climate variability and climate change in the u.s.-mexico border region upper san pedro partnership...
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Variability and Climate Change
in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region
Upper San Pedro PartnershipTechnical Committee Meeting
Cochise College – Sierra Vista, Arizona – July 26, 2007
Gregg GarfinClimate Assessment for the SouthwestInstitute for the Study of Planet EarthUniversity of Arizona
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Atmospheric Circulation: Winter
H
Mike Crimmins, University of Arizona
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Atmospheric Moisture: Winter
DRY
MOIST
Mike Crimmins, University of Arizona
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Atmospheric Circulation: Winter
H
Mike Crimmins, University of Arizona
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Atmospheric Circulation: Summer
BermudaHigh
H
Mike Crimmins, University of Arizona
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Atmospheric Moisture: Summer
DRY
MOIST
Mike Crimmins, University of Arizona
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75° N
60° N
45° N
30° N
15° N
0°
15° S
30° S 30 ° E
90° N
30 ° W 60 ° W 90 ° W 120° W 150° W 180° W 150° E 120° E 90 ° E 0 °
PPacificDDecadalOOscillation
AAtlanticMMultidecadalOOscillation
EEl NNiño SSouthern OOscillation
Persistent Circulation Influences on Western US
Slide courtesy of Julio Betancourt, USGS
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• Redistribute energy, moisture• Persistent changes: Duration 1-3 years• Recur every 2-7 years
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
warm
cool
cool
warm
~ ~
Slide courtesy of Greg McCabe, USGS
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El Niño: Winter Effects U.S.• Increased ephemeral channel recharge
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/winter25%25.gif
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La Niña: Winter Effects U.S.
• Drought circulation pattern
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/winter25%25.gif
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
Average SOI (Jun-Nov)
Win
ter
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
No
v-A
pr)
(i
nc
he
s)
El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
Climate Division 7Southeastern Arizona
1895-2002
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Pacific Decadal Variability
• Discovered in 1990s• Occurs every 20-30
years• Mechanism likely
– ENSO– Kuroshio Current– Aleutian Low
Courtesy of N. Mantua – University of WashingtonMantua et al., 1997 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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91 84
82
8779 78
78
Negative PDO
113117
131
115123 119
120
Positive PDO
AZ PDO (Oct.-Sept.) Precipitation % Average
Based on Maxwell and Holbrook, NWS Tucson
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/teleconnect/teleconnect.html
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http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/teleconnect/teleconnect.html
Shift toLow Index?
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Positive AMO Phase
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - AMO
Slide courtesy of Greg McCabe, USGS
• West: Warm, dry, high pressure• Associated with 1950s and late-1500s droughts
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Pacific negative + Atlantic positive
.
McCabe et al., 2004 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
.
Drought Frequency % (25 = expected)
high drought frequencylow drought frequency
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OBSERVED CHANGES
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Global Energy Balance
From http://www.bom.gov.au
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http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/09.htm
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380
Most rapid change in the last 10,000 years
280
CO2 Changes
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/02.htm
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http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html
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Western Regional Climate Center
June-May Temperature
Cochise County
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Western Regional Climate Center
June-May Precipitation
Cochise County
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Courtesy of Noah Knowles, USGS
Trends in Nov-Mar Snowfall Fraction
More Rain, Less Snow More Snow, Less Rain
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Dramatic Warming Episodes
Losses of 30-60%
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Stewart et al. 2005 Journal of Climate
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Stewart et al. 2005 Journal of Climate
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Stewart et al. 2005 Journal of Climate
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PROJECTIONS
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GCM
• Models, based on physics– Atmosphere, ocean
• Some processes must be estimated, scaled to large regions
• Processes tuned and validated using historical data
• Models driven by forcing factors– Solar, volcanic, GHGs, aerosols (particles)
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Scenario descriptions
Global integration Regionalism
Economic emphasis
A1B Balanced energy
A2 fragmente
dA1FI Fossil-fuel Intensive
A1T high-Tech renewables
Environmental emphasis B1 B2 local
IPCC 3rd Assessment Report
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Data: IPCC 4th Assessment
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IPCC 4th Assessment: Working Group I, Chapter 11, Regional Projections
Annual Temperature: End of 21st Century
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Annual Precipitation: End of 21st Century
IPCC 4th Assessment: Working Group I, Chapter 11, Regional Projections
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Atmospheric Circulation: Winter
H
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Atmospheric Circulation: Winter
H
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A1B
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A1B
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A1B
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A1B
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Heat Waves
Diffenbaugh et al., 2005Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
Increased Length of Average Heat Wave (days)
4 models and A2 “Business as Usual” emissions scenarios in a Regional Climate Model
2071-2095Minus1961-1985
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Diffenbaugh et al., 2005Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
Annual Evapotranspiration
A2
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Diffenbaugh et al., 2005Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
Increased Fraction of Extreme Precipitation
A2
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What does global warming have in store for El Niño?
• Latest word: Study comparing 20 different climate models
• No clear consensus!• Models still do not
simulate El Niño well…• “Best” models showed
smallest changes
More La Niña-like
More El Niño-like
Collins, 2005, Climate Dynamics
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Climate Change Water Challenges in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region
Increased temperatures: very likelyDecreased precipitation: likely
Potential direct impacts and concerns:• Decreased surface water supply reliability• Increased evaporation• Reduced minimum flows for fish• Earlier peak flow timing• Greater likelihood of extreme events: drought, flood
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Incorporating Climate Into Streamflow Prediction
• Statistical models (PPT, SWE, Streamflow)• Historical data are assumed to be a sample of future events
• Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP)• Conceptual hydrologic models
• Soil moisture accounting, Snow model• Current basin initial states• Multiple meteorological inputs
• TEM, PPT, Estimated Upstream flow• Probabilistic distribution of future events, daily data aggregated to seasonal water volume
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Franz et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2005
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Incorporating Climate Into Streamflow Prediction
• Force models with data adjusted for seasonal outlook terciles, or ENSO, PDO, AMO phases• Assumptions
• Historical data are representative of future states• Accurate understanding of processes and their sensitivities to climate variations
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Dennis Lettenmaier, University of Washington
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Gregg GarfinClimate Assessment for the SouthwestInstitute for the Study of Planet Earth
www.ispe.arizona.edu/climashttp://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/