CLOSING THE GAPS – REDUCING INEQUALITIES IN OUTCOMES FOR

CHILDREN AND YOUNG PEOPLE

BIRMINGHAM ACHIEVEMENT GROUP SEMINAR DECEMBER 2008

JOHN HILLRESEARCH & STATISTICS

BIRMINGHAM CONTEXTBIRMINGHAM CONTEXT

– 1 million population– 256,000 children & young people– 180,000 school age– 30% Black and minority ethnic (55% of

children)– 23% Under 16– 30% lone parent– 30% under 15 – where no adults work– 2,200 Children in Care

Well-being• Educational achievement is just one element of the

outcomes for children and young people identified by Every Child Matters.

• We are building-up an evidence base on how children and young people from different groups are doing on all ECM outcome areas:

• Enjoying and Achieving• Staying Safe• Being Healthy• Making a positive contribution• Achieving economic well-being

Further Information

Birmingham’s Examination and Assessment Results 2008

www.bgfl.org/perform

In LA Data, LA Standards

Children’s well-being survey group analysis

www.brighterfutures.bham.org.uk

Ethnic group profile of children attending Birmingham LA maintained schools 2008 (Groups with 500+ children)

42.7%

22.0%

6.3% 5.6% 5.3% 4.7%2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Key

5% BLACK - CARIBBEAN

4% BLACK - AFRICAN

Ethnic Groups of Pupils Aged 5-15 in Birmingham Schools as at Jan 2008

46% WHITE

6% MIXED RACE

6% OTHER ETHNIC GROUPS

22% PAKISTANI

6% INDIAN

5% BANGLADESHI

##

Key

63% English

1% Arabic

11% Any Other Language

10% Urdu

5% Panjabi (Gurmakhi)

4% Panjabi (Mirpuri)

Home Languages of Pupils Aged 4-15 in Birmingham Schools as at Jan 2008

4% Bangladeshi

2% Somali

##

Key

30% CHRISTIAN

23% NO RELIGION/NOT GIVEN

%

11% CHRISTIAN RC

29% MUSLIM

3% SIKH

Faith Communities of Pupils Aged 4-15 in Birmingham as at January 2007

2% HINDU

2% OTHER FAITHS

Changes in the ethnic group profile of children attending Birmingham LA maintained schools 2003-2008

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2003

2008

Comparison of ethnic group profile of current Y10 pupils and current Year 1 Pupils

No. % No. %Arab/Yemeni 125 1.0% 183 1.4% 0.4%Asian - Bangladeshi 486 3.8% 751 5.8% 2.0%Asian - Indian 762 6.0% 655 5.0% -0.9%Asian - Other 178 1.4% 203 1.6% 0.2%Asian - Pakistani 2568 20.1% 3567 27.4% 7.3%Black - African 226 1.8% 254 2.0% 0.2%Black - Caribbean 727 5.7% 649 5.0% -0.7%Black - Somali 209 1.6% 352 2.7% 1.1%Chinese 57 0.4% 47 0.4% -0.1%Mixed Race - Other 258 2.0% 342 2.6% 0.6%Mixed Race - White/Asian 102 0.8% 181 1.4% 0.6%Mixed Race - White/Black 376 2.9% 338 2.6% -0.3%Not Known 114 0.9% 110 0.8% 0.0%Other 128 1.0% 126 1.0% 0.0%Vietnamese 32 0.3% 26 0.2% -0.1%White - Other 334 2.6% 421 3.2% 0.6%White - UK 6073 47.6% 4803 36.9% -10.7%

Total 12755 13008

Ethnic Group DiffYr 1Yr 10

Percentage of pupils from Birmingham's two largest ethnic groups by Year Group 2008

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Year Group

White UK pupils

Pakistani pupils

Change in the percentage of Birmingham pupils with English as an additional language (EAL) 2003 -2008

38.1%

32.60%

25%

30%

35%

40%

EAL

20032008

Black Caribbean Pupil Density Map    

Pakistani Pupil Density Map    

White – Eligible for FSM Pupil Density Map    

ATTAINMENT TRENDS AT EACH KEY STAGE

Age Stage Year Assessment

3-4 Early Years Foundation Stage    

4-5   Reception  Teacher assessments in Communication,Language,literacy;mathematics;Personal,social,emotional development;physical development;creative development; knowledge and understanding of the world.

