global climate risk

7/27/2019 Global Climate Risk

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Tony McMichael

National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health

The Australian National University

Global Climate Change:

Health Risks andPreventive Strategies


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Climate Change 101 The worlds climate is an integrated system

Many factors (forcings) influence the atmospheres

uptake and distribution of energy (heat)

Energy-trapping gases (esp CO2, water vapour, CH4)

absorb outgoing re-radiated infrared radiation This raises Earths surface temperature

Human activity is increasing the concentration of

these greenhouse gases CO2 concentration has increased from 275 ppm to

380 ppm over past century

Current trend: 450 ppm by ~2030 (= + 2o

C)


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As humanitys resource

consumption increases, World

Overshoot Day occurs earlier

each year. The first OvershootDay was Dec 19, 1987. Today,

it is on October 9 i.e., our

Ecological Footprint is almost

30% larger than the planets

biocapacity.

World Overshoot Day =

[World biocapacity /World

Ecological Footprint ] x 365

This year, in just 282 days, weconsume the biospheres entire

capacity for 2006.

www.footprintnetwork.org/gfn_sub

php?content=overshoot

1987

2006

2000

October 9, 2006


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Floods

Malaria

Diarrhoea

Malnutrition

020406080100120 0 2 4 6 8 10

Deaths (thousands) DALYs (millions)

2000 2030

Estimated deaths and DALYs attributable to climate change

Selected health outcomes in developing countries

WHO, 2004: Global Burden of

Disease

Now (2000)

Future (2030)

Total =150,000deaths/yr


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Climate Change: Relevance to

Med Students

Professional

Advice to patients and families

Awareness of shifts in differential diagnosis

Contribution to organisational policy/advocacy

Participation in research

Health sector: energy efficiency, technology choices

Citizen Participation in public debate and political decisions

Community, family and personal decisions/behaviours


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Doctors for the

EnvironmentAustralia

http://www.dea.org.au/

Poster Campaign

2005-2006


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Recent Review Articles

McMichael AJ, Woodruff R, Hales S. Climatechange and human health: present and

future. Lancet, 2006; 367: 859-69.

Website of Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) Working Gp 2:

chapter on Health Impacts (McMichael &Githeko)

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/347.htm


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Summary of Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty

of Projected Health Impacts [IPCC: draftonly]

Negative Impact Positive Impact

Very High Confidence

Effects on geograph ic rang e & incid ence of

malar ia

High Confidence

Undernutr i tion & consequent disorders

Extreme events

(heatwaves, storm s, floods, droug hts)

Il lness/death du e to (ampli f ied) poor air qual i ty

Cold -related deaths

Medium Confidence

Diarrhoeal dis eases


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Research at NCEPH

Daily temperature + air pollution mortality &

hospital admissions

Weather patterns and asthma occurrence

Daily/weekly temp and food poisoning

Climatic and environmental influences on Ross

River Virus disease

Drought severity and mental health (suicides) Modelling future changes in health risks w.r.t.

climate-change scenarios


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Variations of the Earths surface temperature

for the past 1,000 years: 1000-2000 AD

IPCC (2001): SPM 1b

Grey area showsstatisticaluncertainty range

2000


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Australia: Recent climate change [CSIRO]

Warming of 0.9o

C since 1910,mostly since 1950

Minimum temperatures have

risen twice as fast as

maximum temperatures

2005 was Australias warmest

year on record

More heatwaves, fewer frosts

More rain in north-west since

1950; less in south and east

Trend in mean temp,

1950-2005 (oC/10 yrs)

Annual total rainfall,

1950-2005 (mm/10 yrs)


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Causes of climate changein Australia

Warming since 1950 mostly due to global

increases in greenhouse gases

Rainfall trends: uncertain causes:

Increases in northwest: ? natural variability and

shift in weather patterns due to increases in

northern hemisphere aerosols

Decreases in south: ? natural variability plusgreenhouse gas increases

Decreases in east: ? increase in El Nio events

since 1975 (uncertain cause)


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131900 21002000

20

15

14

16

17

18

19Earths Average

Surface Temp (O

C)

Year

205019501860

Centralestimate:

2.5 oCincrease

Band of 1200-yr h istor ic alcl imatic var iabi l i ty

Most of warming since1950 is due to humanactions (IPCC, 2001)

IPCC (2001)

estimate:+ 1.4-5.8 oC by 2100


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Climate Change ProjectionsInstead of simple extrapolation, CSIRO uses computer models of

the climate system, driven by future emissions scenarios for

greenhouse gas and aerosols (and ozone depletion)Emission scenarios (e.g. IPCC SRES) make assumptions about

future demographic, economic & technology changes

Global CO2 Emissions Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations


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Changes in Earths temperature over past 80 m years,

and upper/lower estimates for next several centuries

Millions

of years

2100

Barrett,Nature

, 2003

Hundreds

of years

Hominins

appear

Now

Homo genus

PAST

FUTURE


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Two Important Perspectives

Health risks are influenced by both

natural climate variability and by

(human-induced) climate change Climate change typically acts in

concert with other environmentalchanges


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the distributions of both exploited and non-

exploited North Sea fishes have respondedmarkedly to recent increases in sea

temperatureover 25 years. Further

temperature rises are likely to have profoundimpacts on commercial fisheries


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Climate Change and Ocean AcidityReport by (UK) Royal Society, 30 June 2005

Increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has

significantly increased ocean acidity.

Report chairman: "Failure to cut CO2 emissions maymean that there is no place in the oceans of the

future for many of the species and ecosystems that

we know today.

(Calcification zooplankton, crustaceans, shellfish

is very sensitive to pH. These species are base of

marine food web. )


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That is, in combination:

Over-fishing

Ocean warming

Ocean acidification

are all impairing the food web and the

future productivity of ocean fisheries

Illustrates problem of emergingglobal non-sustainability


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Three Types of Study

Past FuturePresent

Learn DetectEstimation,

modelling

Empirical studies

Natural climatevariation:

- identify effect

- quantify risks

Current climatechange:- detect effects- quantify effects

- attribute burden

Future climatechange:

- estimate risks

- est. attrib burden


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Monthly cases ofSalmonella food-poisoning inrelation to monthly temperature

Australian cities, 1991-2001(modelled best-fit graphs)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

10 15 20 25 28

Temperatureo

C

Salmonellacases / month Perth

Brisbane

Adelaide

Melbourne

Sydney

DSouza, Hall, et al., NCEPH/ANU, 2003


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12-day Heatwave, 3-14 Aug, 2003Maximum Temperature, Aug 10

ExcessMortality:

France:

14,800

Italy:10,000

Spain &

Portugal:

5,000

Etc.

Total =

30,000+


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D il t t d d th


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Dailydeathrate

Average Warm Hot Extremely hot

We already have sufficient

observations within thisnormal temperature range

Daily temperature

?

c

b

a

Young adults

Old adults

Impact of Europe 2003 heat-

wave suggests graph c, notb, applies at unusually hot

temperatures

Daily temperature and deaths:what happens at temperature extremes?

Tick borne (viral) Encephalitis Sweden: 1990s v 1980s (winter warming)


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Tick-borne (viral) Encephalitis, Sweden: 1990s v 1980s (winter warming)

Changing Distribution of the Tick Vector

Early1980s

Mid-1990s

Lindgren et al., 2000, 2001

White dots indicate locations where ticks were reported. Black line indicates study region.

S hi t i i P t ti l t i i f S j i i Ji i


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Baima lakeHongze lake

Freezing zone 1960-1990

Freezing zone 1970-2000

Schistosomiasis: Potential transmission ofS japonicum in Jiangsu province

due to raised avg January temperature.[Red lines = part of planned Sth-Nth water canal.]

Recent studies in China indicate that the increase in recorded incidence

of schistosomiasis over the past decade may in part reflect recent

warming. The freeze line limits survival of the intermediate host

(Oncomelania water snails) and hence limits transmission of

Schistosomiasis japonica. This parasite has moved northwards, putting20.7 million extra people at risk (Yang, Vounatsou, et al. 2005).

Temperature change in

China from 1960s to1990s

0.6-1.2 oC

1.2-1.8 oC

Yangtze River

Shanghai


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Hurricane Katrina crossing Gulf of Mexico

Yellow/orange/red areas at or above 82F (27.8C)

the temperature needed for hurricanes to strengthen.

