THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Closing the Gaps, by 2015Closing the Gaps, by 2015Goal and Target ReviewGoal and Target Review

April 21, 2005April 21, 2005

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Why Change the Participation Why Change the Participation Goal and Targets?Goal and Targets?

Apply current percentage targets to Apply current percentage targets to updated population projections updated population projections

2005 target for African-Americans and 2005 target for African-Americans and 2010 target for Whites have been 2010 target for Whites have been surpassedsurpassed

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Population projections for 2015 have Population projections for 2015 have increased greatly for Hispanicsincreased greatly for Hispanics

Prior Projection Prior Projection

25,900,000

11,600,000

2,900,000

10,300,000

New ProjectionNew Projection

28,000,000

11,800,000

3,000,000

11,900,000

Total

White

African-Amer.

Hispanic

Source: Texas State Data Center

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

How did the Board set the How did the Board set the Participation Goal?Participation Goal?

Texas demographicsTexas demographics– Educational attainment and incomeEducational attainment and income– Population projections by ethnicityPopulation projections by ethnicity

Comparisons of participation ratesComparisons of participation rates– As a percent of total populationAs a percent of total population– As a percent of 19 year olds, etc.As a percent of 19 year olds, etc.

Participation rates by ethnicity in TexasParticipation rates by ethnicity in Texas

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Income is Strongly Correlated to Income is Strongly Correlated to Educational LevelsEducational Levels

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Less thanHigh School

High School Bachelor'sDegree

Graduate orProfessional

Degree

Texas United States

Source: US Census 2000 Microdata Sample

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Highest Educational Levels Vary Highest Educational Levels Vary Texas - 2000Texas - 2000

48%

9%

15%

30%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Bachelor's or

Higher

Asian Hispanic African-American White

Source: US Census Bureau

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Median Household Income Varies Across the State -

2002

$26,500 to $31,500$31,501 to $40,000$40,001 to $44,000

HighPlains

NorthwestTexas

Metroplex

UpperEastTexas

CentralTexas

SoutheastTexas

GulfCoast

SouthTexas

WestTexas

Upper Rio Grande

Source: US Census Bureau

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Median Household Income - 1999 Median Household Income - 1999 by Race/Ethnicity of Householderby Race/Ethnicity of Householder

$47,162

$29,305 $29,873

$50,049

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

White African-American

Hispanic Asian

Source: Texas State Data Center

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Overall Minority Participation Rates Overall Minority Participation Rates Continue to Lag, But Are IncreasingContinue to Lag, But Are Increasing

7.8%8.7%8.9%

11.1%

8.6%

12.1%

17.2%15.5%

16.3%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

White Hispanic African-American

1990 1999 2003

15-to-34 Population

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

A one percent increase would have been an A one percent increase would have been an additional 220,000 students in fall 2003additional 220,000 students in fall 2003

Participation Rate of Total Population - Fall 2003 (Fall 2000)

4.3%

4.8%

5.0%

5.3%

5.3%

6.3%

7.2%

7.3%

8.3%

5.3%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Source: Chronicle of Higher Education, Almanac

New York

Michigan

California

Illinois

TEXAS

Pennsylvania

Ohio

Florida

New Jersey

Georgia

(6.1%)

(6.1%)

(4.9%)

(5.0%)

(5.6%)

(5.6%)

(4.8%)

(4.1%)

(4.5%)

(4.0%)

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Committee QuestionsCommittee Questions

How have other states increased How have other states increased participation at such a fast pace?participation at such a fast pace?

– Financial aid?Financial aid?

– New programs?New programs?

– Lower population increases?Lower population increases?

– Policy changes?Policy changes?

Should the overall participation target be Should the overall participation target be raised above 5.7%?raised above 5.7%?

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Closing the Gaps TargetsClosing the Gaps Targets

20002000 20042004 20152015

TotalTotal 5.0%5.0% 5.3%5.3% 5.7%5.7%

African-Amer.African-Amer. 4.6%4.6% 5.2%5.2% 5.7%5.7%

HispanicHispanic 3.7%3.7% 3.9%3.9% 5.7%5.7%

WhiteWhite 5.1%5.1% 5.6%5.6% 5.7%5.7%

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Texas White 18-21 Population is Texas White 18-21 Population is expected to declineexpected to decline

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

White African-Amer Hispanic

2000 2005 2010 2015

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Why Change Success Targets?Why Change Success Targets?

Independent institutions’ awards are now Independent institutions’ awards are now includedincluded

Associate’s degrees awarded have surpassed Associate’s degrees awarded have surpassed targettarget

African-American successes in 2004 exceed African-American successes in 2004 exceed 2005 targets2005 targets

Allied health and nursing awards surpassed Allied health and nursing awards surpassed targetstargets

Alternative teaching certification awards now Alternative teaching certification awards now includedincluded

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Texas Lags in Bachelor’s DegreesTexas Lags in Bachelor’s DegreesCompared to Undergraduate EnrollmentCompared to Undergraduate Enrollment

Colleges and Universities – 2001-02 (1996-97)

6%

8%

9%

9%

10%

10%

11%

12%

13%

8%

9%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

PennsylvaniaNew York

OhioMichigan

New JerseyU.S. Average

GeorgiaIllinois

TEXASFlorida

California

Source: Chronicle of Higher Education, Almanac

(13%)

(6%)

(8%)

(8%)

(8%)

(11%)

(9%)

(9%)

(9%)

(11%)

(12%)

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Texas Lags in Associate Degrees as Texas Lags in Associate Degrees as Compared to Two-Year EnrollmentCompared to Two-Year Enrollment

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

14%

17%

19%

6%

10%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Two-Year Colleges – 2001-02 (1996-97)

New YorkPennsylvania

FloridaOhio

New JerseyU.S. Average

MichiganIllinois

GeorgiaTEXAS

California

Source: Chronicle of Higher Education, Almanac

(20%)

(18%)

(14%)

(12%)

(10%)

(10%)

(11%)

(8%)

(13%)

(6%)

(6%)

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Committee QuestionsCommittee Questions

Graduation rates for transfer students?Graduation rates for transfer students?

Need for certified teachers in specific Need for certified teachers in specific fields?fields?

– Math and scienceMath and science

– ESLESL

Increases at the BSN or ASN level? Increases at the BSN or ASN level?

Information on private high school Information on private high school graduates?graduates?

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Community College transfer students graduate Community College transfer students graduate at rates similar to university studentsat rates similar to university students

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Transfers University students

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Why Change Research targets?Why Change Research targets?

Original target was based on 1998 dataOriginal target was based on 1998 data

2015 target was surpassed by FY 20022015 target was surpassed by FY 2002

Target expressed in monetary terms does Target expressed in monetary terms does not indicate whether Texas has increased not indicate whether Texas has increased relative to other statesrelative to other states

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

1998 data was used to set target: By 2000 the 2007 target had been surpassed

(in millions of constant 1998 dollars)

$0

$400

$800

$1,200

$1,600

THECB 04/2005THECB 04/2005

Committee RecommendationCommittee Recommendation

April – June 2005 - Continue study of the April – June 2005 - Continue study of the targetstargets

July 2005 – Draft of new targets to the July 2005 – Draft of new targets to the Coordinating Board and distributed for Coordinating Board and distributed for commentcomment

October 2005 – Coordinating Board October 2005 – Coordinating Board consideration of new targetsconsideration of new targets