climate & water supply

8/14/2019 Climate & Water Supply

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A change in the weather is sufficient torecreate the world and ourselves - Marcel Proust, A La Recherche du Temps Perdu


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Brief history of climate change on earth Analysis of the global warmingnarrative

What does this narrative mean today? A theology of global warming

Theopolitical Exegesis


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Misconceptions

Policy is not theological Science is objective; everything else

being subjective is less true


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Normal temperature for the earth is very hot and little or no permanent ice. As life has evolved, the earth has trended

toward cooler temperaturesClimate history is that with little or no warning, there have been dramatic

shifts in temperature, storminess, and precipitation, both on regional andglobal scales*

Doug Macdougall , Frozen Earth: The Once and Future Story of Ice Ages (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2004), 141, 227.


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Climate is essentially a precariouslybalanced non-linear system that lurchesbetween very different states of coldness,

dryness, wetness, and warmth.*There are many interacting climate processes that cause a warm world of

flowing water and verdant growth tobecome a cold world of dry winds andarid landscapes.*

John D. Cox , Climate Crash: Abrupt Climate Change and What It Means for Our Future (Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press, 2005), 65, 183.


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The earths climate system containspowerful embedded amplifiers that can make it highly sensitive to relatively

small forcings. - Dan Schrag,geochemist, Harvard University*

Generally, more carbon in atmosphere =

higher temperatures & interglacials;lower carbon in atmosphere = lower temperatures & glacials

*Fred Pearce , With Speed and Violence: Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change (Boston: Beacon Press, 2007), 136.


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Greenhouse Gases

Let visible light and ultravioletradiation from the sun reach the earthssurface, but absorb some of the infrared

radiation reflected back to space, thusheating the earths atmosphere


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Without the global warming effect of thegreenhouse gas CO2, the surface temperature of the earth would be ~0

degrees F, rather than its present averageof 59 degrees F

Without the cooling effect of photo-

synthesis, especially the phytoplankton in the oceans, the earth would overheatand be uninhabitable by humans


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Carbon dioxide i.e. burning fossil fuelsMethane - 20X impact of CO2 e.graising cattle, rice farming, melting permafrost, rising ocean temperatures

Soot - forest clearing in Indonesia, Brazil; cooking fires in India;industrial pollution

Anthropogenic Carbon


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Falls in arctic causing more rapid

melting of snow and glaciersbackscatters radiation into space and re-radiates heat back to earths surface

changing atmospheric circulation cooling effect delays the monsoon rainsin Asia

Soot (brown haze)


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Carbon Examples

Venus - too much carbon in theatmosphere (97% CO2)produces extremegreenhouse effect with 870 degree F heat(hot enough to melt lead).

Mars - too little carbon and atmosphere produces a weak greenhouse effect & near freezing constant global temperatures


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Aristotles idea of species ~350 BCE

Maybe ~55 million species todayMaybe ~ 1 billion species have ever livedsince life began on earth. The life cycle

of most species leads towards extinction Today, we are presently living through amass extinction; begun 30,000 BP

Life Extinctions


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Todays tree of life based on analysis of DNA shows that vast majority of life on earth is unicellular: the Archaea,

Bacteria and Eukarya (~80 phylla, 2004)that help catalyze almost all thechemical reactions on the earths surface

Humans carry a set of ~1,000 species of microbes, representing 3 million genes(the human genome = 18,000 genes)


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These microbes help us digest food, produce vitamins, and protect againstinfection. The human body has 10 trillion cells but contains 100 trillion microbial cells that live in & on us

a gram of soil has a billion microbes

a liter of seawater contains a billion microbes*

*Jonathan Shaw, The Undiscovered Planet: Microbial science illuminates a world of astounding diversity, Harvard Magazine (November-December 2007), 44-53.


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History is Complex

Climate is the result of biological,geological, chemical, and physical processes interacting in non-linear ways through time

Microbes have played a defining role in the development of the earths climate


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For example, just one small change in ocean circulation caused by driftingcontinents can change weather patterns

that causes rock erosion that alters soil formation that produces changes in flora or fauna that triggers reactions in the cells that causes changes in howDNA coded proteins are expressed thatultimately impacts climate by creatingniches for new life that raise O2 levels*

*Michael Boulter , Extinction: Evolution and the End of Man (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002), 147.


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Dynamic History

13,700 million years ago (mya or Ma-megaannum) the universe that we are in is formed and time starts. We reallyhave no idea why this universe begins

12,700 mya - gravity has causedclumps of matter composed of hydrogen and helium to ignite creating the stars


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5,000 mya - our sun emerged as one of a

new generation of stars in the MilkyWay galaxy. Our sun is located about two thirds of the way out on the radius of a disk that slowly orbits the galacticcenter - a large black hole


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4,600 mya - earth formed around sun;

one of nine planets circling one of 100billion stars in one of 100 billion galaxies in the universe; no atmosphereon earth. Just a large, dead rock; no

seasons; constant temperature (cold)


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4,500 mya - earths moon formed fromdebris of a bolide impact, determined byrocks brought back from Apollo Projectmoon-walks; the impact tilts the earth 23 degrees bringing seasons; cometscrashing on earth bring large amountsof ice that form seas; atmosphereemerges: methane, hydrogen, ammonia,and CO2