5-6 Key Stage 1

Year 1  

6-7   Year 2 Teacher assessments in English, maths and science

7-8 Key Stage 2

Year 3  

8-9   Year 4  

9-10   Year 5  

10-11   Year 6 National tests  in English, maths and science

11-12 Key Stage 3

Year 7

12-13   Year 8

13-14   Year 9 National tests in English, maths and science

14-15 Key Stage 4

Year 10 Some children take GCSEs

15-16   Year 11 Most children take GCSEs or other national qualifications

16-18  Post-16 A level qualifications or vocational qualifications

Groups at risk of underachieving

Analysis of educational performance data in Birmingham identified inequalities in educational outcomes for some pupil groups. In particular:

– African/Caribbean children– White/Black Caribbean children– Bangladeshi children– Pakistani children– Children from disadvantaged backgrounds– Looked after children– Children with disabilities/special needs

Boys performance is generally below that of girls ateach Key Stage.Changes in the City’s demographics, particularly new and emerging communities, mean that groups at risk of underachieving are not static.

The City’s achievement programmes were set-up to raise standards andreduce these inequalities.

Performance trends 1998-2008

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

KS1 Maths L2+

KS1 Reading L2+

KS2 English L4+KS2 Maths L4+

KS3 Maths L5+KS3 English L5+

GCSE 5A*-C

GCSE 5A*-C incl. English & Maths

Early Years Foundation Stage Profile Assessments; Children achieving the majority of the Early Learning Goals in Communication, Language and Literacy (2006-2008)

43% 43%

47%

53%

50%

48%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

2006 2007 2008

England

Birmingham

(Target 43.7%)

Percentage of pupils achieving the majority of the Early Learning Goals in Foundation Stage Communication , Language and Literacy (2007 & 2008)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%2007

2008

Birmingham LA average 2008

KS2 English Trends 2003-2008 (% Boys achieving Level 4+)

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Indian Boys

All pupils (Boys and Girls)

White Boys

Pakastani Boys

Bangladeshi BoysBlack Caribbean Boys

Black African Boys

KS2 English Trends 2003-2008 (% Girls achieving Level 4+)

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Indian Girls

All pupils (Boys and Girls)

White Girls

Black Caribbean GirlsBangladeshi GirlsPakistani Girls

Black African Girls

KS2 Maths Trends 2003-2008 (% Boys achieving Level 4+)

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% L

evel

4+

Birmingham average (all pupils)

White Boys

Bangladeshi Boys

Black Caribbean Boys

Pakistani Boys

Black African Boys

Indian Boys

KS2 Maths Trends 2003-2008 (% Girls achieving Level 4+)

35

45

55

65

75

85

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% L

evel

4+

Birmingham average (all pupils)

Black Caribbean Girls

Bangladeshi Girls

White Girls

Pakistani Girls

Black African Girls

Indian Girls

GCSE & Equivalent 5A*-C Trends for Boys at risk of underachieving (2007 England average for each group in brackets)

26%28%

23%

39%

43%

51%53%

43% 43%45%

50%

54%

57%

61%

33%

37% 37%

46%45%

51%

60%

22%

25%

20%

31%

28%

38%40%

45%

50%51%

57%59%

62%

66%

13.50%

10%

13% 13% 13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Birmingham average (National 62%)

Bangladeshi Boys (National 52%)

Pakistani Boys (National 47%)

Black Caribbean Boys (National 42%)

White FSM Boys (National 31%)

Looked After Children (National 13%)

Changes in the percentage of pupils achieving 5+A*-C grades 2003-2008 (Boys at risk of underachieving)

40%

28% 28%

43%

37%

25%

61%

53%

49%

61% 60%

40%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Black African Black Caribbean White/BlackCaribbean

Bangladeshi Pakistani White FSM

2003

2008

Birmingham LA average 2003

Birmingham LA average 2008

GCSE & Equivalent 5A*-C including English and maths trends for Boys at risk of underachieving (2007 England average for each group in brackets)

16%

18%

25% 25%

27%26%26%

28% 28%

37%

35%

38%

25%26%

28%

30%

34%35%

14%

11%

17%

12%

18% 18%

35%

37%

39%

41%42%

45%

6%

9%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Birmingham average (National 45%)

Bangladeshi Boys (National 36%)

Pakistani Boys (National 33%)

Black Caribbean Boys (National 27%)

White FSM Boys (National 15%)