(NASA, 2005)


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Estimating Future

Influences of ClimateChange on Health andHealth Risks

D ht


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Drought

CSIRO estimates: By 2030, drought frequency

increases by up to 20% over

most of Australia

By 2070, drought frequency

increases by 20-80% in

south, 20-40% in Qld, 0-20%

elsewhere (except centralWA)

CSIRO Mk2 model: 2030 (high)

% change in drought frequency

+80

+60

+40

+20

0

-20

-40

+80

+60

+40

+20

0

-20

-40

Mpelasoka et al. (in preparation)


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Evidence of El Nio: 1997, 2006

Sept 15 2006 Sept 20 1997

Sept 20 1997

Note: Warm surface equatorial waters are flowing east across

the Pacific, brining rain to Central and South America coasts,

and leaving drought in Australia (and beyond)


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TRANSMISSION POTENTIAL

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41

Temperature (C)

Plasmodium Incubation period

0

10

20

30

40

50

15 20 25 30 35 40

(days)

Biting frequency

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Temp (C)

(perday)

Survival probability

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

10 15 20 25 30 35 40

(perday)

Temp (C) Temp (C)

Malaria Transmissibility: Temperature and Biology

P.vivaxP.falciparum

Also:

Pascual et al

2006

Climate Change & Malaria (potential transmission) in


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Baseline20002025 2050

Ebi et al., 2005


Zimbabwe

Harare



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Baseline 2000 20252050

Ebi et al., 2005


Zimbabwe



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Baseline 2000 2025 2050

Ebi et al., 2005


Zimbabwe

Dengue Fever: Modelling of receptive geographic


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Dengue Fever: Modelling of receptive geographicregion forAe. Aegyptiimosquito, under alternative

climate-change scenarios for 2050

Risk region for medium

emissions scenario, 2050

Darwin

Katherine

Cairns

Mackay

Rockhampton

Townsville

Port Hedland

Broome..

..

..

..

Carnarvon

.

Darwin

Katherine

Cairns

Mackay

Rockhampton

Townsville

Port Hedland

Broome.

.

.

.

..

..Brisbane.

Current risk region for

dengue transmission Darwin

Katherine

Cairns

Mackay

Rockhampton

Townsville

Port Hedland

Broome

..

..

..

..

Carnarvon. Risk region for highemissions scenario, 2050

NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM, 2003

E i t l R f


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Environmental RefugeesUN projection (2006)

By 2020: up to 50 million people

escaping effects of environmental

deterioration. order-of-magnitude increase vs. 2005

Inevitable spectrum of health risks

physical, nutritional, infectious, mental,and conflict situations

CO St bili ti & Gl b l W i


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CO2 Stabilisation & Global Warming

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

Tempe

raturechange(oC)

SRES high

SRES low

IPCC 450 ppm low

IPCC 450 ppm high

IPCC 550 ppm low

IPCC 550 ppm high

1.21.41.5

2.3

2.9

5.8

Stabilising CO2 at:

550 ppm by 2150 could limit warming to 1.5-2.9C by 2100.

450 ppm by 2090 could limit warming to 1.2-2.3C by 2100.

Note: Current level = 380 ppm (vs 275 pre-industrial)

M j D i f Ad t ti


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Major Domains of Adaptation Strengthening natural and infrastructural defences

against physical disasters

Institutional disaster preparedness

Advance warning of epidemic outbreaks (Colombia,Indonesia, etc.)

Managing water resources

Safety/quality and access Mosquito breeding

Reducing urban vulnerability Protecting energy systems (decentralisation?)

Minimising heat islands Protecting food-producing systems and food access

Data systems: Monitoring, surveillance, analysis,dissemination

Health-care system: structure, staffing, connectedness

T k f f l h lth t


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Tasks for formal health sector1. Disease prevention

2. Public education3. Disaster Preparedness

4. Early warning systems

5. Surveillance of disease occurrence and risk factors6. Forecasting of likely future health risks

7. Engage in inter-sectoral discussions & policy devt

8. Minimise greenhouse gas emissions by healthsystem infrastructure

-Resource-intensive hospitals: ~60% of public consumption

- Vic DHS: HERO; green hospitals


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