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750 - 590 mya - Snowball Earth period where the earth experienced four pulses of cold that produced massive glaciation

and a global mean temperature of -74degrees F that froze large portions of theearths oceans; interspersed by warmer interglacial periods, extensive volcanism

590 mya - very hot earth with 20X theCO2 than todays climate; acid rain


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590 - 575 mya - beginning of complexlife on earth; multicellular organisms where cells became specialized in function for the benefit of the entireorganism


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500 mya - volcanic eruptions cool theearths oceans, spawning gigantic plankton blooms that send a pulse or

burst of oxygen into the atmosphereapproaching todays levels (the Steptoean Positive Carbon IsotopeExcursion - SPICE event)

490 mya - plants begin to colonize theland (the Ordovician radiation)


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250 mya - Permian-Triassic (P-Tr)extinction (the Great Dying)killedmuch of life on earth. During this period

there was severe volcanism in Siberiaand a large meteorite also hit the earth.Climate changed from a humid temperate to a hot semi-arid climate and

the seas became anoxic due to methanereleases, killing 96% of marine species, 70% of land vertebrates; 90% of plants

Tony Hallam , Catastrophes and lesser calamities: The causes of mass extinctions (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004), 148-51.


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200 mya - Triassic-Jurassic (T- J)extinction. At least half of the species

living on the earth at this time were wiped out, opening an ecological niche for dinosaurs to evolve. May haveoccurred due to climate changes from

oceanic methane clathrates released to the atmosphere


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80 mya - very warm earth, oceans are 170 meters (558 ft.) higher than todays oceans


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65 mya - the Cretaceous - Tertiaryextinction (K-T catastrophe) where a 20-km in diameter meteorite (bolide

impact)hits earth off the Yucatan peninsula causing a firestorm acrossmost of North America that in turn caused climate change that ended life

for dinosaurs, ammonites, and muchmarine life on earth as the oceansbecame anoxic (lasts 10,000 years)*

*Michael Boulter , Extinction: Evolution and the End of Man (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002), 39, 89.


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58 mya - volcanos stretching for 3,000miles begin erupting as tectonic plates

connecting N.A., Greenland and Europebegin to pull apart (complete 28 mya)

55 mya - methane clathrate release in

oceans causes short-term, rapid warming; lot of CO2, more than today


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50 mya - greenhouse-gas levelsdiminish and cooling resumes. Thismay have been affected by the collision of India, an island at this time, with Asia forming the Himalayas. The weathering of this new mountain rangeon earth took CO2 out of the atmosphere.


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40 mya - hight of tropical heat in Europe; numerous cycles of tropical heat

45-35 mya35 mya - Gulf Stream begins asseparation of Europe from N.A. complete;

N. Atlantic and Arctic oceans no longer separate, Cycles of global cooling begin


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35 mya - no ice at poles; Antarctica is

forested and temperate, equator similar temperature to today

25 mya - first modern ice sheets occur

in Antarctica


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12 mya - Europe unusually warm;bananas growing in Denmark

10 mya - African and European tectonic plates push Morocco into Spain closing Strait of Gibraltar; all water in Mediterranean Sea evaporates due tohigh temperatures; grass prairie firstappears in N.A. and Asia


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8 mya - lower levels of CO2 in atmosphere; first bipedal apes appear

3 mya - ice ages begin by ice-sheet formation in the Arctic

2 mya - 5 species of Homo in east Africa


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600,000 BP (Before Present)- Volcanicexplosion of granitic magma formingYellowstone caldera in Wyoming,Montana alters regional & globalclimate

465,000 BP (Before Present) - Homosapiens appears in NE Africa; firstHomo sapiens fossils from 135,000 BP


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100,000 BP - abrupt start of most recentice age with a 2.4 mile high ice sheet over northern Europe, another covered the

whole of Canada; sea levels were 400 feetlower than todays levels

42,000 BP - Homo sapiens migrate from

northeast Africa through Middle East turning right into Asia or left intoEurope


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40,000 BP - modern man reachesEurope, already inhabited by

Neanderthal man. Both groups of Homomade tools, beautiful bone and ivory pendants, lived in caves, and buried their dead. Homo sapiens also painted

cave murals and drilled long bones tomake flutes


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30,000 BP - beginning of Anthroceneextinction that is still in process;Neanderthal man becomes extinct; half

of large mammal species in Europeremoved by modern humans between 30,000 and 15,000 BP

homo sapiens in Europe selected for whiteskin to make more Vitamin D in colder climate and Vit-D deficient cereal diet


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16,000 BP - interglacial warming periodbegins

15,000 BP - ice sheets were reforming asit grew much colder

14,500 BP - abrupt warming causesarctic melting and sea levels to rise 65 feet in 400 years


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13,000 years ago a comet exploded over Canada, leaving no crater, wiping out the woolly mammoth and decimating the first known human culture in North America


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11,800 BP - Younger Dryas cold period produced rapid glaciation, over a decadeor so, in northern latitudes

11,000 BP - Homo sapiens crossed still frozen Bering Strait into Alaska; rapidextinction of many families of large

mammals ensued. For example, atbeginning of ice ages N.A. had 34 families of mammals, now there are 10


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8,200 BP - the ocean conveyor shutsdown after Lake Agassiz (600 mile lakestretching from Minnesota to

Ontario)drains into the North Atlanticlowering temperatures 28 degrees in northern hemisphere. In the northern tropics, the world was much drier,

windier, and dustier while in thesouthern tropics, there was dramatic warming in Antarctica


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8,000 BP (6100 BCE)- Abrupt change to warm climate due to Storegga landslide,a 180 mile stretch of coastal shelf thesize of Iceland that collapsed off Norwayinto the North Sea melting frozen methane in that portion of the ocean,causing rapid global warming

*Michael Boulter , Extinction: Evolution and the End of Man (New York: Columbia University Press, 2002), 187.