Looked After Children

Changes in the percentage of pupils achieving 5+A*-C including English & maths 2003-2008 (Boys at risk of underachieving)

13%

16% 16%

26%25%

14%

26% 26%27%

38%

35%

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Black African Black Caribbean White/BlackCaribbean

Bangladeshi Pakistani White FSM

20032008

Birmingham LA average 2008

Birmingham LA average 2003

GCSE & Equivalent 5A*-C Trends for Girls at risk of underachieving (2007 England average for each group in brackets)

52%

54%

60%

62%

64%

44%

47%

54%

59%60%

49%

55%

60%

63%

59%

50%

54%

59% 59%

61%

72%

29%

33%

37%

39%

47%

50%51%

57%

59%

62%

73%

78%

68%

74%

48%

66%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Black Caribbean Girls (56%)

Bangladeshi Girls (64%)

Black African Girls (61%)

Pakistani Girls (60%)

White/Black Caribbean Girls (55%)

White FSM Girls (35%)

Birmingham average Boys & Girls (59%)

Changes in the percentage of pupils achieving 5+ A*-C grades 2003-2008 (Girls at risk of underachieving)

44% 43%

58%

50%

29%

73%

78%

68%

74%72%

48%

52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Black African Black Caribbean White/BlackCaribbean

Bangladeshi Pakistani White FSM

2003

2008

Birmingham LA average 2003

Birmingham LA average 2008

GCSE & Equivalent 5A*-C including English and maths trends for Girls at risk of underachieving (2007 England average for each group in brackets)

33%

30%

41%

46%

37%

24%27%

30%

37%35%

37%

34%36% 36% 36%

45%

34%36% 35%

40% 40%

59%

67%

63%65%

67%

14%

17%19% 20%

22%

27%

35%37%

39%41% 42%

45%

37%

49%

53%

71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Indian Girls (67%)

Bangladeshi Girls (46%)

Black Caribbean Girls (38%)

Pakistani Girls (42%)Birmingham average Boys & Girls (45%)

White/Black Caribbean Girls (40%)

Black African Girls (45%)

White FSM Girls (20%)

Changes in the percentage of pupils achieving 5+A*-C including English & maths 2003-2008 (Girls at risk of underachieving)

33%

24%22%

34%

29%

19%

37%

49%

45%

53%

45%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Black African Black Caribbean White/BlackCaribbean

Bangladeshi Pakistani White FSM

20032008

Birmingham LA average 2008

Birmingham LA average 2003

2008 GCSE and Equivalent 5+ A*-C inc GCSE English and Maths by Ethnic Group, Gender and Free School Meals

18% 19%

27%29% 29%

33%

38%

45%

39%

45% 46% 47%50% 48% 50%

51%

57%59%

74% 75%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Wh

ite

B

Bla

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arb

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Wh

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Pak

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B

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.B

Ban

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Pak

ist.

G

Bla

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Pak

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B

Ind

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B

Ban

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B

Ban

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Pak

ist.

G

Ban

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Wh

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G

Ind

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B

Ind

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G

FSM FSM FSM FSM NoFSM

FSM FSM FSM NoFSM

FSM NoFSM

FSM NoFSM

NoFSM

FSM NoFSM

NoFSM

NoFSM

NoFSM

NoFSM

Pupils eligible for Free School Meals Pupils not eligible for Free School Meals

Boys Girls

LA Average

SUMMARY (EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT)• Compared to the national average, attainment on entry to school in Birmingham is much lower. More children in

Birmingham have English as an additional language and more children in Birmingham are economically disadvantaged. These factors represent real challenges to raising achievement.

• There is evidence to show that the achievement gaps are closing, although not yet consistently across each Key Stage. Gaps remain widest in the early years.

• Significant improvements have been made at Key Stage 4. For example, between 2003-2008:

Black Caribbean boys’ 5A*-C improved by 25 points to 53% (5A*-C with E&M by 10 points to 26%)

Black Caribbean girls’ 5A*-C improved by 34 points to 78% (5A*-C with E&M by 25 points to 49% )

Bangladeshi boys’ 5A*-C improved by 18 points to 61% (5A*-C with E&M by 12 points to 38%)

Bangladesh girls’ 5A*-C improved by 16 points to 74% (5A*-C with E&M by 19 points to 53%)

Pakistani boys’ 5A*-C improved by 23 points to 60% (5A*-C with E&M by 10 points to 35%)

Pakistani girls’ 5A*-C improved by 22 points to 72% (5A*-C with E&M by 17 points to 46%)

White boy’s on FSM 5A*-C improved by 15 points to 40% (5A*-C with E&M by 4 points to 18%)

White girl’s on FSM 5A*-C improved by 15 points to 48% (5A*-C with E&M by 8 points to 27% )

While these improvements are not sufficient to close the gaps completely (particularly in 5A*-C including English and maths for boys), they do represent significant progress.

