clyde ecosystem review

123
SCOTTISH MARINE AND FRESHWATER SCIENCE VOLUME 3 NUMBER 3 Clyde Ecosystem Review F McIntyre, P G Fernandes and W R Turrell

Upload: others

Post on 11-Sep-2021

6 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Clyde Ecosystem Review

SCOTTISH MARINE AND FRESHWATER SCIENCE VOLUME 3

NUMBER 3

Clyde Ecosystem Review

F McIntyre, P G Fernandes and W R Turrell

Page 2: Clyde Ecosystem Review

The Scottish Government, Edinburgh 2012

Scottish Marine and Freshwater Science Report Volume 3 Number 3

Clyde Ecosystem Review

McIntyre, F., Fernandes, P.G. and W. R. Turrell

Page 3: Clyde Ecosystem Review

© Crown copyright 2012

You may re-use this information (excluding logos and images) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ or e-mail: [email protected].

Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.

This document is available from our website at www.scotland.gov.uk.

ISBN: 978-1-78045-877-9 (web only)

ISSN: 2043-7722

The Scottish GovernmentSt Andrew’s HouseEdinburghEH1 3DG

Produced for the Scottish Government by APS Group ScotlandDPPAS13075 (06/12)

Published by the Scottish Government, June 2012

Marine Scotland is the directorate of the Scottish Government responsible for the integrated management of Scotland’s seas. Marine Scotland Science �IRUPHUO\�)LVKHULHV�5HVHDUFK�6HUYLFHV��SURYLGHV�H[SHUW�VFLHQWL¿F�DQG�WHFKQLFDO�DGYLFH�RQ�PDULQH�DQG�¿VKHULHV�LVVXHV��Scottish Marine and Freshwater Science LV�D�VHULHV�RI�UHSRUWV�WKDW�SXEOLVK�UHVXOWV�RI�UHVHDUFK�DQG�PRQLWRULQJ�FDUULHG�RXW�E\�0DULQH�6FRWODQG�6FLHQFH��7KHVH�UHSRUWV�DUH�QRW�VXEMHFW�WR�IRUPDO�H[WHUQDO�peer-review.

Page 4: Clyde Ecosystem Review

��

&/<'(�(&26<67(0�5(9,(:���

0F,QW\UH��)���)HUQDQGHV��3�*��DQG�:��5��7XUUHOO������&RQWHQWV���� 0B(;(&87,9(�6800$5<�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� ,QWURGXFWLRQ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� /LWHUDWXUH�5HYLHZ���(QYLURQPHQW�������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� /LWHUDWXUH�5HYLHZ���%LRGLYHUVLW\���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� /LWHUDWXUH�5HYLHZ�±�1RQ�)LVKLQJ�+XPDQ�,PSDFWV������������������������������������������������������ ��� /LWHUDWXUH�5HYLHZ����)LVKLQJ��3HODJLF�DQG�6KHOILVK����������������������������������������������������� ��� +HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� $�0DQDJHPHQW�'DWD�7RRO����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 6XJJHVWLRQV�IRU�)XWXUH�:RUN������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� &O\GH�+\GURG\QDPLF�0RGHO������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� &O\GH�(FRV\VWHP�0RGHO������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� &O\GH�,QVKRUH�%HQWKLF�6XUYH\���������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� &O\GH�±�DQ�06)'�'HYHORSPHQW�$UHD"�������������������������������������������������������������� ����� &O\GH�3HODJLF�)LVK�6WRFN�$FRXVWLF�6XUYH\��������������������������������������������������������� ����� &O\GH�'HPHUVDO�)LVK�6XUYH\������������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� ,PSURYLQJ�WKH�&O\GH�0DQDJHPHQW�(YDOXDWLRQ�0RGHO�����������������������������������������

�� 1B,1752'8&7,21������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� $Q�(FRORJLFDO�'HVHUW���7KXUVWRQ�DQG�5REHUWV������������������������������������������������ ����� $�&KDQJHG�(FRV\VWHP���+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV���������������������������������������������������� ����� 7KLV�5HSRUW��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

�� 2B7+(�(19,5210(17�2)�7+(�&/<'(�6($�������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 11B'HILQLWLRQ�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� *HRORJLFDO�+LVWRU\�RI�WKH�&O\GH��������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� %DWK\PHWU\�DQG�6HGLPHQWRORJ\�������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 13B+\GURJUDSK\������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 42B$Q�$QQXDO�&\FOH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH����������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 43B:DUPLQJ�6HD�7HPSHUDWXUHV������������������������������������������������������������������������������

��� 14B3ODQNWRQ�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 44B3K\WRSODQNWRQ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 45B=RRSODQNWRQ�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

��� &RQFOXGLQJ�5HPDUNV������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 6XJJHVWLRQV�IRU�)XUWKHU�:RUN�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������

�� 3B%,2',9(56,7<���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 15B%DFNJURXQG�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� %HQWKLF�)DXQD����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 17B0DHUO�EHGV���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 18B6HDELUGV������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 19B0HJDIDXQD���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 20B7KUHDWV�WR�%LRGLYHUVLW\���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 46B,QYDVLYH�VSHFLHV������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� 47B&OLPDWH�FKDQJH��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

��� 21B3URWHFWLRQ�RI�%LRGLYHUVLW\������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 6XJJHVWLRQ�IRU�)XUWKHU�:RUN�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

�� 4B+80$1�,03$&76��27+(5�7+$1�),6+,1*������������������������������������������������������������������ ��� 22B%DFNJURXQG�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 23B$VVHVVPHQW�RI�3ROOXWLRQ�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 24B0DULQH�/LWWHU�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 25B6KLSSLQJ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

Page 5: Clyde Ecosystem Review

��

��� 26B�$TXDFXOWXUH�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 6FRWODQG¶V�0DULQH�$WODV�±�2YHUDOO�$VVHVVPHQW��������������������������������������������������������� ����� $FWLYLWLHV�DQG�3UHVVXUHV������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� &OHDQ�DQG�6DIH�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� +HDOWK\�DQG�%LRORJLFDOO\�'LYHUVH������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� 5HVSRQVH���)RUZDUG�/RRN����������������������������������������������������������������������������������

��� &RQFOXGLQJ�5HPDUN�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� �� 5B+80$1�,03$&76���),6+(5,(6������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 27B,QWURGXFWLRQ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 28B/HJLVODWLRQ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 29B6WRFN�$VVHVVPHQW���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 30B3HODJLF�)LVKHULHV������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� 48B+HUULQJ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

��� 31B'HPHUVDO�)LVKHULHV��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 49B&RG�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 50B+DNH������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� 51B6DLWKH����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

��� 32B6KHOOILVK�ILVKHULHV������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� 52B1HSKURSV����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 53B6FDOORSV������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 54B2WKHU�6KHOOILVK���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

��� 33B6HD�$QJOLQJ�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 34B(QYLURQPHQWDO�(IIHFWV�RI�)LVKLQJ������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 55B7UDZOLQJ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 56B'UHGJLQJ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� 57B'LVFDUGV�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

��� 6XJJHVWLRQ�IRU�IXUWKHU�ZRUN��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� �� 6B�7+(�&855(17�67$786�2)�7+(�&/<'(�'(0(56$/�),6+�&20081,7<���������������� ��� 6XPPDU\�RI�'HPHUVDO�&O\GH�/DQGLQJV��������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� $�&OLPDWLF�(IIHFW�"����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� /LPLWDWLRQV�RI�/DQGLQJV�'DWD������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 5HVHDUFK�9HVVHO�6XUYH\�'DWD���������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� &RQVWUXFWLQJ�WKH�7LPH�6HULHV����������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 7KH�%DVLF�)LVK�'DWD������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� 'HPHUVDO�)LVK�±�&KDQJHV�LQ�%LRPDVV��������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 7KH�0L[�RI�'HPHUVDO�)LVK�6SHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�������������������������������������������������

��� &RQFOXGLQJ�5HPDUNV������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 6XJJHVWLRQV�IRU�)XUWKHU�:RUN�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������

�� 7B(&26<67(0�&203$5,6216��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 35B%ODFN�6HD����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 36B*XOI�RI�6W�/DZUHQFH�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 37B0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

�� 8B&/<'(�0$1$*(0(17�(9$/8$7,21�02'(/��&0(0������������������������������������������������ ��� 38B,QWURGXFWLRQ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ��� 39B0HWKRGRORJ\�DQG�0RGHO�'DWD�/D\HUV������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� 58B&UHDWH�JULG��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 59B0DVNV���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 60B%DWK\PHWU\�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 61B$UHDV�DQG�9ROXPHV������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 62B+DELWDW�7\SH������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� 63B)LVKLQJ�$FWLYLW\�'DWD��906��������������������������������������������������������������������������������

��� 40B5HVXOWV���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� %DWK\PHWU\�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 'HSWK�'LVWULEXWLRQ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 6SDWLDO�/LPLW�0DVNV��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

Page 6: Clyde Ecosystem Review

��

����� $UHDV�DQG�9ROXPHV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6SDWLDO�'RPDLQV��������������������������������������������� ����� 6HGLPHQW�'LVWULEXWLRQ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 67B)LVKLQJ�$FWLYLW\�±�5DZ�906������������������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� )LVKLQJ�$FWLYLW\�±�,QWHUSRODWHG�0DSV������������������������������������������������������������������ ����� &RQFOXGLQJ�5HPDUNV����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ����� 6XJJHVWHG�)XUWKHU�:RUN�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������

��� %LEOLRJUDSK\���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ������ 3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK�%��9ROXPH�������������������������

��� $QQH[�±�6SHFLHV�OLVW�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�IURP�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV���������������������������������������

Page 7: Clyde Ecosystem Review

��

���� 0B(;(&87,9(�6800$5<��

���� ,QWURGXFWLRQ��,Q�-XO\������D�VFLHQWLILF�SDSHU�DXWKRUHG�E\�UHVHDUFKHUV�IURP�<RUN�8QLYHUVLW\�ZDV�SXEOLVKHG��HQWLWOHG�³(FRORJLFDO�0HOWGRZQ�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��6FRWODQG��7ZR�&HQWXULHV�RI�&KDQJH�LQ�D�&RDVWDO�0DULQH�(FRV\VWHP´��7KXUVWRQ�DQG�5REHUWV����������7KLV�VWLPXODWHG�LPPHGLDWH�PHGLD�LQWHUHVW��*ODVJRZ�+HUDOG�DQG�6XQGD\�7LPHV�DUWLFOHV��5DGLR���OLYH��DQG�D�%%&�3DQRUDPD�SURJUDPPH�LQ�$XJXVW���6XEVHTXHQWO\��0DULQH�6FRWODQG�6FLHQFH��066��FRPPHQFHG�ZRUN�ZKLFK�OHG�WR�WKLV�UHYLHZ�RI�WKH�&O\GH�(FRV\VWHP���,QGHSHQGHQWO\�IURP�WKH�SURFHVV�XQGHUZD\�ZLWKLQ�0DULQH�6FRWODQG��WKH�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�6WUDWKFO\GH�DOVR�FRPPHQFHG�ZRUN�RQ�WKH�LVVXH�RI�WKH�HFRORJLFDO�VWDWXV�RI�WKH�&O\GH���:KLOH�7KXUVWRQ�DQG�5REHUWV��������UHOLHG�HQWLUHO\�RQ�ODQGLQJV�GDWD��WKH�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�6WUDWKFO\GH�VWXG\�XVHG�UHVHDUFK�YHVVHO�VXUYH\�GDWD�REWDLQHG�IURP�066���$V�D�UHVXOW�RI�D�GHWDLOHG�DQG�ZHOO�IRXQG�DQDO\VLV��LQ�-XO\������3URIHVVRU�+HDWK�SXEOLVKHG�D�GHILQLWLYH�DQDO\VLV�RI�WKH�SUHVHQW�VWDWH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\�LQ�KLV�SDSHU��ZLWK�'U�'RXJ�6SHLUV��HQWLWOHG�³&KDQJHV�LQ�VSHFLHV�GLYHUVLW\�DQG�VL]H�FRPSRVLWLRQ�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\������������´��+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV����������7KH�FRQFOXVLRQV�RI�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV��������SRLQW�WR�D�PDMRU�HFRORJLFDO�LPSDFW�RI�ILVKLQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH���+RZHYHU��WKH�SLFWXUH�SRUWUD\HG�E\�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV�LV�QRW�RQH�RI�DQ�HFRORJLFDO�GHVHUW��EXW�RI�DQ�DOWHUHG�HFRV\VWHP��7KHLU�SULQFLSDO�FRQFOXVLRQV�ZHUH���

��UDWKHU�WKDQ�FRPPHUFLDO�VSHFLHV�EHLQJ�HQWLUHO\�UHPRYHG�IURP�WKH�&O\GH��WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�WKH�VL[�PDLQ�FRPPHUFLDO�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�ODWH�����V�ZDV�DSSUR[LPDWHO\�GRXEOH�WKDW�SULRU�WR�WKH�RQVHW�RI�WUDZOLQJ�LQ�WKH�����V�����KRZHYHU��WKH�VL]H�VWUXFWXUHV�RI�WKHVH�VSHFLHV�ZHUH�GUDPDWLFDOO\�GLIIHUHQW��EHLQJ�PDUNHGO\�GHILFLHQW�LQ�ODUJH�FRPPHUFLDOO\�PDUNHWDEOH�LQGLYLGXDOV�DIWHU�WKH�SHULRG�RI�SHDN�KDUYHVWLQJ�UDWHV�LQ�WKH�����V����DOVR�WKH�LQFLGHQFH�RI�VSHFLHV�ZLWK�D�PD[LPXP�DWWDLQDEOH�OHQJWK�JUHDWHU�WKDQ����FP�GHFOLQHG�SUHFLSLWRXVO\�DQG�GLG�QRW�UHFRYHU�GXULQJ�WKH�SHULRG�RI�ORZ�KDUYHVWLQJ�UDWHV�DIWHU�WKH�ODWH�����V�SRVVLEO\�RZLQJ�WR�LQWHUQDO�SUHGDWRU±SUH\�LQWHUDFWLRQV��

�7KLV�PHDQV�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�VWLOO�IXQFWLRQV�DV�DQ�HFRV\VWHP��3ULPDU\�SURGXFWLRQ�VWLOO�RFFXUV��SRZHUHG�E\�WKH�VXQ�DQG�VXSSOLHG�E\�ZDWHU�ERUQH�QXWULHQWV��ZKLFK�VXVWDLQV�VHFRQGDU\�]RRSODQNWRQ�SURGXFWLRQ��ZKLFK�LQ�WXUQ�IHHGV�DQ�DFWLYH�IRRG�ZHE��7KH�&O\GH�LV�QRW�DQ�HFRORJLFDO�GHVHUW���+RZHYHU��WKH�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP�KDV�EHHQ�FKDQJHG��7KH�ELRPDVV�RI�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�WKH�VDPH��RU�IRU�VRPH�VSHFLHV�PRUH��WKDQ�ZKHQ�LQWHQVLYH�ILVKLQJ�VWDUWHG���$GGLWLRQDOO\��D�ODUJH�DQG�KHDOWK\�SRSXODWLRQ�RI�VKHOOILVK��1HSKURSV��OLYLQJ�RQ�WKH�VHD�EHG�RI�WKH�&O\GH�LV�SUHVHQW��

Page 8: Clyde Ecosystem Review

��

�+RZHYHU��WKH�FRPPXQLW\�RI�ILVK�LV�QRZ�PDGH�XS�PRVWO\�RI�VPDOO�ILVK��DQG�PRVWO\�VPDOO�ZKLWLQJ���,I�ZH�ZHUH�WR�VHHN�D�WHUUHVWULDO�DQDORJ\�LW�ZRXOG�QRW�EH�WKDW�RI�D�GHVHUW��5DWKHU�LW�PLJKW�EH�WKDW�RI�XVHG�DJULFXOWXUDO�ODQG�LQ�QHHG�RI�UHVWRUDWLRQ��&RPSDULQJ�WKH�&O\GH�WR�DQ�HFRV\VWHP�PRGLILHG�E\�KXPDQ�XVH�\HW�FDSDEOH�RI�UHVWRUDWLRQ�SRUWUD\V�D�PXFK�OHVV�QHZV�ZRUWK\�LPDJH�WKDQ�DQ�HFRORJLFDO�GHVHUW���7KH�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP�LV�RQH�WKDW�KDV�EHHQ�XVHG�E\�KXPDQV�IRU�FHQWXULHV��DQG�KHQFH�LW�LV�FKDQJHG��%XW�KXPDQV�FDQ�DOVR�QRZ�LQIOXHQFH�WKH�GLUHFWLRQ�WKH�HFRV\VWHP�WDNHV�E\�PDQDJLQJ�KXPDQ�DFWLYLWLHV�LQ�WKH�IXWXUH��SUHFLVHO\�EHFDXVH�WKH�&O\GH�LV�QRW�DQ�HFRORJLFDO�GHVHUW��EXW�LV�DQ�DFWLYH�HFRV\VWHP�ZLWK�JUHDW�SRWHQWLDO�IRU�IXWXUH�VXVWDLQDEOH�XVH���,Q�VRPH�UHVSHFWV�WKLV�UHSRUW�PDUNV�WKH�VWDUW�RI�D�SURFHVV��UDWKHU�WKDQ�WKH�FRQFOXVLRQ�RI�RQH��,W�SRVHV�PRUH�TXHVWLRQV�WKDQ�LW�DQVZHUV��DQG�SUHVHQWV�SUHOLPLQDU\�DQDO\VLV�RI�D�QHZ�GDWD�VHW�WKDW�UHTXLUHV�IXUWKHU�YDOLGDWLRQ��FKHFNLQJ�DQG�H[SDQVLRQ���+RZHYHU��LW�SURYLGHV�D�VWDUW�SRLQW�IURP�ZKLFK�JRYHUQPHQW�DQG�VWDNHKROGHUV�FRQFHUQHG�ZLWK�WKH�IXWXUH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�FDQ�EXLOG�XSRQ�DQG�SURJUHVV��,W�SXWV�LQWR�FRQWH[W�VRPH�VHFRQGDU\�LVVXHV�ZKLFK�PD\�FORXG�WKH�SULPDU\�IRFXV�RI�IXWXUH�ZRUN�WR�UHFRYHU�WKH�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP��KRZ�ZH�PDQDJH�ILVKHULHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH���7KH�UHSRUW�ZKLFK�IROORZV�KDV�WKH�IROORZLQJ�REMHFWLYHV���

��7R�SUHVHQW�D�EULHI�UHYLHZ�RI�SUHYLRXVO\�SXEOLVKHG�LQIRUPDWLRQ�DQG�NQRZOHGJH�FRQFHUQLQJ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP�����7R�SUHVHQW�WKH�ILQGLQJV�RI�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV��������LQ�D�IRUPDW�DFFHVVLEOH�WR�VWDNHKROGHUV�DQG�PDQDJHUV�����7R�SURSRVH�D�GDWD�WRRO�ZKLFK�PD\�KHOS�LQIRUP�IXWXUH�PDQDJHPHQW�RSWLRQV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�����7R�PDNH�VXJJHVWLRQV�IRU�IXUWKHU�VWXGLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�UHTXLUHG�LQ�RUGHU�WR�VXSSRUW�VXVWDLQDEOH�XVH�RI�WKLV�DFWLYH�6FRWWLVK�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHP���

���� /LWHUDWXUH�5HYLHZ���(QYLURQPHQW��7KH�&O\GH�6HD�SUHVHQWV�WKH�RYHUDOO�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�RI�D�VHPL�HQFORVHG�IMRUGLF�EDVLQ��UHFHLYLQJ�IUHVKZDWHU�LQSXWV�IURP�WKH�ODQG�DQG�KDYLQJ�SDUWLDO�H[FKDQJH�ZLWK�WKH�ZDWHUV�RQ�WKH�DGMDFHQW�FRDVWDO�VKHOI�DW�LWV�PRXWK���7KH�VHD�EHG�SK\VLFDO�KDELWDWV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�DUH�GRPLQDWHG�E\�WKH�ORFDO�GHSWK��WKH�ORFDO�VHGLPHQW�W\SH�DQG�WKH�ORFDO�WLGDO�FXUUHQWV�DQG�ZDYH�DFWLRQ��7KH�SUHGRPLQDQW�VKDSH�DQG�EDWK\PHWU\�RI�WKH�&O\GH�EDVLQ��DQG�WKH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�WKH�SULQFLSDO�VHD�EHG�W\SHV��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�JUDYHOV��VDQGV�DQG�PXGV��KDYH�EHHQ�OLWWOH�FKDQJHG�VLQFH�WKH�HQG�RI�WKH�ODVW�JODFLDO�SHULRG��LFH�DJH����7KH�EDVLV�RI�WKH�PDULQH�IRRG�ZHE�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��L�H��WKH�DQQXDO�F\FOH�RI�SODQW��SK\WRSODQNWRQ��JURZWK��IHG�E\�ZDWHU�ERUQH�QXWULHQWV��DQG�WKH�VXEVHTXHQW�IHHGLQJ�DQG�JURZWK�RI�PLFURVFRSLF�DQLPDOV��]RRSODQNWRQ���DSSHDUV�KHDOWK\�DQG�SURGXFWLYH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH���

Page 9: Clyde Ecosystem Review

��

)URP�ODUJH�VFDOH�REVHUYDWLRQV��WKHUH�DUH�QR�REYLRXV�VLJQV�RI�QHJDWLYH�HIIHFWV�RQ�WKH�IRRG�ZHE�RI�SROOXWLRQ��QXWULHQW�HQULFKPHQW�RU�DQ\�RWKHU�PDQ�PDGH�VRXUFH�RI�FRQWDPLQDWLRQ��7KLV�GRHV�QRW�SUHFOXGH�WKH�SRVVLELOLW\�RI�VPDOO�VFDOH�ORFDO�HIIHFWV���$OWKRXJK�WKH�ZDWHUV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUH�ZDUPLQJ��WKLV�LV�LQ�OLQH�ZLWK�RWKHU�FRDVWDO�DUHDV�ZHVW�RI�6FRWODQG��7KHUH�LV�QR�HYLGHQFH�WKDW�WKH�ZDUPLQJ�LQ�LWVHOI�KDV�UHGXFHG�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�SURGXFWLYLW\�RI�WKH�&O\GH���

���� /LWHUDWXUH�5HYLHZ���%LRGLYHUVLW\��7KH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD�KDV�D�ZLGH�UDQJH�RI�KDELWDWV�ZKLFK�VXSSRUW�D�ODUJH�GLYHUVLW\�RI�SODQW�DQG�DQLPDO�VSHFLHV���7KHUH�LV�VRPH�FRQFHUQ�WKDW�KXPDQ�DFWLYLWLHV�PD\�KDYH�DOUHDG\�KDG�HIIHFWV�RQ�WKRVH�VSHFLHV�DQG�KDELWDWV��WKURXJK�RYHUH[SORLWDWLRQ��KDELWDW�GHVWUXFWLRQ�DQG�HQYLURQPHQWDO�FKDQJH���+LVWRULFDOO\�WKH�&O\GH�KDV�VXSSRUWHG�ODUJH�SRSXODWLRQV�RI�KHUULQJ�DQG�ZKLWHILVK��ZKLFK�KDYH�LQ�UHFHQW�\HDUV�XQGHUJRQH�D�GUDPDWLF�GHFOLQH��DQG�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVKLQJ�LV�QRZ�ODUJHO\�GHSHQGHQW�RQ�VKHOOILVK�VSHFLHV���7KH�IDXQD�RI�WKH�&O\GH�GRHV�VKRZ�VRPH�DQRPDOLHV�ZKHQ�FRPSDUHG�ZLWK�WKDW�RI�WKH�ZHVW�FRDVW��SDUWLFXODUO\�WKH�&O\GH�DOJDO�IDXQD��ZLWK�VRPH�VSHFLHV�RQO\�IRXQG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH���7KH�VHDV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�DOVR�VXSSRUW�SRSXODWLRQV�RI�PHJDIDXQD�VXFK�DV�VHDOV��GROSKLQV��ZKDOHV�DQG�EDVNLQJ�VKDUNV��0DQ\�RI�WKHVH�VSHFLHV�DQG�KDELWDWV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�DUH�UHFRJQLVHG�DV�EHLQJ�RI�QDWLRQDO�RU�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�LPSRUWDQFH�DQG�KDYH�EHHQ�DIIRUGHG�VRPH�OHYHO�RI�SURWHFWLRQ�XQGHU�OHJLVODWLRQ�WR�SURWHFW�PDULQH�ELRGLYHUVLW\���0DHUO��2QH�EHQWKLF�KDELWDW�RI�SDUWLFXODU�LQWHUHVW�DQG�FRQFHUQ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�WKDW�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�PDHUO�EHGV���0DHUO�EHGV�DUH�OLYLQJ�VHGLPHQWV�FKDUDFWHULVHG�E\�DFFXPXODWLRQV�RI�XQDWWDFKHG�FDOFDUHRXV�UHG�DOJDH��&RUDOOLQDOHV��5KRGRSK\WD���DOVR�NQRZQ�DV�UKRGROLWK�EHGV���7KH\�RFFXU�LQ�PDQ\�HQYLURQPHQWV�LQFOXGLQJ�WURSLFDO��WHPSHUDWH�DQG�SRODU�HQYLURQPHQWV��,Q�(XURSH�WKH\�DUH�SDWFKLO\�GLVWULEXWHG�RFFXUULQJ�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�DQG�DORQJ�WKH�:HVWHUQ�$WODQWLF�FRDVW���0DHUO�EHGV�DSSHDU�DV�SDWFK\��SRRUO\�VRUWHG�DQG�FRPSOH[�VHGLPHQW�WKDW�GLIIHU�JUHDWO\�IURP�PRUH�XQLIRUP�KDELWDWV�VXFK�DV�PXG��7KH�LQWHUORFNLQJ�RI�WKH�EUDQFKLQJ�WKDOOL�FUHDWHV�D�KLJKO\�FRPSOH[�KDELWDW�WKDW�SURYLGHV�QXPHURXV�PLFURKDELWDWV�IRU�PDFURIDXQDO�RUJDQLVPV��7KH\�KDYH�KLJK�HFRORJLFDO�LPSRUWDQFH�DV�WKH\�VXSSRUW�D�ZLGH�UDQJH�RI�VSHFLHV��VRPH�RI�ZKLFK�PD\�EH�XQLTXH�WR�WKLV�KDELWDW���0DHUO�EHGV�FDQ�DOVR�EH�RI�LPSRUWDQFH�WR�ILVKHULHV��SURYLGLQJ�QXUVHU\�JURXQGV�IRU�FRPPHUFLDO�VSHFLHV�RI�ILVK�DQG�VKHOOILVK���,Q�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��PDHUO�EHGV�FRLQFLGH�ZLWK�PDQ\�RI�WKH�SURGXFWLYH�ILVKLQJ�JURXQGV�IRU�VFDOORSV�DQG�LQIDXQDO�ELYDOYHV�DQG�DUH�XQGHU�WKUHDW�IURP�GUHGJLQJ�DQG�ERWWRP�WUDZOLQJ�LQ�VSLWH�RI�WKHLU�HFRORJLFDO�DQG�HFRQRPLF�LPSRUWDQFH���

Page 10: Clyde Ecosystem Review

��

0DHUO�EHGV�DUH�NQRZQ�WR�EH�KLJKO\�VHQVLWLYH�WR�SK\VLFDO�GLVWXUEDQFH�DQG�KDYH�D�YHU\�ORZ�UHJHQHUDWLYH�FDSDFLW\�DQG�WKXV�PD\�UHTXLUH�SURWHFWLRQ�WKURXJK�DSSURSULDWH�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�PDQDJHPHQW�VWUDWHJLHV���,Q�WHUPV�RI�VHD�EHG�W\SH��0DHUO�EHGV�FDQ�EH�IRXQG�LQ�DVVRFLDWLRQ�ZLWK�D�UDQJH�RI�GLIIHUHQW�VHGLPHQWV��YDU\LQJ�LQ�VL]H�IURP�ILQH�PXG�WR�FRDUVH�JUDYHO�DQG�SHEEOHV���$�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�VWXG\�RI�WKH�GHSWK�UDQJH�ZLWKLQ�ZKLFK�PDHUO�EHGV�DUH�IRXQG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�KDV�QRW�EHHQ�SHUIRUPHG��DOWKRXJK�+DOO�6SHQFHU��������VXJJHVWHG�D�UDQJH�RI�����P���$�IXUWKHU�UHTXLUHPHQW�IRU�OLYLQJ�PDHUO�LV�LQ�WHUPV�RI�FXUUHQWV�QHDU�WKH�VHD�EHG��0DHUO�UHTXLUHV�D�PRGHUDWH�IORZ�RI�ZDWHU��EXW�FDQ�QRW�ZLWKVWDQG�LQWHQVH�FXUUHQW�RU�ZDYH�DFWLRQ��7KHUHIRUH�LW�ZLOO�QRW�EH�IRXQG�LQ�HLWKHU�ZDWHU�WKDW�KDV�OLPLWHG�PRYHPHQW��RU�H[WUHPH�VHD�EHG�FXUUHQWV�IURP�HLWKHU�WLGH�RU�ZDYHV���$�FULWLFDO�IDFWRU�OLPLWLQJ�WKH�ORFDWLRQ�RI�OLYLQJ�PDHUO�LV�UHODWHG�WR�VPRWKHULQJ�E\�ILQH�VHGLPHQW��0DHUO�ZLOO�QRW�EH�IRXQG�ZKHUH�WKHUH�DUH�QDWXUDO�VRXUFHV�RI�GHSRVLWLQJ�VHGLPHQW��IRU�H[DPSOH�QHDU�ULYHU�PRXWKV�RU�ZLWKLQ�WKH�FHQWUH�RI�SHUVLVWHQW�RFHDQRJUDSKLF�J\UHV��RU�ZKHUH�WKHUH�LV�IUHTXHQW�UHVXVSHQVLRQ�RI�ILQH�VHGLPHQWV�E\�WLGH�RU�ZDYH�DFWLRQ��6HGLPHQWDWLRQ�IURP�KXPDQ�DFWLYLW\��LQFOXGLQJ�WUDZOLQJ��GUHGJLQJ��VHGLPHQW�H[WUDFWLRQ��VHZDJH�GLVFKDUJHV�RU�ILVK�IDUPLQJ�FDQ�NLOO�PDHUO���:LWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH�VWXGLHV�KDYH�IRXQG�ERWK�OLYLQJ�DQG�GHDG�PDHUO�EHGV��DV�ZHOO�DV�OLYLQJ�EXW�KHDYLO\�LPSDFWHG�PDHUO�EHGV��DIIHFWHG�E\�WKH�HIIHFWV�RI�ILVKLQJ��SULPDULO\�VFDOORS�GUHGJLQJ���6XUYH\V�IRU�PDHUO�FRXOG�LQFOXGH�WKRVH�E\�GLYHU��GLUHFW�UHPRWH�SK\VLFDO�PHWKRGV�IURP�YHVVHOV�VXFK�DV�JUDEV�RU�WRZHG�GUHGJHV��GLUHFW�YLVXDO�PHWKRGV�IURP�YHVVHOV�VXFK�DV�ORZHUHG�FDPHUDV�RU�WRZHG�YLGHR��DQG�LQGLUHFW�UHPRWH�VHQVLQJ�IURP�YHVVHOV�XVLQJ�DFRXVWLF�PHWKRGV�LQFOXGLQJ�JURXQG�GHWHUPLQDWLRQ�DFRXVWLFV��H�J��5R[$QQ����6HDELUGV��$LOVD�&UDLJ��WKH�FOLIIV�RI�WKH�$\UVKLUH�FRDVW�DQG�6DQGD�,VODQG�ORFDWHG�RII�WKH�VRXWKHDVW�FRDVW�RI�.LQW\UH��DUH�WKH�PRVW�QRWDEOH�VHDELUG�VLWHV�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH����$LOVD�&UDLJ�DQG�6DQGD�,VODQG�DUH�ERWK�GHVLJQDWHG�6LWHV�RI�6SHFLDO�6FLHQWLILF�,QWHUHVW��666,V��VHW�XS�IRU�WKH�SURWHFWLRQ�RI�WKH�EUHHGLQJ�VHDELUGV���6KDUNV�DQG�&HWDFHDQV��7KH�EDVNLQJ�VKDUN��&HWRUKLQXV�PD[LPXV��LV�WKH�ZRUOG¶V�VHFRQG�ODUJHVW�ILVK�DQG�LV�UHJXODUO\�REVHUYHG�RII�WKH�ZHVWHUQ�%ULWLVK�DQG�,ULVK�FRDVW��PRVWO\�EHWZHHQ�$SULO�DQG�2FWREHU��,W�LV�HQWLUHO\�SODQNWLYRURXV�DQG�LQ�6FRWODQG�EDVNLQJ�VKDUNV�DUH�UHJXODUO\�VLJKWHG�DURXQG�WKH�RXWHU�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�ZKHUH�ZDWHUV�DUH�SODQNWRQ�ULFK��,Q�SDUWLFXODU�WKH�FRDVWOLQH�RI�WKH�,VOH�RI�$UUDQ�LV�D�µKRWVSRW¶�IRU�EDVNLQJ�VKDUN�VLJKWLQJV���,Q�WKH�ZDWHUV�RI�WKH�&O\GH��ILIWHHQ�VSHFLHV�RI�FHWDFHDQV�KDYH�EHHQ�UHFRUGHG�VLQFH�������+RZHYHU��WKHUH�LV�D�ODFN�RI�GDWD�DYDLODEOH�RQ�WKH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�FHWDFHDQV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�ZKLFK�OLPLWV�WKH�DELOLW\�WR�GHWHUPLQH�WUHQGV�DQG�FXUUHQW�VWDWXV��$Q\�UHOLDEOH�VFLHQWLILF�GDWD�LV�UHVWULFWHG�WR�REVHUYDWLRQV�RI�GLVWULEXWLRQ�UDWKHU�WKDQ�GHWHUPLQLQJ�QXPHULFDO�DEXQGDQFH���3URWHFWHG�6LWHV��7KH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD�FRQWDLQV�D�ZLGH�UDQJH�RI�SURWHFWHG�VLWHV�RI�QDWLRQDO�DQG�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�LPSRUWDQFH�IRU�ERWK�ELRORJLFDO�DQG�RUQLWKRORJLFDO�UHDVRQV��7KHUH�DUH�WKUHH�W\SHV�RI�SURWHFWHG�

Page 11: Clyde Ecosystem Review

��

DUHDV�UHODWHG�WR�WKH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��6LWHV�RI�6SHFLDO�6FLHQWLILF�,QWHUHVW��666,���6SHFLDO�3URWHFWLRQ�$UHDV��63$��DQG�0DULQH�&RQVXOWDWLRQ�$UHDV��0&$����)XUWKHU�ZRUN�LV�SURJUHVVLQJ�XQGHU�WKH�6FRWWLVK�03$�SURMHFW��DQG�WKURXJK�61+�DQG�-1&&��LQ�RUGHU�WR�FRQVLGHU�DGGLWLRQDO�SURWHFWLRQ�PHDVXUHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH���

���� /LWHUDWXUH�5HYLHZ�±�1RQ�)LVKLQJ�+XPDQ�,PSDFWV��7KH�IROORZLQJ�LV�DGDSWHG�IURP�6FRWODQG¶V�0DULQH�$WODV��5HJLRQDO�DVVHVVPHQWV��6ROZD\��1RUWK�&KDQQHO�DQG�&O\GH��$FWLYLWLHV�DQG�3UHVVXUHV��7KH�&O\GH�KRVWV�D�ZLGH�UDQJH�RI�KXPDQ�DFWLYLWLHV�DQG�FRQVHTXHQWO\�LV�VXEMHFW�WR�D�QXPEHU�RI�SUHVVXUHV��$TXDFXOWXUH��SDUWLFXODUO\�VDOPRQ�DQG�VKHOOILVK�SURGXFWLRQ��WDNHV�SODFH�LQ�D�QXPEHU�RI�VHD�ORFKV�DQG�WKHUH�LV�ZLGHVSUHDG�ILVKLQJ��PDLQO\�IRU�1HSKURSV�DQG�VFDOORSV���7KHUH�DUH�VLJQLILFDQW�SRUWV��VKLSSLQJ�DQG�IHUU\�DFWLYLWLHV�ZLWK�����RI�6FRWWLVK�FDUJR�YROXPH�SDVVLQJ�WKURXJK�WKH�&O\GH�SRUWV��7KH�&O\GH�LV�RQH�RI�WKH�EXVLHVW�DUHDV�IRU�IHUU\�WUDIILF�ZLWK�NH\�OLQNV�WR�YDULRXV�LVODQGV�DQG�SHQLQVXODV��DV�ZHOO�DV�1RUWKHUQ�,UHODQG��DFFRXQWLQJ�IRU�a����RI�RYHUDOO�6FRWWLVK�SDVVHQJHU�WUDIILF���6FRWODQG¶V�RQO\�1DYDO�EDVH�LV�RQ�WKH�&O\GH���7KH�&O\GH�LV�SRSXODU�IRU�UHFUHDWLRQDO�VDLOLQJ��VXSSRUWLQJ�a����RI�6FRWWLVK�ERDW�EHUWKV��7KHUH�DUH�DOVR�SRSXODU�EDWKLQJ�EHDFKHV�RQ�WKH�$\UVKLUH�FRDVW����7KH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\�DQG�$\UVKLUH�FRDVW�DUH�UHODWLYHO\�XUEDQLVHG�DQG�LQGXVWULDOLVHG�FRPSDUHG�ZLWK�RWKHU�SDUWV�RI�6FRWODQG��7KLV�UHVXOWV�LQ�GLVFKDUJHV�IURP�ZDVWH�ZDWHU�WUHDWPHQW�ZRUNV�DQG�LQGXVWULDO�HIIOXHQWV�WR�HVWXDU\�DQG�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV��DV�ZHOO�DV�ZDWHU�DEVWUDFWLRQ��PDLQO\�IRU�SRZHU�JHQHUDWLRQ����3UHVVXUHV�UHVXOWLQJ�IURP�WKHVH�DFWLYLWLHV�LQFOXGH�WKH�LQWURGXFWLRQ�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�IURP�LQGXVWULDO�HIIOXHQWV�DQG�VHZDJH�ZRUNV�DQG�GXPSLQJ�RI�GUHGJH�VSRLO�IURP�KDUERXU�PDLQWHQDQFH��)LVKLQJ�XVLQJ�WUDZOV�DQG�GUHGJHV�UHVXOWV�LQ�WKH�DEUDVLRQ�RI�WKH�VHDEHG��7KHUH�DUH�DOVR�ORFDO�HIIHFWV�RI�DTXDFXOWXUH�RQ�VHDEHG�HFRORJ\��5HFUHDWLRQDO�ERDWLQJ�DQG�FRPPHUFLDO�VKLSSLQJ�DFWLYLWLHV�KDYH�SUREDEO\�OHG�WR�WKH�LQWURGXFWLRQ�RI�QRQ�QDWLYH�VSHFLHV��

�&OHDQ�DQG�6DIH��$W�WKH�DUHD�OHYHO��L�H��DOO�&O\GH�6HD��WKHUH�DUH�IHZ�FRQFHUQV�LQ�UHODWLRQ�WR�KD]DUGRXV�VXEVWDQFHV��UDGLRDFWLYLW\���RLO�DQG�FKHPLFDO�VSLOOV�DQG�DOJDO�WR[LQV���&RQWDPLQDQW�ORDGLQJV�WR�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\�DUH�ORZHU�QRZ�FRPSDUHG�WR�KLVWRULFDO�GLVFKDUJHV�EXW�D�OHJDF\�RI�ORFDOLVHG�FRQWDPLQDWHG�VHGLPHQWV�UHPDLQV��7KHVH�LQ�WXUQ�KDYH�FDXVHG�HOHYDWHG�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�LQ�PXVVHOV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\���:DWHU�TXDOLW\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\�LV�FRPSURPLVHG�E\�GLVFKDUJHV�RI�LQGXVWULDO�HIIOXHQW�DQG�WUHDWHG�VHZDJH�DOWKRXJK�HIIOXHQW�WUHDWPHQW�KDV�LPSURYHG�UHVXOWLQJ�LQ�UHWXUQLQJ�SRSXODWLRQV�RI�UHVLGHQWLDO�DQG�PLJUDWRU\�ILVK���7KH�TXDOLW\�RI�EDWKLQJ�DQG�VKHOOILVK�ZDWHUV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�LV�DIIHFWHG�E\�LQSXWV�RI�EDFWHULD�IURP�GLIIXVH�VRXUFHV��ZKLFK�LQFUHDVH�GXULQJ�SHULRGV�RI�KLJK�UDLQIDOO���

Page 12: Clyde Ecosystem Review

��

/RFDO�DFFXPXODWLRQV�RI�OLWWHU�DUH�REVHUYHG�RQ�VRPH�EHDFKHV�SRVVLEO\�EHLQJ�WUDQVSRUWHG�E\�WKH�SUHYDLOLQJ�FXUUHQWV��7KH�VRXUFH�LV�QRW�DOZD\V�SRVVLEOH�WR�LGHQWLI\���+HDOWK\�DQG�%LRORJLFDOO\�'LYHUVH�

�7KH�VWDWXV�RI�KDELWDWV�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�PL[HG��,QWHUWLGDO�KDELWDWV��URFN�DQG�VHGLPHQWV��DUH�GHWHULRUDWLQJ��,Q�UHODWLRQ�WR�URFN\�LQWHUWLGDO�KDELWDWV�WKLV�LV�GXH�WR�LQYDVLRQ�RI�QRQ�QDWLYH�VSHFLHV��LQ�SDUWLFXODU�ZLUHZHHG��6KDOORZ�VXEWLGDO�VHGLPHQWV�DUH�UHODWLYHO\�GHJUDGHG�ZKLOH�VKDOORZ��VXEWLGDO�URFN\�KDELWDWV�DSSHDU�WR�EH�LQ�D�EHWWHU�VWDWH���,Q�JHQHUDO��PRELOH�VSHFLHV�VXFK�DV�FHWDFHDQV��VHDOV�DQG�VHDELUGV�DOVR�VKRZ�D�PL[HG�SLFWXUH�EXW�RYHUDOO�DUH�VWDEOH�DW�WKH�DUHD�OHYHO���,Q�FRQWUDVW��WKH�UHGXFHG�SRSXODWLRQV�RI�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVK�DUH�D�PDMRU�FRQFHUQ���7KH�LQWURGXFWLRQ�DQG�HVWDEOLVKPHQW�RI�D�QXPEHU�RI�LQYDVLYH�QRQ�QDWLYH�VSHFLHV��IRU�H[DPSOH��LQWHUWLGDO�ZLUHZHHG��6DUJDVVXP�PXWLFXP��DQG�WKH�VXEWLGDO�FDUSHW�VHD�VTXLUW��'LGHPQXP�YH[LOOXP���ILUVW�IRXQG�DW�/DUJV�LQ�������LV�YHU\�FRQFHUQLQJ��

�5HVSRQVH���)RUZDUG�/RRN��0DQ\�RI�WKH�FRQFHUQV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�WKH�&O\GH�UHVXOW�IURP�KLVWRULFDO�SUDFWLFHV�DQG�PDQDJHPHQW�DSSURDFKHV��(QKDQFHG�VFLHQWLILF�NQRZOHGJH��LPSURYHG�UHJXODWLRQ�DQG�JUHDWHU�HQYLURQPHQWDO�DZDUHQHVV�KDYH�UHVXOWHG�LQ�VLJQLILFDQW�UHGXFWLRQV�LQ�LQSXWV�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�DQG�LPSURYHPHQWV�LQ�ZDWHU�TXDOLW\���3UHVVXUH�RQ�FRDVWDO�DQG�LQVKRUH�KDELWDWV�LV�LQFUHDVLQJ�IURP�LQGXVWU\�VXFK�DV�WKH�SURSRVHG�+XQWHUVWRQ�SRZHU�VWDWLRQ��ZLWK�D�SRVVLEOH�FKDQJH�LQ�FRROLQJ�ZDWHU�UHTXLUHPHQWV���DTXDFXOWXUH�DQG�UHFUHDWLRQDO�DFWLYLWLHV���7KH�&O\GH�PD\�KDYH�D�SRWHQWLDO�UHVRXUFH�WR�VXSSRUW�WKH�JHQHUDWLRQ�RI�PDULQH�UHQHZDEOH�HQHUJ\��PDLQO\�RIIVKRUH�ZLQG�DQG�WLGDO��*URZWK�RI�WKH�LQGXVWU\�DQG�GHYHORSPHQW�RI�DVVRFLDWHG�LQIUDVWUXFWXUH��LQFOXGLQJ�VHDEHG�FDEOHV��LV�DQWLFLSDWHG��)XUWKHU�ZRUN�ZLOO�EH�UHTXLUHG�WR�XQGHUVWDQG�WKH�HIIHFWV�RQ�VHDVFDSHV�DQG�ODQGVFDSHV��FRPPXQLWLHV��WRXULVP�DQG�UHFUHDWLRQ���,QFUHDVLQJ�VKLSSLQJ�DFWLYLW\��SRVVLEOH�QHZ�FRQWDLQHU�IDFLOLWLHV�DW�+XQWHUVWRQ��DQG�UHFUHDWLRQDO�VDLOLQJ�ZLOO�ULVN�WKH�IXUWKHU�LQWURGXFWLRQ�RI�QRQ�QDWLYH�VSHFLHV���8QGHUZDWHU�QRLVH�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�LQGXVWULDO�DQG�UHFUHDWLRQDO�DFWLYLWLHV�LV�H[SHFWHG�WR�LQFUHDVH��7KHUH�LV�DOVR�WKH�SRVVLELOLW\�RI�LQFUHDVHG�IHUU\�WUDIILF�WR�1RUWKHUQ�,UHODQG�ZLWK�IDFLOLWLHV�LQ�/RFK�5\DQ�GXH�WR�H[SDQG����

���� /LWHUDWXUH�5HYLHZ����)LVKLQJ��3HODJLF�DQG�6KHOILVK���7KH�ILVKLQJ�LQGXVWU\�KDV�KDG�D�PDMRU�LPSDFW�RQ�WKH�LPDJH�DQG�FKDUDFWHU�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�DQG�PDQ\�RI�LWV�FRDVWDO�WRZQV��,W�LV�D�FRPSOH[��WUDGLWLRQDO�LQGXVWU\�DQG�KROGV�JUHDW�HFRQRPLF�LPSRUWDQFH�IRU�PDQ\�UXUDO�FRPPXQLWLHV�DURXQG�6FRWODQG¶V�FRDVW��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�&O\GH��DV�ZHOO�DV�SROLWLFDO�LQIOXHQFH����)LVKLQJ�OHJLVODWLRQ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��)LVKHU\�OHJLVODWLRQ�FKDQJHV�KDYH�KDG�D�SURIRXQG�HIIHFW�RQ�WKH�ILVKHULHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH����

Page 13: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

$�EDQ�RQ�WUDZOLQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�ZDV�RULJLQDOO\�LQWURGXFHG�LQ�WKH�ODWH�QLQHWHHQWK�FHQWXU\�DIWHU�ILVKHU\�VFLHQWLVWV�DW�WKH�WLPH�VXJJHVWHG�WKDW�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�ILVKHULHV�ZHUH�EHFRPLQJ�GHSOHWHG�GXH�WR�H[FHVVLYH�WUDZOLQJ���7KH�$FW�ZDV�WKHQ�DPHQGHG�LQ������WR�LQFOXGH�EHDP�DQG�RWWHU�WUDZOLQJ�XQGHU�WKH�,OOHJDO�7UDZOLQJ��6FRWODQG��$FW��������7KH�FORVXUH�UHPDLQHG�LQ�SODFH�XQWLO������ZKHQ�WKH�6HD�)LVKHULHV��6FRWODQG��%\HODZ��1R�����FDPH�LQWR�HIIHFW�ZKLFK�SHUPLWWHG�VXPPHU����0D\�WR����6HSWHPEHU��RWWHU�WUDZOLQJ�ZLWKLQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�H[FHSW�ZLWKLQ�D���QDXWLFDO�PLOH�OLPLW���)XUWKHU�OHJLVODWLRQ�LQ�������6HD�)LVKHULHV��6FRWODQG��%\HODZV�QR�¶V����DQG�����HQDEOHG�ILVKLQJ�WR�WDNH�SODFH�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�\HDU��7KH���QDXWLFDO�PLOH�OLPLW�UHPDLQHG�XQWLO�������,QVKRUH�)LVKLQJ��6FRWODQG��$FW��ZKHQ�LW�ZDV�UHSHDOHG�XQGHU�SUHVVXUH�IURP�WKH�LQGXVWU\�GXULQJ�D�WLPH�ZKHQ�GHPHUVDO�ILQILVK�ODQGLQJV�ZHUH�LQ�GHFOLQH����7KH�+HUULQJ�)LVKHU\��7KH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�ZDV�RQFH�WKH�FHQWUH�RI�D�PDMRU�KHUULQJ�ILVKHU\�ZKLFK�KDG�EHHQ�SURVHFXWHG�LQ�6FRWWLVK�LQVKRUH�ZDWHUV�VLQFH�WKH���WK�FHQWXU\��DOWKRXJK�LW�KDV�EHHQ�VXEMHFW�WR�PDMRU�IOXFWXDWLRQV���:LWK�UHJDUGV�WR�OHJLVODWLRQ�DSSOLFDEOH�WR�WKH�KHUULQJ�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��LW�ZDV�SURKLELWHG�WR�SHODJLF�WUDZO�IRU�KHUULQJ�XQWLO�������,Q�WKH�VDPH�\HDU�D�%\HODZ�ZDV�SDVVHG�ZKLFK�SURKLELWHG�ILVKLQJ�IRU�KHUULQJ�E\�DQ\�PHWKRG�EHWZHHQ�PLGQLJKW�RQ�)ULGD\V�DQG�PLGQLJKW�RQ�6XQGD\V���7KH�VSDZQLQJ�JURXQG�IRU�KHUULQJ�ORFDWHG�RQ�WKH�%DOODQWUDH�%DQN�KDG�RULJLQDOO\�EHHQ�FORVHG�LQ������EXW�WKLV�ZDV�UHSHDOHG�LQ�������7KH�EDQN�VWD\HG�RSHQ�WR�ILVKLQJ�XQWLO������ZKHQ�D�VHDVRQDO�FORVXUH�ZDV�LQWURGXFHG�IURP����)HEUXDU\�XQWLO�WKH����$SULO�HDFK�\HDU��7KHUH�ZDV�DQ�H[HPSWLRQ�IRU�DQFKRUHG�GULIW�QHWV�EXW�WKH\�EHFDPH�LQFOXGHG�LQ�WKH�VHDVRQDO�FORVXUH�LQ��������7KH�PHDVXUHV�ZKLFK�UHPDLQ�LQ�IRUFH�LQ�RUGHU�WR�SURWHFW�WKH�VSULQJ�VSDZQLQJ�KHUULQJ�DUH��D�FRPSOHWH�EDQ�RQ�KHUULQJ�ILVKLQJ�IURP���-DQXDU\�WR����$SULO��D�FRPSOHWH�EDQ�RQ�DOO�IRUPV�RI�DFWLYH�ILVKLQJ�IURP���)HEUXDU\�WR���$SULO�RQ�WKH�%DOODQWUDH�%DQN�VSDZQLQJ�JURXQGV��D�EDQ�RQ�KHUULQJ�ILVKLQJ�EHWZHHQ�������6DWXUGD\�PRUQLQJ�DQG�������6XQGD\�QLJKW���,Q�WKH�SDVW�WKH�ILVKHU\�ZDV�DOPRVW�HQWLUHO\�GHSHQGHQW�RQ�VSULQJ�VSDZQLQJ�KHUULQJ�ZKLFK�VSDZQ�ORFDOO\�RQ�%DOODQWUDH�%DQN�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�XQWLO�DERXW������ZKHQ�D�QHZ�FRPSRQHQW�RI�DXWXPQ�VSDZQLQJ�KHUULQJ�JUDGXDOO\�LQFUHDVHG�LQ�LPSRUWDQFH�LQ�ODQGLQJV�DQG�ZDV�SUHGRPLQDQW�E\��������$OWKRXJK�DXWXPQ�VSDZQHG�KHUULQJ�IRUPHG�D�JUHDWHU�SDUW�RI�WKH�&O\GH�SRSXODWLRQ��WKHUH�ZDV�QR�HYLGHQFH�RI�DXWXPQ�VSDZQLQJ�RFFXUULQJ�ZLWKLQ�WKH�)LUWK���$OWKRXJK�WKHUH�KDG�EHHQ�QR�VLJQLILFDQW�FKDQJH�LQ�WKH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�WKH�WRWDO�KHUULQJ�SRSXODWLRQ��WKH�VSULQJ�VSDZQHUV�KDG�GHFUHDVHG�LQ�WKH�HDUO\�����V�ZKLFK�ZDV�DFFRPSDQLHG�E\�DQ�LQFUHDVH�LQ�WKH�DEVROXWH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�DXWXPQ�VSDZQHUV���,Q������7$&�UHJXODWLRQV�ZHUH�LPSRVHG�RQ�WKH�VWRFN�LQ�DGGLWLRQ�WR�D�FORVXUH�RI�WKH�ILVKHU\�IURP�2FWREHU�WKURXJK�WLOO�0D\�LQ�UHVSRQVH�WR�WKH�FOHDU�HYLGHQFH�RI�D�GHFUHDVH�LQ�WKH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�VSULQJ�VSDZQLQJ�KHUULQJ���

Page 14: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

7KH�FDXVH�RI�WKLV�GHFOLQH�PD\�EH�QDWXUDO�DV�LW�FDQ�EH�DWWULEXWHG�ZLWK�WKH�UHGXFHG�UHFUXLWPHQW�RI�WKH�ORFDO�VSULQJ�VSDZQLQJ�VWRFN��EXW�WKH�HIIHFWV�RI�LQWHQVLYH�H[SORLWDWLRQ�FDQQRW�EH�UXOHG�RXW���/DQGLQJV�RI�KHUULQJ�IURP�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�IOXFWXDWHG�DERXW�D�ORQJ�WHUP�DYHUDJH�RI��������WRQQHV�LQ�WKH�SHULRG������������IURP�����������WKH�DYHUDJH�ODQGLQJV�ZHUH�GRZQ�WR�����W�DQG�RQO\������WRQQHV�IURP�����������ZKHQ�ODQGLQJV�EHFDPH�UHJXODWHG���6LQFH������FDWFKHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�KDYH�H[FHHGHG�������WRQQHV�RQO\�RQFH��7KH�UHDVRQV�IRU�WKH�FROODSVH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�KHUULQJ�DUH�QRW�FOHDU�FXW��+RZHYHU��GHFOLQLQJ�VSDZQLQJ�VWRFN�ELRPDVV��KLJK�ILVKLQJ�PRUWDOLW\�DQG�ODFN�RI�UHFUXLWPHQW�WR�WKH�ORFDO�VSULQJ�VSDZQLQJ�VWRFN�PD\�ZHOO�KDYH�EHHQ�FDXVDWLYH���7RGD\�KHUULQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�DUH�H[SORLWHG�E\�D�VPDOO�QXPEHU�RI�ORFDO�WUDZOHUV�DQG�E\�SDLU�WUDZOHUV�IURP�1RUWKHUQ�,UHODQG��7KHUH�LV�QRW�PXFK�LQIRUPDWLRQ�RQ�WKH�FXUUHQW�VWDWXV�RI�WKH�VWRFN�DV�FDWFK�DQG�VDPSOLQJ�GDWD�DYDLODELOLW\�KDV�EHHQ�PLQLPDO�VLQFH�WKH�HDUO\�����V��7KXV��WKH�SUHFLVH�VWDWXV�RI�WKH�VWRFN�LV�XQFHUWDLQ��WKH�VWRFN�LV�ORZ�EXW�WKHUH�LV�FXUUHQWO\�QR�HYLGHQW�GRZQZDUG�WUHQG��7KH�&O\GH�KHUULQJ�VWRFN�LV�UHFRJQLVHG�DV�D�VHSDUDWH�VWRFN�EXW�LV�QRW�FXUUHQWO\�DVVHVVHG�DQDO\WLFDOO\���7KH�1HSKURSV�)LVKHU\��7KH�/DQJRXVWLQH��1RUZD\�/REVWHU��'XEOLQ�%D\�3UDZQ�RU�1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV��/��LV�WKH�PRVW�FRPPHUFLDO�VKHOOILVK�UHVRXUFH�LQ�8.�ZDWHUV�DQG�LV�H[WHQVLYHO\�H[SORLWHG�WKURXJKRXW�(XURSH���8S�XQWLO�WKH�HDUO\�����¶V�1HSKURSV�DWWUDFWHG�OLWWOH�FRPPHUFLDO�DWWHQWLRQ�LQ�6FRWODQG�DQG�ZDV�UDUHO\�RQ�VDOH�LQ�WKH�UHJLRQ��+RZHYHU��LQ�WKH�ODVW����\HDUV�DQ�LPSRUWDQW�ILVKHU\�IRU�1HSKURSV�KDV�GHYHORSHG�LQ�6FRWODQG�DQG�LV�QRZ�WKH�ODUJHVW�LQ�(XURSH����7KHVH�GHYHORSPHQWV�ZHUH�GHOD\HG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�E\�WKH�+HUULQJ�)LVKHU\��6FRWODQG��$FW�������ZKLFK�SURKLELWHG�RWWHU�DQG�EHDP�WUDZOLQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�XQWLO������ZKHQ�RWWHU�WUDZOLQJ�IRU�1HSKURSV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�ZDV�SHUPLWWHG�LQ�WKH�VXPPHU��6KHOOILVK�VXFK�DV�1HSKURSV��VFDOORSV��OREVWHU��HGLEOH�DQG�YHOYHW�FUDE�DUH�QRZ�WKH�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW�UHVRXUFH�WR�WKH�LQVKRUH�IOHHW�RI�WKH�UHJLRQ��7KH�PDMRULW\�RI�WKH�LQVKRUH�WUDZOLQJ�IOHHW�DUH�GHSHQGHQW�RQ�1HSKURSV�ZKLFK�DUH�ODQGHG�DOO�\HDU���1HSKURSV�DUH�WDUJHWHG�E\�VPDOO�GHPHUVDO�WUDZOHUV�RI�QR�PRUH�WKDQ����P�DQG�DUH�DOORZHG�WR�XVH�D�PHVK�VL]H�RI���PP��SULRU�WR�������DQG���PP�IURP������RQZDUGV�LQ�WKH�FRG�HQG�SURYLGHG�WKDW�1HSKURSV�FRQVWLWXWH�D�FHUWDLQ�PLQLPXP�SURSRUWLRQ�E\�ZHLJKW�RI�WKH�WRWDO�ODQGLQJV���,Q�PRUH�GHWDLO��WKH�FKDQJHV�LQ�WHFKQLFDO�PHDVXUH�UHJXODWLRQV�DSSO\LQJ�RQ�WKH�:HVW�RI�6FRWODQG��,&(6�9,D��ZHUH�GHVLJQHG�WR�LPSURYH�WKH�VHOHFWLYLW\�DQG�UHGXFH�XQZDQWHG�FDWFKHV�RI�VPDOO�ILVK��7KH�PLQLPXP�PHVK�VL]H�LQ�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�ZDV�LQFUHDVHG�IURP���PP�WR���PP�DV�SDUW�RI�WKH������(8�HPHUJHQF\�PHDVXUHV�WR�GHDO�ZLWK�UHGXFHG�JDGRLG�SRSXODWLRQV��$�VHFRQG�PHDVXUH�ZDV�WKH�UHTXLUHPHQW�IRU�1HSKURSV�YHVVHOV�RSHUDWLQJ�RQ�WKH�ZHVW�FRDVW�WR�XVH�D�VTXDUH�PHVK�SDQHO�ZLWK�D�PHVK�VL]H�RI����PP�DV�SDUW�RI�WKH�6FRWWLVK�&RQVHUYDWLRQ�&UHGLWV�VFKHPH��LQ�SODFH�VLQFH���������2ZLQJ�WR�LWV�EXUURZLQJ�EHKDYLRXU��WKH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�1HSKURSV�LV�UHVWULFWHG�WR�DUHDV�RI�D�SDUWLFXODU�VHGLPHQW�W\SH��PXG��VDQG\�PXG�DQG�PXGG\�VDQG���,Q�WKH�&O\GH��EXUURZ�GHQVLWLHV�DUH�KLJKHU�LQ�WKH�VRXWK�DQG�WKH�DYHUDJH�VL]H�RI�1HSKURSV�LV�VPDOOHU��7KLV�LV�SDUWLFXODUO\�HYLGHQW�IURP�WKH�GLIIHUHQFHV�LQ�GLVFDUG�FRPSRVLWLRQ�EHWZHHQ�WKH�QRUWK�DQG�WKH�VRXWK�RI�WKH�&O\GH��&DWFKHV�IURP�WKH�VRXWK�KDYH�D�KLJKHU�SURSRUWLRQ�RI�VPDOO�

Page 15: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

1HSKURSV�UHVXOWLQJ�LQ�ODUJH�SURSRUWLRQV�RI�XQGHUVL]HG�1HSKURSV�DQG�1HSKURSV�KHDGV��7UDZOV�LQ�WKH�VRXWK�DOVR�JHQHUDWH�ODUJHU�TXDQWLWLHV�RI�URXQGILVK�GLVFDUGV��������LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�LPSRUWDQW�FRPPHUFLDO�VSHFLHV�ZKLWLQJ��FRG�DQG�KDGGRFN���6XUYH\�DVVHVVPHQWV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�1HSKURSV�VWRFN�DUH�FDUULHG�RXW�DQQXDOO\�E\�DQ�XQGHUZDWHU�79�VXUYH\��8:79��ZKLFK�GHWHUPLQHV�1HSKURSV�EXUURZ�GHQVLW\�RQ�WKH�VHDEHG��7KH�LQIRUPDWLRQ�JDWKHUHG�SURYLGHV�DQ�LQGH[�RI�VWRFN�DEXQGDQFH�ZKLFK�LV�LQGHSHQGHQW�RI�WKH�ILVKHU\�DQG�WRJHWKHU�SURYLGHV�LQIRUPDWLRQ�RQ�WKH�VWDWXV�DQG�SUHGLFWHG�VWRFN�OHYHO���7KH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�KDV�DOVR�GHYHORSHG�LQ�UHFHQW�\HDUV�GXH�WR�DQ�LQFUHDVH�LQ�FDWFKHV�E\�VWDWLF�JHDU�VXFK�DV�FUHHOLQJ���7KH�SHUFHSWLRQ�RI�WKH�VWDWH�RI�WKH�VWRFN�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�LV�WKDW�LW�LV�VWDEOH�DQG�ZLWK�WKH�UHFHQW�KLJK�FDWFKHV�E\�WUDZOHUV�LW�LV�SHUFHLYHG�WR�EH�D�VXVWDLQDEOH�ILVKHU\��+RZHYHU��D�UHGXFWLRQ�LQ�DEXQGDQFH�LQ������FRXSOHG�ZLWK�WKH�LQFUHDVH�LQ�ODQGLQJV�KDV�OHG�,&(6�WR�DGYLVH�D�PRUH�SUHFDXWLRQDU\�DSSURDFK�LQ�UHFHQW�\HDUV���6FDOORSV��7KH�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW�FRPPHUFLDO�PROOXVFDQ�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUH�WKH�VFDOORS��3HFWHQ�PD[LPXV��DQG�WKH�UHODWHG�EXW�VPDOOHU�TXHHQ�VFDOORS��&KODP\V�RSHUFXODULV�����%RWK�VSHFLHV�RFFXU�ZKHUHYHU�WKH�VHD�EHG�FRQVLVWV�RI�VDQG��ILQH�JUDYHO�RU�VDQG\�JUDYHO��7KH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�VXLWDEOH�VHGLPHQWV�UHVXOWV�LQ�WKH�VSHFLHV�EHLQJ�IRXQG�LQ�D�QDUURZ�VWULS�RI�VHD�EHG�RQ�HDFK�VLGH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�DQG�DURXQG�$UUDQ�LQ�GHSWKV�QR�JUHDWHU�WKDQ���P��%RWK�WKH�VFDOORS�DQG�WKH�TXHHQ�DUH�ILOWHU�IHHGHUV��WKH�VFDOORS�OLHV�UHFHVVHG�LQ�WKH�VHGLPHQW��7KH�TXHHQ��KRZHYHU��GR�QRW�UHFHVV�LQWR�WKH�VHGLPHQW�DQG�ZLOO�VZLP�VSRUDGLFDOO\�IRU�D�VKRUW�WLPH���$�GUHGJH�ILVKHU\�IRU�WKH�VFDOORS�VWDUWHG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�LQ�WKH�����¶V�EXW�UHPDLQHG�VPDOO�GXULQJ�WKH�����V�DQG�����V�ZLWK�ODQGLQJV�DYHUDJLQJ�����WRQQHV���,Q�WKH�����V�WKHUH�ZDV�D�UDGLFDO�FKDQJH�LQ�WKH�ILVKHU\��D�ODUJH�GHPDQG�IRU�VFDOORSV�KDG�GHYHORSHG�LQ�FRQWLQHQWDO�(XURSH�UHVXOWLQJ�LQ�D�KXJH�H[SDQVLRQ�RI�WKH�ILVKHU\��7KH�DGYHQW�RI�SURFHVVLQJ�IDFWRULHV�LQ�6FRWODQG�DOVR�DOORZHG�ILVKLQJ�IRU�VFDOORSV�WR�RFFXU�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�\HDU���6FDOORSV�DUH�QRZ�H[SORLWHG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�E\�D�IOHHW�RI�GUHGJLQJ�ERDWV�ZKLFK�GHYHORSHG�LQ�WKH�DUHD�LQ�WKH�ODWH�����¶V��7KH�$\U�DQG�&DPSEHOWRZQ�)LVKHU\�'LVWULFW��LQFOXGHV�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD�DQG�KDV�EHHQ�WKH�PDMRU�ORFXV�RI�WKH�ILVKHU\�LQ�6FRWODQG�VLQFH�WKH�ILVKHU\�EHJDQ���7KH�WUDGLWLRQDO�PHWKRG�RI�FDWFKLQJ�VFDOORSV�LV�E\�GUHGJH�ZKLFK�EDVLFDOO\�FRQVLVWV�RI�D�ULJLG�PHWDO�IUDPH�DQG�WRRWKHG�EDU�WKDW�GLJV�LQWR�WKH�VHD�EHG�DW�DQ�DQJOH�RI���������WKLV�LV�WRZHG�DORQJ�WKH�VHD�EHG�DQG�WKH�VFDOORSV�DUH�VFUDSHG�LQWR�D�QHWWHG�EDJ��7KHUH�LV�VRPH�FRPPHUFLDO�GLYLQJ�IRU�VFDOORSV���,Q�6HSWHPEHU������7KH�3URKLELWLRQ�RI�)LVKLQJ�IRU�6FDOORSV��6FRWODQG��2UGHU������ZDV�LPSOHPHQWHG��7KLV�SXW�LQ�SODFH�QHZ�PHDVXUHV�IRU�VFDOORS�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�WKDW�OLPLWHG�WKH�QXPEHU�RI�GUHGJHV�D�VFDOORS�YHVVHO�FDQ�WRZ�WR�D�PD[LPXP�RI���SHU�VLGH�IRU�6FRWWLVK�,QVKRUH�ZDWHUV���&XUUHQWO\�WKHUH�LV�QR�FDWFK�OLPLW�RQ�8.�VFDOORS�ILVKHULHV��7KH\�DUH�PRVWO\�PDQDJHG�WKURXJK�PLQLPXP�VL]HV��UHVWULFWLRQ�RQ�GUHGJH�QXPEHUV�DQG�VHDVRQDO�FORVXUHV�LQ�VRPH�DUHDV���

Page 16: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

6FDOORS�VWRFNV�DUH�KLJKO\�VXVFHSWLEOH�WR�RYHUILVKLQJ�GXH�WR�WKHLU�OLPLWHG�PRELOLW\�DQG�FRQILQHPHQW�WR�D�SDUWLFXODU�W\SH�RI�VHD�EHG��+RZHYHU��VFDOORS�VWRFNV�KDYH�ODUJHO\�KHOG�XS�ZHOO�RQ�DOO�JURXQGV��HYHQ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�ZKHUH�ILVKLQJ�KDV�JRQH�RQ�WKH�ORQJHVW���2WKHU�6KHOOILVK��7KHUH�DUH�VPDOO�FUHHO�ILVKHULHV�IRU�FUDEV��OREVWHUV�DQG�VKULPS�PRVWO\�RQ�D�SDUW�WLPH�EDVLV���*DWKHULQJ�PXVVHOV�ZDV�D�IORXULVKLQJ�LQGXVWU\�LQ�6FRWODQG�DW�WKH�HQG�RI�WKH�QLQHWHHQWK�FHQWXU\�DQG�DFFRXQWHG�IRU�����RI�WKH�WRWDO�VKHOOILVK�ODQGLQJV��EXW�QRZ�RQO\�D�IHZ�DUH�WDNHQ��PDLQO\�LQ�WKH�ORFKV�DQG�PDLQO\�IRU�KXPDQ�FRQVXPSWLRQ���%HGV�RI�FRFNOHV�DUH�IRXQG�LQ�VHYHUDO�SDUWV�RI�WKH�&O\GH��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�,VOH�RI�%XWH��WKH�$\UVKLUH�FRDVW�DQG�DW�6WUDQUDHU���7KH�QDWLYH�R\VWHU�ZDV�RQFH�DEXQGDQW�DQG�ZLGHVSUHDG�LQ�6FRWWLVK�ZDWHUV�DQG�QRZ�LW�LV�VFDUFH�ZLWK�WKH�RQO\�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVKHU\�UHPDLQLQJ�LQ�6FRWODQG�LV�LQ�/RFK�5\DQ���$URXQG�WKH�$UUDQ�FRDVW�HOHFWULF�ILVKLQJ�IRU�UD]RU�ILVK�LV�NQRZQ�WR�RFFXU��)LVKLQJ�IRU�UD]RUV�XVLQJ�HOHFWULFLW\�LV�UHSRUWHG�WR�EH�D�YHU\�HIIHFWLYH�PHWKRG��+RZHYHU��WKHUH�LV�OLPLWHG�NQRZOHGJH�RI�WKH�HIIHFW�RI�WKH�HOHFWULF�ILHOG�RQ�RWKHU�VSHFLHV��%UHHQ�HW�DO����������7KH�OHJDOLW\�RI�XVLQJ�HOHFWULFLW\�DV�D�ILVKLQJ�PHWKRG�LV�DQ�LVVXH�RI�FRQFHUQ���(QYLURQPHQWDO�,PSDFWV�RI�)LVKLQJ��7KLV�UHSRUW�GRHV�QRW�FRYHU�WKH�VXEMHFW�RI�WKH�HQYLURQPHQWDO�LPSDFW�RI�ILVKLQJ��RWKHU�WKDQ�RQ�WKH�KHDOWK�DQG�GLYHUVLW\�RI�ILVK�VWRFNV��LQ�GHWDLO��$GGLWLRQDO�UHSRUWV�DUH�EHLQJ�SUHSDUHG�RQ�WKH�VXEMHFW��IRU�H[DPSOH�D�UHSRUW�RQ�WKH�EHQWKLF�LPSDFW�RI�ILVKLQJ�JHDUV�IXQGHG�E\�&2$67�DQG�6,)7��7KLV�UHSRUW�GRHV��KRZHYHU��SUHVHQW�D�EULHI�UHYLHZ�RI�WKH�VXEMHFW�RI�VHD�EHG�LPSDFWV�DQG�GLVFDUGV���

���� +HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV���������7KH�UHSRUW�JRHV�RQ�WR�GHVFULEH�FKDQJHV�LQ�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�SRSXODWLRQV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�LQ�VRPH�GHWDLO��SULQFLSDOO\�XVLQJ�WKH�UHVXOWV�RI�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV����������/DQGLQJV��7KH�ODQGLQJV�RI�WKH�SULQFLSDO�GHPHUVDO�ILVK��DQG�RI�1HSKURSV��IURP�WKH�&O\GH�VLQFH������DUH�VKRZQ�LQ�WKH�ILJXUH�EHORZ���

Page 17: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

([FO���QP ,QFO���QP([FO���QP ,QFO���QP

��

)ROORZLQJ�WKH�RSHQLQJ�RI�WKH�&O\GH�WR�WUDZOHUV�LQ�������ODQGLQJV�URVH�WRZDUGV�D�PD[LPXP�LQ�WKH�HDUO\�����V��DQG�WKHQ�KDYH�VXEVHTXHQWO\�FUDVKHG��7KH�UHPRYDO�RI�WKH���QP�OLPLW�LQ������UHVXOWHG�LQ�WKH�ODQGLQJV�ULVLQJ�VOLJKWO\�IRU�RQH�\HDU��EHIRUH�WKH�VWHHS�GHFOLQH�FRQWLQXHG���1HSKURSV�ODQGLQJV��LQ�FRQWUDVW��KDYH�VWHDGLO\�ULVHQ�VLQFH�WKH�PLG�����V���)URP�ODQGLQJV�GDWD�DORQH�LW�ZRXOG�VHHP�WKDW�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�KDYH�GLVDSSHDUHG�IURP�WKH�&O\GH��WR�EH�UHSODFHG�E\�1HSKURSV��+RZHYHU��WKLV�LV�IDU�IURP�WKH�DFWXDO�WUXH�SLFWXUH�RI�WKH�KHDOWK�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�HFRV\VWHP���/DQGLQJV�RI�D�SDUWLFXODU�VSHFLHV�FDQ�EH�DIIHFWHG�E\�D�GLYHUVH�PXOWLWXGH�RI�IDFWRUV��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�DPRXQW�GLVFDUGHG��PDUNHW�GHPDQG�IRU�WKDW�VSHFLHV��OHJLVODWLYH�FRQWUROV�LQFOXGLQJ�TXRWDV�DQG�HIIRUW�UHVWULFWLRQV��)RU�WKLV�UHDVRQ��DQDO\VHV�WKDW�XVH�MXVW�ODQGLQJV�GDWD��H�J��7KXUVWRQ�DQG�5REHUWV��������UHTXLUH�VLJQLILFDQW�FDYHDWV�WR�EH�DSSOLHG���6XUYH\�'DWD��)RU�WKLV�UHDVRQ�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV��������XVHG�UHVHDUFK�YHVVHO�VXUYH\�GDWD���6LQFH�HDUO\�LQ�WKH���WK�FHQWXU\��WKH�6FRWWLVK�*RYHUQPHQW��WKURXJK�LWV�0DULQH�/DERUDWRU\�LQ�$EHUGHHQ��KDYH�FRQGXFWHG�WUDZO�VXUYH\V�RI�WKH�&O\GH�IDLUO\�FRQVLVWHQWO\�RQ�DQ�DQQXDO�EDVLV��6LQFH������VWDQGDUGLVHG�VXUYH\�PHWKRGV�KDYH�EHHQ�XVHG��+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV���������WRRN�D�VWDWLVWLFDO�DSSURDFK�LQ�RUGHU�WR�UHFRQVWUXFW�WLPH�VHULHV�GHVFULELQJ�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\�EDFN�XQWLO��������%LRPDVV��8VLQJ�WKH�VXUYH\�GDWD��WKH\�IRXQG�WKDW���

Page 18: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

��ODQGLQJV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�IURP�WKH�&O\GH�LQ�WKH�GHFDGH�����������DSSHDU�WR�KDYH�EHHQ�����RI�WKH�WRWDO�ELRPDVV��7KLV�SHUFHQWDJH�EHFDPH�����LQ�WKH�GHFDGH����������������LQ����������������LQ�����������DQG����LQ���������������WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LQ�WKH�GHFDGHV�����������DQG�����������ZDV�RYHU������WRQQHV��7KLV�LV�DSSUR[LPDWHO\�WZLFH�WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�ILVK�LQ�WKH�GHFDGH������������a�����WRQQHV��DQG�DSSUR[LPDWHO\�IRXU�WLPHV�WKH�ELRPDVV�LQ�WKH�GHFDGH������������a�����WRQQHV������LQ�WKH�GHFDGHV�����������DQG������������ILVK�VPDOOHU�WKDQ�WKH�PLQLPXP�ODQGLQJV�VL]H�PDGH�XS�RQ�DYHUDJH�����RI�WKH�WRWDO�ELRPDVV��ZKHUHDV�LQ�WKH�GHFDGHV�����������DQG������������ILVK�VPDOOHU�WKDQ�WKH�PLQLPXP�ODQGLQJ�VL]H�PDGH�XS�RQ�DYHUDJH�����RI�WKH�ELRPDVV���,W�LV�TXLWH�FOHDU�WKHUH�ZDV�H[WUHPHO\�KHDY\�H[SORLWDWLRQ�RI�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VWRFNV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LQ�WKH�GHFDGHV����������������������DQG�������������:KDW�LV�DOVR�FOHDU�LV�WKDW��GHVSLWH�WKH�LQWHQVH�ILVKLQJ�SUHVVXUH�RQ�GHPHUVDO�VWRFNV�WKDW�WRRN�SODFH�LQ�WKRVH�GHFDGHV��WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�ERXQFHG�EDFN�DQG�LQ�IDFW�EHFDPH�JUHDWHU�WKDQ�LQ�WKH�GHFDGHV�ZKHQ�ILVKLQJ�SUHVVXUH�ZDV�PXFK�ORZHU��SULRU�WR�WKH�����V���$OWKRXJK�WKH�WRWDO�ELRPDVV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�UHFRYHUHG��WKH�VL]H�RI�LQGLYLGXDO�ILVK�ZDV�PXFK�FKDQJHG�LQ�UHFHQW�GHFDGHV�FRPSDUHG�WR�SUHYLRXV�GHFDGHV��:KLOH�WKHUH�ZDV�D�UHFRYHUHG�ELRPDVV��LW�ZDV�SUHGRPLQDQWO\�VPDOO�ILVK��ZLWK�!����EHLQJ�VPDOOHU�WKDQ�WKH�PLQLPXP�ODQGLQJ�VL]H���,Q�WHUPV�RI�VSHFLHV��!����RI�WKH�VPDOO�ILVK�ZDV�ZKLWLQJ���,Q�WHUPV�RI�DJH��WKH�VPDOO�ZKLWLQJ�KDYH�EHHQ�SUHGRPLQDQWO\���\HDU�ROGV�DW�OHDVW�VLQFH�WKH�ODWH�����V���7KHVH�REVHUYDWLRQV�LPSO\�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�LV�LQGHHG�SURGXFWLYH��3ULPDU\�SURGXFWLRQ�LQ�WKH�IRUP�RI�SK\WRSODQNWRQ�JURZWK��DQG�VHFRQGDU\�SURGXFWLRQ�LQ�WKH�IRUP�RI�]RRSODQNWRQ�JURZWK�HDFK�\HDU�VXSSRUWV�D�ODUJH�ELRPDVV�RI�\RXQJ����\HDU�ROG�ZKLWLQJ����$�YDOLG�TXHVWLRQ�LV�ZKHUH�DUH�WKH�VSDZQHUV"�:KDW�ILVK�DUH�UHSURGXFLQJ�DQG�SURGXFLQJ�HDFK�\HDU�DQ�LQIOX[�RI�QHZ���\HDU�ROGV"���7KHUH�DUH�QR�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�DQVZHUV�WR�WKHVH�TXHVWLRQV��:KLWLQJ�FDQ�VH[XDOO\�PDWXUH�DW�DJH����DOWKRXJK�QR�PDWXULW\�GDWD�KDV�\HW�EHHQ�H[DPLQHG�IRU�&O\GH�ZKLWLQJ��7KH�VXUYH\V�PD\�KDYH�PLVVHG�WKH�VSDZQLQJ�ROGHU�ILVK��7KH\�PD\�EH�LQ�WKH�DUHDV�WKH�VXUYH\�GLG�QRW�FRYHU��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�XSSHU�)LUWK��WKH�VHD�ORFKV�DQG�WKH�FRDVWDO�]RQH��$Q�DOWHUQDWLYH�PD\�EH�WKDW�WKH�VSDZQLQJ�SRSXODWLRQ�LV�QRW�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH�DW�DOO��DQG�WKH�SRSXODWLRQ�RI�VPDOO�ZKLWLQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�FUHDWHG�E\�UHFUXLWPHQW�IURP�D�GLVWDQW�VSDZQLQJ�SRSXODWLRQ��DOWKRXJK�WKLV�LV�WKRXJKW�WR�EH�XQOLNHO\��,Q�RUGHU�WR�ILQG�WKH�DQVZHU�WR�WKHVH�TXHVWLRQV��D�VXUYH\�RI�VPDOO�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�QHHGHG��IRFXVVLQJ�RQ�VH[XDO�PDWXULW\���$QRWKHU�YDOLG�TXHVWLRQ�LV��ZKDW�KDSSHQV�WR�WKH�ROGHU�ILVK"�$JDLQ�QR�FRQFOXVLYH�DQVZHUV�DUH�DYDLODEOH��+RZHYHU��DQDO\VLV�RI�GDWD�IURP�WKH�066�REVHUYHU�SURJUDPPH�VXJJHVWV�WKDW�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�PD\�EH�SDUWO\�UHVSRQVLEOH�IRU�WKH�FXUUHQW�DEVHQFH�RI�ROGHU��ODUJHU�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH���,Q�VXPPDU\��IURP�WKH�HVWLPDWHV�RI��ELRPDVV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�WKH�FRQFOXVLRQV�DUH���

Page 19: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

��WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�QRZ�JUHDWHU�WKDQ�LW�ZDV�LQ�WKH�����¶V�DQG�����¶V��,Q�IDFW�PRUH�WKDQ�WZLFH�DV�JUHDW�����EXW�����RI�WKLV�ELRPDVV�LV�VPDOOHU�WKDQ�WKH�PLQLPXP�ODQGLQJ�VL]H��DQG�����RI�LW�LV�ZKLWLQJ�����WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�ELRPDVV�KDV�UHFRYHUHG�IURP�WKH�LQFUHGLEO\�KLJK�H[SORLWDWLRQ�UDWHV�LQ�WKH�����¶V�DQG�����¶V�����KHQFH�WKH�&O\GH�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHP�LV�SURGXFWLYH��,W�WKHUHIRUH�KDV�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�WR�EH�UHVWRUHG�����KRZHYHU��LW�LV�LQ�D�QHZ�UHJLPH�ZLWK�DEXQGDQW�VPDOO�ILVK�DQG�IHZ�ODUJH�ILVK�����LQ�RUGHU�WR�UHFRYHU�WKH�HFRV\VWHP�WRZDUGV�D�KHDOWK\�VWDWH��ZH�QHHG�WR�ILQG�PHDVXUHV�ZKLFK�DOORZ�ODUJH�ILVK�WR�VXUYLYH�DQG�LQFUHDVH����8VLQJ�WKH�VXUYH\�GDWD��+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV��������VKRZ�KRZ�WKH�PL[�RI�ILVK�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�KDV�DOWHUHG��&RQFOXVLRQV�IURP�WKH�VWXG\�RI�WKH�PL[�RI�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�FDQ�EH�VXPPDULVHG�DV�IROORZV�����)LVKLQJ�KDV�VLJQLILFDQWO\�DOWHUHG�WKH�PL[�RI�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�����7KH�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\�KDV�FKDQJHG�IURP�DQ�HYHQ�RQH��ZLWK�PDQ\�ODUJH�SUHGDWRU�VSHFLHV��WR�RQH�GRPLQDWHG�E\�ZKLWLQJ�DQG�RWKHU�VPDOO�ILVK�����$ORQJ�ZLWK�RWKHU�LQGLFDWRUV�DQG�WDJJLQJ�GDWD��WKH�IDFW�WKDW�VSHFLHV�HYHQQHVV�FKDQJHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�YHU\�GLIIHUHQWO\�WKDQ�WKDW�REVHUYHG�LQ�QHDUE\�ZDWHUV�LQ�WKH�6HD�RI�WKH�+HEULGHV�DQG�WKH�,ULVK�6HD�FRQILUPV�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�ILVK�SRSXODWLRQV�UHVSRQG�ORFDOO\�WR�ILVKLQJ�SUHVVXUH����7KLV�DOVR�VXJJHVWV�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�FDQ�EH�PDQDJHG�VHSDUDWHO\�IURP�WKH�6FRWWLVK�ZHVW�FRDVW��ZLWK�D�JRRG�FKDQFH�RI�UHFRYHU\�XVLQJ�ORFDO�UHVWRUDWLRQ�PHDVXUHV�LUUHVSHFWLYH�RI�ZKDW�KDSSHQV�HOVHZKHUH�����,QGHHG��FRQVHUYDWLRQ�PHDVXUHV�DSSOLHG�WR�WKH�ZHVW�FRDVW�DV�D�ZKROH�PD\�QRW�EH�VXIILFLHQW�IRU�WKH�&O\GH��DV�LW�UHVSRQGV�GLIIHUHQWO\�DQG�LQGHSHQGHQWO\�IURP�WKH�DGMDFHQW�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV������+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV��������IRXQG�WKDW�WKHUH�ZDV�D�ODJ�RI�DERXW����\HDUV�EHWZHHQ�WKH�PD[LPXP�DYHUDJH�UHODWLYH�UHPRYDO�RI�ILVK�IURP�WKH�&O\GH��WKH�+DUYHVW�5DWLR�SHDNHG�LQ�DERXW�������DQG�WKH�PD[LPXP�HIIHFW�RQ�WKH�PL[�RI�VSHFLHV��ZKLFK�UHDFKHG�D�PLQLPXP�LQ��������6XFK�D�ODJ�LV�IRXQG�LQ�RWKHU�LQGLFDWRUV�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV��������XVH�RI�WKH�KHDOWK�RI�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��,W�LV�W\SLFDO�RI�WKH�FRPSOH[�LQWHUDFWLRQV�ZKLFK�H[LVW�LQ�DQ�HFRV\VWHP��DQG�VKRZV�WKDW�ZH�FDQ�QRW�H[SHFW�UHVWRUDWLRQ�PHDVXUHV�WR�KDYH�LPPHGLDWH�HIIHFWV��7KLV�LV�SDUWLFXODUO\�WUXH�LI�ZH�KDYH�IRUFHG�WKH�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP�IURP�RQH�VWDEOH�VWDWH�WR�DQRWKHU����6XPPDU\��7KHUH�DUH�DOUHDG\�SRVLWLYH�VLJQV�RI�FKDQJH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�SRSXODWLRQV���6LQFH������WKH�VSHFLHV�HYHQQHVV�LQGH[�LV�LQFUHDVLQJ��,Q�WKH�SHULRG�����������MXVW���ILVK�VSHFLHV�PDGH�XS�����RI�WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�&O\GH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK��ZKHUHDV�LQ�����������WKLV�KDG�LQFUHDVHG�WR����,Q�WKH�HDUOLHU�SHULRG�����RI�WKH�ELRPDVV�ZDV�ZKLWLQJ��ZKLOH�LQ�WKH�ODWHU�SHULRG�WKLV�KDG�GHFUHDVHG�WR������3RVVLEO\�WKH�PRVW�SRVLWLYH�VLJQ�LV�LQ�WKH�VL]H�RI�WKH�ELRPDVV�LWVHOI��ZKLFK�KDV�VKRZQ�D�VLJQLILFDQW�LQFUHDVH�VLQFH�������$OO�RI�WKHVH�LQGLFDWRUV�RI�LPSURYLQJ�

Page 20: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

FRQGLWLRQV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�VKRXOG�EH�VWURQJ�DUJXPHQWV�VXSSRUWLQJ�WKH�SURVSHFW�RI�D�UHVWRUHG�&O\GH���7KH�FKDQJHV�LQ�WHFKQLFDO�PHDVXUHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\��FKDQJH�IURP���PP�WR���PP�PHVK�VL]H��LQWURGXFWLRQ�RI�VTXDUH�PHVK�SDQHOV��SRWHQWLDOO\�DVVLVWHG�LQ�UHGXFLQJ�FDWFKHV�RI�VPDOO�ILVK�DQG�PD\�KDYH�FRQWULEXWHG�WR�VRPH�RI�WKH�HDUO\�VLJQV�RI�LPSURYHPHQW�UHFRUGHG�LQ�WKLV�VWXG\��)RU�WKLV�LPSURYHPHQW�WR�FRQWLQXH��IXUWKHU�GHYHORSPHQWV�DUH�UHTXLUHG�LQ�RUGHU�WR�DOORZ�KLJKHU�SURSRUWLRQV�RI�PHGLXP�DQG�ODUJH�VL]H�ILVK�WR�HVFDSH�DQG�JURZ���,I�ZH�DUH�WR�GHVLJQ�RSWLPXP�UHVWRUDWLRQ�SODQV�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��WKH\�PXVW�EH�EXLOW�RQ�VRXQG�VFLHQFH��+RZHYHU��ZH�FDQ�QRW�ZDLW�LQGHILQLWHO\�IRU�WKH�UHVXOWV�RI�IXUWKHU�VFLHQWLILF�VWXGLHV��$Q�LQWHJUDWHG�VFLHQFH���SROLF\�DSSURDFK�LV�QHHGHG�VR�WKDW�SURJUHVV�FDQ�EH�PDGH�RQ�ERWK�IURQWV�DW�WKH�VDPH�WLPH��7R�EH�VXFFHVVIXO��WKLV�VKRXOG�LQWLPDWHO\�LQYROYH�DOO�VHFWRUV�RI�VRFLHW\�ZLWK�DQ�LQWHUHVW�LQ�WKH�IXWXUH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD���,W�FRXOG�EH�DUJXHG�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�JLYHV�6FRWODQG�DQ�RSSRUWXQLW\�WR�GHPRQVWUDWH�OHDGHUVKLS�LQ�WHUPV�RI�HFRV\VWHP�UHVWRUDWLRQ��,W�LV�RXU�RZQ�LQODQG�VHD��RYHU�ZKLFK�ZH�KDYH�VLJQLILFDQW�PDQDJHPHQW�FRQWURO��:H�ZLOO�EH�UHTXLUHG�WR�EULQJ�WKH�&O\GH�WR�*RRG�(QYLURQPHQWDO�6WDWXV�E\������E\�WKH�0DULQH�6WUDWHJ\�)UDPHZRUN�'LUHFWLYH��&XUUHQWO\�WKH�&O\GH�ZRXOG�FHUWDLQO\�IDLO�WHVWV�VXFK�DV�WKH�/DUJH�)LVK�,QGLFDWRU��DQG�PHDVXUHV�RI�ELRGLYHUVLW\�KHDOWK��$�UHVWRUHG�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP�FRXOG�EULQJ�PDUNHW�DGYDQWDJHV�WR�WKH�ILVKLQJ�LQGXVWU\��WKURXJK�HFRODEHOOLQJ�DQG�KHDGOLQH�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�DFKLHYHPHQWV��+RZHYHU��ILVKLQJ�VHFWRUV�ZLOO�KDYH�WR�ZRUN�WRJHWKHU�LQ�DQ�RSHQ�DQG�WUDQVSDUHQW�ZD\��7KH�DOORFDWLRQ�RI�EODPH�LV�DQ�HQWLUHO\�ZDVWHIXO�DFWLYLW\��&RQVHUYDWLRQLVWV�PXVW�DOVR�DFFHSW�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�LV�QRW�D�SULVWLQH�HFRV\VWHP�DQG�QHYHU�ZLOO�EH��,W�LV�KHDYLO\�XVHG�E\�VRFLHW\�IRU�PDQ\�OHJLWLPDWH�SXUSRVHV��RI�ZKLFK�IRRG�H[WUDFWLRQ�LV�RQH��)RFXV�PXVW�DOZD\V�EH�RQ�WKH�EHVW�ZD\�IRUZDUG�IRU�DOO��&RPSURPLVHV�ZLOO�EH�SRVVLEOH�LI�DOO�VWDNHKROGHUV�DSSURDFK�WKH�FKDOOHQJHV�LQ�D�FRQVWUXFWLYH�ZD\����

���� $�0DQDJHPHQW�'DWD�7RRO��*ULGGHG�GDWD�VHWV��ZLWK�D����P�E\����P�UHVROXWLRQ��RI�GHSWK��VHGLPHQW�W\SH�DQG�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�KDYH�EHHQ�FUHDWHG�IRU�WKH�&O\GH���7KHVH�GDWD�VHWV�SURYLGH�WKH�IROORZLQJ�LQIRUPDWLRQ����'HSWKV�DQG�9ROXPHV��

6SDWLDO�'RPDLQ�

6XUIDFH�$UHD���NP���

6XUIDFH�$UHD������

9ROXPH��

�NP���

0HDQ�'HSWK��P��

0D[���'HSWK��P��

0LQ��'HSWK��P��

1R��RI�9DOLG�*ULG�3RLQWV�

&O\GH�6HD� ����� ����� ���� ������ ���� �� �������&RDVW�WR���QP� ����� ���� ��� ������ ���� �� ������&RDVW�WR���QP� ����� ���� ��� ������ ���� �� ������&RDVW�WR���QP� ����� ���� ���� ������ ���� �� �������+HQFH�IURP�WKHVH�ILJXUHV�ZH�FDQ�VHH�WKDW��RI�WKH������NP��RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�����������DQG�����OLHV�ZLWKLQ���QP���QP�DQG��QP�IURP�WKH�FRDVW�UHVSHFWLYHO\��E\�DUHD����+DELWDW�7\SHV��

Page 21: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

� *UDYHO� 6DQG� 0XG�6SDWLDO�'RPDLQ�

6XUIDFH�$UHD���NP���

���RI�&O\GH�7RWDO�

6XUIDFH�$UHD���NP���

���RI�&O\GH�7RWDO�

6XUIDFH�$UHD���NP���

���RI�&O\GH�7RWDO�

&O\GH�6HD� ���� ���� ����� ���� ���� ����&RDVW�WR���QP� ���� ��� ���� ��� ���� ���&RDVW�WR���QP� ���� ��� ����� ��� ���� ���&RDVW�WR���QP� ���� ��� ����� ��� ���� ����)URP�WKHVH�ILJXUHV�ZH�FDQ�VHH�WKDW����������DQG�����RI�DOO�&O\GH�JUDYHOO\��VDQG\�DQG�PXGG\�VHGLPHQWV��UHVSHFWLYHO\��OLH�ZLWKLQ��QP�IURP�WKH�FRDVW��6LPLODU�ILJXUHV�DUH�SUHVHQWHG�IRU�WKH��QP�DQG��QP�]RQHV���,Q�WRWDO��XVLQJ������906�DQG�),1�GDWD�����YHVVHOV�ZHUH�IRXQG�ZKLFK�ODQGHG�1HSKURSV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��DQG����ODQGHG�VFDOORSV����)LVKLQJ�$FWLYLW\��,Q�UHODWLRQ�WR�SRVVLEOH�VSDWLDO�PDQDJHPHQW�PHDVXUHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��D�VXPPDU\�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�RI�WKH�IROORZLQJ�W\SH�PD\�EH�RI�UHOHYDQFH���

� +RXUV� 3HUFHQWDJH�$OO�

&O\GH�6HD�

�+RXUV��

&RDVW�WR�

��QP��+RXUV��

&RDVW�WR�

��QP��+RXUV��

&RDVW�WR�

��QP��+RXUV��

$OO�&O\GH�6HD�����

&RDVW�WR�

��QP�����

&RDVW�WR�

��QP�����

&RDVW�WR�

��QP�����

$//� ������� ������� ������� ������� ���� ��� ��� ���1(3� ������� ������� ������� ������� ���� ��� ��� ���6&/� ������ ���� ���� ������ ���� ��� ��� ���+$'� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ��� ��� ���&2'� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ��� ��� ����)URP�WKHVH�ILJXUHV�ZH�FDQ�VHH�WKDW�RI�WKH�WRWDO��������ILVKLQJ�KRXUV�WKDW�WRRN�SODFH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�LQ��������������KRXUV�������UHVXOWHG�LQ�D�ODQGLQJ�RI�1HSKURSV�������������KRXUV�ODQGHG�VFDOORSV�DQG�MXVW�����KRXUV�DQG����KRXUV�ODQGHG�KDGGRFN�RU�FRG�UHVSHFWLYHO\��PRVW�SUREDEO\�DV�E\�FDWFK�LQ�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\��+HQFH�WKH����ERDWV�ZKLFK�ODQGHG�1HSKURSV�IURP�WKH�&O\GH�LQ������VSHQW�RQ�DYHUDJH�����KRXUV�ILVKLQJ�WKURXJK�WKH�\HDU��DQG�WKH����VFDOORS�YHVVHOV�VSHQW��RQ�DYHUDJH������KRXUV���,Q�WHUPV�RI�ZKHUH�ILVKLQJ�WDNHV�SODFH��RI�WKH�WRWDO��������ILVKLQJ�KRXUV�RI�����������RFFXUUHG�ZLWKLQ���QP�IURP�D�FRDVWOLQH������ZLWKLQ���QP�DQG�����ZLWKLQ���QP��7KHUHIRUH�����RI�WKH�WRWDO�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�RFFXUUHG�RXWZLWK���QP�IURP�D�FRDVW��7KLV�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�LV�YLUWXDOO\�LGHQWLFDO�IRU�ILVKLQJ�ZKLFK�ODQGHG�1HSKURSV��ZKLOH�LW�LV�GLIIHUHQW�IRU�ILVKLQJ�ZKLFK�ODQGHG�VFDOORSV��+HUH�����������DQG�����RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�RFFXUUHG���QP����QP�DQG���QP�IURP�D�FRDVW�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD���,W�LV�FOHDU�IURP�WKH�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�PDSV�WKDW�LW�LV�JRYHUQHG�E\�WKH�KDELWDW�W\SHV�ZKLFK�IDYRXU�WKH�GLIIHUHQW�VSHFLHV��%RDWV�ODQGLQJ�1HSKURSV�SULQFLSDOO\�WDUJHW�WKH�DUHDV�ZKHUH�PXGG\�VHGLPHQWV�SUHGRPLQDWH��SULQFLSDOO\�WKH�GHHS�EDVLQV�RI�WKH�&O\GH��ZKHUHDV�YHVVHOV�ODQGLQJ�VFDOORSV�WDUJHW�WKH�KDUGHU�VHGLPHQWV�IRXQG�DURXQG�WKH�VKDOORZHU�SHULSKHU\�RI�WKH�&O\GH�DV�ZHOO�DV�RQ�WKH�*UHDW�3ODWHDX��7KH�WDEOH�EHORZ�FRPSDUHV�WKH�SHUFHQWDJH�RI�HDFK�VHGLPHQW�W\SH�WR�WKH�SHUFHQWDJH�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�LQ�HDFK�RI�WKH�VSDWLDO�]RQHV���

Page 22: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

�6SDWLDO�'RPDLQ�

*UDYHO� 6DQG� 6FDOORSV� 0XG� Nephrops���

�RI�&O\GH�7RWDO�

���RI�&O\GH�7RWDO�

��RI�

)LVKLQJ�$FWLYLW\�

���RI�&O\GH�7RWDO�

��RI�

)LVKLQJ�$FWLYLW\�

&RDVW�WR���QP� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���&RDVW�WR���QP� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���&RDVW�WR���QP� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���

�)RU�1HSKURSV�WKH�SHUFHQWDJHV�RI�PXGG\�VHGLPHQW�DQG�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�ZLWKLQ�WKH�WKUHH�VSDWLDO�]RQHV�RI��QP���QP�DQG��QP�DUH�FRPSDUDEOH��+RZHYHU��IRU�VFDOORSV�WKH�SHUFHQWDJH�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�RXWZLWK�WKH��QP�]RQH�VHHPV�H[FHVVLYHO\�ODUJH��7KLV�PXVW�WDNH�SODFH�SUHGRPLQDQWO\�RQ�WKH�3ODWHDX��)XUWKHU�LQYHVWLJDWLRQV�RI�WKLV�DQRPDO\�DUH�XQGHUZD\����6XPPDU\��7KH�DQDO\VLV�RI�906�GDWD��LQ�FRQMXQFWLRQ�ZLWK�WKH�RWKHU�GDWD�OD\HUV�LQ�WKH�&0(0�GDWDEDVHV��VKRZV�KRZ�XVHIXO�WKLV�GDWD�FDQ�EH�WR�GHVFULEH�WKH�FXUUHQW�ILVKLQJ�SUDFWLFHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�DQG�WR�HYDOXDWH�GLIIHUHQW�PDQDJHPHQW�RSWLRQV��+RZHYHU��PRUH�FDQ�EH�GRQH���,W�LV�SRVVLEOH�WR�OLQN�DFWXDO�ODQGLQJV�WR�906�SLQJV�LI�LW�LV�DVVXPHG�HDFK�FDWFK�LV�HYHQO\�GLVWULEXWHG�DORQJ�WKH�YHVVHOV�ILVKLQJ�SDWK��7KLV�ZRXOG�DOORZ�VXPPDULHV�DV�DERYH�IRU�VSDWLDO�PHDVXUHV�LQ�WHUPV�RI�ZHLJKW��DQG�KHQFH�YDOXH��RI�ODQGLQJV�SHU�VSHFLHV�SHU�PDQDJHPHQW�DUHD���+HUH�ZH�KDYH�DQDO\VHG�WKH�\HDU������DV�WKH�PRVW�UHFHQW�IXOO�\HDU�RI�GDWD�DYDLODEOH�WR�WKLV�VWXG\��+RZHYHU��HDUOLHU�\HDUV�DQG�WKH�PRUH�UHFHQW�GDWD�FDQ�EH�DGGHG�WR�ORRN�DW�FKDQJHV�RYHU�WLPH��6LPLODUO\�VHDVRQDO�SDWWHUQV�RI�ILVKLQJ�FRXOG�EH�H[DPLQHG���6LPSOH�VSDWLDO�PHDVXUHV�LQYROYLQJ�VHW�GLVWDQFHV�IURP�WKH�VKRUH�KDYH�EHHQ�H[DPLQHG�KHUH��+RZHYHU��&0(0�FRXOG�EH�XVHG�WR�GHYHORS�PRUH�FRPSOH[�VSDWLDO�PDQDJHPHQW�PHDVXUHV�EDVHG�RQ��IRU�H[DPSOH��KDELWDW�W\SH��7HPSRUDO�FORVXUHV�FRXOG�DOVR�EH�H[DPLQHG�LQ�DGGLWLRQ�WR�VSDWLDO�RQHV���$�ZDUQLQJ�VKRXOG��KRZHYHU��EH�VRXQGHG��7KH�HIIHFWV�RI�WKH�GLVSODFHPHQW�RI�ILVKLQJ�KDYH�QRW�EHHQ�WRXFKHG�XSRQ�KHUH��)LVKHUV�EHKDYLRXU�IDFHG�ZLWK�FORVXUHV�QHHGV�WR�EH�FRQVLGHUHG��DQG�WKH�LPSDFW�RI�GLVSODFHG�ILVKLQJ�HIIRUW�RQ�RWKHU�DUHDV�DQG�KDELWDWV�HYDOXDWHG���7KH�DQDO\VLV�SUHVHQWHG�KHUH�RQO\�XVHV�GDWD�IURP�WKRVH�YHVVHOV�ZLWK�906�V\VWHPV�LQVWDOOHG��L�H��!��P�LQ�OHQJWK��'DWD�IURP�VPDOOHU�YHVVHOV�QHHGV�WR�EH�FROOHFWHG�DQG�DQDO\VHG�XVLQJ�&0(0���

���� 6XJJHVWLRQV�IRU�)XWXUH�:RUN�������� &O\GH�+\GURG\QDPLF�0RGHO��7KH�SK\VLFDO�HQYLURQPHQW�RI�WKH�&O\GH�LV�GHWHUPLQHG�E\�ZDWHU�PRYHPHQWV�GULYHQ�E\�WLGH��ZLQG�DQG�GHQVLW\�UHODWHG�IRUFHV�DULVLQJ�IURP�WKH�LQSXW�RI�IUHVKZDWHU�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH��$GGLWLRQDO�ZDWHU�PRYHPHQW�LV�GULYHQ�E\�WKH�HIIHFW�RI�VXUIDFH�ZDYHV��1XPHURXV�K\GURG\QDPLF�PRGHOV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�KDYH�EHHQ�FRQVWUXFWHG��+RZHYHU��DV�WKH�SK\VLFDO�HQYLURQPHQW�LV�FULWLFDO�LQ�GHWHUPLQLQJ�WKH�ORFDWLRQ�DQG�SRVVLEOH�KHDOWK�RI�NH\�VHD�EHG�KDELWDWV�VXFK�DV�PDHUO�EHGV��WKHUH�LV�D�QHHG�QRZ�IRU�D�VWDWH�RI�WKH�DUW�ILQH�UHVROXWLRQ��H�J�����P��

Page 23: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

WKUHH�GLPHQVLRQDO�K\GURG\QDPLF�PRGHO�XVLQJ�PRGHUQ�PRGHOOLQJ�WHFKQRORJ\�VXFK�DV�WKH�)�9&20�DSSURDFK��������� &O\GH�(FRV\VWHP�0RGHO��7KH�SLFWXUH�SUHVHQWHG�KHUH�RI�D�SURGXFWLYH�EDVH�RI�WKH�IRRG�ZHE�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�TXDOLWDWLYH�RQO\��$OWKRXJK�WKHUH�KDYH�EHHQ�QXPHURXV�LQGLYLGXDO�VWXGLHV�RI�DVSHFWV�RI�WKH�IRRG�ZHE�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��QR�RQH�TXDQWLWDWLYH�RYHUDOO�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�WKH�SRVW�LQGXVWULDO��SDUWLFXODUO\�DIWHU�WKH�FHVVDWLRQ�RI�WKH�XVH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�IRU�VHZDJH�GLVSRVDO�DQG�WKH�LQFOXVLRQ�RI�WKH�FXUUHQW�HIIHFWV�RI�FOLPDWH�FKDQJH��HFRV\VWHP�SURGXFWLYLW\�LV�DYDLODEOH��7KH�EHVW�ZD\�WR�LQWHJUDWH�WKH�SK\VLFV��FKHPLVWU\�DQG�ELRORJ\�GULYLQJ�WKH�&O\GH�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHP�LQ�D�TXDQWLILDEOH�ZD\�LV�E\�HVWDEOLVKLQJ�DQ�HFRV\VWHP�PRGHO�RI�WKH�&O\GH��6RPH�DOUHDG\�H[LVW��DOWKRXJK�H[LVWLQJ�PRGHOV�HDFK�KDYH�SDUWLFXODU�OLPLWDWLRQV�DQG�IRFXVVHG�XVHV��:KHQ�DVVHPEOLQJ�VXFK�D�PRGHO��FULWLFDO�SDUDPHWHUV�ZLOO�EH�XQDYDLODEOH�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�DQG�WKLV�ZLOO�GLUHFW�REVHUYDWLRQV�DQG�H[SHULPHQWV���$Q�RYHUDOO�HFRV\VWHP�PRGHO�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�LV�QHHGHG��ZKHWKHU�VSDWLDOO\�UHVROYHG�RU�VLPSO\�D�VXE�EDVLQ�VFDOH�ER[�W\SH�PRGHO��H�J��EDVHG�RQ�DQ�HFRSDWK�W\SH�DSSURDFK���WKURXJK�ZKLFK�VFLHQWLILF�FRQVHQVXV�FDQ�EH�DFKLHYHG�FRQFHUQLQJ�WKH�KHDOWK�DQG�SURGXFWLYLW\�RI�WKH�&O\GH�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHP��������� &O\GH�,QVKRUH�%HQWKLF�6XUYH\��7KHUH�LV�PXFK�FRQFHUQ�RYHU�LQVKRUH�EHQWKLF�KDELWDWV��HVSHFLDOO\�WKRVH�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�PDHUO�EHGV��,W�LV�HVWLPDWHG�KHUH�WKDW�����RI�WKH�VHD�EHG�RI�WKH�&O\GH�PLJKW�EH�DEOH�WR�VXSSRUW�OLYLQJ�PDHUO��DOWKRXJK�WKH�ILJXUH�PD\�EH�VPDOOHU�RZLQJ�WR�FRQVWUDLQWV�VXFK�DV�ZDWHU�IORZ�DQG�H[SRVXUH��0RVW�RI�WKHVH�SRWHQWLDO�VLWHV�DUH�ZLWKLQ�WKH���QP�]RQH�IURP�WKH�FRDVW��,Q�WKLV�]RQH�WKH�H[LVWLQJ�GDWD�VHWV�RI�VHD�EHG�W\SH��DQG�DOVR�ZDWHU�GHSWK��PD\�EH�PRVW�LQ�HUURU��$�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�JURXQG�GHWHUPLQLQJ�DFRXVWLF�VXUYH\��ZLWK�DVVRFLDWHG�YDOLGDWLRQ�XVLQJ�GLUHFW�DQG�LQGLUHFW�VDPSOLQJ�PHWKRGV��LV�QHHGHG�RI�WKH�&O\GH���QP�]RQH�DQG�ZDWHUV�RXW�WR�WKH���P�GHSWK�FRQWRXU��������� &O\GH�±�DQ�06)'�'HYHORSPHQW�$UHD"��$V�(XURSH��WKH�8.�DQG�6FRWODQG�SUHSDUHV�WR�LPSOHPHQW�WKH�0DULQH�6WUDWHJ\�)UDPHZRUN�'LUHFWLYH��WKH�&O\GH�6HD�RIIHUV�D�SRWHQWLDOO\�H[FLWLQJ�WHVW�DUHD��ZKHUH�LQGLFDWRUV�DQG�WDUJHWV�GHVFULELQJ�*RRG�(QYLURQPHQWDO�6WDWXV��*(6��FRXOG�EH�GHYHORSHG��DQ�LQWHJUDWHG�HFRV\VWHP�PRQLWRULQJ�VFKHPH�GHYLVHG�LQYROYLQJ�FURVV�RUJDQLVDWLRQDO�ZRUNLQJ��L�H��0DULQH�6FRWODQG��6(3$��61+��DQG�D�VHULHV�RI�PDQDJHPHQW�PHDVXUHV�LPSOHPHQWHG�WR�WDNH�WKH�&O\GH�WRZDUGV�*(6�E\�WKH�WDUJHW�GDWH�RI�������7KH�&O\GH�RIIHUV��D�SUDJPDWLF�VFDOH��D�VROHO\�QDWLRQDO�PDQDJHPHQW�UHJLPH��D�YDULHG�PL[�RI�VWDWXV�DQG�SUHVVXUHV��GLYHUVH�KDELWDWV��D�UHSUHVHQWDWLYH�UDQJH�RI�VWDNHKROGHUV��������� &O\GH�3HODJLF�)LVK�6WRFN�$FRXVWLF�6XUYH\����,Q�RUGHU�WR�HVWLPDWH�WKH�FXUUHQW�DEXQGDQFH�DQG�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�KHUULQJ�DQG�VSUDW�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��D�ILVKHULHV�DFRXVWLF�VXUYH\�VKRXOG�EH�FRQGXFWHG��XVLQJ�D�PXOWL�IUHTXHQF\�VFLHQWLILF�HFKRVRXQGHU�DQG�D�SHODJLF�WUDZO�IRU�YDOLGDWLRQ��7KH�VXUYH\�VKRXOG�LQFOXGH�DOO�DUHDV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��DV�FORVH�LQVKRUH�DV�LV�SRVVLEOH�WR�QDYLJDWH�WKH�VXUYH\�YHVVHO��DQG�LQFOXGH�WKH�PDMRU�ORFK�DUHDV��.\OHV�RI�%XWH��/RFK�)\QH��/RFK�6WULYHQ��/RFK�5\DQ��DQG�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\��WR�3RUW�*ODVJRZ���7KLV�VXUYH\�VKRXOG�UHVXOW�LQ�HVWLPDWHV�RI�DEXQGDQFH�DW�DJH�IRU�KHUULQJ�DQG�VSUDW��DQG�PDSV�RI�WKHLU�GLVWULEXWLRQ��������� &O\GH�'HPHUVDO�)LVK�6XUYH\��

Page 24: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

$�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�VXUYH\�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�UHTXLUHG��LQFOXGLQJ�VPDOO�ILVK��7KH�VXUYH\�VKRXOG�LQFOXGH�D�IRFXV�RQ�WKH�VH[XDOO�PDWXULW\�DQG�VWRFN�LGHQWLILFDWLRQ�RI�ZKLWLQJ��7KH�VXUYH\�FRXOG�EH�DFFRPSDQLHG�E\�LQFUHDVHG�REVHUYDWLRQV�RI�WKH�GLVFDUGV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�LQ�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\��������� ,PSURYLQJ�WKH�&O\GH�0DQDJHPHQW�(YDOXDWLRQ�0RGHO��&0(0�QHHGV�WR�EH�IXUWKHU�GHYHORSHG��'DWD�VHWV�RI�KDELWDW�W\SH�FDQ�EH�LPSURYHG�XVLQJ�ILQHU�VFDOH�VXUYH\V��DQG�DGGLWLRQDO�HQYLURQPHQWDO�SDUDPHWHUV�VXFK�DV�VHD�EHG�WHPSHUDWXUH�DQG�VHD�EHG�ZDWHU�IORZ�FRXOG�EH�DGGHG��0RUH�\HDUV�RI�906�GDWD�QHHG�WR�EH�LQFOXGHG��6HDVRQDO�SDWWHUQV�RI�ILVKLQJ�FDQ�EH�H[DPLQHG��/DQGLQJV��E\�VSHFLHV�DQG�JHDU�W\SH��IURP�HDFK�JULG�VTXDUH��DV�ZHOO�DV�YDOXH�RI�ODQGLQJV��FDQ�EH�HVWLPDWHG�XVLQJ�YDULRXV�PHWKRGV�GHYHORSHG�DW�066��$�JODULQJ�ODFN�FXUUHQWO\�LV�LQIRUPDWLRQ�RQ�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�E\�FUHHO�ERDWV��DV�ZHOO�DV�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�E\�DOO�YHVVHOV�VPDOOHU�WKDQ���P��7KLV�FRXOG�EH�SURYLGHG�E\�DQ�LQWHUYLHZ�EDVHG�GDWD�JDWKHULQJ�H[HUFLVH��H�J��6FRW0DS��$�0F/D\�SHUV��FRPP���������

Page 25: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

���� 1B,1752'8&7,21��������� $Q�(FRORJLFDO�'HVHUW���7KXUVWRQ�DQG�5REHUWV���������,Q�-XO\������D�VFLHQWLILF�SDSHU�DXWKRUHG�E\�UHVHDUFKHUV�IURP�<RUN�8QLYHUVLW\�ZDV�SXEOLVKHG��HQWLWOHG��

�(FRORJLFDO�0HOWGRZQ�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��6FRWODQG��7ZR�&HQWXULHV�RI�&KDQJH�LQ�D�&RDVWDO�0DULQH�(FRV\VWHP��

�7KXUVWRQ�DQG�5REHUWV���������

7KLV�VWLPXODWHG�LPPHGLDWH�PHGLD�LQWHUHVW��*ODVJRZ�+HUDOG�DQG�6XQGD\�7LPHV�DUWLFOHV��5DGLR���OLYH��DQG�D�%%&�3DQRUDPD�SURJUDPPH�LQ�$XJXVW��1HZVSDSHU�KHDGOLQHV�DW�WKH�WLPH�LQFOXGHG���

&O\GH�FOHDQHG�RXW�WR�EHFRPH�PDULQH�GHVHUW��7KH�6XQGD\�7LPHV�����-XO\��������

&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP�LQ�PHOWGRZQ��7KH�+HUDOG�����-XO\��������

5HSRUW�ZDUQV�&O\GH�LV�ILVKHG�RXW��*ODVJRZ�(YHQLQJ�7LPHV�����-XO\��������6XEVHTXHQWO\�WKH�6FRWWLVK�*RYHUQPHQW�KHOG�YDULRXV�PHHWLQJV�ZLWK�ORFDO�VWDNHKROGHUV�DURXQG�WKH�&O\GH�WR�GLVFXVV�WKH�LPSOLFDWLRQV�RI�WKH�SXEOLVKHG�VWXG\��)ROORZLQJ�WKHVH�LQLWLDO�PHHWLQJV��RQ�WKH���2FWREHU�������DW�WKH�$UGRH�+RXVH�+RWHO�QHDU�$EHUGHHQ��0U�5LFKDUG�/RFKKHDG��&DELQHW�6HFUHWDU\�IRU�5XUDO�$IIDLUV�DQG�WKH�(QYLURQPHQW��PHW�ZLWK�VFLHQWLVWV�IURP�0DULQH�6FRWODQG�6FLHQFH��066��LQ�RUGHU�WR�GLVFXVV�SRVVLEOH�DYHQXHV�RI�UHVHDUFK�LQWR�WKH�FRQGLWLRQV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�HFRV\VWHP��$W�WKDW�WLPH�LW�ZDV�FRQVLGHUHG�WRR�HDUO\�WR�FRPPLVVLRQ�H[WHUQDOO\�FRQWUDFWHG�ZRUN��,QVWHDG�066�ZHUH�DVNHG�WR�FDUU\�RXW�DQ�LQLWLDO�LQWHUQDO�UHYLHZ�DQG�SURSRVH�D�ZD\�IRUZDUG���)ROORZLQJ�WKH�PHHWLQJ�066�VFLHQWLVWV�FRPPHQFHG�DQ�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�WKH�ZRUN�QHHGHG�DQG�D�FROODWLRQ�RI�DYDLODEOH�GDWD�VHWV��$�SULQFLSDO�UHOHYDQW�GDWD�VHW�LGHQWLILHG�ZDV�WKDW�GHULYHG�IURP�WKH�FDWFKHV�UHFRUGHG�GXULQJ�UHVHDUFK�YHVVHO�VXUYH\V�ZKLFK�0DULQH�6FRWODQG�6FLHQFH��DQG�LWV�SUHGHFHVVRUV�DW�WKH�0DULQH�/DERUDWRU\�$EHUGHHQ��KDYH�FDUULHG�RXW�VLQFH�WKH�����V��+RZHYHU��DW�WKDW�WLPH�QR�VWDII�UHVRXUFH�ZDV�LPPHGLDWHO\�DYDLODEOH�WR�FRPSOHWH�WKH�ZRUN�QHHGHG�DQG�D�UHFUXLWPHQW�SURFHVV�FRPPHQFHG�ZKLFK�UHVXOWHG�LQ�WKH�DSSRLQWPHQW�RI�D�WHPSRUDU\�UHVHDUFKHU��0V�)LRQD�0F,QWU\UH��RQ�DQ����PRQWK�FRQWUDFW��0V�0F,QW\UH�FRPPHQFHG�ZRUN�RQ����-DQXDU\������VXSHUYLVHG�E\�'U�3DXO�)HUQDQGHV���������� $�&KDQJHG�(FRV\VWHP���+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV���������,QGHSHQGHQWO\�IURP�WKH�SURFHVV�XQGHUZD\�ZLWKLQ�0DULQH�6FRWODQG��WKH�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�6WUDWKFO\GH�DOVR�FRPPHQFHG�ZRUN�RQ�WKH�LVVXH�RI�WKH�HFRORJLFDO�VWDWXV�RI�WKH�&O\GH��:KLOH�7KXUVWRQ�DQG�5REHUWV��������UHOLHG�HQWLUHO\�RQ�ODQGLQJV�GDWD��3URIHVVRU�0LNH�+HDWK�RI�WKH�8QLYHUVLW\�RI�6WUDWKFO\GH�FRQWDFWHG�0DULQH�6FRWODQG�6FLHQFH�WR�UHTXHVW�WKH�UHVHDUFK�YHVVHO�VXUYH\�GDWD�QRWHG�DERYH��7KLV�ZDV�SURYLGHG��DQG�DV�D�UHVXOW�RI�D�GHWDLOHG�DQG�ZHOO�IRXQG�DQDO\VLV��LQ�-XO\������3URIHVVRU�+HDWK�SXEOLVKHG�D�GHILQLWLYH�DQDO\VLV�RI�WKH�SUHVHQW�VWDWH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\�LQ�KLV�SDSHU��ZLWK�'U�'RXJ�6SHLUV��HQWLWOHG����

Page 26: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

&KDQJHV�LQ�VSHFLHV�GLYHUVLW\�DQG�VL]H�FRPSRVLWLRQ�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\�������������

�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV��������

�$OWKRXJK�D�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�VWDWHPHQW�RQ�WKH�VWDWXV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP��WKLV�SDSHU�GLG�QRW�DWWUDFW�WKH�PHGLD�DWWHQWLRQ�UHFHLYHG�E\�7KXUVWRQ�DQG�5REHUWV���������7KLV��XQIRUWXQDWHO\��UHIOHFWV�WKH�QDWXUH�RI�KRZ�VFLHQFH�LV�FRYHUHG�LQ�WRGD\¶V�PHGLD��ZKLFK�LQ�PDQ\�LQVWDQFHV�DSSHDUV�DJHQGD�GULYHQ�UDWKHU�WKDQ�UHSUHVHQWLQJ�REMHFWLYH�UHSRUWLQJ�RI�VFLHQWLILF�SURJUHVV���7KH�FRQFOXVLRQV�RI�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV���������DOWKRXJK�H[SUHVVHG�LQ�OHVV�HPRWLYH�WHUPV�WKDQ�7KXUVWRQ�DQG�5REHUWV���������QHYHUWKHOHVV�SRLQW�WR�D�PDMRU�HFRORJLFDO�LPSDFW�RI�ILVKLQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��7KH�SLFWXUH�SRUWUD\HG�E\�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV�LV�QRW�RQH�RI�DQ�HFRORJLFDO�GHVHUW��EXW�RI�DQ�DOWHUHG�HFRV\VWHP��7KHLU�SULQFLSDO�FRQFOXVLRQV�ZHUH���

��UDWKHU�WKDQ�FRPPHUFLDO�VSHFLHV�EHLQJ�HQWLUHO\�UHPRYHG�IURP�WKH�&O\GH��WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�WKH�VL[�PDLQ�FRPPHUFLDO�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�ODWH�����V�ZDV�DSSUR[LPDWHO\�GRXEOH�WKDW�SULRU�WR�WKH�RQVHW�RI�WUDZOLQJ�LQ�WKH�����V�����KRZHYHU��WKH�VL]H�VWUXFWXUHV�RI�WKHVH�VSHFLHV�ZHUH�GUDPDWLFDOO\�GLIIHUHQW��EHLQJ�PDUNHGO\�GHILFLHQW�LQ�ODUJH�FRPPHUFLDOO\�PDUNHWDEOH�LQGLYLGXDOV�DIWHU�WKH�SHULRG�RI�SHDN�KDUYHVWLQJ�UDWHV�LQ�WKH�����V����DOVR�WKH�LQFLGHQFH�RI�VSHFLHV�ZLWK�D�PD[LPXP�DWWDLQDEOH�OHQJWK�JUHDWHU�WKDQ����FP�GHFOLQHG�SUHFLSLWRXVO\�DQG�GLG�QRW�UHFRYHU�GXULQJ�WKH�SHULRG�RI�ORZ�KDUYHVWLQJ�UDWHV�DIWHU�WKH�ODWH�����V�SRVVLEO\�RZLQJ�WR�LQWHUQDO�SUHGDWRU±SUH\�LQWHUDFWLRQV��

�7KLV�PHDQV�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�VWLOO�IXQFWLRQV�DV�DQ�HFRV\VWHP��3ULPDU\�SURGXFWLRQ�VWLOO�RFFXUV��SRZHUHG�E\�WKH�VXQ�DQG�VXSSOLHG�E\�ZDWHU�ERUQH�QXWULHQWV��ZKLFK�VXVWDLQV�VHFRQGDU\�]RRSODQNWRQ�SURGXFWLRQ��ZKLFK�LQ�WXUQ�IHHGV�DQ�DFWLYH�IRRG�ZHE��7KH�&O\GH�LV�QRW�DQ�HFRORJLFDO�GHVHUW���+RZHYHU��WKH�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP�KDV�EHHQ�FKDQJHG��7KH�ELRPDVV�RI�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�WKH�VDPH��RU�IRU�VRPH�VSHFLHV�PRUH��WKDQ�ZKHQ�LQWHQVLYH�ILVKLQJ�VWDUWHG��$GGLWLRQDOO\��D�ODUJH�DQG�KHDOWK\�SRSXODWLRQ�RI�VKHOOILVK��1HSKURSV��OLYLQJ�RQ�WKH�VHD�EHG�RI�WKH�&O\GH�LV�SUHVHQW��+RZHYHU��WKH�FRPPXQLW\�RI�ILVK�LV�QRZ�PDGH�XS�PRVWO\�RI�VPDOO�ILVK��DQG�PRVWO\�VPDOO�ZKLWLQJ��,I�ZH�ZHUH�WR�VHHN�D�WHUUHVWULDO�DQDORJ\�LW�ZRXOG�QRW�EH�WKDW�RI�D�GHVHUW��5DWKHU�LW�PLJKW�EH�WKDW�RI�XVHG�DJULFXOWXUDO�ODQG�LQ�QHHG�RI�UHVWRUDWLRQ��&RPSDULQJ�WKH�&O\GH�WR�DQ�HFRV\VWHP�PRGLILHG�E\�KXPDQ�XVH�\HW�FDSDEOH�RI�UHVWRUDWLRQ�SRUWUD\V�D�PXFK�OHVV�QHZV�ZRUWK\�LPDJH�WKDQ�DQ�HFRORJLFDO�GHVHUW���7KH�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP�LV�RQH�WKDW�KDV�EHHQ�XVHG�E\�KXPDQV�IRU�FHQWXULHV��DQG�KHQFH�LW�LV�FKDQJHG��%XW�KXPDQV�FDQ�DOVR�QRZ�LQIOXHQFH�WKH�GLUHFWLRQ�WKH�HFRV\VWHP�WDNHV�E\�PDQDJLQJ�KXPDQ�DFWLYLWLHV�LQ�WKH�IXWXUH��SUHFLVHO\�EHFDXVH�WKH�&O\GH�LV�QRW�DQ�HFRORJLFDO�GHVHUW��EXW�LV�DQ�DFWLYH�HFRV\VWHP�ZLWK�JUHDW�SRWHQWLDO�IRU�IXWXUH�VXVWDLQDEOH�XVH���������� 7KLV�5HSRUW��:LWK�WKH�SXEOLFDWLRQ�RI�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV���������WKH�UROH�RI�WKLV�UHSRUW�FKDQJHG��6LJQLILFDQW�VWDII�FKDQJHV�GXULQJ�WKH�OLIH�RI�WKH�SURMHFW�KDYH�UHVXOWHG�LQ�DGGLWLRQDO�FKDQJHV�WR�WKH�GLUHFWLRQ�DQG�WLPLQJ�RI�WKLV�ZRUN��DV�ERWK�'U�3DXO�)HUQDQGHV�DQG�0V�)LRQD�0F,QW\UH�OHIW�WR�SXUVXH�DFDGHPLF�FDUHHUV���

Page 27: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

+HQFH�WKLV�UHSRUW�QRZ�KDV�WKH�IROORZLQJ�REMHFWLYHV������7R�SUHVHQW�D�EULHI�UHYLHZ�RI�SUHYLRXVO\�SXEOLVKHG�LQIRUPDWLRQ�DQG�NQRZOHGJH�FRQFHUQLQJ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP������7R�SUHVHQW�WKH�ILQGLQJV�RI�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV��������LQ�D�IRUPDW�DFFHVVLEOH�WR�VWDNHKROGHUV�DQG�PDQDJHUV������7R�SURSRVH�D�GDWD�WRRO�ZKLFK�PD\�KHOS�LQIRUP�IXWXUH�PDQDJHPHQW�RSWLRQV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH������7R�PDNH�VXJJHVWLRQV�IRU�IXUWKHU�VWXGLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�UHTXLUHG�LQ�RUGHU�WR�VXSSRUW�VXVWDLQDEOH�XVH�RI�WKLV�DFWLYH�6FRWWLVK�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHP��,Q�VRPH�UHVSHFWV�WKLV�UHSRUW�PDUNV�WKH�VWDUW�RI�D�SURFHVV��UDWKHU�WKDQ�WKH�FRQFOXVLRQ�RI�RQH��,W�SRVHV�PRUH�TXHVWLRQV�WKDQ�LW�DQVZHUV��DQG�SUHVHQWV�SUHOLPLQDU\�DQDO\VLV�RI�D�QHZ�GDWD�VHW�WKDW�UHTXLUHV�IXUWKHU�YDOLGDWLRQ��FKHFNLQJ�DQG�H[SDQVLRQ���+RZHYHU��LW�SURYLGHV�D�VWDUW�SRLQW�IURP�ZKLFK�JRYHUQPHQW�DQG�VWDNHKROGHUV�FRQFHUQHG�ZLWK�WKH�IXWXUH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�FDQ�EXLOG�XSRQ�DQG�SURJUHVV��,W�SXWV�LQWR�FRQWH[W�VRPH�VHFRQGDU\�LVVXHV�ZKLFK�PD\�FORXG�WKH�SULPDU\�IRFXV�RI�IXWXUH�ZRUN�WR�UHFRYHU�WKH�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP��KRZ�ZH�PDQDJH�ILVKHULHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��

Page 28: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

��� 2B7+(�(19,5210(17�2)�7+(�&/<'(�6($��

���� 11B'HILQLWLRQ�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��7KH�&O\GH�6HD�LV�GHILQHG�DV�WKH�PDULQH�WLGDO�H[WHQW�ZKLFK�HQFRPSDVVHV�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\�DQG�WKH�VHD�ORFKV�WR�WKH�QRUWK�RI�WKH�)LUWK�DQG�/RFK�5\DQ�LQ�WKH�VRXWK�RI�WKH�DUHD��7KH�LVODQGV�RI�%XWH��$UUDQ��$LOVD�&UDLJ�DQG�WKH�&XPEUDHV�OLH�ZLWKLQ�WKH�PDLQ�ERG\�RI�WKH�)LUWK��7KH�RXWHU�ERXQGDU\�ZKHUH�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�PHHWV�WKH�,ULVK�6HD�H[WHQGV�IURP�WKH�VRXWKHUQ�WLS�RI�WKH�0XOO�RI�.LQW\UH�WR�&RUVHZDOO�3RLQW��+DOOLGD\���������,Q�WRWDO�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�HQFRPSDVVHV�DQ�DUHD�RI������NP��DQG�KDV�D�YROXPH�RI�DSSUR[LPDWHO\�����NP����)LJXUH��������

)LJXUH�����7KH�&O\GH�6HD���GHILQHG�E\�WKH�ERXQGDU\�IURP�WKH�0XOO�RI�.LQW\UH�WR�&RUVHZDOO�3RLQW��

���� *HRORJLFDO�+LVWRU\�RI�WKH�&O\GH��7KH�IRUPDWLRQ�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DV�ZH�NQRZ�LW�WRGD\��DORQJ�ZLWK�WKH�UHVW�RI�WKH�+LJKODQGV��EHJDQ�����PLOOLRQ�\HDUV�DJR��DOO�WKH�GHVFULSWLRQ�WKDW�IROORZV�FRPHV�IURP�-DUGLQH���������,W�OD\�EHWZHHQ�D�PDMRU�ODQG�PDVV�WR�WKH�QRUWKZHVW��DQG�DQ�RFHDQ��WKH�,DSHWXV�2FHDQ��WR�WKH�VRXWKHDVW��,W�WKHQ�OD\�IDU�VRXWK�RI�WKH�HTXDWRU��2YHU�WKH�QH[W�����PLOOLRQ�\HDUV�LW�GULIWHG�QRUWKZDUGV�WR�WKH�HTXDWRU�ZLWK�WKH�PRYHPHQW�RI�WKH�FRQWLQHQWDO�SODWHV��XQGHUJRLQJ�FKDQJHV�

Page 29: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

LQ�WKH�JHRORJ\�DQG�VWUXFWXUHV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�WKH�+LJKODQG�%RXQGDU\�)DXOW��$ERXW�WKLV�WLPH�YROFDQLF�ODYDV�SURGXFHG�WKH�VWUXFWXUH�WKDW�ZRXOG�EHFRPH�WKH�*UHDW�3ODWHDX�DW�WKH�PRXWK�RI�WKH�&O\GH��)XUWKHU�FKDQJHV�RFFXUUHG�FDXVHG�E\�WKH�LPPHQVH�JHRORJLFDO�SURFHVVHV�XQGHUZD\��EXW�WKH�XQGHUO\LQJ�URFN�VWUXFWXUH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�EDVLQ�DV�LW�LV�WRGD\�ZDV�FRPSOHWH�DERXW����PLOOLRQ�\HDUV�DJR��E\�ZKLFK�WLPH�WKH�&O\GH�OD\�URXJKO\�DW�LW¶V�FXUUHQW�ODWLWXGH���'XULQJ�WKH�7HUWLDU\�SHULRG��IURP�DERXW����PLOOLRQ�\HDUV�DJR�WR���PLOOLRQ�\HDUV�DJR��WKH�&O\GH��XQGHUZHQW�QXPHURXV�HURVLRQDO�DQG�GHSRVLWLRQDO�HYHQWV��LQFOXGLQJ�ORFDO�YROFDQLVP��7KHQ�GXULQJ�WKH�4XDWHUQDU\�SHULRG��IURP���PLOOLRQ�\HDUV�DJR�WR�DERXW��������\HDUV�DJR��6FRWODQG�ZDV�FRYHUHG�E\�LFH�VKHHWV�PRUH�WKDQ����WLPHV��'XULQJ�HDFK�FRYHUDJH�RI�LFH��DQG�LQ�WKH�ZDUPHU�SHULRGV�EHWZHHQ�WKH�LFH�VKHHWV��DUHDV�ZHUH�HURGHG��VHGLPHQWV�ODLG�GRZQ��DQG�WKH�ODQG�PRYHG�YHUWLFDOO\�XS�DQG�GRZQ�RZLQJ�WR�WKH�UHPRYDO�DQG�LPSRVLWLRQ�RI�WKH�ZHLJKW�RI�WKH�LFH��$W�WKH�VDPH�WLPH�VHD�OHYHO�FKDQJHG�UHSHDWHGO\��7KXV�WKHUH�LV�D�FRPSOH[�SDWFKZRUN�RI�HURGHG�JXOOLHV�DQG�EDVLQV��GHSRVLWHG�PDULQH�DQG�ULYHULQH�VHGLPHQWV�DQG�URFN�VWUXFWXUHV�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�FXUUHQW�&O\GH�EDVLQ��ERWK�EHORZ�DQG�DERYH�SUHVHQW�VHD�OHYHO���)LQDOO\��WKH�ODVW�JODFLDO�SHULRG�RFFXUUHG��UHDFKLQJ�LW¶V�FROGHVW�DERXW��������\HDUV�DJR�DQG�HQGLQJ�DERXW��������\HDUV�DJR��$Q�DHULDO�YLHZ�RI�WKH�&O\GH�GXULQJ�WKLV�WLPH�ZRXOG�KDYH�VKRZQ�KXJH�LFH�VKHHWV�IORZLQJ�DV�JODFLHUV�DFURVV�WKH�DUHD�IURP�WKH�KLJKODQGV�ZHVWZDUGV�RXW�WR�WKH�FRQWLQHQWDO�VKHOI�HGJH��7KH�GHHS�URFN�EDVLQV�RI�.LOEUDQQDQ�6RXQG�DQG�VRXWKHDVW�$UUDQ�ZHUH�FDUYHG�RXW�GRZQ�WR����P��PXFK�GHHSHU��L�H��³RYHU�GHHSHQHG´��WKDQ�WKH�KDUG�YROFDQLF�URFN�³VLOO´�RI�WKH�*UHDW�3ODWHDX��%HWZHHQ�$UUDQ�DQG�%XWH�D�EDVLQ����P�GHHS�ZDV�FDUYHG��,W�LV�HVWLPDWHG�WKDW�WKH�DPRXQW�RI�KDUG�URFN�WKH�LFH�VKHHW�FDUYHG�DZD\�ZDV�SUREDEO\�PXFK�JUHDWHU�WKDQ�WKH�WRWDO�YROXPH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�WRGD\���$V�WKH�LFH�VKHHW�EHJDQ�WR�UHWUHDW��LW�GHSRVLWHG�³WLOO´��PDLQO\�VDQG��LQ�WKH�GHHS�EDVLQV�LW�KDG�FDUYHG�RXW��UHGXFLQJ�WKHLU�GHSWK�E\�XS�WR���P��$V�WKH�LFH�PHOWHG��WKH�VHD�EHJDQ�WR�IORRG�WKH�&O\GH��SUREDEO\�VWDUWLQJ��������\HDUV�DJR�DQG�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DV�ZH�ZRXOG�EHJLQ�WR�UHFRJQLVH�LW�WRGD\�IRUPLQJ�RYHU�WKH�QH[W�����\HDUV��DOWKRXJK�LFH�SHUVLVWHG�ODWHVW�LQ�/RFK�/RQJ�DQG�*DUHORFK��7KH�&O\GH�6HD�WKHQ�EHFDPH�ELJJHU�WKDQ�WRGD\��DV�ODQG�ZDV�ORZHU�FRPSDUHG�WR�VHD�OHYHO�RZLQJ�WR�WKH�HIIHFW�RI�WKH�ZHLJKW�RI�WKH�LFH�VKHHW���2QFH�WKH�VHD�IORRGHG�LQWR�WKH�&O\GH��VR�WKH�GHSRVLWLRQ�RI�WKH�PXGV�DQG�FOD\V�EHJDQ�ZKLFK�DJDLQ�UHGXFHG�WKH�GHSWKV�RI�WKH�LFH�FDUYHG�EDVLQV�EHKLQG�WKH�*UHDW�3ODWHDX��7KHVH�ZHUH�SDUWO\�HURGHG�VHGLPHQWV��DQG�SDUWO\�WKH�VNHOHWRQV�RI�GHDG�PDULQH�SODQNWRQ��7KH�ORFDWLRQ�RI�WKH�VKRUHOLQH�QRZ�YDULHG�JUHDWO\�DV�WKH�OHYHO�RI�ERWK�WKH�VHD�DQG�WKH�ODQG�DOWHUHG�IROORZLQJ�WKH�UHPRYDO�RI�WKH�LFH�VKHHWV��UHVXOWLQJ�LQ�VKRUHOLQH�IHDWXUHV�VHHQ�WRGD\�DERYH�FXUUHQW�VHD�OHYHO���7RGD\��WKH�ODQG�DURXQG�WKH�&O\GH�FRQWLQXHV�WR�ULVH�VORZO\��DQG�GHSRVLWLRQ�RI�VLOWV�DQG�FOD\V�LQ�WKH�GHHS�EDVLQV�FRQWLQXHV���

���� %DWK\PHWU\�DQG�6HGLPHQWRORJ\��$V�D�UHVXOW�RI�WKH�HURVLRQDO�DQG�GHSRVLWLRQDO�SURFHVVHV�GHVFULEHG�DERYH��WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�LV�D�UHJLRQ�RI�FRPSOH[�EDWK\PHWU\�DQG�VHD�EHG�VHGLPHQW��7LY\���������7KH�JODFLDO�DFWLRQ�KDV�FUHDWHG�D�ODUJH�IMRUGLF�V\VWHP�VHSDUDWHG�IURP�WKH�,ULVK�6HD�E\�D�EURDG�XQGHUZDWHU�VLOO�DQG�IURP�WKH�$WODQWLF�E\�WKH�0XOO�RI�.LQW\UH��660(,���7KH�EURDG�VLOO��WHUPHG�WKH�*UHDW�3ODWHDX��KDV�DQ�DYHUDJH�GHSWK�RI������P��ZKLFK�GLYLGHV�WKH�1RUWK�&KDQQHO�IURP�WKH�$UUDQ�%DVLQ�ZKHUH�ZDWHU�GHSWKV�FDQ�UHDFK����P��7KH�$UUDQ�EDVLQ�LWVHOI�H[KLELWV�FRPSOH[�EDWK\PHWU\�FRQVLVWLQJ�RI�ERWK�GHHS�FKDQQHOV�WR�WKH�QRUWK�DQG�UHODWLYHO\�VKDOORZ�VKHOYLQJ�DUHDV�WR�WKH�HDVW��)LJXUH��������

Page 30: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����%DWK\PHWU\�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��/LJKWHVW�EOXH�±�GHSWKV�RI���P��GDUNHVW�EOXH�±�GHSWKV�RI����P��

�7KH�VXE�WLGDO�HQYLURQPHQW�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�LV�SUHGRPLQDQWO\�VHGLPHQWDU\�LQ�QDWXUH��0RRUH��������GHVFULEHG�LW�DV�FRQVLVWLQJ�RI�SUHGRPLQDQWO\�ILQH�JUDLQHG�OD\HUHG�PXGV��7KH�ODUJH�H[SDQVHV�RI�PXGV�LQ�WKH�GHHSHU�ZDWHU�H[WHQG�DURXQG�$UUDQ�LQWR�WKH�GHHS�EDVLQV�RI�WKH�XSSHU�ORFKV��$OWKRXJK�WKH�VXEVWUDWH�LV�PXGG\�WKURXJKRXW�PXFK�RI�WKH�DUHD��WKH�DUHD�GRHV�FRQWDLQ�D�ZLGH�UDQJH�RI�KDELWDWV��WKHUH�DUH�ORQJ�VDQG\�VWUHWFKHV�DORQJ�WKH�$\UVKLUH�FRDVW�DQG�WKHUH�LV�KDUG�JURXQG�DORQJ�WKH�HGJH�RI�WKH�GHHS�FKDQQHOV�LQ�WKH�1RUWK�&KDQQHO�DQG�/RFK�)\QH��7KHUH�DUH�DOVR�QDUURZ�VHD�ORFKV�ZLWK�URFN\�VKRUHV�DQG�VDQG\�ED\V��)LJXUH���������

Page 31: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����6HD�EHG�VHGLPHQWV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�XVLQJ�WKH�)RON�WULDQJOH�FODVVLILFDWLRQ�EDVHG�RQ�WKH�JUDYHO�SHUFHQWDJH�DQG�WKH�VDQG�WR�PXG�UDWLR��6HH�6HFWLRQ�������IRU�D�IXOO�H[SODQDWLRQ�RI�VHGLPHQW�W\SH�FRGHV��

���� 13B+\GURJUDSK\��7KH�K\GURJUDSK\�RI�WKH�DUHD�LV�DOVR�FRPSOH[�DQG�LV�ODUJHO\�GULYHQ�E\�LWV�EDWK\PHWU\��6DOLQLW\�DQG�WHPSHUDWXUH�GLVWULEXWLRQV�GHVFULEHG�E\�&UDLJ��������DQG�'RROH\��������SRLQW�WR�D�IURQW�RQ�WKH�*UHDW�3ODWHDX�ZKLFK�VHSDUDWHV�WKH�WLGDOO\�PL[HG�ZDWHUV�RI�WKH�1RUWK�&KDQQHO�IURP�WKH�VWUDWLILHG�ZDWHUV�DQG�ZHDN�WLGDO�FXUUHQWV�RI�WKH�)LUWK��7KH�PD[LPXP�YHORFLW\�RI�WKH�WLGDO�FXUUHQWV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�JHQHUDOO\�OHVV�WKDQ�����PV���DQG�ZLWKLQ�WKH�VHD�ORFKV�WKH\�DUH�HYHQ�ZHDNHU�DWWDLQLQJ�DERXW�����PV����7KH�EDWK\PHWU\�FRQWUROV�WKH�EDODQFH�RI�SURFHVVHV�DW�DQ\�SDUWLFXODU�GHSWK��$W�WKH�VXUIDFH�WKHUH�LV�IUHH�FRQQHFWLRQ�WKURXJKRXW�DQG�PRYHPHQW�LV�GRPLQDWHG�E\�SUHVVXUH�JUDGLHQWV�VHW�XS�E\�WLGH��ZLQG�DQG�IUHVKZDWHU�RXWIORZV��,Q�WKH�GHHSHU�ZDWHUV�EHORZ�WKH�VLOOV��GHQVH�ZDWHU�VHWWOHV��IORZV�DUH�EORFNHG�DQG�DUH�GRPLQDWHG�E\�RVFLOODWRU\�LQWHUQDO�PRYHPHQWV��ERWWRP�ZDWHU�VWDJQDWLRQ��VRPH�R[\JHQ�GHSOHWLRQ�DQG�QXWULHQW�EXLOG�XS�FDQ�RFFXU�ZLWKLQ�WKH�ORZHU�OHYHOV�RI�WKH�VHD�ORFKV��+RZHYHU�WKH�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�WKH�GHHS�ZDWHU�LV�VRPHWLPHV�RYHUHPSKDVLVHG��E\�DUHD�RQO\�����OLHV�EHORZ����P�DQG����EHORZ�����P��6HH�VHFWLRQ�����

Page 32: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

�7KH�EDVLQ�DOVR�UHFHLYHV�ODUJH�LQSXWV���������P�V����RI�IUHVKZDWHU�IURP�WKH�5LYHU�&O\GH�DQG�RWKHU�ULYHU�VRXUFHV�ZKLFK�HQWHU�PDLQO\�WKURXJK�WKH�QRUWK�RI�WKH�UHJLRQ��3RRGOH���������7KH�IUHVKZDWHU�LQIORZ�SURGXFHV�D�W\SLFDO�IMRUGLF�UHJLPH�ZLWK�WKH�VDOLQLW\�RI�WKH�RXWIORZ�VXUIDFH�ZDWHU�UHGXFHG�E\�XS�WR�����UHODWLYH�WR�WKH�LQIORZ�RYHU�WKH�VLOO��7KH�HIIHFW�RI�WKLV�VXUIDFH�ZDWHU�WHQGV�WR�PDLQWDLQ�D�VWDEOH�VWUDWLILFDWLRQ�ZKLFK�LV�QRW�VHULRXVO\�HURGHG�E\�WLGDO�VWLUULQJ�RQ�DFFRXQW�RI�WKH�JHQHUDOO\�ZHDN�WLGDO�IORZV��6LPSVRQ�DQG�5LSSHWK����������7KH�WHPSHUDWXUH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��FRPSDUHG�WR�WKH�1RUWK�&KDQQHO��LV�ZDUPHU�LQ�WKH�VXPPHU�DQG�FROGHU�LQ�WKH�ZLQWHU��7KH�VKDOORZ�ZDWHUV�RI�WKH�ORFKV�DQG�HVWXDULHV�H[SHULHQFH�PXFK�JUHDWHU�WHPSHUDWXUH�IOXFWXDWLRQV��VXUIDFH�LFH�IRUPV�DW�WKH�KHDGV�RI�VRPH�ORFKV�LQ�WKH�ZLQWHU�DQG�D�WKHUPRFOLQH�LV�HVWDEOLVKHG�GXULQJ�WKH�VXPPHU��&RQQRU���������0HDQ�VXUIDFH�WHPSHUDWXUH�DQG�VDOLQLW\�YDU\�TXLWH�FRQVLGHUDEO\��GHSHQGLQJ�RQ�WKH�VHDVRQ��IURP������&�DQG�IURP�����������UHVSHFWLYHO\���������� 42B$Q�$QQXDO�&\FOH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��6OHVVHU�DQG�7XUUHOO��������SURYLGH�DQQXDO�F\FOHV�RI�SK\VLFDO��FKHPLFDO�DQG�VRPH�ELRORJLFDO�SDUDPHWHUV�LQ�WKH�ZDWHUV�DURXQG�6FRWODQG��7KHVH�KDYH�EHHQ�GHULYHG�IURP�WKH�H[WHQVLYH�ZDWHU�VDPSOLQJ�SHUIRUPHG�E\�0DULQH�6FRWODQG�6FLHQFH�VLQFH�������,Q�WKLV�VHFWLRQ�ZH�SUHVHQW�DYHUDJH�DQQXDO�F\FOHV�RI�WKHVH�SDUDPHWHUV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��DYHUDJHG�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�6HD�RYHU�D�VXUIDFH������P��OD\HU��DQG�ERWWRP�OD\HU����P�±�VHD�EHG���1RWH�WKDW�DV�WKH�YDOXHV�SUHVHQWHG�LQ�WKLV�VHFWLRQ�DUH�DYHUDJHV�RYHU�ERWK�VSDFH�DQG�WLPH��DFWXDOO�YDOXHV�DW�LQGLYLGXDO�ORFDWLRQV��DW�VSHFLILF�WLPHV��FDQ�EH�YHU\�GLIIHUHQW��SDUWLFXODUO\�IRU�WKH�ELRORJLFDO�SDUDPHWHU�FKORURSK\OO�D���)RU�FRPSDULVRQ��GDWD�IURP�DQ�DUHD�GHILQHG�E\�6OHVVHU�DQG�7XUUHOO��������DV�WKH�,QQHU�0DOLQ�6KHOI�KDYH�EHHQ�XVHG��5HVXOWV�IURP�WKLV�DUHD�UHIOHFW�W\SLFDO�FRQGLWLRQV�LQ�WKH�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV�ZHVW�RI�6FRWODQG��RXWVLGH�WKH�&O\GH��6OHVVHU�DQG�7XUUHOO��������SURYLGH�DOO�GHWDLOV�FRQFHUQLQJ�VDPSOLQJ��GDWD�SURFHVVLQJ��DFFXUDFLHV�HWF��'DWD�IURP�DSSUR[LPDWHO\������K\GURJUDSKLF�VWDWLRQV�DUH�LQFOXGHG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�DYHUDJHV�ZKLOH�RQO\�����DUH�DYDLODEOH�IRU�WKH�,QQHU�0DOLQ�6KHOI���6OHVVHU�DQG�7XUUHOO��������SUHVHQW�ILJXUHV�IRU�PRQWKO\�DYHUDJHV�RI�WHPSHUDWXUH��VDOLQLW\��GHQVLW\��R[LGLVHG�QLWURJHQ��12����RUWKRSKRVSKDWH��32����VLOLFDWH��6L���DPPRQLD��1+����SDUWLFXODWH�RUJDQLF�FDUERQ��SDUWLFXODWH�RUJDQLF�QLWURJHQ��FKORURSK\OO�D��SKDHRSK\WLQ��R[\JHQ�DQG�ZDWHU�FROXPQ�VWDELOLW\��+HUH�ZH�ZLOO�IRFXV�RQ�WKH�SK\VLFDO�SDUDPHWHUV�WHPSHUDWXUH���&���VDOLQLW\�DQG�GHQVLW\��LQ�WHUPV�RI�ı7���XQLWV�NJ�P����WR�GHVFULEH�D�W\SLFDO�\HDU�LQ�WHUPV�RI�FKDQJHV�WR�WKH�SK\VLFDO�HQYLURQPHQW�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��)LJXUH����D���&KHPLFDO�DQG�ELRORJLFDO�SDUDPHWHUV�SUHVHQWHG�DUH�R[LGLVHG�QLWURJHQ��UHIHUUHG�WR�DV�QLWUDWH�IRU�WKLV�WH[W��XQLWV�±�ȝJ�DW�O���FKORURSK\OO�D��ȝJ�O��DQG�R[\JHQ�FRQWHQW��SHUFHQW�VDWXUDWLRQ��WR�GHPRQVWUDWH�WKH�DQQXDO�ELRORJLFDO�SURGXFWLRQ�F\FOH�DQG�LWV�HIIHFWV��)LJXUH����E����$QQXDO�FKDQJHV�LQ�WKH�SK\VLFDO�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��,Q�WKH�&O\GH��FROGHVW�ZLQWHU�WHPSHUDWXUHV�DUH�H[SHULHQFHG�LQ�0DUFK���$SULO�ZKHQ�WHPSHUDWXUHV�LQ�WKH�VXUIDFH�DQG�ORZHU�ZDWHU�FROXPQ�DUH�WKH�VDPH��a��&���7HPSHUDWXUHV�WKHQ�VWDUW�WR�ZDUP��UHDFKLQJ�D�PD[LPXP�LQ�WKH�VXUIDFH�ZDWHUV�LQ�$XJXVW��a���&���$W�WKLV�WLPH�ERWWRP�OD\HU�WHPSHUDWXUHV�DUH�VWLOO�ZDUPLQJ�WRZDUGV�WKHLU�PD[LPXP��LPSO\LQJ�D�GHJUHH�RI�LVRODWLRQ�IURP�WKH�VXUIDFH�ZDWHUV��7KLV�LV�FRQILUPHG�E\�WKH�VDOLQLW\�DQG�GHQVLW\�GLIIHUHQFHV�EHWZHHQ�VXUIDFH�DQG�ERWWRP�ZDWHUV�ZKLFK�LV�PDLQWDLQHG�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�\HDU��$V�WHPSHUDWXUH�FRROV�WRZDUGV�ZLQWHU��ERWWRP�OD\HU�DQG�VXUIDFH�OD\HU�WHPSHUDWXUHV�HTXDOLVH�DIWHU�2FWREHU��'HQVLW\�GLIIHUHQFHV�EHWZHHQ�WKH�WZR�OD\HUV�DUH�PLQLPXP�LQ�)HEUXDU\�DQG�1RYHPEHU�ZKHQ�PL[LQJ�EHWZHHQ�WKH�OD\HUV�PD\�EH�PRVW�IUHTXHQW��

Page 33: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

�:KHQ�FRPSDULQJ�WKH�DYHUDJH�DQQXDO�F\FOH�RI�SK\VLFDO�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH�WR�WKRVH�RI�WKH�,QQHU�0DOLQ�6KHOI��WKH�IROORZLQJ�FRPSDULVRQ�FDQ�EH�PDGH��&O\GH�VXPPHU�VXUIDFH�OD\HU�WHPSHUDWXUHV�DUH�VLPLODU�WR�WKRVH�LQ�6FRWWLVK�ZHVW�FRDVW�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV��PD[LPXP�VXUIDFH�VXPPHU�WHPSHUDWXUHV�RFFXU�D�PRQWK�HDUOLHU�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��ZLQWHU�PLQLPXP�WHPSHUDWXUHV�DUH�DERXW���&�FRROHU��VDOLQLWLHV�DUH�IUHVKHU�RZLQJ�WR�WKH�ORFDO�IUHVKZDWHU�LQSXWV��GHQVLW\�VWUDWLILFDWLRQ�SHUVLVWV�DOO�\HDU�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��DOWKRXJK�ZHDNHVW�LQ�WKH�ZLQWHU��ZKHUHDV�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV�DUH�SUHGRPLQDQWO\�ZHOO�PL[HG���$QQXDO�FKDQJHV�LQ�WKH�FKHPLFDO�DQG�ELRORJLFDO�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��1XWULHQW�FRQWHQW�RI�WKH�&O\GH��XVLQJ�QLWUDWH�DV�DQ�LQGLFDWRU��LV�JHQHUDOO\�KLJKHU�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�WKDQ�DGMDFHQW�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV��SUHVXPDEO\�RZLQJ�WR�ORFDO�QXWULHQW�VXSSO\�IURP�IUHVKZDWHU�LQSXWV��:LQWHU�YDOXHV�UHDFK�D�PD[LPXP�RI�������ȝJ�DW�O��ZKHUHDV�FRDVWDO�PD[LPXP�YDOXHV�DUH�W\SLFDOO\�����ȝJ�DW�O��,Q�WKH�VXUIDFH�OD\HU�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH�QXWULHQW�LV�GHSOHWHG�E\�-XQH���-XO\�DV�D�UHVXOW�RI�ELRORJLFDO�SURGXFWLRQ��DOWKRXJK�ERWWRP�OD\HU�QXWULHQW�GRHV�QRW�IDOO�EHORZ���ȝJ�DW�O���7KHUH�DUH�QR�DYDLODEOH�PHDVXUHPHQWV�RI�SULPDU\�SURGXFWLRQ�IRXQG�E\�WKLV�VWXG\�IURP�WKH�&O\GH��+RZHYHU��WKHUH�DUH�YDOXHV�RI�WKH�LQVWDQWDQHRXV�FRQFHQWUDWLRQ�RI�FKORURSK\OO�D�ZKLFK�FDQ�DFW�DV�DQ�LQGLFDWRU�RI�WKH�WLPLQJ�DQG�PDJQLWXGH�RI�SULPDU\�SURGXFWLRQ��7ZR�SHDNV�DUH�HYLGHQW�LQ�WKH�DYHUDJH�DQQXDO�YDOXHV�REWDLQHG�IURP�WKH�VXUIDFH�OD\HU�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH��RQH�LQ�0DUFK�DQG�RQH�LQ�-XO\��%RWK�DSSHDU�HTXDO�LQ�PDJQLWXGH��7KLV�FRQWUDVWV�WR�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV��ZKHUH�D�ILUVW�SHDN�LQ�SURGXFWLRQ�PD\�RFFXU�LQ�-XQH�DQG�D�VHFRQG��VPDOOHU�SHDN�LQ�6HSWHPEHU��0D[LPXP�&O\GH�FKORURSK\OO�D�YDOXHV�DUH�EHWZHHQ�����ȝJ�O��ZKHUHDV�LQ�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV�WKH\�DUH�ORZHU��W\SLFDOO\�����ȝJ�O��7KHVH�REVHUYDWLRQV�PD\�VXJJHVW�WKDW��WKH�&O\GH�LV�LQ�JHQHUDO�PRUH�SURGXFWLYH�WKDQ�RXWVLGH�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV��WKH�ELRORJLFDO�F\FOH�VWDUWV�HDUOLHU�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�DQG�WKHUH�DUH�WZR�GLVWLQFW�SHULRGV�RI�SURGXFWLYLW\��RQH�LQ�WKH�HDUO\�VSULQJ�DQG�RQH�LQ�WKH�VXPPHU���1RWH�WKDW�WKH�YDOXHV�SUHVHQWHG�KHUH�DUH�PRQWKO\�DYHUDJHV�RYHU�WKH�HQWLUH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��0D[LPXP�YDOXHV�DW�VSHFLILF�ORFDWLRQV�DQG�WLPHV�KDYH�EHHQ�REVHUYHG�PXFK�KLJKHU�WKDQ�WKH�PD[LPXP�YDOXHV�VWDWHG�KHUH����$�ILQDO�SDUDPHWHU�DYDLODEOH�IURP�WKH�DQQXDO�F\FOHV�VWXG\�RI�6OHVVHU�DQG�7XUUHOO��������LV�WKH�R[\JHQ�FRQWHQW�RI�WKH�ZDWHUV�RI�WKH�&O\GH��+HUH��WKH�SHUFHQWDJH�VDWXUDWLRQ�LV�SUHVHQWHG��DOWKRXJK�LQ�ELRORJLFDO�WHUPV�WKH�DEVROXWH�R[\JHQ�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�PD\�EH�PRUH�UHOHYDQW��,W�LV�FOHDU�IURP�)LJXUH����E�WKDW�WKH�VXUIDFH�OD\HUV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�DUH�JHQHUDOO\�IXOO\�VDWXUDWHG��ZLWK�YDOXHV�FORVH�WR�������+RZHYHU��WKH�R[\JHQ�VDWXUDWLRQ�LQ�WKH�GHHSHU�ZDWHUV�GHFOLQH�LQ�WKH�VXPPHU�PRQWKV�DV�VWUDWLILFDWLRQ�RI�WKH�ZDWHU�FROXPQ�OHDGV�WR�SDUWLDO�LVRODWLRQ�RI�WKH�GHQVHU�ERWWRP�ZDWHUV��1DWXUDO�XWLOLVDWLRQ�RI�R[\JHQ�WKURXJK�WKH�GHFD\�RI�RUJDQLF�PDWHULDO�XVHV�XS�R[\JHQ�XQWLO�WKH�ZDWHUV�DUH�IOXVKHG�E\�R[\JHQ�ULFK�ZDWHU�LQ�WKH�DXWXPQ��ZKHQ�LQFUHDVLQJ�ZLQGV�DQG�GHFUHDVLQJ�VWUDWLILFDWLRQ�PL[HV�XS�WKH�GHHSHU�ZDWHUV�DQG�UHSODFHV�WKHP�ZLWK�R[\JHQ�ULFK�VXUIDFH�ZDWHUV��7KH�VHDVRQDO�GHSOHWLRQ�RI�R[\JHQ�LV�QRW�VHHQ�LQ�DGMDFHQW�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV�DV�WKH\�UHPDLQ�YHUWLFDOO\�PL[HG�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�VXPPHU��7KH�ORZHVW�R[\JHQ�OHYHOV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�DUH�VHHQ�LQ�$XJXVW��DQG�DUH�DSSUR[LPDWHO\������,W�LV�QRW�WKRXJKW�WKDW�WKHVH�OHYHOV�ZLOO�FDXVH�PRUWDOLW\�WR�ILVK�RU�VKHOOILVK�SRSXODWLRQV��7KH�ORZHVW�YDOXHV�ZLOO�RFFXU�LQ�WKH�GHHS�EDVLQV��ZKHUH�WKH�VHGLPHQW�LV�SULPDULO\�PXG�DQG�WKH�SUHGRPLQDQW�EHQWKLF�IDXQD�ZLOO�EH�1HSKURSV��2ZLQJ�WR�WKHLU�EXUURZLQJ�DFWLYLWLHV��1HSKURSV�DUH�DGDSWHG�WR�ORZHU�R[\JHQ�OHYHOV���

Page 34: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

&O\GH�6HD ,QQHU�0DOLQ 6KHOI&O\GH�6HD ,QQHU�0DOLQ 6KHOI

)LJXUH����D�$YHUDJH�DQQXDO�F\FOHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��OHIW��DQG�,QQHU�0DOLQ�6KHOI��ULJKW��RI�WHPSHUDWXUH���&���VDOLQLW\�DQG�GHQVLW\��ı7�NJ�P�����6HH�)LJXUH����E�OHJHQG�EHORZ�IRU�GHWDLOV��

&O\GH�6HD ,QQHU�0DOLQ 6KHOI&O\GH�6HD ,QQHU�0DOLQ 6KHOI

)LJXUH����E�$YHUDJH�DQQXDO�F\FOHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��OHIW��DQG�,QQHU�0DOLQ�6KHOI��ULJKW��RI�QLWUDWH��ȝJ�DW�O���FKORURSK\OO�D��ȝJ�O��DQG�R[\JHQ��SHUFHQW�VDWXUDWLRQ��IURP�6OHVVHU�DQG�7XUUHOO���������'DWD�LV�SUHVHQWHG�IRU�D�VXUIDFH�OD\HU������P�DQG�����P�IRU�&O\GH�DQG�,QQHU�0DOLQ�6KHOI�UHVSHFWLYHO\���UHG�V\PEROV�DQG�OLQHV��DQG�IRU�D�ERWWRP�OD\HU����P�WR�VHD�EHG�DQG���P�WR�VHD�EHG�IRU�&O\GH�DQG�,QQHU�0DOLQ�6KHOI�UHVSHFWLYHO\�±�EOXH�V\PEROV�DQG�OLQHV���6HH�6OHVVHU�DQG�7XUUHOO��������IRU�D�IXOO�GHVFULSWLRQ�RI�WKH�GDWD�DQG�LW¶V�DFFXUDF\��

Page 35: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

������� 43B:DUPLQJ�6HD�7HPSHUDWXUHV��7KHUH�LV�LQFUHDVLQJ�HYLGHQFH�DQG�DJUHHPHQW�ZLWKLQ�WKH�VFLHQWLILF�FRPPXQLW\�WKDW�WKH�UHOHDVH�RI�JUHHQKRXVH�JDVHV�LQWR�WKH�DWPRVSKHUH�LV�WKH�PDMRU�FDXVH�RI�WKH�REVHUYHG�DYHUDJH�LQFUHDVH�LQ�JOREDO�WHPSHUDWXUHV�RYHU�WKH�ODVW�FHQWXU\��$URXQG�WKH�FRDVW�RI�6FRWODQG�DQ�LQFUHDVH�LQ�VHD�WHPSHUDWXUHV�KDV�EHHQ�REVHUYHG�ZKLFK�KDV�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�WR�DOWHU�WKH�DEXQGDQFH�DQG�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�PDULQH�VSHFLHV��0DULQH�6FRWODQG�FXUUHQWO\�PDLQWDLQV�D�QHWZRUN�RI�FRDVWDO�WHPSHUDWXUH�PRQLWRULQJ�VWDWLRQV�DURXQG�WKH�FRDVW�RI�6FRWODQG�DQG�DW�WKUHH�RI�WKH�VLWHV��0LOOSRUW��)DLU�,VOH�DQG�3HWHUKHDG��GDWD�KDV�EHHQ�FROOHFWHG�IRU�PRUH�WKDQ����\HDUV��5HFHQW�DQDO\VLV�RI�WHPSHUDWXUH�GDWD�IURP�WKH�VLWHV�FXUUHQWO\�PRQLWRUHG�LQ�WKH�LQVKRUH�DUHDV�VKRZ�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�PD\�EH�ZDUPLQJ�IDVWHU�WKDQ�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV�ZLWKLQ�WKH�1RUWK�6HD��)LJXUH�������7KH�ZDUPLQJ�UDWH�DW�7LUHH�LV�VLPLODU�WR�WKDW�RI�WKH�&O\GH���

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0.27

Is the Clyde warming faster?

Year

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y

0.55

0.27 0.51

)LJXUH�����/RQJ�WHUP�WHPSHUDWXUH�DQRPDOLHV�SORWWHG�DJDLQVW�\HDU�RYHU�FRPPRQ�WLPH�SHULRG��������������:DUPLQJ�UDWHV���&�GHFDGH����IURP�WKH�OLQHDU�ILW�WR�WKH�GDWD��5HG��0LOOSRUW��*UHHQ��)DLU�,VOH��%OXH��3HWHUKHDG��%ODFN��7LUHH��

��

���� 14B3ODQNWRQ��3ODQNWRQ�DUH�DW�WKH�EDVH�RI�WKH�PDULQH�IRRG�ZHE�SURYLGLQJ�IRRG�IRU�PDQ\�VSHFLHV�RI�ILVK�DQG�VKHOOILVK��DQG�KHQFH�IRU�WKH�ILVK��ELUGV�DQG�PDULQH�PDPPDOV�ZKLFK�IHHG�RQ�WKHP��7KH\�LQFOXGH�EDFWHULD��SODQWV��SK\WRSODQNWRQ��DQG�DQLPDOV��]RRSODQNWRQ���7KH\�SOD\�D�IXQGDPHQWDO�UROH�LQ�WKH�IXQFWLRQLQJ�RI�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHPV�E\�SURYLGLQJ�KDOI�RI�WKH�JOREDO�SULPDU\�SURGXFWLRQ��:DQLHN�DQG�+ROOLGD\���������)RU�DQ�HFRV\VWHP��WKH�DYDLODELOLW\�RI�QXWULHQWV��ODUYDO�VXUYLYDO��PDLQWDLQLQJ�SRSXODWLRQV�DQG�WKH�WLPLQJ�RI�HJJ�SURGXFWLRQ�DUH�KLJKO\�GHSHQGHQW�RQ�WKH�DPRXQW�RI�SODQNWRQ�DYDLODEOH��%DUQH�HW�DO�����������

Page 36: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

7KH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�SODQNWRQ�LV�VWURQJO\�LQIOXHQFHG�E\�IDFWRUV�VXFK�DV�OLJKW�DQG�QXWULHQW�DYDLODELOLW\��ZDWHU�WHPSHUDWXUH��GHSWK�ZLWKLQ�WKH�ZDWHU�FROXPQ��WLGDO�PL[LQJ�DQG�WKH�YHUWLFDO�VWDELOLW\�RI�WKH�ZDWHU�FROXPQ��3ODQNWRQ�FRPPXQLWLHV�DUH�VXUSULVLQJO\�GLYHUVH�DQG�VHDVRQDO�VXFFHVVLRQV�RI�FRPPXQLWLHV�DUH�XVXDOO\�REVHUYHG�GXH�WR�HQYLURQPHQWDO�FRQGLWLRQV�DQG�WKH�GLIIHUHQW�DGDSWLYH�VWUDWHJLHV�RI�SODQNWRQ�SRSXODWLRQV��5H\QROGV�HW�DO����������7KH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�VXSSRUWV�D�ULFK�IORUD�DQG�IDXQD��+DLJ��������DQG�HDUO\�VWXGLHV�IURP�WKH�DUHD�VKRZHG�WKDW�WKH�PDLQ�IRRG�SDWKZD\�LQ�WKLV�UHJLRQ�ZDV�GLDWRPV��RQH�RI�WKH�PRVW�FRPPRQ�W\SHV�RI�SK\WRSODQNWRQ��WR�FRSHSRG�WR�KHUULQJ��0DUVKDOO��������0DUVKDOO������������������ 44B3K\WRSODQNWRQ��7KH�VSULQJ�LQFUHDVH�LQ�SK\WRSODQNWRQ�EHJLQV�LQ�0DUFK��ZLWK�GLDWRPV�UHDFKLQJ�D�SHDN�LQ�0D\��GLQRIODJHOODWHV�VKRZ�D�VWHDG\�LQFUHDVH�WKURXJK�WKH�VXPPHU�XQWLO�6HSWHPEHU�ZKHQ�DEXQGDQFH�GHFOLQHV�WR�ZLQWHU�OHYHOV��'LQRIODJHOODWHV�DUH�RI�SDUWLFXODU�LPSRUWDQFH�DURXQG�6FRWODQG�EHFDXVH�RI�WKH�QXPEHU�RI�KDUPIXO�JHQHUD�WKDW�DUH�URXWLQHO\�REVHUYHG��)LVK�IDUPV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��SDUWLFXODUO\�LQ�/RFKV�)\QH�DQG�6WULYHQ��KDYH�ORVW�VWRFN�GXH�WR�VXFK�KDUPIXO�SK\WRSODQNWRQ�EORRPV��7HWW�HW�DO���������DQG�DOJDO�WR[LQV�KDYH�EHHQ�UHFRUGHG�LQ�VKHOOILVK�IURP�WKH�UHJLRQ��6WRER�HW�DO���������1RW�DOO�KDUPIXO�VSHFLHV�VHHQ�LQ�6FRWODQG�SRVH�D�VHYHUH�SUREOHP��$W�WKH�0LOOSRUW�PRQLWRULQJ�VLWH��$OH[DQGULXP�VSS��LV�REVHUYHG�LQIUHTXHQWO\�DQG�3VHXGR�QLW]VFKLD�VSS��FHOO�GHQVLWLHV�DUH�ORZ�FRPSDUHG�ZLWK�RWKHU�6FRWWLVK�VLWHV��/LSRSKLOLF�VKHOOILVK�WR[LQV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�'LQRSK\VLV�DUH�UHFRUGHG�LQ�WKLV�UHJLRQ��6WRER�HW�DO��������+LJK�FHOO�GHQVLWLHV�RI�.DUHQLD�PLNLPRWRL�KDYH�EHHQ�REVHUYHG�GXULQJ�WKH�ODVW�WZR�\HDUV�DW�WKH�0LOOSRUW�PRQLWRULQJ�VLWH��)LJXUH�������.DUHQLD�EORRPV�DORQJ�WKH�ZHVW�FRDVW�RI�6FRWODQG�DUH�VSRUDGLF�LQ�RFFXUUHQFH�DQG�WKHUH�LV�VRPH�VXJJHVWLRQ�WKDW�WKH\�PD\�KDYH�DQ�RIIVKRUH�LQIOXHQFH��'DYLGVRQ�HW�DO����������7KH������EORRP�ZKLFK�KDG�GHYDVWDWLQJ�LPSDFWV�DORQJ�WKH�:HVW�&RDVW�GLG�QRW�LPSDFW�WKH�&O\GH��$OWKRXJK�WKH�FHOO�GHQVLWLHV�DW�0LOOSRUW�ZHUH�QRW�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�FDWDVWURSKLF�PRUWDOLWLHV�RI�WKH�EHQWKRV�RU�ZLOG�RU�IDUPHG�ILVK��WKH�LPSDFW�RQ�WKH�ELRWD�RI�H[SRVXUH�WR�VXE�OHWKDO�GHQVLWLHV�LV�UHODWLYHO\�XQNQRZQ��)LJXUH�����VKRZV�WKH�GLDWRP�DQG�GLQRIODJHOODWHV�FHOO�FRXQWV�DW�0LOOSRUW�VLQFH������ZKLFK�LQGLFDWHV�D�ODUJH�DPRXQW�RI�SK\WRSODQNWRQ�DQG�WKXV�KLJK�SURGXFWLYLW\�GXULQJ�WKH�SK\WRSODQNWRQ�EORRPV��&RPSDULVRQ�ZLWK�WZR�RWKHU�VLWHV��/RFK�(ZH��:HVWHU�5RVV�DQG�6FDSD�%D\��2UNQH\��IURP�WKH�066�PRQLWRULQJ�SURJUDPPH�VKRZ�D�JUHDWHU�DEXQGDQFH�RI�GLDWRPV�DQG�GLQRIODJHOODWHV�UHFRUGHG�DW�WKH�0LOOSRUW�VLWH��)LJXUHV�����DQG�������

Page 37: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

�D�� � � � E�� � F��

��

)LJXUH�����0RQWKO\�DYHUDJHG�FHOO�GHQVLWLHV�IURP�����������DW�0LOOSRUW�RI�D��GLDWRPV��E��GLQRIODJHOODWHV�DQG�F��.DUHQLD�PLNLPRWRL��1RWH�GDWD�KDV�EHHQ�URRW�VTXDUH�WUDQVIRUPHG��

D�� � � � E�� � �����������������F��

)LJXUH�����0RQWKO\�DYHUDJHG�FHOO�GHQVLWLHV�IURP�����������DW�/RFK�(ZH�RI�D��GLDWRPV��E��GLQRIODJHOODWHV�DQG�F��.DUHQLD�PLNLPRWRL��1RWH�GDWD�KDV�EHHQ�URRW�VTXDUH�WUDQVIRUPHG��

D�� � � � E�� � F��

)LJXUH�����0RQWKO\�DYHUDJHG�FHOO�GHQVLWLHV�IURP�����������DW�6FDSD�)ORZ�RI�D��GLDWRPV��E��GLQRIODJHOODWHV�DQG�F��.DUHQLD�PLNLPRWRL��1RWH�GDWD�KDV�EHHQ�URRW�VTXDUH�WUDQVIRUPHG��

Page 38: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

������ 45B=RRSODQNWRQ��7KH�]RRSODQNWRQ�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�KDV�EHHQ�SDUWLFXODUO\�ZHOO�GRFXPHQWHG��$GDPV���������LW�LV�GRPLQDWHG�E\�FRSHSRGV��HXSKDXVLLGV��DUURZ�ZRUPV�DQG�MHOO\ILVK��7HWW���������$OWKRXJK�WKH�HXSKDXVLLGV�VSHFLHV�0HJDQ\FWLSKDQHV�QRUYHJLFD�DQG�7K\VDQRHVVD�UDVFKLL�DUH�LPSRUWDQW�LQ�WKH�GHHS�ZDWHU�DURXQG�$UUDQ�DQG�/RFK�)\QH��LQ�JHQHUDO��WKH�FRSHSRG�&DODQXV�VS�DUH�WKH�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW�SHODJLF�FUXVWDFHDQV��$GDPV���������7KH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�FRSHSRGV�LQ�WKLV�UHJLRQ�LV�TXLWH�KLJK�FRPSDUHG�ZLWK�RWKHU�VLWHV�DURXQG�6FRWODQG¶V�FRDVW�DQG�WKH�GXUDWLRQ�RI�VHDVRQDO�DEXQGDQFH�LV�TXLWH�SURORQJHG�FRPSDUHG�ZLWK�WKH�QRUWKHUQ�1RUWK�6HD��%DUQH�HW�DO����������&DODQXV�RFFXUV�LQ�HQRUPRXV�QXPEHUV�LQ�VXUIDFH�ZDWHUV�WKURXJKRXW�0D\�DQG�-XQH�DIWHU�ZKLFK�WKLV�VSHFLHV�LV�IRXQG�PDLQO\�LQ�GHHSHU�ZDWHUV�VXFK�DV�WKRVH�RI�/RFK�)\QH��7HWW������������

���� &RQFOXGLQJ�5HPDUNV��7KH�&O\GH�6HD�SUHVHQWV�WKH�RYHUDOO�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�RI�D�VHPL�HQFORVHG�IMRUGLF�EDVLQ��UHFHLYLQJ�IUHVKZDWHU�LQSXWV�IURP�WKH�ODQG�DQG�KDYLQJ�SDUWLDO�H[FKDQJH�ZLWK�WKH�ZDWHUV�RQ�WKH�DGMDFHQW�FRDVWDO�VKHOI�DW�LWV�PRXWK���7KH�VHD�EHG�SK\VLFDO�KDELWDWV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�DUH�GRPLQDWHG�E\�WKH�ORFDO�GHSWK��WKH�ORFDO�VHGLPHQW�W\SH�DQG�WKH�ORFDO�WLGDO�FXUUHQWV�DQG�ZDYH�DFWLRQ��7KH�SUHGRPLQDQW�VKDSH�DQG�EDWK\PHWU\�RI�WKH�&O\GH�EDVLQ��DQG�WKH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�WKH�SULQFLSDO�VHD�EHG�W\SHV��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�JUDYHOV��VDQGV�DQG�PXGV��KDYH�EHHQ�OLWWOH�FKDQJHG�VLQFH�WKH�HQG�RI�WKH�ODVW�JODFLDO�SHULRG��LFH�DJH����7KH�EDVLV�RI�WKH�PDULQH�IRRG�ZHE�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��L�H��WKH�DQQXDO�F\FOH�RI�SODQW��SK\WRSODQNWRQ��JURZWK��IHG�E\�ZDWHU�ERUQH�QXWULHQWV��DQG�WKH�VXEVHTXHQW�IHHGLQJ�DQG�JURZWK�RI�PLFURVFRSLF�DQLPDOV��]RRSODQNWRQ���DSSHDUV�KHDOWK\�DQG�SURGXFWLYH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH���)URP�ODUJH�VFDOH�REVHUYDWLRQV��WKHUH�DUH�QR�REYLRXV�VLJQV�RI�QHJDWLYH�HIIHFWV�RQ�WKH�IRRG�ZHE�RI�SROOXWLRQ��QXWULHQW�HQULFKPHQW�RU�DQ\�RWKHU�PDQ�PDGH�VRXUFH�RI�FRQWDPLQDWLRQ��7KLV�GRHV�QRW�SUHFOXGH�WKH�SRVVLELOLW\�RI�VPDOO�VFDOH�ORFDO�HIIHFWV���$OWKRXJK�WKH�ZDWHUV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUH�ZDUPLQJ��WKLV�LV�LQ�OLQH�ZLWK�RWKHU�FRDVWDO�DUHDV�ZHVW�RI�6FRWODQG��7KHUH�LV�QR�HYLGHQFH�WKDW�WKH�ZDUPLQJ�LQ�LWVHOI�KDV�UHGXFHG�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�SURGXFWLYLW\�RI�WKH�&O\GH���

���� 6XJJHVWLRQV�IRU�)XUWKHU�:RUN��7KH�SK\VLFDO�HQYLURQPHQW�RI�WKH�&O\GH�LV�GHWHUPLQHG�E\�ZDWHU�PRYHPHQWV�GULYHQ�E\�WLGH��ZLQG�DQG�GHQVLW\�UHODWHG�IRUFHV�DULVLQJ�IURP�WKH�LQSXW�RI�IUHVKZDWHU�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH��$GGLWLRQDO�ZDWHU�PRYHPHQW�LV�GULYHQ�E\�WKH�HIIHFW�RI�VXUIDFH�ZDYHV��1XPHURXV�K\GURG\QDPLF�PRGHOV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�KDYH�EHHQ�FRQVWUXFWHG��+RZHYHU��DV�WKH�SK\VLFDO�HQYLURQPHQW�LV�FULWLFDO�LQ�GHWHUPLQLQJ�WKH�ORFDWLRQ�DQG�SRVVLEOH�KHDOWK�RI�NH\�VHD�EHG�KDELWDWV�VXFK�DV�PDHUO�EHGV��WKHUH�LV�D�QHHG�QRZ�IRU�D�VWDWH�RI�WKH�DUW�ILQH�UHVROXWLRQ��H�J�����P��WKUHH�GLPHQVLRQDO�K\GURG\QDPLF�PRGHO�XVLQJ�PRGHUQ�PRGHOOLQJ�WHFKQRORJ\�VXFK�DV�WKH�)�9&20�DSSURDFK����7KH�SLFWXUH�SUHVHQWHG�KHUH�RI�D�SURGXFWLYH�EDVH�RI�WKH�IRRG�ZHE�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�TXDOLWDWLYH�RQO\��$OWKRXJK�WKHUH�KDYH�EHHQ�QXPHURXV�LQGLYLGXDO�VWXGLHV�RI�DVSHFWV�RI�WKH�IRRG�ZHE�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��QR�RQH�TXDQWLWDWLYH�RYHUDOO�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�WKH�SRVW�LQGXVWULDO��SDUWLFXODUO\�DIWHU�WKH�FHVVDWLRQ�RI�WKH�XVH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�IRU�VHZDJH�GLVSRVDO�DQG�WKH�LQFOXVLRQ�RI�WKH�FXUUHQW�HIIHFWV�RI�FOLPDWH�FKDQJH��HFRV\VWHP�SURGXFWLYLW\�LV�DYDLODEOH��

Page 39: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

�7KH�EHVW�ZD\�WR�LQWHJUDWH�WKH�SK\VLFV��FKHPLVWU\�DQG�ELRORJ\�GULYLQJ�WKH�&O\GH�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHP�LQ�D�TXDQWLILDEOH�ZD\�LV�E\�HVWDEOLVKLQJ�DQ�HFRV\VWHP�PRGHO�RI�WKH�&O\GH��6RPH�DOUHDG\�H[LVW��DOWKRXJK�H[LVWLQJ�PRGHOV�HDFK�KDYH�SDUWLFXODU�OLPLWDWLRQV�DQG�IRFXVVHG�XVHV��:KHQ�DVVHPEOLQJ�VXFK�D�PRGHO��FULWLFDO�SDUDPHWHUV�ZLOO�EH�XQDYDLODEOH�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�DQG�WKLV�ZLOO�GLUHFW�REVHUYDWLRQV�DQG�H[SHULPHQWV���$Q�RYHUDOO�HFRV\VWHP�PRGHO�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�LV�QHHGHG��ZKHWKHU�VSDWLDOO\�UHVROYHG�RU�VLPSO\�D�VXE�EDVLQ�VFDOH�ER[�W\SH�PRGHO��H�J��EDVHG�RQ�DQ�HFRSDWK�W\SH�DSSURDFK���WKURXJK�ZKLFK�VFLHQWLILF�FRQVHQVXV�FDQ�EH�DFKLHYHG�FRQFHUQLQJ�WKH�KHDOWK�DQG�SURGXFWLYLW\�RI�WKH�&O\GH�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHP����

Page 40: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

��� 3B%,2',9(56,7<��

���� 15B%DFNJURXQG��7KH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD�KDV�D�ZLGH�UDQJH�RI�KDELWDWV�ZKLFK�VXSSRUW�D�ODUJH�GLYHUVLW\�RI�SODQW�DQG�DQLPDO�VSHFLHV��7KHUH�LV�VRPH�FRQFHUQ�WKDW�KXPDQ�DFWLYLWLHV�PD\�KDYH�DOUHDG\�KDG�HIIHFWV�RQ�WKRVH�VSHFLHV�DQG�KDELWDWV��WKURXJK�RYHUH[SORLWDWLRQ��KDELWDW�GHVWUXFWLRQ�DQG�HQYLURQPHQWDO�FKDQJH��+LVWRULFDOO\�WKH�&O\GH�KDV�VXSSRUWHG�ODUJH�SRSXODWLRQV�RI�KHUULQJ�DQG�ZKLWHILVK��ZKLFK�KDYH�LQ�UHFHQW�\HDUV�XQGHUJRQH�D�GUDPDWLF�GHFOLQH��DQG�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVKLQJ�LV�QRZ�ODUJHO\�GHSHQGHQW�RQ�VKHOOILVK�VSHFLHV��7KH�IDXQD�RI�WKH�&O\GH�GRHV�VKRZ�VRPH�DQRPDOLHV�ZKHQ�FRPSDUHG�ZLWK�WKDW�RI�WKH�ZHVW�FRDVW��SDUWLFXODUO\�WKH�&O\GH�DOJDO�IDXQD��ZLWK�VRPH�VSHFLHV�RQO\�IRXQG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��0DJJV���������$Q�H[WHQVLYH�DPRXQW�RI�PDULQH�IDXQDO�OLVWV�KDYH�EHHQ�SXEOLVKHG�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�RYHU�WKH�SDVW�FHQWXU\�IURP�JHQHUDO�DFFRXQWV�E\�&KXPOH\��������WR�PRUH�VSHFLILF�DFFRXQWV�RI�VSHFLILF�JURXSV��3RO\FKDHWD��&ODUN���������0ROOXVFD��$OOHQ���������ILVK��%DJHQDO���������$PSKLSRGD��0RRUH��������DQG�(FKLQRGHUPDWD��:LONLH���������7KH�VHDV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�DOVR�VXSSRUW�SRSXODWLRQV�RI�PHJDIDXQD�VXFK�DV�VHDOV��GROSKLQV��ZKDOHV�DQG�EDVNLQJ�VKDUNV��0DQ\�RI�WKHVHV�VSHFLHV�DQG�KDELWDWV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�DUH�UHFRJQLVHG�DV�EHLQJ�RI�QDWLRQDO�RU�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�LPSRUWDQFH�DQG�KDYH�EHHQ�DIIRUGHG�VRPH�OHYHO�RI�SURWHFWLRQ�XQGHU�OHJLVODWLRQ�WR�SURWHFW�PDULQH�ELRGLYHUVLW\���

)LJXUH�����/RFDWLRQ�RI�VSHFLHV�KRWVSRWV��VKRZQ�LQ�UHG��LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD�LGHQWLILHG�E\�/DQJPHDG�HW�DO����������7KH�ILYH�DUHDV�ZHUH�1RUWKHUQ�/RFK�)\QH��+6���DQG�/RFK�6KLUD��+6����,UYLQH�%D\��+6�������(DVW�RI�'XQRRQ�LQ�WKH�XSSHU�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��+6����(DVW�RI�5RWKHVD\��%XWH��+6����DQG�7KH�.\OHV�RI�%XWH��+6���DQG�/RFK�6WULYHQ��+6��DQG�����

Page 41: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

16B$�UHFHQW�UHYLHZ�RI�WKH�ELRGLYHUVLW\�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��/DQJPHDG�HW�DO���������LGHQWLILHG�DQG�FROODWHG�F���������VSHFLHV�DQG�KDELWDW�GDWD�UHFRUGV�IRU�WKH�DUHD��7KH�UHYLHZ�DOVR�DQDO\VHG�SDWWHUQV�RI�ELRGLYHUVLW\�DQG�GHWHUPLQHG�WKH�ORFDWLRQ�RI�µKRWVSRWV¶�GHILQHG�DV�DUHDV�RI�KLJK�VSHFLHV�DQG�KDELWDW�ULFKQHVV�WKDW�LQFOXGH�UHSUHVHQWDWLYH��UDUH�DQG�WKUHDWHQHG�IHDWXUHV��5RVV�HW�DO����������7KH�ORFDWLRQV�RI�WKH�VSHFLHV�KRWVSRWV�LGHQWLILHG�E\�WKLV�VWXG\�DUH�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUH������,W�LV�WKH�SXUSRVH�RI�WKH�IROORZLQJ�VHFWLRQ�WR�EULHIO\�GHVFULEH�WKH�ULFK�ELRGLYHUVLW\�RI�WKH�DUHD��GLVFXVV�FXUUHQW�WKUHDWV�DQG�WR�GHVFULEH�VRPH�RI�WKH�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�DQG�PDQDJHPHQW�PHDVXUHV�WKDW�DUH�DOUHDG\�LQ�SODFH�WR�SURWHFW�ELRGLYHUVLW\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH���

���� %HQWKLF�)DXQD��,Q�JHQHUDO��WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�EHQWKLF�SRSXODWLRQV�KDYH�EHHQ�JLYHQ�VHOHFWLYH�DWWHQWLRQ�DFFRUGLQJ�WR�WKH�KDELWDW�W\SH��ORFDWLRQ�DQG�UHVHDUFK�LQWHUHVWV�LQ�UHODWLRQ�WR�VSHFLILF�HQYLURQPHQWDO�SUREOHPV��$V�D�UHVXOW�PXFK�RI�WKH�ZRUN�RQ�WKH�EHQWKLF�IDXQD�RI�WKH�&O\GH�KDV�IRFXVVHG�RQ�WKH�VKDOORZHU�FRDVWDO�VHGLPHQWV�RI�WKH�URFN\�VKRUHV�DQG�VDQG\�ED\V��$�ZLGHVSUHDG�OLWWRUDO�VXUYH\�ZDV�XQGHUWDNHQ�LQ������E\�3DLVOH\�&ROOHJH�RI�7HFKQRORJ\�ZKR�H[DPLQHG����VLWHV�RI�ERWK�URFN\�DQG�VHGLPHQWDU\�W\SHV�RI�WKH�ORFKV�DQG�RSHQ�FRDVWV�RI�WKH�)LUWK��&RQQRU���������7KH�VXUYH\�VXJJHVWHG�WKDW�WKH�ULFKHVW�VHGLPHQW�VKRUHV�ZHUH�FRQFHQWUDWHG�LQ�WKH�PRUH�VKHOWHUHG�SDUWV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�VXFK�DV�/RFK�)\QH��6WULYHQ�DQG�*DUHORFK��7KH�VKRUHV�RQ�WKH�PRUH�H[SRVHG�FRDVWV�RI�$\UVKLUH��WKH�.LQW\UH�SHQLQVXOD�DQG�WKH�FRDVW�RI�$UUDQ�WHQG�WR�KDYH�IHZHU�LQGLYLGXDOV�DQG�OHVV�VSHFLHV�GLYHUVLW\��7KH�LQWHUWLGDO�LQIDXQD�LV�GRPLQDWHG�E\�WKH�ELYDOYHV�$QJXOXV�WHQXLV�DQG�&HUDVWRGHUPD�HGXOH��WKH�DPSKLSRG�EDWK\SRUHLD�VS��DQG�SRO\FKDHWHV�6FRORSORV�DUPLJHU��3\JRVSLR�HOHJDQV��$UHQLFROD�PDULQD�DQG�1��FLUURVD��7KH�LQWHUWLGDO�IDXQD�RI�VDQG\�EHDFKHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�KDYH�DOVR�EHHQ�VWXGLHG�E\�(OHIWKHULRX�DQG�0F,QW\UH��������H[DPLQLQJ�VKRUHV�ZKLFK�DUH�PRGHUDWHO\�H[SRVHG�RU�VKHOWHUHG��7KH�H[SRVHG�VKRUHV�ZHUH�GRPLQDWHG�E\�FUXVWDFHDQV�DQG�SRO\FKDHWHV�DQG�WKH�ELYDOYH�$QJXOXV�WHQXLV��2Q�WKH�VKHOWHUHG�EHDFKHV�FUXVWDFHDQV�ZHUH�JHQHUDOO\�OHVV�FRPPRQ�DQG�ELYDOYHV�UHSUHVHQWHG�WKH�JUHDWHVW�ELRPDVV��$UHDV�RI�SDUWLFXODUO\�KLJK�EHQWKLF�LQIDXQDO�ELRPDVV�DUH�FRQFHQWUDWHG�LQ�8SSHU�/RFK�/RQJ��/RFK�6WULYHQ��WKH�.\OHV�RI�%XWH��WKH�FHQWUDO�.LOEUDQQDQ�6RXQG�DQG�WKH�,UYLQH�DQG�$\U�%D\V���7KH�EHQWKRV�RI�WKH�GHHSHU�VHGLPHQWV�KDV�DOVR�EHHQ�LQYHVWLJDWHG�FHQWUHG�RQ�WKH�LQIOXHQFH�RI�WKH�*DUURFK�+HDG�GXPSLQJ�VLWH��/LIH�LQ�WKH�GHHS�PXGV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�LV�PDLQO\�EXULHG�LQ�WKH�VRIW��ILQH�VHGLPHQW��7KH�PRVW�FRQVSLFXRXV�VSHFLHV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�GHHS�PXGV�DUH�WKH�KHDUW�XUFKLQ�%ULVVRSVLV�O\ULIHUD��WKH�EULWWOH�VWDU�$PSKLXUD�FKLDMHL��WKH�ELYDOYHV¶�1XFXOD�WHQXLV�DQG�1��VXOFDWD��WKH�SRO\FKDHWHV�*O\FHUD�DOED��*��URX[LL�DQG�/XPEULQHUHLV�KLEHUQLFD��,Q�WKH�VKDOORZHU�VDQGLHU�PXGV�$��ILOLIRUPLV�WHQGV�WR�UHSODFH�$��FKLDMHL��(FKLQRFDUGLXP�FRUGDWXP�EHFRPHV�WKH�GRPLQDQW�KHDUW�XUFKLQ�DQG�WKH�PRVW�QXPHURXV�ELYDOYHV�LQ�DGGLWLRQ�WR�1��WHQXLV�DUH�7K\DVLUD�VSS���$OED�VSS��DQG�0\VHOOD�ELGHQWDWD��6HGLPHQWV�ZLWK�VLJQLILFDQW�DGPL[WXUHV�RI�JUDYHO�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�WHQG�WR�KDYH�WKH�EULWWOH�VWDUV�2SKLRWKUL[�IUDJLOLV��2SKLRSKROLV�DFXOHDWD�DQG�$PSKLSKROLV�VTXDPDWD��7KH�VXUIDFHV�RI�WKH�PXG�LQ�WKH�ORFKV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUH�DOVR�WKH�KDELWDW�RI�WKH�VSHFWDFXODU�EXUURZLQJ�DQHPRQH��WKH�ILUHZRUNV�DQHPRQH��3DFK\FHULDQWKXV�PXOWLSOLFDWXV����:LUHZHHG��6DUJDVVXP�PXWLFXP��ZDV�ILUVW�IRXQG�LQ�/RFK�5\DQ�LQ������DQG�VLQFH�WKHQ�KDV�EHHQ�UHFRUGHG�LQ�D�QXPEHU�RI�ORFDWLRQV�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��,W�LV�D�IDVW�JURZLQJ�ODUJH�ROLYH�EURZQ�VHDZHHG�WKDW�FRPSHWHV�ZLWK�QDWLYH�VHDZHHGV�WKURXJK�RYHUJURZLQJ��VKDGLQJ�DQG�DEUDVLRQ�DQG�FDQ�DOWHU�WKH�HFRORJ\�RI�WKH�KDELWDW��,Q�KDUERXUV�DQG�VKDOORZ�ZDWHU�LW�LV�FRQVLGHUHG�D�QXLVDQFH�ZKHUH�ODUJH�IORDWLQJ�PDVVHV�FDQ�EHFRPH�D�KD]DUG�WR�YHVVHOV�WKURXJK�WKH�HQWDQJOHPHQW�RI�SURSHOOHUV�DQG�EORFNLQJ�RI�HQJLQH�FRROLQJ�V\VWHPV��$VKWRQ�HW�DO�����������7KH�JDSLQJ�ILOH�VKHOO��/LPDULD�KLDQV��LV�D�VPDOO�ELYDOYH��GLVWLQJXLVKHG�E\�ORQJ�RUDQJH�ILODPHQWRXV�WHQWDFOHV��ZKLFK�KDV�EHHQ�UHFRUGHG�DORQJ�WKH�ZHVW�FRDVW�RI�6FRWODQG�DURXQG�.LQW\UH�DQG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��+XJKHV�HW�DO����������,Q�D�VWXG\�E\�+DOO�6SHQFHU�DQG�0RRUH�

Page 42: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

�������LW�ZDV�FRQFOXGHG�WKDW�WKH�JDSLQJ�ILOH�VKHOO�KDV�GLVDSSHDUHG�IURP�UHJLRQV�ZKHUH�LW�ZDV�RQFH�FRPPRQ�LQFOXGLQJ�$\UVKLUH��WKH�,VOH�RI�%XWH�DQG�6WUDYDQDQ�%D\��7KH�GHFOLQH�RI�ILOH�VKHOO�UHHIV�LQ�WKLV�DUHD�ZDV�DWWULEXWHG��E\�+DOO�6SHQFHU���������WR�WKH�GHVWUXFWLYH�HIIHFWV�RI�VFDOORS�GUHGJLQJ��7KH�ILOH�VKHOO�KDV�D�WKLQ�GHOLFDWH�VKHOO�DQG�GDPDJHG�LQGLYLGXDOV�GLVORGJHG�IURP�WKHLU�QHVWV�DUH�UDSLGO\�FRQVXPHG�E\�VFDYHQJHUV��7KH�ILOH�VKHOO�UHHIV�DOVR�KDYH�HFRORJLFDO�LPSRUWDQFH�DV�WKH\�VXSSRUW�D�ULFK�IDXQD�RI�VPDOO�LQYHUWHEUDWHV�DQG�SURYLGH�DWWDFKPHQW�VXUIDFHV�IRU�DOJDH�DQG�ODUJHU�VHVVLOH�RUJDQLVPV���6HD�SHQV�DUH�FRORQLDO�FQLGDULDQV�IRXQG�RQ�VDQG\�DQG�PXGG\�VHGLPHQWV�DURXQG�WKH�%ULWLVK�,VOH�DQG�LQ�PDQ\�6FRWWLVK�VHD�ORFKV��7KH\�DUH�W\SLFDOO\�IRXQG�LQ�DUHDV�RI�KLJK�VDOLQLW\��KLJKO\�VKHOWHUHG�DUHDV�ZKHUH�WLGDO�VWUHDPV�DUH�QHJOLJLEOH��6RPH�DUHDV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�PD\�SURYLGH�LGHDO�KDELWDWV�IRU�VHD�SHQV��7KHUH�DUH�WKUHH�VHD�SHQ�VSHFLHV�ZKLFK�RFFXU�LQ�6FRWWLVK�ZDWHUV�WDOO�VHD�SHQV�)XQLFXOLQD�TXDGUDQJXODULV��9LUJXODULD�PLUDELOLV�DQG�3HQQDWXOD�SKRVSKRUHD��7KH�WZR�KXPDQ�DFWLYLWLHV�ZKLFK�DUH�PRVW�OLNHO\�WR�DIIHFW�WKLV�ELRWRSH�DUH�1HSKURSV�WUDZOLQJ�DQG�RUJDQLF�SROOXWLRQ��2I�WKH�WKUHH�VHD�SHQ�VSHFLHV�)XQLFXOLQD�TXDGUDQJXODULV�LV�OLNHO\�WR�EH�WKH�PRVW�YXOQHUDEOH�WR�WUDZO�GDPDJH�GXH�WR�LWV�EULWWOH�VWDON�DQG�LQDELOLW\�WR�UHWUDFW�LQWR�WKH�VHGLPHQW��+HDY\�RUJDQLF�SROOXWLRQ�FDQ�H[FOXGH�VHD�SHQV�IURP�DQ�DUHD��ZLWK�VHYHUH�R[\JHQ�GHSOHWLRQ�SUREDEO\�KDYLQJ�GDPDJLQJ�FRQVHTXHQFH�WR�VHD�SHQV���

���� 17B0DHUO�EHGV��0DHUO�EHGV�DUH�OLYLQJ�VHGLPHQWV�FKDUDFWHULVHG�E\�DFFXPXODWLRQV�RI�XQDWWDFKHG�FDOFDUHRXV�UHG�DOJDH��&RUDOOLQDOHV��5KRGRSK\WD���DOVR�NQRZQ�DV�UKRGROLWK�EHGV��%DUEHUD�HW�DO���������6WHOOHU�DQG�)RVWHU���������7KH\�RFFXU�LQ�PDQ\�HQYLURQPHQWV�LQFOXGLQJ�WURSLFDO��WHPSHUDWH�DQG�SRODU�HQYLURQPHQWV��,Q�(XURSH�WKH\�DUH�SDWFKLO\�GLVWULEXWHG�RFFXUULQJ�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�DQG�DORQJ�WKH�:HVWHUQ�$WODQWLF�FRDVW���0DHUO�EHGV�DSSHDU�DV�SDWFK\��SRRUO\�VRUWHG�DQG�FRPSOH[�VHGLPHQW�WKDW�GLIIHU�JUHDWO\�IURP�PRUH�XQLIRUP�KDELWDWV�VXFK�DV�PXG��7KH�LQWHUORFNLQJ�RI�WKH�EUDQFKLQJ�WKDOOL�FUHDWHV�D�KLJKO\�FRPSOH[�KDELWDW�WKDW�SURYLGHV�QXPHURXV�PLFURKDELWDWV�IRU�PDFURIDXQDO�RUJDQLVPV��6WHOOHU�HW�DO����������7KH\�KDYH�KLJK�HFRORJLFDO�LPSRUWDQFH�DV�WKH\�VXSSRUW�D�ZLGH�UDQJH�RI�VSHFLHV��VRPH�RI�ZKLFK�PD\�EH�XQLTXH�WR�WKLV�KDELWDW��.HHJDQ���������0DQ\�VWXGLHV�KDYH�UHSRUWHG�UDUH�DQG�XQXVXDO�VSHFLHV�OLYLQJ�LQ�DVVRFLDWLRQ�ZLWK�PDHUO�EHGV��WKH\�FUHDWH�DUHDV�RI�KLJK�ELRGLYHUVLW\�DQG�KHQFH�WKH�EHGV�DUH�RI�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�VLJQLILFDQFH��%,20$(5/���������,Q�DGGLWLRQ��PDHUO�DUH�VORZ�JURZLQJ�DQG�DQ�HFRORJLFDOO\�IUDJLOH�KDELWDW�FRQVLGHUHG�WR�EH�D�QRQ�UHQHZDEOH�UHVRXUFH��$�VWXG\�E\�*UDOO�HW�DO���������GHPRQVWUDWHG�WKH�KLJK�SURGXFWLYLW\�RI�WKH�PDHUO�EHG�HQYLURQPHQW�DV�VKRZQ�E\�WKH�FR�GRPLQDQFH�RI�HQGREHQWKLF�SRO\FKDHWHV��(XSRO\PQLD�QHEXORVD��1��ODWHULFHXV���ELYDOYHV��9��YHUUXFRVD��9HQHUXSLV�DXUHXV��DQG�6LSXQFXOLGV�ZLWK�HSLEHQWKLF�FUXVWDFHDQV��0HOLWLG�DPSKLSRGV��3��ORQJLFRUQLV��HWF����0ROOXVFV��FKLWRQV�RU�JDVWURSRGV��DQG�VSRQJHV���0DHUO�EHGV�FDQ�DOVR�EH�RI�LPSRUWDQFH�WR�ILVKHULHV��SURYLGLQJ�QXUVHU\�JURXQGV�IRU�FRPPHUFLDO�VSHFLHV�RI�ILVK�DQG�VKHOOILVK��+DOO�6SHQFHU�HW�DO����������,Q�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��WKH�PDHUO�EHGV�FRLQFLGH�ZLWK�PDQ\�RI�WKH�SURGXFWLYH�ILVKLQJ�JURXQGV�IRU�VFDOORSV�DQG�LQIDXQDO�ELYDOYHV�DQG�DUH�XQGHU�WKUHDW�IURP�GUHGJLQJ�DQG�ERWWRP�WUDZOLQJ�LQ�VSLWH�RI�WKHLU�HFRORJLFDO�DQG�HFRQRPLF�LPSRUWDQFH��%DUEHUD�HW�DO����������0DHUO�EHGV�DUH�NQRZQ�WR�EH�KLJKO\�VHQVLWLYH�WR�SK\VLFDO�GLVWXUEDQFH�DQG�KDYH�D�YHU\�ORZ�UHJHQHUDWLYH�FDSDFLW\�DQG�WKXV�PD\�UHTXLUH�SURWHFWLRQ�WKURXJK�DSSURSULDWH�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�PDQDJHPHQW�VWUDWHJLHV���,W�LV�WKRXJKW�WKDW�WKH�8.��DQG�SDUWLFXODUO\�6FRWODQG��LV�KRPH�WR�PDQ\�RI�WKH�PRVW�H[WHQVLYH�PDHUO�EHGV�LQ�(XURSH��,W�RFFXUV�RQ�H[SRVHG�ZHVW�FRDVWV��VXFK�DV�WKRVH�LQ�6FRWODQG��,UHODQG�DQG�%ULWWDQ\��EXW�LW�LV�DEVHQW�IURP�ODUJH�DUHDV�RI�(XURSHDQ�ZDWHUV��VXFK�DV�PRVW�RI�WKH�1RUWK�6HD��WKH�%DOWLF��WKH�,ULVK�6HD�DQG�WKH�HDVWHUQ�(QJOLVK�&KDQQHO��%LUNHWW�HW�DO����������

Page 43: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

+RZHYHU��VWXGLHV�ZKLFK�TXDQWLI\�WKH�DUHDV�FRYHUHG�E\�PDHUO�EHGV�LQ�DQ\WKLQJ�RWKHU�WKDQ�YHU\�ORFDO�VWXGLHV��DUH�UDUH���0DHUO�EHG�KDELWDWV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��7KHUH�KDYH�EHHQ�VHYHUDO�REVHUYDWLRQV�RI�PDHUO�EHGV��ERWK�GHDG�DQG�OLYLQJ��LQ�WKH�&O\GH��+RZHYHU��D�ILUVW�TXHVWLRQ�LV�ZKDW�KDELWDWV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�FRXOG�SRWHQWLDOO\�EH�VXLWDEOH�IRU�PDHUO"��7KH�SK\VLFDO�HQYLURQPHQW�QHHGHG�E\�OLYLQJ�PDHUO�KDV�EHHQ�GLIILFXOW�WR�GHWHUPLQH��DV�LW¶V�VORZ�JURZWK��a�PP�SHU�\HDU��PDNHV�H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ�GLIILFXOW���,Q�WHUPV�RI�VHD�EHG�W\SH��%LUNHWW�HW�DO���������VXJJHVW�WKDW�0DHUO�EHGV�FDQ�EH�IRXQG�LQ�DVVRFLDWLRQ�ZLWK�D�UDQJH�RI�GLIIHUHQW�VHGLPHQWV��YDU\LQJ�LQ�VL]H�IURP�ILQH�PXG�WR�FRDUVH�JUDYHO�DQG�SHEEOHV���0DHUO�FDQ�QRW�ZLWKVWDQG�H[SRVXUH��WKXV�RQO\�IRUPV�EHORZ�WKH�ORZ�ZDWHU�OHYHO��%LUNHWW�HW�DO����������$V�PDHUO�LV�DQ�DOJDH��LW�UHTXLUHV�OLJKW�WR�JURZ��7KXV�OLJKW�DYDLODELOLW\��DQG�KHQFH�ZDWHU�WXUELGLW\��DUH�SDUDPHWHUV�ZKLFK�ZLOO�OLPLW�ZKHUH�PDHUO�FDQ�OLYH��7KHVH��LQ�WXUQ��ZLOO�OLPLW�WKH�GHSWK�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�PDHUO�DV�LQ�FOHDUHU�ZDWHUV��PDHUO�ZLOO�EH�DEOH�WR�OLYH�DW�GHHSHU�GHSWKV�FRPSDUHG�WR�PRUH�WXUELG�ZDWHUV��$�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�VWXG\�RI�WKH�GHSWK�UDQJH�ZLWKLQ�ZKLFK�PDHUO�EHGV�DUH�IRXQG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�KDV�QRW�EHHQ�SHUIRUPHG��DOWKRXJK�+DOO�6SHQFHU��������VXJJHVWHG�D�UDQJH�RI�����P��%LUNHWW�HW�DO����������0DHUO�KDV�QRW�EHHQ�IRXQG�H[WHQVLYHO\�EHORZ���P�LQ�8.�ZDWHUV�DQG�LV�JHQHUDOO\�IRXQG�VKDOORZHU�WKDQ���P��%LUNHWW�HW�DO�����������$�IXUWKHU�UHTXLUHPHQW�LV�LQ�WHUPV�RI�FXUUHQWV�QHDU�WKH�VHD�EHG��0DHUO�UHTXLUHV�D�PRGHUDWH�IORZ�RI�ZDWHU��EXW�FDQ�QRW�ZLWKVWDQG�LQWHQVH�FXUUHQW�RU�ZDYH�DFWLRQ��%LUNHWW�HW�DO����������7KHUHIRUH�LW�ZLOO�QRW�EH�IRXQG�LQ�HLWKHU�ZDWHU�WKDW�KDV�OLPLWHG�PRYHPHQW��RU�H[WUHPH�VHD�EHG�FXUUHQWV�IURP�HLWKHU�WLGH�RU�ZDYHV��7KLV�LPSOLHV�WKHUH�DUH�PLQLPXP�DQG�PD[LPXP�VHD�EHG�FXUUHQW�WROHUDQFHV�RI�OLYLQJ�PDHUO��DOWKRXJK�WKHVH�KDYH�QRW�EHHQ�TXDQWLWDWLYHO\�GHWHUPLQHG���:LOVRQ�HW�DO���������VXJJHVW�WKDW�PDHUO�LV�QRW�DV�VXVFHSWLEOH�WR�FKDQJHV�LQ�WHPSHUDWXUH��VDOLQLW\�RU�KHDY\�PHWDO�SROOXWLRQ�DV�ZDV�SUHYLRXVO\�WKRXJKW��+RZHYHU��D�FULWLFDO�IDFWRU�ZDV�VPRWKHULQJ�E\�ILQH�VHGLPHQW��7KXV�PDHUO�ZLOO�QRW�EH�IRXQG�ZKHUH�WKHUH�DUH�QDWXUDO�VRXUFHV�RI�VXFK�VHGLPHQW��IRU�H[DPSOH�QHDU�ULYHU�PRXWKV��ZKHUH�WKHUH�LV�QDWXUDO�GHSRVLWLRQ�RI�ILQH�VHGLPHQW��IRU�H[DPSOH�ZLWKLQ�SHUVLVWHQW�J\UHV��RU�ZKHUH�WKHUH�LV�IUHTXHQW�UHVXVSHQVLRQ�RI�ILQH�VHGLPHQWV�E\�WLGH�RU�ZDYH�DFWLRQ��6HGLPHQWDWLRQ�IURP�KXPDQ�DFWLYLW\��LQFOXGLQJ�WUDZOLQJ��GUHGJLQJ��VHGLPHQW�H[WUDFWLRQ��VHZDJH�GLVFKDUJHV�RU�ILVK�IDUPLQJ�ZLOO�NLOO�PDHUO��:LOVRQ�HW�DO����������:LWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH�VWXGLHV�KDYH�IRXQG�OLYLQJ��.DPHQRV�HW�DO���������DQG�GHDG��+DOO�6SHQFHU��������PDHUO�EHGV��DV�ZHOO�DV�OLYLQJ�PDHUO�EHGV��EXW�KHDYLO\�LPSDFWHG�E\�WKH�HIIHFWV�RI�ILVKLQJ��SULPDULO\�VFDOORS�GUHGJLQJ��+DOO�6SHQFHU�DQG�0RRUH����������6XUYH\V�IRU�PDHUO�FRXOG�LQFOXGH�WKRVH�E\�GLYHU��GLUHFW�UHPRWH�SK\VLFDO�PHWKRGV�IURP�YHVVHOV�VXFK�DV�JUDEV�RU�WRZHG�GUHGJHV��GLUHFW�YLVXDO�PHWKRGV�IURP�YHVVHOV�VXFK�DV�ORZHUHG�FDPHUDV�RU�WRZHG�YLGHR��DQG�LQGLUHFW�UHPRWH�VHQVLQJ�IURP�YHVVHOV�XVLQJ�DFRXVWLF�PHWKRGV�LQFOXGLQJ�JURXQG�GHWHUPLQDWLRQ�DFRXVWLFV��H�J��5R[$QQ����6WXGLHV�VXFK�DV�WKH�%,20$(5/�SURJUDPPH�DUH�DGYDQFLQJ�RXU�RYHUDOO�XQGHUVWDQGLQJ�RI�PDHUO�DQG�ZLOO�KRSHIXOO\�DOORZ�PDQDJHPHQW�RI�PDHUO�WR�KDYH�D�ILUPHG�VFLHQWLILF�EDVLV���

���� 18B6HDELUGV��

Page 44: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

6HDELUGV�DUH�VSHFLHV�RI�ELUGV�ZKLFK�KDYH�DGDSWHG�WR�H[SORLW�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�IRRG�DYDLODEOH�IURP�WKH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW��7KH\�IDOO�LQWR�WZR�EURDG�FDWHJRULHV��WKRVH�ZKLFK�VSHFLDOLVH�LQ�IHHGLQJ�IURP�WKH�DLU�SLFNLQJ�XS�IRRG�IURP�WKH�YLFLQLW\�RI�WKH�VHD�VXUIDFH��VXFK�DV�WHUQV�DQG�WKRVH�ZKLFK�GLYH�IRU�IRRG�VXFK�DV�JDQQHWV�ZKLFK�PD\�VZLP�XQGHUZDWHU�LQ�SXUVXLW�RI�WKHLU�SUH\��0RQDJKDQ�DQG�=RQIULOOR���������+RZHYHU��DOO�VHDELUGV�DUH�GHSHQGHQW�XSRQ�WKH�ODQG�WR�EUHHG�DQG�WKHLU�GLVWULEXWLRQV�DUH�JRYHUQHG�E\�WKH�FRQVWUDLQWV�RI�WKLV�HQYLURQPHQW��ZKHUH�WKHUH�LV�D�VDIH�SODFH�WR�QHVW�ZLWK�VXIILFLHQW�IRRG�UHVRXUFHV�DYDLODEOH�LQ�WKH�VXUURXQGLQJ�ZDWHUV��$OWKRXJK�WKH�)LUWK�LV�KRPH�WR�WKUHH�TXDUWHUV�RI�WKH�8.V�EUHHGLQJ�VHDELUGV��WKH�&O\GH�FRDVW�GRHV�QRW�VXSSRUW�D�PDMRU�SURSRUWLRQ�RI�PRVW�VSHFLHV�RI�WKH�6FRWWLVK�EUHHGLQJ�SRSXODWLRQ��7KLV�LV�ODUJHO\�GXH�WR�WKH�ORZ�O\LQJ�WRSRJUDSK\�RI�WKH�FRDVW�SURYLGLQJ�DFFHVVLELOLW\�RI�WKH�&O\GH�FRDVW�WR�WKH�ODUJH�KXPDQ�SRSXODWLRQ�ZKLFK�UHVLGH�LQ�FHQWUDO�6FRWODQG��0RQDJKDQ�DQG�=RQIULOOR����������7KH�SULPDU\�IRRGV�RI�VHDELUGV�DUH�GHQVHO\�VFKRROLQJ�OLSLG�ULFK�SHODJLF�ILVKHV��FUXVWDFHDQV�DQG�FHSKDORSRGV�LQ�WKH�XSSHU�PLG�ZDWHU�FROXPQ��+XQW�HW�DO����������7KXV�FKDQJHV�LQ�WKH�DYDLODELOLW\�RI�SHODJLF�ILVK�PD\�DIIHFW�WKH�EUHHGLQJ�ELRORJ\�RI�WKHVH�ELUGV��+HUULQJ�DUH�HVSHFLDOO\�LPSRUWDQW�WR�WKH�NLWWLZDNH�DQG�WKH�GHFOLQH�LQ�KHUULQJ�VWRFNV�PD\�LQ�SDUW�EH�UHVSRQVLEOH�IRU�WKH�GHFOLQH�LQ�NLWWLZDNHV�LQ�VRPH�DUHDV���$LOVD�&UDLJ��WKH�FOLIIV�RI�WKH�$\UVKLUH�FRDVW�DQG�6DQGD�,VODQG�ORFDWHG�RII�WKH�VRXWKHDVW�FRDVW�RI�.LQW\UH��DUH�WKH�PRVW�QRWDEOH�VHDELUG�VLWHV�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��$LOVD�&UDLJ�DQG�6DQGD�,VODQG�DUH�ERWK�GHVLJQDWHG�6LWHV�RI�6SHFLDO�6FLHQWLILF�,QWHUHVW��666,V��VHW�XS�IRU�WKH�SURWHFWLRQ�RI�WKH�EUHHGLQJ�VHDELUGV��)LVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�NQRZQ�WR�EHQHILW�VHDELUGV�E\�SURYLGLQJ�DQ�HDVLO\�H[SORLWDEOH�IRRG�VRXUFH�LQ�WKH�IRUP�RI�GLVFDUGV��5HJXODU�VFDYHQJHUV�LQFOXGH�WKH�IXOPDU��)XOPDUXV�JODFLDOLV���WKH�JUHDW�EODFN�EDFNHG�JXOO��/DUXV�PDULQXV��DQG�WKH�NLWWLZDNH��5LVVD�WULGDFW\OD��ZKLFK�REWDLQ�D�ODUJH�SURSRUWLRQ�RI�WKHLU�IRRG�IURP�GLVFDUGV��WKH�KHUULQJ�JXOO��/DUXV�DUJHQWDWXV���JUHDW�VNXD��6WHUFRUDULXV�VNXD��DQG�JDQQHW��0RUXV�EDVVDQXV��DOVR�FRPPRQO\�VFDYHQJH�EHKLQG�ILVKLQJ�YHVVHOV���

���� 19B0HJDIDXQD��7KH�EDVNLQJ�VKDUN��&HWRUKLQXV�PD[LPXV��LV�WKH�ZRUOG¶V�VHFRQG�ODUJHVW�ILVK�DQG�LV�UHJXODUO\�REVHUYHG�RII�WKH�ZHVWHUQ�%ULWLVK�DQG�,ULVK�FRDVW��PRVWO\�EHWZHHQ�$SULO�DQG�2FWREHU��,W�LV�HQWLUHO\�SODQNWLYRURXV�DQG�LQ�6FRWODQG�EDVNLQJ�VKDUNV�DUH�UHJXODUO\�VLJKWHG�DURXQG�WKH�RXWHU�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�ZKHUH�ZDWHUV�DUH�SODQNWRQ�ULFK��6SHHGLH�HW�DO����������,Q�SDUWLFXODU�WKH�FRDVWOLQH�RI�WKH�,VOH�RI�$UUDQ�LV�D�µKRWVSRW¶�IRU�EDVNLQJ�VKDUN�VLJKWLQJV��7KH�VSDWLR�WHPSRUDO�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�EDVNLQJ�VKDUNV�FDQ�EH�GLUHFWO\�DWWULEXWHG�WR�FKDQJHV�LQ�]RRSODQNWRQ�DEXQGDQFHV�DQG�WKLV�FDQ�KDYH�LPSRUWDQW�LPSOLFDWLRQV�IRU�WKH�PDQDJHPHQW�DQG�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�RI�WKH�VSHFLHV��7KRP�HW�DO�����������+LVWRULFDOO\�WKH�EDVNLQJ�VKDUN�ZDV�H[SORLWHG�IRU�WKH�KLJK�RLO�FRQWHQW�RI�LWV�OLYHU��ZKLFK�ZDV�XVHG�LQ�WKH�VWHHO��PHGLFDO��DQG�FRVPHWLF�LQGXVWULHV��DV�ZHOO�DV�DV�D�IXHO�IRU�OLJKWLQJ��$�ILVKHU\�UHPDLQHG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�XQWLO�WKH�����V��ZKHQ�GHFOLQLQJ�QXPEHUV�DQG�UHGXFHG�SXEOLF�VXSSRUW�PHDQW�WKH�ILVKHU\�ZDV�QR�ORQJHU�YLDEOH��7KH�EDVNLQJ�VKDUN�LV�QRZ�SURWHFWHG�ZLWKLQ�WKH����QDXWLFDO�PLOHV�OLPLW�RII�6FRWODQG�XQGHU�WKH�:LOGOLIH�DQG�&RXQWU\VLGH�$FW�������3RWHQWLDO�WKUHDWV�WR�EDVNLQJ�VKDUN�SRSXODWLRQV�LQFOXGH�E\�FDWFK�LQ�ILVKLQJ�QHWV�DQG�GLVWXUEDQFH�RU�LPSDFW�ZLWK�YHVVHOV��7KH�EDVNLQJ�VKDUNV�VORZ�JURZWK�UDWH�DQG�ODWH�VH[XDO�PDWXULW\�FRXSOHG�ZLWK�RYHUILVKLQJ�KDV�UHVXOWHG�LQ�WKH�VKDUN�EHFRPLQJ�UDUH�LQ�DUHDV�ZKHUH�LW�ZDV�RQFH�FRPPRQ��$V�D�UHVXOW�RI�WKH�GHFOLQH�LQ�QXPEHUV�WKH�VSHFLHV�TXDOLILHV�DV�YXOQHUDEOH�RQ�D�JOREDO�OHYHO�DQG�WKH�%ULWLVK�SRSXODWLRQ�LV�FODVVLILHG�DV�µHQGDQJHUHG¶�RQ�WKH�,8&1�5HG�/LVW���,Q�WKH�ZDWHUV�RI�WKH�&O\GH��ILIWHHQ�VSHFLHV�RI�FHWDFHDQV�KDYH�EHHQ�UHFRUGHG�VLQFH�������+RZHYHU��WKHUH�LV�D�ODFN�RI�GDWD�DYDLODEOH�RQ�WKH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�FHWDFHDQV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�ZKLFK�

Page 45: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

OLPLWV�WKH�DELOLW\�WR�GHWHUPLQH�WUHQGV�DQG�FXUUHQW�VWDWXV��$Q\�UHOLDEOH�VFLHQWLILF�GDWD�LV�UHVWULFWHG�WR�REVHUYDWLRQV�RI�GLVWULEXWLRQ�UDWKHU�WKDQ�GHWHUPLQLQJ�QXPHULFDO�DEXQGDQFH���

���� 20B7KUHDWV�WR�%LRGLYHUVLW\��6RPH�RI�WKH�PRVW�VLJQLILFDQW�QRQ�ILVKLQJ�WKUHDWV�WR�ELRGLYHUVLW\�DUH�RXWOLQHG�LQ�WKH�IROORZLQJ�VHFWLRQ��7KH�HIIHFWV�RI�ILVKLQJ�DUH�GLVFXVVHG�LQ�6HFWLRQV���DQG������������ 46B,QYDVLYH�VSHFLHV���1RQ�QDWLYH�LQYDVLYH�VSHFLHV�DUH�FRQVLGHUHG�E\�WKH�81�WR�SRVH�D�JUHDW�WKUHDW�WR�ELRGLYHUVLW\��5HFHQWO\�WKHUH�KDV�EHHQ�DQ�LQFUHDVH�LQ�WKH�LQFLGHQFH�RI�QRQ�QDWLYH�PDULQH�VSHFLHV�LQ�FRDVWDO�DUHDV�DURXQG�WKH�8.�ZLWK�SRWHQWLDOO\�GDPDJLQJ�LPSDFWV�RQ�QDWLYH�IORUD�DQG�IDXQD�LQFOXGLQJ�FRPPHUFLDO�VSHFLHV��7KHVH�HIIHFWV�FDQ�LQFOXGH�FRPSHWLWLRQ�ZLWK�QDWLYH�VSHFLHV�IRU�IRRG�DQG�VSDFH��DOWHUDWLRQ�RI�KDELWDWV��FKDQJHV�LQ�ZDWHU�TXDOLW\�DQG�WUDQVPLVVLRQ�RI�GLVHDVH��'RQQHOO\�HW�DO���������5HFHQW�LQWURGXFWLRQV�LQWR�WKH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW�RI�WKH�&O\GH�LQFOXGH�WKH�FRUG�JUDVV�6SDUWLQD�DQJOLFD�ZKLFK�FRORQLVHV�VKDOORZ�PXGIODWV�DQG�FRPSHWHV�ZLWK�WKH�VHDJUDVV�=RVWHUD�QROWLL��7ZR�RI�WKH�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW�YHFWRUV�RI�LQYDVLYH�VSHFLHV�DUH�VKLSSLQJ�DQG�WKH�DTXDFXOWXUH�LQGXVWU\���������� 47B&OLPDWH�FKDQJH��,Q�WKH�ODVW����\HDUV�FOLPDWH�FKDQJH�KDV�DOWHUHG�WKH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�DQG�DEXQGDQFH�RI�PDQ\�PDULQH�VSHFLHV��0DU&OLP��������DQG�WKHUH�LV�QRZ�LQFUHDVLQJ�FRQFHUQ�RI�WKH�LPSDFWV�RI�FOLPDWH�FKDQJH�RQ�WKH�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�DQG�PDQDJHPHQW�RI�PDULQH�ELRGLYHUVLW\��$V�WHPSHUDWXUHV�LQFUHDVH�D�JHQHUDO�VKLIW�LQ�VSHFLHV�GLVWULEXWLRQV�LV�H[SHFWHG�DV�VSHFLHV�UHVSRQG�WR�WKH�FKDQJHV�RI�VXLWDEOH�µFOLPDWH�VSDFH¶�DYDLODEOH�WR�WKHP��)LHOGV�HW�DO���������0DU&OLP���������,QGLYLGXDO�VSHFLHV�DUH�OLNHO\�WR�UHVSRQG�WR�WHPSHUDWXUH�LQFUHDVHV�DW�GLIIHUHQW�UDWHV�GXH�WR�GLIIHUHQFHV�LQ�WKHLU�PHWDEROLVP�DQG�SK\VLRORJLFDO�SURFHVVHV��6LPV�HW�DO����������,Q�DGGLWLRQ��FOLPDWH�FKDQJH�FRXOG�FDXVH�ORFDO�H[WLQFWLRQ�RI�VSHFLHV�WKDW�DUH�XQDEOH�WR�DGDSW�WR�IOXFWXDWLRQV�LQ�WKHLU�SK\VLFDO�HQYLURQPHQW���

���� 21B3URWHFWLRQ�RI�%LRGLYHUVLW\��,Q�RUGHU�WR�HIIHFWLYHO\�PDQDJH�KDELWDWV�DQG�RU�VSHFLHV�RI�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�LPSRUWDQFH��PRQLWRULQJ�DQG�UHJXODWLRQ�RI�WKRVH�KXPDQ�DFWLYLWLHV�OLNHO\�WR�GDPDJH�WKH�DUHDV�RI�LQWHUHVW�LV�HVVHQWLDO���&ULWHULD�IRU�DVVHVVLQJ�WKH�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�D�KDELWDW�RU�VSHFLHV�DUH�D�PDWWHU�RI�FRQWLQXHG�GHEDWH��6XFK�FULWHULD�DUH�HVSHFLDOO\�GLIILFXOW�WR�HVWDEOLVK�LQ�WKH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW�ZKHUH�EDVLF�NQRZOHGJH�RI�HFRV\VWHP�IXQFWLRQ�LV�VWLOO�DW�D�UHODWLYHO\�ORZ�OHYHO��+XJKHV���������7KH�8.�DOUHDG\�KDV�REOLJDWLRQV�WR�SURWHFW�LQWHUQDWLRQDOO\�LPSRUWDQW�VSHFLHV�DQG�KDELWDWV�WKDW�DUH�OLVWHG�LQ�D�YDULHW\�RI�GLUHFWLYHV�DQG�FRQYHQWLRQV��6FRWODQG�KDV�EHHQ�DFWLYH�LQ�HVWDEOLVKLQJ�FORVHG�DUHDV�WR�SURWHFW�ELRGLYHUVLW\��IRU�H[DPSOH��WKURXJK�WKH�HVWDEOLVKPHQW�RI�D�1R�7DNH�=RQH��17=��DW�/DPODVK�%D\��$UUDQ��7KH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD�DOVR�FRQWDLQV�D�ZLGH�UDQJH�RI�SURWHFWHG�VLWHV�RI�QDWLRQDO�DQG�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�LPSRUWDQFH�IRU�ERWK�ELRORJLFDO�DQG�RUQLWKRORJLFDO�UHDVRQV��7KHUH�DUH�WKUHH�W\SHV�RI�SURWHFWHG�DUHDV�UHODWHG�WR�WKH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��6LWHV�RI�6SHFLDO�6FLHQWLILF�,QWHUHVW��666,���6SHFLDO�3URWHFWLRQ�$UHDV��63$��DQG�0DULQH�&RQVXOWDWLRQ�$UHDV��0&$����

Page 46: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

666,¶V�DUH�DUHDV�RI�ODQG�RU�ZDWHU�WKDW�6FRWWLVK�1DWXUDO�+HULWDJH��61+��FRQVLGHUV�WR�EHVW�UHSUHVHQW�RXU�QDWXUDO�KHULWDJH�±�LWV�GLYHUVLW\�RI�SODQWV��DQLPDOV�DQG�KDELWDWV�HVSHFLDOO\�WKRVH�RI�JUHDWHVW�YDOXH�WR�ZLOGOLIH�FRQVHUYDWLRQ��7KH\�DUH�GHVLJQDWHG�XQGHU�WKH�1DWXUH�&RQVHUYDWLRQ��6FRWODQG��$FW������DQG�DUH�LQWHQGHG�WR�IRUP�WKH�HVVHQWLDO�EXLOGLQJ�EORFNV�RI�6FRWODQG¶V�SURWHFWHG�DUHDV�IRU�QDWXUH�FRQVHUYDWLRQ��61+�ZHEVLWH���������7KHUH�DUH�FXUUHQWO\�������666,V�LQ�6FRWODQG�RI�ZKLFK�WKHUH�DUH����WKDW�SURWHFW�VRPH�DVSHFW�RI�WKH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW��H�J��6HDELUGV��VDOWPDUVK��RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD��VHH�7DEOH��������63$¶V�DUH�GHVLJQDWHG�DUHDV�RI�WKH�WHUUHVWULDO�DQG�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW�LQ�UHVSRQVH�WR�WKH�:LOG�%LUGV�'LUHFWLYH�ZKLFK�DLPV�WR�SURWHFW�WKH�KDELWDWV�RI�PLJUDWRU\�DQG�WKUHDWHQHG�ELUG�VSHFLHV��,Q�WKH�8.��63$V�PXVW�ILUVW�EH�GHVLJQDWHG�DV�DQ�666,�EHIRUH�JDLQLQJ�WKH�SURWHFWLRQ�DV�DQ�63$��7KH�&O\GH�KDV�RQH�GHVLJQDWHG�63$�LQ�WKH�DUHD�±�WKH�LVODQG�RI�$LOVD�&UDLJ��VHH�7DEOH��������7KH�1DWXUH�&RQVHUYDQF\�&RXQFLO�KDV�LGHQWLILHG�0&$V�ZKLFK�GHVHUYH�SDUWLFXODU�GLVWLQFWLRQ�LQ�UHODWLRQ�WR�WKH�TXDOLW\�DQG�VHQVLWLYLW\�RI�WKHLU�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW��7KH�VLWHV�KDYH�QR�VWDWXWRU\�VWDWXV�EXW�DUH�NQRZQ�WR�ERGLHV�VXFK�DV�61+�IRU�PDULQH�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�LVVXHV��7KH�0&$V�ORFDWHG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LQFOXGH�/RFK�)\QH�DQG�/RFK�5\DQ�GXH�WR�WKH�SUHVHQFH�RI�LPSRUWDQW�VSHFLHV�VXFK�DV�WKH�ILUHZRUNV�DQHPRQH�DQG�JDSLQJ�ILOH�VKHOO�UHHIV���,PSOHPHQWLQJ�PDULQH�SURWHFWHG�DUHDV��03$V��LV�D�SULRULW\�IRU�6FRWODQG�DV�LW�KDV�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�FRPPLWPHQWV�WR�HVWDEOLVK�DQ�HFRORJLFDOO\�FRKHUHQW�QHWZRUN�RI�03$V�XQGHU�WKH�263$5�DJUHHPHQW�DQG�VR�DORQJVLGH�RWKHU�PDQDJHPHQW�SUDFWLFHV��HVWDEOLVKLQJ�03$V�ZLOO�XQGHUSLQ�WKH�IXWXUH�XVH�RI�WKH�VHDV�DURXQG�6FRWODQG��&XUUHQWO\�61+��WKH�-RLQW�1DWXUH�&RQVHUYDWLRQ�&RPPLWWHH��-1&&��DQG�+LVWRULF�6FRWODQG�DUH�ZRUNLQJ�FORVHO\�ZLWK�0DULQH�6FRWODQG�DQG�VWDNHKROGHUV�WR�SURYLGH�DGYLFH�WR�WKH�6FRWWLVK�*RYHUQPHQW�RQ�ZKHUH�03$V�VKRXOG�EH�GHVLJQDWHG��7R�KHOS�WDUJHW�ELRGLYHUVLW\�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�DFWLRQ�61+�DQG�-1&&�KDYH�SXW�WRJHWKHU�D�IRFXVHG�OLVW�RI�KDELWDWV�DQG�VSHFLHV�RI�LPSRUWDQFH�LQ�6FRWWLVK�ZDWHUV�±�3ULRULW\�0DULQH�)HDWXUHV��30)V��ZKLFK�ZLOO�XQGHUSLQ�WKH�VHOHFWLRQ�RI�03$V��)LJXUH�������7KH�&O\GH�VHDORFKV�KDYH�EHHQ�LGHQWLILHG�DV�DUHDV�ZKLFK�UHSUHVHQW�PDMRU�SULRULWLHV�IRU�WKH�HVWDEOLVKPHQW�RI�03$V�GXH�WR�WKH�SUHVHQFH�RI�PDQ\�30)V�VXFK�DV�VHD�SHQV��QDWLYH�R\VWHUV�DQG�IODPH�VKHOO�EHGV��0RRUH�DQG�-DPHV����������

���� 6XJJHVWLRQ�IRU�)XUWKHU�:RUN��7KHUH�LV�PXFK�FRQFHUQ�RYHU�LQVKRUH�EHQWKLF�KDELWDWV��HVSHFLDOO\�WKRVH�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�PDHUO�EHGV��,W�LV�HVWLPDWHG�KHUH�WKDW�����RI�WKH�VHD�EHG�RI�WKH�&O\GH�PLJKW�EH�DEOH�WR�VXSSRUW�OLYLQJ�PDHUO��DOWKRXJK�WKH�ILJXUH�PD\�EH�VPDOOHU�RZLQJ�WR�FRQVWUDLQWV�VXFK�DV�ZDWHU�IORZ�DQG�H[SRVXUH��VHH�6HFWLRQ�����0RVW�RI�WKHVH�SRWHQWLDO�VLWHV�DUH�ZLWKLQ�WKH���QP�]RQH�IURP�WKH�FRDVW��,Q�WKLV�]RQH�WKH�H[LVWLQJ�GDWD�VHWV�RI�VHD�EHG�W\SH��DQG�DOVR�ZDWHU�GHSWK��PD\�EH�PRVW�LQ�HUURU��$�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�JURXQG�GHWHUPLQLQJ�DFRXVWLF�VXUYH\��ZLWK�DVVRFLDWHG�YDOLGDWLRQ�XVLQJ�GLUHFW�DQG�LQGLUHFW�VDPSOLQJ�PHWKRGV��LV�QHHGHG�RI�WKH�&O\GH���QP�]RQH�DQG�ZDWHUV�RXW�WR�WKH���P�GHSWK�FRQWRXU��

Page 47: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

�6LWH�RI�6SHFLDO�6FLHQWLILF�,QWHUHVW��666,��

�� 666,� 3URWHFWLRQ�$UHD��KD��

1DWLRQDO�*ULG�5HIHUHQFH�

�� 6DQGD�,VODQGV� %LUGV� ������ 15��������� �� 0DULWLPH�&OLIIV� �� ���� %DOODQWUDH�6KLQJOH�%HDFK� 6KLQJOH� ������ 1;���������� 7XUQEHUU\�'XQHV� %HHWOH�$VVHPEODJH� ������ 16���������� 0DLGHQV�WR�'RRQIRRW� 6KLQJOH� ������ 16����������16��������� �� 0DULWLPH�&OLIIV� �� ���� 7URRQ�*ROI�/LQNV�DQG�)RUHVKRUH� 6DQG�GXQH� ������� 16���������� :HVWHUQ�*DLOHV� 6DQG�GXQH� ������ 16��������

� ��,QYHUWHEUDWH�DVVHPEODJH� �� ��

�� 3RUWHQFURVV�&RDVW� 0XGIODWV� ������ 16��������� �� %LUGV��QRQ�EUHHGLQJ�� �� ���� .DPHV�%D\� 6DQGIODWV� ���� 16���������� %DOORFKPDUWLQ�%D\� 6DQGIODWV� ����� 16����������� ,QQHU�&O\GH� 6DOWPDUVK� �������� 16��������16�������� �� %LUGV� �� ����� 5XHO�(VWXDU\� 6DOWPDUVK� ������� 16����������� $LOVD�&UDLJ� %LUGV� ������ 1;���������� �� 6HDELUG�FRORQ\� �� ����� 6RXWK�&RDVW�RI�$UUDQ� 6KLQJOH� ������ 15��������� �� 0DULWLPH�&OLII� �� ��

��� &ODXFKODQGV�3RLQW���&RUU\JLOOV� 6DOWPDUVK� ������ 16���������� �� 0DULWLPH�&OLII� �� ���

7DEOH�����6LWHV�RI�6SHFLDO�6FLHQWLILF�,QWHUHVW�ORFDWHG�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��

Page 48: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����7KH�ORFDWLRQ�RI�3ULRULW\�0DULQH�)HDWXUHV�GHWHUPLQHG�E\�61+�VXUYH\�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�������

Page 49: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

��� 4B+80$1�,03$&76��27+(5�7+$1�),6+,1*���

���� 22B%DFNJURXQG��,Q�8.�ZDWHUV�PRVW�SUREOHPV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�KXPDQ�LPSDFWV�RWKHU�WKDQ�ILVKLQJ�DUH�ORFDO�LQ�QDWXUH�SDUWLFXODUO\�LQ�LQGXVWULDOLVHG�HVWXDULHV�DQG�FRDVWV�VXFK�DV�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��7KH�PDMRU�FRPSRQHQW�DIIHFWLQJ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�WKH�VXEVWDQWLDO�KLVWRULFDO�DQG�FXUUHQW�LQSXWV�RI�KD]DUGRXV�VXEVWDQFHV�IURP�LQGXVWULDO�DQG�GRPHVWLF�ZDVWH��7KH�UHJLRQ�LV�WKH�PRVW�LQGXVWULDOLVHG�DQG�XUEDQLVHG�DUHD�RI�6FRWODQG�DQG�LV�DUJXDEO\�6FRWODQG¶V�PRVW�KHDYLO\�FRQWDPLQDWHG�ZDWHU�ERG\��:HEVWHU��HW�DO���������7KH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW�LV�GHVFULEHG�DV�WKH�XOWLPDWH�VLQN�IRU�PDQ\�KD]DUGRXV�VXEVWDQFHV�WKDW�UHVXOW�IURP�WKH�ZDVWH�SURGXFHG�E\�LQGXVWU\��6XEVWDQFHV�LGHQWLILHG�DV�D�SDUWLFXODU�FDXVH�IRU�FRQFHUQ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LQFOXGH�FDGPLXP��OHDG��PHUFXU\��SHVWLFLGHV�DQG�SHUVLVWHQW�RUJDQLF�SROOXWDQWV��323¶V���$OWKRXJK�WKH�XVH�RI�VRPH�RI�WKHVH�VXEVWDQFHV�KDV�EHHQ�EDQQHG�WKH\�VWLOO�FRQWLQXH�WR�EH�SUHVHQW�LQ�WKH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW�DV�D�UHVXOW�RI�KLVWRULFDO�XVH��%D[WHU�HW�DO����������,QIRUPDWLRQ�RQ�VHZDJH�DQG�LQGXVWULDO�GLVFKDUJHV�LQWR�WKH�&O\GH�DQG�WKHLU�HIIHFWV�RQ�WKH�HQYLURQPHQW�KDYH�EHHQ�ZHOO�GRFXPHQWHG�DV�SDUW�RI�WKH�$QQXDO�5HSRUWV�SURGXFHG�E\�WKH�IRUPHU�&O\GH�5LYHU�3XULILFDWLRQ�%RDUG�ZKLFK�LV�QRZ�LQFRUSRUDWHG�LQWR�WKH�6FRWWLVK�(QYLURQPHQW�3URWHFWLRQ�$JHQF\��6(3$����7KH�PRVW�FRQFHQWUDWHG�VRXUFH�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�LQWR�WKH�&O\GH�LV�DW�*DUURFK�+HDG��VRXWK�RI�WKH�,VOH�RI�%XWH�DQG�DW�&ORFK�3RLQW��)LJXUH�������6HZDJH�VOXGJH�KDV�EHHQ�GLVSRVHG�RI�DW�*DUURFK�+HDG�VLQFH������XQWLO�WKH�VLWH�ZDV�FORVHG�XQGHU�WKH�(&�8UEDQ�:DVWH�:DWHU�7UHDWPHQW�'LUHFWLYH��������((&�������%\�WKH�����¶V�PRUH�WKDQ�����������WRQQHV�RI�VHZDJH�VOXGJH�ZDV�EHLQJ�GLVSRVHG�RI�DQQXDOO\�DW�*DUURFK�+HDG��7KH�VLWH�KDG�EHHQ�PRYHG���NP�VRXWK�LQ������DIWHU�WKH�LQWURGXFWLRQ�RI�WKH�'XPSLQJ�DW�6HD�$FW�ZKHUH�GXPSLQJ�ZDV�FRQILQHG�WR�D�FLUFXODU�DUHD�RQH�QDXWLFDO�PLOH�LQ�GLDPHWHU��/HYHOV�DW�WKH�ROG�VLWH�ZHUH�SDUWLFXODUO\�SHUVLVWHQW�DV�WKH�HIIHFWV�RI�WKH�QHZ�VLWH��ZKLFK�H[SHULHQFHG�KLJKHU�UDWHV�RI�LQSXW�DQG�PRUH�SUHFLVH�GXPSLQJ��KDG�DPSOLILHG�WKH�HIIHFWV�RI�VOXGJH�GLVSRVDO�DW�WKH�IRUPHU�VLWH��5RGJHU�HW�DO����������7KH�SUREOHP�ZDV�IXUWKHU�H[DFHUEDWHG�GXH�WR�WKH�K\GURORJ\�RI�WKH�DUHD��ZKHUH�FXUUHQWV�DUH�UHODWLYHO\�VORZ������FP�V����DQG�GRHV�QRW�DOORZ�HQRXJK�GLVSHUVLRQ�RI�SROOXWDQWV��WKLV�FDXVHV�ORFDOLVHG�SUREOHPV�WR�RFFXU��0RMWDKLG�HW�DO����������0RQLWRULQJ�KDV�EHHQ�XQGHUWDNHQ�DW�*DUURFK�+HDG�IROORZLQJ�WKH�FHVVDWLRQ�RI�GXPSLQJ�LQ�������WR�DVVHVV�UHFRYHU\��+RZHYHU��WKH�GLVSRVDO�RI�GUHGJHG�PDWHULDO�DW�VHD�FRQWLQXHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�DW�&ORFK�3RLQW�DQG�LV�DXWKRULVHG�XQGHU�SDUW�,,�RI�WKH�)RRG�DQG�(QYLURQPHQW�3URWHFWLRQ�$FW�������)(3$���2WKHU�VRXUFHV�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�LQWR�WKH�&O\GH�LQFOXGH�UXQ�RII�IURP�XUEDQ�DUHDV��RLO�VSLOOV�DQG�DWPRVSKHULF�GHSRVLWLRQ�ZKLFK�GLIIXVHV�LQWR�WKH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW����7KH�SROOXWLRQ�LQWR�WKH�&O\GH�FRQVWLWXWHV�D�PDMRU�VRXUFH�RI�SHUVLVWHQW�RUJDQLF�SROOXWDQWV��323V��VXFK�DV�SRO\FKORULQDWHG�ELSKHQ\OV��3&%V��DQG�SRO\F\FOLF�DURPDWLF�K\GURFDUERQV��3$+V���,Q�PRUH�UHFHQW�WLPHV�LQFUHDVHG�UHJXODWLRQ�KDV�UHGXFHG�FRQWDPLQDQW�LQSXWV��+RZHYHU��GXH�WR�WKH�SHUVLVWHQW�QDWXUH�RI�PDQ\�KD]DUGRXV�VXEVWDQFHV��KLJK�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�FDQ�VWLOO�EH�IRXQG�LQ�PDULQH�VHGLPHQWV�DV�D�UHVXOW�RI�KLVWRULFDO�LQSXWV��7KH�H[WHQW�WR�ZKLFK�WKHVH�K\GURSKRELF�FRPSRXQGV�DUH�DFFXPXODWHG�LV�GHSHQGHQW�RQ�VHGLPHQW�W\SH��6HGLPHQWV�ZLWK�KLJK�RUJDQLF�FDUERQ�FRQWHQW�DQG�D�VPDOO�SDUWLFOH�VL]H��VXFK�DV�WKRVH�RI�WKH�LQQHU�&O\GH��KDYH�D�JUHDWHU�SRWHQWLDO�WR�DFFXPXODWH�K\GURSKRELF�FRQWDPLQDQWV�WKDQ�FRDUVHU�VHGLPHQWV��:HEVWHU�HW�DO���LQ�SUHVV���7KH�LPPHGLDWH�HIIHFW�RI�WKH�DFFXPXODWLRQ�RI�VXFK�FRQWDPLQDQWV�KDV�EHHQ�WR�FDXVH�RUJDQLF�HQULFKPHQW�RI�WKH�VHGLPHQW�ZKLFK�LQ�WXUQ�FDXVHV�FKDQJHV�LQ�WKH�EHQWKLF�LQIDXQD�DQG�D�GHFUHDVH�LQ�ELRGLYHUVLW\��5RGJHU��������.HOO\�DQG�&DPSEHOO����������

Page 50: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����0DS�VKRZLQJ�WKH�GXPS�VLWHV�DW�*DUURFK�+HDG��SUH��DQG�SRVW��������

�3&%V�DUH�V\QWKHWLF�VXEVWDQFHV�ZKLFK�KDYH�EHHQ�SURGXFHG�LQ�(XURSH�VLQFH������XQWLO�WKH�PLG�����V�DQG�XVHG�LQ�K\GUDXOLF�IOXLGV��LQVXODWRUV��VHDODQWV�DQG�JURXWLQJ��263$5���������3&%V�DUH�WR[LF��SHUVLVWHQW�DQG�OLSRSKLOLF�DQG�DUH�ELRDFFXPXODWHG�E\�ILVK�HVSHFLDOO\�LQ�WKH�OLYHU�GXH�WR�LWV�KLJK�OLSLG�FRQWHQW��7KH\�FDQ�DGYHUVHO\�DIIHFW�UHSURGXFWLRQ��DQG�PD\�DIIHFW�LPPXQH�V\VWHPV�ZKLFK�FDQ�UHVXOW�LQ�GLVHDVH�HSLGHPLFV��2UJDQLVPV�DW�WKH�KLJKHU�OHYHOV�RI�WKH�IRRG�ZHE��HVSHFLDOO\�VHDELUGV�DQG�PDULQH�PDPPDOV��FDQ�EH�SDUWLFXODUO\�DIIHFWHG��263$5����������3$+V�DUH�ZLGHVSUHDG�FKHPLFDO�SROOXWDQWV�WKDW�DUH�LQWURGXFHG�LQWR�WKH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW�IURP�PDQ\�GLIIHUHQW�VRXUFHV��7KH\�DUH�QDWXUDO�FRPSRQHQWV�RI�FRDO�DQG�RLO�DQG�DUH�PDLQO\�SURGXFHG�E\�WKH�LQFRPSOHWH�FRPEXVWLRQ�RI�FDUERQ�FRQWDLQLQJ�IXHOV��DV�D�UHVXOW�WKH\�DUH�RQH�RI�WKH�PRVW�ZLGHVSUHDG�RUJDQLF�SROOXWDQWV��263$5���������3$+V�DUH�WR[LF��SHUVLVWHQW�DQG�DUH�NQRZQ�WR�EH�ERWK�PXWDJHQLF�DQG�FDUFLQRJHQLF��'XH�WR�WKHLU�ORZ�DTXHRXV�VROXELOLW\�DQG�K\GURSKRELF�QDWXUH��3$+V�WHQG�WR�DVVRFLDWH�ZLWK�SDUWLFXODWH�PDWWHU�DQG�FDQ�EH�ELR�DFFXPXODWHG�HVSHFLDOO\�E\�VKHOOILVK���,QSXWV�RI�WUDFH�PHWDOV�VXFK�DV�FDGPLXP�DQG�PHUFXU\�UHVXOW�IURP�GLVFKDUJHV�RI�VHZDJH�DQG�IURP�WKH�ILVK�IDUP�LQGXVWU\��0RVW�WUDFH�RUJDQLF�FRPSRXQGV�DUH�LQVROXEOH�LQ�ZDWHU�DQG�DUH�EHORZ�GHWHFWLRQ�FRQFHQWUDWLRQ�OHYHOV��+RZHYHU��/LQGDQH��Ȗ�KH[DFKORURF\FORKH[DQH��+&+���ZKLFK�LV�XVHG�LQ�LQVHFWLFLGHV�LV�UHODWLYHO\�VROXEOH�LQ�ZDWHU�DQG�SUHVHQW�LQ�PHDVXUDEOH�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV��7KH�&O\GH�6HD�FXUUHQWO\�KDV�WKH�KLJKHVW�LQSXWV�RI�/LQGDQH��\�+&+��FRPSDUHG�WR�WKH�UHVW�RI�6FRWODQG��%D[WHU�HW�DO�����������

���� 23B$VVHVVPHQW�RI�3ROOXWLRQ��7KH�:DWHU�)UDPHZRUN�'LUHFWLYH��:)'��HVWDEOLVKHV�D�OHJDO�IUDPHZRUN�IRU�WKH�SURWHFWLRQ��LPSURYHPHQW�DQG�VXVWDLQDEOH�XVH�RI�VXUIDFH�ZDWHUV��WUDQVLWLRQDO�ZDWHUV��FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV�DQG�

Page 51: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

JURXQGZDWHU�DFURVV�(XURSH��,Q�6FRWODQG��WKLV�ZRUN�LV�XQGHUWDNHQ�SULPDULO\�E\�6(3$�LQ�FRQMXQFWLRQ�ZLWK�WKH�6FRWWLVK�*RYHUQPHQW��)RU�DVSHFWV�RI�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV�QRW�FRYHUHG�E\�WKH�:DWHU�)UDPHZRUN�'LUHFWLYH��WKH�0DULQH�6WUDWHJ\�)UDPHZRUN�'LUHFWLYH��06)'��VHWV�RXW�HQYLURQPHQW�SURWHFWLRQ�DQG�LPSURYHPHQW�PHDVXUHV�IRU�PDULQH�ZDWHUV���0RQLWRULQJ�RI�KD]DUGRXV�VXEVWDQFHV�LQ�WKH�6FRWWLVK�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW�LV�UHTXLUHG�LQ�RUGHU�IRU�6FRWODQG�WR�PHHW�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�REOLJDWLRQV�WR�263$5�DQG�XQGHU�(8�OHJLVODWLRQ��+D]DUGRXV�VXEVWDQFHV�KLJKOLJKWHG�WR�EH�RI�FRQFHUQ�VXFK�DV�WKRVH�DOUHDG\�PHQWLRQHG�DUH�PRQLWRUHG�URXWLQHO\�LQ�6FRWODQG�E\�HLWKHU�0DULQH�6FRWODQG�RU�6(3$��7KH�PRQLWRULQJ�SURJUDPPHV�FRYHU�WKH�GLIIHUHQW�PDULQH�FRPSRQHQWV�PHDVXULQJ�FRQWDPLQDQWV�LQ�ZDWHUV��VHGLPHQWV�DQG�ELRWD�WR�GHWHUPLQH�WKH�ORQJ�WHUP�IDWH�RI�WKHVH�PDWHULDOV��7KRVH�WKDW�DUH�VROXEOH�UHPDLQ�LQ�VROXWLRQ�ZKHUH�LQVROXEOH�FRQWDPLQDQWV�DUH�PRUH�OLNHO\�WR�EH�LQFRUSRUDWHG�LQ�WKH�VHGLPHQWV�RU�ELR�DFFXPXODWHG�LQ�DQLPDO�WLVVXH���7R�DVVHVV�FRQWDPLQDQW�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�LQ�UHODWLRQ�WR�WKH�*DUURFK�KHDG�GXPS�VLWH��ILVK�KDYH�EHHQ�VDPSOHG�DQQXDOO\�VLQFH������DQG�VHGLPHQW�VDPSOHV�WDNHQ�VLQFH�������:HEVWHU�HW�DO����������$VVHVVPHQW�FULWHULD�KDYH�EHHQ�GHYHORSHG�IRU�PHWDOV�DQG�RUJDQLF�FRQWDPLQDQWV��3$+V�DQG�3&%V��LQ�ERWK�VHGLPHQW�DQG�ELRWD�RQ�DQ�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�EDVLV�WKURXJK�WKH�DXVSLFHV�RI�263$5��,&(6�DQG�WKH�(8��7KH�PDLQ�SURJUDPPH�IRU�PRQLWRULQJ�WKH�VWDWXV�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�LQ�8.�ZDWHUV�LV�WKH�µ&OHDQ�6HDV�(QYLURQPHQWDO�0RQLWRULQJ�3URJUDPPH¶��&6(03���&6(03�PHDVXUHV�WKH�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�RI�VSHFLILF�FKHPLFDOV�ZKLFK�DUH�SHUVLVWHQW��WR[LF�DQG�KDYH�WKH�DELOLW\�WR�DFFXPXODWH�LQ�IRRG�FKDLQV��DW�DOPRVW�����VLWHV�DURXQG�WKH�8.��8.0$66���������$VVHVVPHQW�FULWHULD�IRU�WKHVH�VLWHV�KDYH�EHHQ�GHYHORSHG�EDVHG�RQ�FRQFHQWUDWLRQ�WKUHVKROGV��LQ�VHGLPHQWV�DQG�ELRWD��DERYH�ZKLFK�WKHVH�FRQWDPLQDQWV�FRXOG�EH�WR[LF�WR�ERWK�PDULQH�RUJDQLVPV�DQG�WR�KXPDQ�FRQVXPHUV�RI�VHDIRRG����

%OXH��6WDWXV�LV�DFFHSWDEOH��&RQFHQWUDWLRQV�DUH�QHDU�EDFNJURXQG�IRU�QDWXUDOO\�RFFXUULQJ�VXEVWDQFHV��H�J��3$+V��RU�FORVH�WR�]HUR�IRU�PDQ�PDGH�VXEVWDQFHV��H�J��3&%V���

*UHHQ��6WDWXV�LV�DFFHSWDEOH��&RQFHQWUDWLRQV�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�DUH�DW�OHYHOV�ZKHUH�LW�FDQ�EH�DVVXPHG�WKDW�OLWWOH�RU�QR�ULVNV�DUH�SRVHG�WR�WKH�HQYLURQPHQW�DQG�LWV�OLYLQJ�UHVRXUFHV�DW�WKH�SRSXODWLRQ�RU�FRPPXQLW\�OHYHO��

5HG��6WDWXV�LV�XQDFFHSWDEOH��&RQFHQWUDWLRQV�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�DUH�DW�OHYHOV�ZKHUH�WKHUH�LV�DQ�XQDFFHSWDEOH�ULVN�RI�FKURQLF�HIIHFWV�RFFXUULQJ�LQ�PDULQH�VSHFLHV��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�PRVW�VHQVLWLYH�VSHFLHV��

�263$5�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�VWDQGDUGV�IRU�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�DUH�DV�IROORZV��FRQWDPLQDQW�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�DUH�FRQVLGHUHG�WR�EH�ORZ�LI�WKH\�DUH�EHORZ�WKH�%DFNJURXQG�$VVHVVPHQW�&RQFHQWUDWLRQ��%$&���VOLJKWO\�HOHYDWHG�LI�DERYH�WKH�%$&�EXW�EHORZ�WKH�(QYLURQPHQWDO�$VVHVVPHQW�&ULWHULD��($&��DQG�RI�FRQFHUQ�LI�DERYH�WKH�($&���7KH�JHQHUDO�WUHQG�LQ�6FRWWLVK�ZDWHUV�IRU�PHWDO�FRQWDPLQDQWV�LV�WKDW�WKH�LQSXW�LQ�GLVSRVHG�ZDVWH�LV�GHFOLQLQJ�DQG�WKHVH�GRZQZDUG�WUHQGV�IRU�PHUFXU\��FDGPLXP�DQG�OLQGDQH�DUH�UHSRUWHG�LQ�&KDUWLQJ�3URJUHVV���DQG�6FRWODQG¶V�0DULQH�$WODV��VHH�)LJXUH�������,Q�D�UHFHQW�VWXG\�E\�:HEVWHU�HW�DO���LQ�SUHVV��3$+��3&%�DQG�3%'(�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�ZHUH�IRXQG�WR�EH�VLJQLILFDQWO\�KLJKHU�LQ�VHGLPHQW�DQG�ILVK�OLYHU�IURP�WKH�&O\GH�FRPSDUHG�WR�DOO�RWKHU�VHD�DUHDV�DURXQG�6FRWODQG��7KH�3$+�GDWD�IURP�WKLV�VWXG\�VKRZHG�WKDW�DOO�3$+V�LQ�DOO�VHD�DUHDV�ZHUH�DW�DFFHSWDEOH�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV��JUHHQ��H[FHSW�IRU�WKH�&O\GH���

Page 52: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

7KH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD�LV�VDPSOHG�DW�VHYHQ�GLIIHUHQW�VWUDWXP�IURP�QRUWK�WR�VRXWK����)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�,QQHU�'XQQRQ����)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�,QQHU�&XPEUDHV����/DUJV�&KDQHO����)LUWK�&O\GH�0LGGOH�2IIVKRUH����,UYLQH�%D\����)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�2XWHU�2IIVKRUH����6RXWK�$UUDQ��)LJXUH�������$OWKRXJK�3$+�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�LQ�WKH�VHGLPHQW�ZHUH�IRXQG�WR�EH�DERYH�DVVHVVPHQW�FULWHULD�LQ�WKH�DUHDV�RI�WKH�LQQHU�&O\GH��D�GRZQZDUG�WUHQG�ZDV�GHWHFWHG��3$+�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�DOVR�VKRZHG�D�VLJQLILFDQW�JUDGLHQW�JRLQJ�IURP�QRUWK�WR�VRXWK�VWUDWXP�ZLWK�WKH�ORZHVW�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�EHLQJ�LQ�WKH�VWUDWD�FORVHVW�WR�WKH�RSHQ�VHD��:HEVWHU�HW�DO���LQ�SUHVV��VHH�)LJXUH��������

)LJXUH�����6RXUFH��6FRWODQG¶V�0DULQH�$WODV���������%D[WHU�HW�DO����������

)LJXUH�����/RFDWLRQ�RI�VDPSOLQJ�VLWHV�IRU�HDFK�VWUDWXP�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��

Page 53: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����,QWHUYDO�SORW�RI�WLPH�DYHUDJHG�LQGLYLGXDO�SDUHQW�3$+�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�LQ�VHGLPHQW��ȝJ�NJ���GU\�ZHLJKW�QRUPDOLVHG�WR������72&��IRU�WKH�VWUDWD�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��7KH�HUURU�EDUV�DUH�WKH�����FRQILGHQFH�OLPLWV��6LWHV�DUH�KLJKOLJKWHG�µEOXH¶��µJUHHQ¶�RU�µUHG¶�RQ�WKH�EDVLV�RI�WKH�FRQFHQWUDWLRQ�UHODWLYH�WR�DVVHVVPHQW�FULWHULD���6RXUFH��:HEVWHU�HW�DO���LQ�SUHVV��

�7KH�DFFXPXODWLRQ�RI�PHUFXU\�LQ�ILVK�IOHVK�KDV�EHHQ�LQYHVWLJDWHG�LQ�UHODWLRQ�WR�WKH�GLVSRVDO�VLWHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��&ODUN���������0HUFXU\�LV�RI�SDUWLFXODU�LQWHUHVW�DV�LW�FDQ�EH�WUDQVPLWWHG�WKURXJK�WKH�IRRG�FKDLQ�DQG�FDQ�EH�SRWHQWLDOO\�SDVVHG�RQ�WR�KXPDQV��+RZHYHU��ILVK�IURP�WKH�&O\GH�KDYH�QRW�DFFXPXODWHG�PHUFXU\�DERYH�EDFNJURXQG�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV��5RJHU����������7KH�PRVW�WR[LF�3&%��&%�����LV�SUHVHQW�DERYH�WKH�($&�LQ�PXVVHOV�DQG�RQH�VHGLPHQW�VLWH�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�DQG�LW�LV�RI�FRQFHUQ�WKDW�DGYHUVH�ELRORJLFDO�HIIHFWV�PD\�EH�VHHQ�LQ�PDULQH�ELRWD�LQ�WKH�DUHD��VHH�)LJXUH���������

)LJXUH�����$���&%����LQ�VHGLPHQWV�QRUPDOLVHG�WR������72&��%�±�&%����LQ�%LRWD����&��3\UHQH�LQ�VHGLPHQWV�QRUPDOLVHG�WR������72&��'�±�3\UHQH�LQ�%LRWD��6RXUFH��6FRWODQG¶V�0DULQH�$WODV��%D[WHU�HW�DO���������

Page 54: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

�,Q�RUGHU�WR�GHWHUPLQH�WKH�ELRORJLFDO�HIIHFWV�RI�KD]DUGRXV�VXEVWDQFHV�ELRDVVD\V�RI�WZR�VSHFLHV��WKH�FUXVWDFHDQ�&RURSKLXP�YROXWDWRU�DQG�WKH�SRO\FKDHWH�ZRUP�$UHQLFROD�PDULQD��DUH�XVHG��%D[WHU�HW�DO����������7R[LFLW\�LV�GHWHUPLQHG�E\�WKH�QXPEHU�RI�WHVW�RUJDQLVPV�ZKLFK�VXUYLYH�LQ�WKH�WHVW�VHGLPHQWV�FRPSDUHG�WR�XQFRQWDPLQDWHG�FRQWURO�VHGLPHQWV��7KH�VHGLPHQWV�IURP�WZR�VLWHV�LQ�WKH�LQQHU�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�ZHUH�IRXQG�WR�FRQWDLQ�WKH�KLJKHVW�OHYHO�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�IURP�WKH�FRDVWDO�DUHDV�DURXQG�6FRWODQG�DQG�WKH�ELRDVVD\V�LQGLFDWHG�WKDW�DGYHUVH�HIIHFWV�DUH�SRVVLEOH�DW�WKHVH�VLWHV��%D[WHU�HW�DO����������+RZHYHU�DQDO\VLV�RI�WKH�VHGLPHQWV�GRHV�QRW�VKRZ�DQ\�DGYHUVH�LPSDFWV�DW�SUHVHQW���7KH�RYHUDOO�VWDWXV�RI�WKH�VHD�DUHDV�DURXQG�6FRWODQG�DVVHVVHG�IRU�SHUVLVWHQW�RUJDQLF�SROOXWDQWV��323V��DUH�FRQVLGHUHG�WR�EH�DFFHSWDEOH�DV�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�ZHUH�EHORZ�WKRVH�OLNHO\�WR�UHVXOW�LQ�FKURQLF�HIIHFWV�H[FHSW�IRU�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��+RZHYHU��D�GRZQZDUG�WUHQG�LQ�3$+�LQ�VHGLPHQWV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�KDV�EHHQ�GHWHFWHG�DQG�LQ�FRPSDULVRQ�WR�RWKHU�VHDV�DURXQG�WKH�ZLGHU�8.�WKH�HQYLURQPHQWDO�VWDWXV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�KDV�IHZ�SUREOHPV��VHH�)LJXUH���������

)LJXUH�����3ROOXWLRQ�VWDWXV�RI�WKH�VHDV�DURXQG�6FRWODQG�6RXUFH��7KH�6WDWH�RI�8.�6HDV��&KDUWLQJ�3URJUHVV�����8.0$66���������

Page 55: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

���� 24B0DULQH�/LWWHU��0DULQH�DQG�EHDFK�OLWWHU�LV�D�VLJQLILFDQW�LVVXH�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�DQG�DURXQG�6FRWODQG��0DULQH�OLWWHU�KDV�EHHQ�DQ�RQJRLQJ�SUREOHP�IRU�PDQ\�\HDUV�DQG�RULJLQDWHV�IURP�PDQ\�GLIIHUHQW�VRXUFHV�VXFK�DV�UHFUHDWLRQ�DQG�WRXULVP��ILVKLQJ�GHEULV��VHZDJH�UHODWHG�GHEULV�DQG�VKLSSLQJ�ZDVWH��6RPHUYLOOH�HW�DO����������,Q�DGGLWLRQ��WKH�OLWWHU�LQ�6FRWWLVK�VHDV�PD\�EH�GHULYHG�ORFDOO\�RU�KDYH�WUDYHOOHG�WKRXVDQGV�RI�PLOHV�IURP�ZHOO�RXWVLGH�6FRWODQG¶V�LQIOXHQFH��6RPH�VHD�ORFKV�DURXQG�6FRWODQG�DFW�DV�D�QDWXUDO�FROOHFWLQJ�IXQQHO��NQRZQ�DV�OLWWHU�VLQNV��VXFK�DV�DW�WKH�KHDG�RI�/RFK�/RQJ�DW�$UURFKDU�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��ZKLFK�FROOHFWV�ODUJH�DFFXPXODWLRQV�RI�OLWWHU�RQ�WKH�EHDFK�HYHQ�WKRXJK�WKH�SRSXODWLRQ�RI�WKH�VXUURXQGLQJ�DUHD�LV�TXLWH�VPDOO���,W�KDV�EHHQ�HVWLPDWHG�WKDW�DSSUR[LPDWHO\�����RI�PDULQH�OLWWHU�RULJLQDWHV�IURP�ODQG�EDVHG�VRXUFHV�DQG�WKDW�XS�WR�����RI�WKH�ZDVWH�FRQVLVWV�RI�SODVWLFV�ZKLFK�FDQ�SHUVLVW�IRU�D�VLJQLILFDQW�DPRXQW�RI�WLPH��'DYLVRQ���������/LWWHU�LQ�WKH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW�JLYHV�ULVH�WR�D�UDQJH�RI�DGYHUVH�HFRORJLFDO�LPSDFWV��LQFOXGLQJ��HQWDQJOHPHQW��VPRWKHULQJ��LQJHVWLRQ��GLVWXUEDQFH�RI�KDELWDW��WUDQVSRUW�RI�LQYDVLYH�VSHFLHV�DQG�SRLVRQLQJ�E\�WKH�EUHDNGRZQ�RI�SURGXFWV��7KH�PDMRU�LPSDFWV�RI�PDULQH�OLWWHU�RQ�ILVKHU\�LQWHUHVWV�UHVXOWV�IURP�GDPDJH�WR�QHWV�DQG�IRXOLQJ�RI�ILVKLQJ�JURXQGV��0D/,77���������)LVKLQJ�LWVHOI�UHPDLQV�RQH�RI�WKH�ZRUVW�VRXUFHV�RI�PDULQH�OLWWHU��7KH�PRVW�VLJQLILFDQW�LPSDFW�RI�OLWWHU�IURP�ILVKHULHV�LV�JKRVW�ILVKLQJ�ZKHUH�ORVW�ILVKLQJ�JHDU��SDUWLFXODUO\�IURP�FUHHO�ILVKHULHV��FRQWLQXHV�WR�FDSWXUH�WDUJHW�DQG�QRQ�WDUJHW�VSHFLHV��+RZHYHU��LQ�WKH�&O\GH�WKH�HIIHFWV�RI�WKLV�KDYH�EHHQ�VKRZQ�WR�EH�PLQLPDO�ZLWK�PRVW�VSHFLHV�DEOH�WR�HVFDSH�IURP�FUHHOV�RYHU�WLPH��$GH\����������,Q�JHQHUDO�WKHUH�LV�OLWWOH�NQRZQ�DERXW�WKH�H[WHQW�DQG�FRPSRVLWLRQ�RI�PDULQH�OLWWHU�DURXQG�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��7KLV�LV�PDLQO\�GXH�WR�WKH�ODFN�RI�D�V\VWHPDWLF�PRQLWRULQJ�SURJUDPPH�EHLQJ�LQ�SODFH�LQ�6FRWODQG�DQG�QR�DJHQF\�WKDW�KDV�RYHUDOO�UHVSRQVLELOLW\�IRU�WDFNOLQJ�PDULQH�OLWWHU��'RQQHOO\�HW�DO����������+RZHYHU��0DULQH�6FRWODQG�LV�FXUUHQWO\�OHDGLQJ�WKH�GHYHORSPHQW�RI�D�6FRWWLVK�PDULQH�OLWWHU�VWUDWHJ\���

���� 25B6KLSSLQJ��+LVWRULFDOO\�WKH�SRUWV�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�KDYH�SOD\HG�D�YLWDO�UROH�LQ�WKH�SURVSHULW\�RI�6FRWODQG��7KH�&O\GH�LV�D�PDMRU�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�VKLSSLQJ�ORFDWLRQ��ZKLFK�KDV�VHYHUDO�PDMRU�SRUWV��EXV\�VKLSSLQJ�ODQHV�DQG�D�%3�RLO�WHUPLQDO�LQ�/RFK�/RQJ��7KH�PDMRU�SRUWV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�DUH�*ODVJRZ��*UHHQRFN��+XQWHUVWRQ��$UGURVVDQ�DQG�6WUDQUDHU��7KH�FRQWULEXWLRQ�RI�SRUWV�DQG�ZDWHU�WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ�WR�EXVLQHVV�DQG�6FRWODQG¶V�HFRQRP\�LV�TXLWH�VLJQLILFDQW��$ERXW�����RI�8.�LPSRUWV�DQG�H[SRUWV�DUH�WUDQVSRUWHG�E\�VHD��&O\GHSRUW�LWVHOI�LV�WKH�WKLUG�ODUJHVW�SRUW�LQ�6FRWODQG�DQG�WKH�HOHYHQWK�ODUJHVW�LQ�WKH�8.�E\�YROXPH�RI�WUDIILF��)LJXUH�����LOOXVWUDWHV�WKH�VKLSSLQJ�LQIUDVWUXFWXUH�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH����

Page 56: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����6KLSSLQJ�DQG�WUDQVSRUW�LQIUDVWUXFWXUH�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��6RXUFH��660(,�&O\GH�3LORW��'RQQHOO\�HW�DO���������

���� 26B�$TXDFXOWXUH��$TXDFXOWXUH�KDV�EHHQ�WKH�IDVWHVW�JURZLQJ�IRRG�SURGXFWLRQ�VHFWRU�LQ�WKH�ZRUOG�DQG�FXUUHQWO\�6FRWODQG�LV�WKH�ODUJHVW�DTXDFXOWXUH�SURGXFHU�LQ�WKH�(XURSHDQ�8QLRQ��+DOO�6SHQFHU�HW�DO����������6FRWODQG¶V�IMRUGV�SURYLGH�VKHOWHUHG�FRRO�ZDWHUV�DQG�KLJK�ZDWHU�H[FKDQJH�ZHOO�VXLWHG�IRU�WKH�IDUPLQJ�RI�VDOPRQ��+DOO�6SHQFHU�HW�DO���������7KH�LQGXVWU\�LQ�6FRWODQG�LV�GRPLQDWHG�E\�VDOPRQ�SURGXFWLRQ�EXW�DOVR�KDV�VLJQLILFDQW�UDLQERZ�WURXW�DQG�PXVVHO�SURGXFWLRQ��6FRWODQG�+LJKODQG�DQG�,VODQG�VDOPRQ�IDUPLQJ�KDV�JURZQ�GUDPDWLFDOO\�DQG�LV�DQ�LQFUHDVLQJO\�LPSRUWDQW�LQGXVWU\�KHOSLQJ�WR�XQGHUSLQ�HFRQRPLF�JURZWK�LQ�UXUDO�FRDVWDO�FRPPXQLWLHV��%D[WHU�HW�DO����������7KH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�KDV�LQ�UHFHQW�\HDUV��OLNH�PDQ\�RWKHU�DUHDV�RQ�WKH�:HVW�&RDVW�RI�6FRWODQG��EHFRPH�DQ�LPSRUWDQW�IRFXV�RI�DTXDFXOWXUH�SURFHVVHV��7KHUH�DUH�D�QXPEHU�RI�VDOPRQ�IDUPV�WR�WKH�1RUWK�RI�WKH�UHJLRQ��VXFK�DV�LQ�/RFK�)\QH�DQG�/RFK�6WULYHQ��DQG�VRPH�IXUWKHU�VRXWK�DW�$UUDQ��)LJXUH�����VKRZV�WKH�WUHQGV�LQ�VDOPRQ�DQG�VKHOOILVK��SDUWLFXODUO\�PXVVHO��DTXDFXOWXUH�IRU�6FRWODQG�VLQFH��������7KHUH�DUH�JURZLQJ�FRQFHUQV�RYHU�WKH�HQYLURQPHQWDO�HIIHFWV�RI�WKH�DTXDFXOWXUH�LQGXVWU\��)HUQDQGHV�HW�DO���������$TXDFXOWXUH�JHQHUDWHV�FRQVLGHUDEOH�DPRXQWV�RI�HIIOXHQW�IURP�QXWULHQWV��ZDVWH�IHHG��IDHFHV�DQG�IURP�WKH�E\�SURGXFWV�RI�SHVWLFLGHV��,Q�VKDOORZ�ZDWHUV�ZLWK�ZHDN�XQGHU�FXUUHQWV��ZDVWH�SURGXFWV�IURP�PDULQH�FDJHV�VHWWOH�RQ�WKH�ERWWRP�DFFXPXODWLQJ�DQG�VPRWKHULQJ�RUJDQLVPV�RQ�WKH�VHD�IORRU��7KLV�FDQ�UHVXOW�LQ�DOWHUDWLRQV�WR�WKH�LQIDXQDO�FRPPXQLW\�VWUXFWXUH�DQG�ORZHUHG�VSHFLHV�GLYHUVLW\��,Q�GHHSHU�ZDWHUV�DQG�ZKHUH�WKHUH�DUH�VWURQJHU�FXUUHQWV�HIIOXHQWV�UHOHDVHG�VKRXOG�EH�GLVSHUVHG�RYHU�D�ODUJHU�DUHD��)LVK�IDUPV�ORFDWHG�RYHU�PDHUO�EHGV��DOWKRXJK�LQ�D�WLGDOO\�VWURQJ�ORFDWLRQ�FDQ�JHW�SDUWLFXODWHV�WUDSSHG�ZLWKLQ�WKH�FRPSOH[�PDWUL[�RI�WKH�WKDOOL��0DULQH�ILVK�IDUPLQJ�FDQ�WKXV�KDYH�KDUPIXO�HIIHFWV�RQ�WKH�VXUURXQGLQJ�HQYLURQPHQW��,Q�VHPL�HQFORVHG�VHD�ORFKV��FDJH�DTXDFXOWXUH�RI�$WODQWLF�VDOPRQ�LV�WKH�PRVW�FRPPRQ�VRXUFH�RI�RUJDQLF�HQULFKPHQW��7KH�DUHD�RI�VHD�IORRU�LPSDFWHG�E\�ILVK�IDHFHV�DQG�XQHDWHQ�IRRG�ZLOO�GHSHQG�RQ�WKH�VL]H�DQG�WRQQDJH�RI�WKH�IDUP��RQ�ZDWHU�GHSWK��DQG�RQ�WKH�ORFDO�K\GURG\QDPLF�FRQGLWLRQV��+XJKHV�����������

Page 57: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����7UHQGV�LQ�SURGXFWLRQ�DQG�WXUQRYHU�IURP�����������IRU�D��$WODQWLF�VDOPRQ�E��0XVVHO�DQG�RWKHU�VKHOOILVK��6RXUFH��6FRWODQG¶V�0DULQH�$WODV��������

���� 6FRWODQG¶V�0DULQH�$WODV�±�2YHUDOO�$VVHVVPHQW��7KH�IROORZLQJ�LV�DGDSWHG�IURP�6FRWODQG¶V�0DULQH�$WODV��5HJLRQDO�DVVHVVPHQWV��6ROZD\��1RUWK�&KDQQHO�DQG�&O\GH��%D[WHU�HW�DO����������������� $FWLYLWLHV�DQG�3UHVVXUHV��7KH�&O\GH�KRVWV�D�ZLGH�UDQJH�RI�KXPDQ�DFWLYLWLHV�DQG�FRQVHTXHQWO\�LV�VXEMHFW�WR�D�QXPEHU�RI�SUHVVXUHV��$TXDFXOWXUH��SDUWLFXODUO\�VDOPRQ�DQG�VKHOOILVK�SURGXFWLRQ��WDNHV�SODFH�LQ�D�QXPEHU�RI�VHD�ORFKV�DQG�WKHUH�LV�ZLGHVSUHDG�ILVKLQJ��PDLQO\�IRU�1HSKURSV�DQG�VFDOORSV����7KHUH�DUH�VLJQLILFDQW�SRUWV��VKLSSLQJ�DQG�IHUU\�DFWLYLWLHV�ZLWK�����RI�6FRWWLVK�FDUJR�YROXPH�SDVVLQJ�WKURXJK�WKH�&O\GH�SRUWV��7KH�&O\GH�LV�RQH�RI�WKH�EXVLHVW�DUHDV�IRU�IHUU\�WUDIILF�ZLWK�NH\�OLQNV�WR�YDULRXV�LVODQGV�DQG�SHQLQVXODV��DV�ZHOO�DV�1RUWKHUQ�,UHODQG��DFFRXQWLQJ�IRU�a����RI�RYHUDOO�6FRWWLVK�SDVVHQJHU�WUDIILF���6FRWODQG¶V�RQO\�1DYDO�EDVH�LV�RQ�WKH�&O\GH���7KH�&O\GH�LV�SRSXODU�IRU�UHFUHDWLRQDO�VDLOLQJ��VXSSRUWLQJ�a����RI�6FRWWLVK�ERDW�EHUWKV��7KHUH�DUH�DOVR�SRSXODU�EDWKLQJ�EHDFKHV�RQ�WKH�$\UVKLUH�FRDVW����7KH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\�DQG�$\UVKLUH�FRDVW�DUH�UHODWLYHO\�XUEDQLVHG�DQG�LQGXVWULDOLVHG�FRPSDUHG�ZLWK�RWKHU�SDUWV�RI�6FRWODQG��7KLV�UHVXOWV�LQ�GLVFKDUJHV�IURP�ZDVWH�ZDWHU�WUHDWPHQW�ZRUNV�DQG�LQGXVWULDO�HIIOXHQWV�WR�HVWXDU\�DQG�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV��DV�ZHOO�DV�ZDWHU�DEVWUDFWLRQ��PDLQO\�IRU�SRZHU�JHQHUDWLRQ����3UHVVXUHV�UHVXOWLQJ�IURP�WKHVH�DFWLYLWLHV�LQFOXGH�WKH�LQWURGXFWLRQ�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�IURP�LQGXVWULDO�HIIOXHQWV�DQG�VHZDJH�ZRUNV�DQG�GXPSLQJ�RI�GUHGJH�VSRLO�IURP�KDUERXU�PDLQWHQDQFH��)LVKLQJ�XVLQJ�WUDZOV�DQG�GUHGJHV�UHVXOWV�LQ�WKH�DEUDVLRQ�RI�WKH�VHDEHG��7KHUH�

Page 58: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

DUH�DOVR�ORFDO�HIIHFWV�RI�DTXDFXOWXUH�RQ�VHDEHG�HFRORJ\��5HFUHDWLRQDO�ERDWLQJ�DQG�FRPPHUFLDO�VKLSSLQJ�DFWLYLWLHV�KDYH�SUREDEO\�OHG�WR�WKH�LQWURGXFWLRQ�RI�QRQ�QDWLYH�VSHFLHV���������� &OHDQ�DQG�6DIH��$W�WKH�DUHD�OHYHO��L�H��DOO�&O\GH�6HD��WKHUH�DUH�IHZ�FRQFHUQV�LQ�UHODWLRQ�WR�KD]DUGRXV�VXEVWDQFHV��UDGLRDFWLYLW\���RLO�DQG�FKHPLFDO�VSLOOV�DQG�DOJDO�WR[LQV���&RQWDPLQDQW�ORDGLQJV�WR�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\�DUH�ORZHU�QRZ�FRPSDUHG�WR�KLVWRULFDO�GLVFKDUJHV�EXW�D�OHJDF\�RI�ORFDOLVHG�FRQWDPLQDWHG�VHGLPHQWV�UHPDLQV��7KHVH�LQ�WXUQ�KDYH�FDXVHG�HOHYDWHG�FRQFHQWUDWLRQV�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�LQ�PXVVHOV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\���:DWHU�TXDOLW\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\�LV�FRPSURPLVHG�E\�GLVFKDUJHV�RI�LQGXVWULDO�HIIOXHQW�DQG�WUHDWHG�VHZDJH�DOWKRXJK�HIIOXHQW�WUHDWPHQW�KDV�LPSURYHG�UHVXOWLQJ�LQ�UHWXUQLQJ�SRSXODWLRQV�RI�UHVLGHQWLDO�DQG�PLJUDWRU\�ILVK���7KH�TXDOLW\�RI�EDWKLQJ�DQG�VKHOOILVK�ZDWHUV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�LV�DIIHFWHG�E\�LQSXWV�RI�EDFWHULD�IURP�GLIIXVH�VRXUFHV��ZKLFK�LQFUHDVH�GXULQJ�SHULRGV�RI�KLJK�UDLQIDOO���/RFDO�DFFXPXODWLRQV�RI�OLWWHU�DUH�REVHUYHG�RQ�VRPH�EHDFKHV�SRVVLEO\�EHLQJ�WUDQVSRUWHG�E\�WKH�SUHYDLOLQJ�FXUUHQWV��7KH�VRXUFH�LV�QRW�DOZD\V�SRVVLEOH�WR�LGHQWLI\���������� +HDOWK\�DQG�%LRORJLFDOO\�'LYHUVH��7KH�VWDWXV�RI�KDELWDWV�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�PL[HG��,QWHUWLGDO�KDELWDWV��URFN�DQG�VHGLPHQWV��DUH�GHWHULRUDWLQJ��,Q�UHODWLRQ�WR�URFN\�LQWHUWLGDO�KDELWDWV�WKLV�LV�GXH�WR�LQYDVLRQ�RI�QRQ�QDWLYH�VSHFLHV��LQ�SDUWLFXODU�ZLUHZHHG��6KDOORZ�VXEWLGDO�VHGLPHQWV�DUH�UHODWLYHO\�GHJUDGHG�ZKLOH�VKDOORZ��VXEWLGDO�URFN\�KDELWDWV�DSSHDU�WR�EH�LQ�D�EHWWHU�VWDWH���,Q�JHQHUDO��PRELOH�VSHFLHV�VXFK�DV�FHWDFHDQV��VHDOV�DQG�VHDELUGV�DOVR�VKRZ�D�PL[HG�SLFWXUH�EXW�RYHUDOO�DUH�VWDEOH�DW�WKH�DUHD�OHYHO���,Q�FRQWUDVW��WKH�UHGXFHG�SRSXODWLRQV�RI�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVK�DUH�D�PDMRU�FRQFHUQ���7KH�LQWURGXFWLRQ�DQG�HVWDEOLVKPHQW�RI�D�QXPEHU�RI�LQYDVLYH�QRQ�QDWLYH�VSHFLHV��IRU�H[DPSOH��LQWHUWLGDO�ZLUHZHHG��6DUJDVVXP�PXWLFXP��DQG�WKH�VXEWLGDO�FDUSHW�VHD�VTXLUW��'LGHPQXP�YH[LOOXP���ILUVW�IRXQG�DW�/DUJV�LQ�������LV�YHU\�FRQFHUQLQJ���������� 5HVSRQVH���)RUZDUG�/RRN��0DQ\�RI�WKH�FRQFHUQV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�WKH�&O\GH�UHVXOW�IURP�KLVWRULFDO�SUDFWLFHV�DQG�PDQDJHPHQW�DSSURDFKHV��(QKDQFHG�VFLHQWLILF�NQRZOHGJH��LPSURYHG�UHJXODWLRQ�DQG�JUHDWHU�HQYLURQPHQWDO�DZDUHQHVV�KDYH�UHVXOWHG�LQ�VLJQLILFDQW�UHGXFWLRQV�LQ�LQSXWV�RI�FRQWDPLQDQWV�DQG�LPSURYHPHQWV�LQ�ZDWHU�TXDOLW\���3UHVVXUH�RQ�FRDVWDO�DQG�LQVKRUH�KDELWDWV�LV�LQFUHDVLQJ�IURP�LQGXVWU\�VXFK�DV�WKH�SURSRVHG�+XQWHUVWRQ�SRZHU�VWDWLRQ��ZLWK�D�SRVVLEOH�FKDQJH�LQ�FRROLQJ�ZDWHU�UHTXLUHPHQWV���DTXDFXOWXUH�DQG�UHFUHDWLRQDO�DFWLYLWLHV���7KH�&O\GH�PD\�KDYH�D�SRWHQWLDO�UHVRXUFH�WR�VXSSRUW�WKH�JHQHUDWLRQ�RI�PDULQH�UHQHZDEOH�HQHUJ\��PDLQO\�RIIVKRUH�ZLQG�DQG�WLGDO��*URZWK�RI�WKH�LQGXVWU\�DQG�GHYHORSPHQW�RI�DVVRFLDWHG�LQIUDVWUXFWXUH��LQFOXGLQJ�VHDEHG�FDEOHV��LV�DQWLFLSDWHG��)XUWKHU�ZRUN�ZLOO�EH�

Page 59: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

UHTXLUHG�WR�XQGHUVWDQG�WKH�HIIHFWV�RQ�VHDVFDSHV�DQG�ODQGVFDSHV��FRPPXQLWLHV��WRXULVP�DQG�UHFUHDWLRQ���,QFUHDVLQJ�VKLSSLQJ�DFWLYLW\��SRVVLEOH�QHZ�FRQWDLQHU�IDFLOLWLHV�DW�+XQWHUVWRQ��DQG�UHFUHDWLRQDO�VDLOLQJ�ZLOO�ULVN�WKH�IXUWKHU�LQWURGXFWLRQ�RI�QRQ�QDWLYH�VSHFLHV���8QGHUZDWHU�QRLVH�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�LQGXVWULDO�DQG�UHFUHDWLRQDO�DFWLYLWLHV�LV�H[SHFWHG�WR�LQFUHDVH��7KHUH�LV�DOVR�WKH�SRVVLELOLW\�RI�LQFUHDVHG�IHUU\�WUDIILF�WR�1RUWKHUQ�,UHODQG�ZLWK�IDFLOLWLHV�LQ�/RFK�5\DQ�GXH�WR�H[SDQG����

���� &RQFOXGLQJ�5HPDUN��$V�(XURSH��WKH�8.�DQG�6FRWODQG�SUHSDUHV�WR�LPSOHPHQW�WKH�0DULQH�6WUDWHJ\�)UDPHZRUN�'LUHFWLYH��WKH�&O\GH�6HD�RIIHUV�D�SRWHQWLDOO\�H[FLWLQJ�WHVW�DUHD��ZKHUH�LQGLFDWRUV�DQG�WDUJHWV�GHVFULELQJ�*RRG�(QYLURQPHQWDO�6WDWXV��*(6��FRXOG�EH�GHYHORSHG��DQ�LQWHJUDWHG�HFRV\VWHP�PRQLWRULQJ�VFKHPH�GHYLVHG�LQYROYLQJ�FURVV�RUJDQLVDWLRQDO�ZRUNLQJ��L�H��0DULQH�6FRWODQG��6(3$��61+��DQG�D�VHULHV�RI�PDQDJHPHQW�PHDVXUHV�LPSOHPHQWHG�WR�WDNH�WKH�&O\GH�WRZDUGV�*(6�E\�WKH�WDUJHW�GDWH�RI�������7KH�&O\GH�RIIHUV��D�SUDJPDWLF�VFDOH��D�VROHO\�QDWLRQDO�PDQDJHPHQW�UHJLPH��D�YDULHG�PL[�RI�VWDWXV�DQG�SUHVVXUHV��GLYHUVH�KDELWDWV��D�UHSUHVHQWDWLYH�UDQJH�RI�VWDNHKROGHUV���

Page 60: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

��� 5B+80$1�,03$&76���),6+(5,(6��

���� 27B,QWURGXFWLRQ��7KH�ILVKLQJ�LQGXVWU\�KDV�KDG�D�PDMRU�LPSDFW�RQ�WKH�LPDJH�DQG�FKDUDFWHU�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�DQG�PDQ\�RI�LWV�FRDVWDO�WRZQV��,W�LV�D�FRPSOH[��WUDGLWLRQDO�LQGXVWU\�DQG�KROGV�JUHDW�HFRQRPLF�LPSRUWDQFH�IRU�PDQ\�UXUDO�FRPPXQLWLHV�DURXQG�6FRWODQG¶V�FRDVW��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�&O\GH��DV�ZHOO�DV�SROLWLFDO�LQIOXHQFH��660(,���������,Q�WKH�&O\GH��ILVKLQJ�RFFXUV�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�DUHD�DQG�WKH�PDLQ�ODQGLQJ�SRUWV�DUH�&DPSEHOOWRZQ��7DUEHUW��$\U�DQG�7URRQ�DQG�VRPH�VPDOOHU�ILVKLQJ�SRUWV��*UHHQRFN��/DUJV�DQG�5RWKHVD\��7KH�&O\GH�KDG�RQFH�EHHQ�D�SURGXFWLYH�ILVKHU\�IRU�GHPHUVDO��SHODJLF�DQG�VKHOOILVK�EXW�LV�QRZ�SULPDULO\�D�VKHOOILVK�ILVKHU\��7KH�ORFDWLRQV�RI�WKH�PDLQ�ILVKLQJ�SRUWV�LQ�WKH�UHJLRQ�ZKHUH�ODQGLQJV�KDYH�EHHQ�UHFRUGHG�DUH�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUH�������

)LJXUH�����7KH�ORFDWLRQV�RI�WKH�PDLQ�&O\GH�ILVKLQJ�SRUWV�ZKHUH�ODQGLQJV�KDYH�EHHQ�UHFRUGHG��$OVR�VKRZQ�DUH���QP��RUDQJH��DQG���QP��UHG��OLPLWV�IURP�WKH�FRDVW���

���� 28B/HJLVODWLRQ���,Q�6FRWWLVK�,QVKRUH�ZDWHUV�WKH�SULQFLSOH�OHJLVODWLRQ�IRU�ILVKHULHV�PDQDJHPHQW�LV�WKH�,QVKRUH�)LVKLQJ��6FRWODQG��$FW�������7KH�SULQFLSDO�ILVKHULHV�PDQDJHPHQW�OHJLVODWLRQ�$FWV�WKDW�DUH�DSSOLFDEOH�WR�WKH�&O\GH�DUH�LQFOXGHG�LQ�7DEOH������7KH�OLVW�VKRXOG�QRW�EH�FRQVLGHUHG�D�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�OLVW�DQG�GRHV�QRW�LQFOXGH�WKH�VWDWXWRU\�LQVWUXPHQWV�LPSOHPHQWHG�XQGHU�WKH�GLIIHUHQW�DFWV�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�\HDUV���

Page 61: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

�<HDU� 7LWOH������ 6HD�)LVKHULHV�6FRWODQG�$FW������ )LVKHULHV�$FW������ 1RUWK�6HD�)LVKHULHV�$FW������ )LVKHU\�+DUERXUV�$FW������ ,OOHJDO�7UDZOLQJ�$FW������ )LVKHULHV�$FW������ 6HD�)LVK�,QGXVWU\�$FW������ )LVKHU\�/LPLWV�$FW������ 6HD�)LVKHULHV�5HJXODWLRQ�$FW������ 6HD�)LVKHULHV��6KHOOILVK��$FW������ 6HD�)LVK��&RQVHUYDWLRQ��$FW������ 6HD�)LVKHULHV�$FW������ 6HD�)LVK�,QGXVWU\�$FW������ 6HD�)LVKHULHV��6KHOOILVK��$FW������ )LVKHU\�/LPLWV�$FW������ ,QVKRUH�)LVKLQJ��6FRWODQG��$FW������ 6HD�)LVKHULHV��:LOGOLIH�&RQVHUYDWLRQ��$FW������ 6HD�)LVK��&RQVHUYDWLRQ��$FW������ ,QVKRUH�)LVKLQJ��6FRWODQG��$FW������ 6HD�)LVKHULHV��6KHOOILVK��$PHQGPHQW��6FRWODQG��$FW������ 7KH�5HJLVWUDWLRQ�RI�)LVK�6HOOHUV�DQG�%X\HUV������ 0DULQH�DQG�&RDVWDO�$FW������ 0DULQH�6FRWODQG�$FW�

7DEOH�����7KH�SULQFLSDO�ILVKHULHV�PDQDJHPHQW�OHJLVODWLRQ�$FWV�WKDW�DUH�DSSOLFDEOH�WR�WKH�&O\GH��7KH�OLVW�VKRXOG�QRW�EH�FRQVLGHUHG�D�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�OLVW�DQG�GRHV�QRW�LQFOXGH�WKH�VWDWXWRU\�LQVWUXPHQWV�LPSOHPHQWHG�XQGHU�WKH�GLIIHUHQW�DFWV�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�\HDUV��

�6RPH�RI�WKH�OHJLVODWLRQ�FKDQJHV�KDYH�KDG�D�SURIRXQG�HIIHFW�RQ�WKH�EHKDYLRXU�RI�WKH�ILVKHULHV�VXFK�DV�IROORZLQJ�WKH�LQWURGXFWLRQ�RI�WKH�%X\HUV�DQG�6HOOHUV�UHJLVWUDWLRQ�LQ������ZKLFK�UHVXOWHG�LQ�DQ�DOPRVW�FRPSOHWH�VWRS�WR�EODFN�ODQGLQJV�DURXQG�6FRWODQG��+RZHYHU��VLQFH�WKH�%X\HUV�DQG�6HOOHUV�UHJXODWLRQ�WKHUH�KDV�DOVR�EHHQ�D�GUDPDWLF�LQFUHDVH�LQ�WKH�OHYHOV�RI�GLVFDUGLQJ�RI�ILQILVK�DFURVV�DOO�DJH�JURXSV�VXJJHVWLQJ�WKDW�WKH�OHJLVODWLRQ�KDV�FRQWUROOHG�ODQGLQJV�UDWKHU�WKDQ�FDWFK���$�EDQ�RQ�WUDZOLQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�ZDV�RULJLQDOO\�LQWURGXFHG�LQ�WKH�ODWH�QLQHWHHQWK�FHQWXU\�DIWHU�ILVKHU\�VFLHQWLVWV�DW�WKH�WLPH�VXJJHVWHG�WKDW�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�ILVKHULHV�ZHUH�EHFRPLQJ�GHSOHWHG�GXH�WR�H[FHVVLYH�WUDZOLQJ��7KXUVWDQ�DQG�5REHUWV���������7KH�$FW�ZDV�WKHQ�DPHQGHG�LQ������WR�LQFOXGH�EHDP�DQG�RWWHU�WUDZOLQJ�XQGHU�WKH�,OOHJDO�7UDZOLQJ��6FRWODQG��$FW�������7KH�FORVXUH�UHPDLQHG�LQ�SODFH�XQWLO������ZKHQ�WKH�6HD�)LVKHULHV��6FRWODQG��%\HODZ��1R�����FDPH�LQWR�HIIHFW�ZKLFK�SHUPLWWHG�VXPPHU����0D\�WR����6HSWHPEHU��RWWHU�WUDZOLQJ�ZLWKLQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�H[FHSW�ZLWKLQ�D���QDXWLFDO�PLOH�OLPLW��)LJXUH�������)XUWKHU�OHJLVODWLRQ�LQ�������6HD�)LVKHULHV��6FRWODQG��%\HODZV�QR�¶V����DQG�����HQDEOHG�ILVKLQJ�WR�WDNH�SODFH�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�\HDU��7KH���QDXWLFDO�PLOH�OLPLW�UHPDLQHG�XQWLO�������,QVKRUH�)LVKLQJ��6FRWODQG��$FW��ZKHQ�LW�ZDV�UHSHDOHG�XQGHU�SUHVVXUH�IURP�WKH�LQGXVWU\�GXULQJ�D�WLPH�ZKHQ�GHPHUVDO�ILQILVK�ODQGLQJV�ZHUH�LQ�GHFOLQH����5HFHQWO\�WKHUH�KDV�EHHQ�D�FDOO�WR�UH�LQVWDWH�WKH���Q�PLOH�OLPLW��PRVW�VWURQJO\�IURP�WKH�6FRWWLVK�6HD�$QJOLQJ�&RQVHUYDWLRQ�1HWZRUN��66$&1���6HD�DQJOLQJ�ZDV�DW�RQH�WLPH�D�PDMRU�VSRUW�DQG�WRXULVW�DWWUDFWLRQ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��ZKLFK�EHJDQ�LQ�WKH�����V��+RZHYHU��ZLWK�WKH�GHFOLQH�LQ�

Page 62: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

FDWFKHV�VHD�DQJOLQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�QRW�ZKDW�LW�XVHG�WR�EH��66$&1�EODPH�SRRU�ILVKHULHV�SROLFLHV�DQG�SUDFWLFHV�FRPELQHG�ZLWK�SROLWLFDO�LQHSWLWXGH��UHVXOWLQJ�LQ�WKH�UHPRYDO�RI�PDQ\�JHDU�DQG�DFFHVV�UHVWULFWLRQV�LQ�WKH�����¶V��WR�EH�WKH�UHDVRQ�WKDW�WKH�TXDOLW\�RI�VHD�DQJOLQJ�KDV�GUDVWLFDOO\�GHFOLQHG��7KLV�VXJJHVWLRQ�ZDV�IXUWKHU�VXSSRUWHG�E\�7KXUVWDQ�DQG�5REHUWV��������ZKLFK�OLQNHG�WKH�FROODSVH�RI�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVKHULHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�ZLWK�WKH�UHPRYDO�RI�WKH���QDXWLFDO�PLOH�FORVXUH���:LWK�UHJDUGV�WR�OHJLVODWLRQ�DSSOLFDEOH�WR�WKH�KHUULQJ�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��LW�ZDV�DOVR�SURKLELWHG�WR�SHODJLF�WUDZOLQJ�IRU�KHUULQJ�XQWLO�������,Q�WKH�VDPH�\HDU�D�%\HODZ�ZDV�SDVVHG�ZKLFK�SURKLELWHG�ILVKLQJ�IRU�KHUULQJ�E\�DQ\�PHWKRG�EHWZHHQ�PLGQLJKW�RQ�)ULGD\V�DQG�PLGQLJKW�RQ�6XQGD\V��7KH�VSDZQLQJ�JURXQG�IRU�KHUULQJ�ORFDWHG�RQ�WKH�%DOODQWUDH�%DQN�KDG�RULJLQDOO\�EHHQ�FORVHG�LQ������EXW�WKLV�ZDV�UHSHDOHG�LQ�������7KH�EDQN�VWD\HG�RSHQ�WR�ILVKLQJ�XQWLO������ZKHQ�D�VHDVRQDO�FORVXUH�ZDV�LQWURGXFHG�IURP����)HEUXDU\�XQWLO�WKH����$SULO�HDFK�\HDU��7KHUH�ZDV�DQ�H[HPSWLRQ�IRU�DQFKRUHG�GULIW�QHWV�EXW�WKH\�EHFDPH�LQFOXGHG�LQ�WKH�VHDVRQDO�FORVXUH�LQ�������%DLOH\�HW�DO�����������7KH�PHDVXUHV�ZKLFK�UHPDLQ�LQ�IRUFH�LQ�RUGHU�WR�SURWHFW�WKH�VSULQJ�VSDZQLQJ�KHUULQJ�DUH�DV�IROORZV���

� D�FRPSOHWH�EDQ�RQ�KHUULQJ�ILVKLQJ�IURP���-DQXDU\�WR����$SULO��

� D�FRPSOHWH�EDQ�RQ�DOO�IRUPV�RI�DFWLYH�ILVKLQJ�IURP���)HEUXDU\�WR���$SULO�RQ�WKH�%DOODQWUDH�%DQN�VSDZQLQJ�JURXQGV�

�� D�EDQ�RQ�KHUULQJ�ILVKLQJ�EHWZHHQ�������6DWXUGD\�PRUQLQJ�DQG�������6XQGD\�QLJKW��

���� 29B6WRFN�$VVHVVPHQW��,&(6�SURYLGHV�VFLHQWLILF�DGYLFH�RQ�WKH�PDQDJHPHQW�RI�WKH�LPSRUWDQW�FRPPHUFLDO�VSHFLHV�RI�ILQ�ILVK�DQG�VRPH�VKHOOILVK�VWRFNV�LQ�DOO�DUHDV�RI�WKH�QRUWK�HDVW�$WODQWLF��)RU�WKH�SXUSRVH�RI�DVVHVVPHQW��,&(6�GLYLGH�VHD�DUHDV�LQWR�VXE�DUHDV�DQG�GLYLVLRQV��$QQXDO�7RWDO�$OORZDEOH�&DWFK��7$&��TXRWDV�DUH�DJUHHG�IRU�HDFK�RI�WKH�ILVKHULHV�LQ�HDFK�GLYLVLRQ��,GHDOO\�WKHVH�DUH�EDVHG�RQ�VFLHQWLILF�DGYLFH�ZKLFK�LV�JLYHQ�LQ�DFFRUGDQFH�ZLWK�WKH�SUHFDXWLRQDU\�DSSURDFK�DQG�DLPHG�DW�NHHSLQJ�VWRFNV�DERYH�WKH�UHIHUHQFH�SRLQW�RI�%SD��LI�WKLV�LV�GHILQHG�IRU�WKH�VWRFN���7KLV�ZRUN�LV�VXPPDULVHG�LQ�WKH�DQQXDO�,&(6�DGYLFH��,&(6�LV�UHVSRQVLEOH�IRU�SURYLGLQJ�VFLHQWLILF�DGYLFH�RQ�7$&V�DQG�RWKHU�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�PHDVXUHV�WR�WKH�LQWHUQDWLRQDO�ILVKHULHV�FRPPLVVLRQV��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�(8��,Q�DGGLWLRQ��VLQFH������,&(6�KDV�JLYHQ�DGYLFH�LQ�UHODWLRQ�WR�0D[LPXP�6XVWDLQDEOH�<LHOG��06<����7KH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�IDOOV�LQWR�'LYLVLRQ�9,D�ZKLFK�VWUHWFKHV�IURP�WKH�1RUWK�&KDQQHO�RI�WKH�,ULVK�6HD�WR����1�DQG�ZHVW�WR����:�LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�FRDVW�RI�6FRWODQG�DV�IDU�HDVW�DV���:�LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�&O\GH��)RU�WKH�PDLQ�GHPHUVDO�VSHFLHV�VWRFN�DVVHVVPHQWV�DUH�FDUULHG�RXW�DW�WKH�OHYHO�RI�9,D��7KXV�DVVHVVPHQW�DQG�VHWWLQJ�RI�7RWDO�$OORZDEOH�&DWFKHV�LV�FDUULHG�RXW�DW�WKH�OHYHO�RI�WKH�µ:HVW�RI�6FRWODQG¶�UDWKHU�WKDQ�WKH�&O\GH��7KH�PDLQ�H[FHSWLRQV�WR�WKLV�DUH�&O\GH�KHUULQJ��1HSKURSV�DQG�VFDOORSV��ZKLFK�DUH�DVVHVVHG�ORFDOO\���

���� 30B3HODJLF�)LVKHULHV��������� 48B+HUULQJ��7KH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�ZDV�RQFH�WKH�FHQWUH�RI�D�PDMRU�KHUULQJ�ILVKHU\�ZKLFK�KDG�EHHQ�SURVHFXWHG�LQ�6FRWWLVK�LQVKRUH�ZDWHUV�VLQFH�WKH���WK�FHQWXU\��5RUNH��������DOWKRXJK�LW�KDV�EHHQ�VXEMHFW�WR�PDMRU�IOXFWXDWLRQV��%DLOH\�HW�DO����������7KH�ELRORJ\�RI�WKH�&O\GH�KHUULQJ�VWRFN�KDV�EHHQ�

Page 63: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

VWXGLHG�VLQFH�WKH�ODWH�����¶V�IROORZLQJ�WKH�RSHQLQJ�RI�D�WHPSRUDU\�ODERUDWRU\�DW�7DUEHUW��/RFK�)\QH��*RUGRQ�DQG�'H�6LOYD���������,Q�WKH�SDVW�WKH�ILVKHU\�ZDV�DOPRVW�HQWLUHO\�GHSHQGHQW�RQ�VSULQJ�VSDZQLQJ�KHUULQJ�ZKLFK�VSDZQ�ORFDOO\�RQ�%DOODQWUDH�%DQN�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�XQWLO�DERXW������ZKHQ�D�QHZ�FRPSRQHQW�RI�DXWXPQ�VSDZQLQJ�KHUULQJ�JUDGXDOO\�LQFUHDVHG�LQ�LPSRUWDQFH�LQ�ODQGLQJV�DQG�ZDV�SUHGRPLQDQW�E\�������+$:*���������$OWKRXJK�DXWXPQ�VSDZQHG�KHUULQJ�IRUPHG�D�JUHDWHU�SDUW�RI�WKH�&O\GH�SRSXODWLRQ��WKHUH�ZDV�QR�HYLGHQFH�RI�DXWXPQ�VSDZQLQJ�RFFXUULQJ�ZLWKLQ�WKH�)LUWK��:RRG��������6DYLOOH����������$OWKRXJK�WKHUH�KDG�EHHQ�QR�VLJQLILFDQW�FKDQJH�LQ�WKH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�WKH�WRWDO�KHUULQJ�SRSXODWLRQ��WKH�VSULQJ�VSDZQHUV�KDG�GHFUHDVHG�LQ�WKH�HDUO\�����V�ZKLFK�ZDV�DFFRPSDQLHG�E\�DQ�LQFUHDVH�LQ�WKH�DEVROXWH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�DXWXPQ�VSDZQHUV��,Q������7$&�UHJXODWLRQV�ZHUH�LPSRVHG�RQ�WKH�VWRFN�LQ�DGGLWLRQ�WR�D�FORVXUH�RI�WKH�ILVKHU\�IURP�2FWREHU�WKURXJK�WLOO�0D\�LQ�UHVSRQVH�WR�WKH�FOHDU�HYLGHQFH�RI�D�GHFUHDVH�LQ�WKH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�VSULQJ�VSDZQLQJ�KHUULQJ��%DLOH\�HW�DO����������7KH�FDXVH�RI�WKLV�GHFOLQH�PD\�EH�QDWXUDO�DV�LW�FDQ�EH�DWWULEXWHG�ZLWK�WKH�UHGXFHG�UHFUXLWPHQW�RI�WKH�ORFDO�VSULQJ�VSDZQLQJ�VWRFN��EXW�WKH�HIIHFWV�RI�LQWHQVLYH�H[SORLWDWLRQ�FDQQRW�EH�UXOHG�RXW��%DLOH\�HW�DO�����������,Q�6FRWODQG��UHFRUGV�RI�KHUULQJ�ODQGLQJV�ZHUH�NHSW�HYHQ�EHIRUH�WKH�)LVKHU\�%RDUG�IRU�6FRWODQG�ZDV�IRUPHG�LQ�������7KH�ILVKHU\�ZDV�SURVHFXWHG�E\�DQFKRUHG�GULIW�QHW�DQG�ULQJ�QHWWLQJ�XQWLO�SDLU�WUDZOLQJ�DUULYHG�LQ������DQG�EHFDPH�WKH�SUHGRPLQDQW�PHWKRG�E\�������%DLOH\�HW�DO����������&DWFKHV�LQFUHDVHG�WR�D�SHDN�EHWZHHQ�WKH�ODWH�����V�DQG�PLG�����V�DYHUDJLQJ�DURXQG��������W�SHU�DQQXP�DIWHU�ZKLFK�WKH�VWRFN�EHJDQ�WR�FROODSVH��%DLOH\���������VHH�)LJXUH��������7KH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�LV�SDUW�RI�,&(6�'LYLVLRQ�9,D�DQG�LQ�WKH�����V�DOO�WKH�KHUULQJ�VWRFNV�LQ�WKH�DGMDFHQW�DUHDV�WR�WKH�&O\GH�ZHUH�DW�D�ORZ�OHYHO��7KLV�OHG�WR�'LYLVLRQ�9,D�KHUULQJ�ILVKHU\�EHLQJ�FORVHG�LQ������EXW�EHFDXVH�RI�WKH�FRPSOH[�RULJLQ�RI�WKH�&O\GH�KHUULQJ�SRSXODWLRQ��,&(6�DGYLVHG�WKDW�WKH�DUHD�EH�WUHDWHG�DV�D�VHSDUDWHG�PDQDJHPHQW�XQLW��$�VPDOO�7$&�RI�����W�ZDV�DJUHHG�LQ������IRU�WKH�DUHD��%DLOH\�HW�DO���������DQG�WKH�ILUVW�DQDO\WLFDO�DVVHVVPHQW�ZDV�FDUULHG�RXW�LQ�������+DWILHOG�HW�DO����������0DQDJHPHQW�RI�WKH�&O\GH�KDV�UHPDLQHG�VHSDUDWH�VLQFH��������/DQGLQJV�RI�KHUULQJ�IURP�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�IOXFWXDWHG�DERXW�D�ORQJ�WHUP�DYHUDJH�RI�������W�LQ�WKH�SHULRG������������IURP�����������WKH�DYHUDJH�ODQGLQJV�ZHUH�GRZQ�WR�����W�DQG�RQO\�����W�IURP�����������ZKHQ�ODQGLQJV�EHFDPH�UHJXODWHG��6LQFH������FDWFKHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�KDYH�H[FHHGHG�������W�RQO\�RQFH��VHH�)LJXUH�������7KH�UHDVRQV�IRU�WKH�FROODSVH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�KHUULQJ�DUH�QRW�FOHDU�FXW�KRZHYHU�GHFOLQLQJ�VSDZQLQJ�VWRFN�ELRPDVV��KLJK�ILVKLQJ�PRUWDOLW\�DQG�ODFN�RI�UHFUXLWPHQW�WR�WKH�ORFDO�VSULQJ�VSDZQLQJ�VWRFN�PD\�ZHOO�KDYH�EHHQ�FDXVDWLYH��%DLOH\�HW�DO������������

)LJXUH�����+HUULQJ�ODQGLQJV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�������WRQQHV�������������6RXUFH��%DLOH\�HW�DO����������

Page 64: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

��

��

��

��

��

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

<HDU

/DQG

LQJV

���VS

ULQJ�DQ

G�DX

WXPQ�

VSDZ

QHUV�FRP

ELQH

G���

���W�

/DQGLQJV

7$&

)LJXUH������+HUULQJ�ODQGLQJV�������WRQQHV��������WR�������6SULQJ�DQG�DXWXPQ�VSDZQLQJ�KHUULQJ�FRPELQHG��$JUHHG�7$&������±�������

�7RGD\�KHUULQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�DUH�H[SORLWHG�E\�D�VPDOO�QXPEHU�RI�ORFDO�WUDZOHUV�DQG�E\�SDLU�WUDZOHUV�IURP�1RUWKHUQ�,UHODQG��7KHUH�LV�QRW�PXFK�LQIRUPDWLRQ�RQ�WKH�FXUUHQW�VWDWXV�RI�WKH�VWRFN�DV�FDWFK�DQG�VDPSOLQJ�GDWD�DYDLODELOLW\�KDV�EHHQ�PLQLPDO�VLQFH�WKH�HDUO\�����V��7KXV��WKH�SUHFLVH�VWDWXV�RI�WKH�VWRFN�LV�XQFHUWDLQ��WKH�VWRFN�LV�ORZ�EXW�WKHUH�LV�FXUUHQWO\�QR�HYLGHQW�GRZQZDUG�WUHQG��7KH�&O\GH�KHUULQJ�VWRFN�LV�UHFRJQLVHG�DV�D�VHSDUDWH�VWRFN�EXW�LV�QRW�FXUUHQWO\�DVVHVVHG�DQDO\WLFDOO\���,Q������XQGHU�WKH�SURYLVLRQV�RI�WKH�7$&�DQG�4XRWD�5HJXODWLRQV������������WKH�(XURSHDQ�&RPPLVVLRQ�KDV�GHOHJDWHG�WKH�IXQFWLRQ�RI�VHWWLQJ�WKH�7$&�IRU�FHUWDLQ�VWRFNV�ZKLFK�DUH�RQO\�ILVKHG�E\�RQH�0HPEHU�6WDWH��WR�WKDW�0HPEHU�6WDWH�±�VHWWLQJ�RXW�D�PHFKDQLVP�IRU�KRZ�WKH�7$&�VKRXOG�EH�GHWHUPLQHG��7KLV�SURYLVLRQ�FXUUHQWO\�DSSOLHV�RQO\�WR�WKH�&O\GH�+HUULQJ�VWRFN��+RZHYHU��DV�PHQWLRQHG��&O\GH�+HUULQJ�LV�D�YHU\�GDWD�SRRU�VWRFN�ZKLFK�PDNHV�WKLV�WDVN�PRUH�GLIILFXOW��,W�KDV�EHHQ�SURSRVHG��LQ�WKH�DEVHQFH�RI�D�GHWDLOHG�DVVHVVPHQW��WR�VHW�WKH�7$&�IRU������EDVHG�RQ�WKH�UHFHQW�VWDELOLW\�RI�WKH�ILVKHU\�DW�DQ�DYHUDJH�RI�WKH�7$&�VHW�IRU�WKH�ODVW���\HDUV���'HVSLWH�WKH�PDQDJHPHQW�PHDVXUHV�LPSRVHG�RQ�WKH�&O\GH�KHUULQJ�ILVKHU\�VXFK�DV�WKH�FORVXUH�RI�WKH�VSDZQLQJ�ILVKHU\��WKHUH�LV�VR�IDU�QR�HYLGHQFH�RI�UHFRYHU\�RI�WKH�UHFUXLWPHQW�WR�WKLV�VWRFN���

���� 31B'HPHUVDO�)LVKHULHV��,Q�WKH�&O\GH�\LHOGV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�LQFUHDVHG�UDSLGO\�DIWHU�WKH�UHSHDO��LQ�������RI�WKH�ORQJ�VWDQGLQJ�EDQ�RQ�WUDZOLQJ�LQ�WKH�DUHD�XS�WR���QDXWLFDO�PLOHV�IURP�WKH�FRDVW��7KH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�ODQGLQJV�FRQWLQXHG�WR�LQFUHDVH�XS�XQWLO������ZKHQ�ODQGLQJV�UHDFKHG�D�PD[LPXP�EHIRUH�VWDUWLQJ�WR�GHFOLQH��+LVORS���������,Q������WKH���QDXWLFDO�PLOH�EDQ�ZDV�DOVR�OLIWHG�LQ�RUGHU�WR�WU\�DQG�PDLQWDLQ�FDWFK�OHYHOV��7KLV�SURYHG�LQHIIHFWLYH�DQG�GHPHUVDO�ILQ�ILVK�ODQGLQJV�FRQWLQXHG�WR�GHFOLQH�XQWLO�WKH�HDUO\�����¶V�ZKHQ�WKH�GLUHFWHG�ILVKHU\�HIIHFWLYHO\�FHDVHG��+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV���������,Q�DGGLWLRQ��WKH�WRWDO�GHPHUVDO�ILVKLQJ�HIIRUW�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�KDG�ULVHQ�VLQFH�WKH�����¶V�DOPRVW�HQWLUHO\�GXH�WR�DQ�LQFUHDVH�LQ�WUDZOLQJ�IRU�1HSKURSV�IURP�ZKLFK�WKHUH�ZDV�D�ODUJH�E\�FDWFK�RI�ZKLWHILVK��$FFRUGLQJ�WR�WKH�6FRWWLVK�6HD�)LVKHULHV�6WDWLVWLFDO�7DEOHV��66)67���ZKLFK�ZHUH�SXEOLVKHG�DQQXDOO\�E\�'$)6��WKH�DQQXDO�ZHLJKWV�RI�DOO�GHPHUVDO�VSHFLHV�ODQGHG�DW�&O\GH�SRUWV��LQ�WKH�HDUO\�����¶V��UDQJHG�IURP�������WR��������WRQQHV��YDOXHG�DW������PLOOLRQ��,Q�WHUPV�RI�YDOXH��FRG�DQG�KDNH�ZHUH�WKH�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW�VSHFLHV�LQ�

Page 65: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

WKH�&O\GH�ILVKHU\��WKHVH�VSHFLHV�FRPSRVLWLRQ�RI�ODQGLQJV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�DUH�XQXVXDO�IRU�D�6FRWWLVK�LQVKRUH�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKDW�WKH�SURSRUWLRQ�RI�KDGGRFN�LV�UDWKHU�VPDOO��ZKLOH�WKDW�RI�KDNH�LV�UHODWLYHO\�ODUJH���7KH�GHPHUVDO�ILVKHU\�ZDV�VHDVRQDO�RQ�WKH�&O\GH�JURXQGV�DQG�PRVW�RI�WKH�ILVKLQJ�HIIRUW�WRRN�SODFH�GXULQJ�WKH�ZLQWHU�DQG�VSULQJ��SDUWO\�EHFDXVH�FDWFK�UDWHV�ZHUH�UHODWLYHO\�KLJK�DW�WKLV�WLPH�RI�\HDU�DQG�SDUWO\�EHFDXVH�WKH�DUHD�SURYLGHV�VKHOWHU�IURP�WKH�ZLQWHU�ZHDWKHU��7KH�&O\GH�ILVKHU\�GHSHQGV�WR�D�ODUJH�H[WHQW�RQ�\RXQJ�ILVK�DQG�WKH�UHODWLYH�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�WKH�SULQFLSOH�VSHFLHV�IOXFWXDWHV�IURP�\HDU�WR�\HDU�LQ�UHVSRQVH�WR�YDULDWLRQV�LQ�WKH�VWUHQJWK�RI�WKH�UHFUXLWLQJ�\HDU�FODVV��$OWKRXJK�WKHUH�ZDV�QR�FRQFOXVLYH�HYLGHQFH�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�SRSXODWLRQV�ZHUH�VHOI�FRQWDLQHG��DOO�WKH�PDMRU�VSHFLHV�DUH�NQRZQ�WR�VSDZQ�ZLWKLQ�RU�FORVH�WR�WKH�DUHD�DQG�WDJJLQJ�H[SHULPHQWV�KDG�VKRZQ�WKDW�WKHUH�ZDV�QRW�PXFK�PL[LQJ�EHWZHHQ�&O\GH�ILVK�DQG�WKRVH�IURP�VXUURXQGLQJ�DUHDV��+LVWRULFDOO\��WKH�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW�VLQJOH�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�GHPHUVDO�ILVKHU\�LQ�WHUPV�RI�ODQGLQJV�KDV�EHHQ�ZKLWLQJ��*DPEHOO������������,Q�������WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VWRFNV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�ZHUH�FRQVLGHUHG�WR�EH�H[SORLWHG�LQWHQVLYHO\�ZLWK�WKH�ILVKHU\�WKHUH�GHSHQGLQJ�WR�D�ODUJH�H[WHQW�RQ�WKH�\RXQJHU�DJH�JURXSV�DQG�WKXV�WKH�ILVKHU\�ZDV�KLJKO\�VHQVLWLYH�WR�YDULDWLRQV�LQ�WKH�VWUHQJWK�RI�WKH�UHFUXLWLQJ�\HDU�FODVV��+LVORS����������'HPHUVDO�ILVKLQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�KDV�FKDQJHG�GUDPDWLFDOO\�VLQFH�WKH������UHYLHZ�E\�+LVORS��6LQFH�WKH�PLG�����¶V��DV�PHQWLRQHG�SUHYLRXVO\��WKHUH�KDV�EHHQ�D�FROODSVH�LQ�WKH�VWRFNV�RI�WKH�PDLQ�FRPPHUFLDO�GHPHUVDO�VSHFLHV��FRG��KDGGRFN�DQG�ZKLWLQJ�DQG�D�WUDQVLWLRQ�WR�D�1HSKURSV�GRPLQDWHG�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��VHH�)LJXUH��������$OWKRXJK�WKH�WDUJHW�ILVKHU\�LV�1HSKURSV�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVKHULHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD�DUH�D�PL[HG�ILVKHU\�DQG�DV�D�UHVXOW�RI�WKLV�DOO�JURXQGILVK�VWRFNV�DUH�H[SORLWHG��&RG��KDGGRFN�DQG�ZKLWLQJ�DUH�WKH�SUHGRPLQDQW�URXQGILVK�FDXJKW�LQ�WKLV�PL[HG�ILVKHU\�ZLWK�KLJKHVW�FDWFKHV�LQ�WKH�ZLQWHU��DOWKRXJK�WKHUH�FDQ�DOVR�EH�LPSRUWDQW�E\�FDWFKHV�RI�RWKHU�VSHFLHV�VXFK�DV�KDNH�DQG�VDLWKH��:*16'6���������$�PL[HG�ILVKHU\�E\�LWV�QDWXUH�LV�GLIILFXOW�WR�GHWHUPLQH�DSSURSULDWH�PDQDJHPHQW�VWUDWHJLHV�IRU�DQG�LQ�UHFRJQLWLRQ�RI�WKLV��,&(6�KDV�JLYHQ�WKH�IROORZLQJ�DGYLFH�IRU�ILVKHULHV�LQ�WKH�ZHVW�RI�6FRWODQG��WKH\�VKRXOG�ILVK���

� ZLWKRXW�FDWFK�RU�GLVFDUG�RI�FRG�DQG�ZKLWLQJ�LQ�'LYLVLRQ�9,D�� ZLWK�PLQLPDO�FDWFK�RI�FRPPRQ�VNDWH�DQG�XQGXODWH�UD\��� ZLWKLQ�WKH�ELRORJLFDO�H[SORLWDWLRQ�OLPLWV�RI�DOO�RWKHU�VWRFNV�

�7KXUVWDQ�DQG�5REHUWV��������XVHG�KLVWRULFDO�UHFRUGV�DQG�DQHFGRWDO�LQIRUPDWLRQ�WR�GHVFULEH�FKDQJHV�LQ�WKH�ILVKHULHV�RI�WKH�&O\GH��,W�KDV�EHHQ�DVVHUWHG�E\�WKLV�VWXG\�WKDW�WKH�UHFRUG�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�ODQGLQJV�GHPRQVWUDWHV�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�LV�DQ�HFRV\VWHP�LQ�µHFRORJLFDO�PHOWGRZQ¶��+RZHYHU��ILVKHULHV�ODQGLQJV�GDWD�DORQH�DUH�LQVXIILFLHQW�WR�VXSSRUW�VXFK�D�VWURQJ�FODLP��)RU�H[DPSOH��GLVFDUG�GDWD�FDQ�IRUP�DQ�LPSRUWDQW�FRPSRQHQW�RI�WKH�WRWDO�VSHFLHV�FDWFK�LQ�GHPHUVDO�ILVKHULHV�DQG�RIWHQ�UHQGHU�ODQGLQJV�GDWD�LQDGHTXDWH�IRU�PRQLWRULQJ�WUHQGV�DQG�DVVHVVLQJ�WKH�VWDWH�RI�DQ�HFRV\VWHP��6WUDWRXGDNLV�HW�DO�����������)RU�WKH�SXUSRVH�RI�WKLV�UHYLHZ�LW�LV�XVHIXO�LQ�WKH�ILUVW�LQVWDQFH�WR�UHSURGXFH�WKH�WUHQGV�LQ�ODQGLQJV�IRU�WKH�ILVKHULHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�XVLQJ�KLVWRULFDO�ODQGLQJV�GDWD��)LJXUH�����VKRZV�WKH�WUHQGV�LQ�ODQGLQJV��WDNHQ�IURP�WKH�)LVKHULHV�0DQDJHPHQW�'DWDEDVH�DW�066��IRU�WKH�WKUHH�PDLQ�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VSHFLHV�FRG��KDGGRFN�DQG�ZKLWLQJ�DQG�IRU�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\��7KH�DUJXPHQWV�PDGH�E\�7KXUVWDQ�DQG�5REHUWV��������LV�HYLGHQW�IURP�WKH�SORW��WKH�GHFOLQH�LQ�GHPHUVDO�ILQ�ILVK�ODQGLQJV�FRUUHVSRQGV�ZLWK�WKH�LQFUHDVH�LQ�1HSKURSV�ODQGLQJV�DQG�WKH�WUDQVLWLRQ�WR�D�1HSKURSV�GRPLQDWHG�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH���

Page 66: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

���

����

����

����

����

����

����

���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ����

<HDU

/DQG

LQJV

��WRQ

QHV�

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

&RG

+DGGRFN

:KLWLQJ

1HSKURSV

)LJXUH�����/DQGLQJV�IURP�����������IRU�FRG��KDGGRFN��ZKLWLQJ�DQG�1HSKURSV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��,&(6�6WDW�5HFWDQJOHV���(������(������(������(���6RXUFH��066���

������� 49B&RG��7KH�$WODQWLF�FRG��*DGXV�PRUKXD��LV�IRXQG�LQ�DOO�6FRWWLVK�ZDWHUV�IURP�VKDOORZ�FRDVWDO�DUHDV�WR�ZDWHUV�GHHSHU�WKDQ����P��,W�LV�D�NH\�VSHFLHV�DV�LW�LV�DQ�LPSRUWDQW�PDULQH�SUHGDWRU�DQG�D�KLJKO\�YDOXHG�FRPPHUFLDO�UHVRXUFH�SURYLGLQJ�RQH�RI�WKH�PDMRU�ILVKHU\�UHVRXUFHV�LQ�WKH�1RUWK�$WODQWLF�GDWLQJ�EDFN�FHQWXULHV��+XJKHV�DQG�1LFNHOO��������+XWFKLQVRQ�HW�DO����������7KH\�DUH�ILVKHG�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�1RUWK�6HD�DQG�:HVW�&RDVW�RI�6FRWODQG�+RZHYHU��KLJK�H[SORLWDWLRQ�UDWHV�LQ�WKH�����V�DQG�����V�KDYH�GHSOHWHG�WKH�FRG�VWRFNV�RII�WKH�ZHVW�FRDVW�RI�6FRWODQG��OLNH�PDQ\�RWKHU�$WODQWLF�FRG�VWRFNV��WR�DQ�DOO�WLPH�ORZ�DQG�WKHVH�VWRFNV�DUH�QRZ�VKRZLQJ�VRPH�VLJQV�RI�UHFRYHU\��:ULJKW�HW�DO�����������,Q�UHVSRQVH�WR�WKH�GHSOHWHG�VWDWH�RI�WKH�FRG�VWRFNV�WKH�HPSKDVLV�RI�UHFHQW�PDQDJHPHQW�KDV�EHHQ�WR�KHOS�WKHLU�UHFRYHU\�ZLWK�WKH�LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ�RI�WKH�&RG�5HFRYHU\�3ODQ�LQ�������,&(6���������8QGHU�WKH�UHFRYHU\�SODQ�WKH�LPPHGLDWH�UHTXLUHPHQW�ZDV�WR�DOORZ�DV�PDQ\�FRG�DV�SRVVLEOH�WR�VSDZQ�EHIRUH�WKH�HQG�RI�$SULO�ZKHQ�WKH�VSDZQLQJ�VHDVRQ�ILQLVKHV��7KH�VHDVRQDO�FORVXUH�UHPDLQV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�IURP�)HEUXDU\���WK�±�$SULO���WK�ZKHQ�DOO�ERWWRP�WUDZOLQJ�LV�SURKLELWHG�LQ�WKH�RXWHU�FORVHG�DUHD�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUH�����DQG�RQO\�WUDZOLQJ�IRU�1HSKURSV�LV�DOORZHG�LQ�WKH�LQQHU�FORVHG�DUHD��,&(6�KDYH�SUHYLRXVO\�DGYLVHG�D�]HUR�FDWFK�RI�FRG�ZKLFK�ZRXOG�SURYLGH�WKH�KLJKHVW�SUREDELOLW\�RI�VWRFN�UHFRYHU\�LQ�WKH�FRQWH[W�RI�WKH�SUHFDXWLRQDU\�DSSURDFK��+RZHYHU��WKLV�ZRXOG�HIIHFWLYHO\�PHDQ�D�FORVXUH�RI�DOO�WKH�PL[HG�GHPHUVDO�DQG�1HSKURSV�ILVKHULHV�RQ�WKH�:HVW�&RDVW�DQG��GXH�WR�VRFLDO�DQG�HFRQRPLF�LVVXHV��ILVKHULHV�PDQDJHUV�KDYH�QHYHU�IXOO\�LPSOHPHQWHG�WKH�UHFRPPHQGDWLRQ�RI�µ]HUR�FDWFK¶���

Page 67: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����&O\GH�FORVHG�DUHDV�WR�ILVKLQJ�IRU�FRG��

�8QGHUVWDQGLQJ�WKH�&O\GH�FRG�VWUXFWXUH�DQG�PLJUDWLRQ�KDELWV�LV�LPSRUWDQW�IRU�WKH�ORFDO�PDQDJHPHQW�RI�WKH�VWRFN��&RG�LQ�WKH�ZHVW�RI�6FRWODQG�KDYH�VKRZQ�D�KLJK�GHJUHH�RI�ILGHOLW\�WR�WKHLU�VSDZQLQJ�JURXQGV�ZLWK�UHFHQW�VWXGLHV�HVWLPDWLQJ�WKDW�EHWZHHQ��������RI�LQVKRUH�FRG�UHPDLQV�ZLWKLQ�����NP�RI�WKHLU�VSDZQLQJ�JURXQG��:ULJKW�HW�DO����������7KH�VFDOH�RI�MXYHQLOH�DQG�DGXOW�PRYHPHQWV�LQGLFDWHG�E\�UHFHQW�VWXGLHV�VXJJHVWV�WKDW�WKHUH�DUH�VXE�VWRFNV�ZLWKLQ�,&(6�GLYLVLRQ�9,D�ZKLFK�PD\�EH�UHSURGXFWLYHO\�LVRODWHG�GXH�WR�OLPLWHG�PRYHPHQWV��7KHUHIRUH��UHFRYHU\�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�OLNHO\�WR�EH�GHSHQGHQW�RQ�VHOI�UHFUXLWPHQW�LQ�WKLV�DUHD�DQG�PRYHPHQWV�LQWR�WKH�UHJLRQ�IURP�WKH�QHDUE\�,QQHU�+HEULGHV��$OWKRXJK�WKH�FORVHG�DUHD�FRQWDLQV�DQ�LPSRUWDQW�VSDZQLQJ�DJJUHJDWLRQ��WKH�VSDWLDO�VFDOH�DQG�VHDVRQDO�OLPLW�LV�WRR�VPDOO�WR�SURWHFW�WKLV�ORFDO�VXE�VWRFN��:ULJKW����������������� 50B+DNH��7KH�GHHS�ZDWHUV�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�DUH�NQRZQ�WR�KDYH�SURYLGHG�H[FHOOHQW�ILVKLQJ�JURXQGV�IRU�KDNH��+LVORS���������,&(6�SURYLGHV�DGYLFH�IRU�WKH�1RUWKHUQ�KDNH�VWRFN�DV�D�ZLGHO\�GLVWULEXWHG�PLJUDWRU\�VWRFN�ZKLFK�FDQ�EH�IRXQG�LQ�WKH�.DWWHJDW�DQG�6NDJHUUDN�VWUDLWV�DGMRLQLQJ�1RUZD\��6ZHGHQ�DQG�'HQPDUN��LQ�WKH�1RUWK�6HD��WKH�&KDQQHO�DQG�DOVR�LQ�WKH�ZDWHUV�WR�WKH�ZHVW�RI�6FRWODQG��&XUUHQWO\�WKH�VWDWH�RI�WKH�VWRFN�LV�XQNQRZQ�EXW�WUHQGV�EDVHG�DVVHVVPHQW�LQGLFDWHV�DQ�LQFUHDVH�LQ�66%�IRU�WKH�1RUWKHUQ�KDNH�VWRFN��,&(6���������,QIRUPDWLRQ�VSHFLILF�WR�KDNH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�OLPLWHG�EXW�GLVFDUGLQJ�UDWHV�RI�MXYHQLOH�KDNH�LV�VXEVWDQWLDO�LQ�WKH�DUHD��6WUDWRXGDNLV�HW�DO����������)LJXUH�����VKRZV�WKH�ODQGLQJV�RI�KDNH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�IURP������������ZKLFK�VKRZ�D�VLJQLILFDQW�GHFOLQH�LQ�ODQGLQJV�VLQFH�WKH�HDUO\�����V�WR�YLUWXDOO\�]HUR�����

Page 68: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

���

���

���

���

����

����

����

����

����

���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ����

<HDU

/DQG

LQJV

��WRQ

QHV�

)LJXUH�����/DQGLQJV�RI�KDNH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�IURP������������,&(6�6WDW�5HFWDQJOHV���(������(������(������(���6RXUFH��066���

������ 51B6DLWKH��6DLWKH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�KDV�EHHQ�GHVFULEHG�DV�D�ERRP�DQG�EXVW�ILVKHU\��7KXUVWDQ�DQG�5REHUWV��������ZKLFK�ZDV�GLVFRYHUHG�LQ�WKH�ODWH�����V�DQG�SHDNHG�LQ������ZLWK�ODQGLQJV�RI�RYHU������WRQQHV��KRZHYHU�WKH�FDWFK�TXLFNO\�FROODSVHG�WR�YHU\�OLWWOH�E\�WKH�����V��VHH�)LJXUH���������

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

����

���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ����

<HDU

/DQGLQJV��WRQQHV�

)LJXUH�����/DQGLQJV�RI�VDLWKH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�IURP������������,&(6�6WDW�5HFWDQJOHV���(������(������(������(���6RXUFH��066���

���� 32B6KHOOILVK�ILVKHULHV��������� 52B1HSKURSV��7KH�/DQJRXVWLQH��1RUZD\�/REVWHU��'XEOLQ�%D\�3UDZQ��RU�1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV��/��LV�WKH�PRVW�FRPPHUFLDO�VKHOOILVK�UHVRXUFH�LQ�8.�ZDWHUV�DQG�LV�H[WHQVLYHO\�H[SORLWHG�WKURXJKRXW�

Page 69: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

(XURSH��8S�XQWLO�WKH�HDUO\�����¶V�1HSKURSV�DWWUDFWHG�OLWWOH�FRPPHUFLDO�DWWHQWLRQ�LQ�6FRWODQG�DQG�ZDV�UDUHO\�RQ�VDOH�LQ�WKH�UHJLRQ��+RZHYHU��LQ�WKH�ODVW����\HDUV�DQ�LPSRUWDQW�ILVKHU\�IRU�1HSKURSV�KDV�GHYHORSHG�LQ�6FRWODQG�DQG�LV�QRZ�WKH�ODUJHVW�LQ�(XURSH��7KHVH�GHYHORSPHQWV�ZHUH�GHOD\HG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�E\�WKH�+HUULQJ�)LVKHU\��6FRWODQG��$FW�������ZKLFK�SURKLELWHG�RWWHU�DQG�EHDP�WUDZOLQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�XQWLO������ZKHQ�RWWHU�WUDZOLQJ�IRU�1HSKURSV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�ZDV�SHUPLWWHG�LQ�WKH�VXPPHU��%DLOH\�HW�DO���������6KHOOILVK�VXFK�DV�1HSKURSV��VFDOORSV��OREVWHU��HGLEOH�DQG�YHOYHW�FUDE�DUH�QRZ�WKH�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW�UHVRXUFH�WR�WKH�LQVKRUH�IOHHW�RI�WKH�UHJLRQ��7KH�PDMRULW\�RI�WKH�LQVKRUH�WUDZOLQJ�IOHHW�DUH�GHSHQGHQW�RQ�1HSKURSV�ZKLFK�DUH�ODQGHG�DOO�\HDU���'XULQJ�WKH�VXPPHU�1HSKURSV�DUH�H[SORLWHG�E\�WKH�&O\GH�IOHHW�WR�WKH�ZHVW�RI�WKH�.LQW\UH�SHQLQVXOD�DQG�LQ�WKH�PRUH�VKHOWHUHG�DQG�DFFHVVLEOH�ZDWHUV�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�LQ�WKH�ZLQWHU�PRQWKV��1HSKURSV�DUH�WDUJHWHG�E\�VPDOO�GHPHUVDO�WUDZOHUV�RI�QR�PRUH�WKDQ����P�DQG�DUH�DOORZHG�WR�XVH�D��PHVK�VL]H�RI���PP��SULRU�WR�������DQG���PP�IURP������RQZDUGV�LQ�WKH�FRG�HQG�SURYLGHG�SURYLGHG�WKDW�1HSKURSV�FRQVWLWXWH�D�FHUWDLQ�PLQLPXP�SURSRUWLRQ�E\�ZHLJKW�RI�WKH�WRWDO�ODQGLQJV��7XFN�HW�DO���������,&(6����������,Q�PRUH�GHWDLO��WKH�FKDQJHV�LQ�WHFKQLFDO�PHDVXUH�UHJXODWLRQV�DSSO\LQJ�RQ�WKH�:HVW�RI�6FRWODQG��,&(6�9,D��ZHUH�GHVLJQHG�WR�LPSURYH�WKH�VHOHFWLYLW\�DQG�UHGXFH�XQZDQWHG�FDWFKHV�RI�VPDOO�ILVK��7KH�PLQLPXP�PHVK�VL]H�LQ�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�ZDV�LQFUHDVHG�IURP���PP�WR���PP�DV�SDUW�RI�WKH������(8�HPHUJHQF\�PHDVXUHV�WR�GHDO�ZLWK�UHGXFHG�JDGRLG�SRSXODWLRQV��$�VHFRQG�PHDVXUH�ZDV�WKH�UHTXLUHPHQW�IRU�1HSKURSV�YHVVHOV�RSHUDWLQJ�RQ�WKH�ZHVW�FRDVW�WR�XVH�D�VTXDUH�PHVK�SDQHO�ZLWK�D�PHVK�VL]H�RI����PP�DV�SDUW�RI�WKH�6FRWWLVK�&RQVHUYDWLRQ�&UHGLWV�VFKHPH��LQ�SODFH�VLQFH���������2ZLQJ�WR�LWV�EXUURZLQJ�EHKDYLRXU��WKH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�1HSKURSV�LV�UHVWULFWHG�WR�DUHDV�RI�D�SDUWLFXODU�VHGLPHQW�W\SH��PXG��VDQG\�PXG�DQG�PXGG\�VDQG��%XUURZ�GHQVLW\�DQG�DQLPDO�VL]H�DUH�UHODWHG�WR�VHGLPHQW�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�DQG�K\GURJUDSK\��&KDSPDQ�DQG�%DLOH\���������$URXQG�6FRWODQG�LW�KDV�EHHQ�IRXQG�WKDW�DUHDV�RI�ILQH�VHGLPHQWV�DUH�FKDUDFWHULVHG�E\�ODUJH�1HSKURSV�RFFXUULQJ�LQ�ORZ�GHQVLWLHV�DQG�DUHDV�RI�FRDUVHU�VHGLPHQWV�DUH�FKDUDFWHULVHG�E\�VPDOOHU�1HSKURSV�DW�KLJKHU�GHQVLWLHV��7XOO\�DQG�+LOOLV���������,Q�WKH�&O\GH��EXUURZ�GHQVLWLHV�DUH�KLJKHU�LQ�WKH�VRXWK�DQG�WKH�DYHUDJH�VL]H�RI�1HSKURSV�LV�VPDOOHU��7KLV�LV�SDUWLFXODUO\�HYLGHQW�IURP�WKH�GLIIHUHQFHV�LQ�GLVFDUG�FRPSRVLWLRQ�EHWZHHQ�WKH�QRUWK�DQG�WKH�VRXWK�RI�WKH�&O\GH��&DWFKHV�IURP�WKH�VRXWK�KDYH�D�KLJKHU�SURSRUWLRQ�RI�VPDOO�1HSKURSV�UHVXOWLQJ�LQ�ODUJH�SURSRUWLRQV�RI�XQGHUVL]HG�1HSKURSV�DQG�1HSKURSV�KHDGV��%HUJPDQQ�HW�DO����������7UDZOV�LQ�WKH�VRXWK�DOVR�JHQHUDWH�ODUJHU�TXDQWLWLHV�RI�URXQGILVK�GLVFDUGV��������LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�LPSRUWDQW�FRPPHUFLDO�VSHFLHV�ZKLWLQJ��FRG�DQG�KDGGRFN��%HUJPDQQ�HW�DO����������1HSKURSV�VWRFNV�KDYH�EHHQ�LGHQWLILHG�RQ�WKH�EDVLV�RI�SRSXODWLRQ�GLVWULEXWLRQV�ZKLFK�DUH�GHILQHG�DV�VHSDUDWH�IXQFWLRQDO�XQLWV��)8��DQG�DUH�WKH�OHYHO�DW�ZKLFK�,&(6�:RUNLQJ�*URXSV�FROOHFWV�ILVKHU\�GDWD�DQG�SHUIRUPV�DVVHVVPHQWV��7KH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��)8����LV�RQH�RI�WKUHH�GLVWLQFW�IXQFWLRQDO�XQLWV�ZLWKLQ�,&(6�DUHD�9,D�ZKHUH�6FRWODQG¶V�1HSKURSV�VWRFNV�DUH�DVVHVVHG��DOWKRXJK�WKH�VWRFNV�DUH�FRQVLGHUHG�WR�EH�IXQFWLRQDOO\�VHSDUDWH�WKH\�DUH�FXUUHQWO\�PDQDJHG�XQGHU�WKH�:HVW�RI�6FRWODQG�VLQJOH�VWRFN�GHILQLWLRQ���6XUYH\�DVVHVVPHQWV�RI�WKH�VWRFN�DUH�FDUULHG�RXW�DQQXDOO\�E\�DQ�XQGHUZDWHU�79�VXUYH\��8:79��ZKLFK�GHWHUPLQHV�1HSKURSV�EXUURZ�GHQVLW\�RQ�WKH�VHDEHG��7KH�LQIRUPDWLRQ�JDWKHUHG�SURYLGHV�DQ�LQGH[�RI�VWRFN�DEXQGDQFH�ZKLFK�LV�LQGHSHQGHQW�RI�WKH�ILVKHU\�DQG�WRJHWKHU�SURYLGHV�LQIRUPDWLRQ�RQ�WKH�VWDWXV�DQG�SUHGLFWHG�VWRFN�OHYHO���7KH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�KDV�DOVR�GHYHORSHG�LQ�UHFHQW�\HDUV�GXH�WR�DQ�LQFUHDVH�LQ�FDWFKHV�E\�VWDWLF�JHDU�VXFK�DV�FUHHOLQJ��$OPRVW�DOO�RI�WKH�&O\GH�LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�VHDORFKV�LV�WDUJHWHG�E\�ERWWRP�WUDZOHUV�ILVKLQJ�IRU�1HSKURSV��906�GDWD�OLQNHG�WR�ODQGLQJV�VKRZV�WKH�DUHDV�ZKLFK�DUH�WDUJHWHG�E\�ERDWV�JUHDWHU�WKDQ���P�LQ�OHQJWK��)LJXUH�������7KLV�ILJXUH�VXJJHVWV�WKDW�WKH�DUHD�FRYHUHG�E\�WKH�8:79�VXUYH\�LV�VOLJKWO\�VPDOOHU�WKDQ�WKH�DUHD�FRYHUHG�E\�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�

Page 70: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

�:*&6(���������7KH�SHUFHSWLRQ�RI�WKH�VWDWH�RI�WKH�VWRFN�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�LV�WKDW�LW�LV�VWDEOH�DQG�ZLWK�WKH�UHFHQW�KLJK�FDWFKHV�E\�WUDZOHUV�LW�LV�SHUFHLYHG�WR�EH�D�VXVWDLQDEOH�ILVKHU\��+RZHYHU��D�UHGXFWLRQ�LQ�DEXQGDQFH�LQ������FRXSOHG�ZLWK�WKH�LQFUHDVH�LQ�ODQGLQJV�KDV�OHG�,&(6�WR�DGYLVH�D�PRUH�SUHFDXWLRQDU\�DSSURDFK�LQ�UHFHQW�\HDUV��)LJXUH��������

)LJXUH�����7KH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�906�SLQJV��VKRZQ�LQ�UHG��UHFRUGHG�IURP�1HSKURSV�WUDZOHUV�!���P�OHQJWK�LQ�������

)LJXUH�����1HSKURSV��&O\GH��)8�����)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�VXEDUHD��7LPH�VHULHV�RI�UHYLVHG�79�VXUYH\�DEXQGDQFH�HVWLPDWHV��QRW�DGMXVWHG�IRU�ELDV���ZLWK�����FRQILGHQFH�LQWHUYDOV���6RXUFH��,&(6���������

�)RU�PRVW�DQDO\WLFDO�PRGHOV�XVHG�IRU�DVVHVVPHQW�SXUSRVHV��LW�LV�DVVXPHG�WKDW�WKH�SRSXODWLRQ�LV�KRPRJHQRXV�LQ�WHUPV�RI�LWV�ELRORJLFDO�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV��7KH�1HSKURSV�VWRFN�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�KDV�EHHQ�VKRZQ�WR�FRQVLVW�RI�D�PL[WXUH�RI�VXE�XQLW�SRSXODWLRQV�GLIIHULQJ�IURP�HDFK�RWKHU�LQ�JURZWK��VL]H�FRPSRVLWLRQ�DQG�GHQVLW\�ZKLFK�LQYDOLGDWHV�WKH�DVVXPSWLRQ�RI�KRPRJHQHLW\�� ��

Page 71: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

7KH�QRUWK�HDVW�$WODQWLF�1HSKURSV�WUDZOLQJ�ILVKHULHV�KDYH�EHHQ�UDQNHG�DV�KDYLQJ�WKH�ILIWK�KLJKHVW�GLVFDUG�UDWLR�LQ�WKH�ZRUOG��QXPEHU�RI�E\�FDWFK�WR�QXPEHU�RI�WDUJHW�VSHFLHV���&DWFKSROH�HW�DO���������8QVXUSULVLQJO\�WKH�GLVFDUGLQJ�UDWHV�DUH�DOVR�KLJK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�ZLWK�WKH�SURSRUWLRQ�RI�WKH�FDWFK�GLVFDUGHG�EHLQJ�HVWLPDWHG�EHWZHHQ����DQG�����LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��%HUJPDQQ�HW�DO���������6WUDWRXGDNLV�HW�DO����������7KH�GLVFDUGV�PDLQO\�FRQVLVW�RI�VPDOO�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�SDUWLFXODUO\�\RXQJ�ZKLWLQJ��0HUODQJLXV�PHUODQJXV���6WUDWRXGDNLV�HW�DO��������DQG�VHH�6HFWLRQ�����7KH�XVH�RI�PRUH�VHOHFWLYH�JHDU�FDQ�KHOS�UHGXFH�E\�FDWFK�OHYHOV�VXFK�DV�WKH�XVH�RI�WKH�6ZHGLVK�VHOHFWLRQ�JULG��1RUGPRUH�JULG��ZKLFK�PD\�DOORZ�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�WR�EH�GHFRXSOHG�IURP�FRG�DQG�RWKHU�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VSHFLHV��9DOHQWLQVVRQ�DQG�8OPHVWUDQG���������7KH�6ZHGLVK�JULG�KDV�EHHQ�DGRSWHG�E\�WKH�6ZHGLVK�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�DQG�KDV�UHFHQWO\�EHHQ�WULDOOHG�IRU�WKH�ZHVW�FRDVW�RI�6FRWODQG�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\��066���������7KH�WULDOV�UHVXOWHG�LQ�D�VLJQLILFDQW�ORVV�LQ�WKH�VPDOOHU�1HSKURSV���������PP�FDUDSDFH�OHQJWK��DWWULEXWHG�WR�WKH�VHOHFWLRQ�RI�WKH���PP�FRG�HQG�DQG�QR�VLJQLILFDQW�ORVV�RI�ODUJHU�1HSKURSV��066���������7KHUH�KDV��KRZHYHU��EHHQ�D�UHOXFWDQFH�WR�DGRSW�WKLV�PHWKRG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�GXH�WR�KDQGOLQJ�GLIILFXOWLHV�DQG�WKH�GHFUHDVH�LQ�UHWHQWLRQ�RI�WKH�ODUJHU�VL]H�FODVVHV�RI�1HSKURSV���������� 53B6FDOORSV��7KH�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW�FRPPHUFLDO�PROOXVFDQ�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUH�WKH�VFDOORS��3HFWHQ�PD[LPXV��DQG�WKH�UHODWHG�EXW�VPDOOHU�TXHHQ�VFDOORS��&KODP\V�RSHUFXODULV���%RWK�VSHFLHV�RFFXU�ZKHUHYHU�WKH�VHD�EHG�FRQVLVWV�RI�VDQG��ILQH�JUDYHO�RU�VDQG\�JUDYHO��7KH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�VXLWDEOH�VHGLPHQWV�UHVXOWV�LQ�WKH�VSHFLHV�EHLQJ�IRXQG�LQ�D�QDUURZ�VWULS�RI�VHD�EHG�RQ�HDFK�VLGH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�DQG�DURXQG�$UUDQ�LQ�GHSWKV�QR�JUHDWHU�WKDQ���P��0DVRQ�DQG�)UDVHU���������%RWK�WKH�VFDOORS�DQG�WKH�TXHHQ�DUH�ILOWHU�IHHGHUV��WKH�VFDOORS�OLHV�UHFHVVHG�LQ�WKH�VHGLPHQW��WKH�TXHHQ��KRZHYHU��GR�QRW�UHFHVV�LQWR�WKH�VHGLPHQW�DQG�ZLOO�VZLP�VSRUDGLFDOO\�IRU�D�VKRUW�WLPH���$�GUHGJH�ILVKHU\�IRU�WKH�VFDOORS�VWDUWHG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�LQ�WKH�����¶V�EXW�UHPDLQHG�VPDOO�GXULQJ�WKH�����V�DQG�����V�ZLWK�ODQGLQJV�DYHUDJLQJ����W��0DVRQ��������EXW�WKH�VFDOORS�ILVKHU\�SURYLGHG�D�XVHIXO�LQFRPH�IRU�D�IHZ�ERDWV�EHWZHHQ�RWKHU�ILVKHULHV��,Q�WKH�����V�WKHUH�ZDV�D�UDGLFDO�FKDQJH�LQ�WKH�ILVKHU\��D�ODUJH�GHPDQG�IRU�VFDOORSV�KDG�GHYHORSHG�LQ�FRQWLQHQWDO�(XURSH�UHVXOWLQJ�LQ�D�KXJH�H[SDQVLRQ�RI�WKH�ILVKHU\��7KH�DGYHQW�RI�SURFHVVLQJ�IDFWRULHV�LQ�6FRWODQG�DOVR�DOORZHG�ILVKLQJ�IRU�VFDOORSV�WR�RFFXU�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�\HDU��0DVRQ�DQG�)UDVHU���������6FDOORSV�DUH�QRZ�H[SORLWHG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�E\�D�IOHHW�RI�GUHGJLQJ�ERDWV�ZKLFK�GHYHORSHG�LQ�WKH�DUHD�LQ�WKH�ODWH�����¶V��7KH�$\U�DQG�&DPSEHOWRZQ�)LVKHU\�'LVWULFW��LQFOXGHV�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD�DQG�KDV�EHHQ�WKH�PDMRU�ORFXV�RI�WKH�ILVKHU\�LQ�6FRWODQG�VLQFH�WKH�ILVKHU\�EHJDQ���7KH�WUDGLWLRQDO�PHWKRG�RI�FDWFKLQJ�VFDOORSV�LV�E\�GUHGJH�ZKLFK�EDVLFDOO\�FRQVLVWV�RI�D�ULJLG�PHWDO�IUDPH�DQG�WRRWKHG�EDU�WKDW�GLJV�LQWR�WKH�VHD�EHG�DW�DQ�DQJOH�RI���������WKLV�LV�WRZHG�DORQJ�WKH�VHD�EHG�DQG�WKH�VFDOORSV�DUH�VFUDSHG�LQWR�D�QHWWHG�EDJ��0DVRQ���������,Q�WKH�HDUO\�GD\V�RI�WKH�6FRWWLVK�VFDOORS�ILVKHU\��$�VPDOO�SHUFHQWDJH�RI�WKH�FDWFK�LV�DOVR�WDNHQ�E\�KDQG�E\�6&8%$�GLYHUV�DORQJ�WKH�FRDVW��)LJXUH������VKRZV�WKH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�9HVVHO�0RQLWRULQJ�6\VWHP��906��SLQJV�IURP�VFDOORS�ERDWV�JUHDWHU�WKDQ���P��WKLV�SORW�LQGLFDWHV�WKDW�VFDOORS�GUHGJLQJ�E\�ODUJHU�YHVVHOV�RFFXUV�PRVWO\�DORQJ�WKH�FRDVW�RI�WKH�&O\GH��

Page 72: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH������7KH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�906�SLQJV��VKRZQ�LQ�EOXH��UHFRUGHG�IURP�VFDOORS�YHVVHOV�!���P�OHQJWK�LQ�������

�0DQ\�ILVKHULHV�DUH�FRQWUROOHG�E\�RQH�RU�PRUH�RI�D�QXPEHU�RI�W\SHV�RI�PHDVXUHV�VXFK�DV�TXRWD�UHVWULFWLRQV��PHVK�UHJXODWLRQV��PLQLPXP�ODQGLQJ�VL]H��FORVHG�DUHDV�DQG�VHDVRQDO�FORVXUHV��1RW�DOO�RI�WKHVH�PHDVXUHV�DUH�VXLWDEOH�IRU�VFDOORSV�GXH�WR�WKH�IUDJPHQWHG�QDWXUH�RI�WKH�ILVKHULHV�ZKLFK�LV�SURVHFXWHG�LQ�UHPRWH�DUHDV�DQG�ODQGHG�LQ�PDQ\�LVRODWHG�KDUERXUV��7KH�PRVW�DSSOLFDEOH�PHDVXUH�IRU�FRQVHUYLQJ�VFDOORS�VWRFNV�LV�WKH�PLQLPXP�ODQGLQJ�VL]H�DQG�LV�WKH�PRVW�FRPPRQO\�SUDFWLVHG��0DVRQ���������,Q�6HSWHPEHU������7KH�3URKLELWLRQ�RI�)LVKLQJ�IRU�6FDOORSV��6FRWODQG��2UGHU������ZDV�LPSOHPHQWHG��7KLV�SXW�LQ�SODFH�QHZ�PHDVXUHV�IRU�VFDOORS�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�WKDW�OLPLWHG�WKH�QXPEHU�RI�GUHGJHV�D�VFDOORS�YHVVHO�FDQ�WRZ�WR�D�PD[LPXP�RI���SHU�VLGH�IRU�6FRWWLVK�,QVKRUH�ZDWHUV��)56���������&XUUHQWO\�WKHUH�LV�QR�FDWFK�OLPLW�RQ�8.�VFDOORS�ILVKHULHV��7KH\�DUH�PRVWO\�PDQDJHG�WKURXJK�PLQLPXP�VL]HV��UHVWULFWLRQ�RQ�GUHGJH�QXPEHUV�DQG�VHDVRQDO�FORVXUHV�LQ�VRPH�DUHDV��6FDOORS�VWRFNV�DUH�KLJKO\�VXVFHSWLEOH�WR�RYHUILVKLQJ�GXH�WR�WKHLU�OLPLWHG�PRELOLW\�DQG�FRQILQHPHQW�WR�D�SDUWLFXODU�W\SH�RI�VHD�EHG��+RZHYHU��VFDOORS�VWRFNV�KDYH�ODUJHO\�KHOG�XS�ZHOO�RQ�DOO�JURXQGV��HYHQ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�ZKHUH�ILVKLQJ�KDV�JRQH�RQ�WKH�ORQJHVW���7KH�KLVWRULFDO�ODQGLQJV�VHULHV�VKRZV�PDUNHG�IOXFWXDWLRQV�UHVXOWLQJ�IURP�D�FRPELQDWLRQ�RI�YDULDEOH�UHFUXLWPHQW�DQG�FKDQJHV�LQ�ILVKLQJ�HIIRUW��,&(6���������$IWHU�WKH�UDSLG�GHYHORSPHQW�RI�WKH�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�ODWH�����V��ODQGLQJV�GHFOLQHG�VKDUSO\�LQ�WKH�HDUO\�����V��RQO\�WR�LQFUHDVH�DJDLQ�UHDFKLQJ�D�SHDN�LQ�WKH�ODWH�����V��)ROORZLQJ�WKH�KLJK�UHSRUWHG�ODQGLQJV�RI�������ODQGLQJV�GHFOLQHG�WR�D�ORZ�SRLQW�LQ������DIWHU�ZKLFK�WKH\�LQFUHDVHG�IDLUO\�VWHDGLO\�XQWLO������DQG�KDYH�IOXFWXDWHG�VLQFH�WKHQ��SUREDEO\�LQIOXHQFHG�E\�WKH�HIIHFW�RI�DUHD�FORVXUHV��,&(6���������7KH�KLVWRULFDO�ODQGLQJV�VKRZ�WKDW�XQWLO�UHFHQWO\�DQQXDO�ODQGLQJV�KDYH�EHHQ��W\SLFDOO\��EHWZHHQ�����DQG�����WRQQHV��+RZHYHU��VLQFH�������WKHUH�KDV�EHHQ�DQ�XSZDUG�WUHQG�ZLWK�WKH������ODQGLQJV�H[FHHGLQJ�����WRQQHV�IRU�WKH�ILUVW�WLPH�VLQFH�WKH�PLG�����¶V��VHH�)LJXUH��������7KH�PRVW�UHFHQW�DVVHVVPHQW�IRU�VFDOORSV�ZDV�GRQH�LQ������ZKLFK�LV�PDLQO\�GXH�WR�D�ODFN�RI�GDWD�DQG�WKH�IDFW�WKDW�VDPSOLQJ�RI�&O\GH�VFDOORS�ODQGLQJV�LV�TXLWH�OLPLWHG�DQG�LUUHJXODU��%HFDXVH�RI�OLPLWHG�SRUW�VDPSOLQJ��WKH�DJH�FRPSRVLWLRQ�GDWD�DUH�LQVXIILFLHQW�WR�FDUU\�RXW�D�

Page 73: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

93$�DVVHVVPHQW�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�DQG�QR�VXUYH\�GDWD�LV�DYDLODEOH��,&(6���������&DWFKHV�DUH�UHSRUWHG�E\�LQGLYLGXDO�,&(6�UHFWDQJOHV�DQG�LQ�UHFHQW�\HDUV�UHFWDQJOH���(��KDV�DFFRXQWHG�IRU�DOPRVW�DOO�RI�VFDOORS�&O\GH�ODQGLQJV��$OO�UHFRUGHG�ODQGLQJV�DUH�WDNHQ�E\�GUHGJH�DQG�WKH�PDLQ�ODQGLQJ�SRUWV�DUH�LQ�&DPSEHOWRZQ��7URRQ�DQG�$\U���

���

���

���

���

���

���

���

���� ���� ���� ���� ����

<HDU

/DQG

LQJV��WRQ

QHV�

)LJXUH������/DQGLQJV�RI�VFDOORSV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�IURP������������6RXUFH��066���

������� 54B2WKHU�6KHOOILVK��7KHUH�DUH�VPDOO�FUHHO�ILVKHULHV�IRU�FUDEV��OREVWHUV�DQG�VKULPS�PRVWO\�RQ�D�SDUW�WLPH�EDVLV��*DWKHULQJ�PXVVHOV�ZDV�D�IORXULVKLQJ�LQGXVWU\�LQ�6FRWODQG�DW�WKH�HQG�RI�WKH�QLQHWHHQWK�FHQWXU\�DQG�DFFRXQWHG�IRU�����RI�WKH�WRWDO�VKHOOILVK�ODQGLQJV��EXW�QRZ�RQO\�D�IHZ�DUH�WDNHQ��PDLQO\�LQ�WKH�ORFKV�DQG�PDLQO\�IRU�KXPDQ�FRQVXPSWLRQ��%HGV�RI�FRFNOHV�DUH�IRXQG�LQ�VHYHUDO�SDUWV�RI�WKH�&O\GH��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�,VOH�RI�%XWH��WKH�$\UVKLUH�FRDVW�DQG�DW�6WUDQUDHU��0DVRQ�DQG�)UDVHU���������7KH�QDWLYH�R\VWHU�ZDV�RQFH�DEXQGDQW�DQG�ZLGHVSUHDG�LQ�6FRWWLVK�ZDWHUV�DQG�QRZ�LW�LV�VFDUFH�ZLWK�WKH�RQO\�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVKHU\�UHPDLQLQJ�LQ�6FRWODQG�LV�LQ�/RFK�5\DQ��61+��������0DVRQ�DQG�)UDVHU���������$URXQG�WKH�$UUDQ�FRDVW�HOHFWULF�ILVKLQJ�IRU�UD]RU�ILVK�LV�NQRZQ�WR�RFFXU��)LVKLQJ�IRU�UD]RUV�XVLQJ�HOHFWULFLW\�LV�UHSRUWHG�WR�EH�D�YHU\�HIIHFWLYH�PHWKRG��+RZHYHU��WKHUH�LV�OLPLWHG�NQRZOHGJH�RI�WKH�HIIHFW�RI�WKH�HOHFWULF�ILHOG�RQ�RWKHU�VSHFLHV��%UHHQ�HW�DO����������7KH�OHJDOLW\�RI�XVLQJ�HOHFWULFLW\�DV�D�ILVKLQJ�PHWKRG�LV�DQ�LVVXH�RI�FRQFHUQ���

���� 33B6HD�$QJOLQJ��6HD�DQJOLQJ�LV�D�ORQJ�HVWDEOLVKHG�OHLVXUH�DFWLYLW\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�DQG�WKH�DUHD�RQFH�KDG�D�UHSXWDWLRQ�RI�EHLQJ�RQH�RI�WKH�EHVW�VHD�DQJOLQJ�GHVWLQDWLRQV�LQ�WKH�8.��7KH�8SSHU�&O\GH�KDV�H[SHULHQFHG�D�VLJQLILFDQW�GHFOLQH�LQ�VHD�DQJOLQJ��/DUJH�QXPEHU�RI�DQJOHUV�ZHUH�DWWUDFWHG�DQG�ILVKHG�IURP�ERWK�ERDW�DQG�WKH�VKRUH�DQG�WKHUH�LV�HYLGHQFH�WKDW�VRPH�WUDYHOOHG�RQ�D�IDLUO\�UHJXODU�EDVLV�IURP�DV�IDU�DILHOG�DV�WKH�(QJOLVK�0LGODQGV���7KH�JRYHUQLQJ�ERG\�LV�WKH�6FRWWLVK�)HGHUDWLRQ�RI�6HD�$QJOHUV��ZKLFK�KDV�DSSUR[LPDWHO\����DIILOLDWHG�FOXEV��0XULVRQ�DQG�5REVRQ���������6HD�$QJOLQJ�KDV�WKUHH�PDLQ�IRUPV��DQJOLQJ�IURP�WKH�VKRUH��LQVKRUH�ILVKLQJ��DQG�GHHS�VHD�ILVKLQJ��6HD�DQJOLQJ�RFFXUV�WKURXJKRXW�WKH�&O\GH�DQG�WKH�DUHD�RQFH�KHOG�PDMRU�FRPSHWLWLRQV�LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�6FRWWLVK�2SHQ�6KRUH��WKH�(XURSHDQ�

Page 74: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

%RDW�&RG�)HVWLYDO�DQG�WKH�6DOWFRDWV�6HD�$QJOLQJ�&RPSHWLWLRQ��,Q�WKHLU�SULPH������V���WKHVH�FRPSHWLWLRQV�DWWUDFWHG�XS�WR������HQWUDQWV�DQG�YLVLWLQJ�DQJOHUV�HQMR\HG�XQSDUDOOHOHG�VSRUW��'RQQHOO\�HW�DO���������66$&1����������,Q�UHVSRQVH�WR�VKDUS�IDOOV�LQ�DQJOHU�QXPEHU��DQG�WKH�SRRU�FDWFKHV�LQ�WKH������:KLWH�+RUVH�:KLVN\�FRPSHWLWLRQ��WKH�6FRWWLVK�7RXULVW�%RDUG�FRPPLVVLRQHG�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$QJOLQJ�6WXG\��&6$6���$IWHU�UHYLHZLQJ�WKH�DYDLODEOH�HYLGHQFH��WKH�&6$6�VWXG\�FRQFOXGHG�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�ILVK�VWRFNV�GHFOLQHG�DV�D�UHVXOW�RI�WKH�LQFUHDVHG�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVKLQJ�HIIRUW��PXFK�RI�ZKLFK�UHVXOWHG�GLUHFWO\�IURP�WKH�,QVKRUH�)LVKLQJ��6FRWODQG��$FW������ZKLFK�RSHQHG�XS�WKH�]HUR�WR�WKUHH�PLOH�]RQH�WR�DOO�PRELOH�JHDU�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\���7KHUH�ZDV��KRZHYHU��QR�SROLF\�UHVSRQVH�DQG�D�JUHDW�PDQ\�VHD�DQJOLQJ�GHSHQGHQW�MREV�ZHUH�VXEVHTXHQWO\�ORVW��DV�&6$6�KDG�SUHGLFWHG��7KH�DQJOLQJ�FKDUWHU�IOHHW�KDV�QRZ�JRQH�DQG�DQJOHU�QXPEHUV�DUH�PXFK�UHGXFHG��0DULQH�6FRWODQG����������

���� 34B(QYLURQPHQWDO�(IIHFWV�RI�)LVKLQJ��,W�LV�FOHDU�WKDW�WKH�SULPDU\�REMHFWLYH�RI�DOO�ILVKHU\�PDQDJHPHQW�VWUDWHJLHV�PXVW�EH�WR�GHWHUPLQH�ILVKLQJ�SUHVVXUH�RQ�ILVK�VWRFNV�LQ�RUGHU�WR�PDQDJH�WKLV�SUHVVXUH�DQG�PDLQWDLQ�D�VXVWDLQDEOH�LQGXVWU\��+RZHYHU��DGGLWLRQDO�FRQVLGHUDWLRQ�VKRXOG�EH�JLYHQ�WR�WKH�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�RI�KDELWDWV�DQG�WKH�SURWHFWLRQ�RI�ELRGLYHUVLW\�ZKLFK�LQFOXGHV�PRQLWRULQJ�WKH�GDPDJH�FDXVHG�E\�WKH�LPSDFWV�RI�ILVKLQJ�WR�WDUJHW�VSHFLHV��GLVFDUGV��EHQWKLF�LQIDXQD�DQG�VHGLPHQWV��+DXWRQ�HW�DO������������������ 55B7UDZOLQJ��7KH�HIIHFWV�RI�WRZHG�ILVKLQJ�JHDU�RQ�WKH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW�KDV�DWWUDFWHG�FRQVLGHUDEOH�LQWHUHVW�UHFHQWO\�ZLWK�PDQ\�VWXGLHV�H[DPLQLQJ�WKLV�LVVXH�XVLQJ�YDULRXV�DSSURDFKHV��&XUULH�DQG�3DUU\��������7XFN�HW�DO���������7KUXVK�HW�DO�����������7KH�XVH�RI�VXFK�JHDU�DIIHFWV�PXFK�PRUH�WKDQ�WKH�VSHFLHV�EHLQJ�FDXJKW��$V�WKH�JHDU�LV�GUDJJHG�DORQJ�WKH�VHD�EHG�LW�GLVWXUEV�ERWK�WKH�VHGLPHQWV�DQG�WKH�RUJDQLVPV�DQG�SODQWV�WKDW�OLYH�WKHUH��0DQ\�RI�WKH�VSHFLHV�DIIHFWHG�E\�WKH�ILVKLQJ�JHDU�KDYH�QR�FRPPHUFLDO�YDOXH�EXW�WKH\�GR�SOD\�LPSRUWDQW�HFRORJLFDO�UROHV��&RJJDQ�HW�DO����������'LUHFW�FKDQJHV�FDQ�UHVXOW�IURP�WKH�FUXVKLQJ�RI�LQGLYLGXDOV�ZKLOH�WKH�SDUWLDO�H[FDYDWLRQ�DQG�GDPDJH�RI�QHDU�VXUIDFH�GZHOOLQJ�RUJDQLVPV�FDQ�DWWUDFW�PRELOH�SUHGDWRUV�VFDYHQJHUV��,Q�WKH�PDMRULW\�RI�FDVHV��WKH�LPPHGLDWH�LPSDFWV�RQ�EHQWKLF�RUJDQLVPV�DUH�TXDQWLWDWLYH�LQ�QDWXUH�VXFK�WKDW�FKDQJHV�LQ�WKH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�YDULRXV�RUJDQLVPV�RFFXU�UDWKHU�WKDQ�WKHLU�HOLPLQDWLRQ��7UDZOLQJ�FDQ�DOVR�UHGXFH�KDELWDW�FRPSOH[LW\�E\�GDPDJLQJ�WKH�SK\VLFDO�DQG�ELRORJLFDO�VWUXFWXUHV�RI�WKH�VHD�IORRU��15&����������7KH�REYLRXV�LPSDFWV�RI�WUDZOLQJ�DUH�WKH�SK\VLFDO�HIIHFWV�RI�WKH�GRRUV�DQG�WKDW�WUDZOLQJ�UHVXOWV�LQ�D�UHGXFWLRQ�RI�WKH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�ODUJH��IUDJLOH�RUJDQLVPV�DQG�DQ�LQFUHDVH�LQ�WKH�DEXQGDQFH�RI�RSSRUWXQLVWLF�VSHFLHV��7XFN�HW�DO���������&RJJDQ�HW�DO����������7UDZO�GDPDJHG�IDXQD�SURYLGH�DQ�DUWLILFLDO�IRRG�VXEVLG\�WR�DQ�DUHD�ZKLFK��RYHU�WLPH��JHQHUDOO\�VHHPV�WR�VKLIW�WKH�VSHFLHV�FRPSRVLWLRQ�LQ�IDYRXU�RI�VFDYHQJHU�IHHGHUV��5DPVD\�HW�DO����������$�VWXG\�RQ�WKH�HIIHFWV�RI�WUDZO�GLVWXUEDQFH�ZDV�FDUULHG�RXW�LQ�DQ�XQ�ILVKHG�VHD�ORFK�RI�WKH�&O\GH��/RFK�*DUHORFK��ZKLFK�IRXQG�WKDW�PHDVXUHV�RI�GLYHUVLW\�GHFUHDVHG�ZKLOH�WKH�QXPEHU�RI�LQGLYLGXDOV�LQFUHDVHG�VXJJHVWLQJ�D�GLVSURSRUWLRQDWH�LQFUHDVH�LQ�D�IHZ�GRPLQDQW�VSHFLHV��7XFN�HW�DO����������7KH�PDLQ�VSHFLHV�WKDW�VKRZHG�D�FRQVLVWHQW�LQFUHDVH�LQ�DEXQGDQFH�LQ�DVVRFLDWLRQ�ZLWK�GLVWXUEDQFH�ZDV�WKH�FLUUDWXOLG�IDPLO\�ZKLFK�DUH�FRQVLGHUHG�WR�EH�RSSRUWXQLVWLF�LQ�QDWXUH��7XFN�HW�DO�����������7KH�SULQFLSOH�ILVKHU\�WRGD\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�D�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�DQG�DV�VKRZQ�IURP�WKH�906�GDWD��VHH�ILJXUH������QHDUO\�WKH�HQWLUH�&O\GH�LV�WDUJHWHG�E\�1HSKURSV�WUDZOHUV��,Q�WHUPV�RI�WKH�GLUHFW�HIIHFWV�RQ�1HSKURSV��WKH�SDVVDJH�RI�JURXQG�JHDU�RYHU�WKH�VHD�EHG�PD\�FORVH�RYHU�WKH�

Page 75: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

HQWUDQFH�WR�EXUURZV�RI�1HSKURSV�DQG�RWKHU�VSHFLHV��+RZHYHU��WKH�DQLPDOV�KDYH�EHHQ�REVHUYHG�WR�EH�DEOH�WR�RSHQ�WKH�EXUURZV�DJDLQ�HDVLO\�WKXV�WKH�HIIHFW�RQ�XQFDXJKW�1HSKURSV�LV�PLQLPDO��&RJJDQ�HW�DO������������������ 56B'UHGJLQJ���7KH�LPSDFWV�RI�WUDZOV�DQG�GUHGJHV�DUH�RIWHQ�WKRXJKW�WR�EH�VLPLODU�DV�WKH\�DUH�ERWK�WRZHG�DORQJ�VXUIDFH�VHGLPHQWV�ZKHUH�WKH\�DUH�OLNHO\�WR�GDPDJH�RUJDQLVPV��+RZHYHU��WKH�WRRWKHG�VFDOORS�GUHGJH��GHVLJQHG�WR�GLJ�LQWR�WKH�VHGLPHQW�PD\�EH�WKH�PRVW�GDPDJLQJ�RI�DOO�GHPHUVDO�ILVKLQJ�JHDUV�WR�EHQWKLF�FRPPXQLWLHV��-HQNLQV�HW�DO��������&ROOLH�HW�DO����������6FDOORS�GUHGJLQJ�KDV�EHHQ�IRXQG�WR�PDUNHGO\�FKDQJH�WKH�WRSRJUDSK\�RI�WKH�VHGLPHQW�E\�IODWWHQLQJ�PRXQGV�DQG�ILOOLQJ�GHSUHVVLRQV�LQ�VRIW�VHGLPHQWV�GLUHFWO\�DIWHU�WUDZOLQJ��&XUULH�DQG�3DUU\���������+RZHYHU�WKH�ORQJ�WHUP�HIIHFWV�RI�WUDZOLQJ�DQG�GUHGJLQJ�GLIIHU�JUHDWO\�ZLWK�GUHGJLQJ�DIIHFWLQJ�WKH�PRVW�YXOQHUDEOH�VSHFLHV�ZKLFK�DUH�VORZ�JURZLQJ�DQG�ORQJ�OLYHG�VXFK�DV�VSRQJHV�DQG�FRUDO���$OWKRXJK�PDQ\�VWXGLHV�KDYH�EHHQ�XQDEOH�WR�GHWHFW�WKH�ORQJ�WHUP�HIIHFWV�RI�JHDU�LPSDFW�RQ�VHGLPHQWDU\�KDELWDWV��+DOO�6SHQFHU�DQG�0RRUH���������DQ�RQJRLQJ�VFDOORS�GUHGJLQJ�VWXG\�RYHU���\HDUV�KDV�EHHQ�VKRZQ�WR�DOWHU�EHQWKLF�FRPPXQLWLHV��GULYLQJ�WKHP�IURP�RQH�VWDWH�WR�DQRWKHU�RIWHQ�FDXVLQJ�WKH�FRPPXQLW\�WR�EHFRPH�PRUH�KHWHURJHQHRXV��%UDGVKDZ�HW�DO����������+DOO�6SHQFHU�DQG�0RRUH��������VKRZHG�WKDW�VFDOORS�GUHGJLQJ�FRXOG�NLOO�DQG�EXU\�XS�WR�����RI�OLYLQJ�PDHUO��D�KDELWDW�RI�VSHFLDO�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�LQWHUHVW�LQ�(8�ZDWHUV��LQ�WKH�SDWK�RI�WKH�GUHGJH��$WODQWLF�PDHUO�EHGV�DUH�XVXDOO\�FKDUDFWHULVHG�E\�FRDUVH�VHGLPHQW��FOHDQ�ZDWHU�DQG�VLJQLILFDQW�ERWWRP�FXUUHQWV��WKXV�WHQG�WR�SURYLGH�JRRG�VFDOORS�ILVKLQJ�JURXQGV��0DFGRQDOG�HW�DO����������7KH�GLIIHUHQFH�EHWZHHQ�XQ�ILVKHG�DQG�ILVKHG�DUHDV�FRQILUPV�WKDW�PDHUO�EHGV�DUH�D�SDUWLFXODUO\�IUDJLOH�KDELWDW��0RVW�RI�WKH�&O\GH�PDHUO�JURXQGV�KDYH�EHHQ�H[WHQVLYHO\�PRGLILHG�E\�VFDOORS�GUHGJH���$�K\GUDXOLF�GUHGJH�ILVKHU\�IRU�UD]RU�FODPV��(QVLV�VS���H[LVWV�RQ�D�VPDOO�VFDOH�LQ�6FRWODQG�DOWKRXJK�LQFUHDVHG�GHPDQG�IURP�(XURSH�DQG�WKH�)DU�(DVW�KDV�OHG�WR�D�JURZWK�RI�LQWHUHVW�LQ�WKH�ILVKHU\��+DXWRQ�HW�DO����������+\GUDXOLF�GUHGJLQJ�LV�DQRWKHU�VHYHUHO\�GDPDJLQJ�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�ZKLFK�KDV�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�WR�H[SRVH�GHHS�EXUURZLQJ�ORQJ�OLYHG�ELYDOYHV��VXFK�DV�WKH�RWWHU�VKHOO��/XWUDULD�VS���ZKLFK�ZRXOG�RWKHUZLVH�UDUHO\�ILQG�LWVHOI�H[SRVHG�RQ�WKH�VHGLPHQW�VXUIDFH��+DXWRQ�HW�DO���������7KH�FDSDFLW\�RI�WKHVH�GHHS�EXUURZLQJ�VSHFLHV�WR�UHEXU\�LV�ORZ�FRPSDUHG�WR�ELYDOYHV�WKDW�OLYH�FORVHU�WR�WKH�VXUIDFH�RI�WKH�VHGLPHQW�DV�WKH\�EXU\�LQWR�WKH�VHGLPHQW�DV�MXYHQLOHV���������� 57B'LVFDUGV��$QRWKHU�VLJQLILFDQW�HIIHFW�RI�ILVKLQJ�UHVXOWV�IURP�WKH�GLVFDUGV�ZKLFK�DUH�SURGXFHG�E\�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVKLQJ�ZRUOGZLGH��'LVFDUGV�DUH�E\�FDWFK�RUJDQLVPV�ZKLFK�DUH�UHWXUQHG�WR�VHD�DV�WKH\�DUH�FRQVLGHUHG�XQGHVLUDEOH��7KLV�FDQ�EH�IRU�D�YDULHW\�RI�UHDVRQV�VXFK�DV�WKDW�WKH\�KDYH�QR�FRPPHUFLDO�YDOXH��DUH�EHORZ�PLQLPXP�ODQGLQJ�VL]H�RU�DUH�VXUSOXV�WR�TXRWD��%HUJPDQQ�HW�DO��������&DWFKSROH�HW�DO����������'LVFDUGLQJ�EHKDYLRXU�FDQ�EH�KLJKO\�YDULDEOH�DQG�GHSHQGV�RQ�FXUUHQW�OHJLVODWLRQ�DQG�PDUNHW�FRQGLWLRQV��5RFKHW�HW�DO����������7KH�UDWH�RI�GLVFDUGLQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�LV�YHU\�KLJK�DQG�WKH�SURSRUWLRQ�GLVFDUGHG�KDV�EHHQ�HVWLPDWHG�EHWZHHQ���������:LHF]RUHN�HW�DO���������HVWLPDWHG�WKDW�DSSUR[LPDWHO\����WRQQHV�RI�ELRPDVV�DUH�GLVFDUGHG�HYHU\�ZRUNLQJ�GD\�E\�1HSKURSV�WUDZOHUV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DQG�WKDW�HYHU\�\HDU�D�PLQLPXP�RI��������WRQQHV�DUH�GLVFDUGHG�LQ�WKH�DUHD���%HDP�WUDZOLQJ�UHVXOWV�LQ�WZR�IRUPV�RI�SRWHQWLDO�ELRPDVV�IRU�VFDYHQJHUV��GLVFDUGHG�E\�FDWFK�DQG�GLVWXUEHG��GDPDJHG�DQG�GHDG�EHQWKLF�LQIDXQD��*URHQHZROG�DQG�)RQGV���������0RVW�RI�WKH�GLVFDUGV�IURP�EHDP�WUDZOHUV�HQG�XS�RQ�WKH�VHD�IORRU������RI�IODWILVK������RI�

Page 76: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

LQYHUWHEUDWHV��DQG�����RI�URXQGILVK��7KH�PDMRULW\�RI�WKH�GLVFDUGHG�PDWHULDO�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�UHDFKHV�WKH�VHD�EHG�ZLWKLQ�D�IHZ�PLQXWHV�ZKHUH�LW�EHFRPHV�DYDLODEOH�WR�EHQWKLF�VFDYHQJHUV��,QYHUWHEUDWH�GLVFDUGV�IDOO�WR�WKH�VHD�EHG�UDSLGO\�ZKHUH�WKH\�DUH�UHDGLO\�FRQVXPHG�E\�PHJDIDXQDO�VFDYHQJHUV�DQG�DPSKLSRGV��%HUJPDQQ�HW�DO���������7KH�RYHUDOO�LPSDFW�RI�WKLV�LV�WKDW�GLVFDUGLQJ�VXEVLGLVHV�EHQWKLF�SRSXODWLRQV�DQG�WKH�IRRG�ZHE�LQ�JHQHUDO��E\�PDNLQJ�DYDLODEOH�IRRG�UHVRXUFHV�WKDW�ZRXOG�RWKHUZLVH�EH�XQDWWDLQDEOH�IRU�RUJDQLVPV�DW�D�SDUWLFXODU�WURSKLF�OHYHO��.DLVHU�DQG�+DGGLQN���������7KLV�FDUULRQ�FRXOG�WKHUHIRUH�DOVR�EH�VXEVLGLVLQJ�WKH�1HSKURSV�SRSXODWLRQ��+RZHYHU��WKH�H[WHQW�WR�ZKLFK�WKLV�RFFXUV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�XQNQRZQ�DV�WKHUH�LV�D�ODFN�RI�LQIRUPDWLRQ�LQ�WKH�HFRORJLFDO�HQHUJHWLFV�RI�WKH�VSHFLHV�LQYROYHG�ORFDOO\���$OWKRXJK�WKH�PDMRULW\�RI�PDWHULDO�GLVFDUGHG�VLQNV�WR�WKH�VHD�EHG�GLVFDUGV�DUH�DOVR�H[SORLWHG�DW�WKH�VHD�VXUIDFH�E\�VHDELUGV��0DQ\�VHDELUGV�HVSHFLDOO\�JXOOV�DVVRFLDWH�ZLWK�ILVKLQJ�ERDWV�DOO�DURXQG�WKH�%ULWLVK�,VOHV�DQG�GLVFDUGV�DQG�RIIDO�SURYLGH�D�ODUJH�TXDQWLW\�RI�IRRG��7KLV�DYDLODELOLW\�RI�ODUJH�DPRXQW�RI�GLVFDUGV�LV�RQH�RI�WKH�IDFWRUV�ZKLFK�PD\�KDYH�FRQWULEXWHG�WR�WKH�UDSLG�JURZWK�RI�VRPH�VHDELUG�SRSXODWLRQV��*DUWKH�HW�DO��������'XQQHW�HW�DO����������5HFHQWO\�WKHUH�KDV�EHHQ�D�FRQFHUWHG�FKDQJH�LQ�GLVFDUGLQJ�SUDFWLFH�DURXQG�6FRWODQG�ZKLFK�FRXOG�KDYH�D�VLJQLILFDQW�LPSDFW�RQ�WKH�EUHHGLQJ�SRSXODWLRQV�DORQJ�WKH�FRDVW����

���� 6XJJHVWLRQ�IRU�IXUWKHU�ZRUN��:KLOH�WKH�1HSKURSV�VWRFN�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�UHJXODUO\�VXUYH\HG��DQG�WKHUH�LV�VRPH�VXUYH\�GDWD�GHVFULELQJ�WKH�GHPHUVDO�VWRFNV��VHH�QH[W�VHFWLRQ���WKHUH�LV�QR�XS�WR�GDWH�VXUYH\�RI�WKH�KHUULQJ�VWRFN�LQ�WKH�&O\GH���,Q�RUGHU�WR�HVWLPDWH�WKH�FXUUHQW�DEXQGDQFH�DQG�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�KHUULQJ�DQG�VSUDW�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��D�ILVKHULHV�DFRXVWLF�VXUYH\�VKRXOG�EH�FRQGXFWHG��XVLQJ�D�PXOWL�IUHTXHQF\�VFLHQWLILF�HFKRVRXQGHU�DQG�D�SHODJLF�WUDZO�IRU�YDOLGDWLRQ��7KH�VXUYH\�VKRXOG�LQFOXGH�DOO�DUHDV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��DV�FORVH�LQVKRUH�DV�LV�SRVVLEOH�WR�QDYLJDWH�WKH�VXUYH\�YHVVHO��DQG�LQFOXGH�WKH�PDMRU�ORFK�DUHDV��.\OHV�RI�%XWH��/RFK�)\QH��/RFK�6WULYHQ��/RFK�5\DQ��DQG�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\��WR�3RUW�*ODVJRZ���7KLV�VXUYH\�VKRXOG�UHVXOW�LQ�HVWLPDWHV�RI�DEXQGDQFH�DW�DJH�IRU�KHUULQJ�DQG�VSUDW��DQG�PDSV�RI�WKHLU�GLVWULEXWLRQ���

Page 77: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

���� 6B�7+(�&855(17�67$786�2)�7+(�&/<'(�'(0(56$/�),6+�&20081,7<��7KH�VWXG\�E\�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV�������±�IRU�WKH�UHPDLQGHU�RI�WKLV�VHFWLRQ�WKLV�SDSHU�ZLOO�EH�UHIHUUHG�WR�DV�+6������SURYLGHV�WKH�PRVW�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�DQDO\VLV�RI�WKH�VWDWH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\�FXUUHQWO\�DYDLODEOH��7KLV�VHFWLRQ�SUHVHQWV�WKH�UHVXOWV�RI�+6�����LQ�VRPH�GHWDLO�DV�WKH�UHVXOWV�RI�WKLV�VWXG\�DUH�FHQWUDOO\�UHOHYDQW�WR�DGGUHVVLQJ�VRPH�RI�WKH�FRQFHUQV�UDLVHG�E\�7KXUVWRQ�DQG�5REHUWV����������

���� 6XPPDU\�RI�'HPHUVDO�&O\GH�/DQGLQJV��)LJXUH�����VXPPDULVHV�WKH�ODQGLQJV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�IURP�WKH�&O\GH��GHVFULEHG�LQ�GHWDLO�LQ�WKH�SUHYLRXV�VHFWLRQ���

([FO���QP ,QFO���QP([FO���QP ,QFO���QP

�)LJXUH�����6XPPDU\�RI�ODQGLQJV��WRQQHV��RI�VL[�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VSHFLHV�IURP�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��,&(6�6WDW�5HFWDQJOHV���(������(������(������(���6RXUFH��066���<HDUV�ZKHQ�WKH�&O\GH�RSHQHG�WR�WUDZOLQJ��H[FOXGLQJ�WKH�DUHD�ZLWKLQ���QP�IURP�WKH�FRDVW���������DQG�LQFOXGLQJ�ZLWKLQ���QP��������DUH�KLJKOLJKWHG��/DQGLQJV�RI�1HSKURSV�DUH�DOVR�VKRZQ��EODFN�OLQH���

�7KH�GHFOLQH�LQ�ODQGLQJV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�LV�FOHDU��+6�����GHVFULEH�WKH�IROORZLQJ�PLOHVWRQHV�LQ�WKH�GHYHORSPHQW�RI�WKH�ILVKLQJ�LPSDFW�RQ�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VWRFNV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��

Page 78: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

������ (QWLUH�)LUWK�� &ORVHG�WR�WUDZOHUV�

�!��WRQQHV��7R� SURWHFW� LQVKRUH� ILVKLQJ�JURXQGV�DQG�KHUULQJ�

����� )LUWK�RXWVLGH���QP�OLPLW�� 2SHQHG�WR�WUDZOHUV� )LVK� ODQGLQJV� ULVH� WR� ������WKHQ�VWDUW�WR�GHFOLQH�

����� )LUWK�LQVLGH���QP�OLPLW� 2SHQHG�WR�WUDZOHUV� 7R�NHHS�XS�ILVK�ODQGLQJV��7R�H[SORLW�LQVKRUH�1HSKURSV�JURXQGV�

����� 3DUWV�RI�&O\GH��VHH�)LJXUH������

6HDVRQDO�FORVXUHV� 7R�SURWHFW�VSDZQLQJ�FRG��

����¶V� � � )LVKLQJ� WDUJHWLQJ� GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VWRSV�DV�XQHFRQRPLF��)LVK� ODQGLQJV� RQO\� IURP�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�E\�FDWFK�

�,W�LV�FOHDU�IURP�)LJXUH�����WKDW��IROORZLQJ�WKH�RSHQLQJ�RI�WKH�&O\GH�WR�WUDZOHUV�LQ�������ODQGLQJV�URVH�WRZDUGV�D�PD[LPXP�LQ�WKH�HDUO\�����V��DQG�WKHQ�KDYH�VXEVHTXHQWO\�FUDVKHG��7KH�UHPRYDO�RI�WKH��QP�OLPLW�LQ������UHVXOWHG�LQ�WKH�ODQGLQJV�ULVLQJ�VOLJKWO\�IRU�RQH�\HDU��EHIRUH�WKH�VWHHS�GHFOLQH�FRQWLQXHG���1HSKURSV�ODQGLQJV��LQ�FRQWUDVW��KDYH�VWHDGLO\�ULVHQ�VLQFH�WKH�PLG�����V���)URP�ODQGLQJV�GDWD�DORQH�LW�ZRXOG�VHHP�WKDW�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�KDYH�GLVDSSHDUHG�IURP�WKH�&O\GH��WR�EH�UHSODFHG�E\�1HSKURSV��+RZHYHU��WKLV�LV�IDU�IURP�WKH�DFWXDO�WUXH�SLFWXUH�RI�WKH�KHDOWK�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�HFRV\VWHP���

���� $�&OLPDWLF�(IIHFW�"��%HIRUH�PRYLQJ�RQWR�KRZ�+6�����KDYH�GHYHORSHG�D�PXFK�PRUH�DFFXUDWH�SLFWXUH�RI�WKH�FXUUHQW�VWDWXV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��LW�LV�ZRUWK�RQH�ILQDO�FRQVLGHUDWLRQ�RI�WKH�RYHUDOO�SLFWXUH�REWDLQHG�IURP�WKH�ODQGLQJV�GDWD���,W�PLJKW�EH�DUJXHG�WKDW�)LJXUH�����UHIOHFWV�WKH�UHVXOWV�RI�FOLPDWH�FKDQJH�UDWKHU�WKDQ�ILVKLQJ��)LJXUH�����VKRZV�WKH�DYHUDJH�DQQXDO�WHPSHUDWXUH�GHULYHG�IURP�ZHHNO\�PHDVXUHPHQWV�SHUIRUPHG�DW�0LOOSRUW��&XPEUDH��LQ�WKH�&O\GH��FRPSDUHG�WR�WKH�GDWD�SUHVHQWHG�LQ�)LJXUH�������$�VLPSOLVWLF�DUJXPHQW�PLJKW�VWDWH�WKDW�LQ�WKH�����V�DQG�����V�ZDWHUV�ZHUH�FRROHU�WKDQ�QRZ��DQG�ODQGLQJV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�ZHUH�KLJK��1RZ�WKDW�ZDWHUV�KDYH�ZDUPHG��GHPHUVDO�ILVK�DEXQGDQFHV�KDYH�GHFOLQHG�UHVXOWLQJ�LQ�ORZHU�FDWFKHV��:H�ZLOO�VHH�IURP�WKH�DQDO\VLV�RI�+6�����WKDW�WKLV�LV�QRW�WKH�FDVH��+RZHYHU��HYHQ�D�FRPSDULVRQ�RI�WHPSHUDWXUH�DQG�ODQGLQJV�DV�SUHVHQWHG�LQ�)LJXUH�����FDQ�VKRZ�WKDW��ZKHQ�WKH�GHWDLO�LV�H[DPLQHG�UDWKHU�WKDQ�WKH�RYHUDOO�WUHQGV��WKHUH�LV�PXFK�GLVSDULW\�IURP�WKH�VLPSOH�LGHD�WKDW�ZDUP�ZDWHUV�PHDQ�OHVV�GHPHUVDO�ILVK��DV�ZDUP�SHULRGV��H�J�������������FDQ�KDYH�JRRG�ODQGLQJV��DQG�FRRO�\HDUV��H�J�������������SRRU�ODQGLQJV���,W�LV�TXLWH�FOHDU�WKDW�RYHUILVKLQJ�KDV�OHG�WR�WKH�GHFOLQH�LQ�ILVK�ODQGLQJV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��+RZHYHU��ODQGLQJV�GDWD�DORQH�FDQ�QRW�JLYH�WKH�WUXH�SLFWXUH�RI�WKH�KHDOWK�RI�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLWLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��DV�ZH�ZLOO�VHH�LQ�WKH�IROORZLQJ�VHFWLRQV��

Page 79: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����6XPPDU\�RI�ODQGLQJV��WRQQHV��RI�VL[�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VSHFLHV�IURP�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��,&(6�6WDW�5HFWDQJOHV���(������(������(������(���6RXUFH��066��FRPSDUHG�WR�DQQXDO�DYHUDJH�WHPSHUDWXUH�DW�0LOOSRUW��&XPEUDH��WKLFN�EODFN�OLQH��/LQHDU�UHJUHVVLRQ�±�WKLQ�EODFN�OLQH���

���� /LPLWDWLRQV�RI�/DQGLQJV�'DWD���+6�����QRWHG�WKDW�WKH�XVH�RI�ODQGLQJV�GDWD�DORQH�LV�IUDXJKW�ZLWK�GLIILFXOW\��/DQGLQJV�RI�D�SDUWLFXODU�VSHFLHV�FDQ�EH�DIIHFWHG�E\�D�GLYHUVH�PXOWLWXGH�RI�IDFWRUV��LQFOXGLQJ���� ��WKH�DPRXQW�RI�WKH�FDWFK�RI�D�VSHFLHV�WKDW�LV�QRW�ODQGHG��GLVFDUGV��� ��PDUNHW�GHPDQG�IRU�WKDW�VSHFLHV�� ��H[LVWLQJ�OHJLVODWLYH�FRQWUROV�LQFOXGLQJ�TXRWDV�DQG�HIIRUW�UHVWULFWLRQV�� ��UHVWULFWHG�DFFHVV�WR�WKH�ILVKHU\�IRU�WKH�VSHFLHV�RZLQJ�WR�ZHDWKHU�� ��ILVKLQJ�IOHHW�GHFLVLRQV�EDVHG�RQ�IXHO�SULFH�� ��ILVKLQJ�IOHHW�GHFLVLRQV�EDVHG�RQ�VNLSSHU�SUHIHUHQFHV�DQG�FXUUHQW�WUHQGV�� ��GHFRPPLVVLRQLQJ�VFKHPHV�UHGXFLQJ�HIIRUW�WDUJHWLQJ�WKDW�VSHFLHV�� ��E\�FDWFK�RI�WKH�VSHFLHV�LQ�RWKHU�ILVKHULHV��)RU�WKLV�UHDVRQ��DQDO\VHV�DV�SUHVHQWHG�DERYH�DQG�WKH�DQDO\VLV�RI�7KXUVWRQ�DQG�5REHUWV��������DQG�LW¶V�FRQFOXVLRQV�UHTXLUH�VLJQLILFDQW�FDYHDWV�DSSOLHG��7KH�GLIILFXOWLHV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�XVLQJ�ODQGLQJV�GDWD�UHVXOWHG�LQ�+6�����IRFXVVLQJ�RQ�UHVHDUFK�YHVVHO�VXUYH\�GDWD���

���� 5HVHDUFK�9HVVHO�6XUYH\�'DWD��6LQFH�HDUO\�LQ�WKH���WK�FHQWXU\��WKH�6FRWWLVK�*RYHUQPHQW��WKURXJK�LWV�0DULQH�/DERUDWRU\�LQ�$EHUGHHQ��KDYH�FRQGXFWHG�WUDZO�VXUYH\V�RI�WKH�&O\GH�IDLUO\�FRQVLVWHQWO\�RQ�DQ�DQQXDO�EDVLV��+RZHYHU��LW�LV�RQO\�VLQFH������WKDW�VWDQGDUGLVHG�VXUYH\�PHWKRGV�KDYH�EHHQ�XVHG��������� &RQVWUXFWLQJ�WKH�7LPH�6HULHV��

Page 80: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

+6�����WRRN�D�VWDWLVWLFDO�DSSURDFK�LQ�RUGHU�WR�UHFRQVWUXFW�WLPH�VHULHV�GHVFULELQJ�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\�EDFN�XQWLO�������7KHLU�³JROG�VWDQGDUG´�GDWD�VHW�ZDV�WKH�VWDQGDUGLVHG�VXUYH\�GDWD�FRRUGLQDWHG�E\�WKH�,QWHUQDWLRQDO�&RXQFLO�IRU�WKH�([SORUDWLRQ�RI�WKH�6HD��,&(6��DQG�FRQGXFWHG�E\�066�DIWHU�������7KHVH�VXUYH\V�XVHG�D�QHW�GHVLJQ�FDOOHG�WKH�*UDQGH�2YHUWXUH�9HUWLFDOH��*29��QHW��7KLV�GHVLJQ��EDVHG�RQ�FRPPHUFLDO�JHDU�DW�WKDW�WLPH��LV�FRQVLGHUHG�WR�EH�HIILFLHQW�DW�FDWFKLQJ�D�ZLGH�UDQJH�RI�ILVK�VL]HV�DQG�VSHFLHV��$OWKRXJK�LW�LV�QRW�DV�HIILFLHQW�DV�PRGHUQ�GHPHUVDO�JHDU�DW�FDWFKLQJ�VSHFLILF�VSHFLHV�RU�VL]HV��LW�LV�QRW�PHDQW�WR�EH��,W¶V�DLP�LV�WR�FROOHFW�D�UHSUHVHQWDWLYH�VDPSOH�RI�DOO�WKH�ILVK�SUHVHQW�LQ�DQ�DUHD�XVLQJ�D�VWDQGDUG�PHWKRG�WKDW�GRHV�QRW�DOWHU�RQH�\HDU�WR�WKH�QH[W��7KXV��WLPH�VHULHV�HVWDEOLVKHG�XVLQJ�WKH�*29�DUH�FRPSDUDEOH�\HDU�RQ�\HDU��DQG�WKH�GDWD�FDQ�EH�XVHG�DV�D�WLPH�VHULHV��6WDWLRQV�VDPSOHG�XVLQJ�WKH�*29�JHDU�DIWHU������DUH�VKRZQ�DV�UHG�V\PEROV�LQ�)LJXUH�������$OWKRXJK�WKH�VWDQGDUG�VXUYH\V�XVLQJ�WKH�*29�QHW�FRPPHQFHG�LQ�������066�DQG�LW¶V�SUHGHFHVVRUV�KDYH�FRQGXFWHG�GHPHUVDO�WUDZO�VXUYH\V�VLQFH�WKH�HDUO\�SDUW�RI�WKH���WK�FHQWXU\��,Q�RUGHU�WR�H[WHQG�WKH�WLPH�VHULHV�EDFN�HDUOLHU�WKDQ�������+6�����XVHG�RWKHU�VXUYH\�GDWD�FROOHFWHG�E\�066�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��VHOHFWLQJ�WUDZO�VWDWLRQV�WKDW�OD\�ZLWKLQ�FORVH�SUR[LPLW\�WR�WKH�SRVW������*29�VWDWLRQV��L�H��WUDZOV�WKDW�OD\�ZLWKLQ�WKH�UHG�VTXDUHV�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUH������DQG�ZKLFK�XVHG�VLPLODU�ILVKLQJ�JHDU��+6�����SHUIRUPHG�D�UDQJH�RI�WHVWV�WR�HQVXUH�WKDW�WKH�GDWD�ZDV�FRPSDUDEOH�DQG�RI�VXIILFLHQW�TXDOLW\���������� 7KH�%DVLF�)LVK�'DWD��)RU�HDFK�KDXO�SHUIRUPHG�GXULQJ�WKH�VXUYH\V�+6�����XVHG��DOO�ILVK�VSHFLHV�ZHUH�LGHQWLILHG�DQG�UHFRUGHG��,Q�DGGLWLRQ�WR�WKH�VSHFLHV�QDPH��WKH�OHQJWK�RI�HDFK�ILVK�RI�WKDW�VSHFLHV�ZDV�PHDVXUHG��RU�D�VXE�VHW�RI�ILVK�PHDVXUHG�DQG�VWDWLVWLFDOO\�UDLVHG�WR�WKH�QXPEHU�RI�WKDW�VSHFLHV�FDXJKW��+HQFH��WKH�EDVLF�GDWD�+6�����XVHG�ZDV�WKH�QXPEHUV�RI�HDFK�VSHFLHV�FDXJKW�ZLWKLQ��FP�OHQJWK�FDWHJRULHV���2WKHU�HVWLPDWHV�+6�����XVHG�LQ�RUGHU�WR�GHULYH�WKHLU�VWDWLVWLFV�ZHUH�WKH�DUHD�HDFK�QHW�XVHG�LQ�WKH�VXUYH\V�VZHSW��VLQFH������WKLV�KDV�EHHQ�GLUHFWO\�PHDVXUHG�XVLQJ�DFRXVWLF�LQVWUXPHQWV�SULRU�WR������HVWLPDWHV�ZHUH�PDGH�±�VHH�+6�����IRU�GHWDLOV��DQG�D�FRQYHUVLRQ�EHWZHHQ�ILVK�OHQJWK�DQG�ILVK�ZHLJKW��IURP�VWDQGDUG�PHDVXUHPHQW�IRU�HDFK�VSHFLHV����,Q�WKH�HQG��+6�����XVHG�GDWD�IURP�����KDXOV�FROOHFWHG�GXULQJ�WKH����\HDU�SHULRG�EHWZHHQ������DQG�������7KHVH�KDXOV�SURGXFHG�QHDUO\��������VHWV�RI�VSHFLHV�OHQJWK�FODVV�UHFRUGV��,Q�DOO�����GLIIHUHQW�VSHFLHV��WD[D��ZHUH�LGHQWLILHG�LQ�VXUYH\�WUDZOV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�RYHU�WKH�UHFRUGHG�SHULRG�����RI�ZKLFK�ZHUH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VSHFLHV��VHH�$QQH[�IRU�IXOO�VSHFLHV�OLVW���7KLV�FRPSDUHV�WR�YDOXHV�RI����DQG����GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�6HD�RI�WKH�+HEULGHV�DQG�WKH�,ULVK�6HD�UHVSHFWLYHO\��7KLV�RI�FRXUVH�GRHV�QRW�UHIOHFW�WKH�WRWDO�QXPEHU�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��MXVW�WKRVH�WKDW�DUH�IRXQG�RIIVKRUH�DQG�FDQ�EH�FDXJKW�E\�WKH�VXUYH\�JHDU��+RZHYHU��LW�GRHV�LQFOXGH�DOO�VSHFLHV�WKDW�ZLOO�EH�DIIHFWHG�E\�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVKLQJ���6WDWLVWLFV��,Q�WKH�IROORZLQJ�VHFWLRQV��D�VHOHFWLRQ�RI�WKH�UHVXOWV�SUHVHQWHG�E\�+6�����KDV�EHHQ�XVHG�LQ�RUGHU�WR�LOOXVWUDWH�VRPH�NH\�ILQGLQJV��7KH�UHDGHU�LV�HQFRXUDJHG�WR�VWXG\�WKH�IXOO�UHVXOWV�LQ�RUGHU�WR�REWDLQ�WKH�FRPSOHWH�SLFWXUH�DV�SUHVHQWHG�E\�WKH�DXWKRUV��ZKR�DOVR�GHDO�ZLWK�WKH�XQFHUWDLQWLHV�LQYROYHG�LQ�WKHLU�VWXG\��7KH\�XVH�FRPSOH[�LQGLFDWRUV�RI�VSHFLHV�DEXQGDQFH��ULFKQHVV��HYHQQHVV�DQG�VL]H��9DOXHV�RI�WKHVH�LQGLFDWRUV�RI�WKH�KHDOWK�DQG�VWDWXV�RI�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\�YDU\�IURP�VXUYH\�WR�VXUYH\��,Q�RUGHU�WR�ORRN�DW�LQWHU�DQQXDO�WUHQGV��+6�����ILW�VWDWLVWLFDO�PRGHOV�WR�WKH�GDWD��HVSHFLDOO\�D�ORHVV�VPRRWKHU�PRGHO��)RU�VLPSOLFLW\��LQ�WKH�VHFWLRQV�EHORZ�WKLV�LV�UHIHUUHG�WR�DV�³DYHUDJH´�UHVXOWV���

Page 81: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����0DS�VKRZLQJ�WKH�ORFDWLRQ�RI�WUDZO�VDPSOLQJ�ORFDWLRQV�XVHG�LQ�WKH�DQDO\VLV�RI�+6������$OVR�VKRZQ�DUH�,&(6�VWDWLVWLFDO�UHFWDQJOHV��GDVKHG�OLQHV��WKH\�XVHG�WR�REWDLQ�ODQGLQJV�DQG�GLVFDUG�GDWD��5HG�V\PEROV�LQGLFDWH�WKH�ORFDWLRQV�RI�UHVHDUFK�VXUYH\�YHVVHO�WUDZO�WRZV�SHUIRUPHG�E\�0DULQH�6FRWODQG�6FLHQFH�XVLQJ�D�VWDQGDUG�VXUYH\�JHDU��WKH�*29�QHW��DIWHU�������7KH�WKUHH�UHG�UHFWDQJXODU�FHOOV�VKRZ�WKH�VXE�DUHDV�XVHG�WR�VHOHFW�RWKHU�WUDZO�VWDWLRQV��EOXH�V\PEROV��ZKHUH�GDWD�ZDV�REWDLQHG�XVLQJ�QRQ�VWDQGDUG�ILVKLQJ�JHDU��

������� 'HPHUVDO�)LVK�±�&KDQJHV�LQ�%LRPDVV��)LJXUH�����VKRZV�WKH�DYHUDJH�DEXQGDQFH��ELRPDVV��RI�WKH�FRPPHUFLDO�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VSHFLHV��VXP�RI�FRG��KDGGRFN��ZKLWLQJ��KDNH��VDLWKH�DQG�SODLFH��LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�FDOFXODWHG�XVLQJ�UHVHDUFK�YHVVHO�VXUYH\�GDWD��IURP�+6������7KH�GDWD�LV�SUHVHQWHG�DV�WKH�ZHLJKW��WRQQHV��RI�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LQ�DQ�DYHUDJH�\HDU�ZLWKLQ�WKH�VWDWHG�GHFDGHV��7KH�GDWD�LV�VXE�GLYLGHG�EHWZHHQ�ILVK�WKDW�DUH�VPDOOHU�WKDQ�WKH�0LQLPXP�/DQGLQJ�6L]H��0/6��DQG�ODUJHU�WKDQ�WKH�0/6��1RWH�WKDW�HDFK�VSHFLHV�PDNLQJ�XS�WKH�VL[�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�KDV�D�VSHFLHV�VSHFLILF�0/6�ZKLFK�LV�XVHG�LQ�WKH�FDOFXODWLRQ�RI�WKH�³JUHDWHU�WKDQ´�DQG�³OHVV�WKDQ´�0/6�SHUFHQWDJHV��$OVR�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUH�����DUH�WKH�GHFDGDO�DYHUDJH�ODQGLQJV�IRU������RQZDUGV��

��

Page 82: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����$YHUDJH�DEXQGDQFH��ELRPDVV��RI�FRPPHUFLDO�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VSHFLHV��VXP�RI�FRG��KDGGRFN��ZKLWLQJ��KDNH��VDLWKH�DQG�SODLFH��LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�FDOFXODWHG�XVLQJ�UHVHDUFK�YHVVHO�VXUYH\�GDWD��IURP�+6������7KH�GDWD�LV�SUHVHQWHG�DV�WKH�ZHLJKW��WRQQHV��RI�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LQ�DQ�DYHUDJH�\HDU�ZLWKLQ�WKH�VWDWHG�GHFDGHV��7KH�GDWD�LV�VXE�GLYLGHG�EHWZHHQ�ILVK�WKDW�DUH�VPDOOHU�WKDQ�WKH�0LQLPXP�/DQGLQJ�6L]H��0/6��DQG�ODUJHU�WKDQ�WKH�0/6���1RWH��'DWD�KDV�EHHQ�H[WUDFWHG�IURP�+6�����)LJXUH���IRU��0/6�DQG�!0/6�ORHVV�VPRRWKLQJ�IXQFWLRQV��UDLVHG�WR�WKH�DUHD�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��L�H�������NP���DQG�DYHUDJHG�RYHU�UHOHYDQW�GHFDGHV���$OVR�VKRZQ�LV�WKH�GHFDGDO�DYHUDJH�ODQGLQJV�IRU������RQZDUGV��

�7KH�SULQFLSDO�DVSHFWV�RI�)LJXUH�����WR�QRWH�DUH�����ODQGLQJV�LQ�WKH�GHFDGH�����������DSSHDU�WR�KDYH�EHHQ�����RI�WKH�WRWDO�ELRPDVV��7KLV�SHUFHQWDJH�EHFDPH�����LQ�WKH�GHFDGH����������������LQ����������������LQ�����������DQG����LQ���������������WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LQ�WKH�GHFDGHV�����������DQG�����������ZDV�RYHU������WRQQHV��7KLV�LV�DSSUR[LPDWHO\�WZLFH�WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�ILVK�LQ�WKH�GHFDGH������������a�����WRQQHV��DQG�DSSUR[LPDWHO\�IRXU�WLPHV�WKH�ELRPDVV�LQ�WKH�GHFDGH������������a�����WRQQHV������LQ�WKH�GHFDGHV�����������DQG������������ILVK�VPDOOHU�WKDQ�WKH�PLQLPXP�ODQGLQJV�VL]H�PDGH�XS�RQ�DYHUDJH�����RI�WKH�WRWDO�ELRPDVV��ZKHUHDV�LQ�WKH�GHFDGHV�����������DQG������������ILVK�VPDOOHU�WKDQ�WKH�PLQLPXP�ODQGLQJ�VL]H�PDGH�XS�RQ�DYHUDJH�����RI�WKH�ELRPDVV���7KH�ILUVW�REVHUYDWLRQ�WKURZV�XS�VRPH�GLIILFXOWLHV��,W�LV�QRW�SRVVLEOH�WKDW�D�KDUYHVW�UDWLR�RI�����FDQ�EH�VXVWDLQHG�IRU�D�GHFDGH�ZLWKRXW�GHPHUVDO�VWRFNV�EHLQJ�FRPSOHWHO\�HUDGLFDWHG�IURP�WKH�&O\GH��7KLV�VXJJHVWV�WKDW�WKHUH�LV�D�VFDOLQJ�IDFWRU�UHTXLUHG�EHWZHHQ�WKH�HVWLPDWHG�WRWDO�ELRPDVV�DQG�WKH�ODQGLQJV�GDWD��/DQGLQJV�GDWD�DUH�IURP�RIILFLDO�HVWLPDWHV�GHULYHG�IURP�PDUNHW�VDPSOLQJ�DQG�ORJ�ERRN�UHFRUGV��7KH�ELRPDVV�LV�IURP�+6�����XVLQJ�FDOFXODWLRQV�LQYROYLQJ�WKH�VZHSW�DUHD�RI�VXUYH\�QHWV��WKH�FDWFK�SHU�XQLW�WLPH�RI�D�VXUYH\�QHW��DQG�WKH�FDWFKDELOLW\�RI�D�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�VXUYH\�QHW��ZLWK�WKH�ILQDO�HVWLPDWHG�YDOXHV�RI�ILVK�GHQVLW\�

Page 83: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

UDLVHG�WR�WKH�DUHD�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��7KXV�WKHUH�PD\�ZHOO�EH�VFDOLQJ�LVVXHV�ZLWK�WKH�HVWLPDWLRQ�RI�WRWDO�ELRPDVV��7KH�HVWLPDWHV�DUH�XQGRXEWHGO\�WRR�ORZ��+RZHYHU��LW�PD\�EH�DVVXPHG�WKDW�WKLV�VFDOLQJ�IDFWRU�DSSOLHV�HTXDOO\�WR�DOO�\HDUV��WKXV�FRPSDULVRQV�EHWZHHQ�GHFDGHV�RI�HVWLPDWHG�ELRPDVV�UHPDLQV�YDOLG���,W�LV�TXLWH�FOHDU�IURP�WKH�)LJXUH�����WKDW��GHVSLWH�WKH�VFDOLQJ�LVVXH��WKHUH�ZDV�H[WUHPHO\�KHDY\�H[SORLWDWLRQ�RI�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�VWRFNV�LQ�WKH�GHFDGHV����������������������DQG�������������:KDW�LV�DOVR�FOHDU�LV�WKDW��GHVSLWH�WKH�LQWHQVH�ILVKLQJ�SUHVVXUH�RQ�GHPHUVDO�VWRFNV�WKDW�WRRN�SODFH�LQ�WKRVH�GHFDGHV��WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�ERXQFHG�EDFN�DQG�LQ�IDFW�EHFDPH�JUHDWHU�WKDQ�LQ�WKH�GHFDGHV�ZKHQ�ILVKLQJ�SUHVVXUH�ZDV�PXFK�ORZHU��SULRU�WR�WKH�����V���$OWKRXJK�WKH�WRWDO�ELRPDVV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�UHFRYHUHG��WKH�VL]H�RI�LQGLYLGXDO�ILVK�ZDV�PXFK�FKDQJHG�LQ�UHFHQW�GHFDGHV�FRPSDUHG�WR�SUHYLRXV�GHFDGHV��:KLOH�WKHUH�ZDV�D�UHFRYHUHG�ELRPDVV��LW�ZDV�SUHGRPLQDQWO\�VPDOO�ILVK��ZLWK�!����EHLQJ�VPDOOHU�WKDQ�WKH�PLQLPXP�ODQGLQJ�VL]H���,Q�WHUPV�RI�VSHFLHV��!����RI�WKH�VPDOO�ILVK�ZDV�ZKLWLQJ��VHH�6HFWLRQ�������EHORZ�����,Q�WHUPV�RI�DJH��)LJXUH�����VKRZV�WKDW�WKH�VPDOO�ZKLWLQJ�KDYH�EHHQ�SUHGRPLQDQWO\���\HDU�ROGV�DW�OHDVW�VLQFH�WKH�ODWH�����V���7KHVH�REVHUYDWLRQV�PXVW�LPSO\�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�LV�LQGHHG�SURGXFWLYH��3ULPDU\�SURGXFWLRQ�LQ�WKH�IRUP�RI�SK\WRSODQNWRQ�JURZWK��DQG�VHFRQGDU\�SURGXFWLRQ�LQ�WKH�IRUP�RI�]RRSODQNWRQ�JURZWK�HDFK�\HDU�VXSSRUWV�D�ODUJH�ELRPDVV�RI�\RXQJ����\HDU�ROG�ZKLWLQJ�����

)LJXUH�����$JH�RI�ZKLWLQJ�FDXJKW�LQ�UHVHDUFK�YHVVHO�VXUYH\�WUDZOV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��)URP�WKH�6FRWWLVK�*URXQGILVK�6XUYH\�4XDUWHU����0DULQH�6FRWODQG�6FLHQFH��8QLWV�DUH�D�VWDQGDUGLVHG�LQGH[��

�$�YDOLG�TXHVWLRQ�LV�ZKHUH�DUH�WKH�VSDZQHUV"�:KDW�ILVK�DUH�UHSURGXFLQJ�DQG�SURGXFLQJ�HDFK�\HDU�DQ�LQIOX[�RI�QHZ���\HDU�ROGV"���7KHUH�DUH�QR�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�DQVZHUV�WR�WKHVH�TXHVWLRQV��:KLWLQJ�FDQ�VH[XDOO\�PDWXUH�DW�DJH����DOWKRXJK�QR�PDWXULW\�GDWD�KDV�\HW�EHHQ�H[DPLQHG�IRU�&O\GH�ZKLWLQJ��7KH�VXUYH\V�WKDW�

Page 84: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����LV�GUDZQ�IURP�PD\�KDYH�PLVVHG�WKH�VSDZQLQJ�ROGHU�ILVK��7KH\�PD\�EH�LQ�WKH�DUHDV�WKH�VXUYH\�GLG�QRW�FRYHU��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�XSSHU�)LUWK��WKH�VHD�ORFKV�DQG�WKH�FRDVWDO�]RQH��$Q�DOWHUQDWLYH�PD\�EH�WKDW�WKH�VSDZQLQJ�SRSXODWLRQ�LV�QRW�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH�DW�DOO��DQG�WKH�SRSXODWLRQ�RI�VPDOO�ZKLWLQJ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�FUHDWHG�E\�UHFUXLWPHQW�IURP�D�GLVWDQW�VSDZQLQJ�SRSXODWLRQ��DOWKRXJK�WKLV�LV�WKRXJKW�WR�EH�XQOLNHO\��,Q�RUGHU�WR�ILQG�WKH�DQVZHU�WR�WKHVH�TXHVWLRQV��D�VXUYH\�RI�VPDOO�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�QHHGHG��IRFXVVLQJ�RQ�VH[XDO�PDWXULW\���$QRWKHU�YDOLG�TXHVWLRQ�LV��ZKDW�KDSSHQV�WR�WKH�ROGHU�ILVK"�$JDLQ�QR�FRQFOXVLYH�DQVZHUV�DUH�DYDLODEOH��+RZHYHU��)LJXUHV�����DQG�����SURYLGH�VRPH�FOXHV���

)LJXUH�����1XPEHUV�RI�ZKLWLQJ�GLVFDUGHG�IURP�WKH�&O\GH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\��E\�DJH��1XPEHUV�DUH�GLVFDUGHG�ILVK�SHU�REVHUYHG�ILVKLQJ�WULS��GHULYHG�IURP�WKH�066�REVHUYHU�SURJUDPPH��

��

)LJXUH�����:HLJKW�RI��ZKLWLQJ�GLVFDUGHG�SHU�WRQQH�RI�1HSKURSV�ODQGHG�IRU�HYHU\�REVHUYHG�WULS�VLQFH�������'DWD�LV�IURP�WKH�066�REVHUYHU�SURJUDPPH��

Page 85: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����UHYHDOV�WKDW�WKHUH�KDYH�EHHQ�VLJQLILFDQW�GLVFDUGV�RI�ZKLWLQJ�IURP�WKH�75��1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\��8S�XQWLO�������SUH�UHFUXLW��DJH����ZKLWLQJ�ZHUH�FDXJKW�DQG�GLVFDUGHG��7KH�DEVHQFH�RI�DJH���ZKLWLQJ�LQ�WKH�GLVFDUGV�DIWHU������PD\�EH�UHODWHG�WR�WKH�LQFUHDVH�LQ�FRG�HQG�PHVK�VL]H�IURP����PP�WR���PP�WKDW�RFFXUUHG�DW�WKH�VWDUW�RI��������$OVR�LQ�VRPH�\HDUV��H�J��������VLJQLILFDQW�QXPEHUV�RI���\HDU�ROG�ILVK�ZHUH�FDXJKW�DQG�GLVFDUGHG��7KHUH�LV�HYLGHQFH�RI�HYHQ�ROGHU�ILVK����DQG���\HDUV�ROG�EHLQJ�LQFOXGHG�LQ�WKH�GLVFDUGV��DOWKRXJK�QXPEHUV�DUH�VPDOO���)LJXUH�����VKRZV�WKH�DPRXQW�RI�ZKLWLQJ�GLVFDUGV�LQ�UHODWLRQ�WR�WKH�DPRXQW�RI�1HSKURSV�ODQGHG�E\�DQ�LQGLYLGXDO�ILVKLQJ�WULS�E\�D�1HSKURSV�YHVVHO��7KH�DYHUDJH�GLVFDUG�UDWH�RYHU�WKH�SHULRG������WR������LV�����NJ�RI�ZKLWLQJ�GLVFDUGHG�IRU�HYHU\�WRQQH�RI�1HSKURSV�ODQGHG��DOWKRXJK�LQGLYLGXDO�WULSV�KDYH�PXFK�KLJKHU�YDOXHV���,Q������WKH�ODQGLQJV�RI�1HSKURSV�IURP�WKH�&O\GH�ZDV������WRQQHV��8VLQJ�WKH�DYHUDJH�YDOXH�RI�����NJ�RI�ZKLWLQJ�GLVFDUGHG�SHU�WRQQH�RI�1HSKURSV�ODQGHG��WKLV�LPSOLHV�WKDW�LQ������������WRQQHV�RI�ZKLWLQJ�ZHUH�GLVFDUGHG�IURP�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\��,Q�������WKH�HVWLPDWH�RI�WKH�WRWDO�ELRPDVV�RI�ZKLWLQJ�LV�������WRQQHV��+HQFH�WKH�E\�FDWFK�RI�ZKLWLQJ�LQ�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�H[HUWHG�D�ILVKLQJ�SUHVVXUH�ZLWK�D�KDUYHVW�UDWLR�RI������L�H������RI�WKH�ZKLWLQJ�ELRPDVV�LV�GLVFDUGHG�LQ�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�HDFK�\HDU���7KLV�LV�YHU\�VLPLODU�WR�WKDW�FDOFXODWHG�XVLQJ�RWKHU�PHWKRGV�E\�+6�������7KHUHIRUH��WKH�VXJJHVWLRQ�IURP�WKLV�DQDO\VLV�LV�WKDW�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�PD\�EH�SDUWO\�UHVSRQVLEOH�IRU�WKH�FXUUHQW�DEVHQFH�RI�ROGHU��ODUJHU�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH���,Q�VXPPDU\��IURP�WKH�HVWLPDWHV�RI��ELRPDVV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�WKH�FRQFOXVLRQV�DUH�����WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�QRZ�JUHDWHU�WKDQ�LW�ZDV�LQ�WKH�����¶V�DQG�����¶V��,Q�IDFW�PRUH�WKDQ�WZLFH�DV�JUHDW�����EXW�����RI�WKLV�ELRPDVV�LV�VPDOOHU�WKDQ�WKH�PLQLPXP�ODQGLQJ�VL]H��DQG�����RI�LW�LV�ZKLWLQJ�����WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�ELRPDVV�KDV�UHFRYHUHG�IURP�WKH�LQFUHGLEO\�KLJK�H[SORLWDWLRQ�UDWHV�LQ�WKH�����¶V�DQG�����¶V�����KHQFH�WKH�&O\GH�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHP�LV�SURGXFWLYH��,W�WKHUHIRUH�KDV�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�WR�EH�UHVWRUHG�����KRZHYHU��LW�LV�LQ�D�QHZ�UHJLPH�ZLWK�DEXQGDQW�VPDOO�ILVK�DQG�IHZ�ODUJH�ILVK�����LQ�RUGHU�WR�UHFRYHU�WKH�HFRV\VWHP�WRZDUGV�D�KHDOWK\�VWDWH��ZH�QHHG�WR�ILQG�PHDVXUHV�ZKLFK�DOORZ�ODUJH�ILVK�WR�VXUYLYH�DQG�LQFUHDVH���������� 7KH�0L[�RI�'HPHUVDO�)LVK�6SHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��8VLQJ�WKH�VXUYH\�GDWD��+6�����VKRZ�KRZ�WKH�PL[�RI�ILVK�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�KDV�DOWHUHG��7R�GR�WKLV�WKH\�XVH�D�PHDVXUH�FDOOHG�³HYHQQHVV´��7KLV�PHDVXUH�KDV�D�YDOXH�RI�FORVH�WR���ZKHQ�DOO�VSHFLHV�DUH�HTXDOO\�SUHVHQW��EXW�UHGXFHV�WR�YHU\�ORZ�YDOXHV�LI�D�IHZ�VSHFLHV�GRPLQDWH��$�KHDOWK\�HFRV\VWHP�LV�JHQHUDOO\�WKRXJKW�WR�KDYH�DQ�HYHQ�PL[�RI�VSHFLHV��DQG�WKH�HYHQQHVV�VKRXOG�QRW�DOWHU�GUDVWLFDOO\���,Q�WKH�&O\GH��+6�����IRXQG�WKDW�WKH�DYHUDJH�HYHQQHVV�IDFWRU�GHFOLQHG�VLJQLILFDQWO\�EHWZHHQ������DQG�������DOWKRXJK�KDV�VLQFH�VWDUWHG�WR�UHFRYHU��)LJXUH�������7KLV�FDQ�DOVR�EH�VHHQ�LQ�

Page 86: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH������ZKLFK�SUHVHQWV�WKH�VSHFLHV�PL[�ZKLFK�PDNHV�XS�����RI�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�ELRPDVV�GXULQJ�ILYH�GLIIHUHQW�ILVKLQJ�³UHJLPHV´�LQ�WKH�&O\GH����

)LJXUH�����7KH�DYHUDJH��ORHVV�VPRRWKHU��YDOXH�RI�WKH�VSHFLHV�HYHQQHVV�LQGLFDWRU��FDOFXODWHG�XVLQJ�UHVHDUFK�YHVVHO�VXUYH\�GDWD�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\�+6������7KLV�LQGLFDWRU�KDV�D�YDOXH�RI���ZKHQ�DOO�VSHFLHV�DUH�HTXDOO\�SUHVHQW��DQG�UHGXFHV�WRZDUGV�]HUR�DV�IHZHU�VSHFLHV�GRPLQDWH�D�FRPPXQLW\��

�3HULRG� )LVKHU\�5HJLPH�

������������ &O\GH�FORVHG�WR�ODUJH�WUDZOHUV������������� &O\GH�RSHQHG�WR�ODUJH�WUDZOHUV�EH\RQG���QP��RSHQHG�LQ������������±������ ��QP�OLPLW�UHPRYHG��������±�3($.�(;3/2,7$7,21�$1'�&2//$36(������±������ 1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�FRPPHQFHV�±�GHPHUVDO�YHVVHOV�FRQYHUW������±������ 1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�FRQWLQXHV��E\�FDWFK�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK��

)LJXUH�����7KH�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�WKDW�PDNH�XS�����RI�WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�&O\GH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK��IURP�7DEOH����+6�������

Page 87: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)URP�)LJXUH�����WKH�VSHFLHV�FKDQJH�WKDW�UHVXOWHG�LQ�WKH�GHFOLQH�RI�WKH�HYHQQHVV�LQGLFDWRU�LV�HYLGHQW��:KLWLQJ�LQFUHDVHG�IURP�MXVW����RI�WKH�VSHFLHV�PL[�LQ������������WR�D�PD[LPXP�RI�����LQ������������,Q�WKH�HDUOLHU�SHULRG�WKHUH�ZHUH����VSHFLHV�PDNLQJ�XS�����RI�WKH�ELRPDVV��ZKHUHDV�E\������WKHUH�ZHUH�MXVW���VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�PL[��7KH�ODUJH�SUHGDWRU�ILVK�VSXUGRJ��ZKLFK�PDGH�XS�����RI�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�ELRPDVV�LQ�WKH�HDUOLHU�SHULRG��YDQLVKHG�IURP�WKH�WRS�VSHFLHV�OLVW�E\�������,Q�FRQWUDVW��VPDOO�ILVK�VXFK�DV�SRRU�FRG�DQG�1RUZD\�SRXW��ZKLFK�ZHUH�SUHVHQW�LQ�WKH�HDUOLHU�SHULRG�EXW�GLG�QRW�PDNH�LW�LQWR�WKH�WRS�VSHFLHV�OLVW��LQFUHDVHG�LQ�VLJQLILFDQFH�DQG�DIWHU������UHSUHVHQWHG�DERXW����DQG����UHVSHFWLYHO\�RI�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�ELRPDVV��)LJXUH������SUHVHQWV�WKLV�FKDQJLQJ�VSHFLHV�PL[�SLFWRULDOO\��

Page 88: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

��)LJXUH������3LFWRULDO�UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ�RI�WKH�FKDQJH�LQ�WKH�VSHFLHV�PL[�PDNLQJ�XS�����RI�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�ELRPDVV�EHWZHHQ�����������DQG�����������LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��IURP�7DEOH����+6�������3LFWXUHV�DQG�SKRWRV�IURP�)LVK%DVH��

Page 89: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

&RQFOXVLRQV�IURP�WKH�VWXG\�RI�WKH�PL[�RI�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�FDQ�EH�VXPPDULVHG�DV�IROORZV�����)LVKLQJ�KDV�VLJQLILFDQWO\�DOWHUHG�WKH�PL[�RI�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�����7KH�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\�KDV�FKDQJHG�IURP�DQ�HYHQ�RQH��ZLWK�PDQ\�ODUJH�SUHGDWRU�VSHFLHV��WR�RQH�GRPLQDWHG�E\�ZKLWLQJ�DQG�RWKHU�VPDOO�ILVK�����$ORQJ�ZLWK�RWKHU�LQGLFDWRUV�DQG�WDJJLQJ�GDWD��WKH�IDFW�WKDW�VSHFLHV�HYHQQHVV�FKDQJHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�YHU\�GLIIHUHQWO\�WKDQ�WKDW�REVHUYHG�LQ�QHDUE\�ZDWHUV�LQ�WKH�6HD�RI�WKH�+HEULGHV�DQG�WKH�,ULVK�6HD��FRQILUPV�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�ILVK�SRSXODWLRQV�UHVSRQG�ORFDOO\�WR�ILVKLQJ�SUHVVXUH����7KLV�DOVR�VXJJHVWV�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�FDQ�EH�PDQDJHG�VHSDUDWHO\�IURP�WKH�6FRWWLVK�ZHVW�FRDVW��ZLWK�D�JRRG�FKDQFH�RI�UHFRYHU\�XVLQJ�ORFDO�UHVWRUDWLRQ�PHDVXUHV�LUUHVSHFWLYH�RI�ZKDW�KDSSHQV�HOVHZKHUH�����,QGHHG��FRQVHUYDWLRQ�PHDVXUHV�DSSOLHG�WR�WKH�ZHVW�FRDVW�DV�D�ZKROH�PD\�QRW�EH�VXIILFLHQW�IRU�WKH�&O\GH��DV�LW�UHVSRQGV�GLIIHUHQWO\�DQG�LQGHSHQGHQWO\�IURP�WKH�DGMDFHQW�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV������+6�����IRXQG�WKDW�WKHUH�ZDV�D�ODJ�RI�DERXW����\HDUV�EHWZHHQ�WKH�PD[LPXP�DYHUDJH�UHODWLYH�UHPRYDO�RI�ILVK�IURP�WKH�&O\GH��WKH�+DUYHVW�5DWLR�SHDNHG�LQ�DERXW�������DQG�WKH�PD[LPXP�HIIHFW�RQ�WKH�PL[�RI�VSHFLHV��ZKLFK�UHDFKHG�D�PLQLPXP�LQ��������6XFK�D�ODJ�LV�IRXQG�LQ�RWKHU�LQGLFDWRUV�+6�����XVH�RI�WKH�KHDOWK�RI�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��,W�LV�W\SLFDO�RI�WKH�FRPSOH[�LQWHUDFWLRQV�ZKLFK�H[LVW�LQ�DQ�HFRV\VWHP��DQG�VKRZV�WKDW�ZH�FDQ�QRW�H[SHFW�UHVWRUDWLRQ�PHDVXUHV�WR�KDYH�LPPHGLDWH�HIIHFWV��7KLV�LV�SDUWLFXODUO\�WUXH�LI�ZH�KDYH�IRUFHG�WKH�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP�IURP�RQH�VWDEOH�VWDWH�WR�DQRWKHU�����

���� &RQFOXGLQJ�5HPDUNV��7KHUH�DUH�DOUHDG\�SRVLWLYH�VLJQV�RI�FKDQJH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�SRSXODWLRQV���6LQFH������WKH�VSHFLHV�HYHQQHVV�LQGH[�LV�LQFUHDVLQJ��,Q�WKH�SHULRG�����������MXVW���ILVK�VSHFLHV�PDGH�XS�����RI�WKH�ELRPDVV�RI�&O\GH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK��ZKHUHDV�LQ�����������WKLV�KDG�LQFUHDVHG�WR����,Q�WKH�HDUOLHU�SHULRG�����RI�WKH�ELRPDVV�ZDV�ZKLWLQJ��ZKLOH�LQ�WKH�ODWHU�SHULRG�WKLV�KDG�GHFUHDVHG�WR������3RVVLEO\�WKH�PRVW�SRVLWLYH�VLJQ�LV�LQ�WKH�VL]H�RI�WKH�ELRPDVV�LWVHOI��ZKLFK�KDV�VKRZQ�D�VLJQLILFDQW�LQFUHDVH�VLQFH�������$OO�RI�WKHVH�LQGLFDWRUV�RI�LPSURYLQJ�FRQGLWLRQV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�VKRXOG�EH�VWURQJ�DUJXPHQWV�VXSSRUWLQJ�WKH�SURVSHFW�RI�D�UHVWRUHG�&O\GH���7KH�FKDQJHV�LQ�WHFKQLFDO�PHDVXUHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\��FKDQJH�IURP���PP�WR���PP�PHVK�VL]H��LQWURGXFWLRQ�RI�VTXDUH�PHVK�SDQHOV��SRWHQWLDOO\�DVVLVW�LQ�UHGXFLQJ�FDWFKHV�RI�VPDOO�ILVK�DQG�PD\�KDYH�FRQWULEXWHG�WR�VRPH�RI�WKH�HDUO\�VLJQV�RI�LPSURYHPHQW�UHFRUGHG�LQ�WKLV�VWXG\��)RU�WKLV�LPSURYHPHQW�WR�FRQWLQXH��IXUWKHU�GHYHORSPHQWV�DUH�UHTXLUHG�LQ�RUGHU�WR�DOORZ�KLJKHU�SURSRUWLRQV�RI�PHGLXP�DQG�ODUJH�VL]H�ILVK�WR�HVFDSH�DQG�JURZ���,I�ZH�DUH�WR�GHVLJQ�RSWLPXP�UHVWRUDWLRQ�SODQV�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�6HD��WKH\�PXVW�EH�EXLOW�RQ�VRXQG�VFLHQFH��+RZHYHU��ZH�FDQ�QRW�ZDLW�LQGHILQLWHO\�IRU�WKH�UHVXOWV�RI�IXUWKHU�VFLHQWLILF�VWXGLHV��$Q�LQWHJUDWHG�VFLHQFH���SROLF\�DSSURDFK�LV�QHHGHG�VR�WKDW�SURJUHVV�FDQ�EH�PDGH�RQ�ERWK�IURQWV�DW�WKH�VDPH�WLPH��7R�EH�VXFFHVVIXO��WKLV�VKRXOG�LQWLPDWHO\�LQYROYH�DOO�VHFWRUV�RI�VRFLHW\�ZLWK�DQ�LQWHUHVW�LQ�WKH�IXWXUH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD���,W�FRXOG�EH�DUJXHG�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�JLYHV�6FRWODQG�DQ�RSSRUWXQLW\�WR�GHPRQVWUDWH�OHDGHUVKLS�LQ�WHUPV�RI�HFRV\VWHP�UHVWRUDWLRQ��,W�LV�RXU�RZQ�LQODQG�VHD��RYHU�ZKLFK�ZH�KDYH�VLJQLILFDQW�PDQDJHPHQW�FRQWURO��:H�ZLOO�EH�UHTXLUHG�WR�EULQJ�WKH�&O\GH�WR�*RRG�(QYLURQPHQWDO�6WDWXV�

Page 90: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

E\������E\�WKH�0DULQH�6WUDWHJ\�)UDPHZRUN�'LUHFWLYH��&XUUHQWO\�WKH�&O\GH�ZRXOG�FHUWDLQO\�IDLO�WHVWV�VXFK�DV�WKH�/DUJH�)LVK�,QGLFDWRU��DQG�PHDVXUHV�RI�ELRGLYHUVLW\�KHDOWK��$�UHVWRUHG�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP�FRXOG�EULQJ�PDUNHW�DGYDQWDJHV�WR�WKH�ILVKLQJ�LQGXVWU\��WKURXJK�HFRODEHOOLQJ�DQG�KHDGOLQH�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�DFKLHYHPHQWV��+RZHYHU��ILVKLQJ�VHFWRUV�ZLOO�KDYH�WR�ZRUN�WRJHWKHU�LQ�DQ�RSHQ�DQG�WUDQVSDUHQW�ZD\��7KH�DOORFDWLRQ�RI�EODPH�LV�DQ�HQWLUHO\�ZDVWHIXO�DFWLYLW\��&RQVHUYDWLRQLVWV�PXVW�DOVR�DFFHSW�WKDW�WKH�&O\GH�LV�QRW�D�SULVWLQH�HFRV\VWHP�DQG�QHYHU�ZLOO�EH��,W�LV�KHDYLO\�XVHG�E\�VRFLHW\�IRU�PDQ\�OHJLWLPDWH�SXUSRVHV��RI�ZKLFK�IRRG�H[WUDFWLRQ�LV�RQH��)RFXV�PXVW�DOZD\V�EH�RQ�WKH�EHVW�ZD\�IRUZDUG�IRU�DOO��&RPSURPLVHV�ZLOO�EH�SRVVLEOH�LI�DOO�VWDNHKROGHUV�DSSURDFK�WKH�FKDOOHQJHV�LQ�D�FRQVWUXFWLYH�ZD\����

���� 6XJJHVWLRQV�IRU�)XUWKHU�:RUN��$�FRPSUHKHQVLYH�VXUYH\�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LV�UHTXLUHG��LQFOXGLQJ�VPDOO�ILVK��7KH�VXUYH\�VKRXOG�LQFOXGH�D�IRFXV�RQ�WKH�VH[XDOO�PDWXULW\�DQG�VWRFN�LGHQWLILFDWLRQ�RI�ZKLWLQJ��7KH�VXUYH\�FRXOG�EH�DFFRPSDQLHG�E\�LQFUHDVHG�REVHUYDWLRQV�RI�WKH�GLVFDUGV�RI�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�LQ�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\����

Page 91: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

��� 7B(&26<67(0�&203$5,6216��&KDQJHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�HFRV\VWHP�DUH�VLPLODU�LQ�PDQ\�DVSHFWV�WR�WKRVH�ZKLFK�KDYH�RFFXUUHG�LQ�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHPV�WKH�ZRUOG�RYHU�DV�D�UHVXOW�RI�QDWXUDO�DQG�DQWKURSRJHQLF�LPSDFWV��(DFK�VRXUFH�RI�LPSDFW�PD\�LQGXFH�GLIIHUHQW�SDWWHUQV�RI�UHVSRQVH�LQ�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHPV�WKDW�UHIOHFW�WKH�GLIIHUHQW�ELRORJLFDO�SURGXFWLRQ�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�RI�WKH�HFRV\VWHP��,Q�DGGLWLRQ��FRDVWDO��VKHOI�DQG�PDUJLQDO�VHD�HFRV\VWHPV�ZKLFK�DUH�KHDYLO\�VXEMHFWHG�WR�KXPDQ�LQGXFHG�SHUWXUEDWLRQV�DUH�WKRXJKW�WR�H[SHULHQFH�PRUH�FRPSOLFDWHG�UHJLPH�FKDQJHV�XQGHU�PXOWLSOH�IRUFLQJ�WKDQ�RFHDQLF�HFRV\VWHPV��2JX]�DQG�*LOEHUW���������8QGHUVWDQGLQJ�WKH�VWUXFWXUH�DQG�IXQFWLRQ�RI�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHPV�DQG�WKHLU�UHVSRQVH�WR�VXFK�SHUWXUEDWLRQV�FDQ�EH�DLGHG�E\�D�FRPSDUDWLYH�DSSURDFK��0HJUH\�HW�DO�����������

���� 35B%ODFN�6HD��7KH�%ODFN�6HD�LV�D�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHP�ZKLFK�KDV�DOVR�H[SHULHQFHG�D�FROODSVH�LQ�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVKHULHV�DQG�KDV�XQGHUJRQH�GUDPDWLF�FKDQJHV�LQ�LWV�HFRORJLFDO�SURSHUWLHV�IURP�WKH�HDUO\�����¶V�±�����¶V��7KH�%ODFN�6HD��DOWKRXJK�RQ�D�ODUJHU�VFDOH��LV�VLPLODU�WR�WKH�&O\GH�LQ�WKDW�LW�LV�D�VHPL�HQFORVHG�HFRV\VWHP�ZLWK�D�KLVWRU\�RI�LQWHQVH�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVKLQJ�SUHVVXUH�DQG�KHDY\�RUJDQLF�SROOXWLRQ��7KH�WZR�HFRV\VWHPV�DOVR�VKDUH�VLPLODU�WURSKLF�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�ZKLFK�DW�RQH�SRLQW�VXSSRUWHG�VWRFNV�RI�VPDOO�SHODJLF�ILVK���7KH�%ODFN�6HD�UHFHLYHV�H[WUDRUGLQDULO\�KLJK�QXWULHQW�ORDGLQJ�DQG�FRQWDPLQDQWV�IURP�ULYHUV�WKDW�GUDLQ�KDOI�RI�(XURSH�DQG�SDUWV�RI�$VLD��2JX]�HW�DO����������8QFRQWUROOHG��LQGXVWULDO�ILVKHULHV�IRU�SHODJLF�VSHFLHV��ERQLWR��PDFNHUHO��EOXHILVK��DQG�GROSKLQV��VWDUWHG�RQ�D�KXJH�VFDOH�LQ�WKH�HDUO\�����V�DQG�ZLWKLQ����\HDUV�WKH�VWRFNV�EHFDPH�VHYHUHO\�GHSOHWHG��'DVNDORY���������$�VWXG\�E\�2JX]�DQG�*LOEHUW��������LOOXVWUDWHG�WKH�H[LVWHQFH�RI�UHJLPH�VKLIW�HYHQWV��IURP�HFRORJLFDO�GDWD��������������GXH�WR�WKH�V\QFKURQRXV�IRUFLQJ�RI�PDUNHG�QXWULHQW�HQULFKPHQW��RYHUILVKLQJ�DQG�FOLPDWLF�FRROLQJ�ZDUPLQJ��7KH�ILUVW�PDMRU�FKDQJH�LQ�WKH�IRRG�ZHE�RI�WKH�%ODFN�6HD�ZDV�WKH�GHFOLQH�RI�ODUJH�SUHGDWRU�ILVK�SRSXODWLRQV�DQG�WKH�VXEVHTXHQW�LQFUHDVH�RI�VPDOO�SHODJLF�ILVK�VWRFNV��7KH�VHFRQG�VKLIW�FRUUHVSRQGHG�WR�WKH�FROODSVH�RI�WKH�VPDOO�SHODJLF�VWRFNV�IROORZHG�E\�DQ�LPPHGLDWH�ULVH�RI�JHODWLQRXV�VWRFNV�LQ�WKH�ODWH�����V��,W�ZDV�FRQFOXGHG�E\�2JX]�DQG�*LOEHUW�WKDW�WKH�UHJLPH�VKLIWV�LQ�WKH�%ODFN�6HD�VXSSRUWV�VWURQJO\�WKH�DVVHUWLRQ�WKDW�WKH�FRPELQDWLRQ�RI�HXWURSKLFDWLRQ�DQG�H[WUHPH�RYHUILVKLQJ�FDQ�LQGXFH�K\VWHUHVLV�LQ�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHPV�LI�WKH\�H[HUW�VXIILFLHQWO\�VWURQJ�IRUFLQJ�RQ�WKH�V\VWHP���+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV��������KDYH�VXJJHVWHG�D�VLPLODU�K\VWHUHVLV�KDV�RFFXUUHG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�HFRV\VWHP�ZKHUH�WKHUH�KDV�EHHQ�D�WUDQVLWLRQ�WR�DQ�DOWHUQDWLYH�VWDEOH�VWDWH�GRPLQDWHG�E\�VPDOO�ILVK��VHH�6HFWLRQ������

���� 36B*XOI�RI�6W�/DZUHQFH��1RUWKZHVW�$WODQWLF�HFRV\VWHPV�KDYH�KLVWRULFDOO\�VXSSRUWHG�WKH�ODUJHVW�DQG�GHQVHVW�FRG�VWRFNV��+RZHYHU��PDQ\�RI�WKHVH�FRG�VWRFNV�KDYH�VWHHSO\�GHFOLQHG��+DPLOWRQ�HW�DO���������&KULVWHQVHQ�HW�DO���������0\HUV�HW�DO����������%LRORJLFDO�DQDO\VHV�SRLQW�WR�RYHUILVKLQJ�DV�WKH�SULPDU\�FDXVH�RI�WKH�FROODSVH�ZLWK�HQYLURQPHQWDO�FRQGLWLRQV�EHLQJ�D�FRQWULEXWLQJ�IDFWRU��+XWFKLQJV�DQG�0\HUV��������'ULQNZDWHU��������,Q�WKH�*XOI�RI�6W�/DZUHQFH�D�ILVKLQJ�PRUDWRULXP�ZDV�SXW�LQ�SODFH�E\�WKH�&DQDGLDQ�JRYHUQPHQW�LQ������WR�SURPRWH�WKH�UHFRYHU\�RI�WKHVH�VWRFNV��'HVSLWH�WKLV�PRUDWRULXP�RQ�1RUWKHUQ�FRG�LQ������DQG�VXEVHTXHQW�VWULFW�PDQDJHPHQW�HIIRUWV�WKH�VWRFN�KDV�IDLOHG�WR�UHERXQG�DQG�LQ�$SULO������WKH�1RUWKHUQ�FRG�ILVKHU\�ZDV�FORVHG��+DPLOWRQ�HW�DO����������6LPLODUO\�WKH�FRG�VWRFNV�WR�WKH�ZHVW�RI�6FRWODQG�KDYH�QRW�VKRZQ�DQ\�VLJQLILFDQW�VLJQV�RI�D�UHERXQG�GHVSLWH�WKH�VWULFW�PDQDJHPHQW�VWUDWHJLHV�LQ�SODFH�WR�SURWHFW�FRG��

Page 92: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

�6LPLODUO\�WR�WKH�&O\GH�ILVKHULHV��VLQFH�WKH�FROODSVH�RI�FRG�DQG�RWKHU�JURXQGILVK�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�*XOI�RI�6W��/DZUHQFH��ILVKLQJ�HIIRUW�KDV�EHHQ�PRUH�GLUHFWHG�WRZDUGV�VKHOOILVK�ILVKHULHV��0RULVVHWWH�HW�DO����������$V�FRG�FDWFKHV�GHFOLQHG�LQ�WKH�HDUO\�����V�DQG�����V�HIIRUW�ZDV�UHGLUHFWHG�WRZDUGV�LQYHUWHEUDWH�ILVKHULHV��PRVW�QRWDEO\�QRUWKHUQ�VKULPS��3DQGXOXV�ERUHDOLV��DQG�$PHULFDQ�OREVWHU��+RPDUXV�DPHULFDQXV���0XFK�OLNH�WKH�&O\GH��WKH�WRWDO�YDOXH�RI�WKH�QHZ�LQYHUWHEUDWH�ILVKHULHV�H[FHHGHG�WKDW�RI�FRG�ZKHQ�FDWFKHV�ZHUH�DW�WKHLU�PD[LPXP��+DPLOWRQ�HW�DO�����������

���� 37B0HGLWHUUDQHDQ���7KH�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�ILVKHU\�KDV�H[SHULHQFHG�D�GHFOLQH�LQ�FDWFKHV�RYHU�WKH�SDVW����\HDUV�GXH�WR�DQ�H[FHVVLYH�LQFUHDVH�LQ�HIIRUW��6DUGD�HW�DO����������+DNH�LV�WKH�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW�WDUJHW�VSHFLHV�RI�WKH�PL[HG�GHPHUVDO�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�ZHVWHUQ�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�DQG�ODQGLQJV�KDYH�EHHQ�GHFUHDVLQJ�IURP�D�PD[LPXP�VLQFH�WKH�HDUO\�����V��,Q�DGGLWLRQ��DQ�LQFUHDVLQJ�VKDUH�RI�WKH�FDWFK�KDV�EHHQ�LPPDWXUH�LQGLYLGXDOV��6DUGD�HW�DO����������'LVFDUGLQJ�LV�D�PDMRU�SUREOHP��VLPLODU�WR�WKH�&O\GH��DQG�LQ�WKH�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�VPDOO�MXYHQLOH�KDNH�DUH�WKH�KDUGHVW�KLW��$V�D�UHVXOW��D�ORW�RI�UHVHDUFK�HIIRUW�KDV�EHHQ�LQYHVWHG�WR�LPSURYH�VHOHFWLYLW\�DQG�UHGXFH�E\�FDWFK�OHYHOV��&KHUHW�HW�DO���������$OHPDQ\�DQG�$OYDUH]��������6DUGD�HW�DO���������6DUGD�HW�DO�����������6WXGLHV�DQG�VLPXODWLRQV�RI�HVFDSH�V\VWHPV�IRU�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�KDNH�VXJJHVW�WKDW�DOORZLQJ�WKH�HVFDSH�RI�VPDOO�ILVK�FRXOG�EULQJ�DERXW�D��������LQFUHDVH�LQ�FDWFKHV�RI�ODUJHU�LQGLYLGXDOV�IRXU�RU�ILYH�\HDUV�ODWHU�DIWHU�LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ�RI�WKH�V\VWHP��&KHUHW�HW�DO����������6HOHFWLYLW\�VWXGLHV�IRU�WKH�KDNH�ILVKHU\�KDYH�VKRZQ�WKDW�LQ�JHQHUDO�WKH�XVH�RI�VRUWLQJ�JULGV�UHVXOWV�LQ�KLJK�HVFDSH�UDWHV�IRU�LQGLYLGXDOV�WKDW�DUH�LPPDWXUH�RU�XQGHU�PLQLPXP�ODQGLQJ�VL]H��6DUGD�HW�DO����������7KH�XVH�RI�D�VTXDUH�PHVK�FRG�HQG�LQ�WKLV�ILVKHU\�KDV�DOVR�EHHQ�VKRZQ�WR�DOORZ�PRUH�ILVK�WR�HVFDSH�EXW�LV�PXFK�OHVV�HIILFLHQW�WKDQ�WKH�VRUWLQJ�JULG��6DUGD�HW�DO�����������5HFHQWO\�WKH�*HQHUDO�)LVKHULHV�&RPPLVVLRQ�IRU�WKH�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ��*)&0��LQFLWHG�WKH�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�FRXQWULHV�WR�VXEVWLWXWH�WKH�GLDPRQG�PHVKHV�RI�WKH�WUDZO�FRG�HQG�E\����PP�VTXDUH�PHVKHV�IRU�WKH�ERWWRP�WUDZOLQJ�IOHHW��*)&0���������,Q�DGGLWLRQ��*&)0�KDV�HQFRXUDJHG�WKH�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�FRXQWULHV�WR�GHYHORS�PRUH�VHOHFWLYLW\�VWXGLHV�LQ�YDULRXV�VLWXDWLRQV�DQG�WR�LQFOXGH�ELR�HFRQRPLFDO�DQDO\VLV�RI�WKHLU�XVH��7KLV�KDV�EHHQ�D�VLJQLILFDQW�VWHS�WRZDUGV�WKH�LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ�RI�VRUWLQJ�JULGV�LQ�FRPPHUFLDO�WUDZO�JHDUV�LQ�WKH�GHPHUVDO�ILVKHULHV�RI�WKH�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�6HD����

Page 93: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

��� 8B&/<'(�0$1$*(0(17�(9$/8$7,21�02'(/��&0(0���

���� 38B,QWURGXFWLRQ�� �5HFHQWO\�WKHUH�KDV�EHHQ�D�FDOO�WR�UH�LQVWDWH�VSDWLDO�PDQDJHPHQW�PHDVXUHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH���QDXWLFDO�PLOH�OLPLW�ZKLFK�KDG�EHHQ�LQ�SODFH�LQ�WKLV�UHJLRQ�IURP������������7KH�OLPLW�LV�WKRXJKW�WR�KDYH�SURYLGHG�LPSRUWDQW�UHIXJHV�IRU�PDQ\�FRPPHUFLDO�ZKLWHILVK�VSHFLHV�DQG�PD\�DOORZ�IRU�ILVK�VWRFN�UHFRYHU\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��7KXUVWDQ�DQG�5REHUWV���������6LQFH�WKH�UHPRYDO�RI�WKH���PLOH�EDQ�WKH�ILVKHULHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�KDYH�FKDQJHG�FRQVLGHUDEO\�WR�D�1HSKURSV�GRPLQDWHG�ILVKHU\��DQG�SROLF\�FKDQJHV�QRZ�QHHG�WR�FRQVLGHU�ZLGHU�HFRV\VWHP�LPSDFWV�LQ�DGGLWLRQ�WR�WKH�HFRORJLFDO�VWDWXV�RI�ILVK�DQG�VKHOOILVK�VWRFNV�DQG�WKH�HFRQRPLF�VWDWXV�RI�WKH�ILVKHU\���(IIHFWLYH�ILVKHULHV�PDQDJHPHQW�LV�QHDUO\�DOZD\V�KLQGHUHG�E\�XQFHUWDLQWLHV�ZKLFK�FDQ�EH�SDUWLFXODUO\�SUREOHPDWLF�IRU�UHEXLOGLQJ�ILVKHULHV�ZKHQ�WU\LQJ�WR�EDODQFH�WKH�QHHG�WR�UHGXFH�ILVKLQJ�HIIRUW�DQG�WR�HQVXUH�UHEXLOGLQJ��ZLWK�WKH�QHHG�WR�PHHW�VRFLDO�DQG�HFRQRPLF�QHHGV�RI�ILVKHU\�VWDNHKROGHUV��ERWK�LQ�WKH�VKRUW�WHUP�DQG�WKH�ORQJ�WHUP��+ROODQG���������6FLHQWLILF�VXSSRUW�LV�UHTXLUHG�DW�NH\�VWHSV�RI�ILVKHULHV�PDQDJHPHQW��IRU�PRQLWRULQJ��DVVHVVPHQW�DQG�GHFLVLRQ�PDNLQJ��6FLHQWLILF�WRROV�WKDW�HYDOXDWH�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�RXWFRPH�RI�PDQDJHPHQW�VWUDWHJLHV�DUH�WKHUHIRUH�UHTXLUHG�WR�VXSSRUW�WKHLU�SUDFWLFDO�LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ���6SDWLDO�DQG�WHPSRUDO�FORVXUHV�DUH�FRPPRQ�SUDFWLFH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��H�J��%DOODQWUDH�%DQN�DQG�WKH�FRG�VHDVRQDO�FORVXUH��DQG��ZLWK�WKH�SRVVLELOLW\�RI�UH�LQVWDWLQJ�D���PLOH�OLPLW��WRROV�WKDW�ORRN�DW�WKH�VSDWLDO�DQG�WHPSRUDO�G\QDPLFV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�ILVKHULHV�DUH�SDUWLFXODUO\�YDOXDEOH��,Q�DGGLWLRQ��LW�LV�XVHIXO�WR�FUHDWH�D�WRRO�WKDW�ORRNV�DW�ZLGHU�HFRORJLFDO�LPSDFWV�E\�DVVHVVLQJ�SRWHQWLDO�HIIHFWV�RQ�KDELWDWV��7KH�DLP�RI�WKLV�VHFWLRQ�RI�WKH�UHSRUW�LV�WR�GHVFULEH�WKH�GHYHORSPHQW�RI�D�VSDWLDO�PDQDJHPHQW�HYDOXDWLRQ�WRRO�WKDW�DLPV�WR�KDYH�SUDFWLFDO�DSSOLFDWLRQ�IRU�DVVHVVLQJ�ILVKHULHV�PDQDJHPHQW�RSWLRQV�DQG�SROLF\�LQLWLDWLYHV�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��7KH�WRRO�ZLOO�LQFRUSRUDWH�GDWD�RQ�WKH�WRSRJUDSK\�DQG�VHGLPHQWRORJ\�RI�WKH�VHD�EHG�LQ�DGGLWLRQ�WR�DQDO\VLQJ�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�SDWWHUQV�XVLQJ�9HVVHO�0RQLWRULQJ�6\VWHPV��906��GDWD��7KLV�PDQDJHPHQW�HYDOXDWLRQ�PRGHO�GHYHORSHG�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�LV�LQWHQGHG�WR�EH�XVHG�WR�LQIRUP�DQ�H[SORUDWRU\�DQG�DGDSWLYH�GHFLVLRQ�PDNLQJ�SURFHVV��,Q�WKLV�VHFWLRQ�ZH�DGGUHVV�D�VPDOO�UDQJH�RI�TXHVWLRQV��+RZHYHU��LW�LV�DYDLODEOH�WR�WKH�FRPPXQLW\�WR�SURYLGH�TXDQWLWDWLYH�HYLGHQFH�IRU�DQ\�VXJJHVWHG�VSDWLDO�PHDVXUH���

���� 39B0HWKRGRORJ\�DQG�0RGHO�'DWD�/D\HUV��'HYHORSPHQW�RI�WKH�HYDOXDWLRQ�PRGHO�ZDV�EXLOW�XVLQJ�WKH�VWDWLVWLFDO�SURJUDPPLQJ�VRIWZDUH�5��YHUVLRQ���������������� 58B&UHDWH�JULG���7KH�ILUVW�VWHS�LQ�GHYHORSLQJ�WKH�PRGHO�ZDV�WR�LPSOHPHQW�D�EDVLF�PRGHO�JULG�WKDW�SURYLGHV�LQIRUPDWLRQ�DW�D�UHOHYDQW�VSDWLDO�UHVROXWLRQ��7KLV�ZDV�FKRVHQ�DV�����¶�ODWLWXGH�[����¶�ORQJLWXGH��DSSUR[LPDWHO\����P�[����P��SHU�JULG�FHOO�LQ�RUGHU�WR�EH�DEOH�WR�VSDWLDOO\�UHVROYH�NQRZQ�PDQDJHPHQW�PHDVXUHV��7KH�RXWVLGH�OLPLWV�RI�WKH�PRGHO�JULG�ZHUH�ORQJLWXGHV�������:�WR��������¶�:�DQG�ODWLWXGHV�������1�WR����������1��7KLV�JDYH�D�PRGHO�JULG�RI�����JULG�FHOOV�DQG�����JULG�FHOOV�LQ�WKH�HDVW�DQG�QRUWK�GLUHFWLRQV�UHVSHFWLYHO\��$Q�LOOXVWUDWLRQ�RI�WKH�JULG�FUHDWHG�FDQ�EH�VHHQ�LQ�)LJXUH������

Page 94: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����(YDOXDWLRQ�PRGHO�JULG�������¶�ODWLWXGH�[����¶�ORQJLWXGH��DSSUR[LPDWHO\����P�[����P��RYHU�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��

��7KH�ORQJLWXGH��[L��RI�WKH�OHIW�KDQG��ERWWRP�RI�D�JULG�FHOO�L�M��LV�FDOFXODWHG�DV���

60/))1.(5.050(5161,1 ixi ��$QG�WKH�ODWLWXGH��\M��RI�WKH�OHIW�KDQG��ERWWRP�RI�JULG�FHOO�L�M��LV�FDOFXODWHG�DV���

60/))1.(25.050(54361,1

jyj

��7KH�GLVWDQFHV�LQYROYHG�LQ�WKLV�PRGHO�JULG�DUH�DV�IROORZV���� � :LGWK�RI������ORQJLWXGH�JULG�FHOO�DW�VRXWKHUQ�OLPLW��������1�� ������P��� � :LGWK�RI������ORQJLWXGH�JULG�FHOO�DW�QRUWKHUQ�OLPLW��������1�� ������P��� � +HLJKW�RI�������ODWLWXGH�JULG�FHOO� ������P��$�FHQWUDO�SRLQW�JULG�FHOO�DUHD�RI������P�[������P� ������[�����P���������NP���LV�XVHG�IRU�DOO�DUHD�FDOFXODWLRQV��������� 59B0DVNV��

Page 95: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

7KH�UHVXOWLQJ�����[�����JULG�FRYHUHG�ERWK�ODQG�DQG�VHD�VR�WKDW�D�PDVN�ZDV�QHHGHG�WR�GHWHUPLQH�ZKLFK�JULG�SRLQWV�ZHUH�RQ�ODQG�DQG�ZKLFK�JULG�SRLQWV�ZHUH�PDULQH��7KLV�ZDV�DFKLHYHG�XVLQJ�WKH�*(%&2�FRDVWOLQH�GDWD��*(%&2���������7KH�UHVXOWLQJ�PDVN���0DOO�L�M���KDG�D�JULG�FHOO�YDOXH�RI���IRU�ZDWHU�JULG�FHOOV��DQG���IRU�ODQG�JULG�FHOOV���$GGLWLRQDO�PDVNV�UHSUHVHQWLQJ�RQH��WZR�DQG�WKUHH�QDXWLFDO�PLOH�OLPLWV��GRPDLQV��IURP�WKH�FRDVW�ZHUH�FUHDWHG�XVLQJ�WKH�EXIIHU�WRRO�LQ�$UF*,6�ZKLFK�ZHUH�WKHQ�H[SRUWHG�IRU�XVH�LQ�5���� 0RQH�L�M�� ���IRU�FHOOV�LQ�EHWZHHQ�WKH�FRDVW�DQG���QP�VHDZDUGV��RWKHUZLVH����� 0WZR�L�M�� ���IRU�FHOOV�LQ�EHWZHHQ�WKH�FRDVW�DQG���QP�VHDZDUGV��RWKHUZLVH����� 0WKUHH�L�M�� ���IRU�FHOOV�EHWZHHQ�WKH�FRDVW�DQG���QP�VHDZDUGV���RWKHUZLVH�����8VLQJ�WKH�VHULHV�RI�PDVNV��WKH�HYDOXDWLRQ�PRGHO�FDQ�EH�XVHG�WR�LQYHVWLJDWH�WKH�SRWHQWLDO�LPSOLFDWLRQV��LPSDFWV�DQG�EHQHILWV�RI�HQIRUFLQJ�GLIIHUHQW�VSDWLDO�OLPLWV���������� 60B%DWK\PHWU\��%DWK\PHWULF�GDWD�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�ZDV�REWDLQHG�IURP�%*6�6HD=RQH������D���7KH�GDWD�VHW�ZDV�WKHQ�LQWHUSRODWHG�E\�OLQHDU�LQWHUSRODWLRQ�RQWR�WKH�PRGHO�JULG�VR�WKDW�HDFK�����[�����JULG�FHOO�KDG�DQ�DVVRFLDWHG�GHSWK�YDOXH��GL�M���ZKHUH�GL�M�ZDV�D�UHDO�YDOXH�IRU�PDULQH�JULG�FHOOV�DQG�]HUR�IRU�ODQG�JULG�FHOOV��7KH�PHWKRG�XVHG�D�ELYDULDWH�OLQHDU�LQWHUSRODWLRQ�LQ�WKH�WULDQJOHV�ERXQGHG�E\�WKH�GDWD�SRLQWV�ZKLFK�LV�EDVHG�RQ�DOJRULWKPV�GHYHORSHG�E\�$NLPD����������������� 61B$UHDV�DQG�9ROXPHV��$UHDV�ZLWKLQ�WKH�PRGHO�FDQ�EH�FDOFXODWHG�E\�VXPPLQJ�JULG�FHOOV�ZLWKLQ�WKH�FKRVHQ�GRPDLQ�DQG�PXOWLSO\LQJ�E\�WKH�DUHD�RI�D�VLQJOH�FHOO��$FHOO����

jijidomaincelldomian

MAA,

, �

�:KHUH�GRPDLQ�FDQ�EH�RQH��WZR��WKUHH�RU�DOO�DQG�$FHOO� �������NP���9ROXPHV�FDQ�EH�VLPLODUO\�FDOFXODWHG�E\�VXPPLQJ�WKH�SURGXFW�RI�WKH�GHSWK�RI�HDFK�LQGLYLGXDO�FHOO�DQG�WKH�FHOO�DUHD���

jiji

jidomaincelldomiandMAV

,,

, �

��:KHUH�DJDLQ�GRPDLQ�FDQ�EH�RQH��WZR��WKUHH�RU�DOO���������� 62B+DELWDW�7\SH��6HGLPHQW�W\SH�LV�LQGLFDWLYH�RI�ZKHUH�FHUWDLQ�KDELWDWV�RFFXU�DQG�ZKHUH�SDUWLFXODU�ILVKLQJ�JURXQGV�DUH�ORFDWHG��IRU�H[DPSOH�1HSKURSV�DUH�IRXQG�RQ�PXG��VDQG�DQG�VDQG\�PXG�VHGLPHQWV�EXW�QRW�IRXQG�RQ�JUDYHO�VHGLPHQWV��7KLV�GDWD�LV�SDUWLFXODUO\�XVHIXO�IRU�WKH�HYDOXDWLRQ�PRGHO�WR�GHWHUPLQH�SRWHQWLDO�KDELWDWV�DIIHFWHG�E\�VSDWLDO�FORVXUHV��6HGLPHQW�W\SH�GDWD�ZDV�REWDLQHG�IURP�%*6�6HD]RQH������E���6HGLPHQW�W\SH�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�HDFK�����[�����PRGHO�JULG�FHOO��6HG7\SHL�M��ZDV�WKHQ�GHWHUPLQHG�LQ�$UF*,6�DQG�FRGHG�EDVHG�RQ�WKH�IRON�WULDQJOH�FODVVLILFDWLRQ�RI�JUDYHO�SHUFHQWDJH�DQG�VDQG�WR�PXG�UDWLR��)LJXUH������WKH�GDWD�ZDV�

Page 96: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

WKHQ�H[SRUWHG�IRU�XVH�LQ�5��/DQG�JULG�FHOOV�KHOG�D�QXOO�YDOXH��DV�GLG�FHOOV�ZKHUH�QR�VHGLPHQW�GDWD�ZDV�DYDLODEOH�VXFK�DV�ZLWKLQ�VPDOOHU�VHD�ORFKV�DQG�YHU\�FORVH�WR�WKH�VKRUH���

)LJXUH�����)RON�WULDQJOH�FODVVLILFDWLRQV�RI�VHGLPHQW�JUDYHO�SHUFHQWDJH�DQG�VDQG�WR�PXG�UDWLR��

������� 63B)LVKLQJ�$FWLYLW\�'DWD��906���)RU�FRQWURO�DQG�HQIRUFHPHQW�SXUSRVHV��DOO�ILVKLQJ�YHVVHOV�DERYH���P�LQ�OHQJWK�DUH�HTXLSSHG�ZLWK�VDWHOOLWH�EDVHG�9HVVHO�0RQLWRULQJ�E\�6DWHOOLWH�V\VWHPV��906��UHFRUGLQJ�WKHLU�SRVLWLRQ�DW�UHJXODU�WLPH�LQWHUYDOV��7KLV�906�GDWD�LV�D�YDOXDEOH�VRXUFH�RI�LQIRUPDWLRQ�DQG�FDQ�EH�XVHG�WR�VWXG\�VSDWLDO�DQG�WHPSRUDO�SDWWHUQV�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\��0LOOV�HW�DO���������ZKLFK�FDQ�LQ�WXUQ�LQIRUP�ILVKHULHV�DQG�HQYLURQPHQWDO�PDQDJHPHQW��+RZHYHU��GXH�WR�WKHLU�ORZ�UHVROXWLRQ��DW���KRXU�LQWHUYDOV��WKHVH�GDWD�PD\�SURYLGH�D�ELDVHG�SHUFHSWLRQ�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\��+LQW]HQ�HW�DO����������$SSO\LQJ�DQ�LQWHUSRODWLRQ�WHFKQLTXH�EHWZHHQ�906�GDWD�SRLQWV�SURYLGHV�KLJKHU�UHVROXWLRQ�JHDU�VSHFLILF�GDWD�RQ�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH���'DWD�([WUDFWLRQ��906�DQG�ODQGLQJV�GDWD�LQ������IRU�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD�ZHUH�H[WUDFWHG�IURP�WKH�6FRWWLVK�*RYHUQPHQW�)LVKHULHV�,QIRUPDWLRQ�1HWZRUN��),1��GDWDEDVH��7KLV�GDWD�ZDV�WKHQ�OLQNHG�E\�YHVVHO�3/1�QXPEHU�ZLWKLQ�5�URXWLQHV��5DZ�906�GDWD�LQFOXGHG�ODWLWXGH��ORQJLWXGH��GDWH��WLPH��YHVVHO�LGHQWLILFDWLRQ��YHVVHO�VSHHG�DQG�RWKHU�GDWD�TXDOLW\�DQG�FKHFNLQJ�SDUDPHWHUV��7KH�GXUDWLRQ�VLQFH�WKH�ODVW�SLQJ�LQ�VHFRQGV��7SLQJNERDW��ZDV�FDOFXODWHG�DQG�DGGHG�DV�DQ�DGGLWLRQDO�SDUDPHWHU�WR�HDFK�UDZ�SLQJ�GDWD�UHFRUG��,I�7SLQJNERDW�H[FHHGHG���KRXUV��WKH�GDWD�ZDV�UHMHFWHG���7KH�LQWHJHU�NERDW�LGHQWLILHG�HDFK�YHVVHO�ZKLFK�KDG�UHFRUGHG�906�SLQJV�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH��)RU������WKLV�ZDV�D�WRWDO�RI����YHVVHOV�����WDUJHWLQJ�1HSKURSV�DQG����VFDOORSV���)LVKLQJ�7LPH��7KH�VSHHG�UDQJH�XVHG�WR�GHWHUPLQH�LI�D�YHVVHO�LV�ILVKLQJ�ZDV�HVWDEOLVKHG�DV�����NQRWV�EDVHG�RQ�D�IUHTXHQF\�DQDO\VLV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�906�GDWD��)LJXUH��������

Page 97: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

)LJXUH�����+LVWRJUDP�RI�ILVKLQJ�YHVVHO�VSHHGV�IURP�906�GDWD�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�������)URP�WKLV�DQDO\VLV�ILVKLQJ�LV�GHWHUPLQHG�DV�906�SLQJV�ZKHUH�VSHHG�LV�EHWZHHQ���DQG���NQRWV��LQFOXVLYHO\��

�'DWD�,QWHUSRODWLRQ��,Q�WKH�UDZ�GDWD��7SLQJNERDW�YDULHV�EHWZHHQ�D�IHZ�PLQXWHV�DQG���KRXUV��DOWKRXJK�WKH�PDMRULW\�ZHUH�DSSUR[LPDWHO\���KRXUV��,Q�WKH�ZRUVW�FDVH�VFHQDULR��D�YHVVHO�WUDYHOOLQJ�DW���NQRWV�ZLOO�PRYH���NP�LQ���KRXUV��2EYLRXVO\�WKLV�LV�PXFK�JUHDWHU�WKDQ�WKH�PRGHO�JULG�VSDFLQJ��7KHUHIRUH�VRPH�LQWHUSRODWLRQ�LV�UHTXLUHG��$W���NQRWV�LW�WDNHV�D�YHVVHO���PLQXWHV�WR�WUDYHUVH����P��7KHUHIRUH��LQ�RUGHU�WR�REWDLQ�DW�OHDVW�RQH�LQWHUSRODWHG�906�SRVLWLRQ�ZLWKLQ�HDFK�JULG�FHOO�D�YHVVHO�SDVVHV�WKURXJK��HDFK�UDZ�906�WUDFN�QHHGV�WR�EH�LQWHUSRODWHG�ZLWK�D�WLPH�UHVROXWLRQ�RI����PLQXWHV���7KH�PHWKRG�XVHG�IRU�LQWHUSRODWLQJ�YHVVHO�WUDMHFWRULHV�IURP�WKH�H[WUDFWHG�906�GDWD�SRLQWV�WR�REWDLQ�KLJKHU�UHVROXWLRQ�GDWD�ZDV�WKH�FXELF�+HUPLWH�VSOLQH��F+V��LQWHUSRODWLRQ�PHWKRG�GHVFULEHG�E\�+LQW]HQ�HW�DO����������7KH�F+V�PHWKRG�XVHV�SRVLWLRQ��KHDGLQJ�DQG�VSHHG�WR�LQWHUSRODWH�WKH�WUDFN�RI�D�YHVVHO�EHWZHHQ�WZR�VXFFHHGLQJ�GDWD�SRLQWV�DQG�ZDV�VKRZQ�E\�+LQW]HQ�HW�DO���������WR�DSSUR[LPDWH�WKH�UHDO�YHVVHO�WUDFN�PDUNHGO\�EHWWHU�WKDQ�D�VWUDLJKW�OLQH�LQWHUSRODWLRQ��7KH�µYPVWRROV¶�SDFNDJH�FUHDWHG�LQ�5�DOORZV�WKH�XVH�RI�WKH�F+V�LQWHUSRODWLRQ�IXQFWLRQ�EDVHG�RQ�WKH�ILVKLQJ�VSHHG�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�WKH�SDUWLFXODU�ILVKHULHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��,QWHUSRODWHG�SLQJV�WKDW�IHOO�RQ�ODQG�JULG�FHOOV��H�J��ZKHQ�WUDYHUVLQJ�DURXQG�D�KHDGODQG��ZHUH�UHPRYHG��WKLV�ZDV�OHVV�WKDQ������RI�WKH�LQWHUSRODWHG�GDWD�����)LQDO�906�'DWD�6HWV�±�)LVKLQJ�7LPH��7KH�ILQDO�GDWD�VHWV�ZHUH�����[�����YDOXHV�RI�WRWDO�JULG�FHOO�ILVKLQJ�WLPH��7ILVKL�M���FDOFXODWHG�DV�WKH�VXP�RI�DOO�YDOXHV�RI�7SLQJNERDW�ZKLFK�IHOO�ZLWKLQ�WKH�JULG�FHOO�L�M��7ILVKL�M�FDQ�EH�FDOFXODWHG�IRU�YHVVHO�WULSV�ZKLFK�ODQG�DQ\�ILVK�RU�VKHOOILVK��RU�IRU�LQGLYLGXDO�VSHFLHV�ODQGHG��VXFK�DV�1HSKURSV��6FDOORSV��FRG�RU�KDGGRFN��7ILVKL�M�FDQ�DOVR�EH�FDOFXODWHG�HLWKHU�IRU�UDZ�906�GDWD��RU�IRU�LQWHUSRODWHG�GDWD��%RWK�DUH�XVHG�LQ�WKH�UHVXOWV�VHFWLRQ���)LQDO�906�'DWD�6HWV�±�/DQGLQJV��

Page 98: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

,W�VKRXOG�EH�QRWHG�WKDW�ODQGLQJV�FRXOG�EH�DOORFDWHG�WR�PRGHO�JULG�FHOOV�LI�DQ�DVVXPSWLRQ�LV�PDGH�WKDW�WKH�ODQGLQJV�RI�D�YHVVHO�LV�GLVWULEXWHG�DFURVV�LWV�ILVKLQJ�SLQJV�OLQHDUO\�SURSRUWLRQDO�WR�ILVKLQJ�WLPH��7KLV�KDV�QRW�\HW�EHHQ�GRQH�ZLWK�WKLV�GDWD�VHW���

���� 40B5HVXOWV�������� %DWK\PHWU\��7KH�LQWHUSRODWHG�EDWK\PHWU\�LV�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUH������)RU�WKLV�VHFWLRQ�D�VWDQGDUG�PDS�SURMHFWLRQ�LV�XVHG�WKURXJKRXW����

)LJXUH�����%DWK\PHWU\�GDWD�YDOXHV�LQWHUSRODWHG�RQWR�WKH�����[�����PDQDJHPHQW�HYDOXDWLRQ�JULG�XVLQJ�OLQHDU�LQWHUSRODWLRQ��

������� 'HSWK�'LVWULEXWLRQ��7KH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�GHSWK��E\�DUHD�LV�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUH������DQG�WDEXODWHG�EHORZ��

Page 99: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

��

'HSWK� $UHD� 3HUFHQWDJH�$UHD�

�� ������� ��������� ������� �������� ������� �������� ������� �������� ������� �������� ������� �������� ������� �������� ������ �������� ������ �������� ������ �������� ������ �������� ������ �������� ����� �������� ����� �������� ����� �������� ����� �������� ���� �������� ���� ����

��

��

)LJXUH�����'LVWULEXWLRQ�RI�GHSWK�E\�DUHD�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��

�3RWHQWLDO�0DHUO�+DELWDWV��2QH�XVH�VXFK�GDWD�FDQ�EH�SXW�WR�LV�WR�GHWHUPLQH�ZKDW�KDELWDWV�SRWHQWLDOO\�PDHUO�PLJKW�LQKDELW�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��+DOO�6SHQFHU��������VXJJHVWHG�WKDW�PDHUO�LV�ORFDWHG�EHWZHHQ�����P�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��8VLQJ�WKH�GHSWK�GLVWULEXWLRQ�VKRZQ�DERYH��LW�FDQ�EH�HVWLPDWHG�WKDW�WKHUH�LV�����NP��RI�

Page 100: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

VHD�EHG�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LQ�WKLV�GHSWK�UDQJH��L�H��DSSUR[LPDWHO\�����RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��7KH�PDMRULW\�RI�WKLV�OLHV�ZLWKLQ�WKH��QP�]RQH��VHH�EHORZ����������� 6SDWLDO�/LPLW�0DVNV���7KH�VSDWLDO�PDVNV�GHULYHG�IRU�WKH�GRPDLQV��QP���QP�DQG��QP�IURP�WKH�FRDVWOLQH�DUH�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUH�������

)LJXUH�����6SDWLDO�PDVNV�GHULYHG�IRU�WKH�GRPDLQV��QP���QP�DQG��QP�IURP�WKH�FRDVWOLQH��$OO�FRORXUHG�JULG�FHOOV�KDYH�D�YDOXH�RI����DOO�RWKHUV����

������� $UHDV�DQG�9ROXPHV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6SDWLDO�'RPDLQV��7KH�VSDWLDO�OLPLW�PDVNV��FRPELQHG�ZLWK�WKH�GDWD�JULG�RI�EDWK\PHWU\��SURYLGH�WKH�IROORZLQJ�GHWDLOV�FRQFHUQLQJ�WKH�&O\GH�0DQDJHPHQW�$UHD���

6SDWLDO�'RPDLQ�

6XUIDFH�$UHD���NP���

6XUIDFH�$UHD������

9ROXPH��

�NP���

0HDQ�'HSWK��P��

0D[���'HSWK��P��

0LQ��'HSWK��P��

1R��RI�9DOLG�*ULG�3RLQWV�

&O\GH�6HD� ����� ����� ���� ������ ���� �� �������&RDVW�WR���QP� ����� ���� ��� ������ ���� �� ������&RDVW�WR���QP� ����� ���� ��� ������ ���� �� ������&RDVW�WR���QP� ����� ���� ���� ������ ���� �� �������+HQFH�IURP�WKHVH�ILJXUHV�ZH�FDQ�VHH�WKDW��RI�WKH������NP��RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�����������DQG�����OLHV�ZLWKLQ���QP���QP�DQG��QP�IURP�WKH�FRDVW�UHVSHFWLYHO\��E\�DUHD����

Page 101: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

������ 6HGLPHQW�'LVWULEXWLRQ��65B7KH�JULGGHG�VHGLPHQW�W\SH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�LV�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUH����������

)LJXUH�����3ORW�VKRZLQJ�WKH�JULGGHG�VHGLPHQW�W\SH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��7KH�GHWDLOHG�VHGLPHQW�W\SHV�RI�)LJXUH�����KDYH�EHHQ�UHJURXSHG�LQWR�WKH�VLPSOHU�VHW�RI�JUDYHOV��VDQGV�DQG�PXGV��

Page 102: Clyde Ecosystem Review

���

�7KH�VHGLPHQW�W\SH�FRGHV��FRPELQHG�ZLWK�WKH�YDULRXV�GRPDLQ�PDVNV��SURYLGHG�WKH�IROORZLQJ�LQIRUPDWLRQ�DERXW�SHUFHQWDJH�DUHD�FRYHU�RI�HDFK�VHGLPHQW�W\SH���6HGLPHQW�7\SH� $OO�

&O\GH�6HD������

&RDVW�WR���QP�����

&RDVW�WR���QP�����

&RDVW�WR���QP�����

*06'� *UDYHOO\�0XGG\�6DQG� ���� ���� ���� ����*566� *UDYHO��6DQG�DQG�6LOW� ���� ���� ���� ����*9� *UDYHO� ���� ���� ���� ����*96'� � � � �*UDYHOO\�6DQG� ���� ���� ���� ����*90'� *UDYHOO\�0XG� ���� ���� ���� ����0'*9� 0XGG\�*UDYHO� ���� ���� ���� ����06*5� 0XGG\�6DQG\�*UDYHO� ���� ���� ���� ����08'� 0XG� ����� ���� ����� �����086'� 0XGG\�6DQG� ���� ���� ���� ����6'*9� 6DQG\�*UDYHO� ���� ���� ���� ����6'0'� 6DQG\�0XG� ����� ����� ����� �����6*06� 6OLJKWO\�*UDYHOO\�0XGG\�6DQG� ����� ����� ����� �����6*6$� 6OLJKWO\�*UDYHOO\�6DQG� ���� ���� ���� ����61'� 6DQG� ����� ����� ����� �����52&.� 5RFN� ���� ���� ���� �����,W�VKRXOG�EH�QRWHG�WKDW�WKH�VHGLPHQW�GDWD��FROOHFWHG�E\�YHVVHO�EDVHG�PHWKRGV�VXFK�DV�JUDE�VDPSOHV�DQG�DFRXVWLFV��GR�QRW�LQFOXGH�WKH�QHDU�VKRUH�VXE�WLGDO�OLWWRUDO�RU�LQWHU�WLGDO�]RQH��+HQFH�VRPH�VKRUHOLQH�URFN�DUHDV�DUH�QRW�LQFOXGHG���7KH�VHGLPHQWDU\�PDNH�XS�RI�WKH�WKUHH�VSDWLDO�OLPLWV��DQG�WKH�&O\GH�DV�D�ZKROH��GLIIHU�VOLJKWO\��7KLV�LV�VXPPDULVHG�LQ�)LJXUH������7KH�FRDVWOLQH�±��QP�]RQH�KDV�UHODWLYHO\�KLJKHU�SHUFHQWDJH�DUHDV�RI�VDQG�DQG�JUDYHO��DQG�OHVV�RI�PXG��WKDQ�WKH�UHVW�RI�WKH�&O\GH���

��

)LJXUH�����3HUFHQWDJH�DUHD�FRYHU�LQ�WKH�WKUHH�VSDWLDO�]RQHV���QP���QP�DQG��QP�IURP�WKH�FRDVWOLQH��DQG�WKH�&O\GH�DV�D�ZKROH��RI�WKH�VXPPDU\�VHGLPHQW�W\SHV��PXG��VDQG��JUDYHO�DQG�URFN��

Page 103: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

$QRWKHU�VXPPDU\�RI�WKLV�GDWD�LV�SUHVHQWHG�LQ�WDEOH�IRUP�EHORZ���

� *UDYHO� 6DQG� 0XG�6SDWLDO�'RPDLQ�

6XUIDFH�$UHD���NP���

���RI�&O\GH�7RWDO�

6XUIDFH�$UHD���NP���

���RI�&O\GH�7RWDO�

6XUIDFH�$UHD���NP���

���RI�&O\GH�7RWDO�

&O\GH�6HD� ���� ���� ����� ���� ���� ����&RDVW�WR���QP� ���� ��� ���� ��� ���� ���&RDVW�WR���QP� ���� ��� ����� ��� ���� ���&RDVW�WR���QP� ���� ��� ����� ��� ���� ����)URP�WKHVH�ILJXUHV�ZH�FDQ�VHH�WKDW����������DQG�����RI�DOO�&O\GH�JUDYHOO\��VDQG\�DQG�PXGG\�VHGLPHQWV��UHVSHFWLYHO\��OLH�ZLWKLQ��QP�IURP�WKH�FRDVW��6LPLODU�ILJXUHV�DUH�SUHVHQWHG�IRU�WKH��QP�DQG��QP�]RQHV���������� 67B)LVKLQJ�$FWLYLW\�±�5DZ�906��,Q�WRWDO��XVLQJ������906�DQG�),1�GDWD�����YHVVHOV�ZHUH�IRXQG�ZKLFK�ODQGHG�1HSKURSV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��DQG����ODQGHG�VFDOORSV��)LJXUH�����VKRZV�WKH�UDZ�906�GDWD�IRU�WKHVH�YHVVHOV��906�SLQJV�IURP�1HSKURSV�YHVVHOV�ZKLFK�DOVR�UHVXOWHG�LQ�ODQGLQJV�RI�FRG�DQG�KDGGRFN�DUH�DOVR�VKRZQ���

��

)LJXUH�����5DZ������906�SLQJV�DVVRFLDWHG�ZLWK�ODQGLQJV�RI�D��1HSKURSV��E��VFDOORSV��F��FRG�DQG�G��KDGGRFN��

�,Q�UHODWLRQ�WR�SRVVLEOH�VSDWLDO�PDQDJHPHQW�PHDVXUHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��D�VXPPDU\�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�RI�WKH�IROORZLQJ�W\SH�PD\�EH�RI�UHOHYDQFH����

Page 104: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

� +RXUV� 3HUFHQWDJH�$OO�

&O\GH�6HD�

�+RXUV��

&RDVW�WR�

��QP��+RXUV��

&RDVW�WR�

��QP��+RXUV��

&RDVW�WR�

��QP��+RXUV��

$OO�&O\GH�6HD�����

&RDVW�WR�

��QP�����

&RDVW�WR�

��QP�����

&RDVW�WR�

��QP�����

$//� ������� ������� ������� ������� ���� ��� ��� ���1(3� ������� ������� ������� ������� ���� ��� ��� ���6&/� ������ ���� ���� ������ ���� ��� ��� ���+$'� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ��� ��� ���&2'� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���� ��� ��� ����)URP�WKHVH�ILJXUHV�ZH�FDQ�VHH�WKDW�RI�WKH�WRWDO��������ILVKLQJ�KRXUV�WKDW�WRRN�SODFH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�LQ��������������KRXUV�������UHVXOWHG�LQ�D�ODQGLQJ�RI�1HSKURSV�������������KRXUV�ODQGHG�VFDOORSV�DQG�MXVW�����KRXUV�DQG����KRXUV�ODQGHG�KDGGRFN�RU�FRG�UHVSHFWLYHO\��PRVW�SUREDEO\�DV�E\�FDWFK�LQ�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\��+HQFH�WKH����ERDWV�ZKLFK�ODQGHG�1HSKURSV�IURP�WKH�&O\GH�LQ������VSHQW�RQ�DYHUDJH�����KRXUV�ILVKLQJ�WKURXJK�WKH�\HDU��DQG�WKH����VFDOORS�YHVVHOV�VSHQW��RQ�DYHUDJH������KRXUV���,Q�WHUPV�RI�ZKHUH�ILVKLQJ�WDNHV�SODFH��RI�WKH�WRWDO��������ILVKLQJ�KRXUV�RI�����������RFFXUUHG�ZLWKLQ���QP�IURP�D�FRDVWOLQH������ZLWKLQ���QP�DQG�����ZLWKLQ���QP��7KHUHIRUH�����RI�WKH�WRWDO�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�RFFXUUHG�RXWZLWK���QP�IURP�D�FRDVW��7KLV�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�LV�YLUWXDOO\�LGHQWLFDO�IRU�ILVKLQJ�ZKLFK�ODQGHG�1HSKURSV��ZKLOH�LW�LV�GLIIHUHQW�IRU�ILVKLQJ�ZKLFK�ODQGHG�VFDOORSV��+HUH�����������DQG�����RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�RFFXUUHG���QP����QP�DQG���QP�IURP�D�FRDVW�ZLWKLQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD���������� )LVKLQJ�$FWLYLW\�±�,QWHUSRODWHG�0DSV��7KH�LQWHUSRODWHG�906�GDWD�KDYH�EHHQ�XVHG�LQ�RUGHU�PDS�WKH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LQ�������7KH�UHVXOWLQJ�GLVWULEXWLRQV�DUH�VKRZQ�LQ�)LJXUHV������DQG�������

Page 105: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

)LJXUH������7KH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LQ������EDVHG�RQ�WKH�QXPEHU�RI�LQWHUSRODWHG�SLQJV�IURP�YHVVHOV�EHOLHYHG�WR�EH�ILVKLQJ��L�H��VSHHG�RI�YHVVHO�EHWZHHQ���DQG���NQRWV��LQ�HDFK�PRGHO�JULG�FHOO�IRU��OHIW��YHVVHO�WULSV�ZKLFK�ODQGHG�1HSKURSV�DQG��ULJKW��VFDOORSV��

)LJXUH������7KH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�LQ������EDVHG�RQ�WKH�QXPEHU�RI�LQWHUSRODWHG�SLQJV�IURP�YHVVHOV�EHOLHYHG�WR�EH�ILVKLQJ��L�H��VSHHG�RI�YHVVHO�EHWZHHQ���DQG���NQRWV��LQ�HDFK�PRGHO�JULG�FHOO�IRU��OHIW��YHVVHO�WULSV�ZKLFK�ODQGHG�FRG�DQG��ULJKW��KDGGRFN��

Page 106: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

�,W�LV�FOHDU�IURP�WKH�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�PDSV�WKDW�LW�LV�JRYHUQHG�E\�WKH�KDELWDW�W\SHV�ZKLFK�IDYRXU�WKH�GLIIHUHQW�VSHFLHV��%RDWV�ODQGLQJ�1HSKURSV�SULQFLSDOO\�WDUJHW�WKH�DUHDV�ZKHUH�PXGG\�VHGLPHQWV�SUHGRPLQDWH��SULQFLSDOO\�WKH�GHHS�EDVLQV�RI�WKH�&O\GH��ZKHUHDV�YHVVHOV�ODQGLQJ�VFDOORSV�WDUJHW�WKH�KDUGHU�VHGLPHQWV�IRXQG�DURXQG�WKH�VKDOORZHU�SHULSKHU\�RI�WKH�&O\GH�DV�ZHOO�DV�RQ�WKH�*UHDW�3ODWHDX��7KH�WDEOH�EHORZ�FRPSDUHV�WKH�SHUFHQWDJH�RI�HDFK�VHGLPHQW�W\SH�WR�WKH�SHUFHQWDJH�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�LQ�HDFK�RI�WKH�VSDWLDO�]RQHV���

�6SDWLDO�'RPDLQ�

*UDYHO� 6DQG� 6FDOORSV� 0XG� Nephrops���

�RI�&O\GH�7RWDO�

���RI�&O\GH�7RWDO�

��RI�

)LVKLQJ�$FWLYLW\�

���RI�&O\GH�7RWDO�

��RI�

)LVKLQJ�$FWLYLW\�

&RDVW�WR���QP� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���&RDVW�WR���QP� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���&RDVW�WR���QP� ��� ��� ��� ��� ���

�)RU�1HSKURSV�WKH�SHUFHQWDJHV�RI�PXGG\�VHGLPHQW�DQG�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�ZLWKLQ�WKH�WKUHH�VSDWLDO�]RQHV�RI��QP���QP�DQG��QP�DUH�FRPSDUDEOH��+RZHYHU��IRU�VFDOORSV�WKH�SHUFHQWDJH�RI�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�RXWZLWK�WKH��QP�]RQH�VHHPV�H[FHVVLYHO\�ODUJH��7KLV�PXVW�WDNH�SODFH�SUHGRPLQDQWO\�RQ�WKH�3ODWHDX��)XUWKHU�LQYHVWLJDWLRQV�RI�WKLV�DQRPDO\�DUH�XQGHUZD\���������� &RQFOXGLQJ�5HPDUNV��7KH�DQDO\VLV�RI�906�GDWD��LQ�FRQMXQFWLRQ�ZLWK�WKH�RWKHU�GDWD�OD\HUV�LQ�WKH�&0(0�GDWDEDVHV��VKRZV�KRZ�XVHIXO�WKLV�GDWD�FDQ�EH�WR�GHVFULEH�WKH�FXUUHQW�ILVKLQJ�SUDFWLFHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�DQG�WR�HYDOXDWH�GLIIHUHQW�PDQDJHPHQW�RSWLRQV��+RZHYHU��PRUH�FDQ�EH�GRQH���,W�LV�SRVVLEOH�WR�OLQN�DFWXDO�ODQGLQJV�WR�906�SLQJV�LI�LW�LV�DVVXPHG�HDFK�FDWFK�LV�HYHQO\�GLVWULEXWHG�DORQJ�WKH�YHVVHOV�ILVKLQJ�SDWK��7KLV�ZRXOG�DOORZ�VXPPDULHV�DV�DERYH�IRU�VSDWLDO�PHDVXUHV�LQ�WHUPV�RI�ZHLJKW��DQG�KHQFH�YDOXH��RI�ODQGLQJV�SHU�VSHFLHV�SHU�PDQDJHPHQW�DUHD���+HUH�ZH�KDYH�DQDO\VHG�WKH�\HDU������DV�WKH�PRVW�UHFHQW�IXOO�\HDU�RI�GDWD�DYDLODEOH�WR�WKLV�VWXG\��+RZHYHU��HDUOLHU�\HDUV�DQG�WKH�PRUH�UHFHQW�GDWD�FDQ�EH�DGGHG�WR�ORRN�DW�FKDQJHV�RYHU�WLPH��6LPLODUO\�VHDVRQDO�SDWWHUQV�RI�ILVKLQJ�FRXOG�EH�H[DPLQHG���6LPSOH�VSDWLDO�PHDVXUHV�LQYROYLQJ�VHW�GLVWDQFHV�IURP�WKH�VKRUH�KDYH�EHHQ�H[DPLQHG�KHUH��+RZHYHU��&0(0�FRXOG�EH�XVHG�WR�GHYHORS�PRUH�FRPSOH[�VSDWLDO�PDQDJHPHQW�PHDVXUHV�EDVHG�RQ��IRU�H[DPSOH��KDELWDW�W\SH��7HPSRUDO�FORVXUHV�FRXOG�DOVR�EH�H[DPLQHG�LQ�DGGLWLRQ�WR�VSDWLDO�RQHV���$�ZDUQLQJ�VKRXOG��KRZHYHU��EH�VRXQGHG��7KH�HIIHFWV�RI�WKH�GLVSODFHPHQW�RI�ILVKLQJ�KDYH�QRW�EHHQ�WRXFKHG�XSRQ�KHUH��)LVKHUV�EHKDYLRXU�IDFHG�ZLWK�FORVXUHV�QHHGV�WR�EH�FRQVLGHUHG��DQG�WKH�LPSDFW�RI�GLVSODFHG�ILVKLQJ�HIIRUW�RQ�RWKHU�DUHDV�DQG�KDELWDWV�HYDOXDWHG���7KH�DQDO\VLV�SUHVHQWHG�KHUH�RQO\�XVHV�GDWD�IURP�WKRVH�YHVVHOV�ZLWK�906�V\VWHPV�LQVWDOOHG��L�H��!��P�LQ�OHQJWK��'DWD�IURP�VPDOOHU�YHVVHOV�QHHGV�WR�EH�FROOHFWHG�DQG�DQDO\VHG�XVLQJ�&0(0���������� 6XJJHVWHG�)XUWKHU�:RUN��

Page 107: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

&0(0�QHHGV�WR�EH�IXUWKHU�GHYHORSHG��'DWD�VHWV�RI�KDELWDW�W\SH�FDQ�EH�LPSURYHG�XVLQJ�ILQHU�VFDOH�VXUYH\V��DQG�DGGLWLRQDO�HQYLURQPHQWDO�SDUDPHWHUV�VXFK�DV�VHD�EHG�WHPSHUDWXUH�DQG�VHD�EHG�ZDWHU�IORZ�FRXOG�EH�DGGHG��0RUH�\HDUV�RI�906�GDWD�QHHG�WR�EH�LQFOXGHG��6HDVRQDO�SDWWHUQV�RI�ILVKLQJ�FDQ�EH�H[DPLQHG��/DQGLQJV��E\�VSHFLHV�DQG�JHDU�W\SH��IURP�HDFK�JULG�VTXDUH��DV�ZHOO�DV�YDOXH�RI�ODQGLQJV��FDQ�EH�HVWLPDWHG�XVLQJ�YDULRXV�PHWKRGV�GHYHORSHG�DW�066��$�JODULQJ�ODFN�FXUUHQWO\�LV�LQIRUPDWLRQ�RQ�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�E\�FUHHO�ERDWV��DV�ZHOO�DV�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLW\�E\�DOO�YHVVHOV�VPDOOHU�WKDQ���P��7KLV�FRXOG�EH�SURYLGHG�E\�DQ�LQWHUYLHZ�EDVHG�GDWD�JDWKHULQJ�H[HUFLVH��H�J��6FRW0DS��$�0F/D\�SHUV��FRPP���������

Page 108: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

����� %LEOLRJUDSK\� ��$GDPV�-�$����������=RRSODQNWRQ�LQYHVWLJDWLRQV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK����%�����������$GH\��-�0����������$VSHFWV�RI�WKH�VXVWDLQDELOLW\�RI�FUHHO�ILVKLQJ�IRU�1RUZD\�OREVWHU��1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV��/�����RQ�WKH�ZHVW�FRDVW�RI�6FRWODQG��3K'�WKHVLV���$NLPD��+����������$�0HWKRG�RI�%LYDULDWH�,QWHUSRODWLRQ�DQG�6PRRWK�6XUIDFH�)LWWLQJ�IRU�,UUHJXODUO\�'LVWULEXWHG�'DWD�3RLQWV��$&0�7UDQV��0DWK��6RIWZ�������������������$OHPDQ\��)��DQG�$OYDUH]��)����������'HWHUPLQDWLRQ�RI�HIIHFWLYH�HIIRUW�RQ�KDNH�0HUOXFFLXV�PHUOXFFLXV�LQ�D�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�WUDZO�ILVKHU\��6FLHQWLD�0DULQD��9RO�����1R����$OOHQ��-�$����������0ROOXVFD��)DXQD�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD��6FRWWLVK�0DULQH�%LRORJLFDO�$VVRFLDWLRQ���$PRULP�$�/����������$�VWXG\�RI�WKH�SK\WRSODQNWRQ�G\QDPLFV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��3K'�WKHVLV��8QLYHUVLW\�RI�/RQGRQ��$VKWRQ��*���%RRV��.���6KXFNVPLWK��5��DQG�&RRN��(����������5DSLG�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�WKH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�PDULQH�QRQ�QDWLYH�VSHFLHV�LQ�PDULQDV�LQ�6FRWODQG��$TXDWLF�,QYDVLRQV�9RO����,VVXH�������������%DJHQDO��7�%����������7KH�IHFXQGLW\�RI�ORQJ�URXJK�GDEV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��-RXUQDO�RI�WKH�0DULQH�%LRORJLFDO�$VVRFLDWLRQ�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�.LQJGRP�����������%DLOH\��1���)��*��+RZDUG��DQG�&KDSPDQ��&�-����������&O\GH�1HSKURSV��ELRORJ\�DQG�ILVKHULHV��3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK���%������������%DUEHUD��&���&��%RUGHKRUH��HW�DO����������&RQVHUYDWLRQ�DQG�PDQDJHPHQW�RI�QRUWKHDVW�$WODQWLF�DQG�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�PDHUO�EHGV��$TXDWLF�&RQVHUYDWLRQ��0DULQH�DQG�)UHVKZDWHU�(FRV\VWHPV����6����6���6�����%DUQH��-�+��5REVRQ��&�)��.D]QRZVND��6�6��'RRG\��-�3�'DYLGVRQ��1�&��DQG�%XFN��$�/����������&RDVWV�DQG�VHDV�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�.LQJGRP��-RLQW�1DWXUH�&RQVHUYDWLRQ�&RPPLWWHH���%D[WHU��-�0���%R\G��,�/���&R[��0���&XQQLQJKDP��/���+ROPHV��3���0RIIDW��&�)���(GLWRUV�����������6FRWODQGV�6HDV��7RZDUGV�8QGHUVWDQGLQJ�WKHLU�6WDWH��)LVKHULHV�5HVHDUFK�6HUYLFHV��$EHUGHHQ��SS��������%D[WHU��-�0���%R\G��,�/���&R[��0���'RQDOG��$�(���0DOFROP��6�-���0LOHV��+���0LOOHU��%���0RIIDW��&�)����(GLWRUV�����������6FRWODQGV�0DULQH�$WODV��,QIRUPDWLRQ�IRU�WKH�QDWLRQDO�PDULQH�SODQ��0DULQH�6FRWODQG��(GLQEXUJK��SS�������%HUJPDQQ��0��DQG�3��*��0RRUH���������0RUWDOLW\�RI�$VWHULDV�UXEHQV�DQG�2SKLXUD�RSKLXUD�GLVFDUGHG�LQ�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��6FRWODQG��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH������������������%HUJPDQQ��0��DQG�3��*��0RRUH���������6XUYLYDO�RI�GHFDSRG�FUXVWDFHDQV�GLVFDUGHG�LQ�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��6FRWODQG��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH������������������

Page 109: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

%HUJPDQQ��0���'��-��%HDUH��HW�DO����������'DPDJH�VXVWDLQHG�E\�HSLEHQWKLF�LQYHUWHEUDWHV�GLVFDUGHG�LQ�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��6FRWODQG��-RXUQDO�RI�6HD�5HVHDUFK������������������%HUJPDQQ��0���6��.��:LHF]RUHN��HW�DO����������'LVFDUG�FRPSRVLWLRQ�RI�WKH�1HSKURSV�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��6FRWODQG��)LVKHULHV�5HVHDUFK������������������%*6�6HD=RQH������D���%DWK\PHWU\�±�'&%�DQG�'6%�±�VHH��KWWS���ZZZ�VHD]RQH�FRP�LQGH[�SKS�'6%��7UX'HSWK���LV�DOVR�DYDLODEOH�IURP�6HD=RQH��KWWS���ZZZ�VHD]RQH�FRP�GDWD7UXGHSWKJULGV�SKS��%*6�6HD=RQH������E���6HGLPHQW�GDWD���'LJ6%6�GDWDVHW�KHOG�XQGHU�OLFHQFH�IURP�6HD=RQH��KWWS���ZZZ�VHD]RQH�FRP�LQGH[�SKS��%,20$(5/�7HDP���������&RQVHUYDWLRQ�DQG�PDQDJHPHQW�RI�QRUWKHDVW�$WODQWLF�DQG�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�PDHUO�EHGV��$TXDWLF�&RQVHUYDWLRQ��0DULQH�DQG�)UHVKZDWHU�(FRV\VWHPV����������������%LUNHWW�'�$���0DJJV�&�$���'ULQJ�0�-����������$Q�2YHUYLHZ�RI�'\QDPLF�DQG�6HQVLWLYLW\�&KDUDFWHULVWLFV�IRU�&RQVHUYDWLRQ�0DQDJHPHQW�RI�0DULQH�6$&V��YRO�����0DHUO��>8.�0DULQH�6$&V�3URMHFW@��6FRWWLVK�$VVRFLDWLRQ�IRU�0DULQH�6FLHQFH��6FRWODQG������SS���%RFN��0��7���%��6��0LOOHU��HW�DO����������$VVHVVPHQW�RI�HXWURSKLFDWLRQ�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��$QDO\VLV�RI�FRDVWDO�ZDWHU�GDWD�IURP������WR�������0DULQH�3ROOXWLRQ�%XOOHWLQ������������������%UDGVKDZ��&���/��9HDOH��HW�DO����������7KH�HIIHFW�RI�VFDOORS�GUHGJLQJ�RQ�,ULVK�6HD�EHQWKRV��H[SHULPHQWV�XVLQJ�D�FORVHG�DUHD��+\GURELRORJLD�������������������%UHHQ��0���7��+RZHOO�DQG�3��&RSODQG���������$�UHSRUW�RQ�HOHFWULFDO�ILVKLQJ�IRU�UD]RU�FODPV��(QVLV�VS����DQG�LWV�OLNHO\�HIIHFWV�RQ�WKH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQW��0DULQH�6FRWODQG�6FLHQFH�5HSRUW��1R����������%ULJJV��5��3���5��-��$��$WNLQVRQ��HW�DO����������+LVWULREGHOOD�KRPDUL�RQ�1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV�IURP�WKH�,ULVK�6HD�DQG�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��-RXUQDO�RI�WKH�0DULQH�%LRORJLFDO�$VVRFLDWLRQ�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�.LQJGRP������������������&DPSEHOO��1���/��$OODQ��HW�DO����������,QYHVWLJDWLQJ�WKH�OLQN�EHWZHHQ�1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV�EXUURZ�GHQVLW\�DQG�VHGLPHQW�FRPSRVLWLRQ�LQ�6FRWWLVK�ZDWHUV��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH���������������������&DPSEHOO��1���+��'REE\��HW�DO����������,QYHVWLJDWLQJ�DQG�PLWLJDWLQJ�XQFHUWDLQWLHV�LQ�WKH�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�6FRWWLVK�1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV�SRSXODWLRQV�XVLQJ�VLPXODWHG�XQGHUZDWHU�WHOHYLVLRQ�GDWD��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH�������������������&DWFKSROH��7��/���&��/��-��)ULG��HW�DO����������'LVFDUGV�LQ�1RUWK�6HD�ILVKHULHV��FDXVHV��FRQVHTXHQFHV�DQG�VROXWLRQV��0DULQH�3ROLF\�������������������&KDSPDQ��&��-���DQG�%DLOH\��1����������%LRORJLFDO�UHVHDUFK�RQ�ILVK�DQG�VKHOOILVK�VWRFNV��5HFHQW�SURJUHVV�LQ�1RUZD\�OREVWHU�UHVHDUFK��,Q�'HYHORSPHQWV�LQ�ILVKHULHV�UHVHDUFK�LQ�6FRWODQG��SS����±�����(G��E\�5��6��%DLOH\�DQG�%��%��3DUULVK��)LVKLQJ�1HZV�%RRNV�/WG��)DUQKDP��(QJODQG���&KHUHW��<���+��)DUUXJLR��$��-DGDXG��3��/HVSDJQRO���&��0HOORQ��0��*D]D��(��0DVVXWt��*��3RPDU��3��3HUHGD�DQG�-��/OHRQDUW����������6WRFN�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�WKH�)UHQFK�6SDQLVK�VKDUHG�

Page 110: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

VWRFN�RI�KDNH��0HUOXFFLXV�PHUOXFFLXV��LQ�WKH�JXOI�RI�/LRQV��:RUNLQJ�'RFXPHQW�1����WR�WKH�*)&0�6$&�:RUNLQJ�*URXS�RQ�WKH�$VVHVVPHQW�RI�'HPHUVDO�6WRFNV�5RPH�����SS���&KULVWHQVHQ��9���6��*XpQHWWH��HW�DO����������+XQGUHG�\HDU�GHFOLQH�RI�1RUWK�$WODQWLF�SUHGDWRU\�ILVKHV��)LVK�DQG�)LVKHULHV���������������&KXPOH\��-����������7KH�IDXQD�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��EHLQJ�DQ�DWWHPSW�WR�UHFRUG�WKH�]RRORJLFDO�UHVXOWV�REWDLQHG�E\�WKH�ODWH�6LU�-RKQ�0XUUD\�DQG�KLV�DVVLVWDQW�RQ�ERDUG�WKH�6�<��0HGXVD�GXULQJ�WKH�\HDUV����������������SS���&ODUN��5�%����������)DXQD�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��6FRWWLVK�0DULQH�%LRORJLFDO�$VVRFLDWLRQ��&ODUN��*��DQG�7RSSLQJ��*����������0HUFXU\�&RQFHQWUDWLRQV�LQ�)LVK�)URP�&RQWDPLQDWHG�$UHDV�LQ�6FRWWLVK�:DWHUV��-RXUQDO�RI�WKH�0DULQH�%LRORJLFDO�$VVRFLDWLRQ�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�.LQJGRP����������������&RJJDQ��5���&��6PLWK��HW�DO����������&RPSDULVRQ�RI�UDSLG�PHWKRGRORJLHV�IRU�TXDQWLI\LQJ�HQYLURQPHQWDO�LPSDFWV�RI�RWWHU�WUDZOV��'*�;,9�6WXG\�3URMHFW���&ROOLH��-��6���*��$��(VFDQHUR��HW�DO����������3KRWRJUDSKLF�HYDOXDWLRQ�RI�WKH�LPSDFWV�RI�ERWWRP�ILVKLQJ�RQ�EHQWKLF�HSLIDXQD��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH���������������&RQQRU��'����������0DULQH�1DWXUH�&RQVHUYDWLRQ�5HYLHZ�6XUYH\�RI�/RFK�7DUEHW��-XUD��1DWXUH�&RQVHUYDQF\�&RXQFLO��3HWHUERURXJK��8QLWHG�.LQJGRP����&UDLJ��5�(����������+\GURJUDSK\�RI�6FRWWLVK�&RDVWDO�:DWHUV��+�0�6�2��(GLQEXUJK����&XUULH��'��DQG�*��3DUU\���������(IIHFWV�RI�VFDOORS�GUHGJLQJ�RQ�D�VRIW�VHGLPHQW�FRPPXQLW\��D�ODUJH�VFDOH�H[SHULPHQWDO�VWXG\��0DULQH�(FRORJ\�3URJUHVV�6HULHV����������������'DVNDORY��*��0����������2YHUILVKLQJ�GULYHV�DWURSKLF�FDVFDGH�LQ�WKH�%ODFN�6HD��0DULQH�(FRORJ\�3URJUHVV�6HULHV���������������'DYLGVRQ��.���0LOOHU��3���:LOGLQJ��$�7���6KXWOHU��-���%UHVQDQ��(���.HQQLQJWRQ��.��DQG�6ZDQ��6����������$�ODUJH�DQG�SURORQJHG�EORRP�RI�.DUHQLD�PLNLPRWRL�LQ�6FRWWLVK�ZDWHUV�LQ�������+DUPIXO�DOJDH��YRO���������������'DYLVRQ��'�0�����������$Q�HVWLPDWLRQ�RI�WKH�WRWDO�QXPEHU�RI�PDULQH�VSHFLHV�WKDW�RFFXU�LQ�6FRWWLVK�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV��6FRWWLVK�1DWXUDO�+HULWDJH�5HYLHZ�1R�����6FRWWLVK�1DWLRQDO�+HULWDJH��(GLQEXUJK��SS������'HIUD���������&KDUWLQJ�3URJUHVV����7KH�6WDWH�RI�8.�6HDV��KWWS���FKDUWLQJSURJUHVV�GHIUD�JRY�XN���'RQQHOO\��-�(���7KRPSVRQ��.��DQG�5RVV��'����������)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�0DULQH�6SDWLDO�3ODQ��6FRWWLVK�6XVWDLQDEOH�0DULQH�(QYLURQPHQW�,QLWLDWLYH���'RROH\��+��'����������)DFWRUV�LQIOXHQFLQJ�ZDWHU�PRYHPHQWV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��(VWXDULQH�DQG�&RDVWDO�0DULQH�6FLHQFH�����������������'ULQNZDWHU��.��)����������7KH�UHVSRQVH�RI�$WODQWLF�FRG��*DGXV�PRUKXD���WR�IXWXUH�FOLPDWH�FKDQJH��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH���������������������'XQQHW��*���5��)XUQHVV��HW�DO����������6HDELUG�HFRORJ\�LQ�WKH�1RUWK�6HD��1HWKHUODQGV�-RXUQDO�RI�6HD�5HVHDUFK��������������������

Page 111: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

�(GJDU��3��-���$��6��+XUVWKRXVH��HW�DO����������$Q�LQYHVWLJDWLRQ�RI�JHRFKHPLFDO�IDFWRUV�FRQWUROOLQJ�WKH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�3&%V�LQ�LQWHUWLGDO�VHGLPHQWV�DW�D�FRQWDPLQDWLRQ�KRW�VSRW��WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\��8.��$SSOLHG�*HRFKHPLVWU\�������������������(GJDU��3��-���$��6��+XUVWKRXVH��HW�DO����������6HGLPHQW�LQIOXHQFH�RQ�FRQJHQHU�VSHFLILF�3&%�ELRDFFXPXODWLRQ�E\�0\WLOXV�HGXOLV��D�FDVH�VWXG\�IURP�DQ�LQWHUWLGDO�KRW�VSRW��&O\GH�(VWXDU\��8.��-RXUQDO�RI�(QYLURQPHQWDO�0RQLWRULQJ�����������������(GZDUGV��$���%D[WHU��0�6���(OOHWW��'�-���0DUWLQ��-�+�$���0HOGUXP��'�7���*ULIILWKV��&�5����������&O\GH�6HD�K\GURJUDSK\��3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK����%����±�����(GZDUGV��0��DQG�$��-��5LFKDUGVRQ���������,PSDFW�RI�FOLPDWH�FKDQJH�RQ�PDULQH�SHODJLF�SKHQRORJ\�DQG�WURSKLF�PLVPDWFK��1DWXUH����������������������(OHIWKHULRX�$��DQG�0F,QW\UH��$�'�����������7KH�LQWHUWLGDO�IDXQD�RI�VDQG\�EHDFKHV²D�VXUYH\�RI�WKH�6FRWWLVK�FRDVW��6FRWWLVK�)LVKHULHV�5HVHDUFK�5HSRUW����SS���±�����)DQVKDZH��7���(YHUDUG��0��0D\��������7KH�LPSDFWV�RI�PDULQH�OLWWHU��0DULQH�3ROOXWLRQ�0RQLWRULQJ�*URXS��5HSRUW�2I�7KH�PDULQH�OLWWHU�WDVN�WHDP��0D/L77����)LHOGV��3��$���-��%��*UDKDP��HW�DO����������(IIHFWV�RI�H[SHFWHG�JOREDO�FOLPDWH�FKDQJH�RQ�PDULQH�IDXQDV��7UHQGV�LQ�(FRORJ\�DQG�(YROXWLRQ�������������������)HUQDQGHV��(OHIWKHULRX��HW�DO����������7KH�VFLHQWLILF�SULQFLSOHV�XQGHUO\LQJ�WKH�PRQLWRULQJ�RI�WKH�HQYLURQPHQWDO�LPSDFWV�RI�DTXDFXOWXUH��-RXUQDO�RI�$SSOLHG�,FKWK\RORJ\�������������������*DPEOH��-�&����������:KLWLQJ�RI�WKH�,ULVK�6HD�DQG�WKH�&O\GH��0LQLVWU\�RI�$JULFXOWXUH��)LVKHULHV�DQG�)RRG��)LVKHU\�,QYHVWLJDWLRQV��6HULHV����9RO������QR�����*DUWKH��6���.��&DPSKX\VHQ��HW�DO����������$PRXQWV�RI�GLVFDUGV�E\�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVKHULHV�DQG�WKHLU�VLJQLILFDQFH�DV�IRRG�IRU�VHDELUGV�LQ�WKH�1RUWK�6HD��0DULQH�(FRORJ\�3URJUHVV�6HULHV��������������*RUGRQ��-�'�0��DQG�GH�6LOYD��6�6����������7KH�ILVK�SRSXODWLRQV�RI�WKH�:HVW�RI�6FRWODQG�6KHOI��3DUW�,��2FHDQRJUDSKLF�0DULQH�%LRORJ\�$QQXDO�5HYLHZ���������������*RUGRQ��-�'�0����������7KH�ILVK�SRSXODWLRQV�RI�WKH�:HVW�RI�6FRWODQG�6KHOI��3DUW�,,��2FHDQRJUDSKLF�0DULQH�%LRORJ\�$QQXDO�5HYLHZ����������������*URHQHZROG��6��DQG�0��)RQGV���������(IIHFWV�RQ�EHQWKLF�VFDYHQJHUV�RI�GLVFDUGV�DQG�GDPDJHG�EHQWKRV�SURGXFHG�E\�WKH�EHDP�WUDZO�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�VRXWKHUQ�1RUWK�6HD��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH��-RXUQDO�GX�&RQVHLO����������������*UDOO��-���)��/H�/RFK��HW�DO����������&RPPXQLW\�VWUXFWXUH�DQG�IRRG�ZHE�EDVHG�RQ�VWDEOH�LVRWRSHV��>GHOWD@��1�DQG�>GHOWD@��&���DQDO\VLV�RI�D�1RUWK�(DVWHUQ�$WODQWLF�PDHUO�EHG��-RXUQDO�RI�([SHULPHQWDO�0DULQH�%LRORJ\�DQG�(FRORJ\�����������������+DLJ��$�-�1����������8VH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\�DQG�)LUWK�IRU�WKH�GLVSRVDO�RI�HIIOXHQWV��3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK����%����+DOOLGD\��5��*����������5DUH�ILVKHV�IURP�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��-RXUQDO�RI�1DWXUDO�+LVWRU\�����������������

Page 112: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

+DOO�6SHQFHU��-��0����������7KH�HIIHFWV�RI�VFDOORS�GUHGLQJ�RQ�PDHUO�EHGV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��3RUFXSLQH�1HZVOHWWHU����������������+DOO�6SHQFHU��-�0����������%DQ�RQ�PDHUO�H[WUDFWLRQ��0DULQH�3ROOXWLRQ�%XOOHWLQ�������������������+DOO�6SHQFHU�-�0��DQG�0RRUH��3�*����������6FDOORS�GUHGJLQJ�KDV�SURIRXQG��ORQJ�WHUP�LPSDFWV�RQ�PDHUO�KDELWDWV��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH������+DOO�6SHQFHU��-��0���-��*UDOO��HW�DO����������%LYDOYH�ILVKLQJ�DQG�PDHUO�EHG�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�LQ�)UDQFH�DQG�WKH�8.���UHWURVSHFW�DQG�SURVSHFW��$TXDWLF�&RQVHUYDWLRQ�0DULQH�DQG�)UHVKZDWHU�(FRV\VWHPV�����6���6�����+DOO�6SHQFHU��-���1��:KLWH��HW�DO����������,PSDFW�RI�ILVK�IDUPV�RQ�PDHUO�EHGV�LQ�VWURQJO\�WLGDO�DUHDV��0DULQH�(FRORJ\�3URJUHVV�6HULHV������������+DOO�6SHQFHU��-���1��:KLWH��HW�DO����������,PSDFW�RI�ILVK�IDUPV�RQ�PDHUO�EHGV�LQ�VWURQJO\�WLGDO�DUHDV��0DULQH�(FRORJ\�3URJUHVV�6HULHV�������������+DPLOWRQ��/��&���5��/��+DHGULFK��HW�DO����������$ERYH�DQG�%HORZ�WKH�:DWHU��6RFLDO�(FRORJLFDO�7UDQVIRUPDWLRQ�LQ�1RUWKZHVW�1HZIRXQGODQG��3RSXODWLRQ�DQG�(QYLURQPHQW������������������+DWILHOG��(��0�&��1DVK��5�'�0���=LPPHUPDQQ��&���6FK|Q��3�-���.HOO\��&���'LFNH\�&ROODV���0���0DF.HQ]LH��.���&URVV��7�)���*HIIHQ��$�-��&KXEE��-�&���&ROOLQV��&�0���:DWWV��3�&���-DQVHQ��6���2/HDU\��'�%���&URVV��0�$���&DPSEHOO��1���=XXU��$�)���&XQQLQJKDP��&�2���-�UJHQ�6����������7KH�VFLHQWLILF�LPSOLFDWLRQV�RI�WKH�(8�3URMHFW�:(67+(5��4�56��������±���������WR�WKH�DVVHVVPHQW�DQG�PDQDJHPHQW�RI�WKH�KHUULQJ�VWRFNV�WR�WKH�ZHVW�RI�WKH�%ULWLVK�,VOHV��,&(6�&0������/�����+DXWRQ��&���5��$WNLQVRQ��HW�DO����������7KH�LPSDFW�RI�K\GUDXOLF�EODGH�GUHGJLQJ�RQ�D�EHQWKLF�PHJDIDXQDO�FRPPXQLW\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��6FRWODQG��-RXUQDO�RI�6HD�5HVHDUFK����������������+HDWK��0�5��DQG�'�&��6SHLUV���������&KDQJHV�LQ�VSHFLHV�GLYHUVLW\�DQG�VL]H�FRPSRVLWLRQ�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�GHPHUVDO�ILVK�FRPPXQLW\��������������3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\��%��GRL����������UVSE�������������+LQW]HQ��1�7���3LHW��*�-��DQG�%UXQHO��7����������,PSURYHG�HVWLPDWLRQ�RI�WUDZOLQJ�WUDFNV�XVLQJ�FXELF�+HUPLWH�VSOLQH�LQWHUSRODWLRQ�RI�SRVLWLRQ�UHJLVWUDWLRQ�GDWD��)LVKHULHV�5HVHDUFK��9ROXPH������3DJHV�����������+LVFRFN��.��DQG�%UHFNOHV��0��������0DULQH�%LRGLYHUVLW\�+RWVSRWV�LQ�8.��D�UHSRUW�LGHQWLI\LQJ�DQG�SURWHFWLQJ�DUHDV�IRU�PDULQH�ELRGLYHUVLW\��7KH�0DULQH�%LRORJLFDO�$VVRFLDWLRQ��3O\PRXWK��8.����+LVORS��-����������7KH�GHPHUVDO�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK�6HFWLRQ�%��%LRORJLFDO�6FLHQFHV��������������+ROODQG��'��6�����������0DQDJHPHQW�6WUDWHJ\�(YDOXDWLRQ�DQG�0DQDJHPHQW�3URFHGXUHV��7RROV�IRU�5HEXLOGLQJ�DQG�6XVWDLQLQJ�)LVKHULHV��2(&'�)RRG��$JULFXOWXUH�DQG�)LVKHULHV�:RUNLQJ�3DSHUV��1R������2(&'�3XEOLVKLQJ��+XQW��*��/���5��:��)XUQHVV��HW�DO����������6HDELUG�ILVK�LQWHUDFWLRQV��ZLWK�SDUWLFXODU�UHIHUHQFH�WR�VHDELUGV�LQ�WKH�1RUWK�6HD��&RSHQKDJHQ��'HQPDUN��,QWHUQDWLRQDO�&RXQFLO�IRU�WKH�([SORUDWLRQ�RI�WKH�6HD��

Page 113: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

�+XJKHV��'�-����������6HD�SHQV��EURZVLQJ�PHJDIDXQD��9ROXPH�,,,���$Q�RYHUYLHZ�RI�G\QDPLF�DQG�VHQVLWLYLW\�FKDUDFWHULVWLFV�IRU�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�PDQDJHPHQW�RI�PDULQH�6$&V��6FRWWLVK�$VVRFLDWLRQ�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH���8.�0DULQH�6$&V�3URMHFW�������SDJHV���+XJKHV��'��DQG�1LFNHOO�7����������5HFRYHULQJ�6FRWODQG¶V�0DULQH�(QYLURQPHQW��6FRWWLVK�$VVRFLDWLRQ�IRU�0DULQH�6FLHQFH�,QWHUQDO�5HSRUW�1R��������+XUVWKRXVH��$��6���0��$GDPF]\N��HW�DO����������,QRUJDQLF�DQG�2UJDQLF�&RQWDPLQDQWV�LQ�,QWHUWLGDO�6HGLPHQWV�RI�WKH�&O\GH���3UHOLPLQDU\�2EVHUYDWLRQV�RI�+LVWRULFDO�7UHQGV��0DULQH�3ROOXWLRQ�%XOOHWLQ�������������������+XWFKLQJV��-��$��DQG�5��$��0\HUV����������(IIHFW�RI�DJH�RQ�WKH�VHDVRQDOLW\�RI�PDWXUDWLRQ�DQG�VSDZQLQJ�RI�$WODQWLF�FRG��*DGXV�PRUKXD��LQ�WKH�1RUWKZHVW�$WODQWLF��&DQDGLDQ�-RXUQDO�RI�)LVKHULHV�DQG�$TXDWLF�6FLHQFHV��������±�������+XWFKLQVRQ�:�)���&DUYDOKR�*�5���5RJHUV�6�,����������0DUNHG�JHQHWLF�VWUXFWXULQJ�LQ�ORFDOLVHG�VSDZQLQJ�SRSXODWLRQV�RI�FRG�*DGXV�PRUKXD�LQ�WKH�1RUWK�6HD�DQG�DGMRLQLQJ�ZDWHUV��DV�UHYHDOHG�E\�PLFURVDWHOOLWHV��0DULQH�(FRORJ\�3URJUHVV�6HULHV�����������������,&(6���������5HSRUW�RI�WKH�+HUULQJ�$VVHVVPHQW�:RUNLQJ�*URXS�6RXWK�RI����1��&RSHQKDJHQ��,&(6�&0������+��������SS���,&(6����������5HSRUW�RI�WKH�:RUNLQJ�*URXS�RQ�WKH�$VVHVVPHQW�RI�1RUWKHUQ�6KHOI�'HPHUVDO�6WRFNV��:*16'6���,&(6�'RFXPHQW�&0������$&20�������,&(6����������5HSRUW�RI�WKH�:RUNLQJ�*URXS�RQ�WKH�$VVHVVPHQW�IRU�WKH�&HOWLF�6HDV�(FRUHJLRQ��:*&6(���,&(6�'RFXPHQW�&0������$&20�������-HQNLQV��6���%��%HXNHUV�6WHZDUW��HW�DO����������,PSDFW�RI�VFDOORS�GUHGJLQJ�RQ�EHQWKLF�PHJDIDXQD��D�FRPSDULVRQ�RI�GDPDJH�OHYHOV�LQ�FDSWXUHG�DQG�QRQ�FDSWXUHG�RUJDQLVPV��0DULQH�(FRORJ\�3URJUHVV�6HULHV�����������������.DLVHU��0��-��DQG�-��*��+LGGLQN���������)RRG�VXEVLGLHV�IURP�ILVKHULHV�WR�FRQWLQHQWDO�VKHOI�EHQWKLF�VFDYHQJHUV��0DULQH�(FRORJ\�3URJUHVV�6HULHV���.DPHQRV��1��$���3��*��0RRUH��HW�DO����������6XEVWUDWXP�KHWHURJHQHLW\�RI�GUHGJHG�YV�XQ�GUHGJHG�PDHUO�JURXQGV��-RXUQDO�RI�WKH�0DULQH�%LRORJLFDO�$VVRFLDWLRQ�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�.LQJGRP������������������.DPHQRV��1�$���3�*��0RRUH�DQG�7�'�,��6WHYHQVRQ���������³0DULQH�6XUYH\�WR�,GHQWLI\�0DHUO�%HGV��/DPODVK�%D\�/RQJ�6HD�2XWIDOO´��6FRWWLVK�:DWHU�6ROXWLRQV�5HI�1XP��6:6�):���������������8QLYHUVLW\�0DULQH�%LRORJLFDO�6WDWLRQ�0LOOSRUW��,VOH�RI�&XPEUDH��6FRWODQG����.HHJDQ��%�)���������7KH�PDFURIDXQD�RI�PDHUO�VXEVWUDWHV�RQ�WKH�ZHVW�FRDVW�RI�,UHODQG��&DKLHUV�GH�%LRORJLH�0DULQH���������±������.HOO\��$��*����������$FFXPXODWLRQ�DQG�3HUVLVWHQFH�RI�&KORURELSKHQ\OV��2UJDQRFKORULQH�3HVWLFLGHV�DQG�)HFDO�6WHUROV�DW�WKH�*DUURFK�+HDG�6HZDJH�6OXGJH�'LVSRVDO�6LWH��)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��(QYLURQPHQWDO�3ROOXWLRQ�������������������.HOO\��$��*��DQG�/��$��&DPSEHOO���������3HUVLVWHQW�RUJDQRFKORULQH�FRQWDPLQDQWV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�LQ�UHODWLRQ�WR�VHZDJH�VOXGJH�LQSXW��0DULQH�(QYLURQPHQWDO�5HVHDUFK������������������/DIIROH\��'�G¶$���HW�DO����������7KH�0DU&OLP�3URMHFW��.H\�PHVVDJHV�IRU�GHFLVLRQ�

Page 114: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

PDNHUV�DQG�SROLF\�DGYLVRUV��DQG�UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV�IRU�IXWXUH�DGPLQLVWUDWLYH�DUUDQJHPHQWV�DQG�PDQDJHPHQW�PHDVXUHV��(QJOLVK�1DWXUH�5HVHDUFK�5HSRUWV��1R��������/DQJPHDG��2���-DFNVRQ��(���/HDU��'���(YDQV��-���6HHOH\��%��(OOLV��5���0LHV]NRZVND��1��DQG�7\OHU�:DOWHUV��+����������7KH�5HYLHZ�RI�%LRGLYHUVLW\�IRU�0DULQH�6SDWLDO�3ODQQLQJ�ZLWKLQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��5HSRUW�WR�WKH�660(,�&O\GH�3LORW�IURP�WKH�0DULQH�/LIH�,QIRUPDWLRQ�1HWZRUN��0DU/,1���3O\PRXWK��0DULQH�%LRORJLFDO�$VVRFLDWLRQ�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�.LQJGRP���0DF'RQDOG��'��6���0��/LWWOH��HW�DO����������'LVWXUEDQFH�RI�EHQWKLF�VSHFLHV�E\�ILVKLQJ�DFWLYLWLHV��D�VHQVLWLYLW\�LQGH[��$TXDWLF�&RQVHUYDWLRQ���0DJJV��&��$����������6FRWWLVK�PDULQH�PDFURDOJDH��$�GLVWULEXWLRQDO�FKHFNOLVW��ELRJHRJUDSKLFDO�DQDO\VLV�DQG�OLWHUDWXUH�DEVWUDFW��1DWXUH�&RQVHUYDQF\�&RXQFLO��&6'�5HSRUW��1R��������0DUVKDOO��6����������7KH�)RRG�RI�&DODQXV�)LQPDUFKLFXV�GXULQJ�������-RXUQDO�RI�WKH�0DULQH�%LRORJLFDO�$VVRFLDWLRQ�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�.LQJGRP��1HZ�6HULHV�������SS�����������0DUVKDOO��6��0����������5HVSLUDWLRQ�DQG�)HHGLQJ�LQ�&RSHSRGV��$GYDQFHV�LQ�0DULQH�%LRORJ\��6��5��)UHGHULFN�DQG�<��0DXULFH��$FDGHPLF�3UHVV���������������0DVRQ��-����������6FDOORS�DQG�TXHHQ�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�%ULWLVK�,VOHV��)DUQKDP��(QJODQG��)LVKLQJ�1HZV�%RRNV�/WG������SS��0DVRQ��-���)UDVHU��'�,����������6KHOOILVK�ILVKHULHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD��3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK����%������������0HJUH\��%��$���-��6��/LQN��HW�DO����������&RPSDUDWLYH�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHP�DQDO\VLV��$SSOLFDWLRQV��RSSRUWXQLWLHV��DQG�OHVVRQV�OHDUQHG��3URJUHVV�LQ�2FHDQRJUDSK\�����������������0LOOHU��%��6����������0XVVHOV�DV�ELRPRQLWRUV�RI�SRLQW�DQG�GLIIXVH�VRXUFHV�RI�WUDFH�PHWDOV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD��6FRWODQG��:DWHU�6FLHQFH�DQG�7HFKQRORJ\��������������������0LOOLJDQ��5��-���$��$OEDODW��HW�DO����������7KH�HIIHFWV�RI�WUDZOLQJ�RQ�WKH�SK\VLFDO�FRQGLWLRQ�RI�WKH�1RUZD\�OREVWHU�1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV�LQ�UHODWLRQ�WR�VHDVRQDO�F\FOHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH�������������������0LOOV��&��0���6��(��7RZQVHQG��HW�DO����������(VWLPDWLQJ�KLJK�UHVROXWLRQ�WUDZO�ILVKLQJ�HIIRUW�IURP�VDWHOOLWH�EDVHG�YHVVHO�PRQLWRULQJ�V\VWHP�GDWD��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH�������������������0RMWDKLG��0���)��-RULVVHQ��HW�DO����������&RPSDULVRQ�RI�EHQWKLF�IRUDPLQLIHUDO�DQG�PDFURIDXQDO�UHVSRQVHV�WR�RUJDQLF�SROOXWLRQ�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��6FRWODQG���0DULQH�3ROOXWLRQ�%XOOHWLQ����������������0RQDJKDQ��3��DQG�=RQIULOOR�%����������3RSXODWLRQ�G\QDPLFV�RI�VHDELUGV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK����%������������0RRUH��+�%����������7KH�0XGV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD��,,,��&KHPLFDO�DQG�3K\VLFDO�&RQGLWLRQV��5DWH�DQG�1DWXUH�RI�6HGLPHQWDWLRQ��DQG�)DXQD��-RXUQDO�RI�WKH�0DULQH�%LRORJLFDO�$VVRFLDWLRQ�RI�WKH�8QLWHG�.LQJGRP�����SS�����������0RRUH��3�*����������7KH�IDXQD�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD�&UXVWDFHD��$PSKLSRGD��0LOOSRUW��8QLY��0DULQH�%LRO��6WDWLRQ���

Page 115: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

0RRUH��&��*��DQG�-DPHV��%��'����������6FRSLQJ�LPPHGLDWH�SULRULWLHV�IRU�03$�UHODWHG�EHQWKLF�PDULQH�ELRORJLFDO�VXUYH\�ZRUN�LQ�6FRWWLVK�WHUULWRULDO�ZDWHUV��6FRWWLVK�1DWXUDO�+HULWDJH�&RPPLVVLRQHG�5HSRUW��1R�������3URMHFW�QR�����������0RUHOOR��(��%���&��)URJOLD��HW�DO����������8QGHUZDWHU�WHOHYLVLRQ�DV�D�ILVKHU\�LQGHSHQGHQW�PHWKRG�IRU�VWRFN�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�1RUZD\�OREVWHU��1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV���LQ�WKH�FHQWUDO�$GULDWLF�VHD��,WDO\���,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH���������������������0RULVVHWWH��/���3HGHUVHQ��7���DQG�1LOVHQ��0����������&RPSDULQJ�SULVWLQH�DQG�GHSOHWHG�HFRV\VWHPV���WKH�6¡UIMRUG��1RUZD\�YV�WKH�*XOI�RI�6W��/DZUHQFH��&DQDGD��(IIHFWV�RI�LQWHQVH�ILVKHULHV�RQ�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHPV��,&(6�&0������'������0\HUV�5�$��0DF.HQ]LH�%�5��%RZHQ�.�*��%DUURZPDQ�1�-����������:KDW�LV�WKH�FDUU\LQJ�FDSDFLW\�IRU�ILVK�LQ�WKH�RFHDQ"�$�PHWD�DQDO\VLV�RI�SRSXODWLRQ�G\QDPLFV�RI�1RUWK�$WODQWLF�FRG��&DQDGLDQ�-RXUQDO�RI�)LVKHULHV�DQG�$TXDWLF�6FLHQFHV������������������1DSLHU��,��5����������*URZWK�DQG�&ROODSVH�RI�D�6SULQJ�3K\WRSODQNWRQ�%ORRP�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��6FRWODQG��0DULQH�%LRORJ\��������������������2JX]��7���+��:��'XFNORZ��HW�DO����������0RGHOLQJ�WKH�UHVSRQVH�RI�WRS�GRZQ�FRQWURO�H[HUWHG�E\�JHODWLQRXV�FDUQLYRUHV�RQ�WKH�%ODFN�6HD�SHODJLF�IRRG�ZHE��-��*HRSK\V��5HV�������&����������������2JX]��7��DQG�'��*LOEHUW���������$EUXSW�WUDQVLWLRQV�RI�WKH�WRS�GRZQ�FRQWUROOHG�%ODFN�6HD�SHODJLF�HFRV\VWHP�GXULQJ������������(YLGHQFH�IRU�UHJLPH�VKLIWV�XQGHU�VWURQJ�ILVKHU\�H[SORLWDWLRQ�DQG�QXWULHQW�HQULFKPHQW�PRGXODWHG�E\�FOLPDWH�LQGXFHG�YDULDWLRQV��'HHS�6HD�5HVHDUFK�3DUW�,��2FHDQRJUDSKLF�5HVHDUFK�3DSHUV������������������263$5���������6WDWXV�DQG�WUHQG�RI�PDULQH�FKHPLFDO�SROOXWLRQ��+D]DUGRXV�6XEVWDQFHV�6HULHV��263$5�&RPPLVVLRQ��3DUVORZ�:LOOLDPV��3���&��*RRGKHLU��HW�DO����������)HHGLQJ�HQHUJHWLFV�RI�WKH�1RUZD\�OREVWHU��1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��6FRWODQG��2SKHOLD�������������������3RRGOH��7����������)UHVK�ZDWHU�LQIORZV�WR�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK����%����������5DPVD\��.���0��-��.DLVHU��HW�DO����������&RQVXPSWLRQ�RI�ILVKHULHV�GLVFDUGV�E\�EHQWKLF�VFDYHQJHUV��XWLOL]DWLRQ�RI�HQHUJ\�VXEVLGLHV�LQ�GLIIHUHQW�PDULQH�KDELWDWV��-RXUQDO�RI�$QLPDO�(FRORJ\�������������������5H\QROGV��&��6���$��(��,ULVK��HW�DO����������7KH�HFRORJLFDO�EDVLV�IRU�VLPXODWLQJ�SK\WRSODQNWRQ�UHVSRQVHV�WR�HQYLURQPHQWDO�FKDQJH��3527(&+���(FRORJLFDO�0RGHOOLQJ��������������������5RFKHW��0��-���,��3pURQQHW��HW�DO����������$Q�DQDO\VLV�RI�GLVFDUGV�IURP�WKH�)UHQFK�WUDZOHU�IOHHW�LQ�WKH�&HOWLF�6HD��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH��-RXUQDO�GX�&RQVHLO���������������5RGJHU��*��.���,��0��'DYLHV��HW�DO����������(IIHFWV�RI�6HZDJH�6OXGJH�'LVSRVDO�RQ�WKH�6HGLPHQW�DW�WKH�*DUURFK�+HDG�'XPS�6LWH��)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��6FRWODQG��6FLHQFH�RI�WKH�7RWDO�(QYLURQPHQW����������������5RJHUVRQ��$��DQG�-��/D\ERXUQSDUU\���������%DFWHULRSODQNWRQ�$EXQGDQFH�DQG�3URGXFWLRQ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\��6FRWODQG��$UFKLY�)XU�+\GURELRORJLH�����������������

Page 116: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

5RUNH��0����������7KH�6FRWWLVK�+HUULQJ�7UDGH�������������7KH�6FRWWLVK�+LVWRULFDO�5HYLHZ��9RO������1R�������3DUW����SS�����������6DUGD��)���0ROL��%���DQG�3DORPHUD��,����������3UHVHUYDWLRQ�RI�MXYHQLOH�KDNH��0HUOXFFLXV�PHUOXFFLXV��/����LQ�WKH�ZHVWHUQ�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�GHPHUVDO�WUDZO�ILVKHU\�E\�XVLQJ�VRUWLQJ�JULGV��6FLHQWLD�0DULQD����������������6DUGD��)���%DKDPRQ��1���DQG�0ROL��%����������&RPPHUFLDO�WHVWLQJ�RI�D�VRUWLQJ�JULG�WR�UHGXFH�FDWFKHV�RI�MXYHQLOH�KDNH��0HUOXFFLXV�PHUOXFFLXV���LQ�WKH�ZHVWHUQ�0HGLWHUUDQHDQ�GHPHUVDO�WUDZO�ILVKHU\��$TXDW��/LYLQJ�5HVRXU���������±�����6DYLOOH��$����������+HUULQJ�WDJJLQJ�H[SHULPHQWV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH��6FRWWLVK�)LVKHULHV�%XOOHWLQ��9RO������������6LPSVRQ��-��+��DQG�7��3��5LSSHWK���������7KH�&O\GH�6HD��D�0RGHO�RI�WKH�6HDVRQDO�&\FOH�RI�6WUDWLILFDWLRQ�DQG�0L[LQJ��(VWXDULQH��&RDVWDO�DQG�6KHOI�6FLHQFH�������������������6LPV��'�:��:HDUPRXWK��9�-���*HQQHU��0�-���6RXWKZDUG��$�-���DQG�+DZNLQV��6�-����������/RZ�WHPSHUDWXUH�GULYHQ�HDUO\�VSDZQLQJ�PLJUDWLRQ�RI�D�PDULQH�WHPSHUDWH�ILVK��-RXUQDO�RI�$QLPDO�(FRORJ\����������������6OHVVHU��*��DQG�:�5��7XUUHOO���������$QQXDO�F\FOHV�RI�SK\VLFDO�FKHPLFDO�DQG�ELRORJLFDO�SDUDPHWHUV�LQ�6FRWWLVK�ZDWHUV��������XSGDWH���)LVKHULHV�5HVHDUFK�6HUYLFHV�,QWHUQDO�5HSRUW�1R���������6RPHUYLOOH��6��(���.��/��0LOOHU��HW�DO����������$VVHVVPHQW�RI�WKH�DHVWKHWLF�TXDOLW\�RI�D�VHOHFWLRQ�RI�EHDFKHV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�)RUWK��6FRWODQG��0DULQH�3ROOXWLRQ�%XOOHWLQ��������������������6WHOOHU��'��/��DQG�0��6��)RVWHU���������(QYLURQPHQWDO�IDFWRUV�LQIOXHQFLQJ�GLVWULEXWLRQ�DQG�PRUSKRORJ\�RI�UKRGROLWKV�LQ�%DKtD�&RQFHSFLyQ��%�&�6���0p[LFR��-RXUQDO�RI�([SHULPHQWDO�0DULQH�%LRORJ\�DQG�(FRORJ\��������������������6WHOOHU��'�/��5LRVPHQD�5RGUtJXH]��5���)RVWHU��0�6���5REHUWV��&�$����������5KRGROLWK�EHG�GLYHUVLW\�LQ�WKH�*XOI�RI�&DOLIRUQLD��WKH�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�UKRGROLWK�VWUXFWXUH�DQG�FRQVHTXHQFHV�RI�GLVWXUEDQFH��$TXDWLF�&RQVHUYDWLRQ��0DULQH�DQG�)UHVKZDWHU�(FRV\VWHPV��9RO�����6WRER��/�$���/DFD]H��-��3�&�/���6FRWW��$�&���3HWULH��-��DQG�(�$��7XUUHOO���������6XUYHLOODQFH�RI�DOJDO�WR[LQV�LQ�VKHOOILVK�IURP�6FRWWLVK�ZDWHUV��7R[LFRQ��YRO�����3DJHV����������6WUDWRXGDNLV��<���5��-��)U\HU��HW�DO����������)LVK�GLVFDUGHG�IURP�6FRWWLVK�GHPHUVDO�YHVVHOV��(VWLPDWRUV�RI�WRWDO�GLVFDUGV�DQG�DQQXDO�HVWLPDWHV�IRU�WDUJHWHG�JDGRLGV��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH�������������������6WUDWRXGDNLV��<���5��-��)U\HU��HW�DO����������)LVK�E\FDWFK�DQG�GLVFDUGLQJ�LQ�1HSKURSV�WUDZOHUV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��ZHVW�RI�6FRWODQG���$TXDWLF�/LYLQJ�5HVRXUFHV�������������������6SHHGLH��&�'���-RKQVRQ��/��$���:LWW��0�-����������%DVNLQJ�6KDUN�+RWVSRWV�RQ�WKH�:HVW�&RDVW�RI�6FRWODQG��.H\�VLWHV��WKUHDWV�DQG�LPSOLFDWLRQV�IRU�FRQVHUYDWLRQ�RI�WKH�VSHFLHV��&RPPLVVLRQHG�5HSRUW��1R�������7HWW�3����������7KH�HFRORJ\�RI�SODQNWRQ�LQ�6FRWWLVK�FRDVWDO�ZDWHUV��3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK�����%���������

Page 117: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

7HWW��3��*RZHQ��5���*UDQWKDP��%��$QG�-RQHV��.����������7KH�SK\WRSODQNWRQ�HFRORJ\�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�VHD�ORFKV�6WULYHQ�DQG�)\QH��3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK����%�����������7KRP��7���2¶&RQQHOO��0��DQG�/XFDV��0����������$�VDWHOOLWH�WDJJLQJ�VWXG\�RI�EDVNLQJ�VKUDNV��&HWRUKLQXV�PD[LPXV���DQG�LQYHVWLJDWLRQV�RI�DVVRFLDWHG�SODQNWRQ�GLVWULEXWLRQV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��6FRWWLVK�1DWXUDO�+HULWDJH�5HVHDUFK��6XUYH\�DQG�0RQLWRULQJ�5HSRUW��1R�������7KUXVK��6���-��+HZLWW��HW�DO����������'LVWXUEDQFH�RI�WKH�PDULQH�EHQWKLF�KDELWDW�E\�FRPPHUFLDO�ILVKLQJ��LPSDFWV�DW�WKH�VFDOH�RI�WKH�ILVKHU\��(FRORJLFDO�$SSOLFDWLRQV������������������7KXUVWDQ��5�+��DQG�5REHUWV��&�0����������(FRORJLFDO�PHOWGRZQ�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��6FRWODQG��7ZR�FHQWXULHV�RI�FKDQJH�LQ�D�FRDVWDO�PDULQH�HFRV\VWHP��3/R6�RQH�����H�������7LY\��-����������7KH�JHRJUDSK\�RI�WKH�HVWXDU\�DQG�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK����%���������7XFN��,��'���5��-��$��$WNLQVRQ��HW�DO����������3RSXODWLRQ�ELRORJ\�RI�WKH�1RUZD\�OREVWHU��1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV��/����LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��6FRWODQG�,,��IHFXQGLW\�DQG�VL]H�DW�RQVHW�RI�VH[XDO�PDWXULW\��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH���������������������7XFN��,��'���&��-��&KDSPDQ��HW�DO����������3RSXODWLRQ�ELRORJ\�RI�WKH�1RUZD\�OREVWHU��1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV��/���LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��6FRWODQG�����*URZWK�DQG�GHQVLW\��,&(6�-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6FLHQFH�������������������7XFN��,��'��DQG�5��-��$��$WNLQVRQ���������8QLGHQWLILHG�EXUURZ�VXUIDFH�WUDFH�IURP�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD��1HWKHUODQGV�-RXUQDO�RI�6HD�5HVHDUFK�������������������7XFN��,��'���&��-��&KDSPDQ��HW�DO����������$�FRPSDULVRQ�RI�PHWKRGV�IRU�VWRFN�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�WKH�1RUZD\�OREVWHU��1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV��LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��)LVKHULHV�5HVHDUFK�����������������7XFN��,��'���6��-��+DOO��HW�DO����������(IIHFWV�RI�SK\VLFDO�WUDZOLQJ�GLVWXUEDQFH�LQ�D�SUHYLRXVO\�XQILVKHG�VKHOWHUHG�6FRWWLVK�VHD�ORFK��0DULQH�(FRORJ\�3URJUHVV�6HULHV�����������������7XOO\��2��DQG�-��3��+LOOLV���������&DXVHV�DQG�6SDWLDO�6FDOHV�RI�9DULDELOLW\�LQ�3RSXODWLRQ�6WUXFWXUH�RI�1HSKURSV�1RUYHJLFXV��/���LQ�WKH�,ULVK�6HD��)LVKHULHV�5HVHDUFK���������������������9DOHQWLQVVRQ��'��DQG�0��8OPHVWUDQG���������6SHFLHV�VHOHFWLYH�1HSKURSV�WUDZOLQJ��6ZHGLVK�JULG�H[SHULPHQWV��)LVKHULHV�5HVHDUFK���������������������9DQH��&��+���,��+DUULVRQ��HW�DO����������$VVHVVPHQW�RI�SRO\DURPDWLF�K\GURFDUERQV��3$+V���DQG�SRO\FKORULQDWHG�ELSKHQ\OV��3&%V���LQ�VXUIDFH�VHGLPHQWV�RI�WKH�,QQHU�&O\GH�(VWXDU\��8.��0DULQH�3ROOXWLRQ�%XOOHWLQ��������������������9DQH��&��+���<��-��0D��HW�DO����������,QFUHDVLQJ�SRO\EURPLQDWHG�GLSKHQ\O�HWKHU��3%'(���FRQWDPLQDWLRQ�LQ�VHGLPHQW�FRUHV�IURP�WKH�LQQHU�&O\GH�(VWXDU\��8.��(QYLURQPHQWDO�*HRFKHPLVWU\�DQG�+HDOWK�����������������:DQLHN��-��-��DQG�1��3��+ROOLGD\���������/DUJH�VFDOH�SK\VLFDO�FRQWUROV�RQ�SK\WRSODQNWRQ�JURZWK�LQ�WKH�,UPLQJHU�6HD��3DUW�,,��0RGHO�VWXG\�RI�WKH�SK\VLFDO�DQG�PHWHRURORJLFDO�SUHFRQGLWLRQLQJ��-RXUQDO�RI�0DULQH�6\VWHPV���������������������

Page 118: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

:HEVWHU��/��DQG�/��$��&DPSEHOO���������&KORURELSKHQ\O�FRQWDPLQDQWV�DW�3ODGGD�DQG�*DUURFK�+HDG�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�IROORZLQJ�WKH�FHVVDWLRQ�RI�VHZDJH�VOXGJH�GXPSLQJ��-RXUQDO�RI�(QYLURQPHQWDO�0RQLWRULQJ������������������:HEVWHU��/���/��3KLOOLSV��HW�DO����������2UJDQLF�FRQWDPLQDQWV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�IROORZLQJ�WKH�FHVVDWLRQ�RI�VHZDJH�VOXGJH�GXPSLQJ��-RXUQDO�RI�(QYLURQPHQWDO�0RQLWRULQJ���������������������:HEVWHU��/���0��5XVVHOO��HW�DO����������3UHOLPLQDU\�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�SRO\EURPLQDWHG�GLSKHQ\O�HWKHUV��3%'(V���LQ�WKH�6FRWWLVK�DTXDWLF�HQYLURQPHQW��LQFOXGLQJ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��-RXUQDO�RI�(QYLURQPHQWDO�0RQLWRULQJ�������������������:HEVWHU��/���0��5XVVHOO��HW�DO����������$Q�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�SHUVLVWHQW�RUJDQLF�SROOXWDQWV�LQ�6FRWWLVK�FRDVWDO�DQG�RIIVKRUH�PDULQH�HQYLURQPHQWV��-RXUQDO�RI�(QYLURQPHQWDO�0RQLWRULQJ����������:LHF]RUHN��6��.���0RRUH��3�*���$WNLQVRQ��5�-�$���)URJOLD��&���&DPSDJQXROR��6���*UDPLWWR��(�0���&KDSPDQ��&�-��DQG�%DLOH\��1����������7KH�&RPSRVLWLRQ�DQG�)DWH�RI�'LVFDUGV�IURP�1HSKURSV�7UDZOLQJ�LQ�6FRWWLVK�DQG�,WDOLDQ�:DWHUV��)LQDO�5HSRUW�WR�WKH�(XURSHDQ�&RPPLVVLRQ��352-(&7�1����������:LONLH��,�&����������7KH�IDXQD�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�DUHD�(FKLQRGHUPDWD���:LOVRQ��6���%ODNH��&���%HUJHV��-�$���0DJJV��&�$����������(QYLURQPHQWDO�WROHUDQFHV�RI�IUHH�OLYLQJ�FRUDOOLQH�DOJDH��PDHUO���LPSOLFDWLRQV�IRU�(XURSHDQ�PDULQH�FRQVHUYDWLRQ��%LRORJLFDO�&RQVHUYDWLRQ�����������������:RRG��+����������7KH�KHUULQJ�RI�WKH�&O\GH�HVWXDU\��6FRWWLVK�)LVKHULHV�%XOOHWLQ���������:ULJKW��3��-���(��*DOOH\��HW�DO����������)LGHOLW\�RI�DGXOW�FRG�WR�VSDZQLQJ�JURXQGV�LQ�6FRWWLVK�ZDWHUV��)LVKHULHV�5HVHDUFK�������������������

Page 119: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

������� 3URFHHGLQJV�RI�WKH�5R\DO�6RFLHW\�RI�(GLQEXUJK�%��9ROXPH�����������%R\G��-��0����������7KH�HQYLURQPHQW�RI�WKH�(VWXDU\�DQG�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�±�DQ�LQWURGXFWLRQ��S������7LY\��-����������7KH�JHRJUDSK\�RI�WKH�(VWXDU\�DQG�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��S�������-DUGLQH��*���������7KH�JHRORJLFDO�DQG�JHRPRUSKRORJLFDO�VHWWLQJ�RI�WKH�(VWXDU\�DQG�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��S��������6PLWK��.����������7KH�FOLPDWH�RI�WKH�(VWXDU\�DQG�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��S��������3RRGOH��7����������)UHVK�ZDWHU�LQIORZV�WR�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��S��������(GZDUGV��$���0��6��%D[WHU��'��-��(OOHWW��-��+��$��0DUWLQ��'��7��0HOGUXP�DQG�&��5��*ULIILWKV���������&O\GH�6HD�K\GURJUDSK\��S��������7RZQVRQ��-�0��DQG�5LFKDUG�+��*����������&ROODU�:DWHU�PRYHPHQW�DQG�WKH�VLPXODWLRQ�RI�VWRUP�VXUJHV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��S��������&XUUDQ��-�&����������(IIOXHQW�GLVSRVDO�DQG�WKH�SK\VLFDO�HQYLURQPHQW���-��&��&XUUDQ��S���������/HZLV��5�(����������7KH�K\GURJUDSK\�RI�,UYLQH�%D\�DQG�LWV�UHODWLRQ�WR�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD��S����������%DOOV��3�:����������7UDFH�PHWDOV�LQ�ZDWHU�DQG�VXVSHQGHG�SDUWLFXODWHV�±�D�V\QRSVLV��S����������0HDGRZV��3�6��DQG�$��7XIDLO���������%LRWXUEDWLRQ��PLFURELDO�DFWLYLW\�DQG�VHGLPHQW�SURSHUWLHV�LQ�DQ�HVWXDULQH�HFRV\VWHP��S����������:LONLQVRQ��0���)XOOHU�,���DQG�'��5HQGDOO���������7KH�DWWDFKHG�DOJDH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�DQG�*DUQRFN�(VWXDULHV��S����������0F/HDQ��5�2���7��$��.��*RZ��-��:HEVWHU��$��$UWKXU�DQG�'��-��&XUWLV���������(SLOLWKLF�GLDWRPV�RI�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\��S����������+HQGHUVRQ�$�5��DQG�-�'��+DPLOWRQ��������7KH�VWDWXV�RI�ILVK�SRSXODWLRQ�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\��S����������)XUQHVV��5�:���+��*DOEUDLWK��,�3��*LEVRQ�DQG�1HLO�%����������5HFHQW�FKDQJHV�LQ�QXPEHUV�RI�ZDGHUV�RQ�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\��DQG�WKHLU�VLJQLILFDQFH�IRU�FRQVHUYDWLRQ��S����������7KRPSVRQ��'��%��$���'��-���&XUWLV�DQG�-��&��6P\WK���������3DWWHUQV�RI�DVVRFLDWLRQ�EHWZHHQ�ELUGV�DQG�LQYHUWHEUDWHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\��S����������%RQH\��$�'����������6HDVRQDO�VWXGLHV�RQ�WKH�SK\WRSODQNWRQ�DQG�SULPDU\�SURGXFWLRQ�LQ�WKH�LQQHU�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��S����������7HWW��3���5��*RZHQ��%��*UDQWKDP�DQG�.��-RQHV���������7KH�SK\WRSODQNWRQ�HFRORJ\�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH�VHD�ORFKV�6WULYHQ�DQG�)\QH��S����������$GDPV��-�$����������=RRSODQNWRQ�LQYHVWLJDWLRQV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��S����������

Page 120: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

1RUWRQ��7�$����������7KH�HFRORJ\�RI�PDFURDOJDH�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��S����������0RRUH��3�*����������6HDZHHG�DVVRFLDWHG�DQLPDO�FRPPXQLWLHV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��ZLWK�VSHFLDO�UHIHUHQFH�WR�WKH�SRSXODWLRQ�ELRORJ\�RI�WKH�DPSKLSRG�+\DOH�QLOVVRQL��5DWKNH���S����������%DUQHWW�3��5��2��DQG�-��:DWVRQ���������/RQJ�WHUP�FKDQJHV�LQ�VRPH�EHQWKLF�VSHFLHV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��ZLWK�SDUWLFXODU�UHIHUHQFH�WR�7HOOLQD�WHQXLV�GD�&RVWD��S����������+DUG\��%��/��6��DQG�3��5��2��%DUQHWW���������7KH�ELRORJ\�RI�KDUSDFWLFRLG�FRSHSRGV�LQ�WKH�PHLRIDXQD�RI�VKDOORZ�VXEWLGDO�VDQGV��S����������(OHIWKHULRX��$���0��5��5REHUWVRQ�DQG�'��-��0XULVRQ���������7KH�EHQWKLF�IDXQD�RI�VDQG\�ED\V��ZLWK�SDUWLFXODU�UHIHUHQFH�WR�,UYLQH�%D\��S����������3HDUVRQ��7��+���$��'��$QVHOO�DQG�/��5REE�7KH�EHQWKRV�RI�WKH�GHHSHU�VHGLPHQWV�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��ZLWK�SDUWLFXODU�UHIHUHQFH�WR�RUJDQLF�HQULFKPHQW��S����������$WNLQVRQ��5��-��$����������0XG�EXUURZLQJ�PHJDIDXQD�RI�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD��S����������0RQDJKDQ��3��DQG�%��=RQIULOOR���������3RSXODWLRQ�G\QDPLFV�RI�VHDELUGV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��S���������

0LOOHU��%�6����������7UDFH�PHWDOV�LQ�WKH�FRPPRQ�PXVVHO�0\WLOXV�HGXOLV��/���LQ�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\��S����������+DLJ��$�-�1����������8VH�RI�WKH�&O\GH�(VWXDU\�DQG�)LUWK�IRU�WKH�GLVSRVDO�RI�HIIOXHQWV��S����������%DLOH\��5��6���'��:��0F.D\��-��$��0RUULVRQ�DQG�0��:DOVK���������7KH�ELRORJ\�DQG�PDQDJHPHQW�RI�KHUULQJ�DQG�RWKHU�SHODJLF�ILVK�VWRFNV�LQ�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��S����������+LVORS��-��5��*����������7KH�GHPHUVDO�ILVKHU\�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD��S����������0DVRQ��-��DQG�'��,��)UDVHU���������6KHOOILVK�ILVKHULHV�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD��S����������*LEVRQ��-�$����������5HFHQW�FKDQJHV�LQ�WKH�VWDWXV�RI�VRPH�&O\GH�YHUWHEUDWHV��S����������.HUU��$�-����������&RQVHUYDWLRQ�RI�QDWXUDO�UHVRXUFHV��S����������0DFND\��'�:��DQG�&��5RVV���������'RXJKW\�0LJUDWRU\�VDOPRQLGV�RI�WKH�(VWXDU\�DQG�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��S����������3R[WRQ��0�*����������7KH�GLVWULEXWLRQ�RI�SODLFH�HJJV�DQG�ODUYDH�LQ�WKH�&O\GH�6HD�$UHD��S����������%DLOH\��1���)��*��+RZDUG�DQG�&��-��&KDSPDQ���������&O\GH�QHWKURSV��ELRORJ\�DQG�ILVKHULHV��S����������'RRG\��-�3����������7KH�VDOWPDUVKHV�RI�WKH�)LUWK�RI�&O\GH��S�����������

Page 121: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

���� $QQH[�±�6SHFLHV�OLVW�IRU�WKH�&O\GH�IURP�+HDWK�DQG�6SHLUV����������

6SHFLHV� &RPPRQ�1DPH� 7\SH�

3HUFHQWDJH�RI�\HDUV�ZKHQ�VSHFLHV�IRXQG�

$OO�WLPH�0D[LPXP�/HQJWK��FP��

0HUOXFFLXV�PHUOXFFLXV� +DNH� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ����+LSSRJORVVRLGHV�SODWHVVRLGHV� /RQJ�5RXJK�'DE� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���*DGXV�PRUKXD� &RG� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���0HUODQJLXV�PHUODQJXV� :KLWLQJ� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���/LPDQGD�OLPDQGD� &RPPRQ�'DE� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���(XWULJOD�JXUQDUGXV� *UH\�*XUQDUG� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���7ULVRSWHUXV�HVPDUNL� 1RUZD\�3RXW� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���7ULVRSWHUXV�PLQXWXV� 3RRU�&RG� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���3OHXURQHFWHV�SODWHVVD� 3ODLFH� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���&OXSHD�KDUHQJXV� +HUULQJ� 3HODJLF� ��� ���6SUDWWXV�VSUDWWXV� 6SUDW� 3HODJLF� ��� ���1HSKURSV�QRUYHJLFXV� 1RUZD\�/REVWHU� ,QYHUWHEUDWH� ����� ����*RELLGHL� *RELHV��XQLGHQWLILHG�� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���$UJHQWLQD�VSK\UDHQD� /HVVHU�$UJHQWLQH� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���&DOOLRQ\PXV�O\UD� 'UDJRQHW� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���0HODQRJUDPPXV�DHJOHILQXV� +DGGRFN� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���*O\SWRFHSKDOXV�F\QRJORVVXV� :LWFK� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���/XPSHQXV�ODPSUHWDHIRUPLV� 6QDNH�%OHQQ\� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���5KLQRQHPXV�FLPEULXV� )RXU�EHDUGHG�5RFNOLQJ� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���6F\OLRUKLQXV�FDQLFXOD� /HVVHU�6SRWWHG�'RJILVK� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���3ROODFKLXV�YLUHQV� 6DLWKH� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���0LFURVWRPXV�NLWW� /HPRQ�6ROH� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���6FRPEHU�VFRPEUXV� 0DFNHUHO� 3HODJLF� ��� ���&DOOLRQ\PXV�PDFXODWXV� 6SRWWHG�'UDJRQHW� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���3ODWLFKWK\V�HVXV� )ORXQGHU� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���/RSKLXV�SLVFDWRULXV� $QJOHUILVK� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���6TXDOXV�DFDQWKLDV� 6SXUGRJ� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ����&HSROD�UXEHVFHQV� 5HG�%DQG�ILVK� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���7UDFKXUXV�WUDFKXUXV� +RUVH�0DFNHUHO��6FDG�� 3HODJLF� ����� ���/ROLJR�IRUEHVLL� /RQJ�)LQQHG�6TXLG� ,QYHUWHEUDWH� ����� ���$OORWHXWKLV�VXEXODWD� $OORWHXWKLV� ,QYHUWHEUDWH� ����� ���=HXV�IDEHU� -RKQ�'RU\� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���&RQJHU�FRQJHU� &RQJHU�(HO� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���/HXFRUDMD�QDHYXV� &XFNRR�5D\� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���&\FORSWHUXV�OXPSXV� /XPSVXFNHU� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���5DMD�PRQWDJXL� 6SRWWHG�5D\� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���5DMD�FODYDWD� 7KRUQEDFN�5D\� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���0LFURPHVLVWLXV�SRXWDVVRX� %OXH�:KLWLQJ� 'HPHUVDO� ��� ���3ROODFKLXV�SROODFKLXV� /\WKH�3ROODFN� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���*DLGURSVDUXV�YXOJDULV� 7KUHH�EHDUGHG�5RFNOLQJ� 'HPHUVDO� ����� ���$UJHQWLQD�VLOXV� *UHDWHU�$UJHQWLQH� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���/HSLGRUKRPEXV�ZKLILDJRQLV� 0HJULP� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���&LOLDWD�PXVWHOD� )LYH�EHDUGHG�5RFNOLQJ� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���*DOHRUKLQXV�JDOHXV� 7RSH� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ����7ULJOD�OXFHUQD� 7XE�*XUQDUG� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���3VHWWD�PD[LPD� 7XUERW� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���*DOHXV�PHODVWRPXV� %ODFN�0RXWKHG�'RJILVK� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���

Page 122: Clyde Ecosystem Review

����

6FRSKWKDOPXV�UKRPEXV� %ULOO� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���$JRQXV�FDWDSKUDFWXV� +RRNQRVH� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���2PPDVWUHSKLGDH� 6KRUW�)LQQHG�6TXLG� ,QYHUWHEUDWH� ���� ���'LSWXUXV�EDWLV� &RPPRQ�6NDWH� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���%XJORVVLGLXP�OXWHXP� 6ROHQHWWH� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���*DGLFXOXV�DUJHQWHXV�WKRUL� 6LOYHU\�3RXW� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ��$PPRG\WLGDH� 6DQGHHOV��XQLGHQWLILHG�� 3HODJLF� ���� ���(QJUDXOLV�HQFUDVLFROXV� $QFKRY\� 3HODJLF� ���� ��7ULVRSWHUXV�OXVFXV� %LE� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���5DMD�EUDFK\XUD� %ORQGH�5D\� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���0\R[RFHSKDOXV�VFRUSLXV� %XOO�5RXW� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���&RWWXV�JRELR� %XOOKHDG� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���$UQRJORVVXV�LPSHULDOLV� ,PSHULDO�6FDOGILVK� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���7ULJORSV�PXUUD\L� 0RXVWDFKH�6FXOSLQ� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ��6F\OLRUKLQXV�VWHOODULV� 1XUVH�+RXQG� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���(FKLRGRQ�GUXPPRQGL� 3HDUILVK� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ��7ULJOD�O\UD� 3LSHU�*XUQDUG� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���&KHOLGRQLFKWK\V�FXFXOXV� 5HG�*XUQDUG� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���7ULJORSRUXV�ODVWRYL]D� 6WUHDNHG�*XUQDUG� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���7DXUXOXV�EXEDOLV� 6HD�6FRUSLRQ� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���0LFURFKLUXV�YDULHJDWXV� 7KLFNEDFN�6ROH� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���$ORVD�IDOOD[� 7ZDLWH�6KDG� 'HPHUVDO� ���� ���6HSLROLGDH� %REWDLO�6TXLGV��XQLGHQWLILHG�� ,QYHUWHEUDWH� ��� �����

Page 123: Clyde Ecosystem Review

© Crown copyright 2012

ISBN: 978-1-78045-877-9 (web only)

ISSN: 2043-7722

APS Group Scotland DPPAS13075 (06/12)

w w w . s c o t l a n d . g o v . u k