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7,000 BP (5000 BCE)- Water frommelting glaciers in Europe flowed intoMediterranean Sea which in turn overflowed through Bosporus,inundating freshwater lake Euxine, forming what today is the Black Sea (is this Noahs flood remembered?)


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5,500 BP- sudden (over ~20 years)aridification of a wet, highly productive,lush Sahara

Huge quantities of Bodele dust (organicmatter and minerals from extinct LakeMegachad in central Sahara) crosses the

Atlantic and fertilizes the Amazon.Dust from the Sahara is why the Amazon rainforest is so lush today


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5,250 BP - Scorpian Tableau, the

earliest written recorded history of man discovered in 1995 depicts King Scorpian (the first unifier of ancientEgypt) leading the defeated king of

Nagada to public execution


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4,200 BP (2,200 BCE)- near-globalmegadrought; Akkadian empirecollapses; mass migrations from Egypt.

In Palestine: All the urban centers wereabandoned, and the cities, which hadexisted for several hundred years,remained only as large heaps of ruins.

They were not resettled until nearly ahalf a millennium later (Arie Issar,Israeli hydrologist)*

*Fred Pearce , With Speed and Violence: Why Scientists Fear Tipping Points in Climate Change (Boston: Beacon Press, 2007), 187.


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140 CE - deforestation of the unbroken forest of cedar (the cedars of Lebanon), fir, juniper and oak covering the hills

and mountains of the Fertile Crescentcomplete; causing soil erosion andsalinity and altering regional climate.These forests had been harvested since

2600 BCE but today, this area is mostlyscrub and barren land; only 1,700hectares of cedar forest remains


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412-424CE - Augustine writes the Cityof God where he contrasts the ecologicalcity of God, characterized by justrelations between God, neighbor, and thecreated order versus the city of mancharacterized by structural injustices of political economy brought about by sin:humankinds tendency toward rivalryand competition for power and control


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536 CE - a volcano erupted the size of theTambora event in 1815 that changed theclimate of the world temporarily. Froman eye witness account of Michael the Syrian: "The sun was dark and its darknesslasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light wasonly a feeble shadow the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes."


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800-1200 CE- Medieval Warm Period(Medieval Climatic Anomaly) in N.

HemisphereMegadroughts e.g. persistent droughtsbetween 862 to 1300 in Americas

contributed to collapse of Mayan and Anasazi civilizations


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Medieval Warm Period (800-1,200)caused reduced harvests in N. Europe which, along w/ overpopulation resulted

in the Great Famine of 1315-22 Also may have helped rats and flees to thrive, paving way for Black Death (the

Great Death) in 1347-52 killing 1/3 of the population of Europe and ~70million people worldwide


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1570-1850 CE - Little Ice Age in Northern Hemisphere caused famines throughout Europe

1570s - extreme drought over much of western U.S. and northern Mexico

1580s - extreme drought over much of western U.S. and northern Mexico


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1600 - catastrophic eruption of Huonynoputina volcano in southern Peru alters climate of the earth

1800 - global population is around 900million people

1815 the year without a summer - theyear after the eruption of Tambora in Indonesia, crops failed from India toEuro e and N. America


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1883 - Krakatoa volcanic eruption temporarily changes the climate of theearth

1896-7 - 20 million people die fromhunger; drought due to El Nino events;colonial policies produce famine in Indiaand Africa while Europe and N. Americaremain well-fed


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1908 - Tunguska Event. The collision of a ~65 ft in diameter NEO (near earthobject) in Siberia flattened one-half

million acres (2,000 sq. km.) of pine trees and killed all animals in the area

1918-19 - Swine flu pandemic kills

20-25 million people worldwide. In theU.S. death rates due to influenza go from 164.5/ in 1917 to 588.5/100,000


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1923-1932 - 10,000 banks in the U.S.collapse; October 29, 1929 New York Stock Exchange crashes

1930-38 - the Great Depression -unemployment 10%-40% in most cities

1930s - H.G. Wells predicts that the fateof humans is now the fate of the planet; the modern industrial era is the source of the ecolo ical crisis


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1934, 1936, 1939-40 - the black blizzards (dust so thick that it

concealed the sun for days at a time) of the Dust Bowl Drought in the U.S.caused by a combination of moderate toextreme drought that covered as much as

80% (July 1934) of the U.S. and poor soil management of agricultural lands


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1938 - Guy Stewart Callendar, a steam technologist, submits a paper to the

Royal Meteorological Assoc. in London linking the burning of fossil fuels withan increase in atmospheric CO2. This is the first paper making this link. His

theory was largely disregarded by thescientists of his day


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1960s - the Great Salinity Anomalydumps 8 billion acre-feet of freshwater into the Arctic through the Fram Strait

between northern Greenland and Spitsbergen; probably from an unusually large discharge of ice from the Arctic Ocean in 1967

