climate matters: developing australia’s approach to climate risk … · 2011. 9. 29. · proposal...

Proposal forCooperative Research Centre for

Climate Risk Technologies

Climate Matters: Developing Climate Matters: Developing Australia’s approach to climate Australia’s approach to climate risk managementrisk management

Roger StoneRoger Stone and colleagues.and colleagues.

Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Queensland Department of Primary Industries and FisheriesFisheries





Introduction:

•Climate impacts vs applying knowledge of climate prediction to modify actions (ahead of impacts),

• Key steps needed (include participatory approaches with users/researchers),

•Examples (from the sugar industry),

•Need for a national co-operative research centre.



The climate The climate challengechallenge

Enormous year-to-year climate variability

We need to be mindful of longer-term climate change

Example of direct links between climate variability and key climate driver (annual variation in the SOI)

- annual Australian wheat yield (N Nicholls)

- cost of insurance catastrophe claims in Australia (Stone, 1999)

-20

-10

0

10

20

1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Year

Ann

ual S

OI

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Whe

at y

ield

Cost of Catastrophe Claims in AustraliaEvents with total cost exceeding AUD40m in 1996 dollar terms

plotted against the SOIData: Swiss Re (Stone, 1999).

year

n events soi summer

1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 19930

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

0

5

10

15

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

events

av sumr SOI

Australian annual wheat yield and the SOI

General Challenge: Climate Forecasting has General Challenge: Climate Forecasting has no valueno value unless it changes a management unless it changes a management decisiondecision

Management decisions Management decisions require management require management

tools… tools…

… that open ‘doors of … that open ‘doors of opportunity’ to turn climate opportunity’ to turn climate science into commercial science into commercial climate risk technologiesclimate risk technologies





More succinctly:

There is much work on: impacts of climate variability on rural and other sectors

Little work on: applying knowledge of climate prediction to modify actions ahead of likely impacts (Hammer et al, 2001).



The next (key) steps:

•provision of scenario analyses ,

•Use simulation with credible systems models,

•Must be a key aspect of the overall engagement and learning process,

• Need for interaction among climate and other researchers, systems analysts, and decision-makers ( ‘all the players learn’). (Participatory R&D).

•Need to better connect agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction,

• Professions involved in decision-making need to take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts.



Using climate information to better manage Using climate information to better manage a whole systema whole system

Delivering benefits across the value chainDelivering benefits across the value chain

The CanePlant

Sugarcane Production

Harvest & Transport

Raw Sugar Milling

Marketing & Shipping

•• Best use of scarce/costlyBest use of scarce/costlywater resourceswater resources

•• Better decisions onBetter decisions onfarm operationsfarm operations

•• Improved planningImproved planningfor wet weatherfor wet weather

disruptiondisruption•• Best cane supplyBest cane supply

arrangementsarrangements-- crush start andcrush start and

finish timesfinish times

•• Better schedulingBetter schedulingof mill operationsof mill operations-- crop estimatescrop estimates-- early seasonearly season

cane supplycane supply

•• Better marketing decisions basedBetter marketing decisions basedon likely sugar qualityon likely sugar quality

•• More effective forward sellingMore effective forward sellingbased on likely crop sizebased on likely crop size

•• Improved efficiency of sugarImproved efficiency of sugarshipments based on supplyshipments based on supplypattern during harvest seasonpattern during harvest season

Planting case study

– When to plant?– What variety to plant?– Herbicide action

Harvesting case study

– When to start?– Which paddocks should be harvested

early/late?

Herbert Case StudyHerbert Case Study

Key Decision PointsKey Decision Points

Irrigation ManagementIrrigation Management

Location: Bundaberg– generate longterm daily rad, tmax, tmin

APSIM Simulation Experiment– crop simulation package used to determine

optimum timing (scenario analyses)– initial irrigation of 24mm– four irrigations of 44 mm– two soil types

Does the timing of the first irrigation vary with SOI phase?

