
1 “Satisfied customers” (score of 5 or above on a scale from 1 to 7 on the question: “Overall, how satisfied are you about bpost?”) based on bpost commissioned survey by Ipsos-Synovate
bpost is committed to keep all stakeholders on board
There is a compelling rationale for a combination with PostNL
Compelling industrial and
strategic rationale
Substantial value creation
Safeguard all stakeholders’
interests
▪ Maintain commitment to affordable, sustainable, solid and reliable “universal and public services” in both countries, respective USO and broader public services
▪ Combine forces to be better equipped to combat declining mail volumes together
▪ Become a leading player in the parcel business; an area in which we are growing and which is of strong importance for us but where we seek to further accelerate our scale to compete
▪ Benefit from exchange of best practices between two reference players operating in markets with high levels of similarities
▪ Serve increasingly international clients with a focus on neighbouring countries with largest cross-border business
▪ Gain a size that allows to build and maintain independence in a rapidly changing & consolidating international market, while “keeping our future in our hands” in the spirit of a merger of equals
▪ Continue to provide employees with strong & sustainable working conditions, social plans and pension arrangements based on our culture and solid values
▪ Create a sustainable and stronger investment proposition through sustainable earnings and dividend accretion
▪ Strengthen currently complementary balance sheet structures
An enhanced offer on 6 elements Sequence of events
Break-down of merger talksMay 29
Press leak on bpost preparing a new offer to acquire PostNL
Nov 1
Press release from bpostconfirming exploration of a possible friendly approach, and acknowledgment of PostNL
Nov 2
Improved friendly proposal from bpost to PostNL for a combination of both companies
Nov 6
PostNL declined offer from bpostNov 11
Key terms of our offer to PostNL,and sequence of events
JanDiscussion started with PostNL on potential deal with bpost
SafeguardingUSO
Employment
Innovationcenter
Governancestructure
Offer price
Pensionguarantee
What the Combination would look like
x3,258million yearly
x33
millionyearly
x23,847FTEs5
x2,401 million yearly
x156
million yearly
x25,074 FTEs5
x5,659 million yearly
x189
million yearly
x48,921
FTE5
bpost1
EUR million (2015) PostNLEUR million (2015)
Combination2
EUR million (2015)
5,895
806
458
6,965
41%
58%
67%
70%
59%
42%
33%
30%
Revenue
EBIT
Profit for the year
Market cap3
2,434
466
3094
4,848
Revenue
EBIT
Profit for the year
Market cap3
3,461
3406
149
2,117
1 Reported numbers2 Simple pro-forma, excluding synergies or potential re-rating3 As of October 31, 2016 4 As defined by IFRS consolidated net profit5 Year average 6 As defined by operating income
The combination would represent the 4th largest postal operator in the EU in terms of revenue and 3rd in terms of EBITRelative size versus listed EU Peers123, 2015 figures in EUR million
EBIT
59,230
4,2835
12,7794
23,045
5,895
2,6056 89
110
874
4764
806
2,411
1 Simple pro-forma, excluding synergies or potential re-rating 2 Excluding Poste Italiane, for which 87% of the revenue comes from financial services 3 Includes all activities of the postal operators, incl. financial services 4 Using a GBP to EUR exchange rate of 1,356 on Dec 31 2015 5 Using a SEK to EUR exchange rate of 9.187 on Dec 31 2015; EBIT defined as operating income6 Using a 0.1039 NOK to EUR exchange rate on Dec 31 2015
we are mail we grow we are lean, agile & flexible
we are @ core
Focused strategy and clear choices