1970s - rising CO 2 emissions trips keyclimate oscillations; a new climate state


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1972 - George Kukla, a professor atColumbia University who studies

glacial deposits in Soviet Union writes President Nixon a letter predictingabrupt climate change from mansactivities. Nixons administration does

not respond; believes the entire issue isunimportant


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1980 - widespread drought in the U.S.costs $48.4B (2002$) and 10,000deaths


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1985 - British scientists discover ozonehole over Antarctica; an area 27 million sq. km in the stratosphere w/ reduced

concentrations of O3 between Aug.-Dec. 1987-89 - drought covers 36% of theU.S. Farming on marginally arable

lands and pumping of groundwater to the point of depletion exacerbated impact; $60B in damages, 7,500 deaths


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2003 - European heat wave; Europeshottest summer in 500 years kills35,000 people; 104 degrees F during dayand 86 degrees F at night.

2003 - Rain on snow event in October on Banks Island in Canadas NorthwestTerritories causes the death of 20,000musk-ox


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By 2005 - evidence of global warmingunassailable: melting Siberian permafrost, loss of Arctic sea ice, collapseof Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctic, rapidmelting of Greenland ice sheet, massive flooding from melting Himalayan glaciers, rising sea levels, higher ocean temperatures, global migrations of many species toward the poles, etc.


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Between 1980-2006, the U.S. sustained 70 large-scale weather disasters costinga total of $560B (2002$). 61 of theselarge-scale disasters occurred since 1988 with a total cost of $430B

2006 - moderate to extreme droughtcovering 20% of U.S. in Januaryincreased to 52% by July


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August 2007 - the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was -5.28 for central Tennessee. Only lower PDSI was

in 1839 (-5.43). Next closest was 1708(-4.28)

From the cores, most persistent drought

in central TN was 1564-73; most severedrought was 1940-46 w/ -3.56 PDSIbetween 1941-43


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From the paleoclimate record, it appears that the current mode of drought variability during recent times is not

representative of the full range of drought scenarios

The current mode of drought (past 100

years) appears relatively wet and free of regular and persistent droughtconditions that were normal in the past


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For example, paleoclimate data fromcores taken at Moon Lake, North Dakotaindicate regular and persistent droughtsbetween 200-370 CE; 700-850 CE; and 1000-1200 CE, more severe than anydroughts experienced in the 20thcentury


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By 2008, earths population is 6,500million

By 2050, earths population may be 9,100 million; additional growth willoccur in less developed countries from 5.3 billion today to 7.8 billion in 2050;40% of multicellular species may goextinct


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1. QUESTIONS?


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Two Climate Modes

Glaciated = 440 billion tons of carbon dioxide in atmosphereInterglacial = 660 billion tons of

carbon dioxide in atmosphere


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Last ice age - 440 billion tons of carbon

dioxide in atmosphere As climate warmed, 220 billion tons of CO2 were released from oceans intoatmosphere By 1700s, 660 billion tons in atmosphere

GW = Carbon Cycle


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Burning fossil fuels over the past 200years has added another 220 billion tons of CO2 to atmosphere

The earths atmosphere presentlycontains 880 billion tons of CO2

935 billion tons of CO2 is the estimatedupper limit before a final tipping point to an undetermined climate state isreached


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U.S. and Australia = 5.5 tons of carbon/year per person

European countries = 3 tons per person

China = 1 ton per person

India = 0.5 ton per person


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Rising global temperaturesExtreme weather

Ecosystem changes on a global scale

Triple Footprint


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Alternative End States(1) Biological pump in ocean removes

excess carbon from atmosphere - actually the biological pump is presently slowingdue to warming oceans(2) System will slowly change, noabrupt changes will occur - contrary toexperience over past 600 million years


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(3) Present climate is close to a threshold

beyond which strong positive (runaway) feedbacks take hold, initiating abruptclimate change to a new state - more like the early days on planet earth


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Carbon Storage Presently, there are ~44 trillion tons of

carbon dioxide dissolved in the waters of the earths oceans As the oceans cool, they can take upmore carbon because phytoplankton draw more CO2 out of the atmosphere As the oceans warm, phytoplankton die


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In the presence of bacteria, rocks erode i.e. fix carbon from the atmosphere ~1000x faster than otherwiseThis cools the atmosphere, but as the

atmosphere cools, bacteria die, erosion slows, and the atmosphere warms again

Feedbacks - Bacteria


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Feedbacks - PlantsOver time, plants have been extremelyefficient at fixing carbon from theatmosphere to keep the planet cooler than otherwise Some 7 trillion tons of plant carbon has

been stored beneath the earths surface for 10s of millions of years as fossil fuels.