When is the optimum time to apply limited irrigations?When is the optimum time to apply limited irrigations?



Participative R&D in action. Tully Consultative Group Sugar/climate project(Courtesy Yvette Everingham, JCU)



Grower's Decision – Darren Reinaudo 22 April 2002

Climate in transitional stage so I keep a watchful eye on the climate updates

I take special interest in the sea surface temperatures (SST) particularly in the Nino 3 region.

There is currently some indications of warming in the Nino 3 region which hints at a possible El Nino pattern developing

Replant would be kept to a minimum

Harvest drier areas earlier, even if CCS maybe effected.

We don’t run the farm based solely on climate forecasts, it’s just another tool to consider when making decisions.



Grower's Action – Jeff Cantamessa

"Climate-forecasting information was used during the 2000 planting season when climate forecasts predicted a high probability of high rain. By unconventionally planting 50ha on a ridge instead of a traditional furrow, Cantamessa was able to establish a crop on that country for the first time in three years. Saved $80,000 by not having to replant.

In the 2001 planting season the climate forecast said there was a probability it would be dry, so we planted into a furrow to conserve soil moisture"



Yet, most businesses (rural and other) Yet, most businesses (rural and other) do not have management structures do not have management structures that incorporate climate variability that incorporate climate variability and climate change in their risk and climate change in their risk management systemsmanagement systems



Program 1 Enhancing climate science & predictive systems

Commercialisation, marketing & business systems

Program 5 Building human and institutional capacity & resilience

Program 2

Climate risk technologies for rural industries

Program 3

Climate risk technologies for

resource and environmental

industries

Program 4

Climate risk technologies for

service industries

Need to enhance this capacity nationally

Programs needed to deliver the R&D outputs that have been defined by ‘users’

THE SCOPETHE SCOPE

Weather

Climate change b b b

Drought periods b b b

Climate Science b b

Agriculture b b b

Rural b b b

Policy Informing b b b

Technology Informing b b b

Commercial benefit b b b

Climate b b b

Climate variability b b b

Non-drought periods b b b

Applications b b b

Environment b b b

Urban b b

Policy development

Technology development b bb

Public benefit b





Defining climate risk technologiesDefining climate risk technologiesClimate risk services: short term consultancies

Climate risk products: saleable decision systems/tools

Climate risk practices: actionable discoveries developed through co-learning with end users(participative research)

Climate risk training: fee paying short courses

Climate risk knowledge: Journal articles, policy informing papers, briefings, 38 PhD theses

Different technologies require different strategies for delivery/ adoption pathways



Need Outcomes Against National Need Outcomes Against National Research PrioritiesResearch Priorities

•• Strengthen Australia’s economic & social Strengthen Australia’s economic & social fabricfabric

•• Responding to climate variabilityResponding to climate variability•• Water Water –– A critical resourceA critical resource•• Overcoming soil loss, salinity and Overcoming soil loss, salinity and

acidificationacidification•• Breakthrough scienceBreakthrough science



Our VisionOur Vision

Australian businesses and communities better managing the risks and opportunities of a highly variable climate

Our MissionOur Mission

To To increase the wealth and wellincrease the wealth and well--being of Australian being of Australian businesses and communities by turning climate businesses and communities by turning climate science into applied risk technologiesscience into applied risk technologies



Conclusion:

•Huge impact of climate variability and climate change (but),

•Need for climate R&D to connect to the key decision-points in management/business,

•Need for more user-driven commercial involvement,

•Need for close interaction between climate and other researchers,

•Need for a more synergistic umbrella among players/participants,

•Participatory R&D paramount,

•Need for a strong commercial focus,

Thank youThank youThank you

Governance Structure

Incorporated Company, Limited by Guarantee

Board 8 – 10 Members• Chair• CEO (ex officio)• 6 Independent (skills based knowledge, commercial, business, legal)• 2 Partners (research investors)