Birmingham’s Brighter Futures Strategy To Improve Outcomes for Children and Young People

• Clarity about outcomes• Guided by high quality evidence on children’s well-

being (Epidemiology)• Logic model approach (how activities relate to

outcomes), Outcomes Activities Investment Outputs

• Informed by robust evidence on what works• Rigorous evaluation• Developmental: conception>early

years>primary>secondary>post-16>adulthood

CHILDREN’S WELL-BEING SURVEY

Purpose:• To find out how well Birmingham children are

doing on the ECM outcomes and where we need to focus attention to improve outcomes.

• To use the results to plan and prioritise services.

• To monitor outcomes over time to see if they are improving as a result of interventions.

GROUP ANALYSIS

• Data from c15,000 children and young people matched to their gender, ethnic group, free school meal eligibility, special educational needs, looked after status, postcode.

• To identify any significant differences in outcomes for different groups of children to inform targeted interventions.

• To support equality impact assessment- inclusive and fair service delivery/reduce inequalities in outcomes.

CLOSING THE GAPS IN:

• PHYSICAL HEALTH

• BEHAVIOUR & EMOTIONAL HEALTH

• FEELING SAFE

• ENJOYING AND ACHIEVING

• SOCIAL LITERACY

• JOB SKILLS

PHYSICAL HEALTH

• DRINKING, SMOKING, DRUGS

(Note: Most of the young people completing the 12-18 questionnaire were age 12-16)

% of children who say they drink at least once a week (12-18)

0

5

10

15

20

25

Boys Girls

Birmingham average

% of children who say they smoke (12-18)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Boys Girls

Birmingham average

% of children who say they have used drugs in the last month (12-18)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Male Female

Birmingham average

MENTAL HEALTH

• BEHAVIOUR PROBLEMS

• EMOTIONAL PROBLEMS

% of those with significant behaviour problems (7-11)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Birmingham average

% of children with significant behaviour problems (12-18)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Birmingham average

% of those with significant emotional problems (7-11)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Birmingham average

% of those with significant emotional problems (12-18)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Birmingham average

FEELING SAFE

• FEELING SAFE AT SCHOOL

• FEELING SAFE WHERE YOU LIVE

% of those who are quite often bullied (7-11)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Birmingham average

% of those who are quite often bullied (12-18)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Birmingham average

% of those who feel safe in their neighbourhood all of the time (7-11)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Birmingham average

% of those who feel safe in their neighbourhood all of the time (12-18)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Birmingham average

ENJOYING AND ACHIEVING

• ENJOYING SCHOOL

• LITERACY AND NUMERACY

% of those who enjoy going to school most of the time (7-11)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Birmingham average

% of those who enjoy going to school most of the time (12-18)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Birmingham average

SOCIAL LITERACY

• BEING KIND AND CONSIDERATE OF OTHERS

% of those who are kind and considerate of others (7-11)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Birmingham average

% of those who are kind are considerate of others (12-18)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Birmingham average

JOB SKILLS

• GOING TO COLLEGE

• GOING TO UNIVERSITY

% of those who think it is important to get a qualification from college (12-18)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Birmingham average

% of those who think it is important to go to university (12-18)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Birmingham average

SUMMARY: OTHER ECM OUTCOMES• Gender differences

Girls more likely than boys to:enjoy going to schoolbe kind and considerate of othershave significant emotional problemssay they are quite often bulliedfeel unsafe in their neighbourhood Boys more likely than girls to:have significant behavioural problems

• How to improve girls’ safety and emotional well-being. Boys’ behaviour and social literacy?

• Needs of mixed race pupils- do they feature in school improvement strategies? (Emotional Health, Enjoyment of School, Post-16 participation)

• Enjoyment of secondary school and anticipated Post-16 participation is lowest for White boys and girls- how to engage?

• Alcohol & smoking – higher on average for White and mixed race boys and girls – targeting health education programmes.