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As much as 7 trillion tons of carbon isstored as frozen methane clathratesbeneath the ocean bed

Additionally, trillions of tons of carbon are stored as methane in the permafrostbogs of Siberia, northern Europe,Canada, and Alaska and in the earthssoils


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Changes in the shape of the earths orbitaround the sun; eccentricity - 100,000year cyclechanges in the tilt of the earths axis;inclination - 41,000 year cycle

Solar Radiation Change


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Changes in the wobble in the axisaround which the earth rotates: precession - 19,000 - 23,000 year cycle

Taken together, the changing orbitalshape, planetary tilt, and rotational wobble make little difference to theamount of solar radiation reaching theearth, but alter the strength of seasonality e.g. cold summers = ice age


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a.k.a. the thermohaline circulation or themeridional overturning circulation the conveyor brings warm water from the tropics to the arctic where it is cooledby bitter winds blowing off Canada and

Greenland increasing the density of the water, which sinks, and heads back to the tropics; a 1,000 ear round trip

The Ocean Conveyor


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the ocean conveyor distributes warm water from the tropics to the polar regions, it mixes the oceans, and aids in the exchange of CO2 between theatmosphere and the oceans

the ocean conveyor has two modes: on and off; switching between these twomodes often abruptly - affected bychanges in the North Atlantic


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Abrupt cooling in the arctic with periodicity of ~8,000 year cyclesThese events cause massive glaciation in N. Europe and North America

These events cause drying in other partsof the world

Heinrich Events


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A periodicity or pulse in climate with a

cycle between 1,300 and 1,800 years with temperatures moving from cold to warm and back again repeatedlyTemperatures can change by 3.6 to 18degrees F within a decade beforerecovering after a few hundred years

Dansgaard-Oeschger


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ENSO EventsEl Nino (the Christ child)- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a periodic reversalof normal ocean currents, winds, and weather systems in the tropics thatredistributes heat and energy in thehottest part of the earths oceans aroundIndonesia (the firebox), which may be 13 degrees F warmer


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For thousands of years, El Nino hascycled every 6 years. Since mid-1970s,El Nino has been cycling every 3.5 years and has been getting muchstronger with two 100-year strength ElNinos occurring since 1982

The El Nino event lasts 12-18 months, then goes into sharp reverse, called LaNina


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During El Nino, Indonesia and Australia dry out, Indian monsoons aredisrupted, either more rains or drought

in Africa, it brings drought to the Amazon rainforest, damps down hurricane formation in the N. Atlantic,brings drought to the N. American southeast and flooding along the Pacificcoasts


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After El Nino, this is the second mostimportant climate cycle on earth todayThe oscillation is a change in relative air pressure that strengthens or weakens the

prevailing westerly winds that circle the Arctic

Arctic Oscillation


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For the past 35 years, the ArcticOscillation has been in a positive phase that has caused warming in theNorthern Hemisphere

Global warming causes cooling in theearths stratosphere that hugelyintensifies the Arctic Oscillation


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The Southern Hemisphere annular mode

(SAM) affects air pressure between polar and non-polar air that drives westerly winds sweeping around Antarctica Strengthening SAM is due to cooling of the stratosphere, raising temperatures 5 degrees F in Antarctica since 1960

SAM


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Ice-Albedo Feedback

As ice melts, the earths albedo(reflectivity) declines, causing moreheating of the earths surface, whichcauses the earths average temperature to

rise, which causes more ice to melt; an example of positive feedback


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Hydroxls (HO)Hyroxls combine w/ pollutants (other than CO2) so they precipitate out in rain low hydroxls enable high concentrationsof toxins in Arctic environmentsCarbon dioxide from fires reduce amountof hydroxls; excess pollution may shutdown hydroxls ability to clean air


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Results

The total number of natural disasters worldwide now average 400-500 a year,up from an average of 125 in the early 1980s directly affecting more than 250million people on the planet annually

Oxfam International , Climate Alarm: Disasters increase as climate change bites (Oxfam Briefing Paper 108, November 25, 2007), 2, 6, 8.


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DroughtsWorsening droughts around the world

are becoming more prevalentIn the 1970s, less than 15% of the earth was in drought (very dry conditionsdefined as -3 or less on the Palmer Drought Severity Index); today about30% of the earth is regularly in drought


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Many climate models forecast droughtover increasing amounts of the earth:On a global basis, drought events areslightly more frequent and of muchlarger duration by the second half of the 21st century relative to the present day: probability of moderate drought (D1)

goes from 25% to 50% of earths surface;severe drought (D2) from 8% to 40%;extreme drought (D3) from 3% to 30%.


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In Australia, over the past decadedecreases in precipitation have been 15-20% annually, producing a record 500-year drought in parts of Australia

In Greece, a 100-year drought in 2007 scorched 10% of its forest cover in amonth-long fire

In U.S. Midwest, Lake Superior hasdro ed to its lowest ever recorded levels


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In the southwestern U.S., near 500-year droughts are causing massive wildfiresand loss of drinking water

The Wests biggest river, the Colorado with an average flow of 13 million acre- feet a year in 1950, from 1999-2003averaged 7 million acre-feet, worst than the 1930s dust-bowl years; in 2002 the flow was just 3 million acre-feet.


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There is the potential for 300-400 year-long drought conditions to return to theU.S. western states under climateconditions that are currently developingdue to global warming

The Southeastern U.S. may see more frequent, severe droughts with theincreasing severity and frequency of ElNino events


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Severe drought means less water supply.For example, the 2007 NOAA-classed D4Drought brought Sewanee within 2

months of running out of primary water supply from its two reservoirs,ODonnell and Jackson, and only 11-15 months of emergency water supplyremaining in Lake Dimmick, littledifferent than Atlantas situation


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Drought and rising temperatures willimpact soil formation and soil moisture, which in turn will impact global foodsupply and disease tolerance

The implications of all present globalclimate models forecasts are for shortfalls in global food supply

1.2 billion of 4.92 hectares of agri-cultural land have eroded since 1 45


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The real forcings from global warming

are changing rainfall patterns, soil formation and microbe healthThe time it takes to make an inch of soil varies from 160 yr. in heather-covered Scotland to 4,000 yrs. under adeciduous forest in Maryland

Real Forcings


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Estimates

Best-guess estimates on the impacts

from global food shortages, pandemics,and wars caused by anthropogenicabrupt climate change effects on water availability and soil fertility range from a morbidity of a few hundredmillion to a few billion humans


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2. QUESTIONS?


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3. WHAT DOES THEGLOBAL WARMING

NARRATIVE MEAN FORUS TODAY?


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Techno-fix: Contraction

Establish a program of rolling annual targets for global emissions so as toensure that the atmosphere never exceeds

set limits on CO2


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Convergence

apportion the annual global emissionsset under contraction each year basedon national population sizeThe costs of buying and selling CO2

pollution licenses would provide capital for investing in decarbonizing economy


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De-carbonizingMore efficient use of energy

switch to low and no carbon fuelscapturing and sequestering carbon emissions

inventing new methods of storingenergy


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While Mitigating Risk

Improve global humanitarian system todeliver the flexible aid that people needi.e. cash transfers, given the increasingrisks of disasters due to climate change

Reduce vulnerability and risk of disaster due to climate change


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Reducing Vulnerability Aid should be used to build and protect the livelihoods and assets of the poor Disaster risk reduction (DRR) measuresneed to be linked to climate changeadaptation measures that builds localresponse capabilitiesDo future development right


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Unsustainable Development

Todays climate changes i.e. global warming are a direct consequent of anthropogenic unsustainabledevelopment of the earth


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Focusing on the symptoms of global warming without addressing its cause:unsustainable development is like treating the patients cold symptoms,but ignoring the cancer that is killingher


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The end result of todays anthropogenicunsustainable development is not

coastal flooding and rising temperatures due to atmospheric Co2loading. These are just symptoms. Theend result of unsustainable development

may be extinction


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Sustainable Development

The only right development issustainable development, everything elseleads to extinctions: (1) by changingand erasing environments that supportlife; (2) by introducing alien species that wipe out existing populations; (3)by generating changes in climate thatkill life and speed-up extinctions


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If the only right development is

sustainable development, then:Lets define sustainabilityLets define development


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sustainability is a systems concept.What it connotes is that the systems

that support life, life that includes life for homo sapiens on earth, aresustainable at some level, or carryingcapacity, beyond which the life-support

systems collapse


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all systems will collapse, given certain forcings

System forcings interact with other system components to produce systemcollapse

anthropogenic carbon loading of theearths atmosphere is ultimately asystem forcing that may lead to collapse


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anthropogenic carbon loading of theearths atmosphere alters climate that in turn negatively impacts soil formation

and water availability Soil formation rates and water availability are the two primary

forcings that have led to collapse of civilizations in human history


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Both Aristotle and Plato wrote about howland use had degraded soil in Bronze Age Greece*

Extensive deforestation and plowingrapidly degraded the rich soils of centralItaly and N. Africa during Roman times*

The soils of central Mexico were severelyde raded b Ma an armin ractices*

*David R. Montgomery , Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations (Berkeley: University of California Press,2007), 51, 57-65, 77.


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By the 1970s, the U.S. was loosing 4billion tons of soil each year...enough for

a freight train filled with this soil tostretch around the earth 24X*

At this rate of soil erosion, the U.S. may

loose all its topsoil in ~100 years**David R. Montgomery , Dirt: The Erosion of Civilizations (Berkeley: University of California Press,2007), 173.


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Actions that promote sustainability

occur on the community, ecosystem or global level Actions that promote sustainabilityeither reduce forcings that may lead tosystem collapse or improve systemrobustness

What Does It Look Like


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There are no panaceas or quick fixes

Even the goal to reduce carbon loadinghas nuances e.g. short-term carbon loading that is actually an investmentin future massive carbon reductions isgood vs. carbon loading for purelyconsumptive reasons


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DevelopmentThe problem with development is reallya metrics problemOur measurement system is faultybecause we have generally pushedexternalities to the earths biosphere

Anthropogenic atmospheric carbon is an externality; only now accounted for


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Thus, we claim we have turned a profit when in reality we have only consumedreal economic wealth in the system

We claim we have grown our economyas measured by GDP, when all we havedone to create this growth is immiserate

large numbers of humans in thedeveloping world


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Our markets presently price productsand services in dis-economic ways e.g.oil is priced at $100/bbl. when itsreplacement cost is >$300/bbl.; gasolineis priced in the U.S. at $3/gal. when itssystem cost (cost that includesexternalities) is closer to $8/gal. - thecost of gasoline in Europe


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Markets typically will not and cannotcorrect prices to include externalities on their own. Adam Smith understood this point; many capitalist democracies and totalitarian governments around the world do not understand this point

One role of government is to correctstructural defects in market systems so that prices reflect economic reality


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Probably the single most important thing that an individual can do to promote sustainable development todayis to vote for leaders, on all levels, whoget it and will promote marketmechanisms that reflect the real prices of our actions and measure the realeconomic results of our activities


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Probably the single most important thing that countries can do today is to

eliminate the conditions for and prospects of nuclear war. A nuclear conflagration would add more carbon to the atmosphere than all the activities of

man since the industrial age began


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Today, the U.S. and Russia are thegreatest proliferators of nuclear weaponsand weapons-usable HEU in the world

