Reut Methodology Day

Relevancy Gaps

Closing Relevancy Gaps

Identifying Relevancy Gaps

Why Relevancy Gaps aren’t closed

How Relevancy Gaps form

MindsetDivergent

Reality

How Societies choose to Fail or Succeed

Hostile NeighborsDecreased support from Friends

Climate Change Environmental Damage

How Society Responds to Problems

The Case of the Greenland Norse

Climate Change: Little Ice Age

Hostile Neighbors: The Innuit

Arrive 1000 CE; Disappear 1450

Approx 5,000 people in 2 Settlements

Communal, violent hierarchical & conservative

More European than Europe

Trade Disengagement from Europe

Environmental Damage

Inability to Adapt

Why Societies CollapseDon’t Anticipate

No prior experience

Reason by false analogy

Don’t Perceive

Distant Managers

Some problems imperceptible

Slow Trend Concealed

Don’t Attempt to Solve

Status Quo supports deeply held value

Rational Bad Behavior

Group Denial (Work Avoidance)

Dislike those who complain

Don’t Solve (Perceive & Attempt)

Efforts too little too late

Solution exists but unviable

Beyond present capacity to solve

Preventing Predictable Surprises

Problem Appears

Worsens

Significant Costs to Solving(Benefits delayed)

Tendency to Maintain Status Quo

Vocal Minority vs. ChangeDefinite cost in present;

uncertain future cost

Cognitive

Generally Optimistic

Overly Discount Future

Reluctant to change status quo

Organizational

Structural barriers 2 effective info processing

Political

Political Losers Mobilize

Scanning / Integration + Learning Failures

Aviation Security New Security Oversight expensive

Travel Delays

Airlines Block Reform 9.11

Lanir: Between Situational + Fundamental

Situational:Lack of Information

Cognitive Organizational Political

Fundamental:Incompatibility of

self perception with reality

Where does it meet Reut?

Don’t Anticipate

Don’t Perceive

Don’t Attempt to Solve

Don’t Solve (Perceive & Attempt)

Cognitive

Organizational

Political

Why Relevancy Gaps aren’t closed

MindsetDivergent

Reality