AdvisoryCommittee

• Chaired by 1 of Partner Board Members

• Representatives of all Core Partners

Commercialisation& MarketingCommittee

• 2 Board Members

Education& Communication

Committee

• 2 Board Members

Finance& Management

Committee

• Chair• 2 Board

Members

ResearchCommittee

• Chair• CEO• 2 Board

Members



CustomersCustomers

Farm Harvest, Transport, Mill CatchmenFarm Harvest, Transport, Mill Catchment Marketing Policyt Marketing Policy

Scale Axis Scale Axis

Info

rmat

ion

Axi

sIn

form

atio

n A

xis

Gen

eral

Tar

gete

dG

ener

al

T

arge

ted

C l i m a t e Scale Information C l i m a t e Scale Information

•Irrigation•Fertilisation•fallow practice• land prep • planting• weed manag.• pest manag.

• Improved Planning for wet weather disruption – season start and finish•Crop size forecast•CCS, fibre levels•Civil works schedule

• Land & Water Resource Management

•Environmental Management

• Water allocation•Planning and policy associated with exceptional Events

Competitors

ShareholdersShareholders

ReinsurersReinsurers APRAAPRA

•• Crop size Crop size ForecastForecast••Early Season Early Season SupplySupply••Supply PatternsSupply Patterns--ShippingShipping--Global SupplyGlobal Supply



Regional Commodity Forecasting System

Rainfall up to date and Rainfall up to date and Climate ForecastClimate Forecast

Simple AgroSimple Agro--climatic modelclimatic model

Geographical Geographical InformationInformation

SystemSystem

Drought ProbabilityDrought Probability

5 7 9 11 13 5 7 9 11 13

5 7 9 11 13

Month

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

NSW QLD SA

VIC WA AUS

Wheat outlook for the 1999 season

10%Pred50%Pred90%PredABARE10%NoP90%NoPLTmed

Spatial StatisticsSpatial Statistics

Crop OutlookCrop Outlook

…simulateswater STRESS...

The Model - Simple water balance

Crop available Soil water

SoilDepth

EvaporationEvaporation

Run-off &Run-off & Deep drainage Deep drainage

Compare to reference yield

expectation



P1Climate Science

P2 ,3, 4Industryprograms

P5Resilience

Businesssystems

Industry engagement

Commercial venturesPublic engagement

ProductsServicesTraining

Practices

Public Knowledge

= CRC Program

= Climate risk technology

= IP management plan strategy

CRC for CRT Business Plan Concept



Currently disparate activity in

many agencies

Management Structure

Program 1

Enhancing climate science and predictive systems

Program 2

Climate risk technologies for rural industries

Program 3

Climate risk technologies for resource and environmental industries

Program 4

Climate risk technologies for service industries

Program 5

Building human and institutional capacity & resilience

Program Evaluation Committee

Business Consultancy Unit

Commercialisation, Marketing and

Business SystemsChief Executive

Board





Budget SummaryInvestment

CashIn-kindCRC Program Grant

Total Resources for CRC*

Amount (AUD $ 1,000)

10,0007,100

25,000

76,720

* includes 309 FTE contributions



Core partnersDPI&F (Qld)

Suncorp Metway Ltd.

AWB Ltd.

Energy Australia

CSIRO (SE, L&W)

ACTEW AGL

SA Consortium (SARDI,

DWLB, Univ Adelaide)

Griffith Univ

Bureau of Meteorology

WA Consortium (WA Ag,

Curtin Univ, Murdoch

Univ, Univ WA)

NSW Consortium (NSW

DPI, Univ Sydney)

Univ. of Southern Qld.

Meat and Livestock

Australia



Strong SupportingMurray Darling Basin

Commission

Australian Bush Heritage

University of Qld

MCVP

NRM&E (Project basis)

ABARE (Project

development)

Vic DPI (TBA)

Referees•UN WMO Commission

for Agricultural

Meteorology

•Rabobank

•Harvard University (JFK

School of Management)

•National Farmers

Federation

climate matters: developing australia’s approach to climate risk … · 2011. 9. 29. · proposal...

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