In 2006, the world spent $1,232B on military and $7B on peacekeeping

But today, the highest probability of use

of these weapons is by nuclear terrorists to begin a nuclear exchange between countries


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Anthropogenic atmospheric carbon loading to the atmosphere from nuclear war would directly alter the earthsclimate system to the point that earthlife systems may be no longer able tosupport the earths present population

This is by far the most important andconsequential short-term climateinitiative to consider


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Terrorism A politics of fear has caused the U.S. toallocate ~$1T towards counter-terrorism policy since 9/11Climate change is a much larger threat to the National Security State

Fear is no more useful for climate policyas it has been for counter-terrorism


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The most important medium term(10-20 yrs.) climate initiative is the re-allocation of capital from unsustainabledevelopment to sustainable developmentactivities

Institutions that promote business-as-usual capital allocations must bechanged or torn down. Changes must becommunity-wide and global


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Remove perverse subsidies for non-sustainable development, fossil fuels,nuclear, agriculture that depletes soil

Invest in conservation e.g. increaseCAFE standards to >100 mpg by 2030

Capital required = $1-3 trillion over

10-20 yr. This is not cost will require shifting $$ from defense


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Individually, instead of allocating $30,000 in capital for a new vehicle,invest $30,000 to move your residence towards lower life-cycle carbon use

Halve the miles driven or flown annually and reduce goodsconsumption expenditures by half.Every $ of goods consumption represents embedded carbon


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Otherwise, we are tilting at windmillsand todays present forcings may

ultimately lead to system collapse And, the system that collapses may be those life-support systems on earth that

enable humankind to live here


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In summary: Sustainable development= responding to todays planetaryemergency by reengineering complex,brittle, interconnected systems that are transitioning from high EROI (EnergyReturn on Investment) energy sources to transform them into complex adaptivesystems capable of shifting to other thermodynamic states w/o experiencingdisruptive nonlinearities


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Almost all systems are interconnected.These interconnections become brittle if accumulating stresses have eroded asystems resilience over time Systems are resilient if, under stress,

they can reorganize themselves andcontinue to function. Complex systems that can do this are called adaptive

Systems Engineering


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All adaptive complex systems go through cycles of change e.g. growth,collapse, regeneration, and then growth

again, but w/ differing thermodynamic flows and interconnections novelty

When systems breakdown they loose

complexity and cease to function w/in normal ranges and sometimes collapse


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In the West (1.2 billion people), this

involves rethinking how systems areinterconnected to reduce brittleness, de-carbonizing outputs, conserving inputs,and adding resiliency to systems, given

rapidly declining EROI energysubsidies

Reengineering Systems


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In the Global South (5.3 billion people,soon to be 7.8 billion) this involvesdeveloping basic life support systemsamidst failed economies and massiveenvironmental degradation, w/osubsidies from cheap oil (no longer 100:1 EROI oil; this oil was used-up by the West, essentially subsidizingeconomic growth in the West for past 200 yrs.)


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Existential - What me worry? The problem is not really realConsequential - OK, so the problem isreal, but so what, it doesnt affect me fatalistic - OK, the problem is real, butit is too big for me to do anything about.I dont want to think about it.

Denial as Response


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It all looks beautifully obvious - in therear view mirror. But there are situations where [one] needs great imaginative power, combined with disrespect for the traditional current of thought, todiscover the obvious - Arthur Koestler*

*Arthur Koestler, The Sleepwalkers: A History of Mans Changing Vision of the Universe (London: Hutchinson & Co., 1959), 48 quoted in Thomas Homer-Dixon, The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization (Washington, DC, Island Press, 2006), 128.


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The past is not over The fierce urgency of the time that isnowIt is up to you... and all of us to work together towards a future worth living in

End or Beginning?


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3. Questions?


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4. A THEOLOGY FORMITIGATING THEEFFECTS OF GLOBAL

WARMING


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Two hundred years ago the nations of the industrialized world joined together in the struggle against slavery and the

gross injustices of early industrialism(child labor, etc.)

What bound the opponents of slavery

and injustice of early industrialism was a shared moral vision of justice


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The New Testament concept of person-hood: the central good of human life is

relationality to God expressed in worshipand spirituality, and relationality toother persons [and to the created order],expressed through an ethic of love and

care and mutual responsibility**Michael S. Northcott, The Environment and Christian Ethics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001), 205.


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The liturgy of the Eucharist is a radicalanamnesis: (1) it disrupts presenthistorical time and opens a new space in

opposition to conventional thinking;(2)it anticipates the future realization of a new society; (3) it keeps alive thesubversive memory of Christs past

confrontation with, and triumph over the imperial powers of the day**William T. Cavanaugh, Torture and Eucharist (Challenges in Contemporary Theology; Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishers, 1998), 277, 280.


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A utilitarian world devoid of God withonly instrumentalist value is an imaginative invention of post-Enlightenment thinking. The modern concept of environment inherits thecentral myth: reclaiming a Garden of Eden of timeless convenience andunbounded personal happiness resulting from self-interest and consumption of mass-produced goods and services


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Could we imagine that global warmingis the fruits of humankinds slavery to

the gods of consumerism, technologicalprogress, and accumulation of goods?

Of forgetting the real value of life,

community, justice, and the sacred?


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Imperial globalization of markets produces economic growth that leads the peoples of the earth towards material progress, human liberation and peace

The Collective Lie


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The TruthThe byproduct of the present globalcorporate economy is: collapse of ecosystems, immiseration of billions of humanity, and global warming asnormal costs of doing business

Actually, less democracy, less economicsecurity, less liberty and freedom


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Collapse of Hegemony? Another shoah (Holocaust) managed bybureaucrats just doing their job?Talk of God always carries with itsocioeconomic-political talk*The life of a prophet is always difficultbecause he/she is attempting to speak truth to power*

Walter Brueggemann , Like Fire in the Bones: Listening for the Prophetic Word in Jeremiah (Patrick D. Miller, ed; Minneapolis: Fortress Press, 2006), 199, 201.


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Affected Ignorance

Aristotle called truthful speech, parrhesia

In parrhesia, one who speaks the truth isalso one who is prepared to witness to the truth by living in service to the truthand in solidarity with others seeking the truth*

*Michael S. Northcott, A Moral Climate: the ethics of global warming (London: Darton, Longman and Todd, 2007), 40.


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the individual is autonomous and self-authorized to pursue individual well-being, security and happiness we can consume resources w/outrestraint or limit

it is OK to use force, coercion, or even violence to secure our security

Moral Climate


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Rich countries also transfered to poor countries neurotoxins and gender shifters e.g. toxaphene, mercury, PCBs; the effects of global warming e.g.droughts, loss of arable land,inundation of seacoasts, rapid spread of mosquito-born pathogens; collapse of local socioeconomic systems; war


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As in biblical times, empires live bynumbness (and blindness) concerning the human cost of the policies of the powerful

Might our task be to penetrate thisnumbness with compassion, putting an end to denial and indifference andmake visible by our speech the pain andsuffering that envelopes the world*

*Walter Brueggemann, The Prophetic Imagination, 2nd Ed (Minneapolis: Fortress Press, 2001), 91.


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For in suffering made audible and

visible, hope springs eternalFor beginnings emerge where previouslynone seemed possible


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He shall defend the needy among the people; he shall rescue the poor and crush the oppressor. He shall live long as thesun and moon endure, from onegeneration to another. He shall comedown like rain upon the mown field, likeshowers that water the earth. In his time

shall the righteous flourish; -Psalm 72:4-7a


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It is forgotten that mediocrity willalways be majority and the courage of authenticity minority..... a will to beconverted that is not afraid to lose prestige or privilege, or to change a wayof thinking... -Archbishop Oscar

Romero


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Could it be that unrestrainedcommercialism under capitalism isequally as dangerous as centralized planning under communism?

Dont both systems of being-in-the- world rely on placing instrumentalist value and utility on life itself?


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Private vehicles: 500M today; 2Bglobally by 2030Cause 1.2M deaths, 50M injuredannually Pollution from autos costs US $100Bannually; just beginning to account for CO2 emissions as pollution (~$1T?)

Luxury Emissions?


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Cultural Blindness

Doesnt our culture of luxury rely on a profligate use of energy?Doesnt this structure lead to a culture of injustice, and of social and

environmental exclusion?


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More BlindnessThe science of global warming isuncertain. As if we should live our lives

according only to what we know withcertainty. This is not the role of science Science and technology will save us from destruction wrought by global warming; geoengineering will save theda


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Big Questions

What is life for?What is its ultimate purpose andmeaning?

Whom or what do we worship?


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Leadership ChallengeGlobal warming is ultimately a moral problem i.e. Do we continue Unfettered

Industrial growth and unrestrainedcapitalism? Policy requires choices for allocatingcapital towards moral solutions thataddress deep questions of how shall welive


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These are not questions that science can provide answers to

Issues are raised that technology doesnot provide solutions to

This is a discourse for theology: whatrelationality w/ one another, God, and the planet brings hope and redemption?


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Might a first step toward redemption be to acknowledge our own responsibility for sustaining these structures of sin that enslave us by threatening human freedom and the ecological well-being of the planet?

Structures of Sin


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What are the alternatives to utility andinstrumentalist value determining policy?Where moral values are not merelyexpressions of individual preference and

interest An ethics not justified by consequences

Theopolitical View


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Can we build a moral and ethical resolve to care for the earth and the species that

inhabit it (including us!) that is non-instrumentalist and non-utilitarian that is shared by citizens, governments,and corporations?


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For doesnt our present calculus of instrumentalist value and utilitymerely cloak real structures of injustice

and numbness to the plight of the poor, the oppressed, and the earth we inhabit?

And provide false witness that somehow

all this makes sense and is rational in someway? Isnt this all just a construct?


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As Moses, Buddha, Plato, Aristotle,Confucius, Christ, and Mohammed taught: could politics be the way in which persons are formed as moralagents to live in love together withneighbor, self, God, and the createdorder?

By politics - concern for the shape of the polis: human community in history


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Therefore, keep awake - for you do notknow when the master of the house willcome, in evening, or at midnight, or atcockcrow, or at dawn - Mark 13:35 Truth of the polis is movement toward an

authentic life of freedom for all creation;salvation occurs in community

Sleepers Awake!


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The Resurrection

The Christian belief is that it is Godsintention is to redeem all of creation from the sufferings of this present time (Romans 8:18-27)


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4. QUESTIONS?

climate & water